Gold today

Saat ini pergerakan emas terlihat berada di atas area support dari Andrew Pitchfrok. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi potensial bullish dan saat ini diindikasikan emas akan menguat ke garis median. Pecahnya resistan 1406.40 akan membawa harga emas menguat ke 1417. Sebaliknya jika support 1386.35 ditembus maka emas akan melemah 1367.70.

G-7 Akan Bantu Pelemahan Yen

Kencangnya penguatan yen akan memaksa negara lain membantu Jepang lemahkan mata uangnya yang makin ancam pemulihan paska gempa dan tsunami. Analis Citigroup, Brown Brothers Harriman, dan Mizuho Securities utarakan Jepang akan bekerja-sama dengan negara maju lainnya demi balikkan penguatan yen yang sempat sentuh 76.30 terhadap dollar pagi ini.

Menteri Keuangan Jepang Yoshihiko Noda utarakan menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral negara G-7 akan langsungkan diskusi besok untuk bahas keadaan paska gempa. "Meski belum ada tanda intervensi, kemungkinan-nya meningkat dalam 24 jam ke depan," ungkap Greg Anderson, strategis Citigroup. "G-7 akan terkoordinasi kebijakan."

“Jika G-7 setuju stabilkan pergerakan yen  maka Jepang, AS, dan Eropa akan jual yen, beli dollar dan euro," papar Yasunari Ueno, ekonom Mizuho Investor. "Pergerakan yen belakangan ini tentu dapatkan perhatian khusus BoJ," ungkap Win Thin, strategis Brown Brothers Harriman. "Volatilitas seperti sekarang akan dorong intervensi BoJ, yang tentunya diizinkan G-7."

G 7

Pasar Eropa mengawali perdagangan hari Kamis dengan positif seiring meredanya kepanikan yang timbul di awal sesi Asia, dengan para investor menaruh harapan besar terhadap pertemuan G7 besok sebagai upaya mencari solusi untuk memperkecil dampak krisis nuklir Jepang terhadap perekonomian global.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 berhasil mengumpulkan 1,45%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing menguat 0,9% dan 1,04%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE diperdagangkan hampir 1% lebih tinggi dalam satu jam setelah pembukaan.

 

Sentimen pasar Eropa berangsur membaik setelah Menteri Keuangan Perancis Lagarde mengumumkan bahwa negara-negara G7 dan bank sentral akan melakukan pertemuan besok, yang telah memunculkan harapan tentang adanya sebuah intervensi terkoordinasi guna mendukung pemulihan ekonomi global dari dampak tsunami dan krisis nuklir Jepang.

gold up

Emas pulih dan akan lanjutkan penguatan seiring memburuknya gejolak Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara serta krisis nuklir Jepang yang tingkatkan permintaan terhadap aset safe haven. Lebih dari 300 pekerja berlomba untuk cegah penyebaran radiasi reaktor nuklir Fukushima paska gempa dan tsunami. Helikopter siram air seberat 30 metrik ton untuk dinginkan reaktor. Belum ada peningkatan radiasi, namun AS berencana evakuasi warganya yang ingin tinggalkan Jepang. Sementara itu, pesawat terbang Muammar Qaddafi bombardir pangkalan udara Benghazi demi kuasai pusat pemerintahan pemberontak. PBB masih berdebat apakah akan bertindak demi hentikan kekerasan di Libya. Di Bahrain, polisi tangkapi pemimpin oposisi dan paksa demonstran bubar. "Situasi di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara buat investor enggan untuk jual emas dan kini kita hadapi krisis nuklir Jepang," ujar Bernard Sin, petinggi MKS Finance. "Tidak ada alternatif investasi yang aman sekarang selain emas."

Jual Yen: “Perdagangan Dekade Terkini” – BNP Paribas

Yen kembali menguat terhadap dollar AS walaupun Jepang dilanda gempa terkait ekspektasi kembalinya aliran (dana). USD/JPY kembali mengancam level-level rendahnya setelah menyentuh 80.50 hari Selasa, dan membuat penguatan besar-besaran terhadap mata uang yang lebih beresiko seperti dollar Australia, Euro maupun Sterling. Akan tetapi BNP Paribas melihat hal ini sebagai “tren perdagangan dekade terkini” dan mengatakan untuk kembali menjual Yen.
 

Seorang analis mata uang dari sebuah bank yang berbasis di Perancis, Mary Nicola menerangkan kepada Reuters Insider mengapa bertahannya pergerakan bearish terhadap Yen masih dapat dimaklumi.

