Kamis, 10 Maret 2011
Evakuasi Heatrow Jatuhkan Sterling
Pound Anjlok Pasca Keputusan BoE
Pound tergelincir lebih dari 30 pips terhadap Dollar AS dan melemah terhadap mata uang utama lainnya pasca pengumuman keputusan suku bunga BoE yang tidak berubah, serta mempertahankan program pembelian aset senilai 200 milyar Pound.
Bank of England memutuskan untuk tetap mempertahankan suku bunga acuan pada tingkat 0,5% untuk 25 bulan berturut-turut, serta mempertahankan program pelonggaran kuantitatifnya tidak berubah pada 200 milyar Pound.
GBP/USD anjlok dari area 1.6175 hingga ke 1.6142, sedangkan GBP/JPY beringsut dari posisi tinggi harian di 134.34 ke kisaran 133.95, dan EUR/GBP berhasil pulih dari level rendah harian di 0.8535 untuk beranjak naik lebih tinggi ke area 0.8565.
BoE Tahan Bunga 0,5%
BoE kembali menahan suku bunga di level rendah 0,5% dan tidak merubah program pembelian obligasi 200 miliar pounds. Sterling turun 20 pips seiring investor lakukan aksi ambil untung.
Downgrade Spanyol Resahkan Pasar Eropa
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 anjlok 1,05%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing kehilangan 0,72% dan 0,8%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE bergerak 0,78% lebih rendah setelah 2 jam perdagangan dimulai.
Moody's memangkas peringkat hutang Spanyol sebanyak satu tingkat menjadi ‘AA2’ dari ‘Aa1’ sebelumnya dengan outlook "negatif". Perekonomian negara itu tengah dilanda kekhawatiran terhadap kemampuan pemerintah dalam merestrukturisasi sektor keuangan.
Ancaman bailout Portugal
Portugal berhasil lelang obligasi senilai €1 M bertenor dua tahun, tetapi biaya pinjaman makin mahal sehingga tegaskan kecemasan Lisbon akan segera ajukan bailout. Yield obligasi mencapai 5.993%, lebih tinggi dari lelang sebelumnya 4.086%; rasio bid-to-cover juga turun menjadi 1.6. "Dengan yield yang tinggi sekarang maka ekspektasi Portugal ajukan bailout akan terjaga," ungkap strategis Rabobank Richard McGuire. Yield obligasi pemerintah Portugal bertenor 10 tahun juga cetak rekor 7,78%.
Investor masih jauhi obligasi pemerintah Portugal karena cemas Lisbon akan ikuti jejak Yunani dan Irlandia ajukan bailout. Meskipun demikian, pemerintah Portugal masih yakin tidak butuh dana talangan dan sanggup membayar biaya pinjaman tinggi untuk sementara waktu. "Kurva imbal hasil Portugal praktis datar dan di tingkat tinggi; ini tunjukkan investor masih coba tentukan premi yang layak, tapi investor masih belum bisa lakukan," papar Filipe Silva, manajer Banco Carregosa. "Kondisi serupa juga terjadi di Yunani dan di Irlandia sebelum kedua negara tersebut akhirnya ajukan bailout."
Investor masih jauhi obligasi pemerintah Portugal karena cemas Lisbon akan ikuti jejak Yunani dan Irlandia ajukan bailout. Meskipun demikian, pemerintah Portugal masih yakin tidak butuh dana talangan dan sanggup membayar biaya pinjaman tinggi untuk sementara waktu. "Kurva imbal hasil Portugal praktis datar dan di tingkat tinggi; ini tunjukkan investor masih coba tentukan premi yang layak, tapi investor masih belum bisa lakukan," papar Filipe Silva, manajer Banco Carregosa. "Kondisi serupa juga terjadi di Yunani dan di Irlandia sebelum kedua negara tersebut akhirnya ajukan bailout."
Arab Saudi Pertahankan Alokasi Stabil
Arab Saudi, eksportir minyak mentah terbesar dunia, akan menyediakan suplai dalam volume stabil, stabil dari level dibulan Maret, dikatakan sebuah sumber industri yang mengetahui masalah tersebut hari Kamis. “Kapasitas alokasi adalah hal yang kami minta saat ini”, dikatakan salah satu sumber tersebut. “Tidak ada perubahan dalam kapasitas alokasi untuk setiap grade dari bulan lalu”.
China market
Ekspor dibulan Februari naik 2.4% dari tahun sebelumnya, paling tidak sejak 2009 bersama hari libur Imlek yang menghambat pengapalan, dan impor yang naik 19.4%, dilaporkan biro data Bea Cukai hari ini.
Penasehat bank sentral, Li Daokui mengatakan bahwa suplus perdagangan selama 1 tahun penuh akan menyusut dari level 2010 (tahun sebelumnya).
Next Target for Silver $39, But Stop Loss is Key
Which is better – gold or silver? Often consigned as an industrial metal with limited value, silver has outshined gold in the past 18 months. Between July 2010 and January 2011 the COMEX silver futures price rose by 72 percent from $18.00 to $31.00. Silver outperformed gold by more than three times and it continues to do so.
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Chart analysis shows a significant change in the trend and provides a method to set the next upside target in this speculative bubble.
The silver market was dominated by a strong historical resistance level near $19.00. This capped the trend rise starting in October 2008. Silver first encountered this resistance level in December 2009 and then tested the level several times in 2010 before developing a breakout in July 2010.
