Fundamental Analysis, November 15th 2011

Euro falls vs US dollar with more losses eyed

The euro slid against the U.S. dollar on Monday as new governments in Italy and Greece failed to ease fears about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, a crisis that German Chancellor Angela Merkel termed Europe's "toughest hour since World War Two." 

Italy paid a euro-era high price to sell five-year bonds on Monday, just a day after former European Commissioner Mario Monti was named to lead the country -- a move that had been hoped would help restore investor confidence.
News that Italian Treasury Director General Vittorio Grilli is considering resigning as early as Tuesday to take up a job in the private sector with investment bank J.P. Morgan, according to sources, added to the euro's woes.
In Greece, new Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, a former European Central Bank vice president, will have to win Wednesday's confidence vote in his cabinet before meeting euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels on Thursday, as uncertainty persisted over whether Athens will receive the next tranche of aid to avoid a default.
Papademos said on Monday that Greece's only choice was to remain in the euro zone, and the country had to widen its tax base and fight rampant tax evasion, a problem identified by economists as a serious hindrance to Greece's budget performance.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Europe faced its "toughest hour since World War Two" and urged her party to set aside misgivings about the euro and accept closer political integration as a solution to the bloc's deepening debt crisis.
But she offered no new ideas for resolving the crisis that has forced bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and stirred doubts about the survival of the 13-year-old currency area.

Wall St falls as euro-zone bond yields rise
U.S. stocks fell on Monday as rising bond yields in Italy and other euro-zone countries reminded investors that despite changes in governments, the region's debt crisis could still spin out of control.
Initial relief over the appointment of a technocrat to head the new government in Italy after the resignation of Silvio Berlusconi gave way to worries that unpopular austerity measures will not be enough to fix the country's finances.
Benchmark yields in Italy, France and Spain edged higher from the end of last week and closed near session highs. Rising bond yields are being watched carefully because every rise in interest rates threatens the ability of Italy and other countries to finance themselves. 

Stocks have lately focused on headlines from Europe as traders react to the escalating sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone. Italian benchmark bond yields rose above 7 percent last week, a level that forced countries with a lower debt burden to seek bailouts. With debt of more than 2 trillion euros, Italy is considered too big to bail out.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 74.70 points, or 0.61 percent, at 12,078.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 12.07 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,251.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 21.53 points, or 0.80 percent, at 2,657.22.

Gold drops on dollar rise, tracks weak equities
Gold fell on Monday on a stronger dollar, tracking riskier assets as investors once again focused on the huge euro zone sovereign debt problems after initial optimism as Italy and Greece rushed to form governments.
Bullion was pressured as the euro tumbled against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe could be living through its toughest hour since World War Two, and as Italy paid a euro-lifetime high price to sell five-year bonds to wary investors. 

The yellow metal -- a traditional safe haven which has recently taken to tracking the equity markets -- was still over 1 percent higher in the last two sessions on some hopes for Europe's debt crisis. Bullion prices were also supported by a bullish forecast by Goldman Sachs.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery <GCZ1> settled down $9.70 at $1,778.40 an ounce. Trading volume was below 90,000 lots, preliminary Reuters data showed, set to be one of the weakest sessions this year.

Crude ends down on euro zone recession fears
U.S. crude futures fell on Monday as data showing a sharp drop in euro zone industrial production stoked worries the region could slide into recession, painting a gloomy outlook for world oil demand.
New leaders in Italy and Greece began to form governments, but a market rally reflecting optimism about their appointment stalled. 

Italy had to pay a euro-lifetime record to sell five-year bonds as investors were wary of buying until Mario Monti, the prime-minister designate, can launch serious economic reforms. 

New Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos faced his first problem: the head of the main conservative party rejected any toughening of austerity measures and refused to sign a letter that would convince European leaders Greece was earnest in carrying out reforms. 

A Reuters poll ahead of weekly inventory reports forecast that domestic crude stocks declined by 1.1 million barrels last week. The poll also forecast that distillates fell 2.2 million barrels and gasoline stocks dipped by 700,000 barrels. [EIA/S]
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude <CLZ1> fell 85 cents, or 0.86 percent, to settle at $98.14 a barrel.


Nikkei to open down as euro zone worries persist
The Nikkei stock average is set to slip on Tuesday, tracking falls in overseas shares on concerns about rising bond yields in Italy and other euro-zone countries.  

