Sabtu, 12 Maret 2011

Yen Jepang


Yen jatuh dan kemudian meroket lebih tinggi setelah gempa bumi yang dahsyat melanda Jepang awal pagi ini, dan pedagang berharap banyak choppiness sebagai hari terungkap. [JPY = X 81,85 -0,06 (-0,07%)]

tentu saja reaksi awal Pedagang 'adalah kejutan - - tapi yen lebih dari dibuat jatuh awalnya karena investor terfokus pada bagaimana yen dilakukan setelah gempa tahun 1995 di Kobe.

reaksi awal investor adalah bahwa gempa akan mempengaruhi yen dengan cara yang sama gempa bumi terbaru Selandia Baru terkena kiwi, namun bencana ini begitu jauh lebih besar bahwa pola tersebut tidak akan terus, Dennis Gartman dari Surat Gartman mengatakan kepada CNBC's Nicole Lapin.

"Uang akan dipulangkan kembali ke Jepang untuk membayar ganti rugi," memprediksi ia "Ini repatriasi yang akan diperlukan untuk menjaga dampak yen pada nilai-nilai di sana.".

Tapi bertentangan dengan Gartman, Paresh Upadhyaya, kepala Amerika-10 strategi mata uang G pada Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research [BAC 14,38 0,12 (0,84%)] berkata:

"Saya kira ada reaksi brengsek lutut Investor ingin menjual dolar / yen berpikir bahwa repatriasi aliran dan aliran reasuransi bisa mendorong dollar / yen lebih rendah.. Tapi saya ragu pada bahwa apakah yang berkelanjutan. Jika kita istirahat 80 pada dolar / yen, hal ini bisa berlari Tapi aku tidak berharap Bank of Jepang untuk mengambil langkah-langkah yang dramatis.. Dan jika mereka melakukannya akan menjadi stimulus lebih lanjut untuk perekonomian, dan yang hanya dapat positif bagi dolar / yen. Jika ada sesuatu yang perbedaan suku bunga bekerja dalam mendukung yen yang lebih lemah, tidak kuat saya ragu itu bisa pergi lestari lebih rendah.. "

B. Andrew Busch, kontributor Uang In Motion dan mata uang global dan strategi kebijakan publik dari BMO Capital Markets, mengatakan kepada saya bahwa investor harus menentukan horizon waktu mereka ketika mempertimbangkan bagaimana untuk perdagangan yen hari ini.

"Kami berada dalam sedikit lahan tak bertuan sekarang, mencoba untuk mencari tahu apa yang harus dilakukan," katanya. "Jelas, Jepang berada di tengah-tengah mimpi buruk fiskal, dan ini tidak akan membantu mereka. Ini seperti reaksi campuran. Di satu sisi, Anda katakan Anda bisa benar-benar korslet Jepang. Namun di sisi lain, sentimen risiko-off jangka pendek tidak akan membuat sangat banyak menjual. "

Busch mengatakan ia akan masih pendek yen terhadap dolar AS - tetapi ia akan menunggu. "Anda mungkin akan mendapatkan kesempatan untuk masuk ke posisi di bawah 81.5. Saya tidak hink cerita ini berakhir atau belum. "

Rebecca Patterson, kepala global mata uang dan komoditas di JPMorgan's bank [JPM 45,74 0,21 (0,46%)] swasta berkata:

"Dampak yen ini tidak mudah. ​​Namun, perasaan kita adalah bahwa setiap kekuatan yen jangka dekat yang akan muncul akan ditentang oleh Bank of Japan dan bahwa pandangan kami jangka panjang untuk kelemahan yen tetap utuh.

Menyatukan semuanya, pandangan kami adalah bahwa yen adalah mata uang kita ingin menjual di demonstrasi. Dukungan teknis berikutnya kunci untuk USD / JPY datang di sekitar 81,42-81,57. Di bawah sana, rendahnya Januari adalah 80,93-81,10. Kami akan mempertimbangkan mencari untuk membeli USD / JPY sekitar yang rendah (81,0), mungkin dengan kerugian-stop sekitar 78. "

investor ritel Jepang juga memainkan peran penting dalam menopang yen, menurut Marc Chandler, kepala strategi mata uang global di Brown Brothers Harriman. Mereka adalah pemain utama di pasar valuta asing - Bank for International Settlements memperkirakan bahwa jumlah mereka sekitar seperempat perdagangan spot di FX di Jepang - dan sebagai Chandler mengatakan kepada saya, "Mereka telah membawa posisi dolar yang sangat besar panjang. Seharusnya hari sebelumnya mereka menjual dolar mereka sebelumnya membeli dan membeli yen. Mereka membebaskan investasi - mereka tidak tahu apa yang akan terjadi. Mereka ingin menyimpan uang mereka lebih dekat dengan mereka. "

Daybreak Reveals Huge Devastation in Japan

Japan confronted devastation along its northeastern coast on Saturday, with fires raging and parts of some cities under water after a massive earthquake and tsunami that likely killed at least 1,000 people.
Japan earthquake
Fukushima Minpo

Daybreak revealed the full extent of the damage from Friday's 8.9 magnitude earthquake — the strongest in Japan since records began — 10-meter high tsunami it sent surging into cities and villages, sweeping away everything in its path.

"This is likely to be a humanitarian relief operation of epic proportions," Japan expert Sheila Smith of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a commentary.
In one of the worst-hit residential areas, people buried under rubble could be heard calling out "help" and "when are we going to be rescued," Kyodo news agency reported. TV footage showed staff at one hospital waving banners with the words "Food" and "HELP" from a rooftop. 

In Tokyo, office workers who were stranded in the city after the quake forced the subway system to close early slept alongside the homeless at one station. Scores of men in suits lay on newspapers, using their briefcases as pillows. 

The government warned there could be a small radiation leak from a nuclear reactor whose cooling system was knocked out by the quake. 

Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered an evacuation zone around the plant be expanded to 10 km (6 miles) from 3 km. Some 3,000 people had earlier been moved out of harm's way. 

Underscoring concerns about the Fukushima plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, U.S. officials said Japan had asked for coolant to avert a rise in the temperature of its nuclear rods, but ultimately handled the matter on its own. Officials said a leak was still possible because pressure would have to be released.
The unfolding natural disaster prompted offers of search and rescue help from 45 countries.
China said rescuers were ready to help with quake relief while President Barack Obama told Kan the United States would assist in any way. 

