Kamis, 14 Juni 2012

Fundamental Analysis, June 14th, 2012

Euro advances for 2nd day, but gains seen limited

The euro rose against the dollar and yen for a second straight session on Wednesday as investors continued to pare extremely bearish positions ahead of crucial Greek elections, but concerns about Spanish and Italian debt yields could spur a reversal. 
Investors covered their short positions on the euro ahead of the elections in Greece on Sunday, with the outcome too close to call. Syriza, the leftist party opposed to austerity measures, and the New Democracy group, which backs Greece's international bailout, are locked in a tight race and investors are only too willing to sit on the sidelines and await the results.  
In late afternoon trading the euro <EUR=> last traded up 0.4 percent at $1.2565, its strongest gain in a week. That was well above the near two-year low touched on June 1 at $1.2288, but below a three-week high reached on Monday at $1.2671. 
Traders said if Italian and Spanish bond yields continued to edge toward perceived unsustainable levels of around 7 percent, the euro may well come under more pressure in the near term. 
Italy faces a test on Thursday, when it plans to offer up to 4.5 billion euros ($5.66 billion) of fixed-rate bonds.
The dollar, meanwhile, turned negative against the Japanese yen after the government reported U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in May. Excluding autos, retail sales showed their biggest monthly decline in two years.
The dollar was down 0.1 percent against the yen at 79.45 yen <JPY=>, according to Reuters data.  

Wall St sells off late, succumbs to Europe fears

Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday as fears ahead of the weekend elections in Greece finally drove down a market that had been treading water through most of the day. 
Up to 800 million euros ($1 billion) have been pulled out of Greek banks daily ahead of the cliffhanger election on Sunday, which many fear will result in Greece leaving the euro zone. If that happens, investors fear other peripheral nations may also have to exist.  
The euro zone's cloudy future has made investors inclined to quickly reverse positions. On Wednesday, they pounded shares in financial, energy and materials sectors into the close.  
Volume surged after three weak sessions. About 7.1 billion share trade on the NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq, slightly above the 20-day moving average. 
Also weighing on sentiment, the government reported U.S. retail sales fell in May to their worst level in two years, the latest data to point to sluggish U.S. growth after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report in May sparked widespread fears of a slowdown. The S&P Retail Index <.RLX> lost 1.5 percent. 
Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N> were a standout, rising 1.6 percent as the bank's chief executive, Jamie Dimon, defended the portfolio behind JPMorgan's recent multibillion-dollar trading loss, telling lawmakers it was a genuine hedge that would make the firm a lot of money if a credit crisis hit. 
In the overall market, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 77.42 points, or 0.62 percent, at 12,496.38. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 9.30 points, or 0.70 percent, at 1,314.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 24.46 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,818.61.
Gold rises for 4th day, eyes technical resistance
Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday on safe-haven bids due to uncertainties in Europe ahead of a key election in Greece, but the metal's repeated failures to break above major chart resistance could trigger technical selling. 
Bullion raced toward $1,625 an ounce earlier in the session after weak U.S. retail sales and wholesale prices data raised the prospect of additional monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Concerns about Spanish and Italian debt and jitters over Sunday's Greek election also kept gold prices supported.  
The metal, which has largely moved in sync with risky assets so far this year, later pared gains even though the euro stayed higher. Gold has also repeatedly failed to break above $1,640 for over a month despite several recent rallies.  
Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.5 percent at $1,617.70 an ounce by 2:39 p.m. EDT (1839 GMT), having earlier hit a high of $1,624.36. 
U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled up $5.60 at $1,619.40 an ounce, with trading volume about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

U.S. crude ends lower ahead of OPEC meeting

U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC policy meeting expected to leave the group's production target unchanged, while weak economic data added to the bearish sentiment. 
Saudi Arabia came under pressure from fellow OPEC producers to cut oil output to prevent a further slide in crude prices a day ahead of the group's Thursday policy meeting in Vienna.
After Saudi Arabia initially floated a proposal to lift OPEC's output target, Riyadh quickly dropped the idea and the 12-member producer group looks set to leave its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day.     
U.S. data showed retail sales fell for a second straight month in May and wholesale prices dropped the most in three years. The reports were expected to boost chances of further action by the Federal Reserve to shore up the flagging recovery. 
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude <CLN2> fell 70 cents, or 0.84 percent, to $82.62 a barrel, having traded from $82.15 to $84.01.

Nikkei seen trapped in range, investors eye events on horizon

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to tread in a tight range on Thursday after U.S. stocks stumbled on disappointing retail data and investors remain wary ahead of a Greek election that could alter the fate of the euro zone.   
Investors are also looking towards a two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting that concludes on Friday to see whether the bank expands its easing programme, but many believe the BOJ will hold fire ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.  
Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,530, down 0.7 percent from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 8,590 as U.S. stocks slipped after U.S. retail sales fell to a two-year low in May, the latest indicator of an economic slowdown in the world's biggest economy. 
The Nikkei was driven 0.6 percent higher on Wednesday to 8,587.84 by gains in a few large cap stocks with little overseas exposure as investors played it safe and cut back on
euro-related stocks. 
Euro zone finance ministers agreed to loan Spain 100 billion euros at the weekend to shore up its troubled banks, which briefly cheered global markets before doubts about the details
of the bailout set in.  

Seoul shares seen lower on U.S. data, Greek jitters

Seoul shares are poised to openlower on Thursday, with investors unsettled by more signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy and ahead of this weekend's Greek elections that could decide its fate in the euro zone. 
U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in May and wholesale prices dropped by the most in three years, raising chances of further action by the Federal Reserve to shore up the flagging recovery.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 0.25 percent to close at 1,859.32 points on Wednesday. Thursday is quadruple witching day in Seoul, with stock options and futures as well as index options and future all set to expire, but analysts see only a limited impact as the market has been handling an extended run of settlements since April. 

HK stocks seen drifting lower, Esprit to resume trade

Hong Kong shares are poised to start weaker on Thursday after weak U.S. retail sales data added to concerns over the global economy, giving risk-averse investors little reason to make big bets. Trade in Esprit Holdings Ltd <0330.HK> will resume after the shares were suspended on Wednesday afternoon.  
The Hang Seng index <.HSI> closed up 0.8 percent on Wednesday in light trading, largely on the back of gains in Chinese insurers. The China Enterprises index <.HSCE> of top locally listed mainland firms closed up 1.5 percent. 
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.7 percent and South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> had lost 0.1 percent as of 0045 GMT. 

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 14th , 2012



CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2460-1.2670
Down
1.2670
1.2530

1.2600
1.2460
1.2670
1.2740
1.2460
USD/JPY
78.60-80.40
Up
79.80
78.60
79.20

80.40
78.60
80.40
78.00
GBP/USD
1.5400-1.5610
Down
1.5610
1.5470

1.5540
1.5400
1.5610
1.5680
1.5400
USD/CHF
0.9460-0.9670
Up
0.9600
0.9460
0.9530

0.9670
0.9460
0.9670
0.9390
AUD/USD
0.9830-1.0040
Down
1.0040
0.9900

0.9970
0.9830
1.0040
1.0110
0.9830
NIKKEI
8420-8660
Up
8580
8420
8500

8660
8420
8660
8340
HANGSENG
18700-19060
Up
18940
18700
18820

19060
18700
19060
18580
KOSPI
244.80-248.10
Down
248.10
245.90

247.00
244.80
248.10
249.20
244.80
GOLD
1603.60-1628.30
Up
1620.10
1603.60
1611.80

1628.30
1603.60
1628.30
1595.30