The rise from $19.00 to $31.00 was a smooth continuous trend that carried the price into blue sky territory. The uptrend line defining this trend is used to track the continuation of this trend following the retreat and rebound behavior in January. Blue sky describes the situation where the price is making new all time highs. Investors cannot use historical price activity to establish support and resistance levels, or new profit targets.
The retreat from the peak found support near $27.00. This was also a small consolidation area in the trend in November 2010. The current price rebound from $27.00 has resistance near $31.00, based on the previous peak high. This price activity developed a consolidation band and this chart pattern provides a method for projecting future price targets.
The width of the consolidation band is measured, and this value is projected upwards. This gave us a potential target near $35.00. That rise of 16 percent has already been achieved. The acceleration of this breakout activity and the better rate of return is attracting investors who want better returns. This leverage impact is increased by trading in silver mines and silver producers.
The width of the consolidation band is projected upwards again to give a new upside target of $39.00. This double projection method has been successfully applied to other fast moving trends and sets valid targets. However, this double projection method also confirms a speculative bubble so traders follow these rises with tight stop loss conditions.
The price of silver has again moved above the uptrend line and this is now used as a support level for the rising trend. A close below the uptrend line is particularly bearish because it is associated with the collapse of speculative momentum.
Historically the demand for silver has been driven largely by the growth of the photography industry and this has collapsed with the rise of digital photography. This destruction of silver demand has not acted a brake on the recent uptrend developments. This disconnection between any obvious changes in physical demand for silver and the silver price also points the way to a speculative bubble. This suggests that silver is a useful trading instrument because bubbles inevitably collapse. For now though, silver will continue to outshine gold in the current market.
Gold Steady Despite Oil Gains; Silver ETF Record High
Gold held steady on Thursday despite a rebound in oil prices as investors waited to see if the international community would agree to a "no fly" zone for Libya, while holdings in the world's largest silver exchange-traded fund struck a record high, reflecting greater interest in the relatively cheaper precious metal.
Bullion traders remain focused on mounting unrest across the Arab World and renewed concern about euro zone debt — factors which sent prices to an all time high above $1,440 earlier this week. Platinum and palladium were mostly steady but falling equities were likely to weigh on sentiment.
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Spot gold [XAU= 1429.25 
0.46 (+0.03%)] was steady at $1,429, having struck a record high of $1,444.40 an ounce on Monday.
0.46 (+0.03%)] was steady at $1,429, having struck a record high of $1,444.40 an ounce on Monday. The U.S. military would be able to establish a "no-fly" zone over Libya within a couple of days if the international community decided that such a move was needed, a top U.S. general said on Wednesday, but the United Nations Security Council is split on whether to authorize such an action.
"Another factor that could see gold and silver higher would be the return of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Investors will be looking forward to euro zone policy makers meeting this Friday. If there's no resolution, perhaps we could see a new high," said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
"I think there's an increase in investment interest in silver with gold hitting new record highs. Silver is commonly perceived as the poor man's gold."
Silver [XAG= 36.04 
-0.01 (-0.03%) 
] was steady at $35.92 an ounce, off a 31-year peak around $36 hit on Monday.
-0.01 (-0.03%) ] was steady at $35.92 an ounce, off a 31-year peak around $36 hit on Monday. The iShares Silver Trust [SLV 35.27 0.09 (+0.26%) ] said its holdings hit a record high at 10,974.06 metric tones by March 9. The previous record was 10,964.14, set on Dec. 14, 2010.
0.09 (+0.26%) ] said its holdings hit a record high at 10,974.06 metric tones by March 9. The previous record was 10,964.14, set on Dec. 14, 2010. "I think silver is only chasing gold. Some people think silver could reach $100. But I guess it needs to surpass $40 first before hitting a new high," said a dealer in Hong Kong.
"Sentiment in gold is neutral. People won't commit too much at these price levels. There's a bit of buying at around $1,425. I guess jewelers would have to buy. They have to do the business."
The physical gold market also lacked activity in Singapore, a center for bullion trading in Southeast Asia.
The euro steadied on Thursday off a one-week low, but the currency is increasingly undermined by worries about how Europe will mend fiscal problems of several euro zone countries as the market looks to a European policymaker meeting and stress tests on banks planned in the coming weeks.
The goal for Friday's euro zone summit, to be attended by 17 heads of state, is to agree a competitiveness pact to be adopted by the bloc members to show their commitment to overhauling their economies.
U.S. gold futures for April [GCCV1 1430.20 0.60 (+0.04%)] traded around $1,429.6 an ounce. The contract hit record at $1,445.70 on Monday, mainly due to unrest in North Africa and the Middle East that sent oil prices higher.
0.60 (+0.04%)] traded around $1,429.6 an ounce. The contract hit record at $1,445.70 on Monday, mainly due to unrest in North Africa and the Middle East that sent oil prices higher.Oil rose around 0.4 percent on Thursday with U.S. crude near $105 and Brent above $116 a barrel, after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi bombed oil industry infrastructure, inflicting what could be longer-term damage on the country's exporting capacity.
The White House on Wednesday strongly defended its response to the turmoil in Libya, insisting it has taken "dramatic action" and rebutting criticism that its consensus-based approach is too cautious.
