Indeks Eurostoxx 50 berhasil mengumpulkan 1,45%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing menguat 0,9% dan 1,04%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE diperdagangkan hampir 1% lebih tinggi dalam satu jam setelah pembukaan.
Kamis, 17 Maret 2011
G 7
gold up
Emas pulih dan akan lanjutkan penguatan seiring memburuknya gejolak Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara serta krisis nuklir Jepang yang tingkatkan permintaan terhadap aset safe haven. Lebih dari 300 pekerja berlomba untuk cegah penyebaran radiasi reaktor nuklir Fukushima paska gempa dan tsunami. Helikopter siram air seberat 30 metrik ton untuk dinginkan reaktor. Belum ada peningkatan radiasi, namun AS berencana evakuasi warganya yang ingin tinggalkan Jepang. Sementara itu, pesawat terbang Muammar Qaddafi bombardir pangkalan udara Benghazi demi kuasai pusat pemerintahan pemberontak. PBB masih berdebat apakah akan bertindak demi hentikan kekerasan di Libya. Di Bahrain, polisi tangkapi pemimpin oposisi dan paksa demonstran bubar. "Situasi di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara buat investor enggan untuk jual emas dan kini kita hadapi krisis nuklir Jepang," ujar Bernard Sin, petinggi MKS Finance. "Tidak ada alternatif investasi yang aman sekarang selain emas."
Jual Yen: “Perdagangan Dekade Terkini” – BNP Paribas
Yen kembali menguat terhadap dollar AS walaupun Jepang dilanda gempa terkait ekspektasi kembalinya aliran (dana). USD/JPY kembali mengancam level-level rendahnya setelah menyentuh 80.50 hari Selasa, dan membuat penguatan besar-besaran terhadap mata uang yang lebih beresiko seperti dollar Australia, Euro maupun Sterling. Akan tetapi BNP Paribas melihat hal ini sebagai “tren perdagangan dekade terkini” dan mengatakan untuk kembali menjual Yen.Seorang analis mata uang dari sebuah bank yang berbasis di Perancis, Mary Nicola menerangkan kepada Reuters Insider mengapa bertahannya pergerakan bearish terhadap Yen masih dapat dimaklumi.
Ketika ditanya alasan Yen bergerak turun mendekati level saat ini di sekitar 80 dan pada akhirnya naik ke 105 menjelang akhir tahun, Mary mengatakan: "Saya pikir terdapat perbedaan yang besar sekali antara yang kami lihat selama gempa di Kobe pada tahun 1995 dibandingkan sekarang. Hal yang besar dan yang melatarbelakangi pergerakan yang mempengaruhi posisi keuangan di Jepang, yang saat ini memburuk dari sebelumnya di 1995 dimana Jepang harus menerima kenyataan bahwa mereka saat ini tidak mampu berbuat apa-apa, maka Jepang harus fokus pada kebijakan moneter dan BOJ harus mengembangkan neraca mereka”.
Yen Today
Yen Melejit
Menguatnya mata uang yang mewakili permasalahan yang dialami Jepang saat ini yang berusaha menanggulangi memburuknya krisis nuklir, meyakinkan bahwa pelaku pasar bahwa hal ini hanya masalah waktu sebelum pihak otoritas Jepang melakukan intervensi kepada penguatan Yen.
Importir Jepang dan para pemain jangka pendek kembali membeli dollar AS, membantu mengangkat dollar AS kembali ke 79.65 Yen dari level rendahnya selama ini di 76.25 menurut EBS.
Yen Hits Record High on Dollar; Will Central Banks Intervene?
The yen rallied to a new all-time high against the dollar as traders speculated G-7 central bankers may getting ready to intervene to drive the currency lower.Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said early Thursday that he is closely watching foreign exchange markets, but he declined to comment on intervention. He said there have been nervous moves in thin markets.
Just before 5 p.m. New York time Wednesday, dollar yen broke through the 79.75 level and continued to tumble to as low as about 77. Reuters reported that the G-7 finance ministers are expected to hold a conference call Thursday evening New York time to discuss the crisis in Japan.
"It was testing the all time low, testing, testing. Then it went though it. It was just like an air pocket really. It just went crunch right through," said Deutsche Bank chief currency strategist Alan Ruskin. "The absence of the central bank has been stunning actually."
