Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

Brent Tops $116 as Gaddafi Bombs Libyan Oil Facilities

Brent crude rose 0.3 percent to surpass $116 on Thursday after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi bombed oil industry infrastructure, inflicting what could be longer-term damage on the country's exporting capacity. 

Gaddafi's forces struck an oil pipeline leading to Es Sider and dropped bombs on storage tanks in the Ras Lanuf oil terminal area in the eastern section of Libya that is rebel-controlled. Rebels said government forces also hit an oil pipeline leading to Sidrah.

"The large explosions and enormous columns of smoke from storage tanks and other facilities in Ras Lanuf, close to the Es Sider terminal, are perhaps more than merely symbolic," Barclays Capital oil analysts headed by Paul Horsnell said. 

"They represent a final fading of any residual realistic hope that the outage of Libyan oil could prove to be anything other than prolonged."
In London, Brent crude for April [LCOCV1  116.31    0.37  (+0.32%)   ] gained 34 cents to $116.28 a barrel after soaring almost $3 on Wednesday, or 2.5 percent, from as low as $112.16. They reached a 2-1/2-year high of $119.79 on Feb. 24.  

Nymex light sweet crude [CLCV1  104.87    0.49  (+0.47%)   ] gained 27 cents to $104.65, after touching a 2-1/2-year peak of almost $107 earlier this week. 
On Wednesday, U.S. crude fell after stockpiles at the pricing point for benchmark West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma, surged 1.7 million barrels to a record of almost 40.3 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 
That caused the discount of WTI to European marker Brent to widen to almost $12 a barrel from about $8 the previous day.  

Total U.S. crude inventories rose 2.5 million barrels last week, the EIA said, dwarfing the forecast for an increase of just 400,000 barrels in a Reuters poll. The weekly inventory data also showed drawdowns for gasoline and distillates were bigger than expected, reflecting improving demand. 
Confirming previous non-Libyan estimates, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp, said that production has been cut to about half a million barrels per day from 1.6 million bpd by the war, as many foreign and local workers have left oil fields.   

Libyan oil trade has been paralyzed as banks decline to clear payments in dollars due to U.S. sanctions, though Austrian energy group OMV said it had been buying small amounts of Libyan crude oil and would continue to do so.  

"It appears that most of Libya's bridges with OECD countries in particular are already aflame or may have already been burned," Barclays Capital said. 
"One can now easily imagine circumstances in which Libya's previously very short-haul exports of crude oil become very long-haul indeed."  

A Libyan insurgent said rebels had retaken the heart of the closest city to the capital from forces loyal to Gaddafi on Wednesday evening in some of the fiercest fighting in almost three weeks of clashes.
Saudi Arabia has increased production to 9 million bpd, almost 1 million bpd above its current OPEC target. The kingdom says it currently holds spare capacity of 3.5 mln bpd.
Still, an OPEC delegate said on Wednesday that the group saw no need for an emergency meeting to discuss raising output

Saudi Shi'ites staged another small protest in the kingdom's Eastern province, defying a ban on demonstrations, but Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said dialogue, not protest, was the best way to bring about change.

Saudi Arabia's ruling family has mobilized the power of its conservative religious establishment to prevent a wave of uprisings against Arab autocrats from roaring into its kingdom, home to more than a fifth of the world's known oil reserves.

The U.S. believes new sanctions should be put on Iran and existing ones more tightly enforced after talks on reining in Tehran's nuclear program failed in January, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.
China is confident that it can hold inflation to an average of 4 percent this year, the government's statistics chief said on Thursday, but a central bank adviser warned that soaring commodity costs were adding to upside risks.

The country reported crude oil imports of 19.95 million tones of crude oil or 5.2 million barrels per day in February, compared with 21.80 million tones in January.

Oil Spike Due to 'Market Pricing in Risk': Exxon CEO

The spike in the price of crude oil has been brought about by the “market pricing in the risk premium on the future oil supply,” rather than a lack of supply currently, said Rex Tillerson, CEO and chairman of Exxon Mobil.

Tillerson, head of the world’s largest publicly-traded oil company [XOM  84.38    -0.22  (-0.26%)], was responding to the view of the Saudi Arabian oil minister. The cost of oil hovered below $105 a barrel.
“The $20 jump we've seen in the last few weeks is really the market pricing in the risk premium, as they [the Saudis] view it, on the future supply of oil,” he told CNBC.
Tillerson added oil is plentiful at this point, but the situation could change if delivery from a major supplier were to be disrupted. 

He said that the disruption from Libya is of minor importance because the country's production accounts for only 1 ½ percent of the global oil supply.
The last time the supply chain was broken in the US was after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when the country’s strategic oil supply, a system in place throughout the world, had to be tapped, because oil tankers could not deliver crude oil to refineries in the gulf coast region.
Because each region in the world maintains strategic oil supplies to use in the event of a physical disruption, Tillerson said, the world is now better prepared for a crisis.

Asian shares fall amid ongoing Libya fighting

Asian shares fell Thursday, weighed down by ongoing fighting in Libya and a lackluster finish by Wall Street.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was off 1.1 percent at 10,473.81, with nearly all sectors in negative territory.

 Toyota Motor Corp. tumbled more than 2 percent, and major bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. fell 1.6 percent.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index retreated 0.4 percent to 23,722.14.
South Korea's Kospi extended losses after the central bank raised its key interest rate for the second time in three months Thursday. The index fell 1.2 percent to 1,978.41 in late morning trading.
Benchmarks in Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and mainland China also lost ground.
Bucking the trend was New Zealand's main stock index, which edged up less than 0.1 percent to 3,414.90 after the country's central bank cut its key interest rate to 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent. It described the decision as a pre-emptive move to soften the economic impact of last month's destructive earthquake in the city of Christchurch.

In New York on Wednesday, stocks slipped as crude oil prices hovered near $104 a barrel, continuing a three-week run of high prices that economists say could slow the economic recovery.
Fighting between rebels and forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi set two oil installations ablaze and inflicted yet more damage on the country's crippled energy industry.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.29, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,213.09.
The broader S&P index lost 1.80 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 1,320.02. The Nasdaq composite fell 14.05, or 0.5 percent, to 2,751.72.
In currencies, the dollar rose to 82.76 yen from 82.70 yen late Wednesday. The euro stood at $1.3916 from $1.3904.
Benchmark crude for April delivery rose 41 cents to $104.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 64 cents to settle at $104.38 a barrel Wednesday.

