Rabu, 29 Agustus 2012

Fundamental Analysis, August 28th, 2012

Hong Kong shares seen inching higher, chart level supports

Hong Kong shares could inch higher on Tuesday, though any climbs will be marginal as investors wait for a meeting of central bankers later this week for fresh signs of easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
   
Corporate earnings will stay a focus, with Air China , China Life Insurance Co Ltd and China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd reporting first half results later in the day. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> on Monday slipped 0.4 percent to 19,798.7, finishing just above chart support at its 200-day moving average, now at around 19,764.8. It has finished above that technical level on all but one session since July 31.

Seoul shares seen rangebound, investors await Jackson Hole


Seoul stocks are seen rangebound on Tuesday as investors await news of possible stimulus from top central banks later this week, with support for the market from a credit rating upgrade. Moody's upgrade of South Korea's credit rating on Monday was unlikely to provide strong upward momentum in the short-term, analysts said, but rather brace the main board from drastic dips until possible central bank policies become clearer.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> edged down just 0.1 percent on Monday to close at 1,917.87 points, even as Samsung group shares fell sharply after a patent ruling favouring rival Apple Inc.
   
The effect of Samsung Electronics' tumble was limited to individual shares, unlike the widespread effect of the European crisis or concerns over deteriorating fundamentals," said Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Woori Investment and Securities. Even if Samsung continues to weigh, chances are the main board will hold at the current level or even seek positive territory.

Global stocks held on to recent gains on Monday while U.S. Treasuries rose as investors looked ahead to a meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday for possible stimulus clues from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

Nikkei seen boxed in range, cenbank signals eyed


Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to hold a tight range on Tuesday as investors wait on a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke later this week for hints on any further stimulus steps. The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 9,050 and 9,150, strategists said, with Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closing at 9,100 on Monday, up 0.2 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 9,080. "I don't see any big news overnight that could affect the market," said Eiji Kinouchi, chief technical analyst at Daiwa Securities. 

"Foreign investors' trading yesterday was subdued. This is their last week of summer holiday before U.S. Labor Day. So we are likely to see a range-bound trade today." Bernanke is due to speak in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, while European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi will take the podium the following day. Bernanke has used this event in the previous two years to signal further easing. 

Banking on a quick fix by the ECB to bring down high borrowing costs for Spain and Italy, the Nikkei has rebounded 9.1 percent since hitting a seven-week low on July 25. The index is up 7.5 percent for 2012. On Monday, the Nikkei added 0.2 percent to 9,085.39, holding below its five-day moving average at 9,124.59 and its 26-week moving average at 9,119.58.

Euro lower versus dollar; Bernanke ahead


The euro fell against the dollar on Monday in thin trading after a bigger-than-expected drop in German business sentiment even as it raised hopes in some that the euro zone's largest economy will do more to revive the bloc's growth.  Sentiment toward the euro remained uncertain as markets awaited a series of key events next month, including the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Sept. 6, followed by the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the euro zone's permanent bailout fund on Sept. 12.

A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due on Friday will also be keenly watched by market players for any signs of action by the U.S. central bank to spur tepid growth. German business sentiment dropped for a fourth straight month in August to reach its lowest since March 2010, the Munich-based Ifo think tank said, with the business climate hit by increasing worries about the future level of exports.

The euro hit a session high of $1.2535 <EUR=> on Reuters data after the Ifo survey was released, but gradually lost ground to trade at $1.2499, closer to the session low of $1.2488, and down 0.1 percent on the day.  Volume was thin with London shut for a holiday. Against the yen, the euro was little changed at 98.44 yen <EURJPY=>. The dollar was up 0.1 percent at 78.74 yen <JPY=>.

The Australian dollar <AUD=> skidded to a one-month low and looked vulnerable to further losses on fresh concerns about China's economy. The Aussie is often used to express views on the world's second-largest economy. The Aussie dollar was last down 0.3 percent at $1.0373.

Gold eases from early 4-1/2 month high, eyes Fed

Gold hit a 4-1/2 month high before ending slightly lower on Monday, as investors took profits after an early rally on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may unveil another round of monetary stimulus at a central bankers' meeting later this week. The precious metal, a traditional inflation hedge, received a boost after Fed Chairman Bernanke last week wrote to a U.S. congressional panel that the Fed has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy.

Bullion investors are awaiting the annual symposium of central bankers and finance ministers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bernanke is due to deliver a speech on Friday. The metal rose nearly 3.5 percent last week, its biggest one-week rise since late January, and analysts said gold looked set to rise further after breaking the top part of a four-month-old trading range.    

