Gold today

Meskipun harga emas terkoreksi ke area trendline 4 jam, trend mayor yang masih naik dan stochastic serta CCI 4 jam mengarah ke area jenuh jual masih membuka peluang rebound mengikuti trend yang ada. Penembusan di atas resistance 1432.08 akan memicu momentum bullish yang akan mendorong harga menuju area 1444.30.

Stress Test Tidak Hasilkan Apapun?

Stress test yang dilakukan Uni Eropa (EU) terhadap institusi perbankan menuai kritikan dari berbagai pihak. Hans-Werner Sinn, kepala sebuah perusahaan riset finansial Jerman, menilai pengujian ini sia-sia dan tidak akan mampu membuka komponen pinjaman bank yang rentan default.

"Hasil tes yang akurat bisa memperlihatkan ketidakmampuan bank dalam mengelola beban hutang dalam jumlah besar," tutur Kepala IFO Munich tersebut. Hal ini terjadi karena EU hanya mensyaratkan perbankan untuk membuka nilai nominal instrumen hutangnya, bukan nilai pasar yang lebih rendah. Termasuk di dalamnya adalah obligasi pemerintah Yunani yang sedang diperdagangkan 70% lebih rendah dari nilai nominalnya. "Stress test yang baru akan sama buruknya dengan pengujian terdahulu," tegasnya.

Uji perbankan bertujuan untuk mengukur daya tahan bank-bank di EU untuk bertahan jika resesi ekonomi kembali menerjang kawasan. Pihak pelaksana, European Banking Authority, sedang mempersiapkan rangkaian tes tersebut. Hans-Werner Sinn menyerukan para pemerintah untuk menaikkan rasio ekuitas setidaknya menjadi 8% agar sistem finansial bisa lebih kebal guncangan.

Tahun lalu, hanya 7  dari 91 bank dinyatakan gagal menempuh pengujian ini. Bank dari Irlandia bahkan dinyatakan lulus, padahal beberapa bulan kemudian pemerintah memasukkan bank tersebut dalam daftar bail out internasional.

Demonstran Ingin Presiden Yaman Mundur

Demonstran kembali serukan berakhirnya pemerintahan Presiden Ali Abdullah Saleh yang telah berkuasa 32 tahun. 10.000 demonstran berunjuk rasa di Dhamar. kota yang dahulu loyal mendukung Saleh dan juga kota kelahiran Perdana Menteri, Menteri Dalam Negeri, dan Pimpinan Mahkamah Agung.
"Pergi! Pergi!" teriak demonstran, hanya dua hari setelah pendukung Saleh gelar unjuk rasa untuk mendukung pemerintah yang berkuasa kini. Protes telah meraja lela di Semenanjung Arab, dan sebagian pendukung Saleh dan pimpinan suku setempat juga membelot; ini semakin menambahkan tekanan bagi Saleh untuk mundur, tapi Presiden Yaman tetap teguh akan pertahankan kekuasaan hingga akhir masa jabatan pada tahun 2013.
Pengunjuk rasa di Dhamar melempari kantor pemerintahan dengan batu dan kini bersikeras tidak akan bubar hingga Saleh jatuh. Di ibukota Yaman, Sanaa, ribuan pengunjuk rasa telah berkemah selama berminggu-minggu; kendaraan militer dengan tentara bersenjata tersebar di jalan-jalan setelah aktivis serukan gerakan dekati istana presiden.

Ketakutan Hutang Kembali Hantui Euro

Mata uang Euro anjlok akibat ketegangan lama tentang krisis hutang sovereign Eropa kini menghantui sentimen pasar. Selama berminggu-minggu, mata uang Euro telah menantang gravitasi kecemasan seputar tekanan financial utang pada negara anggota Uni Eropa seperti Yunani, Irlandia dan Portugal.

 

Bahkan saat tampak sinyalemen negatif dari para pelaku pasar obligasi serta pasar credit default, namun mata uang Euro tidak menggubrisnya dan malah meroket ke titik tertingginya sejak awal November, hingga diatas $1.40.

 

Selama beberapa hari terakhir, mata uang ini telah dihantam lagi oleh berita downgrade peringkat utang Yunani. Sementara itu, perbedaan yield antara obligasi pemerintah Yunani dan Jerman semakin melembar, seperti juga halnya dengan Portugal. Kekhawatiran yang semakin menumpuk bahwa negara-negara tersebut mungkin terpaksa menstrukturisasi utang mereka, atau mengalami default, akibatnya ekspektasi kenaikan bunga yang dipicu oleh Trichet minggu lalu kini mulai memudar.

 

Kecemasan atas masalah utang Eropa, belum sepenuhnya hilang dari benak para pelaku pasar, dan hingga kini masih berpotensi menyeret mata uang Euro terkoreksi turun lagi.

Terpantau Euro telah anjlok sejauh ini ke level $1.3861 terhadap dollar AS, mata uang ini melorot setelah komentara dua pejabat senior zona Eropa ke media Dow Jones Newswires bahwa harapan pasar sebelumnya akan disetujuinya dana bailout yang lebih fleksibel dan solid dari para pemimpin Eropa untuk menyelesaikan krissi utang di benua itu ternyata tidak mungkin dipenuhi.

 

Di satu sisi Dollar ditopang oleh pelemahan harga minyak, setelah ada rumor positif dari Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Namun kebijakan moneter AS yang masih bersifat longgar pada dasarnya masih menjadi alasan kuat bagi para investor untuk enggan memegang dollar AS.

Saham AS Berjangka Menguat Seiring Dengan Koreksi Minyak

Saham AS berjangka mengindikasikan pembukaan yang cukup solid di bursa Wall Street hari Selasa, bersamaan dengan menurunnya harga minyak ditengah laporan bahwa Moammar Gaddafi akhirnya menginginkan perdamaian dari krisis Libya.

 

Sekitar satu jam sebelum bursa AS dibuka, indeks saham futures DJIA diperdagangkan naik 27 poin, di level 12,105, sementara indeks futures S&P500 menguat 4.50 poin ke level 1,313.25 dan Nasdaq futures bertambah 4.00 poin di level 2,328.50.

 

Saham AS sempat ditutup melemah hari Senin, akibat kekhawatiran tipisnya supply sehingga menopang harga minyak di rekor harga tertinggi baru disaat bersamaan saham teknologi terpukul oleh downgrade di sektor semikonduktor. Namun hari ini harga minyak telah terkoreksi turun didukung oleh laporan beberapa negara produsen minyak akan menambah produksi dan kemungkinan Gaddafi akan mundur.

