Fundamental Analysis, Nov 22nd, 2012

Euro hits 6-1/2 month peak vs yen, edges up on US dollar

The euro climbed to a 6-1/2-month high on the yen and rebounded versus the dollar in choppy trading on Wednesday as comments by Germany's chancellor spurred optimism European leaders will reach an agreement on Greek funding.
Europe's common currency dropped earlier after Greece's international lenders failed to reach agreement on releasing emergency aid as they haggled over how to reduce the country's
debt to a sustainable level.
The euro later trimmed losses after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she saw chances of a deal at a meeting of European finance ministers on Monday.
The yen, meanwhile, fell across the board on weak Japanese export data and expectations of further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. It fell to a 6-1/2 month low against the euro and
a 7-1/2 month trough versus the dollar.
The euro hit a peak of 105.82 yen <EURJPY=>, its highest since early May. In afternoon New York activity it traded slightly below the peak at 105.72 yen, up 1 percent on the day.
Against the dollar, the euro <EUR=> was up slightly at  $1.2825, off a session low of $1.2733.
 U.S. markets are closed on Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Wall St gains after Gaza truce in light holiday trade

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday after a ceasefire was declared to end the flare-up in violence between Israel and the Palestinians, though the lack of a deal to release emergency aid for Greece limited the market's advance.
Investors also remained anxious about the mandatory tax increases and spending cuts that would go into effect in the new year if a deal is not reached to prevent it - known as the "fiscal cliff" - though policymakers are not expected to get back to negotiations until after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.
Trading volume was light ahead of the holiday on Thursday, when the U.S. stock market will be closed. With less than an hour left to trade until the closing bell, about 3.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with year-to-date daily average volume of 6.5 billion shares. On Friday, the U.S. stock market will close early at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT).
 A truce between Israel and Hamas gave stocks some support around midday after Egypt announced a ceasefire will come into effect later in the day.
Positive comments from U.S. politicians that they will work to find common ground have helped the S&P 500 recoup some of that loss in recent sessions.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 49.60 points, or 0.39 percent, to 12,838.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 2.64 points, or 0.19 percent, to 1,390.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 10.10 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,926.78.

Gold flat as Greek aid stalling, MidEast truce eyed

Gold was little changed on Wednesday after trading in a narrow range, caught between recession worries in Europe and the United States and safe-haven bids over concerns about violence in the Middle East.
Bullion ended near the top of an $11 daily range as the failure of international lenders to reach a deal to release emergency aid for Greece for a second week.
While gold is sometimes viewed as a safe haven in times of financial chaos, most investors used the metal as a hedge against inflation and central-bank money printing. Therefore, the disagreement on a Greek financial bailout decreased the metal's inflation-hedge appeal.
The metal was under pressure from data that showed U.S. consumer sentiment inched up, but appeared to be stalling after several months of improvement. Uncertainty also grew over a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that may come into effect early next year in the United States.
Spot gold <XAU=> inched up 0.1 percent to $1,728.94 an ounce by 2:03 p.m. EST (1903 GMT).
U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> settled up $4.60 at $1,728.20, with trading volume over 150,000 lots in line with its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Gains on Economic Optimism, Declining Fuel Stockpiles

Oil advanced for the third time in four days as U.S. inventories fell unexpectedly last week and fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits.
Prices increased as stockpiles of crude and oil products dropped and jobless claims decreased by 41,000. Oil pared gains after Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire, reducing concern that supplies would be disrupted.
Crude oil for January delivery gained 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $87.33 a barrel at 1:34 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached $87.89 in earlier trading.
Brent for January settlement advanced 88 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $110.71 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
Oil inventories decreased for the first time in three weeks to 374.5 million barrels, the Energy Department said. The median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was a gain of 1 million.
Gasoline inventories fell 1.55 million barrels to 200.4 million. Distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel, dropped 2.68 million to 112.8 million, the lowest level in more than four years.

Nikkei set to rise, may test a six-month high

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to open firmer on Thursday and is within sight of a six-month high on expectations a sharply weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters.
The dollar rose as high as 82.55 yen <JPY=>, its strongest level since early April, on a pledge by the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, tipped to take power in an election next month, to push for further central bank easing. A softer yen allows exporters to earn more when they repatriate overseas earnings, and boosts their competitiveness.
The Nikkei <.N225> climbed 0.9 percent to end at a two-month high of 9,222.52 on Wednesday, and the broader Topix <.TOPX> advanced 0.7 percent to 767.01.
Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 9,325, up from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 9,220.
Market players said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 9,200 to 9,350 on Thursday. If the index breaches the 9,300-line, it will be the first time since May.
Market analysts said investor sentiment remains upbeat, but markets are closely watching talks by U.S policymakers on how to avoid the U.S. "fiscal cliff," which has raised fears about the direction of the world's largest economy.

