Senin, 21 Maret 2011
Jepang Berupaya Pulihkan Energi
Jepang Harapkan Pemulihan
Negara Asia terpukul dengan bencana ini dan terus melakukan upaya mencegah radiasi mematikan di enam reaktor nuklir Fukushima dengan korban tewas terus meningkat sejak bencana yang meluluh lantakkan Jepang pada 11 Maret. Negara dengan perekonomian ketiga terbesar di dunia telah mengalami kerugian sekitar $ 250 miliar yang ditimbulkan dari kerusakan di seluruh kota di timur laut Jepang. Negara ini berada dalam kondisi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia II.
Pasar Tokyo ditutup di hari Senin. Sementara investor juga masih mempertimbangkan resiko ekonomi global dari berbagai krisis Jepang, dan juga konflik di Libya dan kerusuhan lainnya di negara Arab. (din)
Gold today
Dua Sentimen Perkuat Emas
Kapal perang dan misil negara NATO menyerang Libya pada akhir pekan lalu sehingga memaksa Muammar Khadafi menghentikan serangan terhadap pemberontak. Ia juga langsung mengakhiri serangan terhadap warga sipil.
Spot emas menguat 0.6% ke level $1,427.91 per ons, sekaligus melanjutkan penguatan dari sesi sebelumnya. Adapun kontrak emas AS naik sebanyak 0.8% ke level $1,428.
Emas Naik Setelah Barat Serang Libya
- Spot emas naik nyaris mencapai 0,5% ke level $1,426 per ons.
- Kontrak emas AS naik sebanyak 0,7% ke level $1,426.40.
- Spot perak naik 2,1% ke $35.79 per ons.
Gadhafi vows 'long war' as strikes hit his forces
In an attack that carried as much symbolism as military effect, late Sunday a cruise missile blasted a building in Gadhafi's residential compound, near his iconic tent. It was not known where Gadhafi was at the time, but it seemed to show that while the allies trade nuances over whether his fall is a goal of their campaign - he is not safe.
An Associated Press photographer escorted to the scene by the Libyan government said half of the round, three-story administration building was knocked down, smoke was rising from it and pieces of the missile were scattered around the scene. About 300 Gadhafi supporters were in the compound at the time. It was not known if any were hurt.
The U.S. military said the bombardment so far - a rain of Tomahawk cruise missiles and precision bombs from American and European aircraft, including long-range stealth B-2 bombers - had succeeded in heavily degrading Gadhafi's air defenses.
In addition to targeting anti-aircaft sites, U.S., British and French planes blasted a line of tanks that had been moving on the rebel capital Benghazi, in the opposition-held eastern half of the country. On Sunday, at least seven demolished tanks smoldered in a field 12 miles (20 kilometers) south of Benghazi, many of them with their turrets and treads blown off, alongside charred armored personnel carriers, jeeps and SUVs of the kind used by Gadhafi fighters.
"I feel like in two days max we will destroy Gadhafi," said Ezzeldin Helwani, 35, a rebel standing next to the smoldering wreckage of an armored personnel carrier, the air thick with smoke and the pungent smell of burning rubber. In a grisly sort of battle trophy, celebrating fighters hung a severed goat's head with a cigarette in its mouth from the turret of one of the gutted tanks.
The strikes that began early Sunday gave immediate, if temporary, relief to Benghazi, which the day before had been under a heavy attack that killed at least 120 people. The city's calm on Sunday highlighted the dramatic turnaround that the allied strikes bring to Libya's month-old upheaval: For the past 10 days, Gadhafi's forces had been on a triumphant offensive against the rebel-held east, driving opposition fighters back with the overwhelming firepower of tanks, artillery, warplanes and warships.
Now Gadhafi's forces are potential targets for U.S. and European strikes. The U.N. resolution authorizing international military action in Libya not only sets up a no-fly zone but allows "all necessary measures" to prevent attacks on civilians.
But the U.S. military, for the time being at the lead of the international campaign, is trying to walk a fine line over the end game of the assault. It is avoiding for now any appearance that it aims to take out Gadhafi or help the rebels oust him, instead limiting its stated goals to protecting civilians.
