Fundamental Analysis, November 21st 2011

Euro up but ECB uncertainty, US deficit debate weigh
Investors will remain wary of placing bets in favor of the euro, with issues on both sides of the Atlantic likely to contain risk appetite.
While the euro rose against the dollar on Friday on the possibility the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will bail out bigger euro zone economies and borrowing costs for Italy and Spain eased, sentiment remained bearish.
The common currency fell for three straight weeks as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the 17-nation bloc.
"While we had some consolidation today, the overall dynamics for the euro remain weak and we expect it to end the year at around $1.29," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
"There is not much clarity on what is needed to support the euro zone as a whole," he said. "The ECB remains reluctant to increase purchases of periphery bonds and the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) has not yet been fully implemented."
Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds eased after the ECB stepped in to stabilize the market, but fears remain that both countries' borrowing costs are at unsustainable levels.
Euro zone officials said there have been discussions that the ECB could lend to the IMF to provide the fund with enough money to bail out even the biggest euro zone countries.

Market eyes Europe, DC after worst week in 8
The worst week for U.S. stocks in two months ended with traders mostly sitting it out on Friday as they waited for politicians in Europe and the United States to tackle festering debt problems.
The Dow and S&P 500 were little changed and the Nasdaq composite index fell.
Friday's directionless market showed more exhaustion than relief as Europe remained investors' primary worry. Stocks found support after Italian and Spanish bond yields fell thanks to buying by the European Central Bank.
In the United States, doubts grew whether a bipartisan committee could come up with budget cuts and tax increases that Congress can agree on next week.
A major question has been whether the European Central Bank will find a way to act as a lender of last resort in the manner of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Speculation has grown the ECB could lend money to the International Monetary Fund to bail out some euro zone members.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 25.43 points, or 0.22 percent, to 11,796.16. The S&P 500 <.SPX> dipped 0.48 point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,215.65. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> lost 15.49 points, or 0.60 percent, to 2,572.50.

Gold posts biggest weekly loss since Sept
Gold tracked equity markets to end slightly higher on Friday, even though persistent euro zone debt worries and margin liquidation from other markets sent bullion to its largest weekly loss since September.
Bullion regained its footing after Thursday's sell-off, climbing above key chart support at its 50-day moving average, a level it breached during the previous session. Gold lost 3.5 percent this week, its worst performance in nearly two months.
This trend was reinforced this week as the rift between Germany and other major European powers widened over whether the European Central Bank should start printing money to deal with the region's two-year-old debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel resisted calls for the ECB to backstop other governments.
U.S. December gold futures <GCZ1> settled up $4.90 at $1,725.10 an ounce.

Crude ends down on profit-taking as Dec exits
U.S. crude futures fell for a second straight day on Friday as an early rally due to a weaker dollar faded, giving way to profit-taking as traders liquidated December positions before the contract expired at the close.
For the week, U.S. crude futures finished with their first weekly loss in seven as the market tested key technical trendlines following six weeks of gains.
In early trading, prices rose back to above $100 as the euro gained on talk that the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund would bail out bigger European economies. [USD/]
But skepticism on how that might work soon set in and  liquidations in the December crude contract accelerated, shifting the market's direction lower.
December crude posted the week's high of $103.37 on Thursday, highest intraday since May 31, and dropped to the week's low at $96.70 on Friday.
Continuing worries about how the euro zone might resolve its debt crisis remain a deterrent to any swift advance back to $100 and beyond for U.S. crude, analysts said.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude <CLZ1> expired and settled at $97.41 a barrel, falling $1.41, or 1.43 percent.

Nikkei set to edge lower amid Europe, US worries
The Nikkei average is likely to edge down on Monday, as newly installed European leaders grapple with parlous finances and a U.S. bipartisan committee inches closer to a deficit reduction deadline.
Nishi said the yen's strength against the euro and the dollar was also pressuring the market.
The benchmark Nikkei <.N225> is expected to trade in a range of 8,350 to 8,450 on Monday, strategists said.
New leaders in Greece, Italy, and now Spain are rushing to enact austerity measures amid bond yields close or at 7 percent ahead of a meeting with euro zone leaders later this month to finalise the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). 
In the U.S., the bipartisan deficit-reduction committee could come up empty handed at midnight on Wednesday, congressional aides said, and fail to meet their deadline to find $1.2 trillion in budget cuts over the next decade.
Nikkei futures in Chicago ended at 8,390, down 20 points from their Osaka close of 8,410. <JNIc1>.
On Friday, the benchmark Nikkei fell 1.2 percent to 8,374.91, its lowest level in more than a month. The broader Topix index <.TOPX> shed 1.1 percent to 719.98.
The Dow fell 2.9 percent, the S&P dropped 3.8 percent and the Nasdaq lost 4 percent last week.