Aplikasi Kredit Perumahan AS Melonjak

Aplikasi untuk kredit perumahan di AS melonjak ke level tertinggi dalam 3 bulan minggu lalu, terdukung oleh adanya kemajuan pada pasar tenaga kerja, menurut salah satu grup industri hari Rabu. Mortgage Bankers Association mengatakan indeks aktivitas aplikasi kredit perumahan naik 155.5% minggu lalu, dan merupakan level tertinggi sejak minggu yang diakhiri tanggal 10 Desember serta kenaikan terbanyak sejak 11 Juni. Indeks pembiayaan kembali MBA naik 17.2%, sementara ukuran tingkat permintaan pinjaman untuk pembelian rumah naik 12.5%.


“Membaiknya pasar tenaga kerja mulai membuka jalan untuk kemajuan pasar perumahan," menurut pernyataan Michael Fratantoni, wakil presiden riset dan ekonomi MBA. "Dan juga, tingkat suku bunga kredit perumahan ada d ibawah 5% untuk kedua minggunya, mempertahankan daya beli konsumen dan membawa menuju kenaikan jumlah aplikasi." Tingkat suku bunga 30 tahunan kredit perumahan ada pada 4.93% minggu ini, naik dari 4.84% pada minggu sebelumnya.

Gold dan hutang Eropa

Spot emas di $1,429.50/ons, naik 60 sen sejak ditutupnya pasar New York. Emas terus bergerak di rangenya sejak menyentuh level rekor tinggi di $1,445.05 hari Senin. Harga emas lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh masalah di Eropa daripada di Timur Tengah dengan masih adanya kekhawatiran mengenai masalah hutang zona Eropa yang belum terselesaikan menjelang pertemuan para pembuat kebijakan di hari Jumat, menurut Phillip Futures. "Ketidak pastian pasar keuangan menjadi alasan lain emas masih menarik untuk dijadikan sebagai safe haven bagi investor," katanya. Di Eropa, emas belum menunjukkan sinyal penguatan, emas masih stabil di kisaran EUR1,026/ons, dengan pernyataan yang optimis dari pejabat ECB yang memberi jalan keluar bagi permasalahan hutang yang terjadi di Portugal, Yunani, dan Irlandia.

Hangseng Today

Setelah kemarin gagal menembus ke atas level 23880, indeks Hang Seng cenderung bearish dan bergerak waspada seraya investor saat ini tengah menantikan serangkaian paket data ekonomi China.
Sederetan data ekonomi tersebut akan diawali dengan angka neraca perdagangan yang diperkirakan menyusut.
 
Secara teknikal seperti terilhat pada grafik berikut, indeks Hang Seng (HSI) saat ini masih berada dalam fase koreksi bearish setelah kemarin gagal menembus ke atas area 23880. Koreksi akan makin dalam menuju 23680 sebagai support terdekat sebelum menguji area 23435.
 
Sementara dengan Hang Seng yang masih tetap terjaga di dalam bullish trend channel, memiliki resisten terdekat di 23880, break ke atas area ini dapat memicu momentum bullish lanjutan menuju 24000.
 
 
 
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24140
Support Level       : 23680, 23550, 23435
Trading Range       : 23680 – 24070
Trend                      : Bearish

Libya : minyak mahal

Kontrak minyak melambung di perdagangan Asia terkait meningkatnya kekisruhan di Libya, yang menyebabkan hancurnya fasilitas minyak.

Pasukan yang loyal pada Kol. Moammar Gadhafi mengintensifkan serangan pada para pemberontak. Pertikaian terjadi di sebelah barat Tripoli dan menghentikan serangan oposisi di sebelah selatan. Sementara itu, stasiun minyak utama Es Sider terbakar setelah pasukan udara Gadhafi membombardir komplek. Stasiun televisi Libya menyalahkan pasukan pemberontak atas peristiwa itu. Kilang minyak  Ras Lanuf masih utuh namun tetap ditutup terkait adanya usaha untuk mengambil alih Ras Lanuf. Stasiun minyak Zawia dan Es Sider telah ditutup.
Minyak Nymex April menguat 47 sen di $104.85/barrel di Globex. Minyak ICE Brent crude 53 sen lebih tinggi di $116.47/barrel.

Gold: Fokus Liga Arab

Emas bertahan stabil hari Kamis yang berada di bawah rekor tingginya minggu ini dengan investor yang fokus terhadap kenaikan harga minyak yang bergantung pada ketegangan yang terjadi di negara-negara liga Arab, dan kembalinya kekhawatiran hutang Eropa, yang mendukung pesona safe haven emas.
 
Spot emas merosot 59 sen ke $1,428.20 setelah mencapai rekor tingginya di $1,444.40 per ons hari Senin.
Kontrak emas AS untuk April nyaris tidak bergerak dari $1,428.8 per ons. Kontrak komoditi tersebut mencapai rekor tingginya di $1,445.70 per ons hari Senin.
 
Impor komoditi dari Cina, sebagian besar membukukan kenaikan bulan Januari, mungkin menunjukkan pertanda pelemahan di Februari bersama berlanjutnya musim hari libur yang mengganggu proses pengapalan dan tingginya pemangkasan pemesanan.

Rabu, 09 Maret 2011

Gold today

Add caption
Harga emas masih menguji trendline bullish yang terlihat di grafik 4 jam. Bias secara umum masih bullish dan tembusnya resistance di 1432.08 akan memberikan peluang bagi rebound ke arah resistance di 1444.30. Bias berpotensi menjadi bearish jika support di 1418.40 pecah, yang kemungkinan akan diikuti oleh pergerakan menuju support selanjutnya di area 1404.72.

Tangguhnya Ekonomi Perkuat Sterling

-Sterling menguat terhadap euro dan dolar setelah data tunjukkan tangguhnya ekonomi Inggris meski pemerintah laksanakan program pemangkasan defisit anggaran. Defisit perdagangan menyusut menjadi £7,1 M di Januari, lebih baik dari estimasi £8,5 M dan revisi publikasi sebelumnya £9,7 M. Ekspor meningkat 5,4% sedangkan impor turun 4%.


Laporan KPMG tunjukkan meningkatnya indeks perekrutan tenaga kerja menjadi 62,7 dari 58,2 pada Januari, tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Harga retailer catatkan kenaikan tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir. Indeks harga jual, yang dirilis Konsorsium Retailer Inggris, naik 2,7% di Februari, lebih tinggi dari rilis sebelumnya 2,5%.
 