Yields of Italian five-year bonds reached a record of 6.29 percent on Monday, up nearly a full percentage point from the last auction in mid October, and benchmark yields in France and Spain closed near session highs.
U.S. and European shares, led by financials, fell sharply on the news, reminding investors the region's debt crisis could still spin out of control.  

Nikkei futures in Chicago ended at 8,575, down 45 points from their Osaka close of 8,620. <JNIc1>. The Nikkei <.N225> is likely to trade in a range of 8,500 to 8,600 on Tuesday, strategists said.
On Monday, the benchmark Nikkei <.N225> rose 1.1 percent to 8,603.70 and the broader Topix index <.TOPX> added 0.9 percent to 735.85.

Seoul shares seen lower; SK Tel eyed after Hynix deal
Seoul shares may open lower on Tuesday as rising bond yields in Italy and other euro zone countries rekindled worries that the debt crisis in Europe is a long way from being resolved, even after leadership changes in Italy and Greece.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that Europe could be living through its toughest hour since World War Two as new leaders in Italy and Greece rushed to form governments and limit the damage from the euro zone debt crisis.  

Banking stocks such as KB Financial Group <105560.KS> may come under pressure after their U.S. peers fell sharply.
Memory chip makers like Samsung Electronics <005930.KS> and Hynix Semiconductor <000660.KS> may also decline after the U.S. Philadelphia semiconductor index <.SOX> lost 1.3 percent overnight.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ended up 2.1 percent at 1,902.8 on Monday.

HK shares seen lower, banks eyed as BofA sells CCB stake
Hong Kong shares were set to dip on Tuesday as the spike in euro zone bond yields pointed to weak investor appetite, and  financials were likely to be the biggest drag following Bank of America's <BAC.N> further stake sale in CCB <0939.HK>. 

The Hang Seng index <.HSI> ended up 1.9 percent at 19,508.18 points with consumer-related names driving gains although flagging turnover suggested investors remained wary.
That caution stemmed in part from developments in Europe.  Italy paid a record euro-era high to sell five-year bonds, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe may be living through its toughest hour since World War Two.
Further keeping a check on any upside, banking shares, the heaviest weighted in regional benchmark indices, were expected to be on the backfoot after Bank of America decided to sell most of its remaining stake in China Construction Bank <0939.HK> for $6.6 billion.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.4 percent while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was off 0.2 percent as of 00.55 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Ekonomi Jerman Akan Melambat

EkonomiJerman masih dalam kondisi baik, tapi akan melambat dalam beberapa bulan mendatang, menurut Menteri Ekonomi Philipp Roesler. Data hari ini  tunjukan GDP kwartalan Jerman tumbuh 0,5% di kuartal ketiga 2011, lebih baik dari publikasi sebelumnya 0,3%. Namun sentimen ekonomi Jerman kembali terpuruk ke level -55.2 untuk bulan November, lebih buruk dari prediksi -51.8.

"Setelah alami pemulihan yang cepat, ekspansi ekonomi kini hadapai perkembangan ekonomi makro yang lebih lambat," kata Roesler. “Ekonomi Jerman telah lampaui tingkat sebelum krisis keuangan terjadi, namun turbulensi pasar keuangan membuat konsumen dan bisnis tidak nyaman.”

Sementara itu, euro melemah di sesi London. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan di 1.3540, dekat level rendah harian 1.3528

Yield Obligasi Spanyol Dekati Rekor Tinggi

 Yieldobligasi Spanyol tenor 10 tahun naik menjadi 6.27% pada hari Selasa (15/11). Imbal hasil instrumen hutang pemerintah kian mendekati rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa, 6,29% yang tercapai pada Juli silam.

Biaya pinjaman sudah melampaui 6% hari Senin, di tengah gejolak pasar yang mempengaruhi negara-negara Eropa Selatan. Pemerintah berencana untuk menaikkan pinjaman sedikitnya 2,5 miliar euro (3,4 miliar dolar) dengan penerbitan obligasi bertenor antara 12 dan 18 bulan hari ini.

Emas Berpotensi Lanjutkan Pelemahan

 Pergerakan emas terlihat masih berpotensi meneruskan pelemahannya terhadap dollar. Pecahnya support 1756.43 berpotensi akan membawa emas melemah cukup tajam dengan bergerak menuju support berikutnya di kisaran 1742.13. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi jenuh jual. Waspadai jika emas tertahan kuat di atas support 1756.43 berpeluang akan melakukan rebound terhadap dollar dengan bergerak ke atas menuju area resistan 1774.14.