Ketika ditanya alasan Yen bergerak turun mendekati level saat ini di sekitar 80 dan pada akhirnya naik ke 105 menjelang akhir tahun, Mary mengatakan: "Saya pikir terdapat perbedaan yang besar sekali antara yang kami lihat selama gempa di Kobe pada tahun 1995 dibandingkan sekarang. Hal yang besar dan yang melatarbelakangi pergerakan yang mempengaruhi posisi keuangan di Jepang, yang saat ini memburuk dari sebelumnya di 1995 dimana Jepang harus menerima kenyataan bahwa mereka saat ini tidak mampu berbuat apa-apa, maka Jepang harus fokus pada kebijakan moneter dan BOJ harus mengembangkan neraca mereka”.

Yen Today

USDJPY saat ini terlihat cenderung bearish menuju area support dikisaran 80.598. hal tersebut juga diperkuat dengan adanya sinyal bearish dari pergerakan CCI dan juga Stochastic. Jika area tersebut pecah, ada peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area 79.964. Namun jika support tersebut mampu bertahan, ada peluang rebound menuju area resistance yang juga merupakan area trendline dikisaran 81.232.

Yen Melejit

Yen naik ke level tertingginya ditengah gejolak pasar terhadap dollar AS hari Kamis sebelum kembali ke level 80-an, bangkit ditengah perdagangan yang sangat ramai, bervolatilitas tinggi seiring pecahnya puncak harga sebelumnya memicu dalamnya aksi stop-loss dan penjualan.

Menguatnya mata uang yang mewakili permasalahan yang dialami Jepang saat ini yang berusaha menanggulangi memburuknya krisis nuklir, meyakinkan bahwa pelaku pasar bahwa hal ini hanya masalah waktu sebelum pihak otoritas Jepang melakukan intervensi kepada penguatan Yen.

 

Importir Jepang dan para pemain jangka pendek kembali membeli dollar AS, membantu mengangkat dollar AS kembali ke 79.65 Yen dari level rendahnya selama ini di 76.25 menurut EBS.

 

Junya Tanase, seorang strategist forex dari JPMorgan Chase di Tokyo, mengatakan bahwa terdapat potensi di pasar bahwa pergerakan pasar telah bergerak terlalu jauh dalam periode jangka pendek, tetapi kecenderungan intervensi masih ada.

Yen Hits Record High on Dollar; Will Central Banks Intervene?

The yen rallied to a new all-time high against the dollar as traders speculated G-7 central bankers may getting ready to intervene to drive the currency lower.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said early Thursday that he is closely watching foreign exchange markets, but he declined to comment on intervention. He said there have been nervous moves in thin markets.

Just before 5 p.m. New York time Wednesday, dollar yen broke through the 79.75 level and continued to tumble to as low as about 77. Reuters reported that the G-7 finance ministers are expected to hold a conference call Thursday evening New York time to discuss the crisis in Japan.

"It was testing the all time low, testing, testing. Then it went though it. It was just like an air pocket really. It just went crunch right through," said Deutsche Bank chief currency strategist Alan Ruskin. "The absence of the central bank has been stunning actually."

The yen [JPY=X  79.19    1.53  (+1.97%)   ] has been rising since the 9.0 magnitude earth quake struck Friday, on speculation that Tokyo would be repatriating yen to pay for the damage.  The uncertainty about Japan's nuclear crisis has caused even more speculation, as investors watch the struggle to control damaged nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

"The irony is the worse things get in Japan, the stronger the yen gets," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "I don't think it ends unless the central bank comes in and intervenes. There's so much sentiment on the side of long yen that it's going to take a lot of capital to push dollar yen back up. The one thing I can assure you of is this is going to be a very volatile night."

The dollar has periodically attempted to strengthen against the currency but it has largely been lower in the last several days. "It really raises the question of how much the central bank is really functioning. There might be other factors at play. I think you have to be a little wary. G-7 has a conference call. I can't imagine these guys are going to let this thing go into freefall," said Ruskin.

"If there was any time for coordinated intervention it would be now," said Ruskin.

At the same time, the Swiss franc [CHF=X  0.8987    -0.0001  (-0.01%)   ] was making new highs against the dollar in early evening trading in a flight-to-safety trade. "It's a kind of straight forward 'all hell's breaking loose' between the Middle East and Japan," said Ruskin.

Currency markets also were rife with rumors that the Tokyo Stock Exchange wouldn't open for trading on Thursday, which the exchange denied.

Central Banks Set to Tighten Despite Japan Crisis

Is there a march to raise interest rates in the face of the disaster in Japan? Some investors are starting to doubt it, but the threat of inflation means most rate hikes are likely to go ahead.

Before the earthquake, central banks around the world were gearing up to tighten policy. Now markets are scaling back their pricing of future rate rises, as it becomes clear the damage to Japan's economy could be worse than originally thought. Click here for CNBC's Special Report on the Disaster in Japan.

