Perhatian : Data penting Akhir bulan

Data Non-Farm Payrolls A.S atau tenaga kerja di luar sektor pertanian akan menjadi perhatian utama pasar pada akhir pekan ini.

Prediksi menurut survei Reuters adalah +188 ribu pekerja dibanding bulan lalu di angka +192 ribu pekerja. Dan tingkat pengangguran AS diprediksi tetap 8,9%.

 

Dari pengalaman sebelumnya pergerakan pasar akan fluktuaktif tanpa tren yang jelas sesaat setelah diumumkannya data-data ini. Namun data yang muncul diatas ekspektasi mencerminkan membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi AS dan dapat memicu sentimen risk appetite terutama minat terhadap bursa saham. (Dar)

 

Data Ekonomi Utama Hingga Akhir Pekan

 

• Kamis 31 Maret, 2011

-       Inggris              : GfK Consumer Confidence

-       Eropa                : German Unemployment Change, CPI Flash Estimate y/y

-       Inggris              : BOE Credit Conditions Survey

-       AS                     : Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders m/m

-        

• Jumat 01 April, 2011

-       Jepang              : Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

-       China                : Manufacturing PMI, HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

-       Inggris              : Halifax HPI m/m, Manufacturing PMI

-       Swiss                : Retail Sales y/y, SVME PMI

-       Eropa                : Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate

-       AS                     : Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate,

                                    ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m

Sterling Today : Koreksi bearish

Sterling sedikit terkoreksi dan tengah berada di kisaran resistance 1.6092. Sinyal bearish sudah muncul dari stochastic dan CCI 1 jam sehingga jika harga tetap bertahan di bawah 1.6092, maka peluang untuk koreksi ke area 1.6062 atau bahkan 1.6013 cukup besar. Sebaliknya, pergerakan ke atas 1.6112 justru akan memperbesar potensi bullish ke 1.6140.

Uero Today : Resistance di 1.4155

EURUSD sedang menguji resistance di 1.4155 dan juga area atas dari channel bearish minor. Bisa dikatakan bahwa level ini adalah resistance kunci di mana pecahnya area tersebut akan mengkonfirmasi pola bullish flag di mana ekspektasi pergerakan selanjutnya adalah menguji resistance berikutnya di 1.4248. Akan tetapi, perlu diperhatikan bahwa stochastic dan CCI 4 jam sudah overbought, sehingga masih terbuka peluang koreksi ke area support di 1.4051 jika resistance tersebut bertahan.

Hangseng Today : koreksi bearish

Seperti terlihat pada grafik Hang Seng (HSI) berikut, secara teknikal indeks berada pada fase koreksi bearish setelah gagal menembus ke atas reisisten area 23500. Bila indeks tidak mampu menembus keatas 23500, koreksi akan kembali terjadi menuju 23400 sebagai support terdekat sebelum melanjutkan menguji area 23200 bahkan hingga 23000. Sementara break ke atas 23500 akan melanjutkan outlook bullish menuju 23680 untuk jangka pendek.

 

Resistance Level : 23500, 23680, 23880

Support Level      : 23400, 23200, 23000

Trading Range     : 23200 – 23880

Waspadai Pasar, Nikkei Turun Tipis

Nikkei turun tipis di sesi pagi, di 9710. Fokus pasar saar ini pada apakah Fed AS akan mengakhiri program pelonggaran moneter yang kedua. Indeks diprediksi akan berada di kisaran 9600-9800 hari ini, menurut Kazuhiro Takahashi, manajer investasi Daiwa Securities Capital Markets. Nissan Motor naik 1.0% di Y738 setelah surat kabar Nikkei melaporkan bahwa produsen mobil sedang mempertimbangkan untuk bererja sama dengan produsen mobil asal Perancis, Renault SA namun sampai saat ini Nissan masih membantah rencana tersebut. Kuraray melonjak 4.4% menjadi Y1,066 akibat laporan dari surat kabar Nikkei bahwa Kuraray diperkirakan akan membukukan laporan pendapatan yang meningkat. Bridgestone turun 1.4% menjadi Y1,747. Tepco melambung 8.6% menjadi Y506.