The yen [JPY=X 79.19 
1.53 (+1.97%) 
] has been rising since the 9.0 magnitude earth quake struck Friday, on speculation that Tokyo would be repatriating yen to pay for the damage. The uncertainty about Japan's nuclear crisis has caused even more speculation, as investors watch the struggle to control damaged nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
"The irony is the worse things get in Japan, the stronger the yen gets," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "I don't think it ends unless the central bank comes in and intervenes. There's so much sentiment on the side of long yen that it's going to take a lot of capital to push dollar yen back up. The one thing I can assure you of is this is going to be a very volatile night."
1.53 (+1.97%) ] has been rising since the 9.0 magnitude earth quake struck Friday, on speculation that Tokyo would be repatriating yen to pay for the damage. The uncertainty about Japan's nuclear crisis has caused even more speculation, as investors watch the struggle to control damaged nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant."The irony is the worse things get in Japan, the stronger the yen gets," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "I don't think it ends unless the central bank comes in and intervenes. There's so much sentiment on the side of long yen that it's going to take a lot of capital to push dollar yen back up. The one thing I can assure you of is this is going to be a very volatile night."
The dollar has periodically attempted to strengthen against the currency but it has largely been lower in the last several days. "It really raises the question of how much the central bank is really functioning. There might be other factors at play. I think you have to be a little wary. G-7 has a conference call. I can't imagine these guys are going to let this thing go into freefall," said Ruskin.
"If there was any time for coordinated intervention it would be now," said Ruskin.
At the same time, the Swiss franc [CHF=X 0.8987 
-0.0001 (-0.01%) ] was making new highs against the dollar in early evening trading in a flight-to-safety trade. "It's a kind of straight forward 'all hell's breaking loose' between the Middle East and Japan," said Ruskin.
-0.0001 (-0.01%) ] was making new highs against the dollar in early evening trading in a flight-to-safety trade. "It's a kind of straight forward 'all hell's breaking loose' between the Middle East and Japan," said Ruskin.Currency markets also were rife with rumors that the Tokyo Stock Exchange wouldn't open for trading on Thursday, which the exchange denied.
Central Banks Set to Tighten Despite Japan Crisis
Is there a march to raise interest rates in the face of the disaster in Japan? Some investors are starting to doubt it, but the threat of inflation means most rate hikes are likely to go ahead.But unless there is a widespread, long-term crisis over Japan's nuclear power plants, the economic impact on the rest of the world still does not seem as if it will be nearly large enough to alter central banks' intentions.
"The good news/bad news is that Japan has not been an engine of global or Asian growth for some time," said IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh.
"This means that the impact of much lower Japanese growth on the world economy will probably be limited and small."
Norway's central bank signalled on Wednesday it would raise interest rates slightly sooner than originally expected because inflation was picking up. It kept its key interest rate flat but issued a forecast implying a hike by June.
Its policy statement made a brief reference to Japan, saying the effect on global growth was "uncertain," but focused mainly on issues such as global commodity prices and government spending curbs elsewhere in Europe.
Europe
In Europe, Euribor futures contracts for April show the market expects the euro zone's benchmark interbank rate to be trading at 1.285 percent in a month's time, about 5 basis points lower than pricing before the earthquake.
Since Euribor historically trades around 10-15 bps above the European Central Bank's refinancing rate, now at 1.00 percent, the market is no longer fully pricing in a 25 bp hike at the ECB's April policy meeting.
There have been a few signs that European economic confidence may be hit by Japan; on Tuesday, the ZEW think tank said its index of German analyst and investor sentiment unexpectedly fell in March, partly due to Japan.
Asked by the German daily Handelsblatt whether the Japanese disaster could influence ECB policy, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer said: "We will as usual take account of all new information and that will be part of our global assessment."
However, the latest private estimates of damage to the global economy remain small; IHS Global said it would be negligible this year, at most in the 0.1 to 0.2 percent range, with a corresponding boost next year.
Although oil and commodity prices have fallen back since the earthquake, they are still well above levels a year earlier, and could well rebound later this year as demand for reconstruction in Japan kicks in.
And analysts said most of the drop in the ZEW index was due not to Japan but to expectations for a euro zone interest rate rise, after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet called early this month for "strong vigilance" against inflation, a signal that a hike could well come in April.
Because Trichet put some of the ECB's inflation-fighting credibility on the line with that statement, it would take a drastic deterioration in the outlook for the global economy or financial markets for the central bank to change course now, many analysts said.