 

Minyak mentah berjangka masih diperdagangkan di level $105.20 per barrel, turun -0.26%. Kalender ekonomi yang mempengaruhi pergerakan relative sepi namun pertemuan menteri keuangan AS Timothy Geithner dengan Presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet akan menjadi fokus pasar.

Perburuan Safe Haven Perkokoh Emas

Emas masih bergerak dalam range yang relatif sempit hingga memasuki sesi Eropa hari Selasa. Meskipun menjauh dari rekor tertinggi, Emas masih mendapatkan dukungan dari kekhawatiran geopolitik dan ekonomi makro.

Saat ini Emas ditawarkan pada kisaran $1434.95/1435.75 per ons, dan tengah berada tidak jauh dari level tinggi harian. Emas berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi baru di $1444.30 pada hari kemarin, sebelum tergerus oleh aksi profit taking dan pemulihan Greenback.

 

Berdasarkan grafik, support terdekat berada pada MA 7-hari di $1425, yang diikuti oleh $1420 dan $1410. Sebaliknya, resistensi dapat ditemukan di $1444, kemudian $1445 dan $1450.

 

"Emas dan perak akan diuntungkan beberapa konsolidasi," kata analis William Adams dari FastMarkets. "Tapi meningkatnya kepemilikan pada SPDR menunjukkan keduanya masih akan tetap didukung campuran antara safe haven dan lindung nilai inflasi."

Pejabat Fed Sinyalkan Keinginan Menarik Stimulus

Pejabat di Fed mensinyalkan keinginan mereka untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi seniali 600 milyar dollar pada bulan Juni secara mendadak, melepaskan strategi mereka sebelumnya untuk berangsur menarik intervensi pada pasar obligasi. “Saya tidak melihat adanya kenaikan yang kembali berbelok turun,” ucap Presiden Fed Atlanta Dennis Lockhart kemarin. “Menurutku itu tidak perlu,” ucap Presiden Fed Philadelphia Charles Plosser bulan lalu. Bank Sentral yang akan menggelar pertemuan tanggal 15 Maret sedang menuju babak kedua dari program pembelian obligasi.

Untuk dapat terjadi penghentian sepenuhnya di bulan Juni, mereka harus optimis bahwa perekonomian cukup kuat dalam menghadapi tingkat suku bunga jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi dan menguatnya ekspektasi penarikan stimulus terbesar dalam sejarah Fed, ucap Dan Greenhaus pada Miller Tabak & Co. LLC di New York. “Jika pemulihan dengan sendirinya ini kuat menghadapi tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi, mengapa kita tidak keluar dari stimulus?” ucap Greenhaus, kepala strategis ekonomi Miller Tabak. “Namun, saya masih cemas mengenai kemampuan mereka untuk menarik kebijakan ini tanpa menimbulkan gangguan yang lebih luas.”

Dollar Fluctuates Versus Euro as Payrolls Expand, Unemployment Rate Falls

The dollar fluctuated versus the euro after U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009.

The greenback traded little changed at $1.3967 per euro at 9:14 a.m. in New York, from $1.3969 yesterday, after falling as much as 0.2 percent. It touched $1.40 per euro for the first time since Nov. 8. The shared currency appreciated 0.2 percent to 115.43 yen, and the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 82.63 yen.
“We were expecting this to be a fairly strong number because we felt that there weren’t any influences from weather,” said Andrew Busch, a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago. “We got better-than-expected data, but it’s mixed.”

The yen depreciated for the fifth straight day versus the dollar as Labor Department data showed payrolls increased amid an improving economy and more seasonable weather. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 196,000. Private hiring, which excludes government agencies, rose by 222,000 in February, exceeding the 200,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

“The day may be dollar-positive because we’ve had a lot of dollar weakness recently, so this may be a little bit of a relief rally since the euro went from $1.34 to $1.40 in two weeks without a pause,” said Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York.
IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major trade partners, was little changed at 76.485 after falling for the past two days.
Past Reports

The index increased 0.4 percent Feb. 4 after the U.S. reported January payrolls rose by 36,000, less than the 146,000 forecast by economists. It rose 0.3 percent Jan. 7, when a report showed payrolls increased less than expected in December and the unemployment rate dropped.
The dollar fell earlier today against the euro as stock markets rose before the payrolls report.
The euro headed for a third straight weekly increase against the greenback, the longest run of gains since October, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday the ECB may increase interest rates at its next meeting. Sterling declined against the dollar after house prices fell in February, fueling concern that the economic recovery won’t be sustained.

 

ECB Rates

The greenback tumbled yesterday versus the euro after Trichet’s statement. The ECB has kept its key rate at 1 percent since May 2009 to support the economy.
The Federal Reserve has kept the U.S. benchmark at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008, and Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in congressional testimony this week the American economy still needs the support of a low rate.

“Interest-rate spreads are very, very important in currency valuations,” John Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts LLC, the world’s biggest currency hedge fund, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview on “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. “Dollar interest rates are not going anywhere.”
The dollar dropped over the first four days of the week versus 12 of its 16 most-traded counterparts even as reports showed an improving U.S. economy. The Fed said in a business survey the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, and manufacturing and service industries both expanded more than forecast in February.

 

Service Businesses

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses increased to 59.7, the highest level since August 2005, from 59.4 in January, the Tempe, Arizona- based group said yesterday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the gauge would fall to 59.3.
The ISM’s factory index increased to 61.4 from 60.8 in January, the fastest pace since May 2004, data showed on March 1. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.
Overall, the U.S. economy “continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace,” the central bank said March 2 in its Beige Book survey.

Gross Says Inflation Is Bigger Concern Than Bernanke Indicates: Tom Keene

 

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February, amid an improving economy and more seasonable weather, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009. The gain in payrolls followed a 63,000 increase in January and compared with the 196,000 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Bloomberg's Lizzie O'Leary reports. 

 

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about U.S. inflation and labor market outlook. U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009, Labor Department figures showed. Gross speaks with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio's "Surveillance." (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said gains in so-called headline inflation matter more for the U.S. economy than Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggests.

Rising oil prices may cut U.S. gross domestic product by a quarter to half a percentage point, Gross said in a radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene.

Surges in oil and other commodity prices probably won’t cause a permanent increase in broader inflation and borrowing costs are likely to stay low, Bernanke said March 1 in his semi- annual monetary policy testimony before Congress. Gasoline advanced to a 30-month high today as political unrest in Libya and the Middle East escalated, threatening global oil shipments, and an increase in U.S. jobs indicated higher demand.
“Bernanke tends to think this doesn’t matter -- at least in terms of headline versus the core -- we do,” Gross said. “For the last 10 years, with the exception of maybe a year or two recently, the headline has averaged about 0.5 percent more than the core and that’s because basically we’ve seen a shift based on globalization to increased commodity demand.”

