Dollar AS Manfaatkan Kekhawatiran Global

Dollar AS terus bergerak menguat pada perdagangan hari Kamis di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap laju pertumbuhan di China dan Eropa, sehari setelah Ketua Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke menurunkan prospek pertumbuhan AS.

Indeks Dollar, yang mengukur kinerja mata uang AS terhadap 6 mata uang utama lainnya, naik hingga ke 75.443 dari level 74.791 pada akhir sesi perdagangan Amerika hari Rabu.

 

Perburuan safe haven yang telah mengangkat performa Greenback terjadi pasca Bernanke dalam pidatonya menyoroti tentang lambatnya pemulihan AS dan kekhawatiran hutang zona Euro, yang menekan pasar saham AS bergerak lebih rendah. Tidak adanya sinyal dari Bernanke mengenai pelonggaran kuantitatif lanjutan dalam waktu dekat telah memberi kesempatan Dollar AS untuk bergerak lebih tinggi.

 

"Prospek untuk QE3 nampaknya masih jauh, mengingat Fed dalam pernyataannya tidak memberikan indikasi jika tengah mempertimbangkan hal tersebut," kata Simon Smith, kepala ekonom FxPro di London. "Penurunan proyeksi pertumbuhan oleh Fed telah mendukung sikap kehati-hatian di pasar," tambahnya.

 

Risk appetite juga kian tergerus setelah HSBC merilis PMI manufaktur China turun lebih dalam dari perkiraan menjadi 50,1, yang sedikit di atas level tanpa pertumbuhan 50,0. Anjloknya PMI manufaktur di zona Euro ke level rendah 20-bulan juga mendukung sentimen negatif pasar.

Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default

It’s the $616 billion question: Does the euro crisis have a hidden A.I.G.?

No one seems to be sure, in large part because the world of derivatives is so murky. But the possibility that some company out there may have insured billions of dollars of European debt has added a new tension to the sovereign default debate.

In years past, when financial crises in Argentina and Russia left those countries unable to make good on their government debts, they simply defaulted. But this time around, swaps and other sorts of contracts have become so common and so intertwined in the financial markets that there are fears among regulators and financial players about how a Greek default would play out among derivatives holders.

The looming uncertainties are whether these contracts — which insure against possibilities like a Greek default — are concentrated in the hands of a few companies, and if these companies will be able to pay out billions of dollars to cover losses during a default.

If there were a single company standing behind many of these contracts, that company would be akin to the American International Group of the euro crisis. The American insurer needed a $182 billion federal bailout during the financial crisis because it had insured the performance of mortgage bonds through derivatives and could not pay on all of them.

Even regulators seem unsure of whether a Greek default would reveal such concentrated risk in the hands of just a few companies. Spokeswomen for the central banks of both Europe and the United States would not say whether their researchers had studied holdings of such contracts among nonbank entities like insurance companies and hedge funds.

Asked about derivatives tied to Europe at a Wednesday press conference, Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the direct exposure is small but that “a disorderly default in one of those countries would no doubt roil financial markets globally. It would have a big impact on credit spreads, on stock prices and so on. And so in that respect I think the effects in the United States would be quite significant.”

Derivatives traders and analysts are debating just how much money is involved in these contracts and what sort of threat they pose to markets in Europe and the United States. On the one hand, just over $5 billion is tied up in credit-default swap contracts that will pay out if Greece defaults, according toMarkit, a financial data firm based in London. That is less than 1 percent the size of Greece’s economy, but that is a conservative calculation that counts protections banks have in place offsetting their positions, and is called the net exposure.

The less conservative figure, the gross exposure, is $78.7 billion for Greece, according to Markit. And there are many other types of contracts, like about $44 billion in other guarantees tied to Greece, according to the Bank of International Settlements. The gross exposure of the five most financially pressed European Union countries — Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain — is about $616 billion. And the broader figure on all derivatives from those countries is unknown.

The pervasiveness of these opaque contracts has complicated negotiations for European officials, and it underscores calls for more transparency in the derivatives market.

The uncertainty, financial analysts say, has led European officials to push for a “voluntary” Greek bond financing solution that may sidestep a default, rather than the forced deals of other eras.

“There’s not any clarity here because people don’t know,” said Christopher Whalen, editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst.

“This is why the Europeans came up with this ridiculous deal, because they don’t know what’s out there. They are afraid of a default. The industry is still refusing to provide the disclosure needed to understand this. They’re holding us hostage. The Street doesn’t want you to see what they’ve written.”