Seoul shares seen up on easing Gaza tension, firm Wall Street

Seoul shares are likely to regain some ground on Thursday, after a truce was declared between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza strip, helping push up U.S. stocks overnight.
"We expect the KOSPI to rise modestly as the Middle East risk has abated with a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas," IBK Securities wrote in a morning note to investors.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.3 percent to 1,884.04 points on Wednesday, snapping a two-day rally.
Wall Street gains were modest with trading subdued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. [.N]

Hong Kong shares seen higher, China flash PMI eyed

Hong Kong shares could start higher on Thursday, with a preliminary survey of November manufacturing activity in China expected at around 0145 GMT that could offer more clues on the state of the world's second-largest economy.
The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday could keep turnover in Hong Kong muted, with price movements on the day magnified by low volume.    
On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> climbed 1.4 percent, its best daily showing since Sept 14. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong jumped 1.7 percent.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.9 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.8 percent at 0053 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Masih Muluskah Jalan Stimulus

Melihat banyaknya stimulus yang dilakukan oleh para bank sentral utama dunia, investor sepertinya masih harus memutar otak untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga untuk melihat dampak stimulus yang dilakukan. Terlebih saat stimulus yang diluncurkan bank sentral tersebut ternyata tidak sesuai dengan harapan atau ekspektasi pasar, terutama apabila terjadi hal-hal yang bersifat force majeur.

Hal ini bisa dilihat pada stimulus yang dilakukan oleh Bank of Japan baru-baru ini. Stimulus berupa penambahan dana sebesar 11 triliun Yen sepertinya dianggap masih mengecewakan, dimana target yang ditetapkan sebelumnya adalah dalam kisaran 10 triliun – 65 triliun Yen, walau masih sedikit diatas level terendahnya, paling tidak angka 50% dari kisaran tersebut seharusnya, sebagaimana diharapkan pasar, terjadi.

Bahkan sempat dikabarkan bahwa BoJ sepertinya mulai kehilangan independensi terhadap intervensi yang dilakukan mata uangnya; bukannya melakukan intervensi terhadap Yen (melakukan aksi jual Yen untuk memulihkan kondisi ekspor), justru melakukan penambahan dana untuk pembelian aset yang ternyata dibawah ekspektasi dan meluncurkan pinjaman dengan bunga yang rendah tanpa adanya batasan jumlah kepada sektor perbankan.

Hal itu menimbulkan pertanyaan tentunya, mengapa justru langkah yang kurang popular atau diluar kebiasaan justru dilakukan. Ini pula yang menyebabkan pasar merasa kecewa dengan langkah setengah hati yang dilakukan oleh Bank of Japan, dimana apabila diamati, yang dilakukan oleh BoJ serupa dengan langkah yang diambil oleh bank sentral AS, Federal Reserve Bank, yang alih-alih melonggarkan kebijakan, tetapi justru melakukan pembelian aset (yang sepertinya dengan dana yang terbatas).

Itu yang terjadi di Jepang. Sedangkan di AS sendiri, badai Sandy yang memporak-porandakan Wall Street beserta kota-kota besar disana seperti New York, New Jersey, Manhattan hingga sepanjang pantai menuju New England masih menyisakan duka yang mendalam dengan banyaknya korban berjatuhan dan potensi biaya yang harus dikeluarkan untuk mengembalikan kondisi disana seperti semula yang timbul dari masalah transportasi, infrastruktur dan perbankan.

Wall Street yang ditutup selama 2 hari pun masih menyisakan bagaimana perdagangan di bursa AS sempat sedikit tersendat, dihantui oleh adanya perbaikan yang mungkin akan menelan biaya dan waktu yang cukup banyak.

Badai Sandy pun masih menyisakan pertanyaan, apakah pemulihan perekonomian akan dapat berjalan dengan mulus, melihat bahwa adanya serangan badai Sandy sempat mencuatkan kemungkinan hambatan pemulihan dan mungkin akan berdampak terhadap rilis data tingkat tenaga kerja di AS. Apakah mungkin akan diluncurkan kembali stimulus.

Mungkin anggapan bahwa QE4 di AS tidaklah berlebihan bila dampak dari badai Sandy terus mempersuram keadaan pemulihan perekonomian disana. Kekhawatiran terhadap banjir di pusat kota New York dan kekhawatiran akan potensi kerusakan di fasilitas nuklir di AS sendiri bisa saja mencuatkan langkah-langkah pemulihan, menjelang pemilihan presiden AS. Secara garis besar, dapat disimpulkan bahwa stimulus-stimulus baru akan mulai bermunculan. Dan masih mampukah stimulus (dari AS) akan terus berjalan dalam menghadapi rilis data ekonomi sepanjang awal bulan baru? Hal ini masih harus diamati lebih jauh tentunya.

