Fundamental Analysis, November 17th 2011

Euro falls to 5-week lows as debt crisis deepens
The euro fell to five-week lows against the dollar and yen on Wednesday as rising French and Italian borrowing costs heightened concerns about contagion in the euro zone debt crisis.
The European Central Bank's purchase of Italian and Spanish bonds brought only temporary relief. Once intervention stopped, yields resumed climbing as investors doubted how much the ECB can buy to support the bond market.
Analysts expect the euro to remain under pressure as troubles in the periphery appear to be spreading to core nations in Europe with France the latest target of investor angst as policy makers remain behind the curve in finding a solution to the region's debt problems.
"The euro/dollar is being pushed and pulled by many things in the market of late, but ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish bond markets seems to give the pair some support and comfort today," said Greg Michalowski, chief currency analyst at FXDD, a retail brokerage in New York. "Tomorrow Spain is scheduled to sell 4 billion 10 year bonds. How that auction goes will give the market a clue as to the real demand from investors."
The common currency also came under pressure after Italian bank UniCredit <CRDI.MI> said it would ask the ECB to extend its access to funding, stoking concerns about the health of euro zone banks.
"Markets are slowly losing their will to believe in an EU solution, and this is being reflected in the debt market," said Paul Bregg, a currency trader at Western Union Business Solutions in Denver, Colorado.

Wall Street falls, eyes banking contagion
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with selling accelerating late in the session on more warnings about the potential impact of the euro zone's debt crisis on the global economy and the banking system.
Worries about growth weighed on sensitive sectors like financials and materials. Losses deepened after ratings agency Fitch said even though the outlook on the U.S. banking industry is stable, it could worsen if the euro-zone's debt crisis is not resolved quickly.
Earlier, Moody's cut ratings on various German public sector banks, citing a lower likelihood of external support if it were required.
Fears are growing that the euro zone's crisis is moving to economies that had been considered more protected from the problems. The yield spread of 10-year French government bonds over their German equivalents widened to a euro-era high.
The Bank of Japan voiced concern about possible negative effects on Japan's growth from Europe's debt crisis, while England's central bank slashed its growth forecasts.
Markets sagged overnight as investors reacted to rising yields overseas. The concern is that euro-zone leaders will be unable to enact reforms to reduce debt and promote growth. The U.S. equity market's swings have become increasingly tied to gyrations in European credit markets.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> lost 190.57 points, or 1.58 percent, to 11,905.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 <.SPX> fell 20.90 points, or 1.66 percent, to 1,236.91. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> dropped 46.59 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,639.61.

Gold drops on easing U.S. prices, euro worries
Gold fell on Wednesday, pressured by easing U.S. consumer prices and uncertainty after a clash between France and Germany over whether the European Central Bank should do more to stem the region's debt crisis.
Bullion, used as an inflation hedge by investors, slipped on news that U.S. consumer prices fell in October for the first time in four months, reinforcing a view that inflation is poised to trend lower amid slow economic growth.
Also weighing on gold were European sovereign debt fears. France, which has faced rising borrowing costs as its "AAA" credit rating was at risk, appeared to plead for stronger ECB action, but Germany disagreed with that view.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery <GCZ1> settled down $7.90 at $1,774.30 an ounce.

U.S. crude ends above $102 on pipeline plan
U.S. crude futures jumped sharply on Wednesday on news of plans to reverse the Seaway crude oil pipeline next year, a move expected to help relieve an oil glut at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub.
Brent crude futures tumbled intraday and the pipeline news prompted more unwinding of Brent's premium to its U.S. counterpart.
The Seaway news overshadowed a weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed crude stocks fell, but not as much as expected, last week.
U.S. crude stocks dropped 1.06 million barrels, distillate stocks fell 2.14 million barrels and gasoline stocks rose 992,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 11, the EIA said. [EIA/S]
Ahead of the inventory report, U.S. crude stocks were expected to have fallen 1.2 million barrels, according to a Reuters survey of analysts. Gasoline stocks were estimated to have fallen 700,000 barrels and distillate inventories were expected to be down 2.1 million barrels.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude <CLZ1> rose $3.22, or 3.24 percent, to settle at $102.59 a barrel, having traded from $98.39 to $102.89.

Nikkei to slip, stick to tight range amid Europe uncertainty
The Nikkei share average is likely to slip on Thursday and stick to a tight range after U.S. stocks tumbled overnight on rising fears about contagion from Europe's debt market woes.
Bond market turmoil is spreading across Europe, with Italian 10-year bond yields rising back above 7 percent, while yields on bonds issued by France, the Netherlands and Austria -- which along with Germany form the core of the euro zone -- have also climbed.
Wall Street fell overnight, with selling accelerating late in the session after a Fitch Ratings report warned that U.S. banks have direct exposure to stressed European markets and that contagion poses a serious risk.
The dollar is threatening to fall below 77 yen, down from a high around 79.50 yen hit after Japan's intervention on Oct. 31
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Wednesday that Europe's debt crisis may trip up the global economy after a two-day policy review, where the Japanese central bank nevertheless refrained from further action. 
The benchmark Nikkei <.N225> is expected to trade in a range of 8,350 to 8,500 on Thursday, strategists said. Nikkei futures in Chicago ended at 8,390, down 60 points from their Osaka close of 8,450. <JNIc1>.
On Wednesday, the Nikkei fell 0.9 percent to 8,463.16, and the broader Topix index <.TOPX> also shed 0.9 percent to 724.11.

Seoul shares seen lower; eyes on banks, retailers
Seoul shares are seen starting lower on Thursday amid growing doubts that governments in Europe can contain the region's debt crisis, with banking stocks seen particularly weak.
France and Germany, Europe's two central powers, clashed on Wednesday over whether the European Central Bank should intervene more forcefully to halt the euro zone's accelerating debt crisis after modest bond purchases failed to calm markets.
Banking stocks such as KB Financial Group <105560.KS> may be hurt amid growing wariness about the sector and after the S&P financial sector index <.GSPF> fell 2.5 percent. 
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ended down 1.59 percent at 1,856.07 points on Wednesday, after rising to as high as 1,911.33 points.

HK shares seen weaker, banks in focus
Hong Kong stocks were expected to fall for a third-straight session on Thursday in low turnover, with banks in particular focus on growing fears of global contagion from the euro zone's lingering debt crisis.
Sectors seen more sensitive to economic growth, such as commodities-related ones, could suffer the brunt of investors' aversion to riskier assets on more warnings about the impact of the European crisis on the global economy.
HSBC Holdings Plc <0005.HK>, Europe's largest bank, could come under more pressure on Thursday, after sinking to its lowest point in about a month on Wednesday. 
On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> erased gains it made after a sharp tumble on Nov. 10, falling 2 percent to finish at 18,960.9 points, dragged by weakness in financials and property developers. 
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei <.N225> was trading down 0.6 percent at 8,416.9 points, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> was trading 0.9 percent lower at 1,838.1 points at 0055 GMT.
Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis November 17th 2011

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.3370-1.3540	Down	1.3600	1.3420		1.3480	1.3370	1.3540
			1.3540	1.3360
USD/JPY	76.30-78.00	Up	78.10	76.30	76.90		78.00	76.30
			77.50	75.70
GBP/USD	1.5630-1.5810	Down	1.5870	1.5690		1.5750	1.5630	1.5810
			1.5810	1.5630
USD/CHF	0.9100-0.9270	Up	0.9280	0.9100	0.9160		0.9270	0.9100
			0.9220	0.9040
AUD/USD	0.9990-1.0160	Down	1.0220	1.0040		1.0100	0.9990	1.0160
			1.0160	0.9980
NIKKEI	8250-8430	Down	8490	8310		8370	8250	8430
			8430	8240
HANGSENG	18550-18730	Down	18790	18610		18670	18550	18730
			18730	18540
KOSPI	237.90-239.70	Down	240.30	238.50		239.10	237.90	239.70
			239.70	237.80
GOLD	1737.40-1759.90	Up	1759.90	1737.40	1744.90		1759.90	1737.40
			1752.40	1729.90

Euro Tertahan Di Support Kuat

 Hari ini pergerakan Euro terlihat tertahan di area support kuat dimana ada peluang harga akan melakukan rebound dan bergerak ke atas. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berada dalam kondisi bullish. Pecahnya resistan 1.35174 berpotensi akan membawa euro mengambil keuntungan terhadap dollar dan bergerak menuju resistan 1.36185. Sebaliknya jika support 1.34270 ditembus maka harga cenderung akan melemah dan bergerak ke bawah menuju support terdekatnya di kisaran 1.33414.

Kepercayaan Konsumen Inggris Anjlok

Kepercayaan konsumen Inggris merosot untuk kali kelima. Angka merosot ke level terendah dalam tujuh setengah tahun pada bulan Oktober dikarenakan kecemasan mengenai pelemahan ekonomi yang terus berkembang, menurut hasil survey hari ini (17/11).

Nationwide Building Society, penyedia hipotek ketiga terbesar di Inggris mengatakan indeks kepercayaan konsumen anjlok menjadi 36 selama bulan Oktober dari 45 di bulan September. Angka terendah sejak awal bulan Mei 2004 dan di bawah rata-rata sebesar 78. Data menegaskan ekonomi Inggris memburuk dan krisis perekonomian zona Eropa kian melambatkan pemulihan. Jumlah pengangguran di Inggris berada di level tinggi 17 tahun sementara kenaikan pendapatan pekerja kurang dari setengah tingkat inflasi. Hari Rabu (16/11) Bank of England membeli obligasi pemerintah senilai GBP75 miliar setelah sebelumnya juga membeli obligasi senilai GBP200 miliar untuk menstimulasi ekonomi. BoE mengatakan bahwa prospek pertumbuhan memburuk. Menurut Nationwide hanya 3% konsumen yang beranggapan bahwa kondisi ekonomi baik sementara 76% mengatakan hal sebaliknya. Survey yang dilakukan terhadap 1,000 orang dilakukan antara 26 Spetember - 23 Oktober. 