Regulators are aware of this problem. Financial reform packages on both sides of the Atlantic mandated many changes to the derivatives market, and regulators around the globe are drafting new rules for these contracts that are meant to add transparency as well as security. But they are far from finished and could take years to put into effect.

Darrell Duffie, a professor who has studied derivatives at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, said that he was concerned that regulators may not have adequately studied what contagion might occur among swaps holders, in the case of a Greek default.

Regulators, he said, “have access to everything they need to have. Whether they’ve collected all the information and analyzed it is different question. I worry because many of those leaders have said there’s no way we’re going to let Greece default. Does that mean they haven’t had conversations about what happens if Greece defaults? Is their commitment so severe that they haven’t had real discussions about it in the backrooms?”

Regulators aren’t saying much. When asked what data the Federal Reserve had collected on American financial companies and their swaps tied to European debt, Barbara Hagenbaugh, a spokeswoman, referred to a speech made by Mr. Bernanke in May in which he did not mention derivatives tied to Greece.

At the Wednesday press conference, Mr. Bernanke said that commonly cited data on derivatives do not take into account the offsetting positions banks have on their Greek exposures. And with those positions, he said, even if there is a Greek default, “the effects are very small.”

At the European Central Bank, Eszter Miltenyi, a spokeswoman, said: “This is much too sensitive I think for us to have a conversation on this.”

On Wall Street, traders are debating whether the industry’s process for unwinding credit-default swaps would run smoothly if Greece defaulted. The process is tightly controlled by a small group of bankers who meet in an industry group called the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

But the smoothness of the process would be irrelevant if the risk were concentrated in just a few weak institutions.

The process is fairly well developed, but it has been little tested on the debt of countries. For the most part, Wall Street has cashed in on credit-default swaps tied to corporations’ debt.

For most purposes, determining whether a default occurred in a country’s debt falls to ratings agencies like Fitch and Moody’s. But for the derivatives market, a committee of I.S.D.A. makes the call.

If the committee decides there was a default, it passes the baton to Markit, which is partly owned by the banks. Markit holds an auction to determine how much value has been lost on the debt, and that determines how much money is paid out to the parties that purchased the insurance.

Marc Barrachin, who runs the auctions, said there was no reason to worry about the process.

“The process is very smooth, very well understood by market participants,” said Mr. Barrachin, the director of credit products at Markit.

“I mean if you go back to 2008 right in the fall, in five days we had auctions for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Lehman Brothers, and two weeks after that you had Washington Mutual. I go back to that period of stress and the orderly settlements of large amounts of credit derivatives, for names that were widely followed, were testament of the efficiency of the auction system.”

In the case of A.I.G., there was not an unwind process run by I.S.D.A. because A.I.G.’s contracts were tied to mortgage bonds. Those sorts of derivatives pay out money over time, whereas derivatives tied to a country’s debt pay out on one occasion: if a default occurs. That makes sovereign derivatives more similar to derivatives on corporate bonds and different in some ways from the situation at A.I.G.

The uncertainty around how a sovereign default would course through the derivatives market had greatly increased the price premiums banks were charging to put on new derivatives trades related to European countries. As of last week, the price to insure against default on $10 million of Greek debt was $1.9 million per year, up from $775,000 a year ago, according to Markit.

“There is lack of transparency and visibility in these products, and that increases the risk,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, a boutique banking firm in New York.

Fed & Data Zona Euro Bebani Bursa Eropa

 Eropa mengikuti pergerakan di bursa Amerika dan Asia dengan diperdagangkan melemah pada sesi hari Kamis, menyusul suramnya pandangan Federal Reserve terhadap perekonomian dan lemahnya data zona Euro, menambah alasan investor untuk menjadi lebih khawatir.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 melemah hampir 1%, sedangkan indeks DAX Jerman kehilangan lebih dari 1% dan indeks CAC Perancis anjlok hingga 1,1%. Di Inggris, indeks FTSE bergerak 0,85% lebih rendah dalam 2 jam pertama perdagangan.

 

Penilaian Fed pada hari kemarin yang menggambarkan suramnya prospek perekonomian telah mengikis kepercayaan konsumen. Fed menyatakan tentang terjadinya perlambatan baru pada pemulihan ekonomi AS, yang mendorong bank sentral untuk memangkas target GDP AS menjadi ke kisaran 2,7%-2,9% dari sebelumnya 3,1%-3,3%.