Membaiknya indikator ekonomi tentu akan berikan BoE lebih banyak ruang untuk kendalikan inflasi yang kini mencapai 4%, 2x lipat target bank sentral. BoE besok akan umumkan hasil pertemuan kebijakan moneternya. Meski BoE diprediksi kembali tahan suku bunga dan program pembelian obligasi, pasar telah antisipasi kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juni.

Pasar Eropa Mixed Ditengah Kembalinya Kekhawatiran Hutang

Pasar Eropa terus bergerak mixed di sekitar level pembukaan pada perdagangan hari Rabu, dengan risk appetite membebani yang dipicu  oleh kemunculan kembali kekhawatiran atas masalah hutang zona Euro setelah Moody's memangkas peringkat kredit pemerintah Yunani.
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 tergelincir 0,1%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman justru menguat 0,29% dan indeks CAC Perancis kehilangan sekitar 0,1%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE bergerak 0,4% lebih rendah dalam waktu kurang dari 2 jam setelah bel pembukaan.
 
Downgrade Moody's terhadap peringkat obligasi pemerintah Yunani pada hari Senin telah memunculkan kembali kekhawatiran atas nasib anggota Uni Eropa lainnya. Di sisi lain, penurunan harga minyak untuk hari kedua berturut-turut akibat spekulasi tentang pemimpin Libya Gadaffi yang angkat kaki dari negara itu telah meningkatkan harapan berakhirnya konflik di salah satu produsen minyak mentah utama tersebut.

CEO BP: Maafkan Kelalaian Kami

Untuk kali pertama sejak kasus Teluk Meksiko, CEO British Petroleum (BP), Bob Dudley, tampil di hadapan kolega dan rekan satu industri. Pada event bertajuk Konferensi Tahunan IHS Cera, Dudley mengutarakan permohonan maaf atas kelalaian perusahaannya atas kejadian tersebut.

"Sejak insiden itu, inilah kali pertama Saya hadir di hadapan Anda. Maka dari itu, Saya mengucapkan maaf atas semua yang terjadi," tutur Dudley. Sang CEO baru saja menjabat sebagai kepala perusahaan menggantikan Tony Hayward. Ia bertekad menggenjot performa karyawan serta rutin meng-evaluasi standar keamanan di lapangan. Isu ini sekarang menjadi fokus utama BP supaya kesalahan serupa tidak berulang. Dalam sisi operasional, staf tambang harus memastikan semua perangkat sudah bekerja normal sebelum proses pengeboran terlaksana. "BP meminta maaf. BP menuai akibatnya. BP kini berubah," tutup Dudley.

Sementara itu dalam menyikapi krisis Timur Tengah, Ia menyerukan industri untuk mengambil langkah aktif. Middle east dan Afrika Utara menyumbang 30 juta barel minyak per hari (sepertiga suplai dunia). Untuk mengantisipasi guncangan, industri energi disarankan berkoordinasi lebih intensif melalui pertemuan seperti ini.

Listing Saham China di Wall St. Lesatkan HSI

Indeks bursa Hang Seng (HSI) kembali melanjutkan rebound-nya setelah dibuka dengan gap-up menyusul rally tajam saham-saham asal China yang tercatat di Wall Street.
Sementara sektor perbankan diperkirakan menguat setelah bank sentral China menarik kembali sanksi giro wajib minimum bagi sejumlah institusi.
 
Indeks diperkirakan terus melesat jauh dari psikologis 23000 dan dikhawatirkan dapat menghampiri level 24000. Namun patut diwaspadai karena harga di area ini sudah cukup jenuh/overbought sehingga rentan terhadap koreksi dan profit taking.
 
Maka bila Hang Seng mengalami koreksi, level support terdekat berada di area 23750 hingga di 23600.

emas stabil

Emas bertahan stabil hari Rabu setelah perdagangan yang penuh gejolak di sesi sebelumnya. Aksi bargain-hunting dari para pedagang dan kekerasan di Libya memicu tekanan terhadap harga minyak dan pemulihan bursa saham.
Spot emas nyaris tidak berubah di level $1,427.80 per ons, keluar dari rekor tingginya di $1,444.40 per ons yang terjadi hari Senin.
Kontrak emas AS untuk bulan April naik $1.3 per ons ke $1,428.50 per ons. Emas mencapai rekor tingginya di level $1,445.70 hari Senin.

Hangseng Today

Secara teknikal indikator MACD dan channel bullish pada grafik berikut mengindikasikan bias bullish untuk jangka menengah menuju 23880 sebagai target selanjutnya. Break level ini akan melanjutkan tren bullish menuju 24000.
 
Sementara indikator stochastic mengindikasikan koreksi bearish untuk jangka pendek kembali ke support pertama di 23750 sebelum menuju area 23600.


 
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24220
Support Level       : 23750, 23600, 23435
Trading Range       : 23600 – 23880
Trend                      : Bullish

Waspada koreksi Hangseng

Secara teknikal indeks Hang Seng diperkirakan terus melesat jauh dari psikologis 23000 bahkan dikhawatirkan dapat menghampiri level 24000.
Namun patut diwaspadai karena harga di area ini sudah cukup jenuh/overbought sehingga rentan terhadap koreksi dan profit taking. Maka bila Hang Seng mengalami koreksi, level support terdekat berada di area 23750 hingga di 23600.     
Dari grafik berikut terlihat indikator MACD dan channel bullish telah mengindikasikan bias bullish untuk jangka menengah menuju 23880 sebagai target selanjutnya. Break level ini akan melanjutkan tren bullish menuju 24000.
Sementara indikator stochastic mengindikasikan koreksi bearish untuk jangka pendek kembali ke support pertama di 23750 sebelum menuju area 23600.
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24220
Support Level       : 23750, 23600, 23435
Trading Range       : 23600 – 23880
Trend                      : Bullish

Perburuan Safe Haven

Emas masih bergerak dalam range yang relatif sempit hingga memasuki sesi Eropa hari Selasa. Meskipun menjauh dari rekor tertinggi, Emas masih mendapatkan dukungan dari kekhawatiran geopolitik dan ekonomi makro.


Saat ini Emas ditawarkan pada kisaran $1434.95/1435.75 per ons, dan tengah berada tidak jauh dari level tinggi harian. Emas berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi baru di $1444.30 pada hari kemarin, sebelum tergerus oleh aksi profit taking dan pemulihan Greenback.
 
Berdasarkan grafik, support terdekat berada pada MA 7-hari di $1425, yang diikuti oleh $1420 dan $1410. Sebaliknya, resistensi dapat ditemukan di $1444, kemudian $1445 dan $1450.
 
