Selasa, 26 Juni 2012

Pemimpin Eropa Tidak Memecahkan Masalah Minggu Ini

Pemimpin Eropa Tidak Memecahkan Masalah Minggu IniEuro diperdagangkan di bawah tekanan pada minggu ini di belakang keprihatinan atas situasi di zona eropa  dan spekulasi dalam pertemuan berikutnya para pemimpin eropa  yang akan diadakan minggu ini. Pasar tidak memiliki kepercayaan pada solusi yang tepat atau datangnya berita besar dari para pemimpin di KTT ke-19.

Ini adalah "Minggu penting untuk zona eropa," kata Nouriel Roubini, Kepala Ekonomi dari  Roubini Global, "baik perjanjian pada integrasi penuh (fiskal, perbankan, politik, pertumbuhan) atau percepatan proses dis-integrasi. "Hanya jika para pemimpin Uni Eropa berkomitmen untuk penyatuan sepenuhnya (fiskal / perbankan / politik)," lanjut Roubini.

Soros Ingin Eropa Segera Bertindak

Soros Ingin Eropa Segera BertindakMiliuner George Soros anjurkan Eropa untuk bentuk lembaga yang akan membeli obligasi pemerintah Italia dan Spanyol dan memperingatkan jika Eropa gagal hasilkan solusi pekan ini maka euro akan hancur. “Pimpinan Uni Eropa harus membuat Badan Fiskal Eropa yang akan membeli obligasi pemerintah jika Italia dan Spanyol berhasil jalankan target penghematan,” ujar Soros ketika diwawancara oleh Bloomberg TV. “Pendanaan dapat bersumber dari penjualan obligasi Eropa, yang akan memiliki yield rendah karena didukung oleh setiap anggota zona-euro.”

Perancis dan Italia telah mendesak Jerman untuk ambil tindakan tegas demi akhiri krisis utang setelah biaya pinjaman obligasi pemerintah Spanyol bertenor 10-tahun mencapai level kritis 7%. Namun, pemimpin Uni Eropa belum capai kata sepakat mengenai solusi terbaik jelang pertemuan 28-29 Juni mendatang.

“Eropa kini mulai kehabisan waktu untuk tunjukan kepada investor bahwa Eropa bisa selamatkan euro,” tutur Soros. "Ada perbedaan pendapat. Kecuali jika perbedaan tersebut dapat diselesaikan dalam tiga hari maka Eropa bisa terpuruk. Bursa saham dan obligasi pemerintah Eropa akan bereaksi negatif jika Eropa gagal umumkan rencana pekan ini untuk mengurangi tekanan terhadap Spanyol dan Italia.”

Pertumbuhan Asia di Pundak China

Pertumbuhan Asia di Pundak ChinaNegeri tirai bambu akan menjadi motor penggerak ekonomi Asia sepanjang sisa tahun ini.Perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi tidak bisa dipungkiri sudah terjadi di daratan China. Namun hal itu tidak akan bertahan lama karena negara perekonomian terbesar Asia ini akan bangkit di paruh ke-dua. Demikian pendapat ekonom HSBC hari ini.

Pertumbuhan China dan India memang menyentuh titik terendah pada periode April hingga Juni di level 7,8% dan 5,3%. Namun laju ekonomi kedua negara diyakini akan lebih cepat pada kuartal III nanti menjadi 8,5% dan 6%. "Untuk China, kebijakan yang lebih longgar akan menaikkan permintaan dalam negeri walaupun ekspor ke wilayah barat masih lesu," Frederic Neumann, Kepala Riset Ekonomi Asia HSBC pada laporan kuartalan hari ini.

HSBC memprediksi China memangkas persyaratan Giro Wajib Minimum sebanyak 200 basis poin dan menurunkan suku bunga 25 basis poin lagi. Terbuka peluang bagi pemerintah untuk menurunkan juga pungutan pajak dan investasi langsung pada sektor perumahan serta infrastruktur. "Kombinasi antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter akan menggenjot permintaan, kepercayaan usaha dan nilai tambah lainnya," ulas HSBC. Oleh karena itu, Neumann yakin Asia tidak akan kolaps secara ekonomi karena peran China yang lebih signifikan di semester II.