 

Selain itu, data ekonomi makro zona Euro juga nampaknya gagal mengangkat sentimen investor. PMI manufaktur Jerman dirilis turun lebih dalam dibandingkan perkiraan menjadi 54,9 pada bulan Juni dari 57,7 pada bulan Mei.

Bernanke Buka Peluang QE

 Feds, Bernanke akan membuka peluang untuk melakukan stimulus moneter baru apabila pemulihan ekonomi yang diperkirakannya akan gagal terwujud.

Feds akan mempersiapkan tindakan tambahan, tentunya bila kondisi memungkinkan, termasuk untuk pembelian kembali obligasi, dikatakan Bernanke setelah para pejabat bank sentral AS bertemu di Washington.

 

Ekonomi AS mungkin akan mengatasi masalah naiknya harga komoditi energi dan gangguan manufaktur Jepang, dikatakannya. Tapi, dengan turunnya harga perumahan, tingginya pengangguran dan lemahnya sistem keuangan mungkin akan menghambat pemulihan untuk jangka panjang, dikatakannya.

 

Para pejabat pembuat kebijakan dalam pernyataannya mengetahui melambatnya pemulihan ekonomi bahkan setelah mereka menyetujui pembelian obligasi senilai $600 miliar yang dijadwalkan bulan ini untuk babak ke 2 yang disebut dengan QE.

 

Sementara perkiraan untuk pengangguran dan inflasi sudah membaik sebelum dilakukannya pembelian obligasi, dikatakan Bernanke yang kurang yakin sampai berapa lama masalah ekonomi di AS ini akan berlangsung.

Kepercayaan Italia minus

 konsumen Italia menurun  pada bulan Juni sebagai dampak pesimisnya prospek lapangan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Kantor statistik nasional (ISTAT) mengatakan telah terjadi penurunan indeks sentimen dari 106.5  menjadi 105.8  bulan lalu. Bahkan para ekonom memperkirakan penurunan berlanjut ke 105.3.

 

Moody Investors Service menempatkan peringkat kredit Italia yang dikaji minggu lalu mungkin mengalami downgrade demi hambatan pada pertumbuhan. Langkah serupa bulan lalu, Standard & Poor menurunkan rating kredit outlook Italia menjadi negatif dari stabil karena pemulihan ekonomi yang lambat.

 

Dalam kesempatan yang sama, demi merangsang kembali pengeluaran konsumen dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, Perdana Menteri Silvio Berlusconi merencanakan untuk merombak sistem perpajakan negara.

The Fed Seret Emas dari High 7-pekan

 turun dari level tertinggi 7 minggu di Pasar London karena bank sentral AS menghapus spekulasi bahwa akan menambah stimulus dan dollar AS menguat, memangkas permintaan logam mulia ini sebagai investasi alternatif.

 

Dollar menguat terhadap 6 mata uang utama dunia karena kebijakan Fed semalam dan kemungkinan PM Yunani George Papandreou akan mengalami kesulitan untuk mendapatkan persetujuan parlemen untuk rancangan paket pemangkasan anggaran dan penjualan aset minggu depan.

 

“Orang saat ini mengharapkan tidak ada QE3,” dan itu merupakan faktor yang menekan harga emas, kata Bernard Sin, kepala perdagangan mata uang dan logam di MKS Finance SA. “Pasar bereaksi sedikit terhadap dollar dan kita melihat sedikit terjadi aksi profit taking. Dalam jangka panjang, orang akan kembali ke emas.”

 

Emas jatuh sebanyak $20 dari level tertingginya semalam ke $1537.20 per troy ons di pasar London. Emas kemarin mencetak level tertinggi di $1558.25, harga tertinggi sejak 2 Mei. 

Faktor akan penguatan EMAS

Emas terlihat masih di dalam jalurnya menuju $1600 tahun ini. Berikut adalah faktor-faktor fundamental pendukung kenaikan harga emas:

• Dollar AS yang belum akan menguat secara konsisten karena masih belum pulihnya perekonomian AS ditambah dengan beban hutang dan defisit anggaran AS yang membesar. Rasio hutang AS terhadap GDP-nya sudah hampir 100%.
• Tingkat inflasi dunia yang cenderung naik. Emas sering dijadikan instrumen lindung nilai aset terhadap inflasi.
• Ketidakpastian penyelesaian krisis hutang di Eropa yang menimbulkan kekhawatiran bagi pelaku pasar akan terjadinya resesi lanjutan di Eropa dan mungkin bisa berkembang ke negara lain.
• Permintaan Emas yang meningkat lebih tinggi dibandingkan produksi Emas. Menurut catatan World Gold Council (WGC), permintaan emas mengalami kenaikan 11% pada kuartal pertama 2011 dibandingkan dengan tingkat produksi emas yang malah turun 4% pada periode yang sama.
• Tren penambahan kepemilikan emas oleh bank-bank sentral dunia. Menurut WGC, pada Q1 2011, jumlah pembelian emas oleh bank sentral telah mencapai 129 ton. Jumlah ini lebih tinggi dari total pembelian emas bank sentral selama 2010.