"Maybe the ECB was a bit too fast in preannouncing the interest rate hike, which painted them into the corner," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said. "It needs a lot for them to postpone a rate hike."
Brzeski said he now saw a 75 percent chance of an April rate increase, against 95 percent in early March.
Britain
In Britain, investors have in the last few days dramatically pushed back the earliest date on which they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Money markets are now not pricing in a hike until August, having factored in a 25 bp hike in May only a few weeks ago, and June as recently as last week.
But economists said that while the bulk of the repricing was due to the Japanese disaster and worries about political turmoil in the Middle East, softer British economic data was already causing investors to become less certain about a hike.
"The bottom line is that markets tend to overreact," said Richard Barwell, economist at RBS. "Central banks have to have a slightly more objective perspective about what's going on."
He added that "at the margin [Japan] may have an effect, but the most likely outcome is that it probably won't have a significant impact" on British interest rates.
Switzerland
In Switzerland, the uncertainty over Japan has removed the outside chance of a surprise rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at its decision on Thursday, economists said.
Interest rate futures had been pricing in an SNB hike in September, with some chance of a move in June, but Japan has sent the franc [CHF=X 0.8993 0.0005 (+0.06%) ] up sharply against both the euro [EUR=X 1.3916 0.0014 (+0.1%) ] and the dollar. Since Switzerland does not want too strong a franc, bets on a rate hike have pulled back to December 2011.
0.0005 (+0.06%) ] up sharply against both the euro [EUR=X 1.3916 0.0014 (+0.1%) ] and the dollar. Since Switzerland does not want too strong a franc, bets on a rate hike have pulled back to December 2011.Before the Japanese disaster, analysts had expected the SNB on Thursday to clearly set the stage for rate hikes later this year. Now, it is likely to sound more cautious.
"The uncertainty has risen of course and the reaction of the Swiss franc is clear. Given this background, the SNB will likely be careful not to issue a hawkish statement," said Credit Suisse economist Fabian Heller.
Housing Starts See Biggest Drop Since 1984
U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history. Groundbreaking on new construction dropped 22.5 percent last month to an annual rate of 479,000 units, according to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday. This was just above a record low set in April 2009 and way below the estimates of economists, who had been looking for a smaller drop to 570,000.
January's figure was revised up to 618,000 units from 596,000. But that did not change the tenor of the report, which confirmed that the sector is failing to recover despite interest rates near record lows.
Building permits, a hint of future construction demand, fell to a record low of 517,000 units from a revised 563,000, and were down by about 20 percent from levels seen in February 2010.
Housing was at the epicenter of the financial crisis of 2007-2009.
One key impediment to the sector's recovery is a vast backlog of unsold inventory, while a shaky job market has also made consumers reluctant to embark on any major new financial commitments. Making matters worse, a glut of foreclosures, stalled in recent months by revelations of improper loan documentation, is depressing the market.
Rabu, 16 Maret 2011
Wall Street Tertekan Data Perumahan AS
Dow Jones Industrial Average tergelincir 57 poin atau 0,5% menjadi 11798 di awal perdagangan, Standard & Poor's 500 tergelincir 4 poin ke 1278 dan Nasdaq Composite kehilangan 9 poin menjadi 2659. Saham IBM terkoreksi 2% dan memimpin penurunan di Dow, diikuti oleh saham General Electric yang melemah 1,2%.
Sektor perumahan AS masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang lemah pada bulan Februari, dengan pembangunan perumahan yang merosot disertai ijin mendirikan bangunan yang mencetak rekor terendah, di tengah berbagai macam permasalahan yang melanda ekonomi global saat ini.
Langkah Moody’s Bebani Bursa Eropa
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 diperdagangkan 0,85% lebih rendah, sedangkan Indeks DAX Jerman tergelincir 0,25% dan Indeks CAC Perancis turun hanpir 1,0%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE kehilangan 0,75%.
"Investor telah berupaya menghindari resiko pada hari kemarin, dan sekarang saatnya untuk kembali melihat faktor fundamental dan seberapa besar dampaknya terhadap pasar," kata Andy Lynch, dari Schroders.
