Jumat, 04 Maret 2011

Gold vs Ghaddafi

Emas dapat memperoleh di New York, memperpanjang jangka mingguan terpanjang di lebih dari tiga tahun, seperti gejolak di Libya dan inflasi kekhawatiran akan mempercepat meningkatkan permintaan untuk alternatif investasi.



pemimpin oposisi Libya menolak tawaran mediasi oleh Presiden Venezuela Hugo Chavez sebagai pemberontak bersenjata berjuang untuk menguasai pelabuhan minyak di pusat dan jalur pantai timur negara itu. Emas jatuh yang paling dalam enam minggu kemarin setelah mencapai rekor $ 1441 per ounce pada tanggal 2 Maret.



"Situasi di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara benar-benar tegang dan ada banyak ketidakpastian," ujar Bernard Sin, kepala mata uang dan perdagangan logam di MKS Finance SA, pengilang bullion di Jenewa. Meskipun ada sudah "surga" membeli, "permintaan fisik melambat sedikit" karena harga yang lebih tinggi, katanya.



Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman April naik US $ 2.10, atau 0,1 persen menjadi $ 1,418.50 per ounce jam 8:00 di Comex di New York. Mereka naik 0,7 persen minggu ini, ditetapkan untuk uang muka mingguan keenam, jangka terpanjang sejak September 2007. Logam untuk pengiriman segera di London 0,2 persen lebih tinggi pada $ 1,418.28.

Emas jatuh ke $ 1.418 per ounce di pagi hari "memperbaiki" di London, yang digunakan oleh beberapa perusahaan pertambangan untuk menjual produksi, dari $ 1,421.50  



Futures tergelincir 1,5 persen kemarin sebagai Liga Arab mengadakan pembicaraan dengan Venezuela tentang telepon Chavez untuk sebuah kata "komisi mediasi." Oposisi juru bicara Mustafa Gheriani "kami tidak menerima negosiasi" dengan pemimpin Libya Muammar Qaddafi, menurut Associated Press.

Menumbangkan Pemimpin



Kekhawatiran tentang inflasi dan kehinaan mata uang membuat harga emas naik 30 persen tahun lalu untuk kenaikan tahunan ke-10. negara-negara Asia dari Cina ke Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini untuk mengekang kenaikan harga konsumen. Meningkatkan pangan dan harga komoditas telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap kerusuhan yang menggulingkan pemimpin di Tunisia dan Mesir, dengan protes juga meletus di Yaman, Bahrain, Oman, Yordania, Aljazair, Maroko, Iran dan Irak.

Sebagai minyak telah naik diatas $ 100 per barel di New York, mounting tekanan inflasi di Eropa diminta Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet kemarin mengatakan ECB kemungkinan akan menaikkan suku bulan depan untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir tiga tahun.



"Mengapa ada orang yang menjual emas sekarang, dengan situasi Timur Tengah masih sangat tidak pasti, dan semua alasan moneter untuk menahan emas masih utuh?" Ujar Adrian Day, Presiden Adrian Day Asset Management. "Inflasi meningkat secara perlahan."



Perak untuk pengiriman Mei di New York naik 0,3 persen di $ 34,44 per ounce setelah naik ke $ 34,975 pada tanggal 2 Maret, harga tertinggi sejak 7 Maret 1980. Itu tahun berjangka mencapai rekor $ 50,35.

Paladium untuk pengiriman Juni turun 0,6 persen menjadi $ 810,20 per ounce. Ini menyentuh tinggi 10-tahun $ 863,70 pada 22 Februari. Platinum untuk pengiriman April adalah 0,1 persen lebih rendah pada $ 1,830.30 per ounce.

Greenspan Says Government ‘Activism’ Hampering U.S. Recovery

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a surge in U.S. government “activism,” including fiscal stimulus, housing subsidies and new regulations, is holding back the economic recovery.

Increased bond issuance by the Treasury Department crowds out borrowers with the weakest credit ratings, Greenspan said in an article in International Finance, published on the Web today. At least half of the shortfall in companies’ capital spending “can be explained by the shock of vastly greater government- created uncertainties embedded in the competitive, regulatory and financial environments” since the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) in 2008, Greenspan said.

Greenspan’s conclusions fit with his long-held free-market ideology and may aid Republican lawmakers who argue that cutting federal spending now will help spur job growth. Critics including members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission have said Greenspan’s failure to regulate the mortgage market last decade helped fuel the housing bubble whose bursting precipitated the financial crisis.