Bernanke: Don’t Blame The Fed For Currency Wars And (Commodity) Inflation

 a speech at the International Monetary Conference on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke once again tried to distance his institution’s policies from the current explosive rise in commodity prices, which in turn has triggered inflation to become a major concern in the U.S.  Claiming that the rise in oil, food, and other raw materials is an effect of supply and demand (i.e. strong demand growth emanating from emerging market growth along with lagging supply growth), Bernanke told critics that both the Fed’s program of long term asset purchases and extremely low interest rates are not responsible for causing imbalances in the world economy.

As has been the case for a while, Bernanke attempted to downplay fears of inflation, calling the phenomenon transitory, while asking market followers to look at developing economies for explanation instead in solid growth from emerging markets. (Read Steve Schaefer’s take, Bernanke Calls Slow Recovery ‘Frustrating,’ Sticks To Second Half Optimism).

The bearded academic noted that prices for oil, corn, and industrial metals such s aluminum and copper saw substantial gains in recent years.  In terms of oil, Bernanke pointed one finger at OPEC, noting that while non-OPEC production has lagged, OPEC member countries haven’t stepped up to compensate for lost production stemming from a protracted civil conflict in Libya, where Colonel Muammar al-Gadhafi refuses to step down.  “With the demand for oil rising rapidly and the supply of crude stagnant, increases in oil prices are hardly a puzzle,” said Bernanke.

As the U.S. economy shows increasing signs of cooling, with unemployment rates still stubbornly high and an ailing housing market, American consumers, responsible for sixty to seventy percent of GDP, have felt the sting of rising food and gas prices, which have remained at or near $4.00 a gallon for much of the first quarter.  Bernanke, though, noted that most of the rise in consumer price inflation stems from a rise in gas prices.  “The rise in commodity prices has directly increased the rate of inflation while also adversely affecting consumer confidence and consumer spending,” explained the Bernank, adding that “most FOMC participants currently see the recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain subdued in the medium term.” (Read No Recovery Possible While U.S. Consumer Continues Deleveraging).

Admitting that the foreign exchange value of the dollar has fallen substantially, Bernanke sought to dispel claims that the Fed’s ultra accommodative monetary policy, most clearly seen in both programs of quantitative easing, has caused developing economies much pain.  From the speech:

Slow growth in the United States and a persistent trade deficit are additional, more fundamental sources of recent declines in the dollar’s value; in particular, as the United States is a major oil importer, any geopolitical or other shock that increases the global price of oil will worsen our trade balance and economic outlook, which tends to depress the dollar. In this case, the direction of causality runs from commodity prices to the dollar rather than the other way around. The best way for the Federal Reserve to support the fundamental value of the dollar in the medium term is to pursue our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and we will certainly do that.

At the same time, loose monetary policy and exceptionally low interest rates aren’t responsible for currency appreciation and the risk of over-heating in developing economies.  Even though policymakers in China and Brazil, with the latter’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega leading the way, have blamed U.S. monetary policy for causing excessive capital flows to their economies, Bernanke said he’s just been trying to respect the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  “Whatever the source of the recent growth in the emerging markets, the authorities in those economies clearly have a range of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and other tools that can be used to address any overheating that may occur,” explained the Fed Chairman.

Finally, after adding that QE2 would conclude at the end of June, with accommodative monetary policy continuing until the U.S. economy stabilizes, Bernanke praised his institution’s role in stabilizing the U.S. and global financial system and averting a much deeper recession.  “The Federal Reserve’s actions in recent years have doubtless helped stabilize the financial system, ease credit and financial conditions, guard against deflation, and promote economic recovery. All of this has been accomplished, I should note, at no net cost to the federal budget or to the U.S. taxpayer,” concluded the Bernank.