Jika proyeksi HSBC terbukti maka kinerja ekonomi China nantinya akan identik dengan apa yang dialami oleh Korea Selatan. Negeri ginseng mengekspor lebih banyak produk ke wilayahnya sendiri ketimbang ke Amerika dan Eropa sejak krisis hutang melanda. Adapun faktor lain yang makin membuka jalan bagi perbaikan roda bisnis adalah penurunan harga minyak dunia. Hal ini sejatinya akan memperkuat daya beli konsumen dan mengurangi beban produksi. Harga minyak yang lebih rendah juga memberi kesempatan bagi India dan Indonesia untuk memangkas subsidi dan mendukung pertumbuhan via stimulus baru.

Fundamental Analysis, June 22nd, 2012

Dollar rallies on weak data, Fed disappointment

The U.S. dollar posted its biggest rise in more than three months against major currencies on Thursday as weak economic data around the globe further unnerved investors disappointed with the Federal Reserve's decision to take only a modest step to bolster the economy.

Currencies of commodity-linked economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada sold off as investors dumped riskier investments and parked money in the relative safety of the dollar. U.S. jobless claims indicated the labor market is still struggling, while signs of softening in U.S. manufacturing and weakness in global output heightened the aversion to risk.

The data comes a day after the U.S. central bank expanded a program to keep long-term borrowing costs down and said it was ready to do more if needed, but disappointed some investors who had hoped for another round of bond buying. The euro dropped as low as $1.2546 <EUR=> on Reuters data, far off Wednesday's high of $1.2744. It was last at $1.2562, down 1.1 percent, on track for its largest daily loss in more than three months.

Adding to weakness in the euro was data showing Germany's private sector shrank in June for the second month running, with manufacturing activity hitting a three-year low.  The weak euro zone data kept alive speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates soon, offering investors a fresh excuse to sell the euro.

Wall St suffers worst loss in three weeks

U.S. stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits. Shares of energy and materials companies led declines as commodity prices fell. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October and the S&P energy sector index <.GSPE> lost 4 percent. Investors said weak overseas demand was responsible for the decline in those industries.

Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness. Stocks had enjoyed a two-week run that brought the S&P up more than 7 percent on hopes for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve.  Business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted, while weaker overseas demand slowed growth by U.S. factories.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 251.35 points, or 1.96 percent, at 12,573.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 30.19 points, or 2.23 percent, at 1,325.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 71.36 points, or 2.44 percent, at 2,859.09.

The day's decline was the worst since June 1 when the S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent. Softening data globally lifted hopes of central bank action to support the economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it would extend one monetary stimulus program and said it was ready to do more to help economic growth if necessary.

Gold drops 2.5 pct after data stirs deflation fears

Gold fell 2.5 percent on Thursday, nearly wiping out this year's gains as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown and disappointment over a lack of aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus dampened bullion's inflation-hedge appeal. The metal posted its biggest one-day drop since Feb. 29. Its selloff started o n Wednesday when the Fed ended a policy meeting without launching a new round of monetary easing but instead opted to lengthen its "Operation Twist" program aimed at lowering long-term interest rates.

Deflation worries pummelled precious metals after reports showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity, a shrinking Chinese factory sector and slowing business activity across the euro zone. The data added to fears that Europe's debt crisis and slower growth in the United States and Asia would cause downturns around the globe.

