As Greece Flares, Treasury’s Geithner Endorses Lagarde For IMF Lead

Finance MinisterChristine Lagarde gained a key ally for her effort to be named head of the International Monetary Fund Tuesday, when the Treasury Department issued a statement from Secretary Tim Geithner supporting her candidacy.

The leadership of the IMF, traditionally held by a European, has been up for grabs since the resignation of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was arrested on allegations of sexual assault.

Lagarde is angling for the IMF job at a time when the organization is a central player in the debt crisis throughout the periphery of Europe. The Greek mess continues to play out, with violent protests erupting outside Parliament Tuesday morning on the first day of a two-day strike as lawmakers debate a controversial package of austerity measures.

France has taken a softer line on a potential Greek restructuring of late than fellow European leaders in Germany, recently proposing a plan that would see French banks roll over their debt to give Greece breathing room. The slight change of heart comes as little surprise, given the sizable exposure the banks have to Greek debt. (See “French Banks Hold $93B In Greek Debt, Sarkozy Announces Rollover Deal.”)

See Geithner’s full statement endorsing Lagarde below.

Secretary Geithner Supports Christine Lagarde For IMF Managing Director

6/28/2011 WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued the following statement from Secretary Tim Geithner.“I am pleased to announce our decision to support Christine Lagarde to head the International Monetary Fund. Minister Lagarde’s exceptional talent and broad experience will provide invaluable leadership for this indispensable institution at a critical time for the global economy. We are encouraged by the broad support she has secured among the Fund’s membership, including from the emerging economies. I also want to commend my friend, Agustin Carstens, on his strong and very credible candidacy.”

Sterling support position

pemulihan Pound dari posisi rendah kemarin di area 1.5910 nampaknya telah terhenti tepat di level psikologis 1.6000, untuk kemudian berbalik turun seiring terbebaninya GBP/USD oleh angka GDP Inggris yang lemah. Saat ini Pound ditawarkan pada kisaran 1.5950 setelah sempat menguji support di level 1.5910.

Di bawah area 1.5910/15 (low 27 Jun), pasangan mata uang ini mungkin dapat menjumpai support berikutnya di 1.5825 (low 28 Jan) dan 1.5750 (low 25 Jan). Sebaliknya, level resistensi terdekat berada di area 1.6000 (level psikologis), kemudian di 1.6045/50 (high 24 Jun) dan 1.6080/90 (low 16/17 Jun).

 

Sementara rebound GBP/JPY dari posisi rendah harian di 128.75 telah terbatasi oleh level 129.20, dan kemudian berbalik turun pasca rilis data ekonomi Inggris hingga menyentuh level rendah harian baru di 128.63.

Olli Rehn : Tidak Ada 'Plan B' Untuk Menghindari Default Yunani

Yunani harus menyetujui rencana pemerintah untuk memangkas anggaran hingga sebesar €78 milyar ($111,4) yang tercakup dalam program langkah-langkah penghematan dan penjualan aset sebagai upaya memastikan pencairan bantuan darurat yang sangat dibutuhkan agar Yunani terhindar dari default, kata anggota komisi ekonomi Uni Eropa, Olli Rehn, pada hari Selasa.

"Satu-satunya cara untuk menghindari resiko default adalah parlemen harus mendukung program reformasi ekonomi," katanya. "Program tersebut meliputi strategi fiskal jangka menengah dan program privatisasi, serta harus disetujui oleh parlemen terlebih dahulu sebelum bantuan keuangan tahap berikutnya dapat dicairkan," kata Rehn dalam sebuah pernyataan terkait pencairan bantuan senilai €12 milyar.

 

Rehn menolak berkometar ketika ditanya mengenai kemungkinan para petinggi Eropa tengah mempertimbangkan rencana cadangan dalam kasus langkah-langkah penghematan pemerintah Yunani tidak disetujui parlemen. "Untuk sebagian orang yang suka berspekulasi tentang adanya rencana cadangan, saya tegaskan jika tidak ada rencana B untuk menghindarkan Yunani dari default," katanya.

Krisis Masih Jadi Alasan Koleksi Emas

Emas menguat di sesi London akibat kekhawatiran krisis utang Yunani yang tingkatkan permintaan terhadap emas sebagai instrumen perlindungan kekayaan.Petinggi ECB, Juergen Stark, utarakan kepada harian Die Welt bahwa dia tidak yakin masyarakat internasional mau tolong Yunani jika Athena tidak menerapkan rencana penghematan-nya pada bulan Juli.

