Selasa, 05 April 2011

Aktivitas Sektor Jasa AS Berkurang

Indeks non-manufaktur AS turun ke level 57.3, lebih rendah dari prediksi 59.5 dan publikasi sebelumnya 59.7.Dollar kurangi penguatan dan Dow makin terpuruk setelah data dirilis. Ini tentunya dapat memaksa Federal Reserve untuk tetap jalankan program pembelian aset hingga bulan Juni.


Sektor jasa AS masih catatkan ekspansi walaupun pertumbuhan melambat dari bulan Februari. Sektor jasa berikan kontribusi signifikan bagi output ekonomi AS; pekerjaan 90% angkatan kerja, dengan ragam industri meliputi perawatan kesehatan, ritel, jasa keuangan, dan konstruksi. Meskipun, tingkat pengangguran AS turun ke level 8,8% di bulan Maret, namun perbaikan tidak merata di seluruh sektor. Konsumen kini hadapi tingginya harga bahan makanan dan energi.

Gold today

Emas kembali menguji area resistance dikisaran 1438.56. Pecahnya level resistance tersebut membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan ke area 1447.35. Sebaliknya jika area resistance mampu bertahan, terbuka peluang koreksi membidik area support dikisaran 1428.72 hingga 1418.89 yang juga merupakan area trendline. Hal tersebut juga diperkuat oleh kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang telah berada dalam area overbought.

PMI Jasa Kuatkan Sterling

Sterling perpanjang reli setelah data tegaskan berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi Inggris. Indeks PMI sektor jasa meningkat ke level 57.1, lebih baik dari prediksi 52.5 dan publikasi sebelumnya 52.6

Sektor jasa berikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap output ekonomi Inggris. Ini dapat menjadi indikasi Inggris tidak akan terpuruk kembali ke dalam jurang resesi setelah catatkan kontraksi pertumbuhan 0,5% di kwartal terakhir 2010. BoE pun mungkin segera naikan suku bunga demi jinakkan inflasi jika pemulihan ekonomi terjaga. Sterling kini diperdagangkan 1.6220, dekat level tinggi harian 1.6225

Portugal (Mungkin) Butuhkan Bailout

Moody's kembali pangkas peringkat kredit Portugal dari A3 menjadi BAA1 akibat kemungkinan Lisbon meminta bail-out dari Uni Eropa dalam waktu dekat. Moody’s masih berpersepsi negatif terhadap Portugal, namun kemungkinan pemangkasan lebih lanjut bergantung kepada kemampuan Lisbon amankan pendanaan jangka menengah. Euro melemah hingga sentuh $1.4169 setelah penurunan peringkat Portugal.

Pasar yakin Lisbon akan ikuti jejak Yunani dan Irlandia meminta bail-out Uni Eropa/IMF. Namun, Perdana Menteri sementara Jose Socrates telah utarakan negaranya tidak butuh bantuan Uni Eropa. Presiden Portugal telah bubarkan parlemen minggu lalu dan tetapkan 5 Juni sebagai tanggal pemilu. Meskipun Lisbon masih dapat penuhi kebutuhan pendanaan, tapi biayanya akan semakin mahal.

Sterling: Bila Ekonomi Rapuh, Bunga Takkan Naik

Perhatian investor saat ini tertuju pada fokus pasar pekan ini yaitu pertemuan Bank of England (BoE) pada hari Kamis lusa.
Namun hari ini (15.30 WIB), survei PMI untuk sektor jasa juga akan mendapatkan perhatian seiring investor terus mencari petunjuk lebih lanjut akan pemulihan ekonomi setelah GDP Inggris berkontraksi 0,5% di kuartal terakhir 2010.
 
Pihak BoE diprediksi akan mempertahankan suku bunga di level rendah 0,5%, tapi bunga pinjaman ini diperkirakan meningkat dalam beberapa bulan mendatang terkait bank sentral berusaha melawan inflasi yang kini terlampau jauh dari target.
 