With Libyan rebels fragmented and disorganized and Gaddafi's forces successfully counter-attacking, the Obama administration has been struggling to craft a strategy that forces Gaddafi from power without entangling the United States in a new war in the Muslim world.
China's import of commodities, most of which posted strong increases in January, may finally show signs of easing in February as an extended holiday season disrupted shipments and high prices cut orders.
Brent Tops $116 as Gaddafi Bombs Libyan Oil Facilities
Brent crude rose 0.3 percent to surpass $116 on Thursday after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi bombed oil industry infrastructure, inflicting what could be longer-term damage on the country's exporting capacity.
Gaddafi's forces struck an oil pipeline leading to Es Sider and dropped bombs on storage tanks in the Ras Lanuf oil terminal area in the eastern section of Libya that is rebel-controlled. Rebels said government forces also hit an oil pipeline leading to Sidrah.
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"The large explosions and enormous columns of smoke from storage tanks and other facilities in Ras Lanuf, close to the Es Sider terminal, are perhaps more than merely symbolic," Barclays Capital oil analysts headed by Paul Horsnell said.
"They represent a final fading of any residual realistic hope that the outage of Libyan oil could prove to be anything other than prolonged."
In London, Brent crude for April [LCOCV1 116.31 0.37 (+0.32%) ] gained 34 cents to $116.28 a barrel after soaring almost $3 on Wednesday, or 2.5 percent, from as low as $112.16. They reached a 2-1/2-year high of $119.79 on Feb. 24.
0.37 (+0.32%) ] gained 34 cents to $116.28 a barrel after soaring almost $3 on Wednesday, or 2.5 percent, from as low as $112.16. They reached a 2-1/2-year high of $119.79 on Feb. 24. Nymex light sweet crude [CLCV1 104.87 0.49 (+0.47%) ] gained 27 cents to $104.65, after touching a 2-1/2-year peak of almost $107 earlier this week.
0.49 (+0.47%) ] gained 27 cents to $104.65, after touching a 2-1/2-year peak of almost $107 earlier this week. On Wednesday, U.S. crude fell after stockpiles at the pricing point for benchmark West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma, surged 1.7 million barrels to a record of almost 40.3 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That caused the discount of WTI to European marker Brent to widen to almost $12 a barrel from about $8 the previous day.
Total U.S. crude inventories rose 2.5 million barrels last week, the EIA said, dwarfing the forecast for an increase of just 400,000 barrels in a Reuters poll. The weekly inventory data also showed drawdowns for gasoline and distillates were bigger than expected, reflecting improving demand.
Confirming previous non-Libyan estimates, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp, said that production has been cut to about half a million barrels per day from 1.6 million bpd by the war, as many foreign and local workers have left oil fields.
Libyan oil trade has been paralyzed as banks decline to clear payments in dollars due to U.S. sanctions, though Austrian energy group OMV said it had been buying small amounts of Libyan crude oil and would continue to do so.
"It appears that most of Libya's bridges with OECD countries in particular are already aflame or may have already been burned," Barclays Capital said.
"One can now easily imagine circumstances in which Libya's previously very short-haul exports of crude oil become very long-haul indeed."
A Libyan insurgent said rebels had retaken the heart of the closest city to the capital from forces loyal to Gaddafi on Wednesday evening in some of the fiercest fighting in almost three weeks of clashes.
Saudi Arabia has increased production to 9 million bpd, almost 1 million bpd above its current OPEC target. The kingdom says it currently holds spare capacity of 3.5 mln bpd.
Still, an OPEC delegate said on Wednesday that the group saw no need for an emergency meeting to discuss raising output.
Saudi Shi'ites staged another small protest in the kingdom's Eastern province, defying a ban on demonstrations, but Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said dialogue, not protest, was the best way to bring about change.
Saudi Arabia's ruling family has mobilized the power of its conservative religious establishment to prevent a wave of uprisings against Arab autocrats from roaring into its kingdom, home to more than a fifth of the world's known oil reserves.
The U.S. believes new sanctions should be put on Iran and existing ones more tightly enforced after talks on reining in Tehran's nuclear program failed in January, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.
China is confident that it can hold inflation to an average of 4 percent this year, the government's statistics chief said on Thursday, but a central bank adviser warned that soaring commodity costs were adding to upside risks.
The country reported crude oil imports of 19.95 million tones of crude oil or 5.2 million barrels per day in February, compared with 21.80 million tones in January.
Oil Spike Due to 'Market Pricing in Risk': Exxon CEO
The spike in the price of crude oil has been brought about by the “market pricing in the risk premium on the future oil supply,” rather than a lack of supply currently, said Rex Tillerson, CEO and chairman of Exxon Mobil.Tillerson, head of the world’s largest publicly-traded oil company [XOM 84.38 -0.22 (-0.26%)], was responding to the view of the Saudi Arabian oil minister. The cost of oil hovered below $105 a barrel.
-0.22 (-0.26%)], was responding to the view of the Saudi Arabian oil minister. The cost of oil hovered below $105 a barrel.“The $20 jump we've seen in the last few weeks is really the market pricing in the risk premium, as they [the Saudis] view it, on the future supply of oil,” he told CNBC.
Tillerson added oil is plentiful at this point, but the situation could change if delivery from a major supplier were to be disrupted.