“Much intervention turns out to hobble markets rather than enhancing them,” said Greenspan, 84, who was appointed Fed chairman by Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1987 and served until 2006. “Any withdrawal of action to allow the economy to heal could restore some, or much, of the dynamic of the pre-crisis decade, without its imbalances.”

Aktivitas Ekonomi AS Meningkat

Aktivitas ekonomi meningkat meskipun AS kini hadapi masalah anggaran dan inflasi, ungkap mantan Ketua Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan kepada CNBC. Ekonomi AS sedang arungi tingginya harga minyak dan ketidakpastian defisit anggaran yang diprediksi mencapai $1,5 triliun tahun ini.


"Momentum pertumbuhan tidak perlu diragukan. Terlepas dari tingginya harga minyak, masalah utang zona-euro, bengkaknya defisit anggaran, ada alasan untuk optimis,” papar Greenspan. Data juga tunjukkan AS ciptakan 192.000 lapangan pekerjaan dan tingkat pengangguran turun ke level 8,9%.


Greenspan menolak berkomentar terhadap cara menarik stimulus Fed sebesar $2,3 triliun dari perekonomian. Tapi, Greenspan merasa Fed bisa mulai menjual sebagian aset yang dibeli. Mantan pimpinan bank sentral AS juga wanti ancaman inflasi mengingat tingginya harga bahan pangan dan energi, meski indeks harga produsen dan output gap belum tunjukkan ancaman tersebut. “Meskipun suku bunga tetap renda, tapi bukan berarti inflasi tidak akan datan. Ketika masyarakat katakan inflasi sangat rendah, jawabannya adalah tunggu,” ungkap Greenspan.

Payrolls Up 192,000, Near Estimates; Rate Falls to 8.9%

U.S. employers hired more workers in February than in any month since May last year and the unemployment rate fell to a near two-year low, the strongest sign yet the recovery has become self-sustaining.


Unemployment Line


Nonfarm payrolls increased 192,000, the Labor Department said on Friday, in line with expectations. Data for December and January was revised to show 58,000 more jobs created than previously estimated.
The last time payrolls grew so much was last May, when the government's hiring of temporary workers for a census boosted payrolls hugely.

As in previous months, the private sector accounted for all the job gains in February, with an addition of 222,000 positions—the largest gain since April 2010. That was up from 68,000 in January.

The unemployment rate dipped to 8.9 percent, the lowest since April 2009, from 9.0 percent in January as more people reported finding work.
"We have moved into the expansion phase of the economic cycle and the economy is self-sustaining," said Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.

"The numbers confirm that labor market conditions are gradually improving. It is critical that the pace of improvement accelerate over the course of the year given the overall size of the unemployment problem," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer of PIMCO in Newport Beach, Calif.

Still, February's bounce in employment after payrolls were depressed by extreme weather in January is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its ultra-easy monetary policies.
The jobless rate has dropped 0.9 percentage point since November. The rate is derived from a survey of households, while the job creation figure comes from a separate survey of employers. The household survey showed more people were employed in February.
Fed Watching Jobless Rate
The unemployment rate is being closely watched by the Fed and could well determine the timing of the U.S. central bank's first interest rate hike. The Fed, which meets on March 15, has held overnight lending rates near zero since December 2008.
Economists believe the Fed will want to see payroll gains in excess of 200,000 for at least six to nine months and a significant decline in unemployment before starting to withdraw its massive monetary support from the economy.
"If we start to add enough jobs, sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, I think the Fed will feel a little more comfortable in easing off the throttle," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pa.
"But right now, the economy is still fragile. There are a number of potholes that we can hit and the Fed is not going to want to act on exiting any time soon."
A surge in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel due to turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa represents a new headwind for the economy.
But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week said higher oil prices were unlikely to steal much from growth or spark broader inflation, as long they are not sustained.

With the jobless rate far from its natural 5-6 percent level and inflation still short of the Fed's target of close to 2 percent, analysts expect the Fed to complete its $600 billion government bond-buying program through June to help the economy.

Employment in the private service sector, which pulled back in January, when much of the United States was hit by heavy snowfall, showed solid growth in February, rising 152,000 from 33,000 jobs in January.
Payrolls in the goods-producing industries saw a weather-related bounce of 70,000, with construction increasing 33,000 after shedding 22,000 jobs in January. Manufacturing, a sector that is powering the recovery, added 33,000 jobs.

Government employment fell 30,000, contracting for a fourth straight month, pulled down by state and local governments, which are under heavy budgetary pressures.
The average work week was steady at 34.2 hours. Average hourly earnings rose one cent.