Namun demikain pengetatan moneter mungkin saja ditunda jika data-data yang keluar memberikan sinyal pemulihan ekonomi yang rapuh.

Euro Today : Potensi Koreksi ke Kisaran 1.4173

EURUSD saat ini terlihat mengalami koreksi menuju area support dikisaran 1.41730. Secara teknikal kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang telah berada dalam area oversold memungkinkan terjadinya rebound menuju area 1.42675 jika support tersebut mampu bertahan. Sebaliknya jika support tersebut pecah, terbuka peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area trendline.

Sterling Today : Di 1.61283, Uji Resistance di Level Sama

Cable saat ini berada dikisaran 1.61283 dan menguji area resistance pada level yang sama. Bias saat ini masih cenderung flat. Pecahnya level resistance tersebut membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan menuju area 1.61769. Namun sebaliknya jika resistance tersebut mampu bertahan, besar kemungkinan GBPUSD akan melanjutkan pergerakan bearish menuju area 1.60983 hingga 1.60740.

Bernanke Says Fed Will Act If Inflation More Than ‘Transitory’

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a “transitory” boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if he’s proven incorrect.
“So long as inflation expectations remain stable and well anchored” and commodity-price increases slow, as he’s forecasting, then “the increase in inflation will be transitory,” Bernanke said today in response to audience questions after a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia.

“We have to monitor inflation and inflation expectations extremely closely because if my assumptions prove not to be correct, then we would certainly have to respond to that and ensure that we maintain price stability,” he said.
The dollar rose against the euro and yen after the comments, which are similar to both Bernanke’s congressional testimony and the statement from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last month. He told lawmakers March 1 that Fed officials “continue to monitor these developments closely and are prepared to respond as necessary,” while the FOMC said on March 15 that it “will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.”

The dollar rose to 84.28 yen at 9:17 a.m. in Tokyo from 84.06 on April 4 after earlier touching 84.49. Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to $1.4211 from $1.4221 after reaching as high as $1.4193.
The Commerce Department reported last week that the Fed’s preferred price gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.9 percent in February from a year earlier. Including all items, prices rose 1.6 percent.

The FOMC, led by Bernanke, said after its last meeting on March 15 that the economy is on a “firmer footing” and affirmed plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bernanke hasn’t said what he favors as the next move for monetary policy after that.

The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate close to zero since December 2008 and last month reiterated it would remain there for an “extended period.”

Qaddafi Diplomacy Rebuffed as Europeans Back Rebel Demands

Muammar Qaddafi’s diplomatic outreach failed to entice European leaders, as Italy rejected a reported cease-fire proposal and recognized the rebels’ interim council as the nation’s only legitimate government.

In Libya, rebels pushed back regime loyalists to gain control of most of the oil port at Brega, according to al- Jazeera television. U.S. and NATO warplanes continued to destroy regime targets, such as military vehicles near Brega hit by a U.S. A-10 Thunderbolt II ground-attack jet, according to a statement from the Pentagon.

The Libyan government is calling for an “international dialogue” to resolve the conflict, and offering elections and political reforms, spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said at a Tripoli press conference broadcast on Sky News. The possible solutions would not include Qaddafi stepping down now, he said. His future must be decided by the Libyan people since he has “symbolic significance” for the nation, Ibrahim said.


Opposition leaders and Western government have stated that Qaddafi must go, and have demanded the Qaddafi regime honor the UN Security Council’s demand for a cease-fire that allows humanitarian aid into embattled cities.

‘Keep the Pressure Up’

“At some stage, there will have to be a genuine cease- fire, then the political process can start,” said U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, who visited U.K. Typhoon pilots flying Libya missions from the Gioia del Colle air base in southern Italy. “Until then, we’ve got to keep the pressure up.”

Oil fluctuated near the highest level in 30 months in New York. Crude for May delivery rose 53 cents to settle at $108.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement level since Sept. 22, 2008. Prices are up 28 percent from a year ago.