China Nudges World Closer To New Gold Standard

On the night our documentary, I.O.U.S.A., made its nationwide premiere in August 2008, the film was followed up by a live panel discussion, broadcast via satellite. Our friend David Walker, the former U.S. comptroller general and “star” of the film, took part along with several other luminaries.

At one point, the question was asked: Might America’s trading partners one day sell off their U.S. Treasury holdings? Impossible, said Warren Buffett. In fact, he insisted, they couldn’t, because they’d need to convert it into some other currency, which would be little better than the dollar. No one else chimed in to challenge the assertion.

“Buffett’s answer assumes that there is no alternative,” author, friend and local Baltimore resident Bill Baker writes in his 2009 book, Endless Money: The Moral Hazards of Socialism, “because for generations, all the world’s currencies have been backed only by the promise that governments would accept them in payment of taxes. But that ignores a currency that has been used effectively by man for thousands of years: gold. China and other countries might exchange their U.S. dollars for it now.”

Indeed, China is quietly building its gold reserves. They totaled 600 metric tons in 2004. Then in April 2009 came an announcement they’d grown to 1,054 metric tons. And the buzz from Beijing is that the central bankers want to grow that stash another tenfold.

Meanwhile, China has trimmed its US Treasury holdings for three months in a row. The January total was $1.15 trillion – down 1.75% from October.  These are the first steps toward what Baker sees as the “remonetization” of gold, coming soon to a country near you.

History is a pendulum.  “Once gold and silver had been written into the Constitution,” Baker says, “no one might have thought that it would be replaced by paper within 60 years.” But the pendulum swung, the Union issuing its infamous greenbacks during the Civil War.

Then the pendulum swung back, the greenbacks’ critics were “able to successfully push for an agenda of gold resumption. But before the London Economic Conference of 1933, the world would be shocked by Roosevelt’s rejection of the gold standard.” The pendulum swung again.
Now, “a series of crises such as was the case in Rome might ultimately bring the pendulum back toward gold,” Baker writes.

In other words, we’re approaching the end of the great dollar standard we wrote about in The Demise of the Dollar. The only world anyone younger than 40 has ever known, in which all the world’s currencies float freely against each other, is nearly over.

Hang Seng Masih Kuat

HSI menguat setelah sebelumnya investor melakukan profit-taking, namun nampaknya indeks akan menyamai performa di hari Rabu dan trend indeks menguat sepanjang sesi ini. Pergerakan indeks di kisaran 23,300-23,700.

Saham ICBC kemungkinan menguat pasca melaporkan hasil pendapatannya namun Bank of Communications kemungkinan anjlok akibat pemangkasan dividen. Foxconn International melemah setelah membukukan kerugian senilai $218.3 juta. Hang Seng naik 1.7% menjadi 23,451.43 hari Rabu dengan volume pasar yang meningkat menjadi HK$89.08 milyar, level tertinggi dalam lebih dari dua pekan.

Pulihnya Selera Resiko Topang Emas

Emas beranjak naik dalam sesi perdagangan yang bergejolak di hari Rabu, mengakhiri penurunan selama 4 sesi berturut-turut, seiring pulihnya kembali selera resiko investor memicu aksi beli emas dan aset lainnya.

Emas terdukung oleh pelemahan dollar terhadap euro setelah pejabat ECB mengatakan kenaikan tingkat suku bunga Eropa akan dilakukan secara bertahap, dan bursa saham global yang menguat lebih dari 1% setelah data tenaga kerja AS melambungkan bursa AS dan Eropa. "Nampaknya selera resiko telah pulih dan mengalir kembali menuju emas dan bursa saham, serta memicu kenaikan," ucap Zachary Oxman, direktur manajer TrendMax Futures. Aksi beli pada awal bulan April dan permulaan kuartal kedua juga turut mendukung emas, ucap Oxman. Emas bersama minyak sempat turun tajam setelah dirilisnya data yang menunjukkan tingginya suplai minyak mentah. Bagaimanapun, keduanya jauh pulih dari level rendah sesi.

