Selasa, 24 Juli 2012

Penurunan Emas Terbatas Jelang ‘IMF-Yunani’

Penurunan Emas Terbatas Jelang ‘IMF-Yunani’ Harga Emas dunia kembali bergerak melemah diperdagangan hari Selasa (24/07) setelah kemarin merosot tajam akibat investor khawatir dengan masalah keuangan di Spanyol dan Yunani.
Selain itu penguatan dollar AS (USD) yang menyentuh level tertinggi dalam dua tahun terhadap euro turut menekan logam mulia. Harga Emas kini tercatat pada kisaran US$1,575.20 per troy ons dari harga penutupan pada US$1,576.65. Pasar emas khususnya di Asia kini nampak terus bergerak sideways lantaran terbebani pembicaraan deflasi karena USD yang menguat serta akibat epidemi yang berkembang di Eropa.
Pada sesi sebelumnya, emas tertekan oleh anjloknya bursa saham AS dan minyak mentah setelah Spanyol menyebutkan jatuh kian dalam menuju resesi di kuartal kedua, sehingga mendorong Spanyol mendekati tahap permintaan bailout secara penuh.
Namun penurunan Emas nampak terbatas seiring Euro mengalami rebound lantaran pasar menyambut positif pihak International Monetary Fund (IMF) yang akan memulai diskusi dengan pemerintah Yunani hari ini. Pertemuan tersebut akan membahas bagaimana mengembalikan program ekonomi Yunani pada jalurnya kembali.
Dan kalangan pelaku pasar mulai memperkirakan dengan lemahnya kondisi perekonomian global akan memicu the Fed untuk meluncurkan quantitative easing tambahan, sehingga pergerakan penurunan emas kembali akan terbatas dan justru secara bertahap akan membangun pondasi pemulihan.

Sterling Kritis di Lembah Degradasi

Sterling Kritis di Lembah Degradasi  Mata uang Inggris – Pound nampak terjebak di zona degradasi (Selasa, 24/07) setelah sesi kemarin terpuruk hingga pecah ke bawah level $1.55 akibat kian memanasnya krisis Eropa terkait masalah keuangan yang melanda negara Spanyol..

Sterling ikut terseret lemah oleh mata uang tunggal Euro setelah sentimen investor terpukul oleh pemberitaan bahwa dua negara bagian di Spanyol yaitu Valencia dan Murcia tengah mengajukan permintaan bantuan dari pemerintah pusat untuk membayar hutangnya. Sehingga data tersebut bila ditambah bukti-bukti pelemahan ekonomi Inggris sendiri, akhirnya turut membebani Sterling.

Sentimen negatif kian bertambah setelah perekonomian Spanyol merosot lebih dalam menuju resesi di kuartal kedua, seiring kecemasan investor terhadap krisis pendanaan di negaranya mendorong Spanyol meminta bailout secara penuh. Output ekonomi menyusut 0.4% di kuartal II setelah anjlok sebanyak 0.3% di kuartal pertama, menurut Bank of Spain dalam laporan bulanannya.

Sementara angka penjualan ritel Inggris pekan lalu turut mengindikasikan perekonomian masih sulit untuk keluar dari resesi, seiring dengan minutes pertemuan Bank of England mendorong prospek stimulus moneter lebih lanjut. GBP kini tercatat melemah di kisaran $1.5520-an setelah terjungkal hingga $1.5482 di awal pekan kemarin dan ditutup pada kisaran $1.5509.

Lagi, Rally Euro Terjegal Aksi Moody’s

Lagi, Rally Euro Terjegal Aksi Moody’s Mata uang tunggal Uero hari ini (24/07) bergerak tidak jauh dari kisaran rendah dalam 2 tahun terakhir terhadap dollar (USD) dan masih berada di area terendah sekitar 12 tahun terhadap Yen akibat yield obligasi pemerintah Spanyol kini bercokol di kisaran 7.5 %.

Pesimisme pasar kian meningkat setelah lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s Investor Services memangkas peringkat outlook menjadi negatif untuk negara Jerman yang selama ini memiliki level Aaa, kemudian Belanda dan Luxembourg ditengah krisis utang yang terus menerus melanda kawasan Eropa Aksi lepas posisi masih mewarnai investor hari ini menyusul masih merebaknya sentimen negatif setelah di rilisnya proyeksi pemerintah Spanyol bahwa negerinya akan mengalami resesi di tahun 2013 mendatang menyusul pemberitaan dua pemerintah daerahnya menyatakan meminta bailout.