Bahrain, Jepang Pulihkan Emas
"Emas kemarin terkena aksi jual panik yang berlebihan karena investor butuh dana tunai untuk tutupi kerugian di aset keuangan lainnya. Bargain-hunting terlihat di sesi Asia seiring emas jauhi level puncak 1444," ungkap Walter de Wet, analis Standard Bank. "Masih ada permintaan safe-haven dengan gejolak di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, serta krisis Jepang.” Pimpinan Libya, Muammar Qaddafi, kini sedang mengatur strategi untuk kuasai kota Benghazi dengan gerakan pasukan ke gerbang kota Ajdabiya, 161 km dari ibukota pemberontak. Pasukan keamanan Bahrain gunakan gas air mata untuk bubarkan pengunjuk rasa di Manama; Bahrain bahkan umumkan keadaan darurat seiring intervensi militer Arab Saudi gagal akhiri demonstrasi.
"Ketegangan geopolitik masih menjadi penggerak untuk waktu dekat," ungkap analis Barclays Capital, Gayle Berry. "Kami masih pertahankan pandangan positif untuk emas sebagai investasi jangka panjang."
Bahrain Police Secure Roundabout; Curfew Coming
In addition, the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) plans to impose a curfew on certain areas and evacuate areas, according to an announcement on Bahrain TV.
The measures the BDF plan to implement are to:
- Impose curfews in certain times and areas
- Evacuate certain areas
- Forbid gatherings that undermine public order
- Impose restrictions on access of certain areas or exit areas
- Inspect and detain suspects.
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Protestors in the roundabout are "all gone," sources told CNBC. Saudi tanks had control of all bridges, which were either closed or "secured."
Earlier, shots were heard on the ground and a huge plume of black smoke rose near the area.
Tear gas was also used and both military and police were at the site. The military positioned itself to the north of the square with tanks, armored vehicles and bulldozers. Security forces in riot gear were seen securing the roundabout.
Earlier, up to 50 military tanks, heavy armored vehicles, several military helicopters and ambulances headed in the direction of the square, which has become a center for protests against the monarchy and the government.
The military brought bulldozers to clear the roundabout. The big Caterpillar bulldozers were carried on trailers behind trucks.
Government sources had told CNBC the operation would be over within hours and the airport road was closed.
The Bahrain military wants to secure the country's capital, clearing the Pearl Roundabout where protests have been held since mid-February. It also aims to secure government buildings, sources in the country told CNBC.
Bahrain's King Hamad al-Khalifa called for a three-month period of "national safety" Tuesday, as protestors continued to clash with security forces throughout mostly Shiite areas of the country.
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The decree amounts to martial law, with businesses closing and moving employees either back to their country of origin or to Dubai. The U.S. embassy in Bahrain has advised all U.S. citizens to limit their movements and to leave home only for essential purposes.
Bahrain has been gripped by its worst unrest since the 1990s after protesters took to the streets last month, inspired by uprisings that toppled the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia.
Unlike those countries, where the mainly Sunni populations united against the regime, Bahrain is split along sectarian lines, raising the risk of a slide into civil conflict.
Over 60 percent of Bahrainis are Shi'ites who complain of discrimination at the hands of the Sunni royal family. Calls for the overthrow of the monarchy have alarmed the Sunni minority, which fears that unrest could serve non-Arab Shi'ite power Iran.
Iran, which sits across the Gulf from Bahrain, sharply criticized the decision to send in Saudi troops.
The United States, a close ally of both Bahrain and Saudi, said it was concerned about reports of growing sectarianism in the country, which is home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, and called for political dialogue to resolve the crisis.
"One thing is clear, there is no military solution to the problems in Bahrain," said White House spokesman Tommy Vietor.
Bahrain asked the Gulf Cooperation Council to lend its support for policing purposes earlier this week; the government says the GCC force is only in the country to protect vital infrastructure such as oil, electricity and water buildings.
At least two people are believed to have died as civilians clashed with armed militias in the Sitra area of Bahrain. Witnesses told CNBC that violence began Tuesday afternoon as militias brandishing knives, clubs and even guns opened fire in the mostly Shiite area, destroying shops and attacking people seemingly at random.
Guns are banned in Bahrain, leading many residents to speculate that the militias were in fact plain clothes security forces. Sources at the Royal Court rebutted such speculation, however, saying that anti-government protestors are armed and that the fighting has been between civilians only.
A banker who asked not to be identified said he feels the royal family and the government have clearly lost control, citing the Gulf Cooperation Council forces that were called in on Monday. He also said Bahrain's crown prince squandered the government's opportunity for a dialogue, failing to bring opposition parties to the table to start talks quickly.
Bahrain is expected to see its gross domestic product contract this year, partly as a result of the disruptions caused by protests.
