Asian Stocks Rise, Erasing Losses Since Japan Quake, on Economy, Earnings

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index erasing losses since the March 11 earthquake in Japan, as a jobs report boosted optimism in the U.S. economy and Chinese companies posted earnings that beat analyst estimates.

HTC Corp. (2498), the Taiwanese maker of mobile phones that gets about half of its sales from America, and Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s No. 1 carmaker, rose at least 0.9 percent after a report showed U.S. companies added more workers in March. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by market value, and rival Bank of Communications Ltd. gained at least 1.1 percent in Hong Kong after posting 2010 earnings that surpassed analyst estimates.
“There’s been solid earnings from Chinese companies and U.S. data has also been encouraging,” said Ng Soo Nam, the Singapore-based chief investment officer at Nikko Asset Management Co., which oversees about $126 billion. “The worst of the nuclear crisis in Japan could be behind us.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 135.19 as of 12:23 p.m. Tokyo, heading for its highest close since March 10, the day before Japan’s strongest earthquake on record struck the nation. About the same number of stocks advanced as declined in the measure, which is set for a 1.7 percent decline this month.
Gains today helped trim the index’s loss this quarter to 1.8 percent. The gauge, which was trading around 135.10 on March 11 before the earthquake and the ensuing tsunami struck, tumbled to as low as 121.69 on March 15.

Economic Impact

The Asia-Pacific gauge last week had its biggest weekly gain since November as Japan moved to stabilize nuclear reactors damaged by the earthquake and as companies from Cnooc Ltd. to Bank of China Ltd. reported earnings that surpassed estimates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average was little changed, paring earlier gains of as much as 0.6 percent after a report showed the nation’s manufacturing deteriorated at the fastest pace in at least nine years in March, underscoring forecasts the economy will shrink in the aftermath of the earthquake.

“It’ll take more time for the impact of the earthquake on the economy to be clear,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $450 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index all gained 0.1 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent.

U.S. Employment

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent today. The index rose 0.7 percent yesterday, extending its biggest first-quarter rally in 13 years, as a report from ADP Employer Services showed U.S. companies hired 201,000 workers in March, marking the third time in four months that the nation added more than 200,000 jobs.

A Labor Department report tomorrow may show total U.S. non- farm payrolls rose 190,000 in March and the unemployment rate held at 8.9 percent, economists predict. The jobless rate fell below 9 percent in February for the first time in 22 months.

HTC, which counts America as its biggest market, climbed 3.2 percent to NT$1,130 in Taipei. Toyota Motor Corp., which gets about 30 percent of sales from North America, gained 0.9 percent to 3,360 yen in Tokyo. Techtronic Industries Co., the maker of Hoover vacuum cleaners and Ryobi power tools, advanced 1.2 percent to HK$10.54 in Hong Kong.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.1 percent this year through yesterday, compared with gains of 5.6 percent by the S&P 500 and 1 percent by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 13.6 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.7 times for the S&P 500 and 11.2 times for the Stoxx 600.

A gauge of finance companies posted the biggest advance among the 10 industry groups in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. All but three of the sub-indexes gained.

Chinese Banks Climb

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the nation’s biggest lender, rose 1.1 percent to HK$6.45 in Hong Kong. The company said full-year net income increased 28 percent to 165.2 billion yuan ($25.2 billion) from a year earlier. That exceeded the 163.8 billion yuan average estimate of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest lender, climbed 2.2 percent to HK$8.50 after saying full-year net income rose 30 percent to 39 billion yuan from a year earlier. That beat the 38 billion yuan average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Energy companies fell after crude oil for May delivery declined 0.5 percent to settle at $104.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Inpex Corp., Japan’s biggest energy explorer, lost 1 percent to 626,000 yen. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL), Australia’s No. 2 oil and gas producer, sank 1.9 percent to A$46.86.

Sarkozy Backs IMF as Currency Enforcer at G-20 China Opening

The International Monetary Fund should get the power to police rules envisioned to promote currency-market stability, French President Nicolas Sarkozy told Group of 20 finance chiefs in Nanjing, China.
“Greater supervision by the IMF” of nations’ balance of payments and reserves “appears indispensible,” Sarkozy said today in remarks prepared for a one-day seminar that he initiated. “France supports modifying the IMF’s status to expand its oversight capacity.”