Gross cut the holdings of U.S. government and related debt in Pimco’s $237 billion Total Return Fund in January to the smallest proportion in two years. The securities were cut to 12 percent of assets, from 22 percent in December. He reiterated today that investors should reduce holdings of Treasuries and U.K. gilts and buy higher-returning securities such as debt from emerging-market nations and corporate bonds as central banks keep borrowing rates low.

Treasury Yields

Ten-year Treasury yields have risen for each of the past six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the longest run since June 2006, as the economy showed signs of improvement and prices of commodities climbed.

Treasury yields are about 150 basis points too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5 percent with the Fed scheduled to end its asset purchases in June, Gross wrote in a monthly investment outlook posted March 2 on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website.

The Treasury 10-year note’s yield fell four basis points to 3.51 percent today as investors sought a refuge from the turmoil in the Middle East.

Consumer Prices

The consumer-price index increased 0.4 percent for a second month in January, exceeding the 0.3 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed Feb. 17. The so-called core rate, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, rose 0.2 percent, the biggest gain since October 2009.

“The core basically assumes you revert to the mean level of demand,” Gross said. “But when that demand curve shifts up based upon globalization in emerging market economies you have a difference.”
Crude oil for April delivery increased as much as $2.18, or 2.1 percent, to $104.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract is heading for a 5.2 percent gain this week, and is up 28 percent from a year ago.

U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February, amid an improving economy and more seasonable weather, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009.
The gain in payrolls followed a 63,000 increase in January and compared with the 196,000 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment rose in manufacturing, construction and temporary help agencies, while state and local government payrolls slumped.

Last update: 2:20 AM ET, Mar 5

Libya’s Rebels Claim Another Oil Hub in Day of Clashes

Libyan rebels pushed their front lines westward to Ras Lanuf, an oil port about halfway to the capital from opposition-stronghold Benghazi, as forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi used tear gas and gunfire to suppress protests in Tripoli.

Government forces moved against Zawiyah, the main opposition-held city west of Tripoli, according to Al Jazeera television. At least 18 people were killed, including the city’s rebel commander, and 120 wounded, according to the Associated Press.

Clashes also occurred along the coast of the Gulf of Sidra, where opposition fighters claimed control of Ras Lanuf, about 400 miles (650 kilometers) from Tripoli, according to Al Jazeera. Rebels found 20 handcuffed corpses at the military base in town, Al Jazeera said.


Oil rose to a 29-month high in New York on concern that the unrest in Libya will spread to other regional oil producers. The U.S. will have to be engaged and “reach out” to the people in the Middle East after the unrest in the region, President Barack Obama said.
“We can’t be naive about the changes that are taking place in the Middle East,” Obama said late yesterday at a dinner in Florida, according to a White House transcript. “Our commitment to Israel’s security is inviolable, is sacrosanct, but we should not be afraid of the possibilities of the future.”
‘Huge Opportunity’

While it is a “dangerous time” in the Middle East, “it’s also a huge opportunity for us because America is built on liberty and innovation and dynamism and technology,” Obama said.
The forces at work in Egypt “should be aligned with us, should be aligned with Israel” if the U.S. makes good decisions now and “we understand sort of the sweep of history.”
The U.S. is settling on a strategy in the Middle East aimed at keeping longtime allies who are willing to make democratic changes in power, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website today, without saying where it obtained the information.

The U.S. will urge protesters to work with the leaders as it implements a policy some U.S. officials and diplomats are calling “regime alteration,” rather than pressing for an immediate change of government, the newspaper said.
Libya’s state TV contradicted independent reporting by saying the government controlled both Zawiyah and Ras Lanuf, and Qaddafi’s son, Saif, told Al Jazeera the air force bombed rebel- held Brega, east of near Ras Lanuf, only to keep opposition fighters away from oil plants, not to kill them.

Long Battle

Qaddafi “can prolong this battle for weeks,” Shashank Joshi, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for defense and security studies in London, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “Only if he escalates it will he face intervention. He knows this is on the boil very slowly.”
The opposition forces’ spokesman, Abdullah Al Mahdi, said 6,000 people have died since anti-Qaddafi protests began Feb. 16 in Benghazi, compared with the 1,000 estimate cited by the United Nations. He didn’t indicate the basis for his higher figure.

Al Mahdi, a colonel who defected from Qaddafi’s military, said the rebels will next target Tripoli.
The escalation in the fighting may move the country closer to civil war.
“This is now a war, of course,’ said Joshi. “It is a straight-forward, semi-conventional war.”
Tripoli Streets

Much of the eastern part of the country is under rebel control, and Qaddafi had Tripoli on lockdown yesterday with a heavy show of security on the streets. The government prevented reporters, invited to the capital to rebut reports of the uprising, from leaving the Rixos hotel to cover anti-Qaddafi protests and cut Internet connections, according to an e-mail from Reporters Without Borders.

In the capital, security forces moved quickly to break up demonstrations after Friday prayers. They used tear gas followed by live ammunition, witnesses told the AP. It wasn’t clear whether they shot at protesters or fired into the air as the crowds scattered, AP said.

In Zawiyah, resident Belgassem al-Zawee said rebels repelled an attack by government forces advancing on the western side of the city. Later, snipers perched on rooftops opened fire at unarmed demonstrators marching toward a local hospital treating those wounded in the violence, he said.

“This has been a very, very difficult day,” he said in a telephone interview. “It was horrible.”
Holed up at home, Zawiyah residents are hearing intermittent gunfire and news that tanks surround the city, he said. “We are living in horror; our children are terrified.”
Forces Split

In Ras Lanuf, some pro-Qaddafi units withdrew after a split within the government forces during the battle with rebels, Al Jazeera said. The town has a tanker terminal that exports about 200,000 barrels of oil a day as well as Libya’s biggest refinery, with a capacity of 220,000 barrels a day, more than half the country’s total, according to the International Energy Agency.

Crude oil for April delivery increased $2.51 to $104.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Sept. 26, 2008. The contract rose 6.7 percent this week, the third straight advance, and is up 30 percent from a year ago.

Fighting in Misrata, a town about 90 miles east of Tripoli that was under opposition control, left at least 33 dead and 120 injured, a witness told Al Arabiya.
Hospital officials said at least 17 people were killed at an explosion at an ammunition depot near Benghazi. The cause of the blast was unclear.

Interpol Alert

Interpol, the international police organization, issued a global alert, known as an Orange Notice, against Qaddafi and 15 other Libyans, including members of his family and close associates. The notice is “to warn member states of the danger posed by the movement of these individuals and their assets” and to assist member states to enforce UN sanctions against them and to aid an International Criminal Court investigation into alleged crimes against humanity in Libya, Interpol said in an e- mailed statement.