ECB April Rate Hike Would Be 'a Mistake': Roubini

The European Central Bank should not raise interest rates in its next meeting because it risks widening the gap between struggling periphery economies and the stronger ones at the center of the euro zone, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Friday.


Nouriel Roubini


ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday a rate hike in April was possible but not certain and revived the bank's old coded warning of monetary tightening by using the phrase "strong vigilance," often heard during the tightening cycle between 2005 and 2007. 

"In my view that's a mistake … I think that the ECB is rushing too fast into hiking rates," Roubini said in an interview. (See video of full interview here).
Output in the periphery euro zone economies is still contracting and the ECB rate raise will lead to a strengthening of the euro [EUR=X  1.3985    0.002  (+0.14%)   ] that will further affect competitiveness in the area, he explained.
"I fear that Portugal is going to need an IMF and EU program … I think the biggest issue is going to be Spain, that is right now too big to fail but also too big to save," Roubini also said.
The monetary policy response to the rises in oil prices will be different in various parts of the world, he said.
There will be an acceleration of monetary tightening in some developing countries, while the Bank of England, which so far has remained on hold, might raise rates soon, according to Roubini.

The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold as it looks more at core inflation that excludes volatile food and oil prices, he added.
"It looks like the US Fed is still on hold, they're going to stay on hold for a little while," Roubini said.
He reiterated the view in a report by Roubini Global Economics that muni bond defaults will not exceed $100 billion and losses caused by these defaults will be even smaller, around $35 billion.

Non-Farm AS Menggembirakan

AS mencetak lebih banyak lapangan pekerjaan di bulan Februari seiring berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi terbesar di dunia. Non-Farm payroll naik sebanyak 192.000, lebih tinggi dari prediksi 185.000 dan revisi publikasi sebelumnya 63.000. Tingkat pengangguran juga turun 8,9%, lebih baik dari perkiraan 9,1% dan data Januari 9%.


Kenaikan lapangan pekerjaan tentunya perkuat optimisme pimpinan Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, kepada Kongres minggu ini. "Ada alasan untuk optimisme terhadap pasar tenaga kerja di bulan-bulan mendatang,” ungkap Fed’s Bernanke. Tumbuhnya lapangan pekerjaan dan meningktnya kepercayaan konsumen telah berhasil dongkrak penjualan perusahaan JC Penney dan Macy's. "Aktivitas ekonomi terus meningkat, lebih baik dari tahun lalu dan ini dapat dilihat dari berbagai indikator ekonomi," ungkap Paul O'Neill, petinggi Blackstone Group dan mantan Men Keuangan AS kepada Bloomberg Television. "AS sedang alami proses penyembuhan ekonomi."

Meskipun data menggembirakan, dollar sempat tertekan dan Dow kurangi penguatan seiring memburuknya kondisi politik di Libya yang mendorong kenaikan harga minyak lebih lanjut. Tingginya harga minyak dapat mengancam pemulihan sehingga grogoti outlook ekonomi AS.

Gold at night

Pergerakan emas siang ini terlihat sedikit menguat. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi potensial bullish. Pecahnya resistan 1424.80 akan membawa emas menguat kembali ke 1438.55. Sebaliknya jika resistan 1424.80 gagal ditembus maka kuat dugaan emas akan melemah kembali ke 1405.50.

Optimisme Ekonomi

Bursa saham Eropa menguat akibat optimisme bagusnya laporan tenaga kerja AS yang dapat jadi indikasi berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi terbesar dunia. Bursa saham London, FrankFurt, Paris naik 0,5% meskipun investor terus cermati kondisi di Libya. Sektor automotif dominasi kenaikan indeks akibat harapan meningkatnya permintaan kendaraan.

Laporan tenaga kerja AS, yang akan dirilis 2030 WIB, diprediksi tunjukkan perusahaan merekrut lebih banyak tenaga kerja seiring meningkatnya aktivitas perekonomian. Nonfarm payrolls diperkirakan meningkat 185.000 di Februari, lebih tinggi dari publikasi Januari yang bertambah 36.000. Ekonom percaya Federal Reserve ingin melihat penambahan lapangan pekerjaan lebih dari 200.000 selama enam hingga sembilan bulan dan turunnya tingkat pengangguran sebelum mulai menarik stimulus moneter dari ekonomi.

PC Nyaris Berakhir

Penjualan personal computers (PC) global pada tahun 2011 dan 2011 akan berkurang secara signifikan. Peralihan minat masyarakat dunia ke komputer tablet merupakan alasan utama di balik proyeksi tersebut.