With France holding the presidency of the G-20 this year, Sarkozy has made the monetary system one of his priorities. In his opening remarks, he omitted mention of the two biggest economies -- the U.S. and China -- whose policy makers have been criticized for keeping their currencies weak to promote growth.
Sarkozy sought to summon the G-20’s unity at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. Now, nations pursuing their own interests risked a “proliferation of unilateral measures during crises resulting in a new financial protectionism in which all economies suffer,” he said.

The conference, attended by economists including Nobel laureate Robert Mundell and Jim O’Neill, chairman of Global Sachs Asset Management, is intended to lay the groundwork for an agreement at the G-20 summit in Cannes, France, in November that would lead to a more “stable and resilient” monetary order, said the French leader, who is up for re-election next year.

G-20 Disputes

The last gathering of G-20 finance ministers in February underscored the difficulties, with China fighting against the inclusion of foreign-exchange reserves as a yardstick for gauging global imbalances. Sarkozy views China’s decision to host the conference as a first step toward a more flexible yuan that should result in its inclusion in the IMF’s currency basket, known as Special Drawing Rights, according to a French official who spoke to reporters before the gathering.

Chinese President Hu Jintao told Sarkozy yesterday in Beijing that China views the internationalization of the yuan as inevitable, with only the pace of the move in question, the French official said.
In promoting the IMF’s role, Sarkozy would boost the power and prestige of a potential presidential challenger in 2012, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss Kahn. Strauss-Kahn, a former Socialist finance minister who has yet to announce his intentions, would be the top vote-getter, French polls show.
--James Hertling. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Stephanie Phang.

Gold Heads for Longest Quarterly Winning Streak Since 1979 on Haven Demand

Gold headed for a 10th straight quarterly rise, the longest in three decades, as turmoil in the Middle East, fighting in Libya and Japan’s nuclear crisis increased demand for an investment haven.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,424.88 an ounce at 1:10 p.m. in Melbourne, taking the quarterly gain to 0.3 percent. The June-delivery contract in New York was also little changed at $1,425.40, heading for a 0.3 percent quarterly rise.

“There is a lot of uncertainty around the globe in terms of political events,” David Lennox, a Sydney-based resource analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone today. Fighting could escalate in Libya, while there is uncertainty surrounding Bahrain and the nuclear crisis in Japan, he said.


Gold reached a record $1,447.82 an ounce on March 24 amid tension in northern Africa and the Middle East and after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed thousands and caused radiation to leak from a nuclear plant. Libyan rebels were forced to retreat this week by troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after earlier advances were helped by U.S.-led air strikes.
“We are now starting to see that the air strikes may not be completely effective against Qaddafi, and that’s going to raise the next bar,” Lennox said.

Gold advanced for nine consecutive quarters through Dec. 31, 2010, partly because investors bought the metal as a hedge against dollar and euro weakness. Gains were limited this quarter on signs the U.S. economy is improving, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets like stocks.

Payroll Gains

Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers in March, a sign the labor market may be strengthening, according to figures from ADP Employer Services yesterday. Employment increased by a revised 208,000 in February, the report, based on payrolls, showed.

Economists project a Labor Department report tomorrow will show the jobless rate held at 8.9 percent. It has fallen by 0.9 percentage point over the last three months, the biggest decline since 1983.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.7 percent yesterday and is up 5.6 percent this quarter.
“Buoyant equities and a positive U.S. ADP employment report removed some of the safe-haven premium” in the gold market, Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today.

Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.3 percent to $37.5687 an ounce, heading for a 21 percent rise this quarter, the ninth straight quarterly gain. The metal has more than doubled in the past year and reached a 31-year high of $38.165 on March 24.
Immediate-delivery platinum was little changed at $1,773.25 an ounce and palladium gained 0.5 percent to $757 an ounce.

