Technical Analysis, August 14th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2260-1.2430	Up	1.2440	1.2260	1.2320		1.2430	1.2260
			1.2380	1.2200
USD/JPY	77.40-79.10	Down	79.70	77.90		78.50	77.40	79.10
			79.10	77.30
GBP/USD	1.5590-1.5770	Up	1.5770	1.5590	1.5650		1.5770	1.5590
			1.5710	1.5530
USD/CHF	0.9650-0.9820	Down	0.9880	0.9700		0.9760	0.9650	0.9820
			0.9820	0.9640
AUD/USD	1.0430-1.0600	Up	1.0610	1.0430	1.0490		1.0600	1.0430
			1.0550	1.0370
NIKKEI	8690-8870	Down	8930	8750		8810	8690	8870
			8870	8680
HANGSENG	19840-20020	Down	20080	19900		19960	19840	20020
			20020	19830
KOSPI	256.20-258.00	Down	258.60	256.80		257.40	256.20	258.00
			258.00	256.10
GOLD	1602.00-1624.50	Down	1632.00	1609.50		1617.00	1602.00	1624.50
			1624.50	1602.00

Kecemasan Pertumbuhan Global Tekan Kinerja Saham AS Berjangka

Pasar saham AS berjangka diperdagangkan melemah di hari Senin, seiring indikasi pelambatan pertumbuhan di Jepang serta proyeksi data GDP China yang dipangkas lebih lemah.Terpantau sejauh ini indeks DJIA futures melemah -0.02% di level 13,169, sementara S&P500 futs anjlok -0.02% ke level 1,402.25 dan Nasdaq futures flat 0.05% diperdagangkan di level 2,722.00 sejauh ini.Menjelang rilis laporan pendapatan korporasi di AS, para investor masih terpengaruh oleh data makroekonomi yang negatif dan memberikan gambaran suramnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia.

GDP di Jepang hanya tumbuh 1.4% di triwulan kedua, kontras dengan revisi kenaikan 5.5% YoY di triwulan sebelumnya, dan dibawah perkiraan ekonom sebesar 2.7%. Akibat data ini indeks Nikkei Jepang dan China anjlok tajam memotori pelemahan bursa regional menyusul kekecewaan para investor setelah pejabat Beijing menunda pelonggaran moneter di akhir pekan.Selain itu laporan dari Merril Lynch untuk memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan China menjadi 7.7% dari sebelumnya 8% memberikan tambahan katalis negatif dan mengurangi minat beli bursa saham AS berjangka.

GDP Yunani Berkontraksi 6.2% di Triwulan Kedua

Laporan GDP Yunani dilaporkan mengalami kontraksi sebesar -6.2% di triwulan kedua tahun ini dibandingkan periode yang sama setahun sebelumnya, sedikit membaik dibanding kontraksi -6.5% di triwulan pertama.Data yang dilaporkan badan statistic Yunani, Elstat ini sekaligus membuktikan ekonomi Yunani masih sulit untuk keluar dari resesi dan memasuki tahun kelima nya diekspektasikan untuk merosot lagi lebih dari -7% tahun ini.PM Yunani, Antonis Samaras mengharapkan laju pertumbuhan GDP baru bisa kembali positif di tahun 2014 mendatang.

Emas Terkerek Naik Seiring Ekspektasi Stimulus

Emas berjangka terkerek naik lagi sejak sesi Eropa hari Senin, tampaknya akan melanjutkan penguatan untuk empat hari berturut-turut meskipun logam mulia lainnya berada dalam tekanan. Terpantau sejauh ini harga Emas untuk kontrak bulan Desember, menguat 0.25% ke level 1624.12, setelah meraih titik tertinggi intraday di 1624.97 dan level terendah harian nya di 1619.42.

Penguatan Emas sebagian besar masih dipicu oleh harapan stimulus moneter dari bank sentral global. Selain itu kekhawatiran inflasi dan potensi pencetakan uang lebih lanjut sebagai stimulus memberikan topangan yang cukup solid pada Emas.

Faktor penopang Emas yang masih berupa harapan ini, dapat berubah kedepannya, khususnya jika spekulasi terhadap stimulus moneter dalam waktu dekat dari The Fed maupun bank sentral lainnya mulai pudar. Apalagi gambaran suram ekonomi Jepang menunjukkan bahwa rebound pada tingkat pengeluaran konsumen mulai kehilangan momentum di saat bersamaan krisis utang Eropa tertekan juga oleh permintaan global yang terus merosot.