Apocalyptic Bernanke: Raise The Debt Ceiling Or Else

 to an audience that included Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke called the status quo“unsustainable” while warning that failing to raise the debt ceiling could have disastrous consequences.  A few weeks from the end of QE2, Bernanke gave no hint as to the path for monetary policy after June 30.

“Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option,” warned Bernanke.  The bearded academic laid his grain of salt for the ongoing deficit debate that is currently dividing Washington.

Weighing in, he told policymakers that “the debt limit is the wrong tool” for the important job of “forc[ing] some necessary and difficult fiscal policy adjustments.”

In what appeared to be a comment directed at the Republican Party, Bernanke said “failing to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would be self-defeating if the objective is to chart a course toward a better fiscal situation for our nation.”  Referencing the Hippocratic Oath, he asked policymakers to not do harm and “avoid unnecessary actions or threats that risk shaking the confidence of investors in the ability and willingness of the U.S. government to pay its bills.” (Read Dodd-Frank Failing On Volcker Rule, Derivatives, Credit Rating Agencies).

A little more apocalyptic than usual, the Fed chairman urged both parties to leave behind their bickering and solve the problem at hand.  “Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget must occur at some point,” he said. (ReadBernanke To Rep. Paul Ryan: QE2 Created 600,000 Jobs).

Those adjustments could come from a “careful and deliberative process” or as “a rapid and much more painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis in an environment of rising interest rates, collapsing confidence and asset values, and a slowing economy.”

The choice, Bernanke, said, “is ours to make,” but the central banker also made it clear that using the debt ceiling debate as an opportunity to draw a line in the sand on issues that have been a long time coming and require a long-term solution is misguided.

Bernanke only used the word default once.  Speaking of the possibility of prioritizing Treasury payments to meet principal and interest payments on debt outstanding, the Fed Chairman said the Treasury would soon find it very hard, if not impossible, to continue paying for Social Security, Medicare, and the military.

Failing to raise the debt ceiling would effectively amount to a perfect storm, hitting the U.S. economy where it hurts, according to Bernanke.  It would “cause severe disruptions in financial markets,” harm the reserve status of the U.S. dollar (along with the “special role of Treasury securities in global markets”), lead to credit downgrades, and “create fundamental doubts about the creditworthiness of the United States.”

In other words, Bernanke told lawmakers to stop fighting and raise the budget deficit, while keeping the spending coming in the immediate term.  In order to keep the dollar’s reserve currency status and allow it to continue borrowing at rates that only the U.S. can have (given its debt level), the policy should be aimed at solving problems in the short to long-term, finding “substantial savings in the 10-year budget window.”  Bernanke, therefore, was just giving his support for those who want to raise the debt ceiling.

Bernanke Admits He’s Clueless On Economy’s Soft Patch

His second post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke touched on every topic, admitting that the recovery was weaker than expected and that beyond temporary factors like supply chain disruptions in Japan and high energy prices, he was at a loss as to what was causing the soft patch.  In a Q&A session with reporters, Bernanke said a disorderly default in Greece would have significant effects on the U.S. economy, while adding that the Fed still had several tools at its disposal to pump up the economy.

If the central bank actually does have more in its tool kit, they will be deployed in a weakening economy. Just before Bernanke spoke the Fed issued its revised forecast, dulling growth estimates for 2011 and now calling for gross domestic product to expand between 2.7% and 2.9%.

Bernanke’s statements rattled the markets, which had remained virtually flat for most of the day.  Equities sold-off as the Chairman began talking, with all three major U.S. equity indices closing at their lows for the day.  The Dow shed 80 points or 0.7% to close at 12,110 in New York, while the S&P 500 fell 8 points or 0.7% to 1,287; the Nasdaq lost 18 points or 0.7% to 2,669.

On the bond front, yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit their lows for the day just before the release of the FOMC state, only to bounce up to a few basis points from 3%, marking a sell-off as prices move opposite yields, and playing into Bill Gross‘ investment thesis. (Read PIMCO’s Bill Gross Shorts Treasuries As Experts Eye Inflation).

With markets at a crossroads, amid a cooling economic recovery and a dangerous Greek crisis threatening the euro and the global economy, reporters grilled Bernanke and asked many of the right questions.

Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery.  While theFOMC statement assigned blame outside of the U.S., pointing at Japan along with rising food and oil prices, Bernanke was put on the spot by a reporter who noted the inconsistency behind that explanation and a lowering of long term forecasts.  Bernanke took the hit, admitting only some of the factors were temporary and that he didn’t know exactly what was causing the slowdown, but that it would persist.  “Growth,” said Bernanke, “will return into 2012.” (Read No Recovery Possible While U.S. Consumer Continues Deleveraging).

