As Greece Flares, Treasury’s Geithner Endorses Lagarde For IMF Lead

Finance MinisterChristine Lagarde gained a key ally for her effort to be named head of the International Monetary Fund Tuesday, when the Treasury Department issued a statement from Secretary Tim Geithner supporting her candidacy.

The leadership of the IMF, traditionally held by a European, has been up for grabs since the resignation of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was arrested on allegations of sexual assault.

Lagarde is angling for the IMF job at a time when the organization is a central player in the debt crisis throughout the periphery of Europe. The Greek mess continues to play out, with violent protests erupting outside Parliament Tuesday morning on the first day of a two-day strike as lawmakers debate a controversial package of austerity measures.

France has taken a softer line on a potential Greek restructuring of late than fellow European leaders in Germany, recently proposing a plan that would see French banks roll over their debt to give Greece breathing room. The slight change of heart comes as little surprise, given the sizable exposure the banks have to Greek debt. (See “French Banks Hold $93B In Greek Debt, Sarkozy Announces Rollover Deal.”)

See Geithner’s full statement endorsing Lagarde below.

Secretary Geithner Supports Christine Lagarde For IMF Managing Director

6/28/2011 WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued the following statement from Secretary Tim Geithner.“I am pleased to announce our decision to support Christine Lagarde to head the International Monetary Fund. Minister Lagarde’s exceptional talent and broad experience will provide invaluable leadership for this indispensable institution at a critical time for the global economy. We are encouraged by the broad support she has secured among the Fund’s membership, including from the emerging economies. I also want to commend my friend, Agustin Carstens, on his strong and very credible candidacy.”

Sterling support position

pemulihan Pound dari posisi rendah kemarin di area 1.5910 nampaknya telah terhenti tepat di level psikologis 1.6000, untuk kemudian berbalik turun seiring terbebaninya GBP/USD oleh angka GDP Inggris yang lemah. Saat ini Pound ditawarkan pada kisaran 1.5950 setelah sempat menguji support di level 1.5910.

Di bawah area 1.5910/15 (low 27 Jun), pasangan mata uang ini mungkin dapat menjumpai support berikutnya di 1.5825 (low 28 Jan) dan 1.5750 (low 25 Jan). Sebaliknya, level resistensi terdekat berada di area 1.6000 (level psikologis), kemudian di 1.6045/50 (high 24 Jun) dan 1.6080/90 (low 16/17 Jun).

 

Sementara rebound GBP/JPY dari posisi rendah harian di 128.75 telah terbatasi oleh level 129.20, dan kemudian berbalik turun pasca rilis data ekonomi Inggris hingga menyentuh level rendah harian baru di 128.63.

Olli Rehn : Tidak Ada 'Plan B' Untuk Menghindari Default Yunani

Yunani harus menyetujui rencana pemerintah untuk memangkas anggaran hingga sebesar €78 milyar ($111,4) yang tercakup dalam program langkah-langkah penghematan dan penjualan aset sebagai upaya memastikan pencairan bantuan darurat yang sangat dibutuhkan agar Yunani terhindar dari default, kata anggota komisi ekonomi Uni Eropa, Olli Rehn, pada hari Selasa.

"Satu-satunya cara untuk menghindari resiko default adalah parlemen harus mendukung program reformasi ekonomi," katanya. "Program tersebut meliputi strategi fiskal jangka menengah dan program privatisasi, serta harus disetujui oleh parlemen terlebih dahulu sebelum bantuan keuangan tahap berikutnya dapat dicairkