Senin, 26 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis, Nov 26th, 2012

Euro rises broadly on Greece aid optimism, German data

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday, heading for its second straight week of gains, on hopes that Greece's lenders were nearing an agreement to release further aid to help the debt-stricken country. 

A rise in German business morale also boosted the euro, although analysts said any euro strength should be limited given the bleak economic outlook for the euro zone as a whole and expectations that the European Central Bank will have to ease policy further. 

Greece said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be disbursed. But other sources involved in the talks cautioned the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested. 

The euro <EUR=> rose as high as $1.2943 on Reuters data, breaking above resistance at $1.2910, its 55-day moving average. It was last trading at $1.2941, up 0.5 percent on the day. It also hit a seven-month high of 106.73 yen <EURJPY=> and was last at 106.65 yen, up 0.4 percent. 

The euro has gained 2 percent against the dollar in the past two weeks as yields on Greek bonds fell on expectations that euro zone ministers should be able to sign off on another tranche of aid for Greece on Monday. 

German business morale surprised with its first rise in seven months in November. The Munich-based Ifo think tank said its business climate index rose to 101.4 from 100.0 in October, far surpassing even the highest estimate in a Reuters poll. 

Wall Street climbs in short session, led by tech stocks

U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day during a holiday-shortened, thin trading session on Friday, as investors bid up large technology stocks which had fallen to more attractive levels recently. Market participants were also encouraged by signs of progress in talks about releasing aid to debt-saddled Greece, and piled into U.S. retail shares as the holiday shopping season got underway. 

U.S. equity market trading will end early at 1:00 pm ET (1800 GMT) after closing Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volume was limited, with many investors still on leave. Microsoft <MSFT.O> helped lift the Nasdaq, gaining 2.4 percent to $27.61, while Oracle <ORCL.O> rose 1.8 percent to $30.94. 

Research in Motion <RIMM.O> surged on optimism about its soon-to-be-launched BlackBerry 10 devices that will vie against Apple's <AAPL.O> iPhone and Android-based smartphones. RIM was up 13.8 percent at $11.68.  The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 172.79 points, or 1.35 percent, to 13,009.68. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> added 18.12 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,409.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 40.30 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,966.85.

For the week, the Dow gained 3.3 percent, the S&P added 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq rose 4 percent. The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 and the Dow above 13,000 for the first time since Nov. 6.

Gold up 1 pct as dlr drop sparks rally; $1,750 eyed

Gold rose to its highest level in more than a month on Friday, gaining 1 percent as a combination of dollar decline, options-related buying and technical support sent the metal near $1,750 an ounce. 

After trading slightly higher in early U.S. dealings, gold suddenly surged and broke above its 50 day moving average, a key technical resistance the metal had failed to breach in more than a month. 

Bullion also benefited as the dollar fell broadly, particularly versus the euro, on hopes for a Greek aid package and a surprise improvement in German business sentiment. [FRX/] Markets could be choppier than usual in thin trading on Friday, with the metal markets closing early and the U.S. stock market open for only a half-day of business after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. 

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 1 percent at $1,747 an ounce by 11:07 a.m. EST (1607 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery <GCZ2> were up $18.90 an ounce at $1,747.10 in heavy trade. The first-notice day for December is next Friday. 

Oil Rises on German Business Confidence

 

Oil rose after German business confidence unexpectedly increased from the lowest level in two and a half years in November, signaling Europe’s largest economy may gain strength. Futures jumped as much as 1.3 percent and the euro and equities rallied as the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed to 101.4 from 100 in October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a drop to 99.5. Israeli troops fired on Palestinians near the Gaza Strip, spurring accusations from both Israel and Hamas that a truce was breached. 

Crude oil for January delivery rose 82 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $88.20 a barrel at 12:03 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, which are up 1.8 percent this week, have dropped 11 percent this year. 

The exchange will close at 1:30 p.m. New York time today, an hour earlier than usual. There was no floor trading yesterday because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and all electronic transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes. 