The northeastern Japanese city of Kesennuma, with a population of 74,000, was hit by widespread fires and one-third of the city was under water, Jiji news agency said on Saturday.
The airport in the city of Sendai, home to one million people, was on fire, it added. 

TV footage from Friday showed a muddy torrent of water carrying cars and wrecked homes at high speed across farmland near Sendai, 300 km (180 miles) northeast of Tokyo. Ships had been flung onto a harbour wharf, where they lay helplessly on their side. 

Boats, cars and trucks were tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town of Kamaichi in northern Japan. Kyodo news agency reported that contact had been lost with four trains in the coastal area. 

Japanese politicians pushed for an emergency budget to fund relief efforts after Kan asked them to "save the country," Kyodo news agency reported. Japan is already the most heavily indebted major economy in the world, meaning any funding efforts would be closely scrutinised by financial markets. 

Domestic media said the death toll was expected to exceed 1,000, most of whom appeared to have drowned by churning waters. Even in a nation accustomed to earthquakes, the devastation was shocking. 


CNBC.com

"A big area of Sendai city near the coast, is flooded. We are hearing that people who were evacuated are stranded," said Rie Sugimoto, a reporter for NHK television in Sendai.

"About 140 people, including children, were rushed to an elementary school and are on the rooftop but they are surrounded by water and have nowhere else to go." 

Japan has prided itself on its speedy tsunami warning system, which has been upgraded several times since its inception in 1952, including after a 7.8 magnitude quake triggered a 30-metre high wave before a warning was given. 

The country has also built countless breakwaters and floodgates to protect ports and coastal areas, although experts said they might not have been enough to prevent disasters such as the one that struck on Friday.
"I was unable stay on my feet because of the violent shaking. The aftershocks gave us no reprieve. Then the tsunamis came when we tried to run for cover. It was the strongest quake I experienced," a woman with a baby on her back told television in northern Japan. 

Fires Across the Coast 

The quake, the most powerful since Japan started keeping records 140 years ago, sparked at least 80 fires in cities and towns along the coast, Kyodo said. 


Japan earthquake

Natori city , Miyagi

Other Japanese nuclear power plants and oil refineries were shut down and one refinery was ablaze.

Auto plants, electronics factories and refineries shut, roads buckled and power to millions of homes and businesses was knocked out. Several airports, including Tokyo's Narita, were closed and rail services halted. All ports were shut. 

The central bank said it would cut short a two-day policy review scheduled for next week to one day on Monday and promised to do its utmost to ensure financial market stability.

The disaster occurred as the world's third-largest economy had been showing signs of reviving from an economic contraction in the final quarter of last year. It raised the prospect of major disruptions for many key businesses and a massive repair bill running into tens of billions of dollars.
The tsunami alerts revived memories of the giant waves that struck Asia in 2004.

Warnings were issued for countries to the west of Japan and across the Pacific as far away as Colombia and Peru, but the tsunami dissipated as it sped across the ocean and worst fears in the Americas were not realised. 

The earthquake was the fifth most powerful to hit the world in the past century. 

The quake surpasses the Great Kanto quake of Sept. 1, 1923, which had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area. The 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage and was the most expensive natural disaster in history. Economic damage from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was estimated at about $10 billion.
Earthquakes are common in Japan, one of the world's most seismically active areas.

Perekonomian Jepang Masih Kuat

Perekonomi jepang jangka panjang negara tersebut tidak akan berdampak masif terhadap prospek perekonomian dan mata uang yen, walaupun baru saja dilanda Gempa 8,9 SR di bagian utara Jepang. Demikian pandangan, Andrew Freris, Senior Investment Strategist Asia dari BNP Paribas.

"Bencana alam umumnya berdampak kecil hingga menengah terhadap pertumbuhan jangka panjang Jepang," ujarnya. Ia mengambil contoh dari tsunami di Thailand tahun 2004 lalu. Ketika itu, perekonomian negara pulih dengan cepat. Demikian pula saat gempa mengguncang Christcgurch, New Zealand. Angka GDP negeri Kiwi hanya akan terkikis beberapa basis poin dari peristiwa tersebut.

Sentimen Konsumen AS

Sentimen konsumen di AS anjlok ke level terendah dalam 4 bulan pada awal Maret seiring kenaikan pada harga bensin, menurut sebuah survei yang dirilis hari jumat. Kendati demikian, rencana belanja nampaknya tidak berubah meskipun tingkat belanja konsumen yang sebenarnya akan berkurang, laporan ini tidak mengindikasikan adanya penurunan, menurut survei terakhir dari Thomson Reuters dan University of Michigan.
Indeks sentimen konsumen di bulan Maret ada pada 68.2 turun dari 77.5 pada bulan Februari. Itu merupakan level terendah sejak Oktober 2010 dan jauh di bawah perkiraan ekonom pada 76.5. "Data cukup mengecewakan. Itu menujukkan akan adanya hambatan bagi tingkat belanja konsumen mengingat kenaikan harga bensin akibat kecemasan di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara," ucap Sean Incremona, ekonom pada 4Cast Ltd di New York.

Gempa Jepang Guncang Wall Street

Wall Street terpuruk akibat lemahnya sentimen konsumen AS dan gempa Jepang yang makin grogoti kepercayaan investor di tengah ketidakpastian situasi di Timur Tengah. Indeks sentimen konsumen AS turun ke level 68.2 untuk bulan Maret, lebih rendah dari publikasi sebelumnya 77.5. Gempa Jepang berhasil picu tsunami yang telah menghantam Hawaii, dan negara lain di sekitar laut Pasifik.

Minyak turun setelah rencana demonstrasi di Arab Saudi tidak begitu terlihat. Ulama dan pemerintah telah melarang aksi demonstrasi, tapi pasar tetap perhatikan apakah ada aksi unjuk rasa di negara pengekspor minyak terbesar di Timur Tengah. Di Libya, pendukung Qaddafi masuki pelabuhan minyak Ras Lanuf dan berjuang untuk kendalikan kota.

Perusahaan mulai nilai kerusakan akibat gempa bumi dan banjir. Nissan laporan kerusakan di empat pabriknya, Toyota bahkan hentikan aktivitas produksi di beberapa pabrik. iPad2, tablet teranyar Apple, mulai dijual hari ini. Saham National Semiconductor dan Aeropostale terjungkal setelah berikan laporan keungan yang mengecewakan. Investor tentunya perhatikan pertemuan Uni Eropa yang membahas kekerasan di Libya dan krisis utang yang melanda zoan-euro.