Teruslah Berharap ( Untuk Stimulus )

Pesimisme mungkin merupakan kata yang paling tepat untuk menggambarkan kondisi pasar saat ini. Setelah berharap banyak terhadap stimulus lanjutan dari Eropa yang diwakili Troika, yaitu Uni Eropa, ECB dan IMF, dan dari AS yang diwakili oleh Federal Reserve AS dengan stimulus QE3-nya, maka saat ini China menjadi tumpuan harapan stimulus. Merujuk pada data pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dirilis lebih lemah atau lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang diwakili data Trade Balance per hari Jumat lalu, tepatnya pada tanggal 10 Agustus 2012, harapan adanya stimulus dari China semakin berkembang, walau pun Beijing masih belum memastikan akan keluarnya stimulus tersebut karena harus menghadapi kekhawatiran harga perumahan dan real estate yang kembali rebound, karena ditakutkan akan menimbulkan noda inflasi ditengah upayanya untuk memulihkan kondisi perekonomian.

Tetapi justru dengan prospek yang masih belum bagus untuk sektor aktivitas industri di AS, Eropa dan China sendiri membuat pasar masih optimis bahwa stimulus akan dimunculkan, baik dari AS, Eropa, maupun China. Hanya saja, yang masih menjadi pertanyaan adalah: KAPAN? Ya, kapan stimulus akan diluncurkan. Hal ini tentunya merujuk pada kriteria yang telah di munculkan oleh pasar, dimana ada kejatuhan atau pelambatan ekonomi, maka dari sanalah harapan akan stimulus akan muncul. Dan ditengah-tengah harapan tersebut, maka aksi verbal yang sudah-sudah akan kembali dimunculkan oleh para petinggi ekonomi, seperti yang pernah di lontarkan Ben S. Bernanke terkait pernyataannya yang kapan saja akan siap menggelontorkan stimulus lanjutan apabila diperlukan. Hal yang sama juga dilakukan para petinggi lainnya. Lalu bagaimana dengan prospek dari negara-negara berkembang, yang juga menjadi tumpuan bagi negara-negara maju? Hal ini sepertinya masih belum mampu memberikan dukungan atas kinerja pasar. Hal ini berkaitan dengan pertumbuhan sektor industri dan perbankan yang masih terkena dampak dari krisis hutang di Eropa dan pelambatan ekonomi di AS dan China.

Harapan stimulus banyak bermunculan, sebagai akibat keputusasaan pasar terhadap kinerja pasar keuangan yang terus mengalami sinyal bearish akibat tidak adanya perbaikan atau kemajuan perkembangan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia. Eropa yang masih berkutat dengan Spanyol, Italia, Yunani dan negara-negara anggota lainnya, masih berusaha untuk melakukan pemulihan secepatnya, melalui aksi beli obligasi pemerintah negara-negara yang bermasalah, walau hingga saat ini wujud keberhasilannya masih jauh dari wujud harapan yang positif.

QE3 yang menjadi harapan keberhasilan dari Federal Reserve yang berusaha untuk memulihkan kondisi ekonominya sepertinya kembali menjadi angin lalu, hilang begitu saja, gone with the (bearish) wind. Hal ini akibat reaksi pasar yang berharap akan adanya stimulus dan harapan bahwa stimulus akan muncul sewaktu-waktu memberikan potensi yang masih belum jelas keberadaannya. Stimulus saat ini yang banyak dinanti selain QE3 dari AS yaitu kebijakan pelonggaran moneter terhadap perekonomian, bukan adanya peluncuran Operation Twist, yang selama ini justru ditanggapi dingin oleh pasar. Mengapa? Karena kebijakan untuk “secepatnya mendapatkan dana terlebih dahulu” masih diragukan pasar akan kekuatannya, dimana dana yang diperlukan sebesar sekitar 400 miliar dollar AS, hanya tersisa 180 miliar dollar AS beberapa bulan belakangan. Tentunya akan menjadi pertimbangan bahwa kurangnya dana akan menjadi dasar pertimbangan keberhasilan stimulus tersebut.

Bagaimana dengan China? China pun demikian. Demi menghindari terjadinya economic bubble yang sempat terjadi pada kisaran tahuan 2009, pemerintah Beijing berusaha untuk menekan tingkat pertumbuhan real estate, sementara di sisi lainnya, berusaha untuk memulihkan kondisi ekspor dan impor yang turun secara bersamaan. Stimulus pelonggaran kebijakan untuj persyaratan perbankan sepertinya saat ini menjadi pedang bermata dua bagi pemerintah China sendiri, dimana pelonggaran untuk perbankan justru menjadi boomerang, dimana ternyata harga perumahan justru kembali meningkat sebagai dampak dari pelonggaran kebijakan perbankan tersebut. Alih-alih digunakan untuk pemulihan sektor industri, kesempatan itu justru dimanfaatkan untuk pertumbuhan sektor real estate.