At the Pentagon, Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney underlined that strikes are not specifically targeting the Libyan leader or his residence in Tripoli. He said that any of Gadhafi's ground forces advancing on the rebels were open targets.
"If they are moving on opposition forces ... yes, we will take them under attack," he told reporters.
"We judge these strikes to have been very effective in significantly degrading the regime's air defense capability," Gortney said. "We believe his forces are under significant stress and suffering from both isolation and a good deal of confusion."
A military official said Air Force B-2 stealth bombers flew 25 hours in a round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and dropped 45 2,000-pound bombs.
What happens if rebel forces eventually go on the offensive against Gadhafi's troops remains unclear. Gortney would not say whether strikes would hit Libyan troops fighting back against rebel assaults.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said late Sunday that the U.S. expects turn over control of the operation to a coalition headed by France, Britain or NATO "in a matter of days," reflecting concern that the U.S. military was stretched thin by its current missions. Turkey was blocking NATO action, which requires agreement by all 28 members of the alliance.
Danish Defense Minister Gitte Lillelund Bech confirmed to The Associated Press that four Danish F-16s took part in missions over Libya on Sunday. "We are using military means, but there are also a lot of other means we can use to make sure that Gadhafi will not be running Libya in the future," she said.
Sunday night, heavy anti-aircraft fire erupted repeatedly in the capital, Tripoli, with arcs of red tracer bullets and exploding shells in the dark sky - marking the start of a second night of international strikes. Gadhafi supporters in the streets shot automatic weapons in the air in a show of defiance. It was not immediately known what was being targeted in the new strikes.
Libyan army spokesman Col. Milad al-Fokhi said Libyan army units had been ordered to cease fire at 9 p.m. local time, but the hour passed with no letup in military activity.
Gadhafi vowed to fight on. In a phone call to Libyan state television Sunday, he said he would not let up on Benghazi and said the government had opened up weapons depots to all Libyans, who were now armed with "automatic weapons, mortars and bombs." State television said Gadhafi's supporters were converging on airports as human shields.
"We promise you a long war," he said.
He called the international assault "simply a colonial crusader aggression that may ignite another large-scale crusader war."
Throughout the day Sunday, Libyan TV showed a stream of what it said were popular demonstrations in support of Gadhafi in Tripoli and other towns and cities. It showed cars with horns blaring, women ululating, young men waving green flags and holding up pictures of the Libyan leader. Women and children chanted, "God, Moammar and Libya, that's it!"
"Our blood is green, not red," one unidentified woman told the broadcaster, referring to the signature color of Gadhafi's regime. "He is our father, we will be with him to the last drop of blood. Our blood is green with our love for him."
Among the targets hit in the first night of strikes before dawn Sunday was one of Libya's main air bases, on Tripoli's outskirts, the opposition said. Also hit, it said, was an air force complex outside Misrata, the last rebel-held city in western Libya - which has been under siege the past week by Gadhafi forces. Those forces have been bombarding the city from the complex, which houses an air base and a military academy.
Despite the strikes, the troops resumed bombarding Misrata during the day Sunday, said Switzerland-based Libyan activist Fathi al-Warfali.
"Misrata is the only city in western Libya not under Gadhafi's control; he is trying hard to change its position," said al-Warfali, who told The Associated Press he was in touch with residents in the city.
In Benghazi, the rebel capital and first city to fall to the uprising that began Feb. 15, residents were celebrating the dramatic turn of events. The day before, Gadhafi's forces pounded the city of around 700,000 with artillery and tank shells and punched through the outskirts in heavy street battles. Along the tree-lined road into Benghazi, buildings riddled with pockmarks and burnt-out cars, buses and tanks gave testimony to the ferocity of the fighting.
"Yesterday was a catastrophe," said Salwa el-Daghili, a member of the opposition national council that governs rebel-held territory. "Today, there is hope - you can see it on the streets."
Outside the city, hundreds of men roamed the wreckage of the tanks and army vehicles hit by the allied strikes. Shredded blankets, torn foam mattresses and empty cans of tomato paste littered the field.
"Thank you, France. Thank you, America," said Abdul-Gader Dejuli as he surveyed the wreckage. "Obama good, Sarkozy good."