But unless there is a widespread, long-term crisis over Japan's nuclear power plants, the economic impact on the rest of the world still does not seem as if it will be nearly large enough to alter central banks' intentions.

"The good news/bad news is that Japan has not been an engine of global or Asian growth for some time," said IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh.

"This means that the impact of much lower Japanese growth on the world economy will probably be limited and small."

Norway's central bank signalled on Wednesday it would raise interest rates slightly sooner than originally expected because inflation was picking up. It kept its key interest rate flat but issued a forecast implying a hike by June.

Its policy statement made a brief reference to Japan, saying the effect on global growth was "uncertain," but focused mainly on issues such as global commodity prices and government spending curbs elsewhere in Europe.

Europe

In Europe, Euribor futures contracts for April show the market expects the euro zone's benchmark interbank rate to be trading at 1.285 percent in a month's time, about 5 basis points lower than pricing before the earthquake.

Since Euribor historically trades around 10-15 bps above the European Central Bank's refinancing rate, now at 1.00 percent, the market is no longer fully pricing in a 25 bp hike at the ECB's April policy meeting.

There have been a few signs that European economic confidence may be hit by Japan; on Tuesday, the ZEW think tank said its index of German analyst and investor sentiment unexpectedly fell in March, partly due to Japan.

Asked by the German daily Handelsblatt whether the Japanese disaster could influence ECB policy, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer said: "We will as usual take account of all new information and that will be part of our global assessment."

However, the latest private estimates of damage to the global economy remain small; IHS Global said it would be negligible this year, at most in the 0.1 to 0.2 percent range, with a corresponding boost next year.

Although oil and commodity prices have fallen back since the earthquake, they are still well above levels a year earlier, and could well rebound later this year as demand for reconstruction in Japan kicks in.

And analysts said most of the drop in the ZEW index was due not to Japan but to expectations for a euro zone interest rate rise, after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet called early this month for "strong vigilance" against inflation, a signal that a hike could well come in April.

Because Trichet put some of the ECB's inflation-fighting credibility on the line with that statement, it would take a drastic deterioration in the outlook for the global economy or financial markets for the central bank to change course now, many analysts said.

"Maybe the ECB was a bit too fast in preannouncing the interest rate hike, which painted them into the corner," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. "It needs a lot for them to postpone a rate hike."

Brzeski said he now saw a 75 percent chance of an April rate increase, against 95 percent in early March.

Britain

In Britain, investors have in the last few days dramatically pushed back the earliest date on which they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Money markets are now not pricing in a hike until August, having factored in a 25 bp hike in May only a few weeks ago, and June as recently as last week.

But economists said that while the bulk of the repricing was due to the Japanese disaster and worries about political turmoil in the Middle East, softer British economic data was already causing investors to become less certain about a hike.

"The bottom line is that markets tend to overreact," said Richard Barwell, economist at RBS. "Central banks have to have a slightly more objective perspective about what's going on."

He added that "at the margin [Japan] may have an effect, but the most likely outcome is that it probably won't have a significant impact" on British interest rates.

Switzerland

In Switzerland, the uncertainty over Japan has removed the outside chance of a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at its decision on Thursday, economists said.

Interest rate futures had been pricing in an SNB hike in September, with some chance of a move in June, but Japan has sent the franc [CHF=X  0.8993    0.0005  (+0.06%)   ] up sharply against both the euro [EUR=X  1.3916    0.0014  (+0.1%)   ] and the dollar. Since Switzerland does not want too strong a franc, bets on a rate hike have pulled back to December 2011.

Before the Japanese disaster, analysts had expected the SNB on Thursday to clearly set the stage for rate hikes later this year. Now, it is likely to sound more cautious.

"The uncertainty has risen of course and the reaction of the Swiss franc is clear. Given this background, the SNB will likely be careful not to issue a hawkish statement," said Credit Suisse economist Fabian Heller.

Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984

U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.

Groundbreaking on new construction dropped 22.5 percent last month to an annual rate of 479,000 units, according to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday. This was just above a record low set in April 2009 and way below the estimates of economists, who had been looking for a smaller drop to 570,000. 

January's figure was revised up to 618,000 units from 596,000. But that did not change the tenor of the report, which confirmed that the sector is failing to recover despite interest rates near record lows.

Building permits, a hint of future construction demand, fell to a record low of 517,000 units from a revised 563,000, and were down by about 20 percent from levels seen in February 2010.

Housing was at the epicenter of the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

One key impediment to the sector's recovery is a vast backlog of unsold inventory, while a shaky job market has also made consumers reluctant to embark on any major new financial commitments. Making matters worse, a glut of foreclosures, stalled in recent months by revelations of improper loan documentation, is depressing the market.