Irlandia, Yunani Tolak Prasyarat Bailout Jerman

Perdana Menteri Irlandia Enda Kenny menolak prasyarat yang diajukan Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel untuk kurangi beban bailout; ini akan persulit Uni Eropa untuk rumuskan kesepakatan pada pertemuan hari ini. Kenny tolak keinginan Merkel untuk selaraskan tarif pajak perusahaan di wilayah zon-euro. Yunani juga menolak untuk menjual tanah negara demi kurangi biaya pinjaman dana penyelamatan.

Pemimpin Uni Eropa sedang berdebat untuk rumuska paket komprehensif demi selesaikan krisis utang zona-euro, dengan 25 Maret sebagai batas waktu. Yield obligasi pemerintah Yunani, Irlandia, dan Portugal cetak rekor paska pemangkasan peringkat kredit Yunani dan Spanyol minggu ini. Perdana Menteri Portugal, Jose Socrates, bahkan umumkan komitmen untuk pangkas defisit hingga capai batasan Uni Eropa 3% di 2012.

"Ini saat yang kritis bagi Eropa. kegagalan berikan respon yang efektif akan menjadi penyesalan dan harus dibayar mahal," ungkap Pier Carlo Padoan, ekonom OECD. "Saya berharap pemimpin Eropa paham keseriusan situasi yang dihadapi sekarang," papar Menteri Keuangan Portugal Fernando Teixeira Dos Santos di Lisbon. Sementara itu, euro masih lemah pada perdagangan Jumat, diperdagangkan 1.3789 setelah raih 1.3751 di sesi London.

Jumat, 11 Maret 2011

expert gold - high profit: Major tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake

expert gold - high profit: Major tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake: "TOKYO -- A ferocious tsunami spawned by one of the ..."

Major tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake

TOKYO -- A ferocious tsunami spawned by one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded slammed Japan's eastern coast Friday, killing at least 60 people as it swept away boats, cars and homes while widespread fires burned out of control. Tsunami warnings blanketed the entire Pacific, as far away as South America, Canada, Alaska and the entire U.S. West Coast.

The magnitude 8.9 offshore quake unleashed a 23-foot (7-meter) tsunami and was followed by more than 50 aftershocks for hours, many of them of more than magnitude 6.0.
Police said at least 60 people were killed and 56 were missing. The death toll was likely to continue climbing given the scale of the disaster.

Dozens of cities and villages along a 1,300-mile (2,100-kilometer) stretch of coastline were shaken by violent tremors that reached as far away as Tokyo, hundreds of miles (kilometers) from the epicenter.
"The earthquake has caused major damage in broad areas in northern Japan," Prime Minister Naoto Kan said at a news conference.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Japan had closed four nuclear power plants as a precaution. A state of emergency was declared at one of the plants after its cooling system had a mechanical failure. Trouble was reported at two other nuclear plants as well, but there was no radiation leak at any.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the emergency measure at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima was a precaution and that the facility was not in immediate danger.

Even for a country used to earthquakes, this one was of horrific proportions because of the tsunami that crashed ashore, swallowing everything in its path as it surged several miles (kilometers) inland before retreating. The apocalyptic images of surging water broadcast by Japanese TV networks resembled scenes from a Hollywood disaster movie.

Large fishing boats and other sea vessels rode high waves into the cities, slamming against overpasses or scraping under them and snapping power lines along the way. Upturned and partially submerged vehicles were seen bobbing in the water. Ships anchored in ports crashed against each other.
The highways to the worst-hit coastal areas were severely damaged and communications, including telephone lines, were snapped. Train services in northeastern Japan and in Tokyo, which normally serve 10 million people a day, were also suspended, leaving untold numbers stranded in stations or roaming the streets. Tokyo's Narita airport was closed indefinitely.

Jesse Johnson, a native of the U.S. state of Nevada, who lives in Chiba, north of Tokyo, was eating at a sushi restaurant with his wife when the quake hit.
"At first it didn't feel unusual, but then it went on and on. So I got myself and my wife under the table," he told The Associated Press. "I've lived in Japan for 10 years and I've never felt anything like this before. The aftershocks keep coming. It's gotten to the point where I don't know whether it's me shaking or an earthquake."
Waves of muddy waters flowed over farmland near the city of Sendai, carrying buildings, some on fire, inland as cars attempted to drive away. Sendai airport, north of Tokyo, was inundated with cars, trucks, buses and thick mud deposited over its runways. Fires spread through a section of the city, public broadcaster NHK reported.

More than 300 houses were washed away in Ofunato City alone. Television footage showed mangled debris, uprooted trees, upturned cars and shattered timber littering streets.
The tsunami roared over embankments, washing anything in its path inland before reversing directions and carrying the cars, homes and other debris out to sea. Flames shot from some of the houses, probably because of burst gas pipes.

"Our initial assessment indicates that there has already been enormous damage," Edano said. "We will make maximum relief effort based on that assessment."
He said the Defense Ministry was sending troops to the quake-hit region. A utility aircraft and several helicopters were on the way.

A large fire erupted at the Cosmo oil refinery in Ichihara city in Chiba prefecture and burned out of control with 100-foot (30 meter) -high flames whipping into the sky.
From northeastern Japan's Miyagi prefecture, NHK showed footage of a large ship being swept away and ramming directly into a breakwater in Kesennuma city.

NHK said more than 4 million buildings were without power in Tokyo and its suburbs.
Also in Miyagi, a fire broke out in a turbine building of a nuclear power plant. Smoke was observed coming out of the building, which is separate from the plant's reactor, and the cause is under investigation, said Tohoku Electric Power Co. the company said.

A reactor area of a nearby plant was leaking water, the company said. But it was unclear if the leak was caused by tsunami water or something else. There were no reports of radioactive leaks at any of Japan's nuclear plants.

Jefferies International Limited, a global investment banking group, said it estimated overall losses to be about $10 billion.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the 2:46 p.m. quake was a magnitude 8.9, the biggest earthquake to hit Japan since officials began keeping records in the late 1800s, and one of the biggest ever recorded in the world.

The quake struck at a depth of six miles (10 kilometers), about 80 miles (125 kilometers) off the eastern coast, the agency said. The area is 240 miles (380 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo.