The allied assault began in the early hours Sunday with a wave of strikes by French warplanes in the east, followed by a barrage of 112 cruise missiles fired by U.S. and British warships and submarines in the Mediterranean targeting radar systems, communications centers and surface-to-air missile sites. Bombings mainly from American aircraft - including B-2 stealth bombers and F-15 and F-16 fighter-bombers - then targeted Libyan ground forces and air defenses, the U.S. military said.
The systems targeted most closely were Libya's SA-5 surface-to-air missiles, Russian-made weaponry that could pose a threat to allied aircraft many miles off the Libyan coastline. Libya has a range of other air defense weaponry, including portable surface-to-air missiles that are more difficult to eliminate by bombing.
Libya said 48 people were killed, including many civilians. That brought criticism of the campaign from the head of the Arab League, which last week took the unprecedented step of calling for a no-fly zone. On Sunday, Arab League chief Amr Moussa criticized the allied strikes, saying they went beyond what the Arab body had supported.
"What happened differs from the no-fly zone objectives," Moussa told reporters in Cairo. "What we want is civilians' protection not shelling more civilians."
Nevertheless, France on Sunday said warplanes in the Arab Gulf nation of Qatar would participate in the campaign, a sign of continued Arab support.
The prospect of Gadhafi remaining in control of at least a portion of the country raises questions about how far the Obama administration and its European and other partners are willing to go with military force.
Obama referred to Libya but did not discuss the unfolding operation during remarks in Brazil.
"We've seen the people of Libya take a courageous stand against a regime determined to brutalize its own citizens," Obama said.
"No one can say for certain how this change will end, but I do know that change is not something that we should fear. When young people insist that the currents of history are on the move, the burdens of the past can be washed away."
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was pressed repeatedly during a round of Sunday television interviews to explain the mission's objectives. He said the main goal is to protect civilians from further violence.
"I think circumstances will drive where this goes in the future," the admiral said on ABC's "This Week." "I wouldn't speculate in terms of length at this particular point in time."
Asked whether it was possible that the military goals might be met without Gadhafi being ousted, Mullen replied, "That's certainly potentially one outcome." He described the Libyan strongman as more isolated than ever, adding that Gadhafi is "going to have to make some choices about his own future" at some point.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that although ousting Gadhafi is not an explicit goal of the campaign, his departure might be hastened as the conflict continues.
"The opposition is largely led by those who defected from the Gadhafi regime or who formerly served it, and it is certainly to be wished for that there will be even more such defections, that people will put the future of Libya and the interests of the Libyan people above their service to Col. Gadhafi," she said.
Lucas reported from Benghazi, Libya. Associated Press writers Maggie Michael in Cairo and Lolita C. Baldor and Robert Burns in Washington contributed to this report.
Bahrain makin memburuk
Partai Oposisi Syiah utarakan kepolian menahan Hassan Mushaima, pemimpin gerakan Shiite Haq, dan Ebrahim Sharif, seorang Sunni sekuler dan kepala oposisi National Democratic Action Society. Raja Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa telah tawarkan dialog nasional, dan Putra Mahkota Salman juga komitmen untuk berdiskusi.
"Saat seperti ini, masyarakat cenderung menjadi lebih ekstrim. Oposisi akan semakin keras karena penggunaan kekerasan oleh pemerintah," ungkap Simon Henderson, petinggi Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Kepemimpinan sedang diuji. Meski belum ada penahanan secara masa; namun cukup banyak rakyat yang marah."
Kaum Syi'ah Bahrain miliki hubungan yang erat dengan kaum Syiah lainnya di Iran maupun Arab Saudi. Awal pekan, Iran menarik duta besarnya untuk protes tindakan Bahrain. Di Arab Saudi, sekitar 1.000 orang langsungkan aksi unjuk rasa damai. Hampir 1.000 kaum Syiah Kuwait juga berdemonstrasi untuk tunjukkan solidaritas.