More than 150,000 people, most of the foreign workers, have fled Libya to neighboring Egypt and Tunisia since Feb. 19, creating a crisis in the border areas, the UN refugee agency said on March 1. The U.S., U.K. and France said they were dispatching aircraft to deliver humanitarian aid and to help move the refugees to their home countries.

Mediation Offer

Libya’s opposition leaders rejected a mediation offer by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, an ally of Qaddafi. The Libyan leader’s “hands are tainted with blood and we will not talk to him,” rebel spokesman Mustafa Gheriani said, according to the AP. The Arab League said it was considering Chavez’s plan.
A ship heading to Libya and believed to be carrying a “significant amount” of Libyan currency subject to UN sanctions was stopped and brought back to Britain two days ago, the U.K. Home Office said yesterday.
When asked about travel bans and asset freezes, Saif al- Islam Qaddafi said on Al Jazeera, “We know the West, we know them very well. When you are strong they are like cats, when you are weak they are like tigers. We don’t pay attention to them.”
Protesters elsewhere in the region resumed their demands for civil rights, higher living standards and the ouster of entrenched autocratic regimes.

Yemen Protests

In Yemen, an opposition group said two people were killed when security forces attacked protesters in Harf Sufian, north of the capital, Sana’a. Tens of thousands of demonstrators in Sana’a called for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s three-decade rule, and there were rallies in other cities.
Opposition leaders March 3 presented Saleh with a plan for a transition to democracy this year. About a dozen people have died in more than three weeks of protests.
In Egypt, Prime Minister-designate Essam Sharaf addressed a crowd of thousands in Tahrir Square, saluting the “martyrs” who died in the fight to unseat President Hosni Mubarak and saying he would derive legitimacy from the people. He promised demonstrators to do his best to meet their demands.
Egyptian protesters continued to demand further changes after Mubarak’s Feb. 11 ouster, including a purge of old-regime officials from the government. The ruling military council March 3 bowed to one of their key demands, accepting the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik and inviting Sharaf to take his place.
In Bahrain, there were clashes between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in a central town, Reuters reported. The mostly Shiite opposition, representing the majority sect in the Persian Gulf island state, had planned rallies yesterday in Manama, the capital, to demand a transition toward democracy.
Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, a Sunni, said dialogue with the opposition must begin “as soon as practically possible” to end more than two weeks of unrest in which at least seven protesters were killed in a security crackdown.
Tunisia, where the Middle Eastern turmoil began two months ago, announced July elections for a national council that will draw up a new constitution.

Treasuries Decline as Jobs Growth, Inflation Weigh on Fixed-Income Demand

Treasuries fell, with 10-year notes halting a three-week rally, as signs of faster job growth and more inflation added to speculation the economic recovery is building momentum, damping demand for fixed-income assets.
The difference between yields on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices, touched 253 basis points yesterday, the most since July 2008, after a report showing the largest monthly job gains since May. Weekly losses were tempered as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture western towns, adding to concern political turmoil in the oil-producing Mideast and North Africa will spread and escalate.

“The economic numbers are clearly getting stronger and inflation is turning the corner and heading higher, which is weighing on the Treasury market,” Donald Ellenberger, who oversees about $6 billion as co-head of government and mortgage- backed securities at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. “Still, we have underlying tension between stronger growth and higher oil prices due to the uncertainty in the Middle East that is capping any selloff.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 3.49 percent in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3.625 percent security maturing in February 2021 was at 101 3/32.
Thirty-year bond yields rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.6 percent.

Yield Curve

The yield curve, or the difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury notes, reached 283 basis points yesterday, the widest since Feb. 21.
The Labor Department said payrolls rose by 192,000 in February, after a 63,000 increase in January. Payrolls were projected to climb 196,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, with estimates ranging as high as 297,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.1 percent from 9 percent, according to the survey median.

Growth Pace

“We are moving in the right direction, but it wasn’t stellar given what we’ve seen from recent reports,” said Jeffrey Cleveland, senior economist at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles, which manages $56 billion. “If the report was stronger we would see a flatter curve and some sense in the market that the Federal Reserve would start to prime to exit, but we are still seeing relative steepening.”
The Treasury announced plans to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes, $21 billion of 10-year securities and $13 billion of 30- year bonds next week.
“If rates creep up over 4 percent, I would be incrementally buying interest rates,” Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, said in a March 3 interview from New York with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker.
Ten-year yields also surged as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said interest rates may be increased at the next meeting. He told reporters in Frankfurt March 3 that inflation risks have moved to the “upside.” The ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent.

Fed Numbers

There’s a 33 percent chance the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates from almost zero in December, compared with 47 percent a month ago, according to CME Group Inc. exchange futures. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and central bank policy markers focus on core inflation, rather than an official target.
“The ECB news may be resetting expectation with likely timing of global central banks becoming more restrictive,” said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “It may mean little for the Fed, but you may see people bring forward their expectations for Fed tightening if data continues to come in better.”
The Fed’s Beige Book report said labor markets improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and “solid growth” in manufacturing. The central bank’s March 2 report was prepared in advance of the policy- making Federal Open Market Committee meeting March 15.

Central Bank Buys

The Fed bought $24 billion of Treasuries this week and has purchased $397.6 billion of U.S. debt as part of its $600 billion acquisition plan to support the recovery that runs through June. The central bank plans to buy $16 billion to $22 billion of Treasuries next week and issue an updated buying schedule on March 10.
Fed policy makers are signaling they favor an abrupt end to in Treasury purchases in June, jettisoning their prior strategy of gradually pulling back on intervention in bond markets.
“I don’t see a lot of gain to reverting to a tapering approach,” Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters March 3. “I don’t think that is necessary,” Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said last month.
Treasuries have handed investors a loss of 0.8 percent this year, compared with a gain of 5.9 percent last year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

Gold, Silver, Oil Will Spike To New Highs If US-UK Attack Libya

You can’t keep precious metals down when the globe is agog over violent political change, the freezing of dictators’ assets in the US and Switzerland– and deep anxiety over the price of oil.

Gold and silver, led by crude oil, will spike if talks between the US and UK for joint military action in Libya take root. This threat to the Libyan oil fields and to peace in the region would have an immediate impact in commodity markets.

Remember 1980 with our hostages in Iran; gold rose to $800 an ounce (there was double-digit inflation– at least 5 times the rate today) and silver to $50 (the Hunts idiotically tried to corner the market)
We are not that far from the peak in gold- $1440 an ounce. Just another $10 an ounce spike is half the $20 an ounce we made up today so far. We are at a 30 year peak for silver, which has been acting even more positively than gold.

