Rabu, 20 Juni 2012

Dampak Eropa Terhadap AS Masih Minim: Paulson

Mantan Menteri Keuangan AS, Henry Paulson mengatakan bahwa AS masih aman dari dampak krisis hutang dari Eropa saat upaya untuk membantu Yunani, Spanyol dan negara-negara lainnya untuk menstabilkan perekonomian mereka masih akan berjalan dalam jangka waktu yang lama.
“Walau Eropa masih dalam masalah, AS akan terus berjuang dalam memulihkan ekonominya yang mungkin masih belum akan berpengaruh banyak terhadap sektor tenaga kerja”, dikatakan Paulson yang menjabat sebagai menteri keuangan dari bulan Juli 2006 hingga Januari 2009, pada sebuah konferensi industri bioteknologi di Boston hari ini. Eropa akan mampu menstabilkan keadaan dan menghindari kebangkrutan”, dikatakannya.
Presiden Obama dan kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel yang merupakan dua pimpinan negara besar dunia yang bertemu di Meksiko pekan ini akan berusaha memastikan bahwa ancaman terhadap krisis hutang Eropa tidak akan menyebabkan resesi global. Mereka bertemu saat tingkat yield obligasi Spanyol melonjak hingga mencapai rekor baru Eropa dan pemilu di Yunani yang gagal menyingkirkan penyebaran krisis hutang.

Emas Menguat Terkait Prospek Stimulus Fed

Emas Menguat Terkait Prospek Stimulus FedEmas bergerak naik hari Rabu ini terkait aksi beli spekulatif yang terbawa harapan untuk stimulus dari Fed AS yang mungkin akan memperpanjang program pembelian obligasi jangka panjang guna menstimulasi ekonomi, sebuah langkah untuk mendorong status emas sebagai safe-haven.

FOMC akan merilis sebuah pernyataan kebijakan di akhir pertemuan hari Rabu ini. Program Operation Twist, yang melibatkan pembelian obligasi jangka panjang dan mendanai pembelian tersebut dengan menjual obligasi jangka pendek, dijadwalkan akan berakhir bulan ini.

Spot emas bergerak naik $2.99 menjadi $1,619.59. Emas mengalami lonjakan harga tertinggi di 2012 di sekitar harga $1,790 di bulan Februari setelah saat itu Fed mengatakan akan menahan tingkat suku bunga mendekati 0 (nol) hingga 2014 paling cepat.
Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman bulan Agustua turun $2.20 menjadi $1,621.00.

Fundamental Analysis, June 19th, 2012

Euro falls as Spain worry overshadows Greek vote

The euro fell from a one-month high against the dollar on Monday as surging Spanish borrowing costs fueled fears of an escalating euro zone debt crisis and overshadowed a weekend victory for pro-bailout parties in Greek elections.

Spanish bond yields rose above 7 percent, the highest since the euro was launched in 1999, threatening Madrid's ability to finance itself. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent.

Although Sunday's vote eased immediate concerns about Greece being forced out of the euro zone, the narrow victory raised doubts over how the winning New Democracy party would implement deep spending cuts and tax increases that come with the bailout.

The euro <EUR=> was down 0.5 percent at $1.2576, off a one-month high of $1.2747 hit in Asia as it came under pressure on reported selling by Asian sovereign investors. It was the euro's worst showing in nearly three weeks. Investors are shifting focus to a policy announcement by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Some analysts said the euro could gain versus the dollar on speculation the U.S. central bank may opt for more easing to boost growth. 

Many market players expect the Fed to extend its long-term bond-buying through Operation Twist by a few months from the current deadline of June after a series of disappointing data. Citigroup, for one, expects a modest extension of Operation Twist by $200 billion, although it may not have as much risk-positive impact as the two rounds of quantitative easing.
The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 79.09 yen <JPY=>. The euro was little changed at 99.48 yen <EURJPY=>.

Tech outpaces a market bedeviled by Europe

The Nasdaq advanced on Monday, propelled by a rally in Apple and other big-cap tech stocks, but fears Europe's debt crisis is in danger of worsening limited broader gains.
Positive analyst comments lifted both eBay <EBAY.O>, up 4.5 percent to $42.49, and Groupon Inc <GRPN.O>, up 10.8 percent at $11.15. Apple Inc <AAPL.O> accounted for about half the Nasdaq's rise, climbing 2 percent to $585.78.

The S&P eked out a slight gain as it bumped up against its 50-day moving average around 1,347 while the Dow ended lower. A weekend election victory by pro-bailout parties in Greece removed one headwind facing the euro zone. But rising bond yields in Spain and Italy reinforced views that Europe has yet to control its debt crisis.

A senior official with Greece's New Democracy party, the conservatives who won Sunday's election and who back Athens' international bailout plan, told Reuters that Greece would form a government on Tuesday.
The election results also offered little reprieve from contagion concerns as yields on both Italian and Spanish bonds rose, with Spain's 10-year yield <ES10YT=TWEB> climbing above the 7 percent mark at which other highly indebted euro-zone nations were forced to seek bailouts. European authorities have already agreed to a 100-billion-euro ($125 billion) rescue for Spain's troubled banks.