PBB sahkan Perang dengan Qaddafi
Pasukan Muammar Qaddafi akan hadapi serangan udara dari AS, Perancis, dan sekutu setelah Dewan Keamanan PBB sah-kan penggunaan kekuatan untuk lindungi warga sipil. PBB izinkan AS, Inggris, Perancis, dan negara Arab untuk lakukan tindakan yang diperlukan demi lindungi warga sipil; namun PBB tidak cantumkan pendudukan pasukan asing terhadap wilayah apapun di Libya. Perancis katakan aksi militer akan dimulai segera sedangkan Perdana Menteri Inggris David Cameron langsungkan pertemuan kabinet darurat.
Putra Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam, merespon keputusan PBB dengan cegah tentaranya masuki Benghazi, tapi akan tetap kepung kota yang dikuasai pemberontak, menurut laporan Agence France-Presse. Qaddafi sebelumnya telah ancam hancurkan oposisi, dan rebut Benghazi. Pihak pemberontak sambut baik resolusi PBB dan harga minyak pun lanjutkan reli akibat ekspektasi terganggunya supplai dari Libya.
Putra Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam, merespon keputusan PBB dengan cegah tentaranya masuki Benghazi, tapi akan tetap kepung kota yang dikuasai pemberontak, menurut laporan Agence France-Presse. Qaddafi sebelumnya telah ancam hancurkan oposisi, dan rebut Benghazi. Pihak pemberontak sambut baik resolusi PBB dan harga minyak pun lanjutkan reli akibat ekspektasi terganggunya supplai dari Libya.
Gold : uji resistance
Hangseng Today
Setelah dibuka dengan gap-up, indeks Hang Seng (HSI) langsung melejit hingga diatas level 22500 dan kemungkinan masih bisa melanjutkan penguatan tipisnya.
Penguatan indeks akan terbatas terkait penguatan Wall Street yang bersifat waspada di hari Jumat berkenaan para investor masih dicengkeram dengan terus menerusnya krisis nuklir Jepang dan gejolak politik di Libya.
Secara teknikal umum bias indeks masih bearish dengan 22350 sebagai support terdekat, dibutuhkan break ke bawah area ini untuk memicu momentum bearish lanjutan. Bagaimanapun, pergerakan konstan di atas area 22500 akan memicu bullish reversal menuju 22650 sebelum akhirnya menguji area 22785.
Resistance Level : 22550, 22650, 22785
Support Level : 22350, 22250, 22095
Trading Range : 22250 – 22785
Teknikal: Bullish HSI Dihantui Nuklir dan Geopolitik
Penguatan indeks akan terbatas terkait penguatan Wall Street yang bersifat waspada di hari Jumat berkenaan para investor masih dicengkeram dengan terus menerusnya krisis nuklir Jepang dan gejolak politik di Libya, Yaman dan Bahrain.
Secara teknikal umum bias indeks masih bearish dengan 22350 sebagai support terdekat, dibutuhkan break ke bawah area ini untuk memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menuju tahanan berikutnya di 22250 dan 22095 (Sesuai arah stochastic).
Hang Seng Rebound Pasca Agresi Militer
Namun ketidak pastian di Libya pasca agresi militer oleh sekutu membatasi penguatan indeks, dengan indeks yang berada di kisaran 22,600 untuk jangka pendek. Mayoritas saham perbankan dan developer menguat, mengabaikan berita bahwa Bank Rakyat Cina akan menaikkan rasio cadangan modal untuk ketiga kalinya tahun ini, sesuai dengan perkiraan. ICBC naik 0.5% di HK$5.98, China Construction Bank menguat 0.7% menjadi HK$7.00 dan China Resources Land naik 1.1% menjadi HK$13.00. Foxconn melambung 1.3% menjadi HK$4.83 setelah berita bahwa perusahaan bermaksud untuk menjual salah satu unitnya, Foxconn Precision Electronics (Taiyuan), ke Hon Hai Precision Industry senilai CNY463.3 juta.
Volume perdagangan modest HK$8.61 milyar.
Emas Naik Setelah Barat Serang Libya
Spot emas bertambah nyaris 0.5% di level $1,426 per ons.
Kontrak emas AS naik sebanyak 0.7% di level $1,426.40.
Spot perak naik 2.1% di $35.79 per ons.
Emas relatif stabil
Saat ini Emas ditawarkan pada kisaran $1418.90/1419.70 per ons, atau naik sekitar $14. Berdasarkan grafik, pergerakan di atas MA 21-hari pada $1413, telah menggeser target berikutnya ke $1426 dan $1431 selanjutnya. Sebaliknya, support dapat ditemukan di $1407 dan kemudian $1402.