"Permintaan emas sebagai aset safe-haven akan meningkat, terutama di jangka pendek akibat ketidakpastian hasil voting Yunani," ungkap WilliamAdams, analis Basemetals.com. Perdana Menteri Yunani, George Papandreou, telah meminta parlemen untuk dukung kebijakan penghematan yang lebih drastic. Kegagalan untuk loloskan rencana penghematan dapat memicu default untuk pertama kalinya di zona-euro.

 

"Krisis Eropa belum berakhir," ungkap Kunal Shah, pimpinan riset Nirmal Bang Commodities. “Meski emas masih berpeluang jatuh hingga area 1475/70; namun sulit beri rekomendasi jual jika belum tercapai solusi permanen atas krisis utang zona-euro.”

 

Dari sisi teknikal, emas masih berada di channel bearish. 1505.35, harga tertinggi 27 Juni, akan menjadi resisten dimana penembusan akan buka peluang pengujian 1511.10, harga terendah 13 Juni. 1496.15, harga terendah hari ini, merupakan support dimana kejatuhan lewati level tersebut dapat uji 1491.00, harga terendah 27 Juni. 

Gold : Potensial Bentuk Double Bottom, Tapi Mungkin Bullish ke $1,512.35-1,517.40

Emas pada grafik 1-jam berpotensi membentuk pola double bottom dengan baseline yang juga merupakan level konfirmasi dari pola tersebut berada dikisaran 1503.50. Senada dengan hal tersebut, peluang terjadinya penguatan juga terlihat pada pergerakan CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini cenderung bergerak bullish. Jika baseline area tersebut berhasil ditembus, besar kemungkinan harga akan membidik area 1512.35 hingga 1517.40. Namun sebaliknya jika baseline tersebut mampu bertahan, waspadai pergerakan bearish yang mungkin terjadi menuju area support dikisaran 1491.00.

Wall Street

Saham Amerika Serikat (AS) membukukan rally pada hari Senin kemarin (27/06). Penurunan inflasi menjadi motor penggerak bagi harga ekuitas.

Inflasi lebih rendah di AS merupakan kabar baik bagi sektor keuangan. Mengingat sebanyak 90% perusahaan komponen bursa adalah pengguna komoditi. Banyak di antara mereka sangat berharap pada pengurangan tensi inflasi, seperti Ford, General Motors, DuPont, Dow Chemical hingga Nike dan Caterpillar. 

 

Menurut Jim Cramer, pakar keuangan dan pengamat pasar, hal tersebut menjadi titik balik penguatan bursa hari Senin. Banyak orang berpendapat bahwa penurunan harga komoditi berdampak tidak bagus terhadap portofolio besar seperti Freeport. Padahal, banyak perusahaan lain justru diuntungkan oleh harga komoditi yang lebih rendah. Anggaran korporasi bisa diperkecil sehingga estimasi pendapatan periode mendatang bisa naik. Proyeksi laba yang dibuat perusahaan beberapa waktu ke belakang mengacu pada harga komoditi yang tinggi. Jika inflasi dan komoditi tidak terlalu tinggi, maka sesungguhnya tingkat pendapatan dapat lebih baik. Oleh karena itu, harga saham otomatis meningkat. 

 

"Kondisi ini membuat kinerja perusahaan meningkat, namun belum terwujud dalam bentuk earnings karena harga komoditi masih bergejolak," ujar Cramer. Jika benar masa inflasi tinggi sudah berakhir, maka waktunya bagi korporasi untuk menikmati marjin laba yang bagus. 

Dollar sebagai 'Global Reserve'

 AS akan kehilangan statusnya sebagai mata uang global dalam 25 tahun mendatang. Demikian menurut sebuah survei antar manajer bank sentral yang secara kolektif mengelola dana lebih dari $8,000 miliar.

Lebih dari separuh total jumlah manajer yang disurvei oleh UBS memperkirakan bahwa posisi USD akan tergantikan oleh sekumpulan portofolio mata uang lain. Perubahan tersebut diperkirakan terjadi pada 25 tahun ke depan. 

Euro Analysis : Uji Sinyal di Area 1.4360 – 1.4444

berhasil rebound dan menguji area bearish trendline. Jika level tersebut pecah, terbuka peluang terjadinya penguatan lanjutan menuju area 1.4360 hingga area 1.4444. Namun waspadai kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini berada dalam area overbought dan berpotensi memicu pergerakan bearish menuju area 1.4230 hingga 1.4101 jika trendline tersebut mampu bertahan.