"Emas dan perak akan diuntungkan beberapa konsolidasi," kata analis William Adams dari FastMarkets. "Tapi meningkatnya kepemilikan pada SPDR menunjukkan keduanya masih akan tetap didukung campuran antara safe haven dan lindung nilai inflasi."

Profit-Taking Warnai Emas

Emas tergelincir, tertekan aksi profit-taking setelah reli kencang akibat meningkatnya gejolak Libya dan ancaman inflasi. "Aksi jual yang terjadi cukup sahat, ini mungkinkan pasar untuk rehat sejenak," papar Chae Un Soo, trader KEB Futures. "Ada minat beli emas yang besar, kecuali situasi Timur Tengah membaik."

Pemberontak kini menyusuri daerah pantai mendekati Tripoli; dimana pasukan setia Qaddafi tengah berusaha pertahankan ibukota Libya tersebut. Salah satu putra Muammar Gaddafi, Saadi, utarakan ayahnya belum kerahkan semua pasukan untuk hadapi pemberontak, demi lindungi Libya dari serangan asing. Dua surat kabar Arab dan televisi Al Jazeera beritakan Gaddafi sedang mencari kesepakatan untuk mundur; tapi pemberontak tidak percaya dengan janji Qaddafi. PBB perkirakan 1.000 orang telah tewas sejak meletusnya pemberontakan di Libya.

Melejitnya harga makanan dan komoditas telah picu kerusuhan di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Demonstran berhasil gulingkan pimpinan di Tunisia dan Mesir dan protes kini terlihat di Iran, Yaman, Qatar, dan Oman. Di Arab Saudi, website telah serukan demonstrasi pada tanggal 11 dan 20 Maret.

Bank Of America CEO Says No More Acquisitions

executives are in the spotlight today as they present their overall growth and profitability strategies to investors.


BofA’s investor day is particularly important because it’s the nation’s largest bank and faces some of the biggest challenges in the industry compared to some of its rivals. Today’s discussion gives the bank’s executives a chance to address the state of the bank’s most troubling issues like its legal battles regarding mortgage-backed securities and foreclosure problems.
Moynihan spoke to some of those problem in his opening remarks this morning and was blunt about the bank’s future challenges
.
One of its biggest challenges will be grappling with costs related to its home lending unit. Moynihan called the unit the bank’s biggest legacy issue, and says the bank is “still eating large costs” because of it. He added that the bank could have relatively high expenses for the next two years as deals with mortgage-related expenses.
Of course, Moynihan is referring to BofA’s 2008 acquisition of the mortgage lender Countrywide—possibly the worst acquisition in the bank’s recent history. The deal has been a never-ending nightmare for the bank as its faced growing foreclosure problems and legal battles stemming from the Countrywide unit.
In 2010, Bank of America posted a $2.2 billion net loss last year, driven by writedowns on home-lending and credit-card units.
That’s why Moynihan promised investors this morning a “new era” at the bank—one that avoids any major acquisitions.

That’s probably a good idea considering Moynihan does not expect a boost in the bank’s overall assets for the next five years. Bank of America’s assets averaged $2.44 trillion in 2010, ending the year at $2.26 trillion.
So what’s Moynihan’s plan? Well, pretty much what any struggling business might do—cut costs.
Moynihan said the bank’s expenses relative to operating revenue is too high at was 62 % in 2010. He hopes to bring that number down to 55% or “as low as it can go” without hurting the bank’s operations. Before the financial crisis, that ratio hovered around 50%.
Still, Moynihan expects the bank’s  earnings to return to more normal levels in 2012 and 2013, with pretax income around $35 billion to $40 billion.
Bank of America’s shares are up 3% this morning.

Kecemasan Suplai Meredup, Minyak Surut

Minyak melemah akibat ekspektasi redanya kerusuhan Libya sehingga dapat perlancar aliran suplai minyak dari Timur Tengah. Al-Jazeera laporkan pimpinan Libya Muammar Qaddafi menawarkan untuk lepaskan kekuasaan jika dipastikan keselamatannya, namun pemberontak masih menolak tawaran Qaddafi.

Anggota OPEC dan non-OPEC telah tutupi kekurangan pasokan minyak dari Libya, ungkap Mentri Perminyakan Qatar, Mohammed Saleh al Sada. Kerusuhan telah kurangi produksi minyak Libya sebanyak 1 juta barel per hari, menurut Badan Energi Internasional. Libya pompa 1,59 juta barel minyak per hari di Januari.

OPEC tengah pertimbangkan kenaikan output minyak namun belum ambil keputusan, ungkap Mentri Perminyakan Kuwait Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah. Ketika ditanya apakah Kuwait telah tingkatkan produksi, Al-Sabah katakan, "Kami tidak tingkatkan produksi, masih tetap penuhi kuota." Namun, Al-Sabah yakin Arab Saudi telah tingkatkan produksi untuk tutupi kekurangan pasokan dari Libya

How Twitter Is Transforming Trading in Commodities

Passing through Giltner, Neb. early last August, farmer Mike Haley used his Twitter account to post a message, or tweet, about a particularly robust corn crop.




“If I was @zjhunn or @cornfedfarmer I would be smiling, best corn iv seen is their area!”
What may have seemed like a passing compliment turned into a $200,000 profit. 

The harvest belonged to brothers Zach and Brandon Hunnicutt—known on Twitter as “zjhunn” and “cornfedfarmer” respectively—fifth-generation south central Nebraska farmers who raise corn, soybeans, and popcorn on their 3,500 acres they share with their father and neighbor.
To Zach Hunnicutt, Haley’s tweet was a revelation. “We knew by that point that we weren’t going to have as high yield as we hoped for,” he said in a recent interview. “We knew that if ours might be the best out there,” he added, “that gave us the confidence to maybe hold out a little bit—for prices to go higher.”
Trading on Twitter - A CNBC ReportCNBC Trading on Twitter - See Complete Coverage
Corn prices, in fact, spiked nearly 50 percent between Haley’s tweet and the end of the year. By the time the Hunnicutts sold their corn in December, they were able to lock in an additional $1 per bushel, Zach Hunnicutt estimates—generating another 20 percent, or $200,000 or so, in profits. And about half of last year’s corn harvest is still in storage.