Seoul shares seen recovering, eyes on ECB
Seoul shares are likely to open slightly higher on Monday as better-than-expected U.S. economic data and easing funding pressure on Italy and Spain from ECB bond purchases bring a measure of calm.
Italian and Spanish bond yields fell on Friday as the European Central Bank led purchases in the secondary market to halt spiraling debt costs, helping Italian 10-year government bond yields <IT10YT=TWEB> fall 9-basis points to 6.825 percent.
A yield of 7 percent is the threshold that most investors consider to be unsustainable and the level that required bailouts by countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ended down 2 percent at 1,839.17 points on Friday.

HK stocks could open lower, losses seen capped on charts
Hong Kong shares could open lower on Monday, with turnover likely crimped and top beta names remaining in focus, starting a week of trading likely to be choppy and driven by headlines out of Europe and the United States.
Benchmark indices are poised to be supported by chart technicals with fears lingering over the debt crisis in Europe. Any likely failure of the U.S. congressional deficit-reduction committee to bridge differences over taxes and spending would further weigh on sentiment.
The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed down 1.7 percent on Friday to 18,491.2 points, after testing the 18,435 level, its low on Oct. 24, earlier that day. The index closed 3.4 percent lower on the week, its third-straight weekly loss.
A gap that opened up on the charts between the high on Oct. 23 at about 18,082.4 and the low on Oct. 24 suggests there could be a steep fall should the 18,435 support level be broken.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei was trading down 0.3 percent at 8351,6 points, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> was trading down 1.2 percent at 1,817.2 points at 0104 GMT.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis November 21st 2011

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.3430-1.3600	Up	1.3610	1.3430	1.3490		1.3600	1.3430
			1.3550	1.3370
USD/JPY	76.00-77.70	Down	78.30	76.50		77.10	76.00	77.70
			77.70	75.90
GBP/USD	1.5700-1.5880	Up	1.5880	1.5700	1.5760		1.5880	1.5700
			1.5820	1.5640
USD/CHF	0.9090-0.9260	Down	0.9320	0.9140		0.9200	0.9090	0.9260
			0.9260	0.9080
AUD/USD	0.9920-1.0090	Up	1.0100	0.9920	0.9980		1.0090	0.9920
			1.0040	0.9860
NIKKEI	8400-8580	Up	8590	8400	8460		8580	8400
			8520	8340
HANGSENG	18570-18750	Up	18760	18570	18630		18750	18570
			18690	18510
KOSPI	240.10-241.90	Up	242.00	240.10	240.70		241.90	240.10
			241.30	239.50
GOLD	1706.10-1728.60	Up	1728.60	1706.10	1713.60		1728.60	1706.10
			1721.10	1698.60

Kilau Emas Meredup

Emas dapat melemah ke $1,680/ons, dalam jangka pendek, menurut Barclays Capital berdasarkan analisa teknikal. Logam mulia pekan lalu turun 3.6% di tengah kecemasan atas krisis hutang Eropa.

"Harga emas melemah seiring penguatan dollar. Pasar ekuiti menyimpang akibat kecemasan atas penularam krisis Eropa dan ketidak pastian ekonomi dunia dan pasar finansial." Barclays menambahkan harga emas turun di bawah $1,750/ons terkait permintaan fisik yang menurun. Spot emas di $1,715.80/ons, turun $9 dari level penutupan.

ECB Maksimum Beli Obligasi €20 M/Minggu

 Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) diam-diam terapkan batas maksimum untuk program pembelian obligasinya yakni sebanyak €20 miliar per minggu, menurut laporan harian Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Harian ini tidak cantumkan sumber beritanya, namun menulis batas maksimum telah ada sejak dimulainya program pembelian obligasi pada tahun 2010 meski dirahasiakan. Merebaknya skeptisisme akan strategi pembelian obligasi telah mendorong bank sentral untuk kurangi batas maksimum hingga €20 miliar. ECB menolak untuk berikan komentar atas laporan tersebut.

Dewan gubernur memiliki wewenang untuk jumlah pembelian obligasi dan telah katakan tidak ada batas maksimum dan program pembelian obligasi bersifat sementara. Data bank sentral tunjukkan ECB hanya sekali lakukan pembelian melebihi €20 miliar yakni ketika aktifkan kembali program ini pada awal Agustus. Sejak pertengahan September, ECB hanya lakukan pembelian obligasi kurang dari €10 miliar. 