Sterling Analisa : Konsolidasi di 1.5936 – 1.6013

 cenderung terkonsolidasi dikisaran 1.5936 hingga 1.6013 pada sesi perdagangan kemarin. Saat ini GBPUSD terlihat menguji area resistance dikisaran 1.6013. Jika level resistance tersebut pecah, maka besar kemungkinan harga akan bergerak naik membidik area resistance selanjutnya yang juga merupakan area bearish trendline dikisaran 1.6098. Namun waspadai pecahnya level support dikisaran 1.5936 karena jika level tersebut pecah, maka terbuka peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area 1.5860.

Speculators Increase Bullish Gold, Silver Positions, Cut PGMs — CFTC Data

added to their bullish gold and silver U.S. futures and options positions, but cut exposure to the platinum group metals and copper, according to U.S. government data.

In the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s commitment of traders data released late Friday, fund-type traders built up their gold and silver net-long positions as noted in both the disaggregated and legacy reports. The data is current as of June 21, so it does not include the break in prices those markets suffered later in the week. The losses in the platinum group metals and copper inspired exiting of long positions, as seen in the data.

August gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $22 an ounce during that time, settling on June 21 at $1,546.40. Comex July silver rose 96.8 cents an ounce and settled at $36.379. Nymex July platinum slid $47.70 an ounce, settling at $1,747.20, while September palladium fell $25.50 an ounce to $809.50. Comex July copper fell 6.65 cents to $4.0885 a pound.

Managed-money traders in the disaggregated report for gold significantly increased their gross long positions, raising them by 21,709 contracts and cut their gross shorts by 972 contracts, lifting the net-long to 226,501 contracts. Producers increased gross longs and gross shorts, but added many more shorts, which increased their net-short position, while swap dealers reduced gross longs and added to gross shorts, hiking their net-short position. In the legacy report, non-commercials added 21,315 gross long contracts and added 4,379 contracts, allowing the net-long to rise to 238,788 contracts. Commercials added gross longs and gross shorts, lowering their net-short position.

Barclays Capital noted this is the highest speculative long since April, while Commerzbank said the big bump in gross longs was also the sharpest rise in positions in four and one-half months.

Managed-money accounts in silver increased their gross longs by 2,848 contracts and cut their gross shorts by 1,207 contracts, which allowed the net-long to rise to 20,296 contracts. The producers trimmed gross longs and hiked gross shorts, which raised their net-short position. Swap dealers cut both gross longs and shorts, but cut more shorts, allowing their net-short position to fall. In the legacy report, funds raised gross longs by 1,621 contracts and erased 1,289 gross short contracts, hiking the net-long to 25,735 contracts. Commercials cut exposure on both sides, lifting their net-short position.

Morgan Stanley said that the data suggest speculators are starting to re-build long positions following May’s sharp long liquidation in gold and silver.

Despite the current gains in gross long positions, Commerzbank said prices for metals could be under pressure as investors practice risk aversion.

That could lead to erasing of some of the new longs established in this report.

Speculators sliced net-long positions in the platinum group metals as they cut gross longs and added to gross shorts. Managed-money accounts are net-long 17,122 contracts in platinum and net-long 11,183 contracts in palladium. Non-commercials cut their gross long position and increased their gross short position, reducing the net-longs for both PGMs. Non-commercials are net-long 20,127 contracts in platinum and net-long 12,648 contracts in palladium.

Copper saw a decrease in the net-long for the managed-money accounts, too. Their net-long now stands at 7,481 contracts. In the legacy report, however, the non-commercials’ net-long fell to 9,778 contracts. Commercials lowered their net-shorts by adding more gross long positions than gross short positions.

“While financial investors are currently not giving any support to copper prices, there is still high price potential here in our view in case they start to increasingly bet on rising prices in the next few weeks and months,” Commerzbank said.

Gold inches up on weaker dollar, Greece bailout hopes

SINGAPORE, Spot gold edged higher onTuesday, supported by a weaker dollar as the euro 

rallied on hopes that Greece's parliament will pass an austerity plan toavoid a sovereign debt

default. 

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,500.25 an ounce, off a five-week low of $1,490.30 in the 

    previous session. Spot gold has posted losses for three straight trading days. 

 * U.S. gold GCcv1 also rose 0.3 percent to $1,501.10. 

 * A weaker dollar lent support for bullion prices, as the euro extended gains from the previous 

    session on expectations that Greece's parliament will approve a fiscal austerity package  

    needed for the country to get emergency aid. 

 * Greece's parliament began on Monday to debate the unpopular austerity plan, and is 

   expected to vote on it on Wednesday.  

 * The U.S economy continued to show signs of deceleration, as consumer spending failed to 

    rise in May, breaking 10 straight months of gains.  