I don’t think this is the Bernanke market, as he made it clear today that inflation is just the 2% he wants, and that’s despite the horrific run-up in food prices. And he’s beaten off deflation with QE2. No knee-jerk connection between Bernanke and precious metals.

The connection for gold and silver is geo-political. My new rule of thumb for gold and silver; the more uprisings that lead to oil supply fears the more speculation will hive onto gold and silver. Or put it another way, as go oil fears, so goes money into gold and silver.

So, battles on the Tunisian- Libyan border, calls for public demonstrations in Teheran, unrest in Bahrain, Algeria that suggests the daisy chain moves ultimately to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and who-knows-where-else all add up to uncertainty about oil prices.

And uncertainty about oil prices– especially if they trend higher– suggest to me somewhat higher gold and oil prices.

Oil Heads for Sixth Weekly Advance on Libya Disruption, Rising U.S. Demand

Oil advanced, headed for its sixth weekly gain in London, as civil unrest in Libya fueled concern that supply disruptions will be prolonged while employment data from the U.S. showed signs of growing demand.
Brent crude gained as much as 1.3 percent as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture towns in western Libya and prepared to quash protests in the capital, Tripoli, while rebels fought for control of oil ports on the country’s central and eastern coastal strip. A U.S. government report today showed employers added workers last month while the unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in almost two years.

“The Middle East-North Africa price risk continues to be on the upside and economic support from the U.S. should also be strong,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Stockholm-based consultants SEB Commodities Research, said in a note today. “We thus hold a bullish view for the day.”

Brent crude for April settlement rose as much as $1.51 to $116.30 a barrel and was at $115.74 at 1:42 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract has gained 3.2 percent this week. Crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $1.18 at $103.09 a barrel, headed for a 5.3 percent gain this week.

Oil fell as much as 2.1 percent in New York yesterday after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez offered to mediate the conflict in Libya, which has reduced supplies from Africa’s third-largest producer. Fighting has cut crude production in the North African country by as much as 1 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Libya pumped 1.6 million barrels a day in January, according to Bloomberg estimates.

U.S. Demand

Prices also rose on signs the U.S. economy is gaining strength and fuel demand is recovering. U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February, amid an improving economy and more seasonable weather, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Government data Published yesterday showed. Service industries expanded in February at the fastest pace since 2005 and fewer Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits.

The turmoil in the Middle East also pushed up oil products prices in Europe. Jet fuel, diesel and gasoline surpassed $1,000 a metric ton in Europe for the first time in more than two years. Jet fuel traded at $1,055 a ton yesterday in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil-trading hub, bringing its advance this year to 28 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Premium gasoline rose to $1,025 a ton while diesel in the Mediterranean region jumped to $1,001 a ton on March 2.

Regional Protests

Demonstrations have toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, while there have been protests in countries including Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Oman. In Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, websites have called for a nationwide “Day of Rage” on March 11 and March 20, according to Human Rights Watch.

In Yemen today, tens of thousands of protesters were pouring into Change Square in the capital, Sana’a, calling for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s three-decade rule.

Prices closed at the highest since September 2008 on March 2 after Iranian protesters clashed with security forces in Tehran while demonstrations escalated in Oman. Iran is the second-biggest producer in OPEC and Oman is the largest Middle East producer outside the group.

Oil prices may rise further next week as civil unrest in the region fuels concerns of prolonged supply disruption. Twenty-four of 43 analysts, or 56 percent, forecast crude oil will climb through March 11, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Twelve respondents, or 28 percent, predicted prices will decline and seven estimated little change.

“I can’t see any reason for oil prices to be lower while there is unrest in the Middle East,” said Michael Hewson, market analyst at London-based CMC Markets, which handles more than $150 million a day in U.S. crude contracts.

Five Ways to Use Commodities Against Inflation

The classic way to protect yourself from a burst of inflation is to own commodities. Holding a ton of wheat or copper will not, of course, directly insulate you from the pain of rising medical and college bills. But hard assets are nonetheless a broad defense against the rising cost of living. That’s because their prices pick up the scent of dollar debasement well before it’s felt in the economy as a whole.
I assume you know about the big drawback to commodities: They are insanely volatile. The other things to consider are the costs and taxes of owning them. I’ll focus on the latter two in reviewing five different ways to get your hands around hard assets.

Buy a gold ETF

The biggest and best known exchange traded fund holding commodities is the SPDR Gold Shares, ticker GLD. It has $56 billion worth of metal tucked away here and there. It trades a furious 15 million shares a day.
Cost to you: 0.4% a year. That is, you’re paying State Street Corp, the World Gold Council and the other middlemen not quite $6 a year to hold a troy ounce of metal and feed the guard dogs.
For in-and-out traders this fund can’t be beat. The bid/ask spread is often only a penny, negligible on a $140 stock.
Long-term holders would be better off in the much smaller ($5 billion) iShares gold fund operated by BlackRock, at an annual fee of only 0.25%. Ticker: IAU.
True worrywarts might find more reassurance in an ETF from ETF Securities, which makes a big fuss over where it stores its bullion: in Zurich, as opposed to the sketchier locales (like Toronto and London) used by competitors.
Most of the $25 billion of assets run by ETFS out of its headquarters on the isle of Jersey are in overseas securities. It has $3 billion in U.S. funds, including the $1.3 billion gold fund, ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (ticker: SGOL). The cost of this product is 0.39% a year.
If you like silver, even more volatile than gold (and much hotter in 2010), the big fund is the one from iShares, with $12 billion of bullion. Ticker: SLV. Cost: 0.5% a year.
The folks from Jersey offer a discount. For now, ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) costs only 0.3% a year.
For Americans, the tax treatment of all these products is the same. Metals, and the funds that hold metals, are considered “collectibles.” Hold for more than 12 months and you pay a maximum 28% federal tax on gains.
Collectibles gains and losses blend on your tax return with gains and losses from other capital assets. If you have a $10,000 loss carryforward from stocks and take a $12,000 long gain in gold, your federal tax is $560.
What’s not to like about gold and silver? The volatility doesn’t bother me. I can stand volatility on something that might be 5% of my investment portfolio and which, moreover, is uncorrelated with those other assets.
I see a different problem. Technologic breakthroughs have lowered the cost of extracting natural gas from the ground, depressing the price of this commodity. The same could happen to gold. Surely the quadrupling of prices in the past decade has inspired prospectors and chemists to find new ways to get the metal.
I have been skeptical of gold for a while on this basis, and the market has proved me wrong so far. Bulls will tell you that gold will steam up to $3,000 before the decade is out. That could easily happen.