Positif, Kinerja Ekonomi Dua Raksasa Eropa Q3

Indikatorperekonomian dua negara kapitalis terbesar Eropa dirilis positif hari ini (15/11). Meskipun secara umum, kondisi kawasan masih carut marut diterjang krisis hutang.

Ekonomi Jerman tumbuh 0,5% pada kuartal III. Pertumbuhan yang kuat sudah dimulai sejak awal tahun ini, sebagaimana diungkapkan oleh Kantor Statistik Federal. Selain itu, GDP kuartal II direvisi naik sebesar 0,2 persentase poin sehingga pertumbuhan menjadi 0,3% pada periode tersebut. Sementara untuk GDP tahun yang disesuaikan, kenaikan sebesar 2,5% pada kuartal III. Kantor Statistik Federal mengatakan bahwa kontribusi signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan kuartal III berasal dari pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga serta pembentukan modal dalam bisnis permesinan dan peralatan.

Beberapa jam setelahnya, pemerintah Prancis merilis GDP kuartal III 2011. Ekonomi Perancis tumbuh 0,4% pada periode tersebut atau sedikit lebih cepat dibanding harapan. Demikian rilis Kantor Statistik Nasional INSEE hari Selasa. Pemerintah sebelumnya memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan keluar pada nominal 0,3%. Pada saat yang sama, INSEE merilis angka revisi untuk pertumbuhan kuartal II lalu. Perekonomian terbukti benar-benar kontraksi 0,1%, bukan tumbuh 0% seperti pernyataan sebelumnya. Sejak awal tahun ini, produk domestik bruto telah tumbuh 1,7%. Prancis harus mencapai target pertumbuhan tahunan, 1,75% guna menjaga kepercayaan pasar.
Pada kuartal pertama silam, produk domestik bruto tumbuh 0,9% saja. Untuk tahun depan, pertumbuhan diperkirakan sangat lambat sehingga
Pemerintah meramalkan pertumbuhan 1% untuk 2012. Sedangkan Komisi Eropa bahkan memperkirakan rasio pertumbuhan hanya setengah dari target pemerintah, yakni sebesar 0,6%.

Inilah Periode Tersulit Euro Sejak Perang Dunia II !

 Kurs mata uang euro melemah lagi terhadap dollar AS di hari Selasa (15/11). Pemerintahan baru di Italia dan Yunani gagal meredam ketakutan pasar terhadap krisis hutang sovereign zona Eropa, suatu krisis yang disebut oleh Angela Merkel sebagai kondisi tersulit Eropa sejak Perang Dunia II.

Italia adalah contohnya nyata dari gangguan sistemik Eropa. Negara ini harus membayar obligasi bertenor 5 tahun pada level tertinggi sepanjang masa, hanya satu hari setelah Mario Monti ditunjuk sebagai kepala pemerintahan baru. Menteri Keuangan Italia, Vittoria Grilli, bahkan sedang mempertimbangkan untuk mundur pada hari Selasa untuk menerima tawaran berkarir di JP Morgan. Kabar itu kian menambah kekacauan Euro.

Dari Yunani, Perdana Menteri Lucas Papademos masih harus memenangkan mosi keyakinan kabinet sebelum hadir pada rapat menteri keuangan Eropa di Brussel hari Kamis (17/11). Papademos sempat mengatakan bahwa pilihan satu-satunya bagi Yunani adalah tetap bertahan di zona euro.

Untuk kesekian kalinya, otoritas Eropa harus memberi respon kebijakan untuk mencegah kehancuran Italia dan Yunani. Namun langkah lanjutan belum tentu dapat menyelesaikan krisis, euro alhasil masih diprediksi tertekan dalam beberapa pekan ke depan. Nilai tukar mata uang tunggal di akhir tahun 2011 diperkirakan anjlok hingga ke level 1.2900.

Sejauh ini, pair currency EUR/USD telah melemah lebih dari 0.8% hingga level 1.3600, tembus ke bawah MA100 week di kisaran 1.3635. Target penurunan selanjutnya masih terletak di area 1.3360 (low bulan September) dengan support terdekat di area 1.3145 (titik terendah bulan Oktober). Sementara untuk sisi atasnya, level resisten terdekat tampak di area 1.3870.