A tsunami warning was extended to a number of Pacific, Southeast Asian and Latin American nations, including Japan, Russia, Indonesia, New Zealand and Chile. In the Philippines, authorities ordered an evacuation of coastal communities, but no unusual waves were reported.

Thousands of people fled their homes in Indonesia after officials warned of a tsunami up to 6 feet (2 meters) high. But waves of only 4 inches (10 centimeters) were measured. No big waves came to the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory, either.

The first waves were expected to hit Hawaii about 1400 GMT (9 a.m. EST) Friday, and could reach more than 6 feet (2 meters), the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said.

In downtown Tokyo, large buildings shook violently and workers poured into the street for safety. TV footage showed a large building on fire and bellowing smoke in the Odaiba district of Tokyo. The tremor bent the upper tip of the iconic Tokyo Tower, a 1,093-foot (333-meter) steel structure inspired by the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

Osamu Akiya, 46, was working in Tokyo at his office in a trading company when the quake hit.
It sent bookshelves and computers crashing to the floor, and cracks appeared in the walls.
"I've been through many earthquakes, but I've never felt anything like this," he said. "I don't know if we'll be able to get home tonight."

Footage on NHK from their Sendai office showed employees stumbling around and books and papers crashing from desks. It also showed a glass shelter at a bus stop in Tokyo completely smashed by the quake and a weeping woman nearby being comforted by another woman.

Several quakes had hit the same region in recent days, including a 7.3 magnitude one on Wednesday that caused no damage.

Hiroshi Sato, a disaster management official in northern Iwate prefecture, said officials were having trouble getting an overall picture of the destruction.

"We don't even know the extent of damage. Roads were badly damaged and cut off as tsunami washed away debris, cars and many other things," he said.

Dozens of fires were reported in northern prefectures of Fukushima, Sendai, Iwate and Ibaraki. Collapsed homes and landslides were also reported in Miyagi.

Japan's worst previous quake was in 1923 in Kanto, an 8.3-magnitude temblor that killed 143,000 people, according to USGS. A 7.2-magnitude quake in Kobe city in 1996 killed 6,400 people.

Japan lies on the "Ring of Fire" - an arc of earthquake and volcanic zones stretching around the Pacific where about 90 percent of the world's quakes occur, including the one that triggered the Dec. 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that killed an estimated 230,000 people in 12 nations. A magnitude-8.8 temblor that shook central Chile last February also generated a tsunami and killed 524 people.

Associated Press writers Jay Alabaster, Mari Yamaguchi, Tomoko A. Hosaka and Yuri Kageyama contributed to this report.

Pasar Tunggu Kenaikan Bunga Cina

Pasar sebaiknya bersiap untuk kenaikan RRR dan bunga dalam beberapa pekan ke depan," menurut ekonom Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Lu Ting says. Gubernur Bank Sentral Cina, Zhou Xiaochuan mengatakan hal tersebut dalam konferensi pers. Ia mengatakan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga menjadi hal penting yang harus diperhatikan. "Artinya bahwa kesempatan untuk kenaikan suku bunga cukup besar terjadi sekitar medio bulan Maret sampai dengan awal bulan April", menurut  Lu. Bunga SHIBOR terendah di 1.7% dan untuk 7 hari 2.2%; Likuiditas antar bank cukup dan prospek kenaikan RRR cukup besar sekitar 50 bp, katanya.

Tsunami Kills Hundreds in Japan, Threatens Pacific Rim

Japan earthquakeThe biggest earthquake on record to hit Japan rocked the northeast coast on Friday, triggering a 10-meter tsunami that killed hundreds of people and swept away everything in its path, including houses, ships and cars.



The Red Cross in Geneva said the wall of water was higher than some Pacific islands and a tsunami warning was issued for almost the entire Pacific basin, although alerts were lifted for some countries, including Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand.

Up to 300 bodies were found in the coastal city of Sendai, media said. NHK television said the victims appeared to have drowned. The extent of the destruction along a lengthy stretch of coastline suggested the death toll could rise significantly. 

Some 3,000 residents living near a nuclear plant in Fukushima prefecture, north of Tokyo, were told to evacuate but the government said no radiation was leaking. It said the evacuation was a precaution after a reactor cooling malfunction. 

Other nuclear power plants and oil refineries were shut down after the 8.9 magnitude quake, while one refinery was ablaze. A major explosion hit a petrochemical complex in Miyagi prefecture after the quake, Kyodo said.
Political leaders pushed for an emergency budget to help fund relief efforts after Prime Minister Naoto Kan asked them to "save the country," Kyodo news agency reported.
Stunning TV footage showed a muddy wall of water carrying cars and wrecked homes at high speed across farmland near Sendai, home to one million people and which lies 300 km (180 miles) northeast of Tokyo. Ships had been flung onto a harbor wharf, where they lay helplessly on their side.
The quake, the most powerful since Japan started keeping records 140 years ago, sparked at least 80 fires in cities and towns along the coast, Kyodo news agency said.
A ship carrying 100 people had been swept away by the tsunami, Kyodo said. One train was unaccounted for.
In Tokyo, residents who had earlier fled swaying buildings jammed the streets trying to make their way home after much of the city's public transportation was shut down.
Electronics giant Sony [SNE  33.50    -0.76  (-2.22%)   ], one of the country's biggest exporters, shut six factories, as air force jets raced toward the northeast coast to determine the extent of the damage.
The Bank of Japan, which has been struggling to boost the anemic economy, said it would do its utmost to ensure financial market stability as the yen and Japanese shares fell.
"I was terrified and I'm still frightened," said Hidekatsu Hata, 36, manager of a Chinese noodle restaurant in Tokyo, where buildings shook violently. "I've never experienced such a big quake before."
The tsunami alerts revived memories of the giant waves which struck Asia in 2004. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued alerts for countries to the west and across the Pacific as far away as Colombia and Peru.
The earthquake was the fifth most powerful to hit the world in the past century.
There were several strong aftershocks. In Tokyo, there was widespread panic. An oil refinery near the city was on fire, with dozens of storage tanks under threat. Around 4.4 million homes were without power in northern Japan, media said.
"People are flooding the streets. It's incredible. Everyone is trying to get home but I didn't see any taxis," said Koji Goto, a 43-year-old Tokyo resident.
NHK television showed flames and black smoke billowing from a building in Odaiba, a Tokyo suburb, and bullet trains to the north of the country were halted. Thick smoke was also pouring out of an industrial area in Yokohama's Isogo area. TV showed residents of the city running out of shaking buildings, shielding their heads with their hands from falling masonry.
TV footage showed boats, cars and trucks tossed around like toys in the water after a small tsunami hit the town of Kamaichi in northern Japan. An overpass, location unknown, appeared to have collapsed and cars were turning around and speeding away.
"The building shook for what seemed a long time and many people in the newsroom grabbed their helmets and some got under their desks," Reuters correspondent Linda Sieg said in Tokyo.
"It was probably the worst I have felt since I came to Japan more than 20 years ago."
The U.S. navy said its ships had been unaffected by the tsunami and were ready to provide disaster relief if needed. China offered to provide earthquake relief.
The quake struck just before the Tokyo stock market closed, pushing the Nikkei down to end at a five-week low. Nikkei futures trading in Osaka tumbled as much as 4.7 percent in reaction to the news.
The disaster also weighed on markets elsewhere.
Great Kanto Quake
The quake surpasses the Great Kanto quake of Sept. 1, 1923, which had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area.
The 1995 Kobe quake caused $100 billion in damage and was the most expensive natural disaster in history. Economic damage from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was estimated at about $10 billion.
Passengers on a subway line in Tokyo screamed and grabbed other passengers' hands during the quake. The shaking was so bad it was hard to stand, said Reuters reporter Mariko Katsumura.
Hundreds of office workers and shoppers spilled into Hitotsugi street, a shopping street in Akasaka in downtown Tokyo. 