Lembaga riset teknologi Gartner merevisi turun angka pertumbuhan PC untuk tahun 2011 dari 15,9% menjadi 10,5%. Pengguna komputer akan lebih memilih tablet untuk menggantikan komputer lama mereka. Secara total, penjualan PC tahun ini diperkirakan sebesar 389 juta unit. Sedangkan jumlah pengiriman untuk 2012 diprediksi naik 13,6%, atau turun dibandingkan proyeksi terdahulu, 14,8% dengan total sales mencapai 440,6 juta unit.

Gartner menekankan adanya penurunan minat pasar terhadap PC mobile di tengah antusiasme menyambut alternatif PC baru, seperti iPad maupun Galaxy Tab. Pada saat bersamaan, penjualan komputer tablet bisa menembus 54 juta unit tahun ini, atau nyaris tiga kali lipat dibandingkan penjualan 2010 (15 juta unit).

"Kami pernah memperkirakan penjualan PC akan terus menguat, namun kini situasinya berbeda," ujar Geirge Schiffler, Direktur riset Gartner. Ia melihat ada kecenderungan konsumen akan mempertahankan daya tahan PC lamanya seraya menanti alternatif produk baru seperti PC tablet.

Gold today

Pergerakan emas siang ini terlihat sedikit menguat. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi potensial bullish. Pecahnya resistan 1424.80 akan membawa emas menguat kembali ke 1438.55. Sebaliknya jika resistan 1424.80 gagal ditembus maka kuat dugaan emas akan melemah kembali ke 1405.50.

Emas Waspadai Data Payrolls AS

Spot emas di $1,417.80/ons, naik $2.50 setelah sempat anjlok 1.4% di hari Kamis. Emas dapat terus tertekan jika data non-farm payrolls AS bulan Februari lebih baik dari perkiraan.
"Adanya optimisme pemulihan membuat safe haven untuk emas berkurang sehingga mendorong aksi profit-taking," menurut Phillip Futures. Survey Dow Jones memperkirakan adanya pertumbuhan tenaga kerja sebanyak 185,000 di bulan Februari. Secara teknikal emas masih bagus, menurut Barclays Capital.
"Kami perkirakan emas masih dapat menembus level $1,440 untuk selanjutnya menuju target di area $1,460 dan kemudian $1,500," katanya.

Emas Stabil Diatas $1,415; Jelang Jobs AS

Spot emas bertahan stabil hari Jumat, berkonsolidasi setelah jatuh lebih dari 1% di sesi sebelumnya, seiring investor menanti laporan jobs AS guna menilai kesehatan ekonomi terbesar dunia tersebut.
Data non-farm payroll AS, yang akan keluar hari ini, diharapkan akan menunjukkan kenaikan untuk lapangan pekerjaan baru. Hal ini akan sejalan dengan data jobless claims yang naik pada hari Rabu.
 
“Apabila data payroll yang muncul secara mengejutkan turun, harga emas mungkin akan terangkat”, dikatakan seorang trader berbasis di Tokyo. “Apabila ternyata data lebih baik dari perkiraan, hal ini mungkin akan membebani harga emas’.
 
Spot emas beranjak naik 0.2% di $1,417.89 per ons, bersiap untuk meraih penguatan tipis sebesar 0.6% setelah perdagangan singkat minggu ini.
 
Kontrak emas AS juga naik 0.2% di $1,418.60 per ons.

Payroll AS Mungkin Rebound

Kenaikan payroll di AS mungkin akan melejit untuk bulan Februari, terpicu oleh membaiknya ekonomi dan keadaan musiman, dikatakan para ekonom menjelang laporan (jobs) pemerintah hari ini. Tingkat lapangan kerja meningkat sebanyak 196.000 bulan lalu, tertingginya sejak Mei, setelah kenaikannya sebanyak 36.000 di bulan Januari, ketika badai musim dingin menekan angka lapangan kerja tersebut, menurut sebuah perkiraan jangka menengah oleh 84 ekonom yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg News. Laporan tersebut mungkin juga menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran yang naik ke 9.1% dari sebelumnya 9%.

Hangseng Today

Meskipun telah dibuka dengan gap-up, secara teknikal indikator MACD yang masih netral dan formasi triangle pada grafik berikut, menandakan bias terlihat ranging untuk jangka pendek. Break ke atas atau bawah pola triangle, baru akan mengindikasikan tren yang lebih kuat.
Namun demikian titik resisten terdekat ada pada 23435 diikuti dengan 23550 dan 23700. Sementara level support terdekat berada pada 23240 dengan 23100 sebagai support selanjutnya.
 