He said that the disruption from Libya is of minor importance because the country's production accounts for only 1 ½ percent of the global oil supply.
The last time the supply chain was broken in the US was after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when the country’s strategic oil supply, a system in place throughout the world, had to be tapped, because oil tankers could not deliver crude oil to refineries in the gulf coast region.
Because each region in the world maintains strategic oil supplies to use in the event of a physical disruption, Tillerson said, the world is now better prepared for a crisis.
Asian shares fall amid ongoing Libya fighting
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was off 1.1 percent at 10,473.81, with nearly all sectors in negative territory.
Toyota Motor Corp. tumbled more than 2 percent, and major bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. fell 1.6 percent.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index retreated 0.4 percent to 23,722.14.
South Korea's Kospi extended losses after the central bank raised its key interest rate for the second time in three months Thursday. The index fell 1.2 percent to 1,978.41 in late morning trading.
Benchmarks in Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and mainland China also lost ground.
Bucking the trend was New Zealand's main stock index, which edged up less than 0.1 percent to 3,414.90 after the country's central bank cut its key interest rate to 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent. It described the decision as a pre-emptive move to soften the economic impact of last month's destructive earthquake in the city of Christchurch.
In New York on Wednesday, stocks slipped as crude oil prices hovered near $104 a barrel, continuing a three-week run of high prices that economists say could slow the economic recovery.
Fighting between rebels and forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi set two oil installations ablaze and inflicted yet more damage on the country's crippled energy industry.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.29, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,213.09.
The broader S&P index lost 1.80 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 1,320.02. The Nasdaq composite fell 14.05, or 0.5 percent, to 2,751.72.
In currencies, the dollar rose to 82.76 yen from 82.70 yen late Wednesday. The euro stood at $1.3916 from $1.3904.
Benchmark crude for April delivery rose 41 cents to $104.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 64 cents to settle at $104.38 a barrel Wednesday.
Aplikasi Kredit Perumahan AS Melonjak
Aplikasi untuk kredit perumahan di AS melonjak ke level tertinggi dalam 3 bulan minggu lalu, terdukung oleh adanya kemajuan pada pasar tenaga kerja, menurut salah satu grup industri hari Rabu. Mortgage Bankers Association mengatakan indeks aktivitas aplikasi kredit perumahan naik 155.5% minggu lalu, dan merupakan level tertinggi sejak minggu yang diakhiri tanggal 10 Desember serta kenaikan terbanyak sejak 11 Juni. Indeks pembiayaan kembali MBA naik 17.2%, sementara ukuran tingkat permintaan pinjaman untuk pembelian rumah naik 12.5%.“Membaiknya pasar tenaga kerja mulai membuka jalan untuk kemajuan pasar perumahan," menurut pernyataan Michael Fratantoni, wakil presiden riset dan ekonomi MBA. "Dan juga, tingkat suku bunga kredit perumahan ada d ibawah 5% untuk kedua minggunya, mempertahankan daya beli konsumen dan membawa menuju kenaikan jumlah aplikasi." Tingkat suku bunga 30 tahunan kredit perumahan ada pada 4.93% minggu ini, naik dari 4.84% pada minggu sebelumnya.
Gold dan hutang Eropa
Spot emas di $1,429.50/ons, naik 60 sen sejak ditutupnya pasar New York. Emas terus bergerak di rangenya sejak menyentuh level rekor tinggi di $1,445.05 hari Senin. Harga emas lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh masalah di Eropa daripada di Timur Tengah dengan masih adanya kekhawatiran mengenai masalah hutang zona Eropa yang belum terselesaikan menjelang pertemuan para pembuat kebijakan di hari Jumat, menurut Phillip Futures. "Ketidak pastian pasar keuangan menjadi alasan lain emas masih menarik untuk dijadikan sebagai safe haven bagi investor," katanya. Di Eropa, emas belum menunjukkan sinyal penguatan, emas masih stabil di kisaran EUR1,026/ons, dengan pernyataan yang optimis dari pejabat ECB yang memberi jalan keluar bagi permasalahan hutang yang terjadi di Portugal, Yunani, dan Irlandia.
Hangseng Today
Sederetan data ekonomi tersebut akan diawali dengan angka neraca perdagangan yang diperkirakan menyusut.
Secara teknikal seperti terilhat pada grafik berikut, indeks Hang Seng (HSI) saat ini masih berada dalam fase koreksi bearish setelah kemarin gagal menembus ke atas area 23880. Koreksi akan makin dalam menuju 23680 sebagai support terdekat sebelum menguji area 23435.
Sementara dengan Hang Seng yang masih tetap terjaga di dalam bullish trend channel, memiliki resisten terdekat di 23880, break ke atas area ini dapat memicu momentum bullish lanjutan menuju 24000.
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24140
Support Level : 23680, 23550, 23435
Trading Range : 23680 – 24070
Trend : Bearish
Libya : minyak mahal
Pasukan yang loyal pada Kol. Moammar Gadhafi mengintensifkan serangan pada para pemberontak. Pertikaian terjadi di sebelah barat Tripoli dan menghentikan serangan oposisi di sebelah selatan. Sementara itu, stasiun minyak utama Es Sider terbakar setelah pasukan udara Gadhafi membombardir komplek. Stasiun televisi Libya menyalahkan pasukan pemberontak atas peristiwa itu. Kilang minyak Ras Lanuf masih utuh namun tetap ditutup terkait adanya usaha untuk mengambil alih Ras Lanuf. Stasiun minyak Zawia dan Es Sider telah ditutup.