Crowds gathered in front of televisions in a shop next to the drugstore for details. After the shaking from the first quake subsided, crowds watched and pointed to construction cranes on an office building up the street with voices saying, 

"They're still shaking!," "Are they going to fall?" Japan's northeast Pacific coast, called Sanriku, has suffered from quakes and tsunamis in the past and a 7.2 quake struck on Wednesday. In 1933, a magnitude 8.1 quake in the area killed more than 3,000 people.
Earthquakes are common in Japan, one of the world's most seismically active areas. The country accounts for about 20 percent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater.

Jepang

Tokyo – Gempa kuat 8,8 skala Richter Jumat tadi mengguncang Jepang, menimbulkan tsunami yang kuat yang menyebabkan kapal-kapal menghantam pantai dan menyapu mobil-mobil yang melewati jalan-jalan di kota-kota pesisir negara itu.
Beberapa orang cedera, namun belum dilaporkan ada kematian langsung, terutama dari daerah pesisir Pasifik Miyagi di pulau utama Honshu, kata polisi menurut media dan tayangan televisi yang menunjukkan banjir meluas di daerah tersebut.
Gempa yang menghantam pada sore, juga sangat mengguncang bangunan di Tokyo yang lebih besar, yang merupakan perkotaan terbesar di dunia dengan penduduk 30 juta orang.
Di sejumlah tempat listrik padam.
Setidaknya enam kebakaran dilaporkan di Tokyo, di mana sistem kereta bawah tanah berhenti, sirene meraung-raung dan orang-orang berhamburan keluar dari bangunan. Gempa pertama terjadi pada sekitar 382 kilometer (237 mil) di timur laut Tokyo, menurut Survei Geologi AS, yang merevisi besarnya kekuatan gempa 7,9 SR yang diumumkan sebelumnya.
Jepang, terletak pada “Cincin Api Pasifik” dan terdapat beberapa gunung berapi. Tokyo terletak di salah satu wilayah yang paling berbahaya.
Sebuah peringatan tsunami dikeluarkan untuk Jepang, Taiwan, Rusia dan Kepulauan Mariana, menurut Pusat Peringatan Tsunami Pasifik. “Gempa bumi seukuran ini memiliki potensi untuk menimbulkan tsunami yang merusak dan bisa menyerang garis pantai di dekat pusat gempa dalam hitungan menit, serta garis pantai yang lebih jauh dalam hitungan jam,” kata pernyataan Pusat Tsunami.
Hal ini juga menempatkan wilayah Guam, Filipina, Kepulauan Marshall, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Nauru, Mikronesia dan Hawaii mendapat limpahan tsunami yang lebih rendah.
Nilai tukar Yen jatuh menjadi 83,30 terhadap dolar AS dari 82,81 sebelum gempa melanda. Mega-kota Tokyo terletak di simpang tiga lempeng benua – yang merupakan piring Eurasia, Pasifik dan Laut Filipina – dan secara perlahan saling menggeser satu sama lain, membangun tekanan gempa besar.
Komite Penilitian Gempa pemerintah memperingatkan kemungkinan 70 persen terjadi gempa berkekuatan besar sampai 8 SR akan menyerang di dataran Kanto dalam tempo 30 tahun ke depan.
Terakhir kali sebuah “Gempa Besar” menghantam Tokyo pada tahun 1923, ketika Gempa Besar Kanto menelan lebih dari 140.000 jiwa, banyak dari mereka mati dalam kebakaran. Pada tahun 1855, gempa Ansei Edo juga menghancurkan kota itu. Baru-baru ini, gempa bumi Kobe 1995 menewaskan lebih dari 6.400 orang.
Lebih dari 220.000 orang tewas ketika sebuah gempa 9.1 SR mengguncang lepas pantai Indonesia pada tahun 2004, menimbulkan tsunami besar yang melanda pantai di negara-negara di sekitar Samudera Hindia sampai Afrika.
Gempa kecil sangat terasa setiap hari di beberapa tempat di Jepang dan orang-orang mengambil bagian dalam latihan rutin di sekolah-sekolah dan tempat kerja untuk mempersiapkan bencana.
Pembangkit listrik tenaga nuklir dan kereta peluru dirancang untuk secara otomatis terhenti ketika bumi bergemuruh dan banyak bangunan dirancang dengan baja dan besi beton berbiaya besar dalam beberapa dekade terakhir ini.

Gempa Jepang Hentikan Aktivitas

perusahaan termasuk Sony Corp. dan Toyota Motor Corp. terpaksa menghentikan aktivitas pabriknya pasca gempa bumi berkekuatan 8,9 mengguncang lepas pantai Jepang, yang merusak fasilitas produksi dan memadamkan aliran listrik.
Sony menghentikan dan mengevakuasi seluruh pekerja pada ke-6 pabriknya yang berada di timur laut Jepang, kata juru bicara perusahaan, Yasuhiro Okada di Tokyo.
 