Dua pemerintah otonomi negara Spanyol pada distrik Valencia dan Murcia menyatakan tengah meminta bantuan pemerintah pusat sebesar €18 milyar untuk membayar hutangnya dan membantu keuangan daerah. Sontak kabar tersebut kian menambah kekhawatiran bahwa ekonomi terbesar ke-4 zona Euro mungkin akan memerlukan bailout internasional dalam skala besar. Euro kini bergerak sideways di kisaran $1.2125 setelah sesi kemarin terjungkal hingga $1.2067 dan berakhir ditutup di level $1.2117.

Penurunan Emas Terbatas Jelang ‘IMF-Yunani’

Penurunan Emas Terbatas Jelang ‘IMF-Yunani’ Harga Emas dunia kembali bergerak melemah diperdagangan hari Selasa (24/07) setelah kemarin merosot tajam akibat investor khawatir dengan masalah keuangan di Spanyol dan Yunani.

Selain itu penguatan dollar AS (USD) yang menyentuh level tertinggi dalam dua tahun terhadap euro turut menekan logam mulia. Harga Emas kini tercatat pada kisaran US$1,575.20 per troy ons dari harga penutupan pada US$1,576.65. Pasar emas khususnya di Asia kini nampak terus bergerak sideways lantaran terbebani pembicaraan deflasi karena USD yang menguat serta akibat epidemi yang berkembang di Eropa.

Pada sesi sebelumnya, emas tertekan oleh anjloknya bursa saham AS dan minyak mentah setelah Spanyol menyebutkan jatuh kian dalam menuju resesi di kuartal kedua, sehingga mendorong Spanyol mendekati tahap permintaan bailout secara penuh.

Namun penurunan Emas nampak terbatas seiring Euro mengalami rebound lantaran pasar menyambut positif pihak International Monetary Fund (IMF) yang akan memulai diskusi dengan pemerintah Yunani hari ini. Pertemuan tersebut akan membahas bagaimana mengembalikan program ekonomi Yunani pada jalurnya kembali.
Dan kalangan pelaku pasar mulai memperkirakan dengan lemahnya kondisi perekonomian global akan memicu the Fed untuk meluncurkan quantitative easing tambahan, sehingga pergerakan penurunan emas kembali akan terbatas dan justru secara bertahap akan membangun pondasi pemulihan.

QE Sebagai Indikator Pergerakan Emas

QE Sebagai Indikator Pergerakan EmasHarga beli emas dalam bentuk dollar AS bergerak melemah ke $1,583 hari Senin pagi kemarin, sesuai dengan pergerakan harga pekan lalu, sementara bursa saham juga bergerak melemah bersama naiknya harga obligasi AS, dengan pasar yang masih memfokuskan diri pada pernyataan Ben Bernanke dari Federal Reserve AS sebelum kongres yang masih berlangsung hingga besok.

Harga untuk perak juga turun ke $27.11, nyaris 1% dari penutupan pekan lalu – saat beberapa komoditi industru juga bergerak melemah.Euro terhadap dollar AS kembali bergerak kebawah $1.22, walau saat ini Euro kembali naik dan bertahan dekat $1.23.“Terus awasi pergerakan dollar AS dan bursa saham sebagai petunjuk pergerakan untuk emas”, dikatakan David Govett, seorang manajer logam mulia dari kantor pialang marex Spectron.