Workers Briefly Abandon Japan Plant After Radiation Surge
Workers were ordered to withdraw briefly from a stricken Japanese nuclear power plant on Wednesday after radiation levels surged, Kyodo news reported, a development that suggested the crisis was spiraling out of control.Just hours earlier another fire broke out at the earthquake-crippled plant, which has sent low levels of radiation wafting into Tokyo in the past 24 hours, triggering both fear in the capital and international alarm.
The workers were allowed back into the plant after almost an hour when the radiation levels had fallen.
Japan's chief government spokesman said it was "not realistic" to think the Daiichi nuclear plant in Fukushima, 240 kms (150 miles) north of Tokyo, would reach the start of a nuclear chain reaction, but said officials were talking to the U.S. military about possible help.
While public broadcaster NHK said flames were no longer visible at the building housing the No.4 reactor of the plant, TV pictures showed smoke or steam rising from the facility around 9am Hong Kong/Singapore time.
Academics and nuclear experts agree that the solutions being proposed to contain damage to the reactors are last-ditch efforts to stem what could well be remembered as one of the world's worst industrial disasters.
"This is a slow-moving nightmare," said Dr Thomas Neff, a research affiliate at the Center for International Studies, which is part of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Concern had earlier been mounting that the skeleton crews dealing with the crisis might not be big enough, or were possibly exhausted after working for days since last Friday's massive earthquake damaged the facility. Authorities had withdrawn 750 workers on Tuesday, leaving only 50.
The plight of hundreds of thousands left homeless by the quake and devastating tsunami that followed worsened overnight following a cold snap that brought snow to some of the worst-affected areas.
While the official death toll stands at around 4,000, more than 7,000 are listed as missing and the figure is expected to rise.
In the first hint of international frustration at the pace of updates from Japan, Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he wanted more timely and detailed information.
"We do not have all the details of the information so what we can do is limited," Amano told a news conference in Vienna. "I am trying to further improve the communication."
Several experts said that Japanese authorities were underplaying the severity of the incident, particularly on a scale called INES used to rank nuclear incidents. The Japanese have so far rated the accident a four on a one-to-seven scale, but that rating was issued on Saturday and since then the situation has worsened dramatically.
France's nuclear safety authority ASN said Tuesday it should be classed as a level-six incident.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Tuesday urged people within 30 km (18 miles) of the facility — a population of 140,000 — to remain indoors, as authorities grappled with the world's most serious nuclear accident since the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine in 1986.
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Officials in Tokyo said radiation in the capital was 10 times normal at one point but not a threat to human health in the sprawling high-tech city of 13 million people.
But residents have nevertheless reacted to the crisis by staying indoors. Public transport and the streets are as deserted as they would be on a public holiday, and many shops and offices are closed.
Winds over the plant will blow from the north along the Pacific coast early on Wednesday and then from the northwest towards the ocean during the day, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
Fears of trans-Pacific nuclear fallout sent consumers scrambling for radiation antidotes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada. Authorities warned that people would expose themselves to other medical problems by needlessly taking potassium iodide in the hope of protection from cancer.
The nuclear crisis and concerns about the economic impact from the quake and tsunami have hammered Japan's stock market.
The Nikkei index [.N225 9093.72 488.57 (+5.68%) ] ended the morning up 4.37 pct after closing down 10.6 percent on Tuesday and 6.2 percent the day before. The fall wiped some $620 billion off the market.
488.57 (+5.68%) ] ended the morning up 4.37 pct after closing down 10.6 percent on Tuesday and 6.2 percent the day before. The fall wiped some $620 billion off the market.Japan disaster another worry for global economy
Japan's earthquake and nuclear crisis have put pressure on the already fragile global economy, squeezed supplies of goods from computer chips to auto parts and raised fears of higher interest rates.The disaster frightened financial markets in Tokyo and on Wall Street on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei average lost 10 percent, and the Dow Jones industrials fell so quickly after the opening bell that the stock exchange invoked a special rule to reduce volatility.
Yet the damage to the U.S. and world economies is expected to be relatively moderate and short-lived. Oil prices are falling, helping drivers around the world. And the reconstruction expected along Japan's northeastern coast could even provide a jolt of economic growth.
A weaker Japanese economy could help ease global commodity prices because Japan is a major importer of fuel, agricultural products and other raw materials, notes Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Oil prices fell more than $4 to $97.18 a barrel Tuesday because of expectations that quake damage will slow Japan's economy and reduce its demand for energy.