Gempa, Jepang terkuat di setidaknya satu abad, melanda 130 kilometer (81 mil) di lepas pantai Sendai, utara Tokyo, kata US Geological Survey. Getaran menyebabkan tsunami setinggi 10 meter (33 kaki) yang tergenang kota utara dan mengakibatkan gedung-gedung mengorak sejauh Tokyo.
 
Sementara produsen mobil terbesar dunia Toyota dan sejumlah anak perusahaannya juga telah menutup 3 pabrik, termasuk pabrik yang baru mulai beroperasi tahun ini di Miyagi, yang memproduksi city-car Yaris dengan kapasitas produksi mencapai 120.000 kendaraan per tahun, kata juru bicara perusahaan Shiori Hashimoto di Tokyo.

Penjualan Retail AS Naik

Penjualan Retail AS meningkat 1% di Februari, sesuai perkiraan namun lebih tinggi dari revisi publikasi sebelumnya 0.7%. Dow kurangi pelemahan dan dollar pertahankan penguatan setelah data dirilis. Penjualan ritel catatkan kenaikan tertinggi dalam empat bulan terakhir, seiring membaiknya kondisi sektor tenaga kerja yang berhasil dorong konsumen untuk berbelanja lebih banyak. JC Penney dan Macy's adalah sebagian retailer yang laporkan kenaikan penjualan; sinyal mood berbelanja konsumen telah kembali. Meski tingginya biaya bahan bakar bebani anggaran rumah tangga; namun insentif pajak Obama telah berikan lebih banyak gaji sehingga dapat dongkrak permintaan dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.

Gold today

Emas terlihat berusaha menembus support yang berada di area 1412.27. Level ini diambil berdasarkan level Fibonacci retracement yang mengacu pada pergerakan di grafik harian. Tembusnya level support tersebut berpotensi untuk mengoreksi harga emas lebih dalam lagi ke area support selanjutnya di 1376.22 untuk beberapa hari ke depan, sekaligus konfirmasi terbentuknya pola double top di grafik harian. Resistance di 1444.30 memerlukan perhatian ekstra karena tembusnya level ini justru berpotensi memicu kembali momentum bullish ke area 1476.43.

Emas Masih Rentan Terhadap Tekanan

Emas berupaya bangkit dari keterpurukan baru-baru ini meskipun tetap rentan terhadap tekanan bearish lebih lanjut pada hari Jumat, seiring investor melikuidasi posisi long-nya dan berupaya menghindari resiko pada pasar keuangan, disertai Dollar yang relatif masih kuat turut membebani.
Saat ini Emas ditawarkan hampir $5 lebih rendah pada kisaran $1407.60/1408.40 per ons.
 
"Dengan sebagian besar pasar berupaya mengurangi resiko, maka Emas akan tetap rentan terhadap tekanan dalam jangka pendek," kata analis James Moore dari FastMarkets. "Pasar masih terus memantau perkembangan situasi di wilayah Mena dan bagaimana demonstrasi di Arab Saudi berpengaruh terhadap harga komoditas. Kejatuhan lebih dalam lagi berpotensi memicu bargain hunting," tambahnya.
 
Dari segi teknikal, dengan tertembusnya support di $1412 hari ini, maka support berikutnya dapat dijumpai pada $1405 dan MA 21-hari di $1403. Sementara, resistensi berada di $1427, $1432 dan $1436.

Qaddafi's Son Declares Offensive as Libyan Rebels Flee Oil Hub Ras Lanuf

Libyan rebels under fire fled a key oil hub on the Mediterranean coast, as Muammar Qaddafi’s son said government forces are mounting a full-scale attack and Western countries will lose if they support the uprising.
Saif al-Islam, who has become a spokesman for his father, said the government will never surrender to the rebels and that the offensive is starting now.
“This is our country. We fight here in Libya, we die here in Libya,” he said at a press conference broadcast on Sky television. “The Libyan people will never ever welcome NATO, they will never ever welcome the Americans.”
Oil futures, which had risen to a 2 1/2-year high on the conflict in Libya, pared early losses today following an Associated Press report that Saudi Arabian police opened fire to disperse protesters in the eastern city of al-Qatif. Crude oil for April delivery declined $1.94 to $102.44 a barrel at 3:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at about $101.50 before reports of the gunfire.
Libyan Rebels in Ras Lanuf retreated today under air and artillery fire from Qaddafi’s forces, Al-Jazeera showed in a broadcast from the coastal city that is home to Libyan Emirates Oil Refinery Co. Black smoke billowed from an oil depot nearby.
In Washington, the director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, said the momentum in the fighting, initially with the rebels, has shifted to Qaddafi’s forces. The U.S. director of national intelligence, James Clapper, said Qaddafi “will prevail” if the fighting goes on for a longer time.
“Local doctors have seen a sharp increase in the number of casualties arriving at hospitals,” International Committee of the Red Cross President Jakob Kellenberger said today in a statement from Geneva. Twenty-two people have died and 40 have been treated for wounds in the western city of Misrata and Red Cross doctors have operated on another 55 casualties in the northeastern town of Ajdabiya, he said.
Diplomatic Recognition
The rebels’ setback occurred as their leaders won French diplomatic recognition for the Interim Transitional National Council in a meeting in Paris with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who plans to send an ambassador to the opposition stronghold of Benghazi. Libya may suspend ties with France, state television reported after the announcement.
The rebels also were promised a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton next week when she visits France, Egypt and Tunisia.
Sarkozy may propose to European leaders at a summit tomorrow that Qaddafi installations be bombed, Agence France- Presse reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the plans. Targets could include command centers in Tripoli and military bases to the east and south, the agency said.

Casualties

More than 400 people have been killed and 2,000 wounded in fighting in eastern Libya since Feb. 17, a member of the insurgents’ provisional health committee told reporters yesterday in Benghazi. The official, Gebril Hewadi, said the dead include 350 civilians and 50 rebel fighters, according to regional hospitals. The number of people missing is still unknown, he said.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers sought to overcome differences about establishing a no-fly zone when they met today in Brussels. While countries such as the U.K. and France have urged NATO allies to consider the proposal, which would prevent Qaddafi’s forces from mounting air attacks on the rebels, the U.S. has been less enthusiastic, and Germany and other nations have expressed concern about the consequences.
“We don’t want to get sucked into a war in North Africa,” German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told reporters in Brussels before a meeting of European Union foreign ministers.