Gold today :

Harga emas bergerak flat di kisaran antara resistance 1421.99 dan support 1414.15. Bias menjadi netral untuk sementara. Pecahnya resistance di 1421.99 berpotensi mengangkat harga emas untuk menguji area resistance selanjutnya yang berada di 1431.68. Sebaliknya, penembusan support di 1414.15 diperkirakan akan memicu koreksi untuk menguji kembali area support di 1406.31.

Gold: libya dan safe haven

Emas menguat akibat berlanjutnya pertempuran di Libya dan kekhawatiran utang Eropa mendongkrak permintaan terhadap aset safe haven. Pergerakan pemberontak di Sirte terhenti oleh serangan pasukan pendukung Muammar Qaddafi's. Standard & Poor's kemarin pangkas peringkat kredit Yunani dan Portugal.

"Faktor geopolitik masih mainkan peran," papar Peter Fertig, petinggi Quantitative Commodity Research. "Situasi Libya jauh dari selesai dan ada ketidakpastian terhadap masalah utang Eropa.” Di London, pemimpin koalisi anti-Qaddafi berjanji untuk bertindak lebih lanjut. Gejolak di Timur Tengah dan Afrika utara makin memanas dalam dua bulan terakhir. Kabinet pemerintahan Syria telah mengundurkan diri sebagai wujud protes terhadap kepemimpinan Presiden Bashar al-Assad.

Meskipun demikian, reli mungkin terbatas seiring bank sentral negara maju mulai bersiap untuk ketatkan kebijakan moneter. “Pasar cukup mixed sekarang, mungkin pergerakan akan ranging untuk sementara waktu di kisaran $1410 -$1420,” papar  dealer Hong Kong yang diwawancarai Reuters.

Sektor Perumahan AS Bagai Bom Waktu

Sektor hunian Amerika Serikat (AS) masih belum menemukan momentum kebangkitan. Pasca krisis mortgage, nilai rumah tak kunjung menghampiri level ideal. Harga rumah bulan Januari bahkan anjlok untuk bulan ke-6 secara beruntun, mengindikasikan double-dip.

Indeks harga rumah versi S&P/Case-Shiller turun 3,1% (YoY), merapat ke level terndah yang dicapai pada April 2009. Sebelumnya, salah satu parameter perumahan juga dirilis negatif. Penjualan existing homes turun nyaris 10% pada bulan Februari, sedangkan penjualan rumah baru sudah menyentuh rekor terendah.

Dari 20 wilayah yang diteliti, hanya Washington dan San Diego yang mencetak kenaikan harga rumah, masing-masing 3,6% dan 0,1%. Sementara harga di Phoenix, Detroit dan Minneapolis anjlok dalam (9,1% - 8,1% dan 7,6%).

Beberapa pengamat ekonomi AS memperlihatkan pesimisme akan adanya prospek pemulihan. Berikut ini adalah pandangan analis yang dilansir dari CNN serta berbagai sumber:

1. David M. Blitzer, S&P

"Januari sangat buruk, tidak ada harapan dalam waktu dekat."

Blitzer melihat resesi sektor perumahan belum berakhir. Tidak ada satu pun statistik saat ini yang bisa memicu optimisme. Ketakutan terbesar cuma satu, yakni resesi double dip jilid baru.

2. Pat Newport, Analis Perumahan IHS Global Insight

"Begitu banyak rumah di luar sana, itulah mengapa harga jadi turun."

Newport melihat banyaknya stok hunian membuat harga sangat rendah. Meski demikian, konsumen masih sangat selektif dalam membeli tempat tinggal. Penurunan akan terus berlanjut sepanjang tahun ini, sehingga double dip hanya tinggal hitungan bulan.

3. Anthony Sanders, Direktur Kewirausahaan Real Estat, Universitas George Mason

"Jika suku bunga naik, maka itu bisa jadi awal dari double dip."

Harga rumah sudah jatuh di tengah suku bunga ekstra rendah. Seharusnya biaya bulanan konsumen jadi lebih efisien karena hal itu. Apabila the Fed benar menaikkan suku bunga, entah bagaimana daya beli warga nantinya.