Saham AS Berjangka Tertopang Aksi Beli Obligasi ECB

Pasar saham berjangka AS terdongkrak naik di hari Jumat ditengah harapan bahwa pemimpin Eropa dan ECB akan merencanakan tambahakan langkah baru untuk mencegah krisis utang menular ke kawasan lainnya.

Terpantau sejauh ini indeks saham DJIA Futures menguat 0.58% ke level 11,807, sedangkan S&P500 futs naik 0.74% ke level 1,223.75 dan Nasdaq futures melejit 0.51% di level 2,279.75.

Di hari Jumat, ECB kembali mengintervensi dengan membeli obligasi sovereign Eropa, untuk meredam aksi jual di pasar obligasi Eropa dan akhirnya dapat mengangkat mata uang Euro.

Namun seiring krisis Eropa yang belum terselesaikan, para investor masih cemas setelah lembaga pemeringkat kredit Fitch Rating Agency mengatakan bahwa eksposur perbankan AS terhadap utang sovereign Eropa cukup membahayakan.

Draghi Desak Percepatan Implemetasi EFSF

Dalam Kongres Perbankan Eropa yang berlangsung di Frankfurt pada hari Jumat, Presiden ECB Mario Draghi mendesak para petinggi Uni Eropa untuk mempercepat peluncuran Fasilitas Stabilitas Keuangan Eropa (EFSF). Draghi berpendapat bahwa seharusnya fasilitas tersebut telah diluncurkan sejak lama, penundaan lebih lanjut mungkin akan memberikan konsekuensi merugikan bagi stabilitas keuangan zona Euro.

Dalam pidatonya, Presiden baru ECB ini juga mengingatkan tentang adanya resiko perlambatan lebih lanjut dalam aktivitas perekonomian di sebagian besar negara maju seiring memburuknya proyeksi ekonomi.

Sementara ECB dilaporkan masih terus melakukan pembelian obligasi Spanyol danItalia pada hari ini, yang mungkin menjadi alasan penurunan yield obligasi negara-negara Uni Eropa dari rekor tertinggi yang mereka cetak kemarin.

Isu Kerjasama ECB-IMF Kuatkan Euro

 Euro melejit seiring beredarnya isu ECB dapat berikan pinjaman dana kepada IMF untuk menambah kapasitas pendanaan IMF hingga dapat bantu Eropa perangi krisis utang. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.3587, jauhi level rendah harian 1.3447.

Narasumber Dow Jones news wires utarakan Eropa tengah pertimbangkan untuk membahas proposal dimana ECB dapat pinjamkan dana kepada IMF untuk biayai bailout bagi anggota zona-euro yang alami masalah pendanaan. "Hingga saat ini Jerman dan ECB masih menentang usulan tersebut, tapi tanpa adanya alternatif solusi lainnya maka proposal tersebut akan dibicarakan," tutur pejabat senior zona-euro kepada Dow Jones news wires. "Jika semua pihak setuju, maka kesepakatan dapat diumumkan pada pertemuan Eropa 9 Desember mendatang." Baik ECB dan IMF menolak untuk berikan komentar atas proposal ini.

Emas Bentuk Double Top

Pergerakan emas terlihat berhasil membentuk formasi double top dan saat ini sedang melakukan pullback ke atas menuju resistan 1734.96. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi jenuh jual. Pecahnya resistan 1734.96 berpotensi akan membawa emas menguat dengan bergerak menuju resistan 1755.08. Tetapi jika support 1703.30 ditembus maka emas cenderung akan meneruskan pelemahannya terhadap dollar dengan bergerak menuju support 1679.83.

Emas: Pola Bearish Terkuak

Peluang koreksi lanjutan ke 1708 sudah disebut pada proyeksi terdahulu. Sejauh ini, Kita sudah melihat level rendah terlihat di 1710. Sentimenbullish satu arah menjadi perhatian Kami, sehingga penembusan ke bawah 1745-50 dibutuhkan guna mengkonfirmasi bahwa pola bearish belum pudar. Hari ini, selama emas bertahan di bawah resisten 1732-36, Kami melihat harga berpotensi jatuh lagi ke 1697-1700 (level target harian). Pada titik itu, minat pembeli jangka menengah akan kembali. Hanya jika pecah ke bawah 1697, maka peluang pelemahan menuju 1680-87 terbuka. Kami tetap bearish selama harga tetap di bawah level kunci 1755-60.