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Buy a commodity ETF

The big one is the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking fund, with $6 billion in hand and 2 million shares a day of trading. The product represents a joint venture between distributors at Invesco’s PowerShares and traders at Deutsche Bank. Ticker: DBC.
The fund is weighted toward energy but also has precious metals, base metals and agricultural commodities. It’s expensive, at 0.85% of assets per year.
The fund owns futures, not ingots, oil barrels and sacks of grain. That makes its tax treatment different.
People who hold futures tally up their paper gains and losses every Dec. 31, recording them as if they were 60% long and 40% short, never mind how long they have been held.
With the rate on long gains 15% through the end of next year, and on short gains 35%, your blended rate is 23%. Under present law these component rates pop up in two years to a maximum of 25% and 44.6%. (I am including the effects of a health care surcharge and a deduction clawback.) That gives you a blended 32.8%.
The next tax bill might have some break for wealthy investors, lowering the 32.8% number, but it will surely leave in place the mark-to-market treatment. That’s a big negative for very long-term holders.
If you are planning to sit on your commodity hedges for 30 years in a taxable account, you are better off with a bullion ETF. Deferral of your tax bill is worth a lot.

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Buy a commodity ETN

An exchange traded note is a bank IOU with returns pegged to some index. In the case of the iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Index note, the bank is Barclays and the index is one covering a broad basket of metals, fuels and farm products. It’s less energy-intensive than the ETF from PowerShares.
Ticker: DJP. There are $3 billion worth of the notes outstanding, with 400,000 shares a day of activity. Expenses run 0.75% a year.
There is risk here, beyond the pricing of wheat and oil. Your piece of paper is a note from Barclays. If the bank goes under, you don’t get your money back.
Taxation: murky. For now, holders selling after 12 months get a 1099 from the broker reporting the sale as the sale of a capital asset eligible for favorable long-term capital gain rates. But the IRS, which has been silent on the matter, might surface with a contrary view.
The tax collectors could decree that any gains on ETNs are bank “interest,” taxable at steep ordinary-income rates. Some Wall Streeter would fight back. The discussion would then move to a courthouse.
My guess is that Congress will arrange some kind of compromise with a partial grandfathering for present investors. They’ll get the low rate on appreciation up to the point when the bill is enacted, provided they declare their paper profits right away. But it’s just a guess, and the tax treatment could ultimately be a whole lot worse than this.

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Trade futures

Could you buy direct and save? Instead of buying 1,000 shares of GLD, you set aside $140,000 of interest-bearing collateral and go long one 100-ounce gold future on Comex.
You’ll save the $6 an ounce that is the ETF’s annual holding fee. You’ll pick up a few dollars an ounce by investing the cash. But you’ll have to eat the contango.
Contango is the upward slope of futures prices over time. In effect, the cost of holding bullion is built into futures prices. Recently the October future was quoted at a $4 premium to the April future.
When the dust settles you will have saved little or nothing. But if you were planning to hold for less than a year the futures will save you a bit on taxes. They get that blended 23% rate, while short-term gains in collectibles are taxed at 35%.

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Amass gold coins

These are fun to hold. But there are costs.
You’ll pay a premium over bullion value when you buy.
Then you’ve got the cost of a shotgun under your bed.
When you sell, the dealer will pay you less than the bullion value. That’s because he doesn’t know whether your bag of coins is in fact a bag of gold-plated tungsten slugs. He’ll incur risk and/or assaying costs.
A round trip in coins is going to cost you 10% or more, says Will Rhind, an executive at ETF Securities.
He may be overstating the problem, but still. That would be 100 times the transaction cost in ETFs.
I classify gold coins held as inflation hedge in the category “Highly Stupid.”

Libya Oil Production, Outage, Exports and Customers

As fighting continues across Libya, the oil industry is trying to assess the output lost from Africa's third-largest producer.

Most estimates suggest around half of the country's 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil capacity is out of action.

Libya's top oil official has estimated oil output has fallen to 700,000-750,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Below are details on Libya's oil production, estimates of lost output, its exports and customers:

Production

OPEC member Libya is the 17th largest oil producer in the world, third-largest producer in Africa and holds the continent's largest crude oil reserves. It normally pumps around 1.6 million bpd, 85 percent of which is exported to Europe and its output is equivalent to about 2 percent of global oil consumption.

Lost Output

Estimates of lost Libyan production have varied widely, from 100,000 to 1.2 million bpd. The International Energy Agency has said about half of Libya's output has been shut.

Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil (NOC) and the country's top oil official under Muammar Gaddafi, said on Wednesday output had dropped to 700,000-750,000 bpd after the flight of most of the foreign workers who make up 10 percent of the Libyan energy industry's workforce.

An oil facility at Zueitina, south of the rebel-held city of Benghazi, has been damaged and was on fire on Friday, Al Jazeera reported, showing a video of smoke rising from an oil plant.

No other damage to Libya's oil infrastructure has yet been reported but the risk of long-term damage is rising.

Libya's battle lines are shifting daily, with rebels in tenuous control of the east and the fighting is increasingly taking place near oil industry infrastructure on the coast.

Fighting has taken place around the oil terminal and export hub town of Brega an oil 800 km (500 miles) east of Tripoli. The town is currently in rebel hands.

Exports

Libya is a net exporter of crude oil and normally sells around 1.3 million bpd into world markets. It has domestic consumption estimated of around 270,000 bpd.

At least 2.4 million barrels of crude was exported earlier this week in four tankers but others were cancelled as supply to terminals dwindled.

At least one tanker left a Libyan terminal empty on Thursday and only a small number of other tankers were waiting to enter Libyan ports.

Oilfields

Most of Libya's oilfields are located in and around the Sirte Basin, which contains around 80 percent of its proven reserves. Oil had reportedly stopped flowing at the Nafoora oilfield in the Sirte basin, according to Al Jazeera, although few details were available.

Other key areas include the Ghadames Basin and Cyrenaica Basin. Oil production from the isolated Murzuq oil field in the desert in the south of the country continues as normal, a spokesman for Spanish operator Repsol said last week.

Ports

AP Libyan oil port activity has slowed dramatically, but most ports are open with tankers leaving and waiting to enter.

Libyan oil port activity has slowed dramatically, but most ports are open with tankers leaving and waiting to enter.

Priority has been given to passenger vessels evacuating civilians and communications with harbour officials and agents has been extremely difficult, trade and shipping sources said.

Libya's oil port operations have been at a virtual standstill due to underproduction and bad weather. But at least two ports, Melittah and Zawiyah, have reopened. Es Sider, the largest oil port in Libya, and Tobruk continue to operate.

London's marine insurance market has added Libya to a list of areas deemed high risk, increasing significantly the cost of sailing to the country's ports.