Sterling Today : konsolidasi

Sterling bergerak dalam fase konsolidasi di kisaran antara 1.6037 sebagai resistance dan 1.5935 sebagai support. Selain itu, ada support di 1.5983 yang tengah diuji saat ini, di mana tembusnya support tersebut diperkirakan akan membawa sterling ke area 1.5935 terhadap USD.

Secara umum, bias adalah netral untuk saat ini. Namun pecahnya resistance di 1.6037 berpotensi memicu momentum bullish dan menyebabkan rebound hingga ke area 1.6092 – 1.6140

Uero Today : Potensi Koreksi Bearish

Euro masih berada dalam fase koreksi dan terlihat bergerak di dalam channel bearish minor yang berwarna oranye. Bias untuk jangka pendek masih bearish di mana penembusan support yang berada di 1.4057 berpotensi diikuti pergerakan ke area support selanjutnya di 1.3999. Area ini merupakan area support yang kuat karena merupakan titik pertemuan dengan trendline utama yang memperlihatkan bahwa trend masih naik untuk jangka panjang. Jika trendline tersebut tembus, koreksi bisa semakin dalam hingga ke 1.3868.

Akan tetapi perlu diingat bahwa trend jangka panjang masih naik. Penembusan di atas area channel minor tersebut di atas akan berpotensi membentuk pola bullish flag dan pergerakan selanjutnya diperkirakan ke area 1.4247. 

 

 

Kritik G-20 Atas Fed Mungkin Reda Pada Pertemuan di Cina

Para pemimpin negara-negara G20 mungkin akan membatasi kritik yang tertuju pada Federal Reserve yang membanjiri dunia dengan dana ketika mereka bertemu di Cina seiring hadirnya krisis hutang Eropa dan bencana di Jepang.
 

Menteri Keuangan AS, Timothy F. Geithner, Presiden Perancis Nicolas Sarkozy, Wakil Perdana Menteri Cina, Wang Qishan dan gubernur ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet akan berkumpul di Nanjing untuk seminar sehari terkait sistem moneter internasional besok. Cina, Brazil dan Korea Selatan menolak program $600 miliar Feds untuk mengendalikan pergerakan dollar dan mengisi kelebihan aset di negara-negara berkembang.

 

Kritik untuk kebijakan moneter AS “sudah bukan barang baru”, dikatakan Chris Rupkey, seorang chief financial economist dari Bank of Tokyo – Mitsubishi UFJ di New York. “Para pemimpin dunia dan pejabat moneter memiliki hal yang lebih penting untuk dibahas”.

Waspadai Perubahan Peta Ekonomi!

Ketidakpastian ekonomi masih menghiasi lantai bursa. Mulai dari situasi politik kawasan, geliat emerging markets hingga bencana alam Asia, semua menjadi kerikil tajam bagi pelaku pasar finansial. Tim Riset Wealth Management UBS memaparkan beberapa poin penting yang harus diwaspadai investor. Berikut adalah kutipan outlook lembaga keuangan tersebut.



Inflasi memicu kenaikan suku bunga

Babak baru dari siklus ekonomi saat ini adalah kenaikan suku bunga. Emerging markets sudah memulai kebijakan tersebut dan otoritas eropa mula membuka kemungkinan serupa. ECB tampaknya segera menyesuaikan tingkat suku bunga acuan sepanjang semester awal 2011. Demikian pula dengan Bank of England.

Lonjakan harga, terutama komponen pangan, menimbulkan masalah baru di banyak pasar emerging. Kenaikan harga hasil bumi telah membuat tingkat inflasi konsisten meninggi.

Penyesuaian suku bunga untuk meredam inflasi merupakan langkah paling populer yang bisa dilakukan bank sentral dunia. Di samping itu, kenaikan interest rate juga bertujuan untuk menjaga stabilitas obligasi pemerintah.