Spot gold <XAU=> hit $1,676.45 an ounce before ended down 0.3 percent at $1,665.20 an ounce by 3:53 p.m. EDT (1953 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> for December delivery, however, settled up $2.70 an ounce at $1,675.60, as the futures market settled prior to a wave of late selling that turned spot prices into losses. Spot silver <XAG=> eased 0.2 percent at $30.72 an ounce after hitting a near-four-month high of $31.26, building on last week's gain of nearly 10 percent which was its largest weekly rise since last October.

Wall Street ends flat but Apple notches another high


Shares of Apple hit another record on Monday to keep the Nasdaq index afloat in the lowest trading volume of the year, with investors looking ahead to a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday.

Apple Inc <AAPL.O> hit an all-time high of $680.87 during the day after the iPad maker won a $1 billion judgment in a patent lawsuit against Samsung Electronics <005930.KS>. The Korean company said it would contest the verdict. Apple, the world's most valuable company, ended up 1.9 percent at $676.68. The verdict on Friday jolted shares of Google Inc <GOOG.O>, as the case could change the dynamics of the mobile device market. Companies using Google's Android system may have to consider design changes. Google shares declined 1.4 percent to $669.22.  

Beyond the notable moves of those tech giants, investors mostly cooled their heels before Bernanke's remarks to central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. Data showed volume was 4.46 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is about 6.6 billion.  

Expectations are for Fed action of some kind next month, but Bernanke is likely to keep markets guessing about the timing of another round of bond purchases. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 33.30 points, or 0.25 percent, at 13,124.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 0.69 points, or 0.05 percent, at 1,410.44.The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 3.40 points, or 0.11 percent, at 3,073.19.

Oil Falls on Speculation Isaac Will Have Limited Impact


Oil fell for a third day on speculation that Tropical Storm Isaac will have limited impact on production in the Gulf of Mexico. Futures dropped as forecasts called for Isaac to go ashore Aug. 29 south of New Orleans as a Category 1 storm, the weakest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. Losses narrowed after the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Isaac has shut 78 percent of Gulf production, up from 24 percent reported yesterday.

Oil for October delivery fell 68 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $95.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose as much as 1.6 percent earlier to $97.72. The price is down 3.4 percent this year. Brent oil for October slid $1.33, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $112.26 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Isaac was 280 miles (450 kilometers) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with top winds of 65 miles per hour and moving northwest at 14 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2 p.m. East Coast time.

Technical Analysis, August 29th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2450-1.2660
Up
1.2660
1.2450
1.2520

1.2660
1.2450
1.2590
1.2380
USD/JPY
77.50-79.30
Down
79.90
78.10

78.70
77.50
79.30
79.30
77.50
GBP/USD
1.5710-1.5920
Up
1.5920
1.5710
1.5780

1.5920
1.5710
1.5850
1.5640
USD/CHF
0.9450-0.9660
Down
0.9730
0.9520

0.9590
0.9450
0.9660
0.9660
0.9450
AUD/USD
1.0260-1.0470
Up
1.0470
1.0260


1.0470
1.0260
1.0400
1.0190
NIKKEI
8910-9150
Up
9150
8910
8990

9150
8910
9070
8830
HANGSENG
19610-19970
Up
19970
19610
19730

19970
19610
19850
19490
KOSPI
251.60-254.90
Up
254.90
251.60
252.70

254.90
251.60
253.80
250.50
GOLD
1654.60-1679.30
Up
1679.30
1654.60
1662.80

1679.30
1654.60
1671.10
1646.30

Pasar Berharap Terhadap Pidato Bernanke Hari Jumat

  Pasar Berharap Terhadap Pidato Bernanke Hari Jumat  Antusias pasar terhadap pidato dari Ben Bernanke di Jackson Hole pada hari Jumat kian besar, dan sejauh ini masih belum banyak yang dapat disampaikan oleh gubernur Fed tersebut pada pasar. Bernanke dijadwalkan berpidato pada pukul 9 malam hari Jumat dalam event symposium tahunan Fed di Wyoming, dan trader berharap dapat melihat lebih dalam mengenai apa yang sedang direncanakan oleh Fed, termasuk kemungkinan dan kapan Fed akan mengambil langkah pelonggaran tambahan.

Bagaimanapun juga, ekonom dan pengamat Fed tidak memperkirakan Bernanke untuk mengatakan sesuatu yangb aru, seiring Fed terus memperhatikan data ekonomi yang akan dirilis menjelang pertemuan tanggal 12 September nanti. “Menurutku Bernanke tidak akan mensinyalkan apa yang akan dilakukan oleh Fed. Terlalu dekat dan awal baginya untuk mensinyalkan segalanya,” ucap Bruce Kasman, kepala ekonom pada JPMorgan. Pidato dari Bernanke menyusul pekan-pekan penuh dengan spekulasi mengenai apakah Fed akan meluncurkan quantitative easing atau program pembelian aset lanjutan.