Asian Stocks Rise, Erasing Losses Since Japan Quake, on Economy, Earnings

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index erasing losses since the March 11 earthquake in Japan, as a jobs report boosted optimism in the U.S. economy and Chinese companies posted earnings that beat analyst estimates.

HTC Corp. (2498), the Taiwanese maker of mobile phones that gets about half of its sales from America, and Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s No. 1 carmaker, rose at least 0.9 percent after a report showed U.S. companies added more workers in March. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by market value, and rival Bank of Communications Ltd. gained at least 1.1 percent in Hong Kong after posting 2010 earnings that surpassed analyst estimates.
“There’s been solid earnings from Chinese companies and U.S. data has also been encouraging,” said Ng Soo Nam, the Singapore-based chief investment officer at Nikko Asset Management Co., which oversees about $126 billion. “The worst of the nuclear crisis in Japan could be behind us.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 135.19 as of 12:23 p.m. Tokyo, heading for its highest close since March 10, the day before Japan’s strongest earthquake on record struck the nation. About the same number of stocks advanced as declined in the measure, which is set for a 1.7 percent decline this month.
Gains today helped trim the index’s loss this quarter to 1.8 percent. The gauge, which was trading around 135.10 on March 11 before the earthquake and the ensuing tsunami struck, tumbled to as low as 121.69 on March 15.

Economic Impact

The Asia-Pacific gauge last week had its biggest weekly gain since November as Japan moved to stabilize nuclear reactors damaged by the earthquake and as companies from Cnooc Ltd. to Bank of China Ltd. reported earnings that surpassed estimates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average was little changed, paring earlier gains of as much as 0.6 percent after a report showed the nation’s manufacturing deteriorated at the fastest pace in at least nine years in March, underscoring forecasts the economy will shrink in the aftermath of the earthquake.

“It’ll take more time for the impact of the earthquake on the economy to be clear,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $450 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index all gained 0.1 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent.

U.S. Employment

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent today. The index rose 0.7 percent yesterday, extending its biggest first-quarter rally in 13 years, as a report from ADP Employer Services showed U.S. companies hired 201,000 workers in March, marking the third time in four months that the nation added more than 200,000 jobs.

A Labor Department report tomorrow may show total U.S. non- farm payrolls rose 190,000 in March and the unemployment rate held at 8.9 percent, economists predict. The jobless rate fell below 9 percent in February for the first time in 22 months.

HTC, which counts America as its biggest market, climbed 3.2 percent to NT$1,130 in Taipei. Toyota Motor Corp., which gets about 30 percent of sales from North America, gained 0.9 percent to 3,360 yen in Tokyo. Techtronic Industries Co., the maker of Hoover vacuum cleaners and Ryobi power tools, advanced 1.2 percent to HK$10.54 in Hong Kong.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.1 percent this year through yesterday, compared with gains of 5.6 percent by the S&P 500 and 1 percent by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 13.6 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.7 times for the S&P 500 and 11.2 times for the Stoxx 600.

A gauge of finance companies posted the biggest advance among the 10 industry groups in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. All but three of the sub-indexes gained.

Chinese Banks Climb

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the nation’s biggest lender, rose 1.1 percent to HK$6.45 in Hong Kong. The company said full-year net income increased 28 percent to 165.2 billion yuan ($25.2 billion) from a year earlier. That exceeded the 163.8 billion yuan average estimate of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest lender, climbed 2.2 percent to HK$8.50 after saying full-year net income rose 30 percent to 39 billion yuan from a year earlier. That beat the 38 billion yuan average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Energy companies fell after crude oil for May delivery declined 0.5 percent to settle at $104.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Inpex Corp., Japan’s biggest energy explorer, lost 1 percent to 626,000 yen. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL), Australia’s No. 2 oil and gas producer, sank 1.9 percent to A$46.86.