Libyan rebels plan to export crude oil for the first time from a port near Tobruk in eastern Libya. The tanker Equator, able to load 1 million barrels of oil, is due today at the Marsa al Hariga terminal, according to AISLive Ltd. ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The rebels’ national council said April 1 that it had reached a deal to have Qatar help market Libyan oil, with proceeds going for food, fuel, medicine and other uses.

No ‘Game-Changer’

“That’s certainly news that should calm oil markets a bit,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst with Raiffeisen Bank AG in Vienna. “However, the supply volumes won’t be a game- changer.”

Elsewhere in the region, Yemeni police clashed with anti- government protesters in the southwestern city of Taiz, leaving at least 15 demonstrators dead and hundreds injured, Sadek al- Shujaa, chief of a local clinic, said in a telephone interview. The U.S. wants President Ali Abdullah Saleh to end the “appalling violence” and to reach a deal “as soon as possible” with the opposition, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in Washington. Yemen’s opposition coalition called for international intervention to stop the bloodshed.
Separately, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on Saudi Arabia to pull its security forces out of Bahrain, according to the Associated Press. Syria may announce a new government by April 9 to replace the one that resigned last week in the aftermath of protests, Al Watan newspaper said today, without saying where it obtained the information.

Greece, Turkey
 
Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini yesterday dismissed a reported cease-fire proposal by the Libyan leader, who sent an envoy to Greece and Turkey for talks. Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas said Qaddafi appeared to want a political solution.
“These proposals are not credible,” Frattini said at a news conference in Rome with Ali al-Isawi, foreign affairs coordinator of the rebels’ governing group, the Interim Transitional National Council. Frattini said past truces declared by the regime were “systematically violated.”

Italy’s formal recognition of the rebels yesterday -- along with a similar decision by Kuwait -- follows that of France and Qatar. The U.S. and the U.K. have yet to establish diplomatic ties.


Italy, Libya’s former colonial ruler, has been the largest buyer of oil and natural gas from the North African nation, according to the International Energy Agency. Libya provided 22 percent of Italy’s crude oil imports before the conflict this year and the Greenstream underwater gas pipeline provided 13 percent of Italian gas imports, the IEA said.

Sons’ Plans

The Greek government said that a visit by Qaddafi’s acting foreign minister, Abdul Ati al-Obeidi, with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was the latest attempt by the Libyan leader to resolve the crisis through a settlement. Late yesterday, Al- Obeidi met with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who made no comments afterwards.

At least two sons of Qaddafi are proposing a plan to move the Libyan leader out of power and oversee a democratic transition under his son, Saif al-Islam, the New York Times reported, citing an unidentified diplomat and Libyan official. It wasn’t clear whether the elder Qaddafi would support such a plan.
Replacing Qaddafi with one of his sons “is not acceptable,” the opposition’s al-Isawi said at the news briefing with Frattini.

Civilians at Risk

The UN Special Envoy for Libya, Abdel Ilah al-Khatib, told the Security Council that the rebels’ cease-fire terms include an end to the regime sieges of rebel-held cities and pulling back all forces, freedom for Libyans to express their political views, and an agreement to have Qaddafi give up power.
“The purpose of the uprising was to see Qaddafi leave,” Khatib said he was told by opposition leaders in Benghazi.
The fighting is putting civilians in growing danger, said al-Khatib, a former Jordanian foreign minister.
Intensive fighting continued in the rebel-held western city of Misrata, with water and power cut off and food in short supply. Regime tanks began shelling an area of the city’s port about 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the city center at about 9 a.m. local time, said a Misrata resident, who identified himself as Touka, by telephone.
“There is shelling and use of rocket-propelled grenade launchers and fighting taking place in the eastern part,” Reda Almountasser, another Misrata resident, said in a phone interview from the city.

Misrata Misery

The aid group Doctors Without Borders said it evacuated 71 people injured in the fighting from Misrata by boat April 3.
“The hospital in Misrata reportedly came under bombardment early Sunday,” the humanitarian aid group said yesterday in a statement. “Remaining functional health clinics in the city are overflowing with severely injured patients and are running desperately short of medical supplies.”