 
 
Resistance Level : 23435, 23550, 23700
Support Level       : 23240, 23100, 23000
Trading Range       : 23100 – 23550
Trend                      : Netral

Investor Incar Peluang di Bursa Korea

Tingginya harga minyak dan lesunya pasar menimbulkan dampak peluang pembelian saham untuk para investor terhadap saham-saham di Korea Selatan, dikatakan para analis.
Indeks bursa saham Korea, KOSPI telah anjlok sebanyak 3.9% tahun ini, membuat Seoul menjadi salah satu bursa yang berperforma buruk di Asia sejauh ini ditahun 2011.
 
Kejatuhan di KOSPI terjadi bersamaan dengan melonjaknya harga minyak mentah di NYMEX lebih dari 11% saat mencapai $100 per barel, seiring ketegangan politik di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara yang menakutkan bagi investor.
 
“Dampak tingginya harga minyak cenderung membuat tingkat konstruksi bangunan dan tekanan inflasi yang meresahkan di negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Korea”, dikatakan analis dari Daewoo Securities.
 
Akan tetapi, para analis dari Citigroup mengatakan “asumsi dasar kami adalah ketegangan di Timur Tengah hanya sementaram dan harga minyak akan segera stabil – dan berdasarkan hal tersebut, kami percaya kejatuhan (bursa) saat ini merupakan peluang yang menarik”.

Korea Express Melesat Terkait Laporan Shinsegae

Korea Express Co., perusahaan logistic terbesar di Korea, naik tinggi selama lebih dari 6 minggu di perdagangan Seoul setelah Maeil Business Newspaper mengatakan bahwa Shinsegae Co., mungkin bergabung dalam tender pembelian saham. Shinsegae, operator pertokoan diskon terbesar di Korea Selatan, berencana untuk menyerahkan surat ketertarikan sebelum tenggat waktunya hari ini, dikatakan Maeil kemarin, mengutip seorang pejabat non-resmi dari Shinsegae. Hwang Jong Soon, seorang juru bicara dari took retail tersebut, menolak berkomentar ketika dihubungi Bloomberg News

Hong Kong Perpanjang Jam Perdagangan

Operator bursa Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. mengatakan hari Kamis bahwa pihaknya akan menerapkan tahap pertama dari perpanjangan jam perdagangan, dengan penambahan 1 jam, yang dimulai hari Senin. Penerapan ini mengikuti beberapa seri sesi simulasi pasar.

Emas Waspadai Data Payrolls AS

Spot emas di $1,417.80/ons, naik $2.50 setelah sempat anjlok 1.4% di hari Kamis. Emas dapat terus tertekan jika data non-farm payrolls AS bulan Februari lebih baik dari perkiraan.
"Adanya optimisme pemulihan membuat safe haven untuk emas berkurang sehingga mendorong aksi profit-taking," menurut Phillip Futures. Survey Dow Jones memperkirakan adanya pertumbuhan tenaga kerja sebanyak 185,000 di bulan Februari. Secara teknikal emas masih bagus, menurut Barclays Capital.
"Kami perkirakan emas masih dapat menembus level $1,440 untuk selanjutnya menuju target di area $1,460 dan kemudian $1,500," katanya.

Markets Have High Hopes for Jobs Report

The markets have high expectations for the February employment report, even if economists are reluctant to go too far out on a limb after several months of big misses by the consensus forecasts.


Unemployment line
But traders, betting on a string of better employment-related data this week, are more bullish than the forecasters and are whispering about non-farm payroll numbers of 300,000 or even more. 

Economists are forecasting that roughly 200,000 jobs were added in February, up from a miniscule 36,000 jobs in January. They also expect to see an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent, up slightly from January's 9 percent, when the report is released at 8:30am ET Friday. 

The January number was about 100,000 fewer than expected, and some economists think that some of those jobs missing from January were under-reported due to bad weather, and may show up in February's number instead. 

Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi expects to see 250,000 payrolls, but he expects 100,000 of those are related to the weather loss from January. 

"So without the weather it's probably around 150,000, which is consistent with stable unemployment, but not enough to bring down unemployment. We need better. I think we'll eventually get that, but I've been thinking that for a couple of months. We're on the verge. Everything is pointing in that direction...Everything is pointing to a better job market — except for the payroll numbers," he said. 

"I'm at 200,000 with wide dispersion," said Miller Tabak's chief economic strategist Dan Greenhaus. "I wouldn't be surprised if it was 250,000 and I wouldn't be surprised if it was 175,000."
Economists say the U.S. economy is finally on the verge of creating jobs at a rate of several hundred thousand a month, but the February employment report may not tell that story. 