“Bernanke was just summing up what has happened in the markets, what has been priced in,” explained Nick Kalivas of MF Global.  “But the Fed has taken extraordinary measures to support the economy, they have done what they can and monetary policy isn’t a solution for everything,” added Kalivas, pointing at problems with the fiscal situation and the debt ceiling debate.

While Wednesday’s remarks came as little surprise, the blunt discussion of inflation and slowing economic growth offered little inspiration to load up on risk assets like equities.

The Fed chairman was explicit about the situation in Washington, directly slapping Republicans in the face saying “I don’t think sharp immediate cuts in the deficit would bring more jobs.”  Having made clear before that Congress should raise the debt ceiling, Bernanke explained budgetary problems are very long run in nature.

Could 'Rip-Off Britain' Really Print More Money?

With Jean-Claude Trichet warning that the debt crisis lights are flashing red and Ben Bernanke telling investors the US slowdown is temporary, but could have longer lasting effects, Mervyn King at the Bank of England is discussing pumping more money into the UK economy.

Minutes from the last meeting of the BoE’s monetary policy committee showed that despite two members wanting to hike rates, others are considering another round of quantitative easing.

“For some of these members, it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialized” said the statement from the Bank of England.

The biggest concern for the UK central bank's policy committee appears to be the lack of consumer spending that has led to uncertainty over the level of spare capacity in the economy and the subsequent direction of inflationary pressures.

Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Securities believes this uncertainty leaves Mervyn King and his team in a difficult position.

“It is supposedly what the MPC wants to see as the chief element in a rebalancing of the UK economy away from domestic demand towards net exports,” said Lewis in a research note.

“If the MPC were to revert to its pre-2007 strategy of pumping up the economy whenever domestic demand falls below the trajectory that the Bank’s forecasting equations indicate as consistent with achieving the inflation target, its action would tend to frustrate the necessary rebalancing,” said Lewis.

Inflation Greater Challenge

Given the UK has historically had to fight inflation rather than worry about falling prices, Lewis questions if deflation could be a real threat.

“In Rip-off Britain, where price gouging is not unknown, central bankers have, in fact, experienced much more testing challenges in containing inflation than in heading off deflation,” he said. 

Risks to the UK come from both sides of the Atlantic. The US slowdown and Greek debt crisis have intensified since the BoE last met and this is causing concerns.

“Since the June MPC meeting, the scale of these worries has, if anything, grown with the Greek government’s next bailout tranche still balanced on a knife edge as it battles to pass austerity measures," Victoria Cadman, an analyst at Investec in a research note following the BoE minutes.

"The run of US data has, on the whole, also continued to soften throughout the month,” Cadman said.

With a number of factors clouding the UK growth picture Cadman said it will take time for the true health of the British economy to become clear.

"The likely, but as yet undefined in size, drag to second quarter growth resulting from the Royal Wedding holiday, the increase in oil prices earlier this year, and supply chain disruptions from the Japanese tsunami, complicate the committee’s assessment considerably,” she wrote.

With austerity measures weighing on sentiment for Britain’s millions of public sector workers and strikes on the way there will be little help for the UK economy from Chancellor George Osborne who consistently said there is no plan B on attempting to reduce the deficit.

Despite this uncertainty Cadman sees little chance of the quantitative easing debate at the BoE being anything more than a debate.

“Our central view however is for a return to somewhat more robust UK and US growth in the third quarter of this year. We therefore consider that while the committee may be happy to add the prospect of QE more centrally back into its policy debate, the prospect of further QE remains unlikely,” she explained.

Like Cadman, Lewis can see little reason for pumping more money into the system on monetary policy grounds but questions if the motivation for debating more QE could be the banks, not the consumers.

“They would not easily justify such action on monetary grounds. As the minutes state, nominal consumption has continued to rise at a substantial rate, albeit largely on account of inflation, despite weakness in broad money growth,” Lewis wrote.

“There are no surprises there, since only the crudest of monetarists would look for a close correlation. MPC members, though, seem to be turning their attention to problems of banks’ capital-raising, where QE is widely regarded to have been helpful in the past,” he added.

Bernanke 'Quietly Risk Negative': Dennis Gartman

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement on expectations for the US economy on Wednesday was "quietly risk negative," Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, told CNBC Thursday.