Indeks yang merefleksikan sentimen mengenai ekonomi, pasar tenaga kerja dan pendapatan rumah tangga untuk enam bulan mendatang merosot 14 poin menjadi 48 dalam bulan Oktober. Konsumen melihat saat ini merupakan saat yang bagus untuk membeli rumah atau mobil yang nilainya juga merosot. "Pada awal bulan Oktober, Bank of England melanjutkan skema pembelian aset yang diharapkan dapat menstimulasi ekonomi beberapa bulan mendatang meski diperlukan waktu lebih lama sebelum hasilnya dapat dirasakan konsumen," menurut Robert Gardner, kepala ekonom Nationwide.

Permintaan Safe Haven Bantu Emas

 Pergerakan emas di perdagangan Asia hari ini sejajar dengan pasar ekuiti dan logam dasar. Namun logam mulia masih mendapat dorongan dari permintaan investor yang mencari nilai invetasi yang lebih aman di tengah krisis hutang zona Eropa yang masih membayangi.

Kecemasan mengenai harga yield obligasi zona Eropa yang membumbung akan mendorong harga emas dalam beberapa sesi mendatang, menurut  laporan Mitsui Global Precious Metals. Awal pekan ini, bursa mencatat permintaan emas fisik di bawah $1,770 per troy ons juga membantu menaham pelemahan harga. Spot emas di $1,761.30/ons, turun 90 sen dari level penutupan. Untuk jangka pendek, trader memperkirakan level psikologi resistance emas di kisaran $1,800/ons. Saat ini emas diperdagangkan di bawah level pada 8 November.

Emas Bentuk Symmetrical Triangle

 Pergerakan emas pada grafik 4 jam-an terlihat berpotensi membentuk formasi symmetrical triangle dimana ada peluang emas meneruskan pergerakan sebelumnya. Pecahnya upper line dan resistan 1802.75 berpotensi akan membawa emas menguat kembali terhadap dollar dengan bergerak menuju resistan berikutnya di kisaran 1829.86. Secara teknikal indikator stochastic berpotensi berada dalam kondisi bearish. Waspadai jika emas menembus lower line dan support 1756.43 maka emas cenderung akan melemah dengan bergerak menuju support 1727.82.

Emas Melorot Seiring Gejolak Krisis Utang Eropa Menular Ke Prancis

Emas turun tajam sejak sesi Asia hari Rabu terkait laporan bahwa Prancis juga dalam bahaya terkena krisis utang. Prancis yang merupakan negara ekonomi terbesar kedua di Eropa ini terkena imbas kekhawatiran para investor tercermin dari lonjakan yield obligasi Prancis bersamaan dengan indikasika pelambatan ekonomi kawasan tersebut.

Terpantau sejauh ini kontrak Emas untuk bulan Demseber diperdagangkan di level $1775.84 per troy ons, atau melemah -0.25% dibanding harga pembukaannya.

Situasi terakhir menunjukkan bahwa Emas masih mengikuti tema di market mengikuti pergerakan Euro dan bergerak terbalik terhadap dollar AS. Spanyol dan Portugal memang sudah cukup jelas terancam tertular krisis, namun kejutan yang terbaru adalah Prancis.

Katalis negatif Emas yang lain adalah rilis leading indicator OECD selama bulan September yang masih menunjukkan penurunan ekonomi di beberapa negara utama, dimana hanya AS dan Jepang yang masih bertahan diatas level trend leading indicator. CLI India yang mengalami penurunan terbesarnya, diikuti dengan zona Eropa dan Jerman. China turut melemah namun masih positif. Perubahan indikator CLI ini dapat mengukur pelambatan ekonomi di China, India dan secara keseluruhan di AS untuk 3 sampai 6 bulan mendatang. Penurunan ekonomi akan memicu penurunan inflasi yang sekaligus menjadi katalis negatif Emas.

Perdagangan emas datar, kegelisahan Euro membantu menutup kerugian

Emas diperdagangkan datar pada hari Selasa, memotong kerugian awal, dipicu oleh kekhawatiran atas perlambatan ekonomi zona euro dan kekhawatiran bahwa Perancisbisa tersedot ke dalam spiral krisis utang.

Bullion mengabaikan berita pemodal miliarder John Paulson memangkas sepertiga dari kepemilikan emas ETF pada kuartal ketiga. Analis mengatakan langkah Paulson itubukan tanda bahwa hedge fund manager akan mengabaikan pandangan optimis pada emas di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi global.

"Kami melihat membeli fisik dan safe haven sangat aktif di bawah. Meskipun kita melihattekanan dari dolar yang lebih kuat, level bawah dilihat sebagai kesempatan membeli dan tingkat dukungan kunci bertahan," kata David Meger, direktur perdagangan berjangka logam dari broker Vision Financial Markets.

Meskipun emas secara tradisional dianggap sebagai safe haven, telah semakin bergerak bersama-sama dengan aset berisiko lain karena kegugupan investor. Saham di Wall Street berbalik lebih tinggi, kurang dari 1 persen setelahawalnya dilanda kegelisahan atas krisis utang Eropa.