Minyak Nymex April menguat 47 sen di $104.85/barrel di Globex. Minyak ICE Brent crude 53 sen lebih tinggi di $116.47/barrel.
Gold: Fokus Liga Arab
Spot emas merosot 59 sen ke $1,428.20 setelah mencapai rekor tingginya di $1,444.40 per ons hari Senin.
Kontrak emas AS untuk April nyaris tidak bergerak dari $1,428.8 per ons. Kontrak komoditi tersebut mencapai rekor tingginya di $1,445.70 per ons hari Senin.
Rabu, 09 Maret 2011
Gold today
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Harga emas masih menguji trendline bullish yang terlihat di grafik 4 jam. Bias secara umum masih bullish dan tembusnya resistance di 1432.08 akan memberikan peluang bagi rebound ke arah resistance di 1444.30. Bias berpotensi menjadi bearish jika support di 1418.40 pecah, yang kemungkinan akan diikuti oleh pergerakan menuju support selanjutnya di area 1404.72.
Tangguhnya Ekonomi Perkuat Sterling
-Sterling menguat terhadap euro dan dolar setelah data tunjukkan tangguhnya ekonomi Inggris meski pemerintah laksanakan program pemangkasan defisit anggaran. Defisit perdagangan menyusut menjadi £7,1 M di Januari, lebih baik dari estimasi £8,5 M dan revisi publikasi sebelumnya £9,7 M. Ekspor meningkat 5,4% sedangkan impor turun 4%.Laporan KPMG tunjukkan meningkatnya indeks perekrutan tenaga kerja menjadi 62,7 dari 58,2 pada Januari, tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Harga retailer catatkan kenaikan tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir. Indeks harga jual, yang dirilis Konsorsium Retailer Inggris, naik 2,7% di Februari, lebih tinggi dari rilis sebelumnya 2,5%.
Membaiknya indikator ekonomi tentu akan berikan BoE lebih banyak ruang untuk kendalikan inflasi yang kini mencapai 4%, 2x lipat target bank sentral. BoE besok akan umumkan hasil pertemuan kebijakan moneternya. Meski BoE diprediksi kembali tahan suku bunga dan program pembelian obligasi, pasar telah antisipasi kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juni.
Pasar Eropa Mixed Ditengah Kembalinya Kekhawatiran Hutang
Indeks Eurostoxx 50 tergelincir 0,1%, sementara Indeks DAX Jerman justru menguat 0,29% dan indeks CAC Perancis kehilangan sekitar 0,1%. Di Inggris, Indeks FTSE bergerak 0,4% lebih rendah dalam waktu kurang dari 2 jam setelah bel pembukaan.
CEO BP: Maafkan Kelalaian Kami
"Sejak insiden itu, inilah kali pertama Saya hadir di hadapan Anda. Maka dari itu, Saya mengucapkan maaf atas semua yang terjadi," tutur Dudley. Sang CEO baru saja menjabat sebagai kepala perusahaan menggantikan Tony Hayward. Ia bertekad menggenjot performa karyawan serta rutin meng-evaluasi standar keamanan di lapangan. Isu ini sekarang menjadi fokus utama BP supaya kesalahan serupa tidak berulang. Dalam sisi operasional, staf tambang harus memastikan semua perangkat sudah bekerja normal sebelum proses pengeboran terlaksana. "BP meminta maaf. BP menuai akibatnya. BP kini berubah," tutup Dudley.
Sementara itu dalam menyikapi krisis Timur Tengah, Ia menyerukan industri untuk mengambil langkah aktif. Middle east dan Afrika Utara menyumbang 30 juta barel minyak per hari (sepertiga suplai dunia). Untuk mengantisipasi guncangan, industri energi disarankan berkoordinasi lebih intensif melalui pertemuan seperti ini.
Listing Saham China di Wall St. Lesatkan HSI
Sementara sektor perbankan diperkirakan menguat setelah bank sentral China menarik kembali sanksi giro wajib minimum bagi sejumlah institusi.
Indeks diperkirakan terus melesat jauh dari psikologis 23000 dan dikhawatirkan dapat menghampiri level 24000. Namun patut diwaspadai karena harga di area ini sudah cukup jenuh/overbought sehingga rentan terhadap koreksi dan profit taking.
emas stabil
Spot emas nyaris tidak berubah di level $1,427.80 per ons, keluar dari rekor tingginya di $1,444.40 per ons yang terjadi hari Senin.
Kontrak emas AS untuk bulan April naik $1.3 per ons ke $1,428.50 per ons. Emas mencapai rekor tingginya di level $1,445.70 hari Senin.
Hangseng Today
Secara teknikal indikator MACD dan channel bullish pada grafik berikut mengindikasikan bias bullish untuk jangka menengah menuju 23880 sebagai target selanjutnya. Break level ini akan melanjutkan tren bullish menuju 24000.
Sementara indikator stochastic mengindikasikan koreksi bearish untuk jangka pendek kembali ke support pertama di 23750 sebelum menuju area 23600.