Jumat, 18 Maret 2011
Yen Today
USDJPY saat ini mengalami penguatan yang signifikan dan tengah menuji area resistance dikisaran 81.47. Secara teknikal, pecahnya level resistance tersebut berpotensi memicu terjadinya penguatan lanjutan menuju area 82.69. Namun kondisi CCI dan Juga Stochastic yang telah berada dalam area overbought dapat memicu terjadinya koreksi jangka pendek ke area support dikisaran 81.47 hingga area 80.25.
Sterling Today
GBPUSD saat ini terlihat tengah menguji area resistance dikisaran 1.6146. pecahnya level resistance dapat memicu terjadinya penguatan lanjutan menuju area 1.6198 hingga 1.6250. Sementara itu, waspadai pula potensi terjadinya koreksi yang tercermin pada kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang telah overbought. Koreksi terjauh yang dapat diperkirakan untuk saat ini jika area resistance mampu bertahan berada dikisaran 1.6087.
Uero today
Yen Tumbang Setelah G7
BoJ Jamin Stabilitas
Menkeu Jepang Bantah Repatriasi Yen
“Hal terpenting yang harus dilakukan di pasar menggila saat ini adalah tetap tenang, dan mengambil posisi yang mengikuti emosi, dan mempertahankan resiko dalam level yang terkendali”, dikatakan Sean Lee, seorang editor dari Forexlive. Ia melanjutkan:”..telah melihat USD/JPY yang turun sebanyak 14 angka dalam sebuah sesi, jadi jangan menganggap bahwa kepanikan sudah berakhir dan selesai sudah. Reli kembali menuju 79.00/50 yang akan ditemui para penjual dan hal itu sudah memuncak saat ini; saya berharap adanya kejatuhan menuju 75.00 yang akan dipandang sebagai level nilai yang bagus”.
G7: Intervensi Bersama Bantu Jepang
Para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral dari G7 pada hari Jumat mengumumkan intervensi bersama untuk pasar uang untuk pertama kalinya sejak tahun 2000 guna membantu Jepang. Apakah hal terebut akan efektif untuk jangka panjang masih terlihat, tetapi intervensi bersama sepertinya akan berjalan hari Jumat, dengan dollar AS yang pulih setelah pemberitaan tersebut, pembelian Yen pada level 81.21, naik dari sekitar 79.14 Yen sebelum pengumuman tersebut.
Bursa saham Jepang juga menguat di sesi pagi perdagangan, dengan Nikkei rata-rata memasuki pasar di pertengahan hari naik 1.8%.
G7 dalam sebuah pernyataan mengikuti conference call pagi: “Guna merespon terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar Yen yang berkaitan dengan bencana yang terjadi di Jepang, dan sesuai dengan permintaan dari otoritas Jepang, AS, Inggris, Kanada dan ECB yang akan bergabung dengan Jepang, pada 18 Maret, dalam sebuah intervensi di pasar uang (valas)”.
G7 untuk pasar eropa
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 berhasil mengumpulkan 1,45%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing menguat 0,9% dan 1,04%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE diperdagangkan hampir 1% lebih tinggi dalam satu jam setelah pembukaan.
Gold tetap trend cemerlang
Minyak kembali reli pasca tindakan militer pihak otoritas PBB untuk melawan pasukan Kol. Moammar Gadhafi di Libya. "Jika harga minyak terus bergerak naik, emas dapat kembali dijadikan sebagai alat lindung nilai terhadap inflasi," menurut Phillip Futures. Minyak Nymex $103/bbl naik $1.58, melambung oleh adanya ketidak pastian atas waktu dan skala dari tindakan militer di Libya.
Emas Tocom untuk kontrak Februari 2012 di Y3,700/gram, naik Y139 terkait intervensi mata uang oleh G7 yang mendorong investor untuk kembali masuk ke dalam pasar aset termasuk emas.
Gold up 0.5%
Spot emas bertambah $7.56 per ons ke $1,409.96 per ons. Emas masih dibawah tingginya selama ini disekitar $1,444 yang terjadi minggu lalu.