The back-and-forth between the Hunnicutts and Haley, a grain and cattle farmer in West Salem, Ohio, is part and parcel of the way in which Twitter is revolutionizing agriculture markets in the U.S.
Once a convenient outlet for boredom on the tractor, tweeting with fellow farmers has become a way for the participants in a far-flung and isolating business to compare notes on everything from weather conditions to new fertilizers. And now, commodities brokers and traders are paying close attention.
“A lot of time farmers are talking to other farmers and I’m sitting there listening,” says Thomas Elwood, aka @cornbroker, who trades corn and other grains on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “Twitter is kind of like a big coffee house,” he said.

To grains traders looking for any kind of edge in the markets, Twitter has become a game-changer. Whereas agricultural brokers and traders once spent hours conducting telephone surveys with farmers or embarking on so-called windshield surveys, in which they drove down Interstate 80 during harvest season to eyeball crops, they can now gather real-time updates on planting intentions and yields on Twitter. 

About a year and a half ago, Tom Grisafi, who trades commodities from his basement office, put up a screen dedicated solely to Twitter feeds in his Valparaiso, Indiana home—right next to the more traditional screens showing corn and other grain prices. Six months later, he asked an analyst to monitor it regularly.
Grisafi, known as @IndianaGrainCo on Twitter, says he tweets with at least 15 farmers on a regular basis to check on crop conditions. “They’re really good about getting back to me on how much rainfall they received, what crops they’re planting, how the weather is,” he said.
Given that weather can vary dramatically across a given region, he says Twitter is particularly helpful in discerning where, for instance, a rainfall has been hardest.

Launched in 2006, the closely-held Twitter now boasts more than 200 million accounts and typically posts more than 130 million unique messages per day. The company’s of-the-moment tweets are now being used to track a multitude of trends, from potential box-office results to flu outbreaks.
But Twitter spokesman Matt Graves said the commodities market chatter and other projects aren’t the company’s focus. “We’re aware of that stuff,” he said in a phone conversation, “but we’re just about providing a platform where people can connect.”

Bank of America Profit Forecast Boosts Stock, Market

"We are still eating large costs," Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said on Tuesday at the bank's first investor day since 2007. could have high expenses for the next two years as it wrestles with mortgage losses, but longer term it hopes for pretax profit of some $40 billion annually, its chief executive said.


The profit forecast was higher than some investors had expected, and Bank of America's [BAC  14.64    0.61  (+4.35%)   ] shares rose 3.9 percent to $14.58 in morning trading.
The bank lost more than $1.3 billion before taxes in 2010 and is still suffering from losses on mortgages made during the height of the mortgage boom.
"We are still eating large costs," Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said on Tuesday at the bank's first investor day since 2007.
But in a few years, those costs will fade, and the bank should be able to make $35 billion to $40 billion of pretax profit a year, he said.
Moynihan's comments show how hard it will be for the largest U.S. bank to improve its performance over the next few years. A standard lever for improving profitability — cutting costs — will be difficult.
The bank does not expect to boost its assets in the next five years, Moynihan said. Asset growth is another way that banks boost profits.
Moynihan said he is not interested in major acquisitions. Bank of America was built through a series of acquisitions over decades. In 2008, then CEO Kenneth Lewis acquired Countrywide Financial, boosting the bank's mortgage assets just as the financial crisis was intensifying.
Moynihan, 51, took over as CEO from Lewis in January 2010 and is trying to restore the bank to consistent profitability.
Formula for Profitability?
Moynihan is pushing employees to sell more products to the bank's existing customers. The bank also hopes to grow by offering more services to customers outside the United States. 

Bank of America reiterated plans to raise its dividend in the second half of 2011 pending regulatory approval, which also cheered investors. "No acquisitions, a dividend increase, cost reductions — sounds like a formula for a more profitable bank," said Marshall Front, chairman and chief investment officer at Front Barnett Associates in Chicago. Front Barnett owns Bank of America shares.
Moynihan spoke to an audience of about 300 investors and analysts in the Plaza Hotel ballroom. Applause was muted when he took stage and when he exited.

Bank of America's assets averaged $2.44 trillion in 2010, ending the year at $2.26 trillion.
Moynihan said the bank's efficiency ratio — expenses relative to operating revenue — is too high. It was 62 percent in 2010. Long term, he hopes to get it down to 55 percent or lower. From 2004 through 2007, Bank of America's efficiency ratio averaged closer to 50 percent.
Moynihan said he hopes to drive the ratio "as low as it can go" before it impacts how the business is run.

Mulally and Bill Ford Collect $100 Million Pay Package

As I walked to catch my train this morning I heard the first comment: "$100 million for the guys running Ford [F  14.4885    0.4785  (+3.42%)   ]? Are you kidding me?"
Alan Mullaly


I wasn't surprised to hear it since the people who see me on the way to the office often have a comment on what's happening in the auto industry.
And I figured someone would have a thought or two to share about the pay package just announced for Ford Chairman Bill Ford and CEO Alan Mulally.
Officially, the Ford board awarded Mulally $56 million (before taxes) in Ford shares and Bill Ford $42.4 million (before taxes) in Ford shares.
Together, it is one of the richest pay packages ever given top executives in the auto industry.
Too much?
Depends on who you ask. If you ask Ford workers who have seen Mulally steer Ford back from the brink of bankruptcy, they probably won't grouse too much. Nor will we hear much from many Ford investors who have seen Ford shares go from $1.56 to more than $14 a share. Ford dealers? I doubt it. Their dealerships are raking in cash with one of the strongest line-ups around. 

So who will blast the Ford board for rewarding Mulally and Ford with tens of millions? Mainly the average American who doesn't follow the company closely. Most will not realize that Bill Ford deferred compensation when the company was losing money. Nor will many of the Ford critics ask themselves this question: where would Ford be if Alan Mulally were never picked to run the company?
Would Ford have survived the auto meltdown? 

Would it have climbed back into second place in the U.S. Auto market?
Would Ford have a line-up of cars that is no longer a punch line for the poor souls driving one?
We'll never know. But consider this. Almost every time a company sacks its CEO and starts looking for a new man to run the company, you hear the same thing, "We need to hire an 'Alan Mulally type' who will take us to the top." And for many fortune 500 companies, they would gladly pay $40 or $50 million if they knew the company would rebound as Ford has under Mulally.

Libya Rebel Gives Gaddafi 72 Hours to Quit

Muammar GaddafiRebels will not pursue Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over crimes they say he has committed if he steps down from his post in the next 72 hours, the head of the rebel National Libyan Council said on Tuesday.