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24220
Support Level : 23750, 23600, 23435
Trading Range : 23600 – 23880
Trend : Bullish
Waspada koreksi Hangseng
Secara teknikal indeks Hang Seng diperkirakan terus melesat jauh dari psikologis 23000 bahkan dikhawatirkan dapat menghampiri level 24000. Namun patut diwaspadai karena harga di area ini sudah cukup jenuh/overbought sehingga rentan terhadap koreksi dan profit taking. Maka bila Hang Seng mengalami koreksi, level support terdekat berada di area 23750 hingga di 23600.
Dari grafik berikut terlihat indikator MACD dan channel bullish telah mengindikasikan bias bullish untuk jangka menengah menuju 23880 sebagai target selanjutnya. Break level ini akan melanjutkan tren bullish menuju 24000.
Sementara indikator stochastic mengindikasikan koreksi bearish untuk jangka pendek kembali ke support pertama di 23750 sebelum menuju area 23600.
Resistance Level : 23880, 24000, 24220
Support Level : 23750, 23600, 23435
Trading Range : 23600 – 23880
Trend : Bullish
Perburuan Safe Haven
Emas masih bergerak dalam range yang relatif sempit hingga memasuki sesi Eropa hari Selasa. Meskipun menjauh dari rekor tertinggi, Emas masih mendapatkan dukungan dari kekhawatiran geopolitik dan ekonomi makro.Saat ini Emas ditawarkan pada kisaran $1434.95/1435.75 per ons, dan tengah berada tidak jauh dari level tinggi harian. Emas berhasil mencetak rekor tertinggi baru di $1444.30 pada hari kemarin, sebelum tergerus oleh aksi profit taking dan pemulihan Greenback.
Berdasarkan grafik, support terdekat berada pada MA 7-hari di $1425, yang diikuti oleh $1420 dan $1410. Sebaliknya, resistensi dapat ditemukan di $1444, kemudian $1445 dan $1450.
Profit-Taking Warnai Emas
Pemberontak kini menyusuri daerah pantai mendekati Tripoli; dimana pasukan setia Qaddafi tengah berusaha pertahankan ibukota Libya tersebut. Salah satu putra Muammar Gaddafi, Saadi, utarakan ayahnya belum kerahkan semua pasukan untuk hadapi pemberontak, demi lindungi Libya dari serangan asing. Dua surat kabar Arab dan televisi Al Jazeera beritakan Gaddafi sedang mencari kesepakatan untuk mundur; tapi pemberontak tidak percaya dengan janji Qaddafi. PBB perkirakan 1.000 orang telah tewas sejak meletusnya pemberontakan di Libya.
Melejitnya harga makanan dan komoditas telah picu kerusuhan di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Demonstran berhasil gulingkan pimpinan di Tunisia dan Mesir dan protes kini terlihat di Iran, Yaman, Qatar, dan Oman. Di Arab Saudi, website telah serukan demonstrasi pada tanggal 11 dan 20 Maret.
Bank Of America CEO Says No More Acquisitions
BofA’s investor day is particularly important because it’s the nation’s largest bank and faces some of the biggest challenges in the industry compared to some of its rivals. Today’s discussion gives the bank’s executives a chance to address the state of the bank’s most troubling issues like its legal battles regarding mortgage-backed securities and foreclosure problems.
Moynihan spoke to some of those problem in his opening remarks this morning and was blunt about the bank’s future challenges
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One of its biggest challenges will be grappling with costs related to its home lending unit. Moynihan called the unit the bank’s biggest legacy issue, and says the bank is “still eating large costs” because of it. He added that the bank could have relatively high expenses for the next two years as deals with mortgage-related expenses.
Of course, Moynihan is referring to BofA’s 2008 acquisition of the mortgage lender Countrywide—possibly the worst acquisition in the bank’s recent history. The deal has been a never-ending nightmare for the bank as its faced growing foreclosure problems and legal battles stemming from the Countrywide unit.
In 2010, Bank of America posted a $2.2 billion net loss last year, driven by writedowns on home-lending and credit-card units.
That’s why Moynihan promised investors this morning a “new era” at the bank—one that avoids any major acquisitions.
That’s probably a good idea considering Moynihan does not expect a boost in the bank’s overall assets for the next five years. Bank of America’s assets averaged $2.44 trillion in 2010, ending the year at $2.26 trillion.
So what’s Moynihan’s plan? Well, pretty much what any struggling business might do—cut costs.
Moynihan said the bank’s expenses relative to operating revenue is too high at was 62 % in 2010. He hopes to bring that number down to 55% or “as low as it can go” without hurting the bank’s operations. Before the financial crisis, that ratio hovered around 50%.
Still, Moynihan expects the bank’s earnings to return to more normal levels in 2012 and 2013, with pretax income around $35 billion to $40 billion.
Bank of America’s shares are up 3% this morning.
Kecemasan Suplai Meredup, Minyak Surut
Anggota OPEC dan non-OPEC telah tutupi kekurangan pasokan minyak dari Libya, ungkap Mentri Perminyakan Qatar, Mohammed Saleh al Sada. Kerusuhan telah kurangi produksi minyak Libya sebanyak 1 juta barel per hari, menurut Badan Energi Internasional. Libya pompa 1,59 juta barel minyak per hari di Januari.