Legal Basis

NATO needs a legal basis from the United Nations and the backing of Arab states before it could impose any no-fly zone, alliance Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels.
Libya’s air defense system is “quite substantial” and is the second largest in the Middle East, Clapper said today in Washington before the Senate Armed Services Committee. He said Qaddafi’s forces have a logistical advantage over the rebels.
Burgess told the committee that the fighting has “reached a state of equilibrium where the initiative, if you will, may actually be on the regime side at this time.”
Sen. Joe Lieberman said in response that survival of Qaddafi’s regime “would be a very bad outcome.” The U.S. might help the rebels with such measures as a no-fly zone, jamming regime communications, giving intelligence to the rebels and “perhaps supplying them with weapons,” he said.

Somalia Scenario

Clapper said other possible outcomes include something like the “pre-Qaddafi, pre-king history of Libya” in which there are three semi-autonomous mini-states -- one based around Tripoli, one around rebel-controlled Benghazi and one in other tribal areas. “Or you could end up with a Somalia-like situation,” he added.
Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, said the U.S. has an interest not only in the humanitarian crisis in Libya but also “we don’t want it to end up as a base like Somalia for anti- American Islamist terrorism.” He called for the Obama administration to follow France in recognizing the rebel’s opposition government.
Qaddafi’s son said Libya was freeing three Dutch marines who had been captured during an evacuation mission near the coastal city of Sirte last month.“We are sending them back home but we are still keeping their helicopter,” he said.

Oil Facilities

Mustafa Gheriani, media coordinator for the rebels in Benghazi, said yesterday that Qaddafi’s forces fired missiles against the oil pipeline that goes to Gulf of Sidra and against the Ras Lanuf port.
Ras Lanuf has a tanker terminal that has exported 200,000 barrels a day, as well as Libya’s biggest refinery, with a capacity of 220,000 barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. The Sidra terminal exported 450,000 barrels a day as recently as January, according to the IEA. Together, the two ports account for 43 percent of exports in January, according to the IEA.
The Ras Lanuf refinery was shut and its employees fled because of the fighting, an official from the Libyan Emirates Oil Refining Co. said yesterday. He spoke before reports of a raid on the facility and calls to his office later weren’t answered.
The oil tanker Frankopan departed empty from Brega, another port on the Gulf of Sidra close to the center of the conflict, because there was no crude to collect, said Dragan Gacina, marketing manager at Zadar, Croatia-based Tankerska Plovidba, the vessel’s owner, by phone today.

Journalists Barred

Qaddafi’s government took Western journalists late yesterday to a stadium on the outskirts of Zawiyah where regime supporters waved flags amid fireworks, the AP said. Authorities refused to let the journalists visit the central square where insurgents had been resisting Qaddafi’s forces seeking to regain control of the town, the AP said. Zawiyah was the closest city to the capital, Tripoli, to fall under rebel control.
The EU, U.S. and other countries have frozen the assets of Qaddafi and his associates held outside Libya. Germany has frozen Libyan bank assets worth “billions,” Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said today. The EU is “in the process” of widening sanctions to include organizations controlled by Qaddafi as well as individuals, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said yesterday.

Regional Turmoil

The Libyan uprising followed popular protest movements that ousted Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. There have also been anti-government demonstrations across the region.
Yemeni protesters today rejected a plan announced by President Ali Abdullah Saleh for a new constitution leading to an elected government, and insisted the president should quit immediately.
In Saudi Arabia, where protests are prohibited, Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal called yesterday for “dialogue” to deal with the complaints of the Shiite minority, who mostly live in the oil-rich eastern part of the kingdom.
Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including Saudi Arabia, agreed to set up a fund worth more than $10 billion to help two of the group’s six members, Oman and Bahrain, Kuwait’s Foreign minister Sheikh Mohammad Al-Sabah said. In both countries, demonstrators calling for more democracy and higher living standards have been killed in clashes with security forces.

Copper in London Gains, Paring Worst Weekly Drop Since June, On Oil Prices

Copper advanced on the London Metal Exchange for the first day in three, paring the steepest weekly loss in nine months, as a drop in oil prices lessened concern that inflationary pressure may curb demand.
The benchmark three-month copper contract increased as much as 0.9 percent to $9,275 a metric ton and traded at $9,240 at 12:13 p.m. Singapore time. The contract for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.7 percent to 69,730 yuan ($10,607) a ton.
Oil headed for a first weekly loss in four weeks, easing concern that sustained high oil prices triggered by unrest in the Middle East and North Africa may slow the economic recovery.
“The fact that oil prices came off a bit may help metals,” Ben Westmore, an analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd., said today by phone from Melbourne. “Copper looks well supported at current prices.”
Both Shanghai and LME copper futures are heading for weekly declines of more than 6 percent, the steepest drops since May and June, respectively. Investors and traders remained concerned about oil prices and a slowdown in copper imports into China, Westmore said. China is the world’s biggest user of copper. Bank AG said.
An oil-price increase of $10 to $110 a barrel will reduce copper consumption growth to 3.5 percent, freeing up about 120,000 tons of metal, according to Deutsche Bank AG analyst Daniel Brebner.
In February, China’s purchases of copper and products tumbled 35 percent from a month earlier to the lowest in more than two years, customs figures showed yesterday.
China’s consumer prices rose 4.9 percent in February from a year earlier, exceeding the government’s 2011 target for a fifth month. The advance was more than the 4.8 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists. The world’s second- largest economy has a 4 percent inflation target for the full year.
Investors are concerned that monetary tightening to tame inflation may slow the Chinese economy as U.S. unemployment remains elevated and debt problems in Europe threaten growth.
“There are now grounds for caution,” Stephen Briggs, a London-based metals analyst at BNP Paribas, wrote in a report. “The geopolitical situation is uncertain and global interest rates are on the rise.”
At a briefing today in Beijing, Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his monetary policy doesn’t only aim to control inflation, but also needs to target employment and growth.
U.S. applications for first-time unemployment benefits increased by 26,000 to 397,000 in the week ended March 5, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. Economists forecast claims would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The total number of people receiving benefits in the prior week fell to the lowest level since October 2008.
Aluminum in London dropped 0.2 percent to $2,582 a ton, zinc rose 0.6 percent to $2,300 a ton and lead climbed 1.2 percent to $2,459.75 a ton. Nickel gained 0.6 percent to $26,200 a ton, while tin added 1.3 percent to $29,800 a ton.
-- With assistance from Sophie Leung in Hong Kong and Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London. Editors: Matthew Oakley, Jarrett Banks