“Tetapi secara keseluruhan, pasar masih akan stabil, bergerak tipis dan masih bergerak waspada seperti biasanya”.Pasar kembali dalam mode wait-and-see menjelang pernyataan dari Ben Bernanke.“Adanya sinyal akan terwujudnya quantitative easing akan mendorong naik harga emas”, dikatakan analis dari Jinrui Futures, Chen Min di China, “Walau kami pikir adanya QE3 mungkin kecil sekali kemungkinannya untuk muncul, dimana Fed mungkin akan melakukannya dalam beberapa bulan kedepan”.“Ia (Bernanke) tentunya mengatakan bahwa QE mungkin saja ada”, ditambahkan Mitul Kotecha, seorang head of global foreign exchange dari Credit Agricole yang berbasis di Hong Kong. “Tetapi pasar mungkin masih akan mengalami kekecewaan”.

fundamental analysis July 24th 2012

Euro slumps broadly on Spain bailout fears

The euro fell to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar and a nearly 12-year trough against the yen on Monday on fears Spain is edging closer to needing a full-scale bailout that the euro zone cannot afford. Ten-year Spanish bond yields jumped as high as 7.596 percent, the highest since the euro was created in 1999. That saw the euro drop for a fourth straight day against the dollar to hit a low of $1.2067, the weakest since June 2010.

Traders and analysts say the euro looks poised to take out the key $1.20 threshold. A break beneath that could see the currency head towards its June 2010 low of $1.1875, which marked the weakest since March 2006.
    
"With the 10-year yield above 7 percent and quickly approaching 8 percent, we're at that moment where it starts to look a lot more real than it was even just a few weeks ago," said John Doyle, foreign-exchange strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington, referring to a full-scale sovereign bailout for Spain.
    
Adding to pressure on the euro was a weekend report that the International Monetary Fund may refuse to contribute further funding for Greece. The IMF dismissed the report, saying it was "supporting Greece in overcoming its economic difficulties."

Pain in Spain hits Wall St

U.S. stocks fell for a second straight session on Monday, as Spain appeared closer to needing a national bailout and poor corporate results weighed on the market.Weak results from McDonald's Corp added to the cautious tone on Wall Street. Materials stocks were among the day's weakest, hurt by across-the-board declines in commodity prices.
   
Still, stocks ended well off the day's lows, rebounding from their initial plunge. Stocks appeared to stabilize as the S&P 500 approached its 50-day moving average of 1,332.98, a technical support level that could trigger more losses if convincingly broken.
   
Overall, three stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, a signal that the afternoon rebound was concentrated among larger-cap shares. On the Nasdaq, about four stocks fell for every one that rose.
   
"The sell-off this morning was overdone, and obviously, the market felt that way, too," said Eric Green, senior portfolio manager and director of research at Penn Capital Management in Philadelphia, which oversees $6.5 billion.
   
"Nothing incrementally negative came out, but obviously, we're still worried about the situation there.The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 101.11 points, or 0.79 percent, to close at 12,721.46. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> declined 12.14 points, or 0.89 percent, to 1,350.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 35.15 points, or 1.20 percent, to close at 2,890.15.

Gold off lows on safety bids, outperforms equities

Gold slipped on Monday as Spain's economic troubles fueled euro zone debt fears, but safe-haven bids pulled bullion off session lows, as it outperformed equities and other commodities. Gold came under early pressure from tumbling U.S. equities and crude oil after Spain said it sank deeper into recession in the second quarter. Many investors worried the euro zone's No. 4 economy was closer to seeking a full bailout.
    
Gold pared losses as the euro rebounded after the International Monetary Fund said it would start discussions with the Greek authorities on July 24 on how to bring Greece's economic program back on track.
   
Last week, worries about a global economic slowdown and deflation sent bullion slumping toward $1,560 an ounce several times, but gold held above that level. The metal has been moving in a range between $1,527 and $1,655 in the past three months.U.S. COMEX August gold futures <GCQ2> settle down $5.40 at $1,577.40 an ounce, with trading volume in line with its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Tumbles Most This Year on European Debt Crisis

Oil plunged the most this year on concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is deepening and as a Chinese central-bank adviser said the country’s economic expansion may slow further. Futures fell 4 percent as the cost of insuring Spanish debt surged to a record. Greece’s creditors will gather this week amid doubts that the nation will meet bailout targets. Growth in China, the second-biggest crude consuming country, may cool for a seventh straight quarter, said Song Guoqing, a member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee.

“Worries about the European debt crisis are overshadowing everything else,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The prospect of a deflationary spiral is back haunting us, especially given the signs of a Chinese slowdown. This is bad for the outlook for commodity demand, especially oil.”
 