"If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes," Mustafa Abdel Jalil, an ex-justice minister, told Al Jazeera television by telephone. He said the deadline would not be extended beyond 72 hours.
The council is based in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi.
Earlier Tuesday, a rebel spokesman said a representative of Muammar Gaddafi offered talks on the Libyan leader's exit but that the council rejected any negotiations with a leader they do not trust.
"I confirm that we received contact from a Gaddafi representative seeking to negotiate Gaddafi's exit. We rejected this. We are not negotiating with someone who spilled Libyan blood and continues to do so. Why would we trust the guy today?" a media officer for the council, Mustafa Gheriani, told Reuters.
The Libyan government has denied holding talks with rebels, Al Arabiya television reported later. Al Arabiya did not give details or a source of its initial report.
But it then quoted a Libyan Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying the accusations of the Libyan National Council, an interim body set up by rebels, did not deserve a response.
Meanwhile, government forces attacked rebels with rockets, tanks and warplanes on western and eastern fronts, intensifying their offensive to crush the revolt against Gaddafi. 

Rising casualties and the threats of hunger and a refugee crisis increased pressure on foreign governments to act, but they struggled to agree a strategy for dealing with the turmoil, many fearful of moving from sanctions alone to military action.
In besieged Zawiyah, the closest rebel-held city to Tripoli, trapped residents cowered from the onslaught on Tuesday. 

"Fighting is still going on now. Gaddafi's forces are using tanks. There are also sporadic air strikes ... they could not reach the center of the town which is still in the control of the revolutionaries," a resident called Ibrahim said by phone.
In the east, much of which is under rebel control, warplanes bombed rebel positions around the oil port of Ras Lanuf.
Rebel euphoria seemed to have dimmed. "People are dying out there. Gaddafi's forces have rockets and tanks," Abdel Salem Mohamed, 21, told Reuters near Ras Lanuf. "You see this? This is no good," he said of his light machinegun.
Britain and France led a drive at the United Nations for a no-fly zone over Libya which would prevent Gaddafi from unleashing air raids or from flying in reinforcements. The Arab League and several Gulf states have also called for such a step.
"It is unacceptable that Colonel Gaddafi unleashes so much violence on his own people and we are all gravely concerned about what would happen if he were to try to do that on an even greater basis," British Foreign Secretary William Hague said.
Russia and China, who have veto power in the U.N. Security Council, are cool towards the idea of a no-fly zone.
The U.S. government, whose interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan enraged many of the world's Muslims, said it was weighing up military options and that action should be taken only with international backing.

Bank of America Profit Forecast Boosts Stock, Market

"We are still eating large costs," Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said on Tuesday at the bank's first investor day since 2007. could have high expenses for the next two years as it wrestles with mortgage losses, but longer term it hopes for pretax profit of some $40 billion annually, its chief executive said.

The profit forecast was higher than some investors had expected, and Bank of America's [BAC  14.63    0.60  (+4.28%)   ] shares rose 3.9 percent to $14.58 in morning trading.
The bank lost more than $1.3 billion before taxes in 2010 and is still suffering from losses on mortgages made during the height of the mortgage boom.
"We are still eating large costs," Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said on Tuesday at the bank's first investor day since 2007.
But in a few years, those costs will fade, and the bank should be able to make $35 billion to $40 billion of pretax profit a year, he said.
Moynihan's comments show how hard it will be for the largest U.S. bank to improve its performance over the next few years. A standard lever for improving profitability — cutting costs — will be difficult.
The bank does not expect to boost its assets in the next five years, Moynihan said. Asset growth is another way that banks boost profits.
Moynihan said he is not interested in major acquisitions. Bank of America was built through a series of acquisitions over decades. In 2008, then CEO Kenneth Lewis acquired Countrywide Financial, boosting the bank's mortgage assets just as the financial crisis was intensifying.
Moynihan, 51, took over as CEO from Lewis in January 2010 and is trying to restore the bank to consistent profitability.
Formula for Profitability?
Moynihan is pushing employees to sell more products to the bank's existing customers. The bank also hopes to grow by offering more services to customers outside the United States. 

Bank of America reiterated plans to raise its dividend in the second half of 2011 pending regulatory approval, which also cheered investors. "No acquisitions, a dividend increase, cost reductions — sounds like a formula for a more profitable bank," said Marshall Front, chairman and chief investment officer at Front Barnett Associates in Chicago. Front Barnett owns Bank of America shares.
Moynihan spoke to an audience of about 300 investors and analysts in the Plaza Hotel ballroom. Applause was muted when he took stage and when he exited. 

Bank of America's assets averaged $2.44 trillion in 2010, ending the year at $2.26 trillion.
Moynihan said the bank's efficiency ratio — expenses relative to operating revenue — is too high. It was 62 percent in 2010. Long term, he hopes to get it down to 55 percent or lower. From 2004 through 2007, Bank of America's efficiency ratio averaged closer to 50 percent.
Moynihan said he hopes to drive the ratio "as low as it can go" before it impacts how the business is run.

Ratkyat ingin presiden mundur: yaman

Demonstran kembali serukan berakhirnya pemerintahan Presiden Ali Abdullah Saleh yang telah berkuasa 32 tahun. 10.000 demonstran berunjuk rasa di Dhamar. kota yang dahulu loyal mendukung Saleh dan juga kota kelahiran Perdana Menteri, Menteri Dalam Negeri, dan Pimpinan Mahkamah Agung.
"Pergi! Pergi!" teriak demonstran, hanya dua hari setelah pendukung Saleh gelar unjuk rasa untuk mendukung pemerintah yang berkuasa kini. Protes telah meraja lela di Semenanjung Arab, dan sebagian pendukung Saleh dan pimpinan suku setempat juga membelot; ini semakin menambahkan tekanan bagi Saleh untuk mundur, tapi Presiden Yaman tetap teguh akan pertahankan kekuasaan hingga akhir masa jabatan pada tahun 2013.
Pengunjuk rasa di Dhamar melempari kantor pemerintahan dengan batu dan kini bersikeras tidak akan bubar hingga Saleh jatuh. Di ibukota Yaman, Sanaa, ribuan pengunjuk rasa telah berkemah selama berminggu-minggu; kendaraan militer dengan tentara bersenjata tersebar di jalan-jalan setelah aktivis serukan gerakan dekati istana presiden.

Pesanan Manufaktur Jerman Naik

Pesanan manufaktur Jerman meningkat 2,9% di Januari, lebih tinggi dari prediksi penurunan 2,5% dan publikasi sebelumnya minus 3,6%. Ini merupakan sinya tambahan betapa tangguhnya ekonomi Jerman meskipun kawasan Eropa sedang dilanda krisis utang. Kenaikan Januari dipimpin oleh pengingkatan pesanan domestik sebanyak 4,5%, dan pesanan asing 1,6%. Pesanan dari zona-euro juga naik 2,3%, tanda berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi regional. Euro berusaha redam penurunan setelah data dirilis.