Berharap pada stimulus mungkin masih menjadi tumpuan harapan momentum bagi pasar, ditengah kepastian ekonomi bersama dengan data-data ekonomi untuk mendulang keuntungan. Karena itu, berharap pada adanya stimulus, walau bukan aksi pamungkas, tetapi masih memiliki prospek yang cukup memuaskan untuk saat ini. Maka dari itu, berharaplah bahwa stimulus akan diluncurkan sesegera mungkin.

Fundamental Analysis, August 13th, 2012

Euro posts weekly loss vs dollar, yen

 

The euro posted its first weekly drop against the dollar and yen in three weeks on Friday as investors refocused on the uncertainty surrounding possible European Central Bank action to contain the debt crisis and deteriorating growth in the euro zone. 

A weaker-than-expected rise in Chinese exports, which followed disappointing German data earlier this week, stoked concerns about global economic growth. That boosted the safe-haven dollar and yen and pressured commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.Investors booked profits on a rally sparked by ECB President Mario Draghi, who said the bank would do whatever it takes to save the euro, including buying bonds of stressed countries to bring down borrowing costs. 

But after the initial euphoria, markets began to realize that any intervention would depend on troubled countries activating the euro zone's rescue funds first. The permanent ESM fund still needs a green light from the German Constitutional Court, which rules on Sept. 12.The euro <EUR=> fell 0.1 percent to $1.2290, pulling further away from a one-month high of $1.2443 set on Reuters data on Monday. It had earlier hit a one-week low of $1.2239 after breaking support in the $1.2250 level. It also fell 0.5 percent to 96.21 yen <EURJPY=>. On the week, the euro lost 0.8 percent against the dollar and 1.3 percent versus the yen.The Australian dollar <AUD=D4> fell to $1.0575, a day after touching $1.0615, its highest since March 20. 

S&P 500 ekes out gains to run streak to six days

The Standard & Poor's 500 finished slightly higher on Friday to run its streak to six straight sessions, but activity was light and gains were slight as the market enters a seasonally slow period. 

The Dow and the S&P 500 closed out their fifth straight week of gains, led once again by expectations for global central bank stimulus despite discouraging signs for growth like weak data from China. 

Overall, the S&P has gained a scant 0.3 percent over the past three sessions, a sign that while investors aren't looking to cut positions, they're also reluctant to make robust moves above the three-month highs the S&P has been hovering around.Volume was incredibly light, with about 4.97 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion. 

Yahoo <YHOO.O> shares fell 5.4 percent to $15.15 a day after it said it may reconsider what it does with the cash it gets from a multibillion-dollar sale of half of its stake in Alibaba Group. Yahoo previously promised to return most of the cash to shareholders. For the week, the Dow rose 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq has gained in four of the past five weeks. 

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 42.76 points, or 0.32 percent, to 13,207.95 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 2.97 points, or 0.21 percent, at 1,405.77. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> advanced 2.22 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 3,020.86.

Gold up on stimulus hopes after weak Chinese data

Gold rose on Friday and also posted a weekly gain, as disappointing Chinese trade and new bank-lending data suggested policymakers there may act to boost sputtering growth.Worries about food inflation also boosted gold after the U.S. government said the worst drought in more than half a century has battered corn and soybean crops in the world's main agricultural exporter with larger losses than expected. Corn futures rose to an all-time high before settling lower. 

Bullion broke ranks with declining U.S. equities after the latest disappointing Chinese data showed July exports rose just 1 percent from a year ago, with new loans at a 10-month low. A day earlier, data showed China's factory output growth slowed unexpectedly in July. Spot gold <XAU=> rose 0.2 percent to $1,620.60 an ounce by 2:43 p.m. EDT (1843 GMT), rebounding from a low from earlier in the session at $1,605.20. 

The metal posted a weekly gain of 1 percent largely on hopes for stimulus measures by China based on weak economic data. U.S. gold for December <GCZ2> settled up $2.60 at $1,622.80 an ounce.

Oil Falls as China Export Growth Slows, IEA Cuts Forecast

 

Oil fell as China’s export growth slowed and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts in signs that the global economic recovery is slowing.Prices declined 0.5 percent as China’s customs bureau reported outbound shipments in July increased 1 percent from a year earlier after an 11 percent rise in June. It was the worst export growth since 2009. The IEA reduced its estimate of 2012 world consumption by 250,000 barrels a day to 89.6 million. 