Kamis, 17 Maret 2011
Gold today
G-7 Akan Bantu Pelemahan Yen
Menteri Keuangan Jepang Yoshihiko Noda utarakan menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral negara G-7 akan langsungkan diskusi besok untuk bahas keadaan paska gempa. "Meski belum ada tanda intervensi, kemungkinan-nya meningkat dalam 24 jam ke depan," ungkap Greg Anderson, strategis Citigroup. "G-7 akan terkoordinasi kebijakan."
“Jika G-7 setuju stabilkan pergerakan yen maka Jepang, AS, dan Eropa akan jual yen, beli dollar dan euro," papar Yasunari Ueno, ekonom Mizuho Investor. "Pergerakan yen belakangan ini tentu dapatkan perhatian khusus BoJ," ungkap Win Thin, strategis Brown Brothers Harriman. "Volatilitas seperti sekarang akan dorong intervensi BoJ, yang tentunya diizinkan G-7."
G 7
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 berhasil mengumpulkan 1,45%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing menguat 0,9% dan 1,04%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE diperdagangkan hampir 1% lebih tinggi dalam satu jam setelah pembukaan.
gold up
Emas pulih dan akan lanjutkan penguatan seiring memburuknya gejolak Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara serta krisis nuklir Jepang yang tingkatkan permintaan terhadap aset safe haven. Lebih dari 300 pekerja berlomba untuk cegah penyebaran radiasi reaktor nuklir Fukushima paska gempa dan tsunami. Helikopter siram air seberat 30 metrik ton untuk dinginkan reaktor. Belum ada peningkatan radiasi, namun AS berencana evakuasi warganya yang ingin tinggalkan Jepang. Sementara itu, pesawat terbang Muammar Qaddafi bombardir pangkalan udara Benghazi demi kuasai pusat pemerintahan pemberontak. PBB masih berdebat apakah akan bertindak demi hentikan kekerasan di Libya. Di Bahrain, polisi tangkapi pemimpin oposisi dan paksa demonstran bubar. "Situasi di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara buat investor enggan untuk jual emas dan kini kita hadapi krisis nuklir Jepang," ujar Bernard Sin, petinggi MKS Finance. "Tidak ada alternatif investasi yang aman sekarang selain emas."
Jual Yen: “Perdagangan Dekade Terkini” – BNP Paribas
Yen kembali menguat terhadap dollar AS walaupun Jepang dilanda gempa terkait ekspektasi kembalinya aliran (dana). USD/JPY kembali mengancam level-level rendahnya setelah menyentuh 80.50 hari Selasa, dan membuat penguatan besar-besaran terhadap mata uang yang lebih beresiko seperti dollar Australia, Euro maupun Sterling. Akan tetapi BNP Paribas melihat hal ini sebagai “tren perdagangan dekade terkini” dan mengatakan untuk kembali menjual Yen.Seorang analis mata uang dari sebuah bank yang berbasis di Perancis, Mary Nicola menerangkan kepada Reuters Insider mengapa bertahannya pergerakan bearish terhadap Yen masih dapat dimaklumi.
Ketika ditanya alasan Yen bergerak turun mendekati level saat ini di sekitar 80 dan pada akhirnya naik ke 105 menjelang akhir tahun, Mary mengatakan: "Saya pikir terdapat perbedaan yang besar sekali antara yang kami lihat selama gempa di Kobe pada tahun 1995 dibandingkan sekarang. Hal yang besar dan yang melatarbelakangi pergerakan yang mempengaruhi posisi keuangan di Jepang, yang saat ini memburuk dari sebelumnya di 1995 dimana Jepang harus menerima kenyataan bahwa mereka saat ini tidak mampu berbuat apa-apa, maka Jepang harus fokus pada kebijakan moneter dan BOJ harus mengembangkan neraca mereka”.
Yen Today
Yen Melejit
Menguatnya mata uang yang mewakili permasalahan yang dialami Jepang saat ini yang berusaha menanggulangi memburuknya krisis nuklir, meyakinkan bahwa pelaku pasar bahwa hal ini hanya masalah waktu sebelum pihak otoritas Jepang melakukan intervensi kepada penguatan Yen.