Saham masih jadi pilihan

Meski performa saham tiap bursa regional cenderung mixed di awal 2011, aset ini masih sangat diminati investor. Konflik Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara telah memicu kegugupan pasar, tetapi tren harga saham tetap positif. Sebagaimana terlihat sejauh ini pada bursa saham Amerika Serikat. Khusus bagi investor aset berbasis Eropa, direkomendasikan untuk menjual saham. Alihkan portofolio ke aset yang terafiliasi dengan struktur ekspor dan permintaan kuat, misalnya Jerman.

Emerging Markets semakin kompleks

Saham di negara perekonomian baru relatif lesu sepanjang 2011. Kenaikan harga pangan dan bahan bakar telah memicu inflasi dan kecemasan investasi. Fenomena ini tampaknya rawan mengikis kinerja ekonomi emerging markets untuk kuartal II nanti. Namun prospek pertumbuhan jangka panjang belum akan pudar. Kami memilih saham yang diuntungkan oleh konsumsi besar di AS. Di antaranya adalah eksportir besar seperti Taiwan, Korea Selatan dan Meksiko. Sedangkan China masih jadi favorit jangka panjang dan Rusia cukup prospektif karena potensi minyaknya.

Investasi berbasis komoditi akan cerah

Tensi ketegangan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara akan menjaga harga minyak. Isu-isu tersebut sering memberi pengaruh buruk dalam jangka pendek bagi harga ekuitas dan obligasi global. Investor disarankan untuk mengalihkan asetnya ke sektor yang bisa konsisten memberi hasil, seperti energi dan material. Emas adalah salah satu pemberi nilai terbaik, khususnya di tengah ketidakpastian.


Obligasi Pilihan

Return dari obligasi pemerintah anggota G7 tidak merefleksikan resiko kredit dan suku bunga sesungguhnya. Kami rekomendasikan untuk beralih ke aset saham atau obligasi yang terpilih. Surat hutang korporasi bisa dijadikan alternatif baru, terutama yang bersifat multinasional. Sektor industri dan utilisasi bisa dipilih, seraya menghindari perusahaan berbasis finansial. Sebagai tambahan, investor bisa mempertimbangkan obligasi emerging markets. Patut diingat bahwa suku bunga global lebih berpihak pada obligasi jangka pendek dan menengah.

Hangseng Today

Merosotnya minat resiko dan minimnya katalisator baru membuat Hang Seng bergerak rangebound.

Di lihat dari grafik MACD dan stockhastic, Hang Seng masih berpotensi naik ke level 23426. Sementara level support Hang Seng berada di kisaran 23200, kemudian 23130 dan 23050.

Resistance Level : 23426, 23600, 23900

Support Level       : 23200, 23130, 23050

Trading Range     : 23050 - 23900

Trend                      : Rangebound

Emas Menguat di Tengah Kecemasan

Emas menguat hari Rabu terkait stabilnya bursa saham, tetapi para investor masih resah setelah mengemukanya pembicaraan bahwa beberapa bank sentral akan mulai melakukan pengetatan kebijakan mometer secepatnya, sebuah pergerakan yang mungkin akan menahan pesona emas sebagai lindung nilai menghadapi inflasi.

Spot emas bertambah $2.35 per ons ke level $1,418.30 per ons, bertahan kuat dibawah tingginya selama ini disekitar $1.447 yang terjadi minggu lalu. Emas telah turun 0.1% hari Selasa seiring pembicaraan beberapa bank sentral yang melakukan pengetatan kebijakan moneter memicu penjualan.

 

Kontrak emas AS untuk bulan April naik $2.7 per ons ke level $1,418.9 per ons.

Emas Merosot Dalam Empat Hari Berturut

Emas berjangka melemah lagi dalam empat hari berturut, seiring dengan aksi profit taking para pelaku pasar paska meraih rekor tertinggi baru mendekati level $1450 per troy ons beberapa hari lalu.

 

Spekulasi kini mulai terdiskon dalam harga atas potensi kenaikan bunga ECB, ditambah rumor resolusi Libya setelah pasukan oposisi berhasil merebut kembali beberapa kota penting di Libya telah mengurangi permintaan safe haven seperti emas.