Brent for January settlement increased 43 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $110.98 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is heading for a 1.9 percent gain this week. 

Nikkei set to rise, may test a 7-month high on gains by exporters

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to rise on Monday and may test a seven-month high, supported by a positive U.S. lead and expectations that a weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters. 

Sentiment was buoyed by indications that lenders are closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche for Greece, which pushed the euro to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday. The euro hit a seven-month high of 106.97 yen <EURJPY=>, and was last at 106.92 yen, up 0.6 percent. 

Exporters with high exposure to the euro zone, such as carmakers like Mazda Motor Corp <7267.T> and precision equipment makers like Canon Inc <7751.T> and Nikon Corp <7731.T>, may lead gains, analysts said. 

The Nikkei <.N225> rose 1.6 percent to 9,366.80 on Thursday, its highest closing level since May 2, taking the index near "overbought" territory, with its 14-day relative strength index at 69.5. Seventy or above is deemed overbought. The Japanese market was closed for a national holiday on Friday. 

Seoul shares seen gaining, US holiday sales off to good start

Seoul shares are likely to gain on Monday, helped by a promising start to the U.S. holiday shopping season, while concerns about U.S. fiscal woes and Europe's debt crisis have receded somewhat. 

U.S. shoppers went to stores earlier and bought online more than before this Thanksgiving weekend, giving retailers a strong start to the holiday shopping season, data showed on Sunday. Global stocks and the euro gained on Friday on signs of progress in talks on releasing aid to Greece and after an influential German survey found business sentiment had improved in Europe's largest economy. U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day in a low-volume trading session. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> closed up 0.6 percent at 1,911.33 points on Friday. 

Hong Kong shares poised for 4th-straight daily gain

Hong Kong shares are set to start the week with a fourth-straight daily gain on Monday, buoyed by expectations that an agreement at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later in the day will help Greece avoid a near-term bankruptcy.  
  
The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> rose 0.8 percent to 21,914 points last Friday to its highest close since Nov. 7. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong was 1.1 percent higher.

Both rose 3.6 percent over the week, with the Hang Seng Index postings its best weekly showing in 2-1/2 months. The index is only a little more than 1 percent below its 2012 intra-day high, recorded on Nov. 2. 

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 1.2 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.2 percent at 00.51 GMT.

Technical Analysis, November 26th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2900-0.3080
Up
1.3080
1.2900
1.2960

1.3080
1.2900
1.3020
1.2840
USD/JPY
81.60-83.10
Up
83.10
81.60
82.10

83.10
81.60
82.60
81.10
GBP/USD
1.5960-1.6020
Up
1.6140
1.5960
1.6020

1.6140
1.5960
1.6080
1.5900
USD/CHF
0.9180-0.9360
Down
0.9420
0.9240

0.9300
0.9180
0.9360
0.9360
0.9180
AUD/USD
1.0370-1.0550
Up
1.0550
1.0370
1.0430

1.0550
1.0370
1.0490
1.0310
NIKKEI
9340-9520
Up
9520
9340
9400

9520
9340
9460
9280
HANGSENG
21840-22020
Up
22020
21840
21900

22020
21840
21960
21780
KOSPI
249.40-251.20
Up
251.20
249.40
250.00

251.20
249.40
250.60
248.80
GOLD
1737.00-1761.00
Up
1761.00
1737.00
1745.00

1761.00
1737.00
1753.00
1729.00

Technical Rebound Emas Datang, Tinggal Menunggu Break High

Emas telah tembus diatas range horizontal jangka pendeknya yang mengindikasikan potensi penguatan lebih lanjut. Bagiamnapaun resisten 1754 (high 17 Oktober ’12) sejauh ini masih belum mampu ditembus. Support intraday tampak di area 1736 & 1729.

Level support krusial jangka panjang di area 1647 diperkirakan masih akan bertahan di jangka menengah. Secara keseluruhan arah Emas masih condong keatas semenjak rebound dari support 1523, selanjutnya tinggal menunggu teknikal rebound berlanjut diatas resisten 1770 untuk menguji Resisten jangka panjang di area 1791 dan 1803.