Lelang Obligasi Spanyol Cukup Sukses

Lelang Obligasi Spanyol Cukup SuksesHarapan akan adanya kebijakan intervensi ECB berhasil membantu lelang obligasi Spanyol. Madrid berhasil mendapatkan dana €3,6 miliar, melebihi target €3,5 miliar ketika menjual surat utang bertenor tiga bulan. Biaya pinjaman juga mereda dengan yield obligasi yang hanya mencapai 0,946%; jauh lebih baik dari lelang sebelumnya yang mencapai 2,434%. 

Biaya pinjaman obligasi pemerintah bermasalah di zona-Eurolah mereda belakangan setelah zona-euro sepakat untuk perbolehkan dana bailout ESM untuk membeli obligasi pemerintah demi redakan gejolak Krisis Hutang lebih lanjut. ECB kini bahkan tengah menyusun skema pembelian obligasi yang mungkin dapat digunakan berbarengan dengan ESM demi membuat kebijakan intervensi lebih efektif.Sementara itu, euro menguat di sesi New York. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.2545, dekat level tinggi harian 1.2561

Yunani Rencanakan Zona Ekonomi Khusus

Yunani Rencanakan Zona Ekonomi KhususYunani berencana membentuk zona ekonomi khusus demi menarik investasi dan membantu keluarkan ekonomi dari jurang resesi. "Zona ini akan memberikan insentif pajak dan administrasi bagi investor. Athena telah berdiskusi dengan Komisi Eropa mendapatkan persetujuan," tutur Menteri Pengembangan Costis Hatzidakis. 

Yunani tengah mengembangkan berbagai kebijakan demi mengakhiri resesi yang telah memasuki tahun kelimanya. Zona ekonomi khusus telah banyak diterapkan di negara berkembang untuk mendongkrak pertumbuhan. Hatzidakis mendesak mitra Eropa-nya untuk menyetujui rencana Yunani. "Kami sudah melihat adanya keberatan karena zona tersebut dapat memberikan keuntungan komparatif," tutur Hatzidaksis. Sementara itu, Euro menguat di sesi New York. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.2541, menjauhi level rendah harian 1.2561

Macquire: Waktu Hampir Habis Bagi Pembuat Kebijakan Cina

Macquire: Waktu Hampir Habis Bagi Pembuat Kebijakan CinaMacquaire mengatakan”waktu hampir habis bagi para pembuat kebijakan China,” berdasarkan catatannya mengenai hasil survei awal dalam dua minggu terakhir tentang (data HSBC China Flash PMI dan flash MNI China business), ekonomi Cina disarankan untuk terus  berjuang di bulan Agustus, seperti yang disuarakan oleh Perdana Mentri Wen pada perjalanan pada akhir pekan ke Guangdong yaitu “dalam kegiatan ekspor berikutnya akan menghadapi kesulitan dan ketidakpastian” dan seruannya untuk”bertindak sesuai target” agar dapat memastikan pertumbuhan ekspor menjadi stabil. Macquarie mengatakan bahwa bank sentral mengambil dana sebesar 365 juta yuan untuk membeli surat utang untuk menyehatkan likuiditas antar bank. Tindakan ini mengarah pada ekspektasi pasar untuk adanya Pelonggaran Moneter,” ini berarti akan ada tindakan lainnya berupa pemotongan suku bunga, jika salah satu terjadi pada minggu-minggu mendatang, bisa memberikan kejutan positif untuk banyak orang

Emas Masih Terdukung Harapan Stimulus

Emas Masih Terdukung Harapan Stimulus Emas kembali naik pada hari Selasa seiring lemahnya data kepercayaan konsumen AS menambah spekulasi adanya tambahan stimulus dari Federal Reserve, namun sejumlah analis memperingatkan kemungkinan aksi jual besar-besaran jika bank sentral AS tidak commit kepada pelonggaran moneter. Harga emas terus naik seiring pelemahan dollar setelah ekspektasi investor bahwa Fed akan merilis stimulus tambahan pada symposium tahunan pejabat bank sentral dan menteri keuangan di Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Bernanke akan berpidato pada hari Jumat.
 
Investor emas dapat dengan cepat menguragi posisi bullish jika Bernanke tidak menunjukkan kesiapan untuk meluncurkan QE3, ucap analis. "Harga emas dapat terkoreksi, mungkin sangat tajam, jika pidato Bernanke lagi-lagi menjauhkan Fed dari pelonggaran kebijakan moneter tambahan," ucap James Steel, analis pada HSBC.