After a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed slashed its growth forecast for this year and said unemployment will still remain high.

"The most important statement that he made was that there will be at least two more FOMC meetings before a change in interest rates. That’s gloomy," Gartman said.

"He was less than optimistic, but I don’t think really pessimistic."

The Fed now predicts that the economy will grow between 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent this year, down from its April estimate of between 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent.

Bernanke said that interest rates would remain at current levels for at least two more meetings of the FOMC.

"As the Fed Chairman became more risk-averse, so did the markets," Gartman said. "If you look at the US balance sheet, it’s actually doing quite well. Corporate America is replete with cash, so if you are a value investor, you would just want to go out and buy everything."

Gartman is not optimistic about employment figures in the US.

"Businessmen and women see Obama Care and other left-wing measures, and they are absolutely unwilling to add more employees to their businesses," he said.

He added that he will keep his gold holdings for the moment, and said: "I’ve been long on gold for a long time and I’m not going to change that at this point."

The British pound is not looking great at the moment, according to Gartman. "I am short on sterling. I think the comments coming out of the MPC are to be taken seriously."

"It is the one to sell if you’re selling anything in Europe. Until the market tells me I’m wrong, I’ll continue to do the same," he added.

Minat Resiko Tinggi, Sterling Bidik 1.6000

 terus melemah terhadap greenback selama sesi Asia, terkait pernyataan BoE kemarin (22/06) yang memicu pelemahan.

Secara teknikal, “grafik 1 dan 4 jam masih menunjukkan sinyal pelemahan dan belum menunjukkan sinyal penguatan. Mata uang dapat terus melemah jika minat resiko masih mendominasi,” kata Valeria Bednarik, kepala analis FXstreet.com. GBP/USD  melemah ke area 1.6035, turun 30 poin dari harga pembukaan.

Level support di 1.6020, 1.5970 dan 1.5920. Level resistance di 1.6070, 1.6110 dan 1.6150. 

USD Kuat

Logam mulia tertekan oleh penguatan USD meski pelemahan tampaknya hanya bersifat terbatas terkait tindakan investor untuk  mencari aset yang lebih aman.

Emas diperdagangkan di range sempit di kisaran $1,546.10/ons dan $1,548.69/ons. Terakhir di $1,546.40/ons, turun $1.60 dari level penutupan sebelumnya. EUR/USD melemah sampai 1.4285 dari sebelumnya di level 1.4354. Daya tarik emas sebagai safe-haven bagaimanapun masih ada karena logam mulia merupakan alat lindung nilai yang cenderung lebih aman saat kondisi ekonomi tidak menentu.

Spot perak di $36.18/ons, turun 16 sen dari level penutupan.

Emas Dalam Sterling Raih Diatas 968 Pounds

 dalam denominasi Sterling naik ke level tingginya selama ini diatas 968 Pounds hari Kamis seiring mata uang Inggris anjlok ke rendahnya 3 minggu di Asia setelah BoE menaikkan prospek penawaran stimulus tambahan.

Hasil pertemuan BoE bulan Juni hari Rabu memberikan sinyal suku bunga yang cenderung tetap dari rekor rendahnya 0.5% tahun ini dan menandakan kemungkinan lebih besar bahwa BoE memilih adanya QE lanjutan, kontras dengan dengan Feds dari AS yang tidak memberikan sinyal dukungan moneter.

 

Harga emas dalam Sterling menyentuh rekor tingginya di 968.64 Pounds per ons.

Euro Analysis : Terlihat Melemah, Uji Support 1.4285

EURUSD terlihat mengakhiri uptrend setelah menembus trendline. Saat ini tengah menguji support

di 1.4285 namun sinyal bullish dari stochastic dan CCI membuka peluang koreksi hingga 1.4363. 

Waspadai tembusnya support di 1.4285 karena berpotensi diikuti oleh pergerakan turun menuju 1.4189.

Sterling analisa : Melemah Signifikan, Koreksi ke 1.6109

Sterling melemah signifikan terhadap USD hingga ke 1.6016. Stochastic dan CCI mengindikasikan

sinyal bulish sehingga kemungkinan akan terjadi koreksi hingga ke 1.6109. Waspadai tembusnya

support di 1.6016 karena akan berpotensi diikuti oleh pergerakan menuju 1.5958.