“Ada permintaan domestik yang kuat, terutama untuk barang intermedier. Tingginya pesanan berarti akan lebih bagusnya performa industri dalam beberapa bulan mendatang,” ungkap kementerian ekonomi yang merilis data. "Meskipun terlihat fluktuasi data dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, tren pesanan manufaktur masih naik."

Weber: Pemulihan Jerman Terus Berlanjut

Presiden Bundesbank Axel Weber mengatakan pemulihan “kuat” ekonomi Jerman masih akan berlanjut tahun ini seiring meningkatnya investasi perusahaan guna memenuhi permintaan ekspor, ditambah turunnya tingkat pengangguran yang akan mendorong belanja konsumen.
"Siklus pemulihan yang kuat masih akan terus berlanjut pada 2011, meskipun pada kecepatan yang sedikit lebih lambat," kata Weber dalam sebuah pernyataan hari ini. Kebutuhan perusahaan atas mesin dan peralatan meningkatkan lebih lanjut, meskipun tingkat inflasi juga menjadi lebih cepat. "Konsumsi sektor swasta juga diperkirakan meningkat di tengah perkembangan positif pasar tenaga kerja," kata Weber.
 
Weber menunjuk data bulan lalu dimana Bundesbank telah menaikkan target pertumbuhan 2011 menjadi 2,5% dari sebelumnya 2%. Perekonomian terbesar di Eropa tersebut juga berekspansi pada level rekor 3,6% sepanjang tahun 2010. Kepercayaan bisnis Jerman melonjak ke rekor tertinggi pada bulan lalu dan tingkat pengangguran turun ke level terendah dalam hampir 2 dekade.
 
"Tingkat kepercayaan yang sangat tinggi dari sebagian perusahaan-perusahaan terhadap masa depan mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kekuatan domestik akan memainkan peran yang lebih besar," tambahnya.

Pemerintah Perancis Tidak Ubah Proyeksi GDP

Bank sentral Perancis hari Selasa menahan forecast pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 0,8% untuk kuartal I 2011. Level tersebut merupakan yang tertinggi sejak Perancis kelluar dari tekanan resesi awal 2009.

Perekonomian Perancis berkembang 1,5% pada 2010 lalu. Rasio ini kurang dari separuh GDP yang dibukukan oleh Jerman pada periode yang sama. Secara tahunan, pemerintah memproyeksikan laju pertumbuhan 2011 sebesar 2.0%.

OPEC Desak Kenaikan Produksi

Para anggota OPEC yang berpengaruh di organisasi tersebut, bersama Arab Saudi, bergerak untuk menaikkan produksi guna meredam lonjakan harga dan meredakan menipisnya persediaan di negara-negara barat.
Pergerakan dibalik layar yang digawangi oleh negara-negara Liga Arab dan Nigeria menggambarkan tumbuhnya ketidaknyamanan para anggota OPEC terhadap ancaman pemulihan ekonomi global dari kenaikan harga minyak mentah ditengah memburuknya ketegangan di Libya.
Harga minyak mentah naik ke level tertingginya sejak September 2008 hari Senin (kemarin), diperdagangan di level tinggi hariannya di $106.95 per barel.

Inggris, Perancis Ingin Zona Larangan Terbang di Libya

Inggris dan Prancis lakukan lobi di PBB untuk tetapkan zona larangan terbang di Libya setelah pesawat tempur Muammar Gaddafi serang pemberontak. Utusan PBB katakan satu juta orang butuhkan bantuan segera. Warga sipil dikelilingi pasukan yang setia kepada Gaddafi di dua kota, Misrata dan Zawiyah; di wilayah timur, pesawat serang fasilitas minyak yang dikuasai pemberontak Ras Lanuf. Televisi Al Jazeera laporkan pemberontak menolak tawaran Gaddafi untuk negosiasi kesepakatan sebelum mengundurkan diri sebagai pimpinan Libya.

Menteri Luar Negeri Inggris William Hague katakan terus bekerja erat dengan mitranya untuk sepakati resolusi zona larangan terbang; indikasi adanya dukungan regional terhadap pemberontak. Nara sumber Reuters juga beritahukan Perancis tengah bekerja sama dengan mitranya untuk ajukan zona larangan terbang. Negara di Teluk telah serukan zona larangan terbang dan desak dilangsungkannya pertemuan Liga Arab.

Sementara itu, minyak kembali coba dekati level tinggi 2 ½ tahun seiring investor cemaskan berlarutnya peperangan saudara di Libya. Jika zona larangan terbang diberlakukan maka negara anggota PBB akan mulai serangan udara untuk membantu pemberontak di Libya. Di lain pihak, Qaddafi belum kerahkan seluruh pasukan demi bersiap hadapi invasi asing, menurut pernyataan Saadi, anak Muammar Qaddafi

Gold today

Meskipun harga emas terkoreksi ke area trendline 4 jam, trend mayor yang masih naik dan stochastic serta CCI 4 jam mengarah ke area jenuh jual masih membuka peluang rebound mengikuti trend yang ada. Penembusan di atas resistance 1432.08 akan memicu momentum bullish yang akan mendorong harga menuju area 1444.30.

Stress Test Tidak Hasilkan Apapun?

Stress test yang dilakukan Uni Eropa (EU) terhadap institusi perbankan menuai kritikan dari berbagai pihak. Hans-Werner Sinn, kepala sebuah perusahaan riset finansial Jerman, menilai pengujian ini sia-sia dan tidak akan mampu membuka komponen pinjaman bank yang rentan default.

"Hasil tes yang akurat bisa memperlihatkan ketidakmampuan bank dalam mengelola beban hutang dalam jumlah besar," tutur Kepala IFO Munich tersebut. Hal ini terjadi karena EU hanya mensyaratkan perbankan untuk membuka nilai nominal instrumen hutangnya, bukan nilai pasar yang lebih rendah. Termasuk di dalamnya adalah obligasi pemerintah Yunani yang sedang diperdagangkan 70% lebih rendah dari nilai nominalnya. "Stress test yang baru akan sama buruknya dengan pengujian terdahulu," tegasnya.