 

Berdasarkan studi teknikal, secara keseluruhan Emas masih dalam pola konsolidasi yang telah berlangsung sejak Q4-2010.  Namun bias intraday Emas masih kebawah mengincar area support 1392 – 1376 - 1360. Anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut ke area 1309.10 – 1337.40. Slow stochastic cross pada area overbought mengindikasikan resisten kuat pada fase ini terletak di area 1444.

Outlook Bunga Grogoti Emas

Emas melemah akibat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga mulai grogoti sentimen; investor juga terlihat berhati-hati setelah emas gagal pertahankan rekor tinggi pekan lalu. Meskipun demikian, lemahnya dollar, kerusuhan Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah, serta krisis utang zona-euro utang masih topang logam mulia.

"Emas terlihat kesulitan cetak harga tertinggi baru," ungkap analis Macquarie, Hayden Atkins. "Tingginya harga minyak, kerusuhan Timur Tengah, dan masalah utang Eropa belum cukup berikan tenaga reli kembali.”

Prospek kenaikan suku bunga kini mulai bayangi outlook emas. Kenaikan suku bunga dapat tingkatkan biaya berinvestasi di logam mulia sehingga kurangi minat investor. Komentar hawkish Fed’s Bullard dan Fed’s Plosser indikasi akan segera berakhirnya program pembelian obligasi Federal Reserve. Pernyataan ECB’s Trichet juga tegaskan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga ECB pada pertemuan 7 April. "Perbaikan ekonomi AS yang diikuti dengan berakhirnya program Quantitative Easing Fed akan picu kenaikan suku bunga riil AS secara bertahap untuk tahun 2011," tulis Goldman Sachs. "Jika suku bunga riil kembali ke level Februari 1,3% maka reli emas akan melambat.”

Sterling Today

Terlihat potensi terbentuknya pola inverse head and shoulders di grafik 1 jam. Konfirmasinya adalah penembusan area neckline, namun akan lebih meyakinkan jika resistance yang berada di 1.6037 juga tembus. Jika hal itu terjadi, bias akan menjadi bullish dengan perkiraan pergerakan ke area 1.6092 atau bahkan 1.6140.

Area support di 1.5983 juga perlu diperhatikan, karena peluang terbentuknya pola inverse head and shoulders ini akan semakin kecil jika support tersebut pecah dan kemungkinan harga akan bergerak menguji kembali area 1.5935. 

 

 

Uero Today

Bias untuk jangka pendek bagi EURUSD bearish saat ini, setelah berhasil menembus area accelerating trendline yang terlihat sebagai garis putus-putus di grafik 4 jam. Pergerakan diperkirakan akan menuju ke area support di 1.3999.

Akan tetapi bias akan kembali berubah menjadi bullish jika resistance yang berada di 1.4130 tembus, dengan estimasi pergerakan naik untuk kembali menguji area 1.4247. Apalagi stochastic dan CCI 4 jam masih mempertahankan sinyal bullish. Oleh karena itu, bisa dikatakan bahwa resistance di 1.4130 adalah level kunci untuk saat ini.

Euro Dihantui Krisis Hutang, Sterling Dihambat Bunga

Pekan ini isu krisis hutang Eropa masih akan terus membayangi penguatan Euro dan mata uang ini bisa tenggelam lagi bila muncul berita penurunan peringkat untuk negara Spanyol dari ketiga lembaga pemeringkat kredit, S&P, Moody’s dan Fitch.

Namun spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga ECB yang segera diputuskan di bulan April dapat membuat Euro menguat lagi dengan catatan data CPI zona euro pada Kamis nanti muncul lebih baik dari prediksi 2,3%.

 

Sementara di Inggris, kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga masih terhambat oleh isu pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris yang belum stabil. Pekan ini data indeks manufaktur PMI akan menjadi sorotan pasar. Bila angka indeks keluar lebih bagus dari 60.6 akan meningkatkan ekspektasi terhadap kenaikan suku bunga BoE dalam waktu dekat.