OPEC tengah pertimbangkan kenaikan output minyak namun belum ambil keputusan, ungkap Mentri Perminyakan Kuwait Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah. Ketika ditanya apakah Kuwait telah tingkatkan produksi, Al-Sabah katakan, "Kami tidak tingkatkan produksi, masih tetap penuhi kuota." Namun, Al-Sabah yakin Arab Saudi telah tingkatkan produksi untuk tutupi kekurangan pasokan dari Libya
How Twitter Is Transforming Trading in Commodities
Passing through Giltner, Neb. early last August, farmer Mike Haley used his Twitter account to post a message, or tweet, about a particularly robust corn crop.
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“If I was @zjhunn or @cornfedfarmer I would be smiling, best corn iv seen is their area!”
What may have seemed like a passing compliment turned into a $200,000 profit.
The harvest belonged to brothers Zach and Brandon Hunnicutt—known on Twitter as “zjhunn” and “cornfedfarmer” respectively—fifth-generation south central Nebraska farmers who raise corn, soybeans, and popcorn on their 3,500 acres they share with their father and neighbor.
To Zach Hunnicutt, Haley’s tweet was a revelation. “We knew by that point that we weren’t going to have as high yield as we hoped for,” he said in a recent interview. “We knew that if ours might be the best out there,” he added, “that gave us the confidence to maybe hold out a little bit—for prices to go higher.”
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Corn prices, in fact, spiked nearly 50 percent between Haley’s tweet and the end of the year. By the time the Hunnicutts sold their corn in December, they were able to lock in an additional $1 per bushel, Zach Hunnicutt estimates—generating another 20 percent, or $200,000 or so, in profits. And about half of last year’s corn harvest is still in storage.
The back-and-forth between the Hunnicutts and Haley, a grain and cattle farmer in West Salem, Ohio, is part and parcel of the way in which Twitter is revolutionizing agriculture markets in the U.S.
Once a convenient outlet for boredom on the tractor, tweeting with fellow farmers has become a way for the participants in a far-flung and isolating business to compare notes on everything from weather conditions to new fertilizers. And now, commodities brokers and traders are paying close attention.
“A lot of time farmers are talking to other farmers and I’m sitting there listening,” says Thomas Elwood, aka @cornbroker, who trades corn and other grains on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “Twitter is kind of like a big coffee house,” he said.
To grains traders looking for any kind of edge in the markets, Twitter has become a game-changer. Whereas agricultural brokers and traders once spent hours conducting telephone surveys with farmers or embarking on so-called windshield surveys, in which they drove down Interstate 80 during harvest season to eyeball crops, they can now gather real-time updates on planting intentions and yields on Twitter.
About a year and a half ago, Tom Grisafi, who trades commodities from his basement office, put up a screen dedicated solely to Twitter feeds in his Valparaiso, Indiana home—right next to the more traditional screens showing corn and other grain prices. Six months later, he asked an analyst to monitor it regularly.
Grisafi, known as @IndianaGrainCo on Twitter, says he tweets with at least 15 farmers on a regular basis to check on crop conditions. “They’re really good about getting back to me on how much rainfall they received, what crops they’re planting, how the weather is,” he said.
Given that weather can vary dramatically across a given region, he says Twitter is particularly helpful in discerning where, for instance, a rainfall has been hardest.
Launched in 2006, the closely-held Twitter now boasts more than 200 million accounts and typically posts more than 130 million unique messages per day. The company’s of-the-moment tweets are now being used to track a multitude of trends, from potential box-office results to flu outbreaks.
But Twitter spokesman Matt Graves said the commodities market chatter and other projects aren’t the company’s focus. “We’re aware of that stuff,” he said in a phone conversation, “but we’re just about providing a platform where people can connect.”
Bank of America Profit Forecast Boosts Stock, Market
could have high expenses for the next two years as it wrestles with mortgage losses, but longer term it hopes for pretax profit of some $40 billion annually, its chief executive said. The profit forecast was higher than some investors had expected, and Bank of America's [BAC 14.64 0.61 (+4.35%) ] shares rose 3.9 percent to $14.58 in morning trading.
0.61 (+4.35%) ] shares rose 3.9 percent to $14.58 in morning trading. The bank lost more than $1.3 billion before taxes in 2010 and is still suffering from losses on mortgages made during the height of the mortgage boom.
"We are still eating large costs," Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said on Tuesday at the bank's first investor day since 2007.
But in a few years, those costs will fade, and the bank should be able to make $35 billion to $40 billion of pretax profit a year, he said.
Moynihan's comments show how hard it will be for the largest U.S. bank to improve its performance over the next few years. A standard lever for improving profitability — cutting costs — will be difficult.
The bank does not expect to boost its assets in the next five years, Moynihan said. Asset growth is another way that banks boost profits.
Moynihan said he is not interested in major acquisitions. Bank of America was built through a series of acquisitions over decades. In 2008, then CEO Kenneth Lewis acquired Countrywide Financial, boosting the bank's mortgage assets just as the financial crisis was intensifying.
Moynihan, 51, took over as CEO from Lewis in January 2010 and is trying to restore the bank to consistent profitability.
Formula for Profitability?Moynihan is pushing employees to sell more products to the bank's existing customers. The bank also hopes to grow by offering more services to customers outside the United States.
Bank of America reiterated plans to raise its dividend in the second half of 2011 pending regulatory approval, which also cheered investors. "No acquisitions, a dividend increase, cost reductions — sounds like a formula for a more profitable bank," said Marshall Front, chairman and chief investment officer at Front Barnett Associates in Chicago. Front Barnett owns Bank of America shares.