Uji perbankan bertujuan untuk mengukur daya tahan bank-bank di EU untuk bertahan jika resesi ekonomi kembali menerjang kawasan. Pihak pelaksana, European Banking Authority, sedang mempersiapkan rangkaian tes tersebut. Hans-Werner Sinn menyerukan para pemerintah untuk menaikkan rasio ekuitas setidaknya menjadi 8% agar sistem finansial bisa lebih kebal guncangan.

Tahun lalu, hanya 7  dari 91 bank dinyatakan gagal menempuh pengujian ini. Bank dari Irlandia bahkan dinyatakan lulus, padahal beberapa bulan kemudian pemerintah memasukkan bank tersebut dalam daftar bail out internasional.

Demonstran Ingin Presiden Yaman Mundur

Demonstran kembali serukan berakhirnya pemerintahan Presiden Ali Abdullah Saleh yang telah berkuasa 32 tahun. 10.000 demonstran berunjuk rasa di Dhamar. kota yang dahulu loyal mendukung Saleh dan juga kota kelahiran Perdana Menteri, Menteri Dalam Negeri, dan Pimpinan Mahkamah Agung.
"Pergi! Pergi!" teriak demonstran, hanya dua hari setelah pendukung Saleh gelar unjuk rasa untuk mendukung pemerintah yang berkuasa kini. Protes telah meraja lela di Semenanjung Arab, dan sebagian pendukung Saleh dan pimpinan suku setempat juga membelot; ini semakin menambahkan tekanan bagi Saleh untuk mundur, tapi Presiden Yaman tetap teguh akan pertahankan kekuasaan hingga akhir masa jabatan pada tahun 2013.
Pengunjuk rasa di Dhamar melempari kantor pemerintahan dengan batu dan kini bersikeras tidak akan bubar hingga Saleh jatuh. Di ibukota Yaman, Sanaa, ribuan pengunjuk rasa telah berkemah selama berminggu-minggu; kendaraan militer dengan tentara bersenjata tersebar di jalan-jalan setelah aktivis serukan gerakan dekati istana presiden.

Selasa, 08 Maret 2011

Ketakutan Hutang Kembali Hantui Euro

Mata uang Euro anjlok akibat ketegangan lama tentang krisis hutang sovereign Eropa kini menghantui sentimen pasar. Selama berminggu-minggu, mata uang Euro telah menantang gravitasi kecemasan seputar tekanan financial utang pada negara anggota Uni Eropa seperti Yunani, Irlandia dan Portugal.
 
Bahkan saat tampak sinyalemen negatif dari para pelaku pasar obligasi serta pasar credit default, namun mata uang Euro tidak menggubrisnya dan malah meroket ke titik tertingginya sejak awal November, hingga diatas $1.40.
 
Selama beberapa hari terakhir, mata uang ini telah dihantam lagi oleh berita downgrade peringkat utang Yunani. Sementara itu, perbedaan yield antara obligasi pemerintah Yunani dan Jerman semakin melembar, seperti juga halnya dengan Portugal. Kekhawatiran yang semakin menumpuk bahwa negara-negara tersebut mungkin terpaksa menstrukturisasi utang mereka, atau mengalami default, akibatnya ekspektasi kenaikan bunga yang dipicu oleh Trichet minggu lalu kini mulai memudar.
 
Kecemasan atas masalah utang Eropa, belum sepenuhnya hilang dari benak para pelaku pasar, dan hingga kini masih berpotensi menyeret mata uang Euro terkoreksi turun lagi.
Terpantau Euro telah anjlok sejauh ini ke level $1.3861 terhadap dollar AS, mata uang ini melorot setelah komentara dua pejabat senior zona Eropa ke media Dow Jones Newswires bahwa harapan pasar sebelumnya akan disetujuinya dana bailout yang lebih fleksibel dan solid dari para pemimpin Eropa untuk menyelesaikan krissi utang di benua itu ternyata tidak mungkin dipenuhi.
 
Di satu sisi Dollar ditopang oleh pelemahan harga minyak, setelah ada rumor positif dari Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Namun kebijakan moneter AS yang masih bersifat longgar pada dasarnya masih menjadi alasan kuat bagi para investor untuk enggan memegang dollar AS.

Saham AS Berjangka Menguat Seiring Dengan Koreksi Minyak

Saham AS berjangka mengindikasikan pembukaan yang cukup solid di bursa Wall Street hari Selasa, bersamaan dengan menurunnya harga minyak ditengah laporan bahwa Moammar Gaddafi akhirnya menginginkan perdamaian dari krisis Libya.
 
Sekitar satu jam sebelum bursa AS dibuka, indeks saham futures DJIA diperdagangkan naik 27 poin, di level 12,105, sementara indeks futures S&P500 menguat 4.50 poin ke level 1,313.25 dan Nasdaq futures bertambah 4.00 poin di level 2,328.50.
 
Saham AS sempat ditutup melemah hari Senin, akibat kekhawatiran tipisnya supply sehingga menopang harga minyak di rekor harga tertinggi baru disaat bersamaan saham teknologi terpukul oleh downgrade di sektor semikonduktor. Namun hari ini harga minyak telah terkoreksi turun didukung oleh laporan beberapa negara produsen minyak akan menambah produksi dan kemungkinan Gaddafi akan mundur.
 
Minyak mentah berjangka masih diperdagangkan di level $105.20 per barrel, turun -0.26%. Kalender ekonomi yang mempengaruhi pergerakan relative sepi namun pertemuan menteri keuangan AS Timothy Geithner dengan Presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet akan menjadi fokus pasar.

Perburuan Safe Haven Perkokoh Emas

Emas masih bergerak dalam range yang relatif sempit hingga memasuki sesi Eropa hari Selasa. Meskipun menjauh dari rekor tertinggi, Emas masih mendapatkan dukungan dari kekhawatiran geopolitik dan ekonomi makro.
Saat ini Emas ditawarkan pada kisaran $1434.95/1435.75 per ons, dan tengah berada tidak jauh dari level tinggi harian. Emas berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi baru di $1444.30 pada hari kemarin, sebelum tergerus oleh aksi profit taking dan pemulihan Greenback.
 
Berdasarkan grafik, support terdekat berada pada MA 7-hari di $1425, yang diikuti oleh $1420 dan $1410. Sebaliknya, resistensi dapat ditemukan di $1444, kemudian $1445 dan $1450.
 
"Emas dan perak akan diuntungkan beberapa konsolidasi," kata analis William Adams dari FastMarkets. "Tapi meningkatnya kepemilikan pada SPDR menunjukkan keduanya masih akan tetap didukung campuran antara safe haven dan lindung nilai inflasi."