"I don't think it would be a disaster for the market if it doesn't come in at that level," said Cowen's head trader John O'Donoghue of the whisper numbers. 

"There's still an enormous amount of money that hasn't been committed to equities. There's plenty of money that's sitting on the sidelines and it may be it catches it, if we get a little correction, or it chases it, if the number comes in." 

Stocks on Thursday soared on optimism about the economy as oil prices moved slightly lower. The Dow was up 191 points,or 1.6 percent to 12,258, and the S&P 500 rose 1.7 percent to 1330, just 13 points below where it was before the market started to sell off on concerns about Libya and rising oil prices.
Crude was down $0.31 to $10191, and gold was off $21.20 per ounce to $1416. The dollar fell, as the euro got a lift on the expectation for higher interest rates in the euro zone

There were encouraging employment news in both the ISM manufacturing and services surveys this week, and in the manufacturing survey, the employment reading was at its highest level since 1973. The ADP private sector payrolls this week were reported at 217,000, and the NFIB small business survey Thursday reported hiring plans were positive for a fifth straight month, and job openings at the highest level since September, 2008. 

Also encouraging was Thursday's weekly jobless claims report of 368,000, the second week in a row below 400,000. 

"I think we should start to see (monthly job growth of) 150,000 to 250,000 range," said Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk. 

"It's going to be in fits and starts. If we stay in that range and average a little above 200,000, it will generate a little over 2.5 million to 2.7 million jobs this year. That would be good but it would leave us four million in the hole." Swonk expects to see 199,000 non farm payrolls for February. 

"The biggest thing to see is how broad-based the gains are," said Swonk. "So far, it's been clear the manufacturing sector is adding jobs but the much larger services sector has been a laggard."
Economists expect to see the unemployment rate pick up as people who had stopped looking for work begin to seek jobs again. Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna is actually trimming his expectation for the unemployment rate to 8.9 percent. 

"I think that could surprise people on Friday," he said.

President Obama Says Gaddafi Must Leave Libya

President Barack Obama said Muammar Gaddafi must leave Libya, saying the besieged ruler has lost his legitmacy to lead.
Muammar Gaddafi

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi

Speaking briefly at the White House Thursday, Obama said that the U.S. was "outraged by the violence" in the North African country as rebels and forces loyal to Gaddafi continue to battle.
Obama also said that sanctions are in place to hold Gaddaffi and all Libyan leaders accountable for their actions.
Obama said the the U.S. is examining all options in regards to what steps it may take toward Libya and will "make any decisions about Libya with our allies."

Obama added that the U.S. is sending humanitarian aid teams to the Libyan border and that the U.S. stands for freedom and democracy for the Libyan people.

Obama's comments come as Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has accepted a proposal by his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for international mediation to end an uprising in the North African country, a Chavez spokesman said Thursday.

Venezuela hopes Brazil's former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could head an international mediation commission to seek peace in Libya, a government source told Reuters. 

Reports Chavez's proposal was being taken seriously by Arab leaders pushed down oil prices after a days-long rally on worries violence in Libya will hit supplies. 

Like Gaddafi, Chavez casts himself as an anti-imperial revolutionary and has visited him in Libya six times. Analysts are skeptical Chavez can bring any immediate end to fighting in Libya, where Gaddafi faces an increasingly organized rebel army. 

Information Minister Andres Izarra said Venezuela's foreign minister spoke on Thursday with his Libyan counterpart, who confirmed that Gaddafi's government supported the idea of an international commission.
Izarra confirmed the Arab League had shown interest in Chavez's proposal to send an international commission to talk with both sides in Libya. 

But other reports say the Libyan rebels have rejected any peace plan proposed by Venezuela. Rebels who have set up a National Libyan Council in east Libya are open to talks only on Muammar Gaddafi's resignation or exile to stop bloodshed, an aide to a top rebel figure said on Thursday.

"Oil fell on news of the plan. Brent crude fell more than $3 to $113.09 per barrel as investors eyed a possible deal brokered by Chavez. It later edged up to $114.78

In Paris, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said France and Britain would support the idea of setting up a no-fly zone over Libya if Gaddafi's forces continued to attack civilians. Some 6,000 Libyans have been killed since the revolt which broke out in February the Libyan Human Rights League said on Wednesday.
The uprising, the bloodiest yet against long-serving rulers in the Middle East and North Africa, has torn through the OPEC-member country and knocked out nearly 50 percent of its 1.6 million barrels per day output, the bedrock of Libya's economy. 

