Technical Analysis, August 6th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2280-1.2460	Up	1.2460	1.2280	1.2340		1.2460	1.2280
			1.2400	1.2220
USD/JPY	77.70-79.20	Down	79.70	78.20		78.70	77.70	79.20
			79.20	77.70
GBP/USD	1.5550-1.5730	Up	1.5730	1.5550	1.5610		1.5730	1.5550
			1.5670	1.5490
USD/CHF	0.9610-0.9790	Down	0.9850	0.9670		0.9730	0.9610	0.9790
			0.9790	0.9610
AUD/USD	1.0470-1.0650	Up	1.0650	1.0470	1.0530		1.0650	1.0470
			1.0590	1.0410
NIKKEI	8610-8790	Up	8790	8610	8670		8790	8610
			8730	8550
HANGSENG	19330-19510	Up	19510	19330	19390		19510	19330
			19450	19270
KOSPI	243.80-245.60	Up	245.60	243.80	244.40		245.60	243.80
			245.00	243.20
GOLD	1592.10-1616.10	Up	1616.10	1592.10	1600.10		1616.10	1592.10
			1608.10	15841.10

Fundamental Analysis, August 3rd, 2012

Euro tumbles as ECB comes up short; U.S. jobs eyed

The euro slid for a second straight day against the dollar in volatile trade on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi quashed expectations of immediate action to remedy the region's debt crisis. Investors had high hopes headed into the ECB meeting after Draghi last week fueled speculation of further bank purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds when he said he would do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro."
But Draghi sent no signal of near-term action. Instead, he said the ECB will draw up plans in the coming weeks to make outright purchases to stabilize euro zone borrowing costs. Investors will now focus on Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could create another day of volatile trading.  At a press conference after the ECB's decision to keep interest rates at 0.75 percent, Draghi said the ECB would only act after euro zone governments have activated bailout funds to do the same and any intervention would depend on troubled countries making a request and accepting strict conditions and supervision.

The euro <EUR=> last traded at $1.2154, down 0.6 percent. Against the yen, the euro slid as low as 94.90 and last traded down 0.8 percent at 95.12 yen <EURJPY=>. It also hit a record low against the Australian dollar around A$1.1600.

Wall St takes a hit from ECB disappointment

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth day on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi disappointed investors hoping for immediate action to contain the euro zone debt crisis. One of Wall Street's top market makers, Knight Capital Group <KCG.N>, was fighting for its survival after a trading glitch that roiled markets on Wednesday wiped out $440 million of the firm's capital.  However, the market focused mostly on the ECB, though  traders were also looking ahead to Friday's closely watched U.S. jobs report which could bring a volatile end to an eventful week.

Draghi said the ECB would gear up to buy Italian and Spanish bonds on the open market but would only act after euro zone governments have activated bailout funds to do the same, disappointing traders after his pledge last week to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro left many thinking action was imminent.

Markets rallied late last week in part on hopes for stimulus from the Federal Reserve but mostly as expectations grew the ECB would take action to protect the euro. Friday's jobs report could give a stronger indication whether the Fed, which has a freer hand than the ECB, will act shortly. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week and manufacturers suffered an unexpected drop in orders in June, suggesting the economy is struggling to break out of a soft patch.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 92.18 points, or 0.71 percent, to 12,878.88. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 10.14 points, or 0.74 percent, to 1,365.00. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> lost 10.44 points, or 0.36 percent, to 2,909.77.  Major indexes fell for a fourth day running, totaling weekly losses so far of more than 1.5 percent.

Oil Drops as Draghi Stops Short of Detailing Bond Plan

Crude fell in New York after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to give details of a plan designed to shore up the euro by curbing rising government borrowing costs in the region. Futures tumbled 2 percent after Draghi signaled that the ECB will join forces with governments to buy sovereign bonds in sufficient quantities to remove all doubts about the future of the euro. Draghi said last week he would do whatever it takes to protect the currency, stoking speculation he would outline plans following a central bank meeting today.

Oil for September delivery fell $1.78 to settle at $87.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have declined 12 percent this year. Brent crude for September settlement slipped 13 cents to $105.83 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract traded at a premium of $18.70 to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the steepest since May.

ECB bond purchases would probably focus on shorter-term maturities, would be conducted in a way to soothe investors’ concerns about seniority, and wouldn’t breach European Union rules prohibiting the financing of government deficits, Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt. ECB officials are working on the plan and details will be fleshed out in coming weeks, he said. The central bank earlier kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.75 percent.

Gold down, hopes for imminent cenbank actions fade

Gold prices fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday as bullion investors continued to unwind bullish bets due to a lack of more aggressive actions by the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve to boost growth.