Moynihan spoke to an audience of about 300 investors and analysts in the Plaza Hotel ballroom. Applause was muted when he took stage and when he exited.
Bank of America's assets averaged $2.44 trillion in 2010, ending the year at $2.26 trillion.
Moynihan said the bank's efficiency ratio — expenses relative to operating revenue — is too high. It was 62 percent in 2010. Long term, he hopes to get it down to 55 percent or lower. From 2004 through 2007, Bank of America's efficiency ratio averaged closer to 50 percent.
Moynihan said he hopes to drive the ratio "as low as it can go" before it impacts how the business is run.
Mulally and Bill Ford Collect $100 Million Pay Package
As I walked to catch my train this morning I heard the first comment: "$100 million for the guys running Ford [F 14.4885 0.4785 (+3.42%) ]? Are you kidding me?"
0.4785 (+3.42%) ]? Are you kidding me?"  |
I wasn't surprised to hear it since the people who see me on the way to the office often have a comment on what's happening in the auto industry.
And I figured someone would have a thought or two to share about the pay package just announced for Ford Chairman Bill Ford and CEO Alan Mulally.
Officially, the Ford board awarded Mulally $56 million (before taxes) in Ford shares and Bill Ford $42.4 million (before taxes) in Ford shares.
Together, it is one of the richest pay packages ever given top executives in the auto industry.
Too much?
Depends on who you ask. If you ask Ford workers who have seen Mulally steer Ford back from the brink of bankruptcy, they probably won't grouse too much. Nor will we hear much from many Ford investors who have seen Ford shares go from $1.56 to more than $14 a share. Ford dealers? I doubt it. Their dealerships are raking in cash with one of the strongest line-ups around.
So who will blast the Ford board for rewarding Mulally and Ford with tens of millions? Mainly the average American who doesn't follow the company closely. Most will not realize that Bill Ford deferred compensation when the company was losing money. Nor will many of the Ford critics ask themselves this question: where would Ford be if Alan Mulally were never picked to run the company?
Would Ford have survived the auto meltdown?
Would it have climbed back into second place in the U.S. Auto market?
Would Ford have a line-up of cars that is no longer a punch line for the poor souls driving one?
We'll never know. But consider this. Almost every time a company sacks its CEO and starts looking for a new man to run the company, you hear the same thing, "We need to hire an 'Alan Mulally type' who will take us to the top." And for many fortune 500 companies, they would gladly pay $40 or $50 million if they knew the company would rebound as Ford has under Mulally.
Libya Rebel Gives Gaddafi 72 Hours to Quit
Rebels will not pursue Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over crimes they say he has committed if he steps down from his post in the next 72 hours, the head of the rebel National Libyan Council said on Tuesday. "If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes," Mustafa Abdel Jalil, an ex-justice minister, told Al Jazeera television by telephone. He said the deadline would not be extended beyond 72 hours.
The council is based in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi.
Earlier Tuesday, a rebel spokesman said a representative of Muammar Gaddafi offered talks on the Libyan leader's exit but that the council rejected any negotiations with a leader they do not trust.
"I confirm that we received contact from a Gaddafi representative seeking to negotiate Gaddafi's exit. We rejected this. We are not negotiating with someone who spilled Libyan blood and continues to do so. Why would we trust the guy today?" a media officer for the council, Mustafa Gheriani, told Reuters.
The Libyan government has denied holding talks with rebels, Al Arabiya television reported later. Al Arabiya did not give details or a source of its initial report.
But it then quoted a Libyan Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying the accusations of the Libyan National Council, an interim body set up by rebels, did not deserve a response.
Meanwhile, government forces attacked rebels with rockets, tanks and warplanes on western and eastern fronts, intensifying their offensive to crush the revolt against Gaddafi.
Rising casualties and the threats of hunger and a refugee crisis increased pressure on foreign governments to act, but they struggled to agree a strategy for dealing with the turmoil, many fearful of moving from sanctions alone to military action.
In besieged Zawiyah, the closest rebel-held city to Tripoli, trapped residents cowered from the onslaught on Tuesday.
"Fighting is still going on now. Gaddafi's forces are using tanks. There are also sporadic air strikes ... they could not reach the center of the town which is still in the control of the revolutionaries," a resident called Ibrahim said by phone.
In the east, much of which is under rebel control, warplanes bombed rebel positions around the oil port of Ras Lanuf.
Rebel euphoria seemed to have dimmed. "People are dying out there. Gaddafi's forces have rockets and tanks," Abdel Salem Mohamed, 21, told Reuters near Ras Lanuf. "You see this? This is no good," he said of his light machinegun.
Britain and France led a drive at the United Nations for a no-fly zone over Libya which would prevent Gaddafi from unleashing air raids or from flying in reinforcements. The Arab League and several Gulf states have also called for such a step.
"It is unacceptable that Colonel Gaddafi unleashes so much violence on his own people and we are all gravely concerned about what would happen if he were to try to do that on an even greater basis," British Foreign Secretary William Hague said.
Russia and China, who have veto power in the U.N. Security Council, are cool towards the idea of a no-fly zone.
The U.S. government, whose interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan enraged many of the world's Muslims, said it was weighing up military options and that action should be taken only with international backing.
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