Technical Rebound Emas Datang, Tinggal Menunggu Break High

Greenback Kokoh Di Tengah Berlangsungnya Pertemuan Eurogroup

Greenback Kokoh Di Tengah Berlangsungnya Pertemuan Eurogroup Dollar AS diperdagangkan lebih kuat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada hari Senin seiring para menteri keuangan zona eropa melangsungkan pertemuan di Brussels, guna membahas pencairan dana bantuan tahap berikutnya untuk Yunani.
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"Kegagalan dalam pembahasan anggaran Uni Eropa pekan lalu, pemilu akhir pekan di Spanyol dan pembahasan tentang bantuan keuangan untuk Yunani yang tengah berlangsung masih menjaga ketidakpastian di pasar," kata analis Credit Agricole.

Sedangkan terhadap Yen Jepang, Dollar AS harus memperlihatkan sedikit pelemahan pada awal pekan ini. Namun secara keseluruhan Greenback relatif masih lebih kuat, setelah mencatat penguatan 1,3% sepanjang pekan lalu dan 3,3% sejak awal bulan November.

Rilis minutes pertemuan Bank of Japan tadi pagi memperlihatkan jika 2 anggota dewan kebijakan menyerukan pelonggaran moneter yang lebih agresif dan mendesak bank sentral untuk mempertahankan komitmen pelonggaran hingga target inflasi 1% tercapai.

Carney, Gubernur Baru BoE

Carney, Gubernur Baru BoEGubernur Bank of Canada Mark Carney akan menggantikan Mervyn King sebagai pimpinan Bank of England mulai tahun depan, menurut pemerintah Inggris. "Jabatan King sebagai Gubernur BoE akan berakhir Juni 2013 dan Carney akan menjadi Gubernur BoE berikutnya," ujar Menteri Keuangan Inggris George Osborne.

Carney merupakan salah satu petinggi bank sentral terkemuka di dunia. Selain menjabat sebagai Gubernur BoC, Carney juga memegang posisi sebagai pimpinan Dewan Stabilitas Keuangan (FSB) yang ditugaskan untuk menjalankan peraturan yang telah disusun oleh G-20. "Carney merupakan salah satu petinggi bank sentral yang cemerlang," tutur Osborne yang juga utarakan bahwa Carney akan menjabat sebagai gubernur BoE selama lima tahun.

Sementara itu, sterling kurangi pelemahan sedangkan Dollar Kanada melemah setelah berita ini dirilis. GBP/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.6026, coba menjauhi level rendah harian 1.5996. USD/CAD kini diperdagangkan 0.9950, menjauhi level rendah harian 0.9916

Wall Street Pekan Ini: Performa Ekonomi Harus Terjaga

Wall Street Pekan Ini: Performa Ekonomi Harus TerjagaDi tengah tumbuhnya optimisme akan kemunculan solusi jurang fiskal, investor bursa New York pekan ini wajib mencermati rilis data ekonomi terbaru Amerika Serikat. Laporan sektor perumahan, manufaktur dan gairah konsumen dapat dijadikan parameter kinerja ekonomi di penghujung tahun.

Keyakinan pelaku pasar tehadap penuntasan isu fiscal cliff mampu melambungkan harga saham. Padahal pasca pemilihan presiden lalu, bursa Amerika diterjang pesimisme dahsyat karena ketidakyakinan terhadap kemampuan Barack Obama memenangkan hati kongres. Pekan lalu Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 dan Nasdaq mencatat kenaikan di atas 3% setelah menguat selama lima hari berturut-turut. Untuk kali pertama sesudah pemilu digelar, Dow Jones mampu menembus psikologis 13.000.