 

Data Ekonomi Penting Minggu Ini 

Selasa 29 Maret, 2011

-          Swiss                : UBS Consumption Indicator

-          Eropa                : GfK German Consumer Climate, German Prelim CPI m/m

-          Inggris              : Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Net Lending to Individuals m/m,

                                       Final Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply m/m,

                                       Revised Business Investment q/q

-          AS                      : S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence

 

Rabu 30 Maret, 2011

-          Inggris             : Index of Services 3m/3m, CBI Realized Sales

-          Swiss               : KOF Economic Barometer

-          AS                    : Challenger Job Cuts y/y, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change,

                                      Crude Oil Inventories

 

Kamis 31 Maret, 2011

-       Inggris             : GfK Consumer Confidence

-       Eropa               : German Unemployment Change, CPI Flash Estimate y/y

-       Inggris             : BOE Credit Conditions Survey

-       AS                    : Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Factory Orders m/m

Jumat 01 April, 2011

-       Jepang              : Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

-       China                 : Manufacturing PMI, HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

-       Inggris               : Halifax HPI m/m, Manufacturing PMI

-       Swiss                 : Retail Sales y/y, SVME PMI

-       Eropa                 : Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate

-       AS                      : Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate,

                                    ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m

 

Emas Tunggu Data AS

Spot emas di $1,417.20/ons, turun $3.70 sejak penutupan New York setelah di hari Senin logam mulia diperdagangkan sampai $1,424.70 dengan level terendah di $1,409.60.

Perdagangan pekan ini bergantung pada data perekonomian AS, menurut MF Global. "Sinyal melambannya pemulihan ekonomi menguntungkan komoditi karena kebijakan moneter akan tetap akomodatif. Emas juga dapat terdorong oleh resiko hutang Eropa, berlanjutnya pergolakan di Timur Tengah dan dimulainya produksi auto dan juga tendensi dari kenaikan harga emas yang positif," katanya. 

Data perekonomian AS yang kuat dan tekanan pada kebijakan moneter akan membebani emas, katanya. Data perekonomian AS hari ini diantaranya S&P/Case-Shiller dan indeks harga rumah pukul 20.00 WIB dan kepercayaan konsumen AS pada ukul 21.00.

Hangseng Today : Ranging di Kisaran 23000-an

Secara teknikal bias Hang Seng masih terlihat netral untuk jangka pendek, dan indeks terperangkap dalam range area 22865 – 23210. Dan dibutuhkan break ke atas atau ke bawah area ini untuk menentukan arah yang lebih jelas bagi indeks Hang Seng.

 

Untuk rebound-nya, perlu upaya tembus resisten terdekat 23120 guna konfirmasi lebih lanjut menuju 23210 dan 23320. Sementara pecah dibawah 22960 akan memicu bearish lanjutan ke target 22865 hingga 22680. 

 

 

 

Resistance Level : 23120, 23210, 23320

Support Level      : 22960, 22865, 22680

Trading Range     : 22865 – 23210     

 

Business Highlights from US

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are earning and spending more, but much of the extra money is going down their gas tanks. Gas prices have drained more than half the extra cash Americans are getting this year from a cut in Social Security taxes.

Unlike some other kinds of spending, paying more for gas doesn't help the economy much. Most of the money goes overseas, and higher prices leave people with less money to buy appliances, computers, plane tickets and other things that can be postponed.

Consumer spending jumped 0.7 percent last month, and personal incomes rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Monday. Both gains reflected the cut of two percentage points in the Social Security tax, raising take-home pay.

They also illustrated how higher gas prices are stressing household budgets. After adjusting for inflation, spending rose just 0.3 percent. After-tax incomes fell 0.1 percent.

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Consumer spending rose

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in four months in February, though some of the increase was driven by higher gas prices. The National Association of Realtors said more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in February than economists were expecting. Sales rose in every region but the Northeast, but remained below what is considered a healthy level.

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EBay to buy GSI Commerce for $2.4 billion

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Online marketplace operator EBay said Monday that it will pay $2.4 billion for GSI Commerce, which operates websites for retailers like Toys R Us and Bath & Body Works.

EBay Inc., which runs its namesake site where users buy and sell items through auctions and fixed-price "Buy it Now" formats as well as online payments service PayPal, hopes the acquisition will bolster its ability to connect buyers and sellers around the world. It could also help it become more of a threat to Amazon.com Inc.

