Jumat, 07 Desember 2012

Fundamental Analysis

Euro slides on rate-cut hopes after ECB decision
The euro was on track for its sharpest decline against the dollar in a month on Thursday after comments from the European Central Bank chief and a downgrade to the region's growth and inflation forecasts boosted expectations of an interest rate cut.
Political chaos in Italy drove Italian bond yields higher and added to losses in the euro. Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party withdrew its support for Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday, setting up a conflict that could force an early election.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at a news conference after the bank's decision to keep its main interest rate at 0.75 percent, said a wide discussion on rates had preceded the consensus decision to leave them on hold.
Draghi also said policymakers discussed setting a negative rate on the ECB's deposit facility in an attempt to encourage banks not to hoard cash at the ECB but lend it into the real economy instead.
Draghi's comments came as the ECB predicted the euro zone economy would shrink again in 2013 and sharply lowered its growth and inflation forecasts. It also said risks to growth remained on the downside.

Apple's gains lift tech in quiet day before jobs data

U.S. stocks closed modestly higher on Thursday, a day ahead of the key monthly jobs report, as a rebound in shares of Apple helped boost technology shares.
Investors are also keeping watch on the "fiscal cliff" negotiations in Washington to see if lawmakers can reach a deal to avoid a series of spending cuts and tax hikes beginning in January.
Apple climbed 1.6 percent to $547.24, reversing losses incurred at the open. The stock was coming off its biggest one-day drop in four years on Wednesday, which occurred on concerns about higher capital gains taxes in 2013 and the company's tablet computer market share.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 39.55 points, or 0.30 percent, to 13,074.04 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 4.66 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,413.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 15.57 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 2,989.27.

Gold up on ECB rate cut talk, non-farm payrolls eyed

Gold rose on Thursday on short-covering before a U.S. employment  report and after comments from the European Central Bank chief boosted expectations of an interest rate cut.
Bullion buying took off after ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro zone economy was likely to shrink next year as it has in 2012, and downside risks to growth prevailed for the region battered by a prolonged debt crisis.
The metal rebounded from the previous session's one-month low but gains faced resistance from technical selling around its 100-day moving average near $1,700 an ounce. Sharp losses in euro and crude futures also limited gold's gains.
 Funds have been liquidating of late as open interest in U.S. gold futures, a gauge of market activity, fell to a three-month low.
U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCG3> for February delivery settled up $8 an ounce at $1,701.80, with trading volume around 25 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil falls on euro zone concerns, dollar strength

Oil prices fell on Thursday after the head of the European Central Bank said the euro zone's economic outlook faces "downside risk" and a recovery may not happen until later in 2013.
European economic woes could crimp global demand for oil, and investors also remain wary of budget negotiations among lawmakers in the United States. If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement within three weeks, around $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts would be triggered for 2013.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.75 percent on Thursday and its president, Mario Draghi, warned of more weakness in the single-currency area.
The euro weakened and the dollar rose more than 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies. A stronger U.S. currency usually pressures dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
U.S. January crude <CLc1> lost $1.62 a barrel to settle at $86.26, posting a fourth straight day of losses.

Nikkei set to tread in range ahead of U.S. jobs data

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to tread in range on Friday after closing above the key
9,500-mark for the first time in seven months in the previous session and ahead of U.S. jobs data.
The Nikkei has rallied 10.2 percent over the past 3-1/2 weeks as the yen has weakened after Shinzo Abe, the leader of the main opposition party which is expected to win a Dec. 16 general election, called for the Bank of Japan to embark on "unlimited easing" and set an inflation target of 2 percent.
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast 93,000 jobs were created in the United States last month compared with 171,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is seen at 7.9 percent.
The benchmark Nikkei is up 12.9 percent this year, in line with a 12.4 percent rise in the U.S. S&P 500 <.INX> but behind a 14 percent gain in the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 <.STOXX> index.

Seoul shares seen inching up as investors await U.S. data

Seoul shares are likely to edge up on Friday, tracing modest Wall Street gains as investors await
U.S. employment data and positive signs in budget talks. 
"The main board is expected to rise on Friday, but gains will be limited in the absence of game-changing events since the last session as we await upcoming U.S. employment data and the
weekend," said Cho Byung-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.
Global shares edged higher on Thursday, with U.S. stocks modestly advancing as investors watched for signs of progress in the "fiscal cliff" talks.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> edged up 0.13 percent to close at 1,949.62 points on Thursday, its highest closing level since October 18.

Hong Kong shares set for third-straight weekly gain

Hong Kong shares could post a third-straight weekly gain, but are expected to be relatively steady on Friday as investors await a U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the day.   
PICC Group <1339.HK> gained as much as 6.3 percent in grey market trading on Thursday, signalling expectations that the Chinese state-owned insurer will climb in its official debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday. [ID:nL4N09G1OQ]
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slipped 0.1 percent to 22,249.8 points, while the China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong rose 0.3 percent.
On the week, they are each up 1 and 2.3 percent respectively, set for a third-straight weekly gain. [ID:nL4N09G1NO]   
 Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.1 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.5 percent at 0108 GMT.


Source : Reuters

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