 MARKET NEWS 

 * U.S. stocks rose from three days of losses on Monday, led by banks after news of more 

    favorable capital requirements and optimism over Greece's austerity plan.

 * U.S. crude oil rose above $91 a barrel on Tuesday as the euro rallied against the dollar. 

Gold slides below $1,500/oz as dollar strengthens

, Gold prices eased on Monday, briefly touching near six-week lows in early trade, as the euro suffered from concerns over the outlook for euro zone debt, and amid broad-based selling of commodities.

Spot gold was bid at $1,495.06 an ounce at 1338 GMT, against $1,499.53 late in New York on Friday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCv1 fell $4.70 an ounce to $1,496.20.

Simmering worries over this week's Greek parliamentary vote on austerity measures and its impact on a European Union bailout package are pressuring the euro lower versus the dollar. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-priced assets.

"Having discounted all the current market fundamentals, gold seems to be waiting for fresh market cues for the immediate move," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services.

"Technically charts are pointing at further weakness and this is reflected by the excessive strength portrayed by the U.S. dollar over the last couple of days," he added. "Oil under $90 a barrel could further bearishness to the market."

Gold fell as low as $1,490.90 an ounce in early trade as oil and industrial metals extended last week's hefty drop. U.S. crude oil futures fell towards $90 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it would release emergency reserves, and copper, lead and nickel prices also slipped.

Commodities have come under pressure from gains in the dollar and concerns that euro zone debt problems could cause further ructions in the currency markets.

The euro fell after Moody's said Greek banks have lost about 8 percent of their private-sector customer deposits so far this year. The ratings agency warned that those institutions would face severe cash shortage if outflows mount to 35 percent of their deposits.

A Greek minister warned on Monday of "catastrophe" if parliament blocked a 28 billion-euro ($40 billion) package of tax increases and spending cuts in a parliamentary ballot expected on Wednesday.

Germany's deputy finance minister said on Monday the euro is in danger of losing credibility.

COMMODITIES SOLD HEAVILY

Worries over sovereign risk contagion on the euro zone were a key factor pushing gold prices to record highs earlier this year, though they were not enough to prevent the precious metal being caught up in heavy selling of commodities last week.

"We do not expect the price to retreat much further," Commerzbank said in a note. "This week sees the debate and vote on the austerity measures in Greece, with ratification a condition for additional financial support. It is still uncertain whether parliament will give its approval."

Money managers raised bullish bets in COMEX gold futures and options to the highest level since the week of April 24 in the week ended June 21, as bullion climbed to within $20 of its record, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Speculators in silver futures and options also upped their net long positions, as safe-haven demand for precious metals grew in response to disappointing economic data from the United States and persistent concerns surrounding Europe's debt crisis.

Physical gold demand, especially from Asian buyers, picked up as prices fell towards multi-month lows, but this is unlikely to put the brakes on gold's correction for long, traders said.

"There has been good demand on the dips and I think that will continue, but that is not going to be enough ion its own right, if people are in liquidation mode, to reverse a downward trend," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Silver was bid at $33.63 an ounce against $34.26, reflecting losses in other industrial metals. Platinum was at $1,671.49 an ounce against $1,672.99, and palladium at $718.47 against $726.80.

Gold : Masih tetap dengan rentan bearish jika tak tembus 1511

 spot emas terpantau masih tertekan dibawah $1,500 di hari Selasa, seiring dengan Euro yang menguat terhadap dollar menjelang voting di parlemen Yunani guna membahas kebijakan pengetatan sehingga mendorong minat dan selera investor terhadap aset-aset beresiko.

Namun secara teknikal harga Emas nampak kesulitan untuk menembus ke atas resisten $1506 (Fibonacci 61.8%), padahal penembusan di atas area ini dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan momentum bullish menuju $1520 atau bahkan area $1532.

 

Sementara level support terdekat ada pada area $1494 dan $1490, break ke bawah area ini dapat memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menuju area $1485.

 

Secara keseluruhan selama harga berada di bawah area $1506, bias harga spot emas masih “bearish”.

 

 

USD mulai mendapat tekanan

Emas bergerak naik hari Selasa (28/06). Harga didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS di tengah rally euro. Optimisme bailout Yunani memperkuat nilai tukar mata uang tunggal.

Spot emas menguat 0.3% ke $1,500.25 per ons atau naik dari level rendah 5-pekan ($1,490.30) pada sesi terdahulu. Spot emas telah mencetak penurunan selama 3 hari perdagangan. Kontrak emas AS juga naik 0.3% ke $1,501.10.