Penulis: EW Benny - Analis yang berbasis di Dublin, Irlandia

Logam Mulia Dekati Target Rendah

Emas ditutup di bawah level $1,725/ons. Ini mensinyalkan emas siap bergerak ke kisaran $1,680/oz, dengan level resistance di $1,755/ons, berdasarkan analisa teknikal Barclays Capital.

Logam mulia turun 2.4% dikarenakan kecemasan pasar atas penyebaran krisis hutang zona Eropa yang dapat mendorong investor menarik investasi. Setelah gagal menembus level $35.70/ons, perak bergerak di bawah $33/ons. "target pelemahan perak di kisaran $30/ons." Kemarin (17/11) perak    turun 5.9%. Kontrak perak merosot ke level terendah dalam empat pekan di Comex. Perak Comex untuk pengiriman bulan Desember ditutup turun 6.9% menjadi $31.497/ons, setelah terkikis ke $31.040, level terendah sejak 21 Oktober. Spot emas di $1,714.20/ons, turun $5.70, dan perak di $31.30/ons, turun 41 sen dari level penutupan.

Rally Euro Berkat Janji PM Italia, Masih Rapuh

Di bandingkan sesi kemarin, mata uang tunggal Euro cenderung lebih kokoh di akhir pekan (Jumat, 18/11) dengan bertengger tipis di bawah level $1.35.

RallyEUR terbantu oleh janji PM baru Italia, Mario Monti, yang akan melakukan reformasi guna mengembalikan kepercayaan konsumen. PM Mario Monti kemarin menjabarkan prioritas kebijakannya yang mencakup reformasi dana pensiun dan sektor tenaga kerja, merubah sistem perpajakan dan menindak keras penggelapan pajak.

Namun demikian rally EUR tersebut terlihat masih rentan dan rapuh terhadap koreksi lantaran pasar masih di liputi pesimisme terhadap penanggulangan krisis,

Bahkan suasana krisis kini diperparah dengan ketegangan politik di negara Yunani akibat huru hara menentang kebijakan. Terjadi bentrokan antara polisi Yunani dengan pengunjuk rasa anti penghematan Italia yang mengumumkan reformasi penghematan dalam menanggapi krisis utang Eropa pada hari Kamis lalu.

Pada akhirnya, akibat memburuknya situasi di benua Eropa tersebut, pasar semakin cemas sehingga banyak yang melepas posisi dan enggan untuk masuk pasar terlebih dahulu sambil menunggu perkembangan positif dari Eropa.

Pasar Paksa ECB Untuk Bertindak

Kondisi hutang Eropa yang berada di level berbahaya, kredit global serta pasar ekuiti yang bereaksi negatif memaksa Bank Sentral Eropa untuk segera mengambil langkah guna menghentikan krisis dalam hitungan hari bukan lagi bulan, menurut penasehat investasi RBS Morgans, Christopher Macdonald. "Saat ini pasar terus mendorong pejabat Eropa untuk kembali melakukan negoisasi," menurut Macdonald.

"Langkah penghematan membutuhkan waktu yang lama namun pasar tidak memberi batas waktu bagi Eropa." ECB kemungkinan akan dipaksa untuk melakukan hal yang tidak mereka inginkan, berdasarkan yang tertulis di EFSF dan melakukan pembelian hutang zona Eropa dalam jumlah tak terbatas dengan cara mencetak uang, kata Macdonald. Direktur pelaksana Bell Potter, Charlie Aitken sependapat dengan hal itu. "Pasar sudah mulai murka dan memaksa untuk mendapatkan yang mereka inginkan," kata Aitken. "Pasar mata uang terus terkoreksi dari euro hingga dollar AS menjelang langkah pelonggaran zona Eropa." menurut Macdonald. Partisipan pasar harus bersikap waspada atas setiap rencana pada pertemuan darurat antara ECB, komisi Uni Eropa dan pejabat IMF.  Indeks S&P/ASX 200 -1.6% menjadi 4190.4.

EURUSD Dalam Formasi Penurunan Terakhir

 Bias intraday masih bearish di jangka pendek menguji area 1.3430, bahkan 1.3365. Bagaimanapun masih dibutuhkan closing daily dibawah area 1.3480 untuk memicu tekanan bearish lebih lanjut.

Resisten terdekat ada di area 1.3555, berbalik lagi diatas area tersebut dapat membawa harga ke zona netral di jangka pendek, namun selama harga masih bertahan dibawah area 1.3590, harga masih cenderung untuk lanjutkan downtrend.