In Libya's east, the site of a struggle for control of a strategically vital Mediterranean coastal road and oil industry facilities, witnesses said a warplane for a second day bombed the oil terminal town Brega, 800 km (500 miles) east of Tripoli. 

Protests in Libya

People attend  the funerals of a Libyan rebel killed the previous day while defending a strategically important oil refinery town from a regime counter-attack in Brega.

But on the ground, events appeared to turn against Gaddafi, as rebels spearheading the unprecedented popular revolt pushed their frontline against government loyalists west of Brega, where they had repulsed an attack a day earlier. 

The opposition fighters said troops loyal to Gaddafi had been driven back to Ras Lanuf, home to another major oil terminal and 600 km (375 miles) east of Tripoli. 

They also said they had captured a group of mercenaries.
In an angry scene at al-Uqayla, east of Ras Lanuf, a rebel shouted inches from the face of a captured young African and alleged mercenary: "You were carrying guns, yes or no? You were with Gaddafi's brigades yes or no?" The silent youth was shoved onto his knees into the dirt. 

A man held a pistol close to the boy's face before a reporter protested and told the man that the rebels were not judges. 

In The Hague, International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said Gaddafi and members of his inner circle, including some of his sons, could be investigated for alleged crimes committed since the uprising broke out in mid-February. 

Arrest Warrants

He said a request for arrest warrants over Libya could be made in a few months time.
"We have identified some individuals in the de facto or former authority who have authority over the security forces who allegedly committed the crimes," Moreno-Ocampo said. "They are Muammar Gaddafi, his inner circle including some of his sons, who had this de facto authority. There are also some people with formal authority who should pay attention to crimes committed by their people." 

Libyan government spokesman Musa Ibrahim told BBC Radio the news from The Hague was "close to a joke." 
 
"No fact-finding mission has been sent to Libya. No diplomats, no ministers, no NGOs or organizations of any type were sent to Libya to check the facts ... No one can be sent to prison based on media reports," he said. 

The rebels, armed with rocket launchers, anti-aircraft guns and tanks, called on Wednesday for U.N.-backed air strikes on Foreign mercenaries it said were fighting for Gaddafi.
Opposition activists called for a no-fly zone, echoing a demand by Libya's deputy U.N. envoy, who now opposes Gaddafi. 

"Bring Bush! Make a no fly zone, bomb the planes," shouted soldier-turned-rebel Nasr Ali, referring to a no-fly zone imposed on Iraq in 1991 by then U.S. President George Bush.
Italy said it was preparing for a potential mass exodus of migrants escaping turmoil in North Africa after a rise in flows of illegal immigrants from Tunisia, the initial destination for tens of thousands who have fled violence in Libya. 

Save The Children and Medecins Sans Frontieres said they were struggling to get medicines and care to Libya's needy, with gunmen blocking roads and civilians too scared to seek help.
At a meeting with adoring loyalists in Tripoli on Wednesday, Gaddafi slammed "armed gangsters" he said were behind the unrest as part of a plot to colonize Libya and grab its oil, and said if foreigners intervened "another Vietnam will begin." The Libyan government has tried to persuade people in Tripoli that life continues as normal, but the crisis was affecting everyday life. 

There were queues outside banks and residents said food prices had gone up, while the street value of the Libyan dinar had fallen dramatically against the dollar.
A fish market near Tripoli's Green Square was mostly empty. "The situation is affecting us," said Ismail, a fisherman. "All the Egyptian workers who run the boats have left."

Preview Non-Farm Payrolls

Melihat tahun lalu, salah satu sektor yang masih lemah dalam pemulihan AS adalah sektor tenaga kerja. Seiring perekonomian AS yang mulai stabil, perusahaan di Amerika berhenti mengurangi pekerja namun permasalahan utama adalah minimnya perekrutan. Perusahaan di AS sedang menyimpan dana dan berhati-hati dalam menggunakan anggarannya. Penurunan tajam sebesar 0.8% pada tingkat pengagguran dalam 2 bulan terakhir terkesan mencurigakan terutama setelah penurunan ini merupakan yang terbesar dalam lebih dari 50 tahun. Sebagian dapat diartikan sebagai kemajuan pada pasar tenaga kerja namun juga ada penurunan pada tingkat partisipasi.

Tingkat klaim pengangguran juga sangat rendah dengan rata-rata 4-mingguan yang turun ke level terendah sejak Juli 2008, ini dapat diartikan sebagai menguatnya pertumbuhan tingkat pekerjaan dan itu dapat dimulai dengan laporan non-farm payrolls hari ini.