Soldiers who have defected from Qaddafi units and better- organized rebel units were being deployed in battle near Brega, the BBC said. Rebels arrived in pickup trucks equipped with multiple-rocket launchers, according video shown by al-Jazeera.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization continued its air campaign. The alliance’s jets flew 154 missions over the country April 3, including 58 “strike sorties,” it said yesterday in a statement.
The U.K. is deploying four additional Panavia Tornado GR4 ground-attack aircraft, bringing its total to 12 in the NATO operation, Cameron said yesterday. In addition, the U.K. is providing “non-lethal” military equipment to the rebels, Hague told Parliament.

U.S. Flights Reduced

The U.S. began to carry out a pledge by President Barack Obama to hand over most military missions to NATO and its allies, such as Qatar. The U.S. will keep its attack aircraft on standby, to resume flights if necessary, while U.S. command and control aircraft and navy ships remain in action.
The Obama administration announced it is lifting financial and travel sanctions imposed on Libya’s former foreign minister, Moussa Koussa, who defected to Britain. There are 13 senior Libyan government officials on the U.S. sanctions list, and the lifting of sanctions on Koussa is intended to “encourage others” to abandon the regime, the U.S. Treasury said its announcement.

The U.K. sent a second team of diplomats to the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, in eastern Libya, to meet with opposition leaders, according to an e-mailed statement from the British Foreign Office.
African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping will meet with European and NATO officials in London and Brussels through April 5 “to further explore ways and means of resolving the crisis in Libya,” the AU said in a statement.

Euro Sideways Nantikan Keputusan ECB

Euro bergerak sideways di kisaran tinggi dalam 5 bulan terhadap dollar seiring pasar saat ini menantikan keputusan suku bunga dari ECB.
Bank sentral Eropa (ECB) diprediksi akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin dari rekor rendah 1% pada pertemuan hari Kamis lusa yang bertujuan untuk meredam tekanan inflasi di zona euro.
 
Pasar saat ini pun masih berharap adanya kenaikan 25 basis poin sebanyak 2 x lagi hingga akhir tahun 2011. Sementara aksi beli bank sentral di Asia juga berhasil meredam koreksi di bawah level support $1.4190, dengan stop-loss $1.4150.

Nikkei 225 Today : Bearish , Anjloknya Saham TEPCO

Indeks Nikkei dibuka langsung merosot terutama terkait anjloknya saham TEPCO (operator reaktor nuklir) terkait kekhawatiran krisis kerusakan nuklir yang berkepanjangan.
 
Setelah merosot tajam koreksi naik akan sulit bagi Nikkei, namun setidaknya tembus di atas area 9660 dapat memicu momentum bullish lanjutan menuju area 9700. Sementara pergerakan konstan di bawah 9600 akan memuluskan laju gerak menuju 9550 sebagai support selanjutnya sebelum menguji area 9500.
 
 
 
Resistance Level :  9660, 9700, 9750
Support Level      :  9600, 9550, 9500
Trading Range     :  9500 – 9700
 

Gold today

Emas masih bergerak flat menguji area resistance dikisaran 1431.68. Pecahnya level resistance tersebut membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan menuju area resistance selanjutnya dikisaran 1447.35. Namun sementara itu, waspadai terjadinya koreksi menuju area trendline jika emas gagal menembus area resistance. Hal tersebut juga dimungkinkan oleh kondisi CCI dan juga stochastic yang telah berada dalam area overbought.

Nikkei 225 Today

Indeks Nikkei dibuka langsung merosot hingga 1 persen terutama terkait anjloknya saham TEPCO (operator reaktor nuklir) terkait kekhawatiran krisis kerusakan nuklir yang berkepanjangan.
Saham Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) saat turun 11.5% dan sempat anjlok hingga 15% ke rekor terendah di harga 376 yen.
 