Pasar Eropa Berhati-Hati Jelang FOMC

Eropa tertekan dalam sesi perdagangan hari Rabu meskipun pemerintah telah berhasil mempertahankan kepercayaan perlemen Yunani. Investor nampaknya masih skeptis mengingat belum ditemukannya solusi tepat untuk masalah hutang Yunani yang masih menyisakan ancaman default. Pasar juga tengah menantikan pengumuman hasil pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve AS yang diharapkan dapat memberikan gambaran yang lebih jelas tentang laju pemulihan ekonomi serta memberikan petunjuk tentang langkah-langkah stimulus moneter.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 melemah sekitar 0,4%, sedangkan indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing harus kehilangan 0,11% dan 0,56%. Di Inggris, FTSE bergerak 0,55% lebih rendah dalam 2 jam pertama perdagangan.

Yunani maish tetap menjadi fokus meskipun voting kepercayaan kemarin berhasil dimenangkan pemerintahan George Papandreu, namun pemerintah harus segera menghadapi tantangan lain dimana mereka harus berjuang meloloskan rencana langkah-langkah penghematan baru dalam voting parlemen 28 Juni mendatang guna memastikan pencairan paket bailout tahap berikutnya dari Uni Eropa dan IMF.

Sementara Federal Reserve dijadwalkan akan merilis keputusan kebijakan moneternya hari ini, yang telah mendorong pasar Eropa untuk lebih berhati-hati.

Bernanke to Walk a Fine Line on Inflation, Growth

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to announce a major change in monetary policy at his second-ever news conference later Wednesday, but investors will hang on his every word for clues on whether the Fed will scale back its presence in financial markets, analysts said.

"I don't think there's going to be any surprise… I don't really see any major changes coming up right now, I think they're going to see how the data are evolving," former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner told CNBC.

The central bank will release quarterly economic forecasts and analysts expect them to be revised lower to reflect the recent weakness, but they said Bernanke will be quick to say he sees an acceleration in the recovery.

"I'm sure he'll predict one," John Wraith, fixed income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), told CNBC. "I'm sure he won't announce any reversal of the stimulus."

The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to take the formal decision to end the second round of quantitative easing – a program under which it pumps liquidity in markets by buying assets – at the end of June but to leave the reinvestment policy in place, according to analysts from Barclays Capital.

"This could be accomplished by changing the language in the statement from 'will purchase' to 'will complete' its purchases of $600 billion in Treasury securities and 'will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings,'" they wrote in a market note.

Some market observers said that weak jobs data could prompt the Fed to relax monetary conditions even further, but Kroszner said the central bank will need to see the employment report in July to decide whether the weakness was transitory or it indicated a downward trend.

"I think there's a belief there's an underlying strength in the economy," he said, pointing to the fact that "productivity numbers have been very good" and investment in equipment and software was "pretty good."

Yields on the 10-year US Treasury note stayed below 3 percent, in part pushed down by worries regarding the debt crisis in the euro zone, and some analysts have said this shows the Fed can brush aside fears of price rises because of its extra-loose monetary policy.

"The bond market is telling you there's no worry about inflation out there," Gary Baker, head of European equities strategy at BAML global research, told CNBC.

Inflation Target?

The Fed's statement is due at 12:30 pm New York time and Bernanke's news conference is expected to start at 2:15 pm.

"We expect the Fed to revise down its GDP projections for 2011 and likely raise the core inflation forecast, which should not come as a surprise," the analysts from Barclays Capital wrote.

"We will monitor the press conference to see if the committee's characterization of inflation risk has changed given the trend in core inflation," they added.

The consumer price index for all items excluding volatile food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008, while overall inflation was 0.2 percent month-on-month.

The statement is likely to say that headline inflation was pushed higher by a rise in commodity prices but that these have fallen back somewhat and inflation expectations remain stable, Barclays Capital analysts wrote.

"Several FOMC members have made comments in support of a formal inflation target. We expect the committee to discuss this topic in depth during its June meeting and would not be surprised to hear the chairman characterize the committee's views on the adoption of an explicit inflation target," they added.

Gold : Uji Kembali Resistance di 1,548.55, Incar 1,557.39

Emas kembali menguji resistance dikisaran 1548.55. Secara teknikal pecahnya level resistance tersebut
dapat memicu penguatan menuju area 1557.39. Namun waspadai kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic
yang saat ini berada dalam area overbought dan memungkinkan terjadinya koreksi bearish menuju area
support dikisaran 1539.71 hingga area 1529.82 jika resistance tersebut mampu bertahan.