Seperti disebutkan sebelumnya, salah satu cara agar laporan NFP dapat diartikan positif bagi dollar AS adalah jika payrolls dapat melebihi 250k, tingkat pengangguran tetap atau membaik bersama dengan revisi naik pada bulan sebelumnya. Jika non-farm payrolls bagus namun tingkat pengangguran naik, rally pada dollar akan terbatas. Sama halnya apa bila data bulan Januari direvisi naik tajam dan angka bulan Februari sama atau dibawah ekspektasi, dollar kemungkinan akan rally namun terbatas. 

Optimisme Non-Farm Payrolls Angkat Wall Street

Saham AS ditutup naik tajam setelah rally sepanjang sesi pada hari Kamis seiring laporan yang bagus pada jumlah klaim pengangguran dan turunnya harga minyak membuat investor untuk memulihkan penurunan sebelumnya pada awal pekan ini menjelang data tenaga kerja penting hari Jumat. "Menurutku pasar puas dengan data klaim pengangguran," ucap Jeremy Zirin, kepala strategis saham AS pada UBS Wealth Management. "Sektor terlemah dalam pemuliha yaitu pekerjaan mulai pulih."


Data ekonomi hari ini menunjukkan jumlah klaim pengangguran turun sebanyak 20,000 menjadi 368,000 minggu lalu, level terendah sejak Mei 2008, laporan dari Dep.Tenaga Kerja. Fakta bahwa jumlah klaim berada di bawah 400,000 untuk minggu kedua dianggap sebagai sinyal dimulainya pertumbuhan tingkat pekerjaan. Bagusnya data ini menguatkan ekspektasi bahwa laporan tenaga kerja pemerintah ahti Jumat akan menujukkan kenaikan yang tajam. Ekonom memperkirakan Dep.Tenaga Kerja untuk melaporkan kenaikan sebesar 185,000 pada nonfarm payrolls, dan 190,000 pada sektor swasta, menurut Reuters.
 
Beberapa ekonom telah merevisi naik estimasi mereka akibat data klaim pengangguran dan ADP yang menunjukkan penambahan pekerja sektor swasta sebanyak bulan lalu. Sementara data lain menunjukkan indikasi penjualan bulanan pada toko peritel naik melebihi perkiraan di bulan Februari. Perkiraan analis untuk kenaikan sebesar 3.6% pada tingkat penjualan.

Lockhart Tetap Waspada Terhadap Inflasi

Lonjakan pada harga komoditas membuat konsumen memperkirakan kenaikan harga dalam waktu dekat, dan pejabat Federal Reserve harus memastikan ekspektasi jangka panjang masih dalam kendali, ucap salah satu pejabat bank sentral. Pada saat bersamaan, tingkat pengangguran AS masih jauh terlalu tinggi, dan pemulihan ekonomi masih membutuhkan banyak bantuan dari kebijakan moneter Fed yang akomodatif, ucap Presiden Fed bagian Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart.


Gejolak politik di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah telah memicu kenaikan tajam pada harga minyak. Hal itu telah memicu inflasi, terutama mengingat stimulus Fed yang belum dijalankan – termasuk pembelian obligasi pemerintah sebesar 2.3 milyar dollar hingga bulan Juni nanti. Data ekonomi belakangan ini menandakan inflasi masih terkendali, dan masih jauh di bawah target Fed sekitar 2% atau sedikit di bawah. "Kita harus tetap waspada akan kenaikan apapun pada inflasi yang dapat merubah ekspektasi jangka panjang," ucap Lockhart. Ia juga mengatakan masalah tingkat pengangguran jangka panjang sebagai salah satu tantangan terbesar AS.

Optimisme Non-Farm Payrolls Angkat Wall Street

Saham AS rally pada hari Kamis seiring harga minyak yang mulai turun dan data ekonomi yang melebihi perkiraan menguatkan ekspektasi kenaikan pada laporan tingkat pekerja AS untuk bulan Februari (non-farm payrolls) hari Jumat. Dengan kenaikan harga minyak yang terhenti, investor saham kembali fokus kepada perkeonomian AS, yang telah menunjukkan kemajuan yang stabil dalam laporan minggu ini.
Scott Marcouiller, kepala strategis teknikal pasar pada Wells Fargo Advisors di St. Louis, mengatakan data yang cenderung bagus belakangan ini telah mendorong optimisme atas angka non-farm payrolls yang bagus pada laporan Dep.Tenaga Kerja.