Setelah merosot tajam koreksi naik akan sulit bagi Nikkei, namun setidaknya tembus di atas area 9660 dapat memicu momentum bullish lanjutan menuju area 9700. Sementara pergerakan konstan di bawah 9600 akan memuluskan laju gerak menuju 9550 sebagai support selanjutnya sebelum menguji area 9500.

Bursa Saham Jepang down trend

Bursa saham Jepang bergerak melemah diawal perdagangan hari Selasa, dengan saham-saham kendaraan yang melemah terkait kekhawatiran persediaan setelah Toyota Motor Corp yang melaporkan bahwa akan menghentikan sementara seluruh produksi di pabrik-pabrik Amerika Utara karena kekurangan suku cadang. Indeks harga saham rata-rata turun 0.5% ke level 9,669.82, sementara indeks Topix turun 0.6% di level 854.27. Saham Toyota Motor Corp turun 1.4%, sementara Honda Motor Co turun 1.5% dan Nissan Motor Co merosot 1.1%. Beberapa saham bluechip juga turun, dengan saham Panasonic yang turun 1.6% dan Elpida Memory Inc turun 1.8%.

Perak : Termahal Sepanjang Masa

Harga perak melonjak ke level tertingginya sejak 1980 terkait kekhawatiran inflasi hari ini (05/04). Kenaikan kepemilikan di ETF juga terpantau pada rekor baru, begitu pula dengan permintaan sektor industri. Di saat bersamaan, emas nyaris tidak bergerak bersama dengan euro yang tertahan dibawah level tertinggi 5-bulan terhadap dollar AS.
 
Perak kini dipandang sebagai aset alternatif bagi investasi yang lebih murah diandingkan emas. Ekspektasi ihwal kenaikan volume permintaan dari China sangat menopang harga logam putih ini. Sepanjang kuaral I 2011, perak sudah melonjak sebanyak 22%, menandai kenaikan selama 9 kuartal beruntun. 
 
Perak naik ke level tertinggi $38.73 per ons dan tenang di level $38.64 per ons (naik 22 sen). iShares Silver Trust mengatakan kepemilikan perak naik ke rekor baru, 11.162,45 ton pada 4 April. Pada 24 Maret lalu, volume kepemilikan perak sebesar 11.139,52 ton .

Inflasi tinggi

Emas ditutup dekat level $1,432 hari Senin, seiring investor cemasan mengenai inflasi dan pelemahan dollar terhadap euro setelah pasar mengantisipasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh ECB.
"Emas terangkat oleh naiknya ekspektasi inflasi ditengah kuatnya perekonomian dan tingginya harga minyak. Di lain pihak, kenaikan suku bunga ECB membantu menekan dollar," ucap Bart Melek, kepala strategis komoditas pada TD Bank Financial Group. Emas juga mendapat dorongan naik dari kecemasan beberapa negara di zona Eropa seperti Portugal dan Irlandia yang terbelit masalah hutang pemerintah, dan juga keresahan di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Kenaikan harga minyak dan bahan pangan juga membantu menambah daya tarik emas sebagai alat lindung inflasi.

Emas & Perak Naik Ditengah Kekhawatiran Inflasi

Kekhawatiran atas inflasi global terpicu oleh harga minyak mentah dunia yang menyentuh titik tertinggi 2,5 tahun telah mendongkrak permintaan terhadap emas dan terutama perak yang berhasil menyentuh level puncak 31 tahun.
 
Terpantau harga emas diperdagangkan pada level 1,434.50 atau naik 0.41%, sementara Perak di level 38.42 atau menguat 1.67%.
 
Emas dan Perak memang biasanya selalu menjadi alat hedging inflasi, maka para investor yang cemas terhadap potensi inflasi yang meroket akan melakukan pembelian komoditi emas, sementara Perak hari ini menguat cukup banyak akibat persentase kenaikan perak cukup tertinggal dibanding emas.
 