Sarkozy Backs IMF as Currency Enforcer at G-20 China Opening

The International Monetary Fund should get the power to police rules envisioned to promote currency-market stability, French President Nicolas Sarkozy told Group of 20 finance chiefs in Nanjing, China.
“Greater supervision by the IMF” of nations’ balance of payments and reserves “appears indispensible,” Sarkozy said today in remarks prepared for a one-day seminar that he initiated. “France supports modifying the IMF’s status to expand its oversight capacity.”

With France holding the presidency of the G-20 this year, Sarkozy has made the monetary system one of his priorities. In his opening remarks, he omitted mention of the two biggest economies -- the U.S. and China -- whose policy makers have been criticized for keeping their currencies weak to promote growth.
Sarkozy sought to summon the G-20’s unity at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. Now, nations pursuing their own interests risked a “proliferation of unilateral measures during crises resulting in a new financial protectionism in which all economies suffer,” he said.

The conference, attended by economists including Nobel laureate Robert Mundell and Jim O’Neill, chairman of Global Sachs Asset Management, is intended to lay the groundwork for an agreement at the G-20 summit in Cannes, France, in November that would lead to a more “stable and resilient” monetary order, said the French leader, who is up for re-election next year.

G-20 Disputes

The last gathering of G-20 finance ministers in February underscored the difficulties, with China fighting against the inclusion of foreign-exchange reserves as a yardstick for gauging global imbalances. Sarkozy views China’s decision to host the conference as a first step toward a more flexible yuan that should result in its inclusion in the IMF’s currency basket, known as Special Drawing Rights, according to a French official who spoke to reporters before the gathering.

Chinese President Hu Jintao told Sarkozy yesterday in Beijing that China views the internationalization of the yuan as inevitable, with only the pace of the move in question, the French official said.
In promoting the IMF’s role, Sarkozy would boost the power and prestige of a potential presidential challenger in 2012, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss Kahn. Strauss-Kahn, a former Socialist finance minister who has yet to announce his intentions, would be the top vote-getter, French polls show.
--James Hertling. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Stephanie Phang.

Gold Heads for Longest Quarterly Winning Streak Since 1979 on Haven Demand

Gold headed for a 10th straight quarterly rise, the longest in three decades, as turmoil in the Middle East, fighting in Libya and Japan’s nuclear crisis increased demand for an investment haven.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,424.88 an ounce at 1:10 p.m. in Melbourne, taking the quarterly gain to 0.3 percent. The June-delivery contract in New York was also little changed at $1,425.40, heading for a 0.3 percent quarterly rise.

“There is a lot of uncertainty around the globe in terms of political events,” David Lennox, a Sydney-based resource analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone today. Fighting could escalate in Libya, while there is uncertainty surrounding Bahrain and the nuclear crisis in Japan, he said.


Gold reached a record $1,447.82 an ounce on March 24 amid tension in northern Africa and the Middle East and after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed thousands and caused radiation to leak from a nuclear plant. Libyan rebels were forced to retreat this week by troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after earlier advances were helped by U.S.-led air strikes.
“We are now starting to see that the air strikes may not be completely effective against Qaddafi, and that’s going to raise the next bar,” Lennox said.

Gold advanced for nine consecutive quarters through Dec. 31, 2010, partly because investors bought the metal as a hedge against dollar and euro weakness. Gains were limited this quarter on signs the U.S. economy is improving, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets like stocks.

Payroll Gains

Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers in March, a sign the labor market may be strengthening, according to figures from ADP Employer Services yesterday. Employment increased by a revised 208,000 in February, the report, based on payrolls, showed.

Economists project a Labor Department report tomorrow will show the jobless rate held at 8.9 percent. It has fallen by 0.9 percentage point over the last three months, the biggest decline since 1983.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.7 percent yesterday and is up 5.6 percent this quarter.
“Buoyant equities and a positive U.S. ADP employment report removed some of the safe-haven premium” in the gold market, Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today.

Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.3 percent to $37.5687 an ounce, heading for a 21 percent rise this quarter, the ninth straight quarterly gain. The metal has more than doubled in the past year and reached a 31-year high of $38.165 on March 24.
Immediate-delivery platinum was little changed at $1,773.25 an ounce and palladium gained 0.5 percent to $757 an ounce.