Terdapat dua indikator makro yang layak mendapat perhatian dalam lima hari ke depan. Yang pertama adalah Beige Book atau dokumen yang berisi proyeksi ekonomi bank sentral terhadap kondisi di 12 distrik (Rabu 28/11). Pada Beige Book bulan lalu, Beige Book memperlihatkan ekspansi pada aktivitas ekonomi meski terbilang moderat. Data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) yang muncul di hari Kamis (29/11) akan memperlihatkan sejauh mana daya saing ekonomi Amerika membaik di akhir tahun. Estimasi pertama yang dikeluarkan bulan Oktober lalu, menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi tumbuh pada rata-rata 2%. Kenaikan tersebut sedikit banyak dipengaruhi oleh penambahan belanja pertahanan, membaiknya pasar perumahan dan daya beli konsumen yang mulai pulih.

Khusus untuk poin yang terakhir tadi, gairah beli warga akan dikonfirmasi oleh rilis data belanja konsumen yang juga keluar pekan ini. Data ini hampir pasti positif karena peritel kini sedang diserbu oleh pelanggan yang bersiap menyambut musim liburan. Namun demikian, masih harus dipastikan apakah gairah beli tahun ini bisa lebih baik ketimbang akhir tahun 2011 lalu. Consumer spending berkontribusi sebesar 70% terhadap perekonomian nasional melalui tiga komponen yang termasuk di dalamnya, yaitu consumer confidence, personal income dan spending numbers. Bulan lalu, consumer confidence mampu memecahkan rekor tertinggi dalam empat tahun terakhir akibat apiknya daya serap tenaga kerja.

Sektor perumahan juga mempunyai tiga laporan penting yang layak diamati pekan ini yaitu indeks 20-kota versi Case-Shiller, mortgage rates dan pending home sales. Sementara dua data manafaktur yang siap meramaikan bursa saham adalah laporan durable orders dan Indeks purchasing manager Chicago.

Emas Rebound Seiring Negosiasi Jurang Fiskal AS

Emas Rebound Seiring Negosiasi Jurang Fiskal ASEmas kembali rebound diatas harga pembukaan hari ini di level $1,751.00 seiring spekulan menggeser fokus ke DPR AS yang melanjutkan negosiasi hari ini untuk menghindari jurang fiskal AS. Selain itu para investor juga masih menunggu hasil rapat penyediaan pinjaman darurat pada Yunani. Berbagai ketidakpastian tersebut secara keseluruhan mendongkrak Dollar AS, sehingga para investor cenderung berlindung pada aset safe haven seperti obligasi dan Dollar AS.

Secara teknikal diperkirakan harga Emas masih tertahan di kisaran 1746 s.d 1755 dalam satu hingga dua hari kedepan sebelum akhirnya terkerek naik diatas range saat ini. Importir Emas di India, mulai mengurangi pembelian cadangan Emas untuk musim kawin India seiring melambungnya harga mendekati level tertinggi nya terhadap rupee.

Kebanyakan analis mengekspektasikan kenaikan permintaan jelang musim berlibur di akhir tahun, dengan konsumen utama masih datang dari India dan China yang diperkirakan menyumbang sekitar setengah dari permintaan Emas global.

Buffet Desak Kongres Naikan Pajak Orang Kaya

Buffet Desak Kongres Naikan Pajak Orang Kaya Miliarder Warren Buffet menyerukan sekali lagi untuk pajak yang lebih tinggi pada warga Amerika yang sangat kaya dan dia mendesak Kongres untuk berkompromi atas pemotongan anggaran dan kenaikan pajak. Buffet mengungkapkan pandangannya tentang kebijakan fiskal dalam sebuah artikel opini di The New York Times pada hari Senin.

Dalam artikel itu, Buffet mengejek gagasan yang menyatakan bahwa para investor akan menarik kembali modalnya jika pajak dinaikkan. Buffet mengatakan dia tidak pernah melihat itu terjadi.  Kepala konglomerat Berkshire Hathaway Inc. menegaskan kembail seruannya  untuk yang berpenghasilan antara $ 1 juta sampai $10 juta akan terkena pajak minimal 30 persen, dan yang di atas $ 10 juta terkena kenaikan pajak sebesar 35 persen.