Even "assuming a drastic scenario," Bank of America economist Ethan Harris estimates, the disaster would shave just 0.1 percentage point off global economic growth — to 4.2 percent this year.
"Japan has not been an engine of global or Asian growth for some time," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. "This means that the impact of much lower Japanese growth on the world economy will be probably limited and small."
Japan is only half as important to the world's economy as it was during its last major disaster, the 1995 Kobe earthquake. And the area hit hardest by Friday's quake accounts only about half as much economic output as the area damaged by the Kobe quake, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates.
Japan proved resilient after the Kobe quake: Manufacturers returned to normal production levels within 15 months, according to the CLSA. Four in every five shops were back open in a year and a half. All told, Japan's comeback defied dire warnings that it would take a decade to rebuild.
Autos and auto parts make up more than one-third of U.S. imports from Japan. As a result, shutdowns of Japanese auto factories could disrupt production at U.S. plants owned by Japanese automakers.
At the same time, some U.S. auto parts makers could benefit if Japanese plants in the United States substitute U.S. parts for those they usually get from Japan, Behravesh says.
A big wild card is the fate of Japan's damaged nuclear power plants. The Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, the center of the concern, let off a burst of radiation on Tuesday. Radiation levels in the surrounding area subsided by evening, but unease in Japan did not.
"If the nuclear crisis turns into a full-blown catastrophe, then the negative effect on growth this year will be much larger," IHS' Behravesh says.
Another unknown is the impact of the disruptions to Japan's power supplies. Behravesh estimates about 10 percent of Japan's electricity generation could be off line for several months. If so, that would disrupt steel, auto and other production.
Investors fear that Japan will struggle to finance reconstruction, which is expected to cost the government at least $200 billion. The Japanese government's debt is already an alarming 225 percent of the country's economic output.
Some worry that Japan will sell some of its vast holdings of U.S. government debt to raise money. Doing so would push the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds down and yields up, raising U.S. interest rates.
But Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Tuesday dismissed the fears of a Japanese fire sale of Treasury debt.
"Japan is a very rich country and has a high savings rate," he said. It "has the capacity to deal not just with the humanitarian challenge but also the reconstruction challenge they face ahead."
What's more, the Bank of Japan has been buying Treasurys and other assets as it pumps money into the financial system to restore calm.
For now, though, the latest quake, the resulting tsunami and the threat of contamination from a damaged nuclear plant have spooked financial markets. Investors are fretting about the effects on companies around the world. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, accounts for about 10 percent of U.S. exports.
The Dow Jones industrials rebounded after starting the day down almost 300 points. They closed down 137 points, or more than 1 percent. The futures markets, which can indicate whether stocks will rise and fall, looked so pessimistic before the opening bell on Wall Street that the stock exchange invoked a special rule designed to ease volatility.
Stocks plunged 5 percent in Germany and 4 percent in France. And in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei average lost more than 10 percent of its value in a matter of hours.
The quake damaged roads, ports, airports and factories in Japan, disrupting the shipment of goods in and out. The disaster blindsided multinational companies that were bracing for trouble in their transportation lines on the other side of the world — at the Suez Canal or elsewhere in the Middle East where protests are destabilizing countries from Bahrain to Libya, says Patrick Burnson, executive editor of Supply Chain Management Review.
It's shut down auto and auto parts factories. Analysts at Tong Yang Securities in South Korea "do not expect production to normalize any time soon" in Japan. Even plants that stay open may have to wait for parts to arrive, a problem made worse because so many factories follow just-in-time supply management and keep few parts on hand.
Car plants in Thailand could have a harder time getting steel, much of which is imported from Japan.
Japan is a major supplier of NAND flash memory chips, commonly used in portable electronics. Japan-based Toshiba Corp., a big maker of the chips, was among the technology companies that temporarily closed facilities.
Prices for the chips jumped 10 percent from before the earthquake to Monday and another 3 percent Tuesday, according to Jim Handy, a director at Objective Analysis and an expert on the electronics and semiconductor industries.
The "wafers" that are key building blocks of computer chips are also commonly made in Japan. A shortage could pinch big buyers such as Intel Corp., the world's biggest semiconductor company, and Texas Instruments Inc. — though one firm, Barclays Capital, believes Texas Instruments has enough in stock to get by. Supplies are lean, though, of capacitors and other electronics used in cellphones, which are also often made in Japan. Nokia Corp. relies heavily on Japan for those electronics.