Importir Jepang dan para pemain jangka pendek kembali membeli dollar AS, membantu mengangkat dollar AS kembali ke 79.65 Yen dari level rendahnya selama ini di 76.25 menurut EBS.
Yen Hits Record High on Dollar; Will Central Banks Intervene?
The yen rallied to a new all-time high against the dollar as traders speculated G-7 central bankers may getting ready to intervene to drive the currency lower.Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said early Thursday that he is closely watching foreign exchange markets, but he declined to comment on intervention. He said there have been nervous moves in thin markets.
Just before 5 p.m. New York time Wednesday, dollar yen broke through the 79.75 level and continued to tumble to as low as about 77. Reuters reported that the G-7 finance ministers are expected to hold a conference call Thursday evening New York time to discuss the crisis in Japan.
"It was testing the all time low, testing, testing. Then it went though it. It was just like an air pocket really. It just went crunch right through," said Deutsche Bank chief currency strategist Alan Ruskin. "The absence of the central bank has been stunning actually."
The yen [JPY=X 79.19 
1.53 (+1.97%) 
] has been rising since the 9.0 magnitude earth quake struck Friday, on speculation that Tokyo would be repatriating yen to pay for the damage. The uncertainty about Japan's nuclear crisis has caused even more speculation, as investors watch the struggle to control damaged nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
"The irony is the worse things get in Japan, the stronger the yen gets," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "I don't think it ends unless the central bank comes in and intervenes. There's so much sentiment on the side of long yen that it's going to take a lot of capital to push dollar yen back up. The one thing I can assure you of is this is going to be a very volatile night."
1.53 (+1.97%) ] has been rising since the 9.0 magnitude earth quake struck Friday, on speculation that Tokyo would be repatriating yen to pay for the damage. The uncertainty about Japan's nuclear crisis has caused even more speculation, as investors watch the struggle to control damaged nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant."The irony is the worse things get in Japan, the stronger the yen gets," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "I don't think it ends unless the central bank comes in and intervenes. There's so much sentiment on the side of long yen that it's going to take a lot of capital to push dollar yen back up. The one thing I can assure you of is this is going to be a very volatile night."
The dollar has periodically attempted to strengthen against the currency but it has largely been lower in the last several days. "It really raises the question of how much the central bank is really functioning. There might be other factors at play. I think you have to be a little wary. G-7 has a conference call. I can't imagine these guys are going to let this thing go into freefall," said Ruskin.
"If there was any time for coordinated intervention it would be now," said Ruskin.
At the same time, the Swiss franc [CHF=X 0.8987 
-0.0001 (-0.01%) ] was making new highs against the dollar in early evening trading in a flight-to-safety trade. "It's a kind of straight forward 'all hell's breaking loose' between the Middle East and Japan," said Ruskin.
-0.0001 (-0.01%) ] was making new highs against the dollar in early evening trading in a flight-to-safety trade. "It's a kind of straight forward 'all hell's breaking loose' between the Middle East and Japan," said Ruskin.Currency markets also were rife with rumors that the Tokyo Stock Exchange wouldn't open for trading on Thursday, which the exchange denied.
Central Banks Set to Tighten Despite Japan Crisis
Is there a march to raise interest rates in the face of the disaster in Japan? Some investors are starting to doubt it, but the threat of inflation means most rate hikes are likely to go ahead.But unless there is a widespread, long-term crisis over Japan's nuclear power plants, the economic impact on the rest of the world still does not seem as if it will be nearly large enough to alter central banks' intentions.
"The good news/bad news is that Japan has not been an engine of global or Asian growth for some time," said IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh.
"This means that the impact of much lower Japanese growth on the world economy will probably be limited and small."
Norway's central bank signalled on Wednesday it would raise interest rates slightly sooner than originally expected because inflation was picking up. It kept its key interest rate flat but issued a forecast implying a hike by June.
Its policy statement made a brief reference to Japan, saying the effect on global growth was "uncertain," but focused mainly on issues such as global commodity prices and government spending curbs elsewhere in Europe.