Crude oil for September delivery fell $3.69 to settle at $88.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest decrease for a front-month contract since Dec. 14. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

Nikkei seen falling as Spain worries grow

Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to fall on Tuesday after worries that Spain may not be able to avoid a bailout pummelled risk assets on global markets. Investors are also concerned that Japan's earning season, which starts in earnest later this week, is unlikely to give the market a fillip as companies brace for a slowdown in the global economy.

On Monday the Nikkei shed 1.9 percent to 8,508.32 <.N225>, its lowest close sine June 8. The broader Topix index <.TOPX> slipped 1.8 percent to 720.62, having fallen in 11 of the past 12 sessions. World equity markets sold off and the euro set new two-year lows against the U.S. dollar on Monday after reports that more indebted regions in Spain need financial aid fueled fears that the country may need a bailout.
 
As losses mount, retail Japanese investors with long positions in margin trading may also be forced to liquidate positions to access collateral, adding to the downward pressure, an analyst at a Japanese brokerage warned.

Seoul shares seen extending falls on Spain bailout fears

Seoul shares are expected on Tuesday to extend their decline from the previous session, as fears that Spain could be pushed into seeking a bailout continue to sap investor appetite for risk. U.S. stocks fell for a second straight session on Monday but ended well off the day's low, rebounding from an initial plunge and stabilizing near the S&P 500's 50-day moving average.

Still, investors will be taking aggressive bets off the table after Spanish media reported up to half-a-dozen more regions may follow Valencia in requesting central government aid, pushing Spanish bond yields to a euro-era high of 7.5 percent, well above the 7 percent danger threshold. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> dropped 1.84 percent to a one-and-a-half week closing low of 1,789.45 points on Monday.

Hong Kong stock market to delay opening due to typhoon

Hong Kong's stock market will delay its opening on Tuesday morning due to Typhoon Vicente. Should the typhoon signal of 8 and higher remain in force after 9 a.m. (0100 GMT), the Hong Kong stock exchange will remain closed in the morning. If the signal of 8 or higher is still in place by noon, the stock markets will be closed for the whole day.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, July 24th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2060-1.2230
Down
1.2290
1.2110

1.2170
1.2060
1.2230
1.2230
1.2050
USD/JPY
77.50-79.20
Up
79.30
77.50
78.10

79.20
77.50
78.70
76.90
GBP/USD
1.5430-1.5610
Down
1.5670
1.5490

1.5550
1.5430
1.5610
1.5610
1.5430
USD/CHF
0.9800-0.9970
Up
0.9980
0.9800
0.9860

0.9970
0.9800
0.9920
0.9740
AUD/USD
1.0190-1.0360
Down
1.0420
1.0240

1.0300
1.0190
1.0360
1.0360
1.0180
NIKKEI
8260-8400
Down
8500
8320

8380
8260
8440
8440
8250
HANGSENG
18780-18960
Down
19020
18840

18900
18780
18960
18960
18770
KOSPI
233.90-235.70
Down
236.30
234.50

235.10
233.90
235.70
235.70
233.80
GOLD
1568.50-1591.00
Down
1598.50
1576.00

1583.50
1568.50
1591.00
1591.00
1568.50

Technical Analysis, July 24th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2060-1.2230
Down
1.2290
1.2110

1.2170
1.2060
1.2230
1.2230
1.2050
USD/JPY
77.50-79.20
Up
79.30
77.50
78.10

79.20
77.50
78.70
76.90
GBP/USD
1.5430-1.5610
Down
1.5670
1.5490

1.5550
1.5430
1.5610
1.5610
1.5430
USD/CHF
0.9800-0.9970
Up
0.9980
0.9800
0.9860

0.9970
0.9800
0.9920
0.9740
AUD/USD
1.0190-1.0360
Down
1.0420
1.0240

1.0300
1.0190
1.0360
1.0360
1.0180
NIKKEI
8260-8400
Down
8500
8320

8380
8260
8440
8440
8250
HANGSENG
18780-18960
Down
19020
18840

18900
18780
18960
18960
18770
KOSPI
233.90-235.70
Down
236.30
234.50

235.10
233.90
235.70
235.70
233.80
GOLD
1568.50-1591.00
Down
1598.50
1576.00

1583.50
1568.50
1591.00
1591.00
1568.50