Libya exports various grades of light crude from six major terminals, five of which are located in the eastern part of the country, now mostly in rebel hands.

Following are the eastern terminals with loading volumes in January, provided by the IEA.

• Es Sider 447,000 bpd
• Marsa El Brega 51,000 bpd
• Ras Lanuf 195,000 bpd
• Tobruk 51,000 bpd
• Zueitina 214,000 bpd
• Zawiyah 199,000 bpd (January exports)
• other unspecified terminals 333,000 bpd

Sanctions

Western countries, the European Union and United Nations have all imposed sanctions on Libya and frozen government assets.

The sanctions have not targeted oil exports but would be likely to affect the ability of the Gaddafi administration to collect payment for oil exports.

Customers

Europe is most affected by the loss of Libyan oil exports. About 32 percent of its oil goes to Italy, 14 percent to Germany, 10 percent to France and China and 5 percent to the United States.

Libyan oil accounts for about 23 percent of Ireland's oil and about 22 percent of Italy's, according to the IEA. Around 13 percent goes east of the Suez Canal to Asia.

Buyers have said the shortage can be covered by alternative sources such as Nigeria and Azerbaijan, which produce similar light, low sulphur crude oils to Libyan oil.

Saudi Arabia is pumping around 9 million bpd and has spare capacity of around 3.5 million bpd, a senior Saudi source said on Monday. The kingdom has promised to fill any supply gap caused by the unrest in Libya although it produces heavier crude with higher sulphur content than Libya.

Libyan Oil Companies
Libya's oil industry is run by the state-owned NOC, which is responsible for exploration and production sharing agreements with international oil companies. Along with smaller subsidiaries, NOC accounts for around 50 percent of the country's oil output.

A unit of NOC, Agoco, has decided to operate separately until Gaddafi is overthrown and Tripoli is free of his rule, an official said.

Foreign Players
Major oil companies operating in Libya include:

• BP [BP  48.56    0.35  (+0.73%)]
• ConocoPhillips [ COP  Loading...      ()]
• Eni [ENI  20.40    0.12  (+0.59%)]
• ExxonMobil [XOM  85.08    -0.74  (-0.86%)]
• Hess [HES  84.24    -0.96  (-1.13%)]
• Marathon [MRO  51.66    -1.00  (-1.9%)]
• Occidental Petroleum [OXY  103.15    -0.26  (-0.25%)]
• OMV [OMVJF  44.337  ---  UNCH  (0)]
• Repsol [REP  33.46    -0.19  (-0.56%)]
• Shell

  Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS'A 72.21  -0.07  -0.1%  NYSE

  Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

  [RDS'A  72.21    -0.07  (-0.1%)]
• Statoil [STO  27.67    0.63  (+2.33%)]
• Wintershall, a unit of BASF [BASFY  84.48    -1.29  (-1.5%)]
  

Refineries and Refined Oil Products

The country has five domestic refineries with a combined capacity of 378,000 barrels a day:

• Azzawiya Oil Refining
• Sarir Refining
• Sirte Oil
• Tobruk Refining
• Ras Lanuf Oil & Gas Processing

The IEA said Libya last year imported about 80,000 bpd of refined oil products and exported about 100,000 barrels of oil products to OECD countries, mostly in Europe.

Summary Box: Gold, silver rally on uncertainty

GOLD, SILVER RALLY: Gold and Silver prices ended the week higher as investors looked for safe assets. Gold for April delivery rose $12.20 to settle at $1,428.60. Silver for May delivery rose $1 to settle at $35.327 an ounce.

JOBS REPORT: Traders also seemed disappointed with the Department of Labor's jobless report, which showed fewer jobs created than some analysts expected.

OIL JUMPS: Oil prices ended the week at a 29-month high, with benchmark oil for March delivery rising $2.51 cents to settle at $104.42 a barrel. Prices climbed as tensions in Libya escalated.

Gold, silver rally on concerns over energy prices

NEW YORK - Gold and silver prices ended the week higher as uncertainly over energy prices and political instability in the Middle East drove investors out of the stock market.

Gold and silver are playing a familiar role, offering what investors consider to be a relatively safe asset during times of turmoil. Continued fighting in Libya, rising oil prices and the threat of inflation all helped fuel a rally in gold and silver.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 88 points Friday despite news that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9 percent in February as the economy added 192,000 jobs. At the same time, oil prices hit their highest level since 2008 and tensions in Libya escalated as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi used tear gas to repel protesters in Tripoli

"The Middle East is still a factor. There are some safe haven (investment) flows going into the precious metals," said Tom Pawlicki, commodities analyst with MF Global Research in Chicago.

Gold for April delivery rose $12.20 to settle at $1,428.60. Silver for May delivery rose $1 to settle at $35.327 an ounce.

Industrial metals fell as economic uncertainty dimmed the outlook for commodities that are used in manufacturing.

Copper fell 0.3 cents to settle at $4.472 a pound. Palladium lost $5 to settle at $809.80 an ounce. Platinum rose $4.90 to $1,837.90 an ounce.

Oil prices ended the week at a 29-month high as fighting in Libya intensified. Most of Libya's oil production has been shut down because of the crisis, and experts say the country's oil fields will be threatened as long as there's no clear leader in charge.

Rebels also attacked the oil port of Ras Lanouf, about 380 miles east of Tripoli. They battled with about 3,000 pro-Gadhafi troops, mainly around the facility's airstrip. As night fell it was not clear who was in control of the complex. Earlier in the week, rebels pushed back Gadhafi forces from a larger oil facility.

The Energy department said this week that petroleum demand has grown for four straight weeks, resulting in unexpected drops in the nation's oil and gasoline supplies last week.

Benchmark oil for March delivery rose $2.51 cents to settle at $104.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil gained 4 cents to settle at $3.0893 per gallon, gasoline rose 2.02 cents to settle at $3.0464 per gallon and natural gas gained 3.1 cents to settle at $3.809 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grains and beans were mixed. In May contracts, wheat gained 8.75 cents to settle at $8.3225 a bushel, corn lost 8.75 cents to settle at $7.28 a bushel and soybeans rose 2 cents to settle at $14.14 a bushel.

Soros: Kebijakan Energi Korup, Sumber Revolusi Timur Tengah

Krisis Timur Tengah telah menyita perhatian para ekonom ternama dunia. Khususnya pasca lonjakan minyak hingga ke level kritis dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. 'Sentilan' dan prediksi dari berbagai tokoh mulai mengemuka perlahan.