Spot gold <XAU=> fell 2.5 percent to $1,566 an ounce by 3:05 p.m. EDT (1905 GMT), having earlier hit a low of $1,563.88, within 10 cents to turning negative for the year compared with the 2011 close at $1,563.80 on Dec. 30. U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery were down $50.20 an ounce at $1,565.60, with trading volume in line with the 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Futures Drop Below $80 for First Time in Eight Months

Oil in New York tumbled below $80 a barrel and Brent crude fell under $90 as reports signaling a global economic slowdown added to concern that demand will slow amid rising supplies. Futures dropped 4 percent, the most this year, as manufacturing slumped in the U.S., China and Europe, applications for U.S. unemployment benefits exceeded estimates and sales of existing homes were lower than expected. Oil stockpiles rose last week to the most since 1990, the Energy Department reported yesterday.
 
Crude futures for August delivery fell $3.25 to $78.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Oct. 4. The price is down 21 percent in 2012. Brent oil for August decreased $3.46, or 3.7 percent, to $89.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest settlement since December 2010. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate settled at $11.03, the lowest level since January.

Fears about the economy are making people very leery. The jobless claims, the manufacturing data and all the economic data are coming together to push almost everything down.

Nikkei set to fall on global growth concerns

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to open lower on Friday, as data showing U.S. manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in 11 months in June added to concerns about weaker growth in Europe and China.
The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,650 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,740 on Thursday, down 0.9 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,820.

A weaker yen against the dollar may provide some support to Japanese equities. Japanese financial stocks may also be in focus after ratings agency Moody's cut the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks, including JPMorgan <JPM.N>, Bank of America <BAC.N>, HSBC <HSBA.L> and Credit Suisse <CSGN.VX>, in an expected move that was part of a broad review of major financial institutions. On Thursday, the Nikkei gained 0.8 percent to 8,824.07, hitting a five-week closing high. The benchmark is up 3 percent so far this week, but is still down 12.5 percent on the quarter, weighed by concerns about a deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing growth in the United States and China. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 0.9 percent to 753.96, its highest close since May 14.

Seoul shares seen inching down on soft U.S. data

Seoul shares are likely to edge down on Friday as U.S. stocks suffered their worst loss in three weeks the day before due to growing signs of a slowdown in manufacturing growth worldwide. Surveys showed on Thursday that weaker overseas demand slowed U.S. factory growth for 11 months running, while business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.79 percent to close at 1,889.15 points on Thursday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, weekly gain in doubt

Hong Kong shares could end the week lower on Friday, tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street after global manufacturing data disappointed, with the losses poised to wipe out weekly gains for benchmark indices. Global stocks fell 2 percent and Brent crude oil ended at its lowest in 18 months on Thursday as data showing Chinese, European and U.S. manufacturing activity slowing further underscored worries about weaker global growth.

In a measure of negative market sentiment, South African coal miner LontohCoal has delayed its $1 billion Hong Kong initial public offering due to difficult market conditions, extending the time frame for the listing to the end of February next year, its chief executive said. On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slid 1.3 percent to 19,265.1, its biggest one-day loss since a 2 percent drop on June 4. It is up 0.2 percent on the week to date. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.9 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was down 1.7 percent by 0033 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 26th, 2012



CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2390-1.2600
Down
1.2600
1.2460

1.2530
1.2390
1.2600
1.2670
1.2390
USD/JPY
78.70-80.50
Up
79.90
78.70
79.30

80.50
78.70
80.50
78.10
GBP/USD
1.5470-1.5680
Down
1.5680
1.5540

1.5610
1.5470
1.5680
1.5750
1.5470
USD/CHF
0.9510-0.9720
Up
0.9650
0.9510
0.9580

0.9720
0.9510
0.9720
0.9440
AUD/USD
0.9890-1.0100
Down
1.0100
0.9960

1.0030
0.9890
1.0100
1.0170
0.9890
NIKKEI
8510-8720
Down
8720
8580

8650
8510
8720
8790
8510
HANGSENG
18640-19000
Down
19000
18760

18880
18640
19000
19120
18640
KOSPI
238.40-241.70
Down
241.70
239.50

240.60
238.40
241.70
242.80
238.40
GOLD
1572.10-1596.80
Up
1588.60
1572.10
1580.30

1596.80
1572.10
1596.80
1563.80