ECB President Mario Draghi said any government bond buying would not come before September - and only if governments activated the euro zone's bailout funds to join the ECB in buying bonds.  Gold fell in tandem with losses on Wall Street and U.S. crude futures, as markets across the board looking for monetary stimulus were less than impressed. Just last week, Draghi said the ECB would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

The bullion market was already under pressure a day after the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement that dashed investor hopes for new monetary stimulus, even though it acknowledged that the U.S. economy has lost momentum.

Spot gold <XAU=> fell 0.8 percent to $1,585.75 an ounce by 2:29 p.m. EDT (1829 GMT), having earlier hit a one-week low of $1,587.80. U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> for December delivery settled down $16.60 an ounce at $1,590.70, with trading volume around 10 percent below 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Nikkei set to fall on ECB disappointment

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to open lower on Friday as investors were disappointed that European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi did not match his last week's pledge to do whatever it takes to defend the euro with immediate action. Draghi indicated after the ECB policy meeting that any intervention would not come before September - and only if governments activated the euro zone's bail-out funds to join the ECB in buying bonds.

The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,500 and 8,600, strategists said. The benchmark inched up 0.1 percent on Thursday to 8,653.18, meeting resistance at 8,687.93, the 50 percent retracement of its rally from June 4 to July 4. Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,565 on Thursday, down 0.8 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,630.

On Thursday, the broader Topix <.TOPX> index added 0.4 percent to 732.98. The index has fallen 6.3 percent since hitting a two-month high on July 4 due to concerns over a deepening euro zone debt crisis, spluttering growth in the United States and China, and weaker company earnings. Fifty-five percent of the 111 Nikkei companies that have so far reported quarterly earnings missed market expectations, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine. That compared with 40 percent in the previous quarterly earnings season.

Seoul shares seen posting steep decline as ECB disappoints

Seoul shares may fall sharply when the market opens on Friday after the European Central Bank disappointed investors who were hoping for immediate measures to fight the euro zone debt crisis. ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank was drawing up plans to ease surging borrowing costs in Spain and other indebted countries through direct bond purchases but the move, likely a few weeks away, underwhelmed market participants who were hoping for more immediate action. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.6 percent to close at 1,869.40 points.

Hong Kong shares set for second straight loss, 200-day MA in focus

Hong Kong shares are set for a second straight loss on Friday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi failed to match his pledge last week to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro with any immediate action.

Draghi indicated after the ECB policy meeting that any intervention would not come before September - and only if governments activated the euro zone's bail-out funds to join the ECB in buying bonds. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> is likely to dip back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at about 19,677.2, a technical level it has struggled to stay above since mid-May.

The benchmark index closed down 0.7 percent on Thursday, but is still up 2.1 percent for the week.Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 1.3 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was down 0.9 percent at 0055 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, August 3th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2090-1.2270	Up	1.2270	1.2090	1.2150		1.2270	1.2090
			1.2210	1.2030
USD/JPY	77.30-78.80	Down	79.30	77.80		78.30	77.30	78.80
			78.80	77.30
GBP/USD	1.5420-1.5600	Up	1.5600	1.5420	1.5480		1.5600	1.5420
			1.5540	1.5360
USD/CHF	0.9770-0.9950	Down	1.0010	0.9830		0.9890	0.9770	0.9950
			0.9950	0.9770
AUD/USD	1.0370-1.0550	Up	1.0550	1.0370	1.0430		1.0550	1.0370
			1.0490	1.0310
NIKKEI	8420-8600	Down	8660	8480		8540	8420	8600
			8600	8420
HANGSENG	19580-19760	Down	19820	19640		19700	19580	19760
			19760	19580
KOSPI	248.55-250.35	Down	250.95	249.15		249.75	248.55	250.35
			250.35	248.55
GOLD	1575.50-1599.50	Up	1599.50	1575.50		1583.50	1599.50	1575.50
			1591.50	1567.50

Tanpa Solusi, ECB Kecewakan Euro

Euro anjlok terhadap Dollar AS di tengah perdagangan volatile hari Kamis setelah Presiden ECB Mario Draghi mengecewakan para investor yang telah berharap akan adanya langkah konkrit untuk membendung krisis hutang zona Euro.

Dalam konferensi pers yang digelar setelah European Central Bank mengumumkan keputusan mempertahankan suku bunga 0,75%, Draghi mengutarakan bahwa ECB hanya akan bertindak setelah pemerintah zona Euro mengaktifkan fasilitas dana talangan untuk melakukan hal yang sama. Ia juga menambahkan bahwa segala bentuk intervensi akan tergantung pada permintaan negara-negara bermasalah. Pengumuman ECB tersebut keluar sehari setelah Federal Reerve AS menahan diri untuk mensinyalkan putaran baru stimulus moneter, meskipun mereka melihat ekonomi AS mulai kehilangan momentum.