BBH: Yunani Masih Memegang Resiko Substansial

Meskipun berhasil meloloskan paket penghematan terbaru, pemerintah Yunani masih dihadapkan pada resiko yang substansial, menurut pandangan analis Brown Brothers Harriman pada hari Kamis. "Dibutuhkan persetujuan dari parlemen Jerman sebelum dana talangan dapat dikucurkan, dan dalam kondisi seperti itu pemerintah Yunani tidak dapat menjamin sepenuhnya tentang apa yang akan terjadi," kata analis BBH.

Sementara di tempat lain, mereka melihat resiko perpecahan yang kian besar. "Banyak kalangan, termasuk Kami, memprediksi jika bailout untuk Spanyol hampir tak terelakkan. Namun kenyataannya Rajoy masih terus mengulur waktu. Selain itu, Pemilou catalonia dalam beberapa pekan ke depan akan kian menyoroti kekuatan sentrifugal yang terlihat di seluruh Eropa (Skotlandia, Catalonia, Venesia dan kasus pengadilan Bavaria yang berupaya mengakhiri subsidi untuk daerah miskin di Jerman)."

Dengan perekonomian kawasan yang masih akan berkontraksi, maka satu-satunya harapan realistis yang tersisa adalah perlambatan ekonomi yang moderat dan singkat.

Untuk As, ekonomi masih akan terus terancam oleh "Fiscazl cliff" mengingat hasil pemilu kemarin belum mendatangkan perubahan secara substansial. Pasar juga masih menantikan keputusan kebijakan selanjutnya dari Federal reserve AS menjelang berakhirnya program Operation Twist dalam beberapa minggu mendatang.

Yield Obligasi Yunani Anjlok Ke Level Terendah

Yield obligasi Yunani berhasil melemah ke level terendah nya sejak restrukturisasi utang Yunani di awal tahun ini akibat spekulasi para investor bahwa Yunani dalam waktu dekat akan melakukan buy back surat utang dari para investor swasta.

Penurunan yield obligasi Yunani terpicu setelah Jerman memberikan sinyal di hari Rabu untuk menyetujui tambahan ekstra dana pinjaman ke Yunani sebesar 10 milyar Euro dalam program buy back surat utang Yunani sendiri dari para pemilih obligasi untuk mereduksi tumpukan hutangnya.

Terpantau sejauh ini Yield obligasi Yunani yang bergerak berlawanan dengan harga surat utang Yunani dilaporkan turun ke level 16.05% pada tenor 10-tahun.

Emas Sudah Mahal? Tunggu Hingga Mencapai $5,000: Schiff

Pemangkasan anggaran pengeluaran publik dengan kebijakan moneter yang sangat longgar oleh Federal Reserve dan bank sentral global lainnya akan memaksa emas ke $5,000 per ounce dalam waktu 2 tahun kedepan, catat seorang investor, Peter Schiff., dan menambahkan bahwa hany satu arah pergerakan emas dalam kurun waktu tersebut: NAIK. Dampak naiknya harga emas akan membuat orang menjauh dari emas sepertinya kurang tepat. Ia memperbarui kritiknya terkait kebijakan pembelian obligasi - dikombinasikan dengan kebijakan cheap money policy dari bank sentral utama tersebut - akhirnya akan menyalakan bara hiperinflasi dan menyebabkan devaluasi tajam dolar AS

Emas Stabil Ditengah Tingginya Permintaan Bank Sentral

Harga spot emas tidak banyak berubah di sesi Eropa seiring volum perdagangan yang tipis ditengah perayaan Thanksgiving di AS. Sementara itu harga logam mulia masih cukup tertipang namun belum ada katalis baru yang dapat memacu harga Emas untuk keluar dari range trading nya.

Di sesi sebelumnya, harga Emas tertopang oleh berita bahwa berbagai bank sentral dunia telah membeli Emas lebih banyak dibanding yang mereka jual selama bulan Oktober mengindikasikan laju Permintaan yang kuat dari pasar negara berkembang. Brazil melakukan pembelian masif Emas dibulan lalu, sehingga cadangan emasnya mencapai level tertinggi baru dalam 1 dekade terakhir. Selain itu permintaan Emas China yang meningkat juga secara keseluruhan menopang harga Emas stabil di teritori positif.

Terpantau sejauh in harga spot Emas menguat 0.11% di level $1,730.72, setelah meraih titik tertinggi intraday di $1,732.39 dan level terendah hariannya di $1,728.69.