Commodity Futures

Commodity Futures

Indexes

INDEX NAME VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME
Index_red_code UBS Bloomberg CMCI 1,703.21 -22.45 1,720.17 1,720.56 1,690.29 03/10
Index_red_code S&P GSCI 707.19 -8.77 719.46 719.73 699.86 03/10
Index_red_code RJ/CRB Commodity 354.45 -5.78 356.95 357.42 352.02 03/10
Index_red_code Rogers Intl 4,168.61 -59.69 4,229.10 4,229.14 4,137.19 17:55
Commodity Futures Chart

Energy


PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
BRENT CRUDE FUTR (USD/bbl.) 115.380 -0.050 -0.04% 23:09
GAS OIL FUT (ICE) (USD/MT) 965.000 11.750 1.23% 23:09
HEATING OIL FUTR (USd/gal.) 305.000 0.510 0.17% 23:04
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 3.828 -0.002 -0.05% 23:04
GASOLINE RBOB FUT (USd/gal.) 302.950 0.990 0.33% 22:43
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 102.590 -0.110 -0.11% 23:08

Agriculture


PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
CANOLA FUTR (WCE) (CAD/MT) 569.100 -0.800 -0.14% 21:55
COCOA FUTURE - LI (GBP/MT) 2,244.000 -15.000 -0.66% 03/10
COCOA FUTURE (USD/MT) 3,445.000 -82.000 -2.32% 03/10
COFFEE 'C' FUTURE (USd/lb.) 280.550 -14.300 -4.85% 03/10
CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 682.000 -0.750 -0.11% 23:01
COTTON NO.2 FUTR (USd/lb.) 202.020 1.040 0.52% 23:04
FCOJ-A FUTURE (USd/lb.) 170.250 -3.800 -2.18% 03/10
WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) (USd/bu.) 738.250 -2.250 -0.30% 23:08
WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) (USd/bu.) 835.250 -1.750 -0.21% 22:45
SUGAR #11 (WORLD) (USd/lb.) 28.710 -1.710 -5.62% 03/10
SOYBEAN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 1,347.250 -8.250 -0.61% 23:06
LUMBER FUTURE ($/1,000 board ft.) 310.600 1.500 0.49% 22:04
OAT FUTURE (USd/bu.) 358.000 2.000 0.56% 22:27
ROUGH RICE (CBOT) (USD/cwt) 12.785 -0.265 -2.03% 22:48
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR (USD/T.) 352.500 -1.200 -0.34% 22:57
SOYBEAN OIL FUTR (USd/lb.) 56.710 -0.220 -0.39% 23:04
WOOL FUTURE (SFE) (cents/kg) 1,230.000 -3.000 -0.24% 22:58

Industrial Metals


PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
COPPER FUTURE (USd/lb.) 419.650 -0.100 -0.02% 23:08

Precious Metals


PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 1,415.300 2.800 0.20% 23:08 
SILVER FUTURE (USD/t oz.) 35.340 0.274 0.78% 23:09

Livestock


PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
LIVE CATTLE FUTR (USd/lb.) 116.900 -0.050 -0.04% 23:04
CATTLE FEEDER FUT (USd/lb.) 137.325 0.050 0.04% 21:27
LEAN HOGS FUTURE (USd/lb.) 100.850 -0.600 -0.59% 23:05

Oil Heads for First Weekly Decline in Four on U.S. Economy, Demand Concern

Oil headed for its first weekly decline in four as signs of weakening demand in the U.S. countered concern that Libyan supply cuts will spread through the Middle East.

Futures were little changed today and have dropped 1.6 percent this week after U.S. crude inventories increased more than projected and unemployment rose, bolstering concern the country’s economic recovery will slow. Saudi Arabian security forces yesterday broke up a rally a day before what anti- government demonstrators have called a “Day of Rage.”

“If we weren’t seeing this Middle Eastern conflict, the abundance of stocks in the U.S. would be having a significant damping effect on the price,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “We don’t see any sustained bounce-back in activity to above average growth rates for a long period of time in the U.S. It’s going to be a prolonged recovery.”

Crude for April delivery was at $102.68 a barrel, down 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:19 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract declined $1.68, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $102.70. Prices are up 25 percent from a year earlier.
Brent oil for April settlement was at $115.38 a barrel, down 5 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 0.5 percent this week, heading for its first decline in seven weeks.

U.S. Economy

Brent’s smaller decline this week has widened the premium to West Texas oil traded in New York. The difference between the European grade and U.S. futures was $12.63 a barrel today compared with $11.55 on March 4.
Oil fell after the Labor Department said U.S. jobless claims increased by 26,000 to 397,000 last week from a three- year low. Economists forecast they would climb to 376,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
An Energy Department report on March 9 showed crude stockpiles rose to the highest level since 2004 at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade. Inventories increased 1.69 million barrels to 40.3 million last week, the highest since the department began gathering data at the hub.
Total U.S. crude stockpiles rose 2.52 million barrels to 348.9 million, the Energy Department report showed. A 1 million- barrel increase was projected, according to the median of 15 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.
Libyan rebels under fire fled from a key oil hub on the Mediterranean coast, as Muammar Qaddafi’s son said government forces are mounting a full-scale attack and Western countries will lose if they support the uprising.
Output Cut
The violence has cut output in Libya by as much as 1 million barrels a day, according to Shokri Ghanem, chairman of state-run Libya’s National Oil Corp. The North African country pumped 1.39 million barrels a day in February, down from 1.59 million the previous month, based on Bloomberg estimates.
Regional unrest, which has so far toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt, has reached Saudi Arabia’s neighbors Yemen, Oman and Bahrain, the island-kingdom where a Sunni family rules the majority Shiite population.
Libya’s production losses led banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup Inc. and Commerzbank AG to raise their forecasts for crude prices this year.
Goldman increased it Brent and WTI estimates for the second quarter of the year by $4.50 a barrel to $105 and $99 respectively. The bank said a decline in OPEC’s spare capacity reduced its ability to make up for further disruptions.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may reduce crude exports for a fifth time in the four weeks through March 26, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. Loadings may drop to 23.56 million barrels a day in the period, down 1.3 percent from 23.88 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 26, the Halifax, England-based company said yesterday.