GSI runs websites, packs and ships products and offers interactive marketing services to a variety of retailers. It has long-term contracts with 180 retailers, including Radio Shack, Ace Hardware and American Eagle Outfitters.

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More people signed contracts to buy homes in Feb.

WASHINGTON (AP) — More Americans signed contracts to buy homes in February, but sales were uneven across the country and not enough to signal a rebound in the housing market.

Sales agreements for homes rose 2.1 percent last month to a reading of 90.8, according to the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index released Monday. Sales rose in every region but the Northeast.

Signings were 19.6 percent above June's index reading, the low point since the housing bust. Still, the index is below 100, which is considered a healthy level. The last time it reached that point was in April, the final month people could qualify for a home-buying tax credit.

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Harry & David files for Chapter 11 protection

Fruit basket and gift seller Harry & David filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday, brought down by a weak economy and a proliferation of competitors.

The Medford, Ore., company agreed with a majority of its senior creditors on a reorganization plan that will eliminate "substantial" debt and provide financing to restructure its balance sheet, according to court documents.

Harry & David Holdings Inc., which grew out of an orchard business about a century ago, has been struggling as businesses slashed corporate gift budgets and consumers cut spending in the weak economy. It relies on discretionary spending that's often the first to get cut from household and business budgets. Online competitors have also grown significantly.

The retailer expects to continue operating during the reorganization process.

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Japanese nuke utility apologizes again and again

TOKYO (AP) — The utility behind Japan's biggest nuclear plant disaster can't seem to get much right.

The obviously harried officials from Tokyo Electric Power Co. have repeatedly announced botched radiation readings, corrected themselves over and over and indulged in seemingly endless rounds of apologies.

Every few days, Japan's nuclear safety industry scolds them to "to take steps to prevent a recurrence of similar mistakes."

The bumbling offers alarming insight into the embarrassing failure of crisis management at the nation's top utility, which rakes in 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) in annual sales.

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Latest airfare increase fails over weekend

DALLAS (AP) — The airlines' latest effort to broadly raise U.S. fares by $10 per round trip has crumbled as discount carriers like Southwest decided not to raise their prices.

After several successful price increases from December through February, two efforts to raise fares this month have died, raising questions about how much consumers are willing to pay for travel.

United and Continental started the push for another fare increase last week and were joined by Delta, American and US Airways. But low-cost airlines never went along, and by Monday afternoon US Airways joined other large airlines in dropping the fare hike, making the collapse complete.

It's unclear whether consumer demand is too weak to absorb more price increases, or whether the recent failed price hikes are merely a pause before fares rise again heading into the peak summer travel season.

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Buffett's firm defends valuation of 5 stocks

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett's company offered a strong endorsement of five stocks it holds as part of discussions with regulators, saying it believes Wells Fargo & Co., Kraft Foods Inc., Sanofi-Aventis, Swiss Re and US Bancorp are all undervalued.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. on Monday filed copies of letters it had exchanged with the Securities and Exchange Commission over the past several months.

Regulators had questioned whether Berkshire should write down the value of those investments because their stock prices had fallen since Buffett's company first bought the shares and remained below Berkshire's cost for more than a year. Berkshire resisted because company officials believe all five stocks will rebound and Berkshire has no immediate plans to sell them at the current lower prices.

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NY Times begins charging for digital access

NEW YORK (AP) — The New York Times began charging Monday for full access to its website and mobile services.

The third-largest U.S. newspaper is charging $15 every four weeks, or $195 a year, to read more than 20 articles a month on its website. That fee also covers a subscription on the newspaper's software for smartphones. The new fees kicked in at about 2 p.m. EDT.

Readers who want unlimited access on the website and the Times' software for Apple Inc.'s iPad tablet computer have to pay $20 every four weeks, or $260 annually. A digital subscription covering the website and both mobile options costs $35 every four weeks, or $455 annually.

The New York Times Co. is charging for digital access because online advertising revenue hasn't grown fast enough to offset losses in print ads.