"Draghi coba memberikan persyaratan kepada dewan ECB, yang tampaknya telah menjanjikan tindakan di luar kewenangannya. Draghi sendiri terlihat sama sekali belum memiliki strategi selanjutnya," kata Marc Chandler, kepala strategi mata uang Brown Brothers Harriman.

Fokus investor selanjutnya akan beralih ke laporan Non Farm Payrolls AS bulan Juli, untuk coba menilai kemungkinan dan waktu stimulus lebih lanjut dari bank sentral AS. Para pembuat kebijakan Fed pada hari Rabu telah menegaskan kekecewaan mereka terhadap tingginya tingkat pengangguran dan akan memantau perkembangan data ketenagakerjaan berikutnya.

Keputusan BoE Gagal Redam Kejatuhan Sterling

Poundterling diperdagangkan melemah terhadap Greenback pada hari Rabu seiring terpukulnya sentimen resiko oleh komentar Presiden ECB Mario Draghi, yang meredam optimisme akan adanya langkah-langkah baru yang lebih agresif untuk menekan biaya pinjaman Italia dan Spanyol. Sebelumnya, Sterling sempat menuai permintaan setelah Bank Of England mempertahankan suku bunga dan target QE tidak berubah.

"Potensi pelonggaran lebih lanjut dari BoE, keprihatinan atas ekonomi Inggris dan outlook rating jangka panjang masih akan menjadi faktor krusial bagi Sterling," kata Valentin Marinov, pakar mata uang Citi. Kuatnya hubungan perdagangan antara Inggris dan zona Euro terus membuat investor berhati-hati terhadap Sterling. Kejatuhan ekonomi di kawasan Euro telah menyeret Inggris ke dalam jurang Resesi, dengan beberapa data ekonomi terakhir yang hanya menawarkan sedikit pelipur lara.

Sebuah survey PMI pada hari Rabu menunjukkan sektor manufaktur Inggris menyusut pada laju tercepat dalam lebih dari 3 tahun pada bulan Juli. Sementara kejutan positif yang coba ditampilkan data PMI konstruksi juga belum cukup untuk merubah ekspektasi bahwa BoE masih mungkin untuk memperlonggar kebijakan lebih lanjut dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

Monti Dan Rajoy Tidak Jawab Tentang Masalah Bailout

Dalam siaran pers bersama, presiden Spanyol Mariano Rajoy dan Perdana Menteri Italia Mario Monti telah berkomentar bahwa mereka menginginkan adanya serikat perbankan dan fiskal dan mereka berkomitmen untuk mencapai target anggaran yang ideal tetapi mereka tidak menjawab jika mereka ingin meminta bailout.

Rajoy menolak untuk mengatakan apakah Spanyol akan meminta dukungan Mario Monti untuk EFSF  setelah Monti menegaskan bahwa Italia tidak perlu bailout, "kita memiliki struktur keuangan publik yang solid " dan "kita perlu mempelajari bagaimana kemungkinannya" kata PM Italia.

Monty dan Rajoy komentar tentang kepuasan mereka terhadap pidato Presiden ECB Mario Draghi yang  mengumumkan tidak adanya langkah-langkah baru meskipun baru minggu lalu  dia berkomentar "apa pun akan dilakukan".

Korsel Borong 16 Metric Ton Emas

Selama bulan Juli kemarin ternyata Bank Sentral Korea menambah cadangan devisa emas nya menjadi 70.4 ton diestimasikan mencapai nilai $2.98 milyar, atau setara dengan 0.9% total cadangan devisa secara keseluruhan.

Pemegang cadangan devisa valas terbesar ketujuh dunia ini dilaporkan menambah pembelian sekitar 16 metric ton selam bulan Juli sebagai upaya untuk mendiversifikasikan kepemilikan cadangan devisa valas. Namun bank sentral menolak untuk menyediakan harga pembelian total tersebut, namun bank sentral mengatakan bahwa harga tidak menjadi masalah dalam penentuan keputusan untuk beli.

Bank sentral Korea secara otomatis telah menjadi net buyers Emas di 2012 untuk kali pertama dalam dua dekade terakhir dan semenjak itu masih menjadi buyers, apalagi dengan adanya penurunan harga Emas di tahun ini menambahkan alasan untuk akumulasi aset cadangan devisa berupa Emasnya.