Pesimisme Pasar Pudarkan Kilau Emas

Emas membukukan pelemahan moderat di hari Selasa (15/11). Logam mulia ini bergerak mengikuti penurunan harga aset-aset berisiko yang tertekan oleh kekhawatiran pelaku pasar terhadap kemampuan zona Eropa untuk menanggulangi krisis. Pesimisme kembali mencuat setelah terjadi kenaikan yield obligasi Italia, yang sedikit banyak mencerminkan ketegangan investor.

Kendati biasanya tertopang oleh daya tarik safe haven, di lain sisi Emas juga terimbas oleh aksi jual panik di bursa keuangan regional. Sentimen pasar tertekan oleh kesulitan otoritas Eropa untuk mengatasi krisis hutang. Saham-saham Asia terpantau anjlok pasca kenaikan yield obligasi zona Eropa. Fakta di lapangan cukup merefleksikan keraguan atas kemampuan pembuat kebijakan Italia dan Yunani untuk mendorong reformasi. Pekerjaan rumah utama bagi kedua negara saat ini adalah penurunan defisit anggaran agar krisis hutang teratasi dan keyakinan pasar hadir kembali.

Spot Emas sejauh ini melemah 0.6% ke level $1768.45 per troy ons, meneruskan pelemahan sejak sesi sebelumnya. Analis teknikal Reuters, Wang Tao, mengatakan spot dapat melemah ke $1735.69 dalam beberapa hari ke depan. Support terdekat masih tampak di area $1750, sementara resisten kuat di area $1800.

Technical Analysis November 15th 2011

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.3550-1.3720	Down	1.3780	1.3600		1.3660	1.3550	1.3720
			1.3720	1.3540
USD/JPY	76.20-77.90	Down	78.50	76.70		77.30	76.20	77.90
			77.90	76.10
GBP/USD	1.5810-1.5990	Down	1.6050	1.5870		1.5930	1.5810	1.5990
			1.5990	1.5810
USD/CHF	0.9000-0.9170	Up	0.9180	0.9000	0.9060		0.9170	0.9000
			0.9120	0.8940
AUD/USD	1.0120-1.0290	Down	1.0350	1.0170		1.0230	1.0120	1.0290
			1.0290	1.0110
NIKKEI	8330-8510	Down	8570	8390		8450	8330	8510
			8510	8320
HANGSENG	19300-19480	Down	19540	19360		19420	19300	19480
			19480	19290
KOSPI	245.10-246.90	Down	247.50	245.70		246.30	245.10	246.90
			246.90	245.00
GOLD	1754.70-1777.20	Up	1777.20	1754.70	1762.20		1777.20	1754.70
			1769.70	1747.20

Teknikal EUR: Indikator Belum Bisa Pacu Rally

Secara umum setelah mata uang tunggal Euro terkoreksi tajam, pola pergerakan akan cenderung terkikis karena EUR sendiri masih sensitif dengan berita-berita yang muncul dari Eropa.

Dari sisi teknikal, indikator MACD dan Moving Average-harian dari EUR yang mulai terlihat downtrend, membuat potensi penurunan berpeluang menyeret Euro ke level 1.3600 untuk melanjutkan ke area 1.3560 yang merupakan Fibonacci 61.8%, hingga meyentuh 1.3500. 

Sementara bila mengacu indikator Stochastic yang cukup terlihat Up-trend, meskipun juga rentan, akan sedikit memberikan peluang bagi EUR untuk rally setidaknya ke area 1.3640, kemudian kemudian 1.3680 hingga 1.3740.

GBPUSD: Potensial Jenuh Jual, Resistance di Kisaran 1.5901 – 1.5980

Setelah melemah cukup tajam. Saat ini poundsterling berada di area support kuat dimana ada peluang pound akan menguat kembali. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi jenuh jual. Pecahnya resistan 1.5901 berpotensi akan membawa pound menguat dan bergerak menuju resistan 1.5980. Waspadai jika support 1.5866 ditembus dimana harga cenderung akan meneruskan pelemahannya dengan bergerak menuju support 1.5800.

EURUSD: Dalam Kondisi Sideway, Potensial Resistance di 1.3661 – 1.3773

 Perdagangan EURUSD pada grafik 4 jam-an terlihat berada dalam kondisi sideways. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi jenuh jual. Pecahnya resistan 1.3661 berpotensi akan membawa euro menguat dan bergerak ke atas menuju resistan berikutnya di kisaran 1.3773. Waspadai jika support 1.3573 ditembus maka euro akan semakin jatuh ke dalam dengan bergerak menuju support 1.3481.