Europe
In Europe, Euribor futures contracts for April show the market expects the euro zone's benchmark interbank rate to be trading at 1.285 percent in a month's time, about 5 basis points lower than pricing before the earthquake.
Since Euribor historically trades around 10-15 bps above the European Central Bank's refinancing rate, now at 1.00 percent, the market is no longer fully pricing in a 25 bp hike at the ECB's April policy meeting.
There have been a few signs that European economic confidence may be hit by Japan; on Tuesday, the ZEW think tank said its index of German analyst and investor sentiment unexpectedly fell in March, partly due to Japan.
Asked by the German daily Handelsblatt whether the Japanese disaster could influence ECB policy, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer said: "We will as usual take account of all new information and that will be part of our global assessment."
However, the latest private estimates of damage to the global economy remain small; IHS Global said it would be negligible this year, at most in the 0.1 to 0.2 percent range, with a corresponding boost next year.
Although oil and commodity prices have fallen back since the earthquake, they are still well above levels a year earlier, and could well rebound later this year as demand for reconstruction in Japan kicks in.
And analysts said most of the drop in the ZEW index was due not to Japan but to expectations for a euro zone interest rate rise, after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet called early this month for "strong vigilance" against inflation, a signal that a hike could well come in April.
Because Trichet put some of the ECB's inflation-fighting credibility on the line with that statement, it would take a drastic deterioration in the outlook for the global economy or financial markets for the central bank to change course now, many analysts said.
"Maybe the ECB was a bit too fast in preannouncing the interest rate hike, which painted them into the corner," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. "It needs a lot for them to postpone a rate hike."
Brzeski said he now saw a 75 percent chance of an April rate increase, against 95 percent in early March.
Britain
In Britain, investors have in the last few days dramatically pushed back the earliest date on which they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Money markets are now not pricing in a hike until August, having factored in a 25 bp hike in May only a few weeks ago, and June as recently as last week.
But economists said that while the bulk of the repricing was due to the Japanese disaster and worries about political turmoil in the Middle East, softer British economic data was already causing investors to become less certain about a hike.
"The bottom line is that markets tend to overreact," said Richard Barwell, economist at RBS. "Central banks have to have a slightly more objective perspective about what's going on."
He added that "at the margin [Japan] may have an effect, but the most likely outcome is that it probably won't have a significant impact" on British interest rates.
Switzerland
In Switzerland, the uncertainty over Japan has removed the outside chance of a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at its decision on Thursday, economists said.
Interest rate futures had been pricing in an SNB hike in September, with some chance of a move in June, but Japan has sent the franc [CHF=X 0.8993 0.0005 (+0.06%) ] up sharply against both the euro [EUR=X 1.3916 0.0014 (+0.1%) ] and the dollar. Since Switzerland does not want too strong a franc, bets on a rate hike have pulled back to December 2011.
0.0005 (+0.06%) ] up sharply against both the euro [EUR=X 1.3916 0.0014 (+0.1%) ] and the dollar. Since Switzerland does not want too strong a franc, bets on a rate hike have pulled back to December 2011.Before the Japanese disaster, analysts had expected the SNB on Thursday to clearly set the stage for rate hikes later this year. Now, it is likely to sound more cautious.
"The uncertainty has risen of course and the reaction of the Swiss franc is clear. Given this background, the SNB will likely be careful not to issue a hawkish statement," said Credit Suisse economist Fabian Heller.
Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984
U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history. Groundbreaking on new construction dropped 22.5 percent last month to an annual rate of 479,000 units, according to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday. This was just above a record low set in April 2009 and way below the estimates of economists, who had been looking for a smaller drop to 570,000.
January's figure was revised up to 618,000 units from 596,000. But that did not change the tenor of the report, which confirmed that the sector is failing to recover despite interest rates near record lows.
Building permits, a hint of future construction demand, fell to a record low of 517,000 units from a revised 563,000, and were down by about 20 percent from levels seen in February 2010.
Housing was at the epicenter of the financial crisis of 2007-2009.
One key impediment to the sector's recovery is a vast backlog of unsold inventory, while a shaky job market has also made consumers reluctant to embark on any major new financial commitments. Making matters worse, a glut of foreclosures, stalled in recent months by revelations of improper loan documentation, is depressing the market.
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