Kecemasan atas inflasi dipicu oleh meroketnya harga minyak hingga ke area $108.78 per barrel hari ini. Meski terakhir diperdagangkan sedikit melemah ke area $108.06 per barrel namun level tersebut masih cukup tinggi sehingga berpotensi menaikkan tingkat harga konsumen dan produsen yang menjadi indikator inflasi.
 
Level harga pangan dan energi di AS sendiri telah mengalami kenaikan, meskipun laju core inflation masih cukup moderat.
 
Di negara lain, juga serupa dimana terindikasi kenaikan harga konsumen sejalan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup pesat. China salah satunya telah melakukan pengetatan moneter sejalan dengan ancaman inflasi yang semakin tinggi di negara tersebut. Pada hari Senin ini, bank sentral Chili turut menaikkan outlook inflasi nya pada tahun ini sebagai imbas dari kenaikan harga minyak.
 
Perak selain dijadikan alat lindung nilai inflasi juga sering digunakan sebagai bahan material elekronik, maka kenaikan perak juga menjadi indikasi semakin tingginya permintaan terhadap investasi dan industri secara bersamaan.
 
Berdasarkan studi teknikal, Emas masih mendapatkan tahanan kuat di level 1,444, bersamaan dengan perpotongan slow stochastic di level overbought, seharusnya level tersebut dapat mencegah penguatan lebih lanjut dan melanjutkan pola konsolidasi yang telah berlangsung sejak triwulan terakhir 2010. Level supportterlteak di area 1410.10, jika anjlok dibawah area tersebut dapat memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut mengincar area support kunci di 1380.70.
 
Sementara perak setelah meroket ke area 38.45 hari ini, mengindikasikan penembusan konsisten diatas resisten 38.1. Fakta ini sekaligus mencerminkan uptrend untuk mengincar Fibonacci projection 100% pada area 40.00. Di sisi bawahnya, level support terletak di area 36.43 – 35.00 – 33.56.

Senin, 04 April 2011

Gold trend up

Harga emas naik seiring menguatnya euro dan tingginya harga minyak akibat krisis Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Meskipun bagusnya data tenaga kerja AS sempat grogoti performa emas, namun krisis berlanjutnya kerusuhan di Timur Tengah kembali bangkitkan permintaan terhadap aset safe-haven. "Ada risiko geopolitik di tengah gejolak Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah yang turut pacu reli minyak. Emas terlihat ikuti jejak kenaikan harga minyak dan euro dalam beberapa hari terakhir," kata Darren Heathcote, manajer Investec Australia.

Emas masih berupaya raih rekor $1447 bahkan setelah terkoreksi tajam hingga sentuh $1412 pada hari Jumat lalu, ungkap analis teknikal Reuters Wang Tao. "Reli emas masih bertahan, namun akan diperdagangkan sideways sembari menanti katalis lebih lanjut," papar dealer Singapura yang diwawancarai Reuters seraya katakan emas akan bergerak ranging di kisaran $1410 hingga $1445. Data CFTC juga tunjukkan meningkatnya posisi long emas seiring logam mulia dekati rekor tertingginya.

Gold today

Emas masih bergerak flat menguji area resistance dikisaran 1431.68. Pecahnya level resistance tersebut membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan menuju area resistance selanjutnya dikisaran 1447.35. Namun sementara itu, waspadai terjadinya koreksi menuju area trendline jika emas gagal menembus area resistance. Hal tersebut juga dimungkinkan oleh kondisi CCI dan juga stochastic yang telah berada dalam area overbought.

Euro Today : Uji 1.4247

EURUSD saat ini berada dikisaran 1.42230 dan cenderung menguji area resistance dikisaran 1.42473. Pecahnya level resistance tersebut, besar kemungkinan harga akan melanjutkan penguatan ke area 1.43400. Sementara itu, waspadai tejadinya koreksi menuju area support dikisaran 1.41546 hingga 1.40509 jika area resistance mampu bertahan. Hal tersebut juga dimungkinkan oleh kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang sudah berada dalam area overbought.