Oil for September delivery fell 49 cents to settle at $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It decreased as much as 1.8 percent to $91.71 in intraday trading. Today’s decline trimmed a weekly advance to 1.6 percent. It was the fourth gain in five weeks.Brent crude for September settlement decreased 27 cents to end the session at $112.95 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The July growth in Chinese exports was slower than the 8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Imports rose 4.7 percent versus the survey estimate of 7 percent and a 6.3 percent increase in June. 

Nikkei set to rise, gains capped by lack of momentum

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to inch up on Monday, still supported by hopes forfurther stimulus, but faces tough technical resisitance and may struggle amid a lack of reasons to buy. Japan's April-June GDP figures, due to be announced just before the market opens, could also influence sentiment for the day's trading. 

The Nikkei rose 3.9 percent last week, its biggest weekly gain since February after speculation that more global stimuluswas on the way spurred a four-day rally.  Disappointing data from China on Thursday bolstered such hopes but also sapped risk sentiment on Friday, when the benchmark index fell 1 percent. 

Japan's earnings season, now in its last throes, has been largely disappointing, with 53 percent of the 152 Nikkei companies that have reported results falling short of guidance and many firms cutting profit outlooks due to a strong yen and the impact of a global slowdown on demand. The Nikkei is now up 5.2 percent on the year, but is still 13.3 percent off its one-year high hit on March 27 of 10,255.15, hurt by concerns about falling demand due to the euro zone debt crisis, a faltering U.S. recovery and a slowdown in China. 

Seoul shares seen losing steam after five-day rally

Seoul shares are expected to trade in a tight range on Monday as investors take a breather after a five-day rally backed by hopes of decisive policy action from major central banks to bolster growth and address a deepening fiscal crisis in Europe.The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 0.3 percent on Friday to close at 1,946.4 points, a 5.3 percent weekly rise that was its best in seven months. 

Hopes of renewed bond-buying by the European Central Bank and gloomy Chinese data, which left the door open for further supportive measures for the world's second-largest economy, lifted the KOSPI to its three-month highs, smashing above its 60-day and 120-day moving averages. Foreign investors were the main drivers, gobbling up more than a net 3 trillion won ($2.65 billion) of shares last week.  The main bourse is up 6.6 percent for the year but still 5.4 percent short of its 2012-high of 2,057.28 points registered on March 14 at the peak of a first-quarter liquidity rally.

    

Hong Kong shares seen starting lower, earnings in focus

Hong Kong shares were set to start the week lower on Monday, with investors eyeing corporate profits to gauge the extent of a slowdown in China after data last week suggested it could extend into a seventh quarter. 

Sunshine Oilsands <0746.HK> and MTR Corporation <0066.HK>, Hong Kong's subway operator, head a list of companies expected to post first-half earnings reports later in the day.Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slipped 0.7 percent from a three-month high, but closed up 2.4 percent for the week at 20,136.1. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong lost 0.6 percent on Friday, but rose 2.5 percent last week.  

Short selling interest accounted for 12.2 percent of total Friday's turnover in Hong Kong, the highest since May 30, when shorts accounted for 14.4 percent, traders said. This is higher than the historical 8 percent average and the 10 percent average last week, suggesting the market remains vulnerable to a short squeeze. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.2 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS22> was down 0.5 percent at 0030 GMT.

Technical Analysis, August 13th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2180-1.2390	Up	1.2390	1.2180	1.2250		1.2390	1.2180
			1.2320	1.2110
USD/JPY	77.30-79.10	Down	79.70	77.90		78.50	77.30	79.10
			79.10	77.30
GBP/USD	1.5580-1.5790	Up	1.5790	1.5580	1.5650		1.5790	1.5580
			1.5720	1.5510
USD/CHF	0.9660-0.9870	Down	0.9940	0.9730		0.9800	0.9660	0.9870
			0.9870	0.9660
AUD/USD	1.0470-1.0680	Up	1.0680	1.0470	1.0540		1.0680	1.0470
			1.0610	1.0400
NIKKEI	8790-9030	Up	9030	8790	8870		9030	8790
			8950	8710
HANGSENG	19990-20350	Up	20350	19990	20110		20350	19990
			20230	19870
KOSPI	258.20-261.50	Up	261.50	258.20	259.30		261.50	258.20
			260.40	257.10
GOLD	1607.30-1632.00	Up	1632.00	1607.30	1615.50		1632.00	1607.30
			1623.80	1599.00