Miliuner George Soros juga memandang penting kenaikan harga minyak bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Ia menyerukan para negara produsen untuk mengoptimalkan sumber daya alam yang dimiliki. Semua eksportir seharusnya transparan dan jujur dalam mengelola pendapatan negara. "Di Libya, krisis terjadi akibat penyalahgunaan sumber daya alam oleh pihak penguasa," ujar Soros. Oleh karena itu, Soros mengingatkan Arab Saudi dan Rusia untuk lebih mengedepankan akuntabilitas energi. Sementara Ia juga memprediksi rejim Iran juga akan terdampak oleh arus revolusi Timur Tengah.

Libya memproduksi 1,6 juta barel minyak per hari atau produsen terbesar ke-17 dunia. Kekuasaan pemerintah Khadafi sangat bergantung pada aliran dana masuk ke sektor perminyakan. Ketika ditanya BBC tentang tren revolusi di Afrika dan Middle East, Soros tegas menyatakan bahwa segala konflik di wilayah tersebut akibat dari kebijakan energi menyimpang dari pemerintah, seperti Libya.

"Seharusnya rakyat yang menikmati keuntungan dari hasil bumi negara," tegas Soros. Khadafi memonopoli pendapatan, dan rakyat menentangnya. Kini, Soros memandang Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa perlu mendukung revolusi Timur Tengah secara lebih aktif. Dengan demikian, pemerintahan yang baru bisa lebih kooperatif dengan pihak barat.

Amazon

Terlihat pola inverse head and shoulders di grafik 1 jam AMAZON, dan saat ini pullback sedang terjadi ke area neckline. Jika harga bertahan di atas area neckline ini, maka pergerakan diperkirakan akan kembali naik menguji resistance di 174.50. Tembusnya resistance ini akan mengkonfirmasi ulang pola inverse head and shoulders kita mengincar area 175.96 – 177.77.

Namun demikian, waspadai sinyal bearish yang muncul dari stochastic dan CCI 1 jam, karena jika hal ini diikuti oleh pergerakan ke bawah area neckline, maka pola inverse head and shoulders tersebut akan gagal dan harga berpotensi turun hingga ke area 168.30.

Pertikaian Libya Memanas, Minyak Naik

Harga minyak menta AS melonjak ke level tinggi sejak bulan September 2008 hari Jumat setelah pihak keamanan Libya menyerang demostran di Tripoli dan bentrokan dengan pemberontak di dekat terminal minyak besar Ras Lanuf. Investor fokus pada gangguan suplai lanjutan, mempertimbangkan pemberontakan di Libya dapat menjadi ancaman bagi sektor minyak, begitu juga kemungkinan menyebarnya aksi protes dan mempengaruhi negara produsen minyak lainnya, terutama Arab Saudi.

Aksi Protes di Yaman, Oman dan Bahrain juga memicu ketidakpastian mengenai kawasan setelah menurunkan rezim pemerintahan di Mesir dan Tunisia. "Ada sederetan kenaikan level tinggi dan level rendah, mengindikasikan pasar mempertahankan penguatan,” ucap Michael Fitzpatrick, editor pada surat kabar industri Kilduff Group di New York.

Pejabat Fed Sinyalkan Keinginan Menarik Stimulus

Pejabat di Fed mensinyalkan keinginan mereka untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi seniali 600 milyar dollar pada bulan Juni secara mendadak, melepaskan strategi mereka sebelumnya untuk berangsur menarik intervensi pada pasar obligasi. “Saya tidak melihat adanya kenaikan yang kembali berbelok turun,” ucap Presiden Fed Atlanta Dennis Lockhart kemarin. “Menurutku itu tidak perlu,” ucap Presiden Fed Philadelphia Charles Plosser bulan lalu. Bank Sentral yang akan menggelar pertemuan tanggal 15 Maret sedang menuju babak kedua dari program pembelian obligasi.

Untuk dapat terjadi penghentian sepenuhnya di bulan Juni, mereka harus optimis bahwa perekonomian cukup kuat dalam menghadapi tingkat suku bunga jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi dan menguatnya ekspektasi penarikan stimulus terbesar dalam sejarah Fed, ucap Dan Greenhaus pada Miller Tabak & Co. LLC di New York. “Jika pemulihan dengan sendirinya ini kuat menghadapi tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi, mengapa kita tidak keluar dari stimulus?” ucap Greenhaus, kepala strategis ekonomi Miller Tabak. “Namun, saya masih cemas mengenai kemampuan mereka untuk menarik kebijakan ini tanpa menimbulkan gangguan yang lebih luas.”

Kenaikan Minyak Menekan Saham AS

Saham-saham AS diperdagangkan melemah seiring tingginya harga minyak kembali menghantui para investor, sementara data tenaga kerja bulan Februari masih membantu menahan pesimisme lebih jauh.
Terpantau indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average melemah -39 poin, di level 12198. S&P500 jatuh -7.79 poin di level 1323.60, sementara Nasdaq100 turun -5.50 di level 2366.75.

Penurunan ini terjadi karena para investor masih khawatir atas imbas dair kenaikan harga energi. Minyak mentah berjangka diperdagangkan di $103.65 per barrel seiring kerusuhan Libya masih berlanjut.

Di jangka pendek, harga minyak masih berimbas lebih besar dibanding data tenaga kerja, karena secara keseluruhan level  harga minyak yang lebih nyata-nyata membahayakan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara data tenaga kerja masih perlu menunggu konfirmasi penurunan pengangguran secara konsisten dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.

Minyak Tekan Wall Street

Wall Street melemah meskipun indikator ekonomi tunjukkan berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi AS. Non-farm payroll meningkat 192.000 dan tingkat pengangguran turun ke level 8,9% untuk bulan Februari. Pesanan pabrikan juga meningkat 3,1%, lebih tinggi dari estimasi 2,1% dan revisi publikasi Januari 1,4%. "Data tenaga kerja memang bagus, tapi ini telah diantisipasi pasar dan kenaikan juga tidak jauh berbeda dari estimasi," ungkap Hayes Miller, petinggi Baring Asset Management. “Di lain pihak, harga minyak terus meningkat dan ini dapat menjadi ancaman bagi pemulihan ekonomi dunia.”


Libya masih bergejolak seiring pemberontak dan pendukung Gaddafi masih berusaha rebutkan fasilitas minyak strategis. Demonstrasi juga sedang berlangsung di Tripoli; meski reporter dilarang untuk meliput tapi terdengar suara tembakan.  Harga minyak masih bertengger di level tiggi 2 ½ tahun seiring terus berlanjut demonstrasi di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Pengunjuk rasa juga mulai terlihat di daerah selaran Arab Saudi, ekportir minyak terbesar dunia. Performa saham berbanding terbalik dengan harga minyak akibat kecemasan tingginya biaya energi dapat bebani kegiatan ekonomi.