Market participants were also reluctant to take bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, with investors keen to see if the Fed will announce new stimulative measures in its policy statement at the meeting's close on Wednesday afternoon.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 25.28 points, or 0.20 percent, at 12,741.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 1.94 points, or 0.14 percent, at 1,344.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 22.53 points, or 0.78 percent, at 2,895.33.

An index of energy shares <.GSPE> fell 0.8 percent on Monday, with the sector ranking as the S&P 500's worst performer. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> dropped 1 percent after falling for six of the last seven weeks.

Gold edges up on uncertainty over Europe, FOMC

Gold eked out a small gain on Monday as lingering uncertainty over the euro zone debt crisis following Greece's elections and a policy meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted bullion from its early losses.
Safe-haven bids boosted gold as G20 leaders pressed Europe to do whatever it takes to combat Europe's crisis after a victory for pro-bailout parties in a Greek vote reduced the chances of a euro breakup but failed to calm financial markets.  

Monday's trading volume of U.S. gold stood at just over half of its 30-day average, and gold option volatility also tumbled as investors opted to stay on the sidelines ahead of a key Fed
meeting later this week.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 30 cents at $1,628.09 an ounce by 2:11 p.m. EDT (1811 GMT), recovering from an early low of $1,606.49. Prior to Monday, bullion had ended higher in each of the last six sessions.
U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled down $1.10 at $1,627. Trading volume was about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed, consistent with last week's weak trend.

Crude Falls for First Time in Three Days on European Debt

Oil dropped for the first time in three days as the worsening European debt crisis threatened to slow global economic growth and reduce demand for crude.

Prices declined 0.9 percent as Spanish borrowing costs rose to a euro-era high. More loans went unpaid in April, Bank of Spain data showed, suggesting the country’s recession is forcing more companies and consumers into default. Weekend elections in Greece eased concern that the country will exit the euro.

“There is a bearish economic contagion in Europe and it’s essentially bringing prices down,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Although the Greek news was positive, people are more concerned now about Spain.” Oil for July delivery fell 76 cents to settle at $83.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 19 percent in the second quarter and 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for August settlement dropped $1.56, or 1.6 percent, to $96.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The 10-year Spanish bond yield jumped above 7 percent for the first time since the creation of the euro. Bad loans as a proportion of total Spanish lending rose to 8.72 percent in April, the highest level since 1994.

Nikkei set to slip as concerns on Spain persist

Japan's Nikkei average is on Tuesday expected to give up some of its hefty gains from the previous session as initial enthusiasm over a victory for pro-bailout parties in Greece gives way to persistent concerns over Spain and its banks. The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,600 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,680 on Monday, down 0.6 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,730.

Spanish bond yields hit a new euro-era high above 7 percent on Monday, with bad loans at banks in Spain climbing to 8.72 percent of their outstanding portfolios in April, the highest level since April 1994, Bank of Spain data showed on Monday. That is up from 8.37 percent a month earlier.
The surge in borrowing costs threatened Spain's ability to fund itself and raises speculation the country may need a full-blown bailout. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields climbed above 7 percent.

The Nikkei on Monday climbed 1.8 percent to 8,721.02, its highest closing level since May 22 and breaking above its 25-day moving average at 8,601.54.

But the benchmark is still down 13.5 percent so far this quarter after rallying 19.3 percent in January-March to log its best first quarter performance in 24 years. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 1.7 percent to 738.81 on Monday, also marking a one-month closing high.

Seoul shares seen rangebound as relief rally fizzles out

Seoul shares are likely to be trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday, as hopes for decisive action from Europe's governments to handle the region's debt crisis limit appetite for offloading shares after a rally the day before.
With relief from a narrow pro-bailout victory in Sunday's Greek election rapidly fading and the World Bank lowering its global growth forecast, World leaders gathered in Mexico for a Group of 20 summit pressured Europe on Monday to take ambitious new steps to resolve its debt crisis. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 1.8 percent to close at 1,891.71 points on Monday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, Spain bailout fears weigh

Hong Kong shares are expected to start lower on Tuesday, with risk appetite crimped after Spain's borrowing costs jumped, raising speculation it might need a full-blown bailout. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> on Monday closed up 1 percent at 19,427.8, off its high for the day just shy of its 200-day moving average, currently at about 19,593.1. 

The 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its rise from October lows to February highs is at about 19,644.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.4 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was 0.2 percent lower at 0029 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 20th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2600-1.2780
Up
1.2780
1.2600
1.2660

1.2780
1.2600
1.2720
1.2540
USD/JPY
78.00-79.50
Down
80.00
78.50

79.00
78.00
79.50
79.50
78.00
GBP/USD
1.5640-1.5820
Up
1.5820
1.5640


1.5820

1.5760
1.5820
USD/CHF
0.9360-0.9540
Down
0.9600
0.9420

0.9480
0.9360
0.9540
0.9540
0.9360
AUD/USD
1.0100-1.0280
Up
1.0280
1.0100
1.0160

1.0280
1.0100
1.0220
1.0040
NIKKEI
8630-8810
Up
8810
8630
8690

8810
8630
8750
8570
HANGSENG
19240-19420
Up
19420
19240
19300

19420
19240
19360
19180
KOSPI
252.30-254.10
Up
254.10
252.30
252.90

254.10
252.30
253.50
251.70
GOLD
1604.50-1628.50
Down
1636.50
1612.50

1620.50
1604.50
1628.50
1628.50
1604.50