Chinese companies are bracing themselves for losses and delays from disruptions in shipments of high-end electronics and auto components from Japan and some are looking for import replacements from South Korea or Taiwan, according to the International Business Daily, the official paper of China's Commerce Ministry.
Some analysts note that companies and consumers that now buy Japanese products can often find alternatives made elsewhere.
"What is made in Japan now has lots of competitive alternatives that didn't exist 25 years ago," says Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland and a former director at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "If there aren't as many Camrys in the country this year as there might have been, you might have a couple hundred thousand additional Ford customers. If those people have good experiences with those cars, it could change buying patterns for life."
David Rea, an economist with Capital Economics in London, said, "You'll have Japan's competitors — largely South Korea and Taiwan who are in high end manufacturing, and China as well — come in and undercut Japanese businesses experiencing disruption from the earthquake."
If Japan's infrastructure doesn't get rebuilt quickly enough, Japanese companies may transfer production overseas to pick up the slack, Rea added.
The reconstruction of Japan's northeastern coast might also provide business opportunities for foreign countries. Malaysian timber, for instance, will likely be needed to rebuild homes and other buildings. IHS predicts that the quake will "ultimately boost" U.S. exports to Japan.
Nikkei
Nikkei naik 3.4% di 8,895, di bawah level tinggi sesi pagi di 8,980 pasca gempa susulan sebesar 6.0 magnitude yang terjadi di Chiba, sebelah utara Tokyo. "Krisis nuklir masih berlanjut dan kondisi pasar berubah setiap saat," menurut Toshihiko Matsuno, pemerhati senior SMBC Friend Securities. Pergerakan Nikkei hari ini terbatas di level 8,500-9,500. Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) mengatakan pekerja yang bekerja di wilayah yang teradiasi diminta untuk tetap berada di dalam akibat meningkatnya radiasi.”
31/33 Topix subindeks menguat; Mitsui Fudosan naik 14% di Y1,395 setelah kemarin turun 16%. Panasonic melonjak 5.5% di Y914 dan Sharp melambung 7.3% di Y724 terkait investor terus menaksir imbas terhadap produksi yang dapat mempengaruhi pendapatan korporat. Saham berbasis nuklir, Toshiba anjlok 1.2% di Y327. Tepco turun 1.9% di Y921.
Saham Energi Bantu Pemulihan
Fed: Perekonomian Menguat dan Stabil
Hangseng Today
Setelah dibuka melonjak hingga ke level 22780, indeks Hang Seng futures (HSIc1) kembali tergerus dan tidak kuat melanjutkan reboundnya, terkait investor masih dicekam oleh perasaan takut akan krisis nuklir pasca gempa di Jepang.
Secara teknikal bias indeks masih terlihat bearish untuk jangka menengah (ditopang MACD bearish). Dan terutama jika harga dapat menembus ke bawah area 22550, target akan menuju 22415 hingga 22280 sebelum akhirnya menguji 22015 dalam jangka panjang.
Potensi bullish terpantau jika Hanya break ke atas 22800 yang akan memicu bullish reversal menuju area 23045.
Resistance Level : 22800, 22900, 23045
Support Level : 22550, 22415, 22280
Trading Range : 22280 – 22900
Cina Tunda Kenaikan Bunga
Cina menaikkan yield obligasi untuk satu tahun sebesar 20 bps, mensinyalkan adanya kenaikan bunga deposito 25-bp pekan ini. Sejak tahun 2007 PBOC selalu menaikkan suku bunga meski yield satu tahun melampaui bunga deposito satu tahun. Kemungkinan besar PBOC akan melakukan penundaan bahkan pembatalan sampai ada petunjuk yang lebih jelas mengenai imbas kondisi saat ini terhadap ekonomi Cina.
Daiwa memperkirakan sepanjang tahun ini akan terjadi kenaikan rasio cadangan modal sebesar 100 bps dan suku bunga 25 bp
Emas Pulih Dari Rendahnya 1 Bulan
Spot emas bertambah $3.04 per ons ke level $1,396.99 per ons, setelah turun serendahnya di level $1,380.90 per ons hari Selasa, terlemahnya sejak pertengahan Februari. Emas diperdagangkan dibawah MA 25-hari disekitar $1,403.
Kontrak emas AS untuk bulan April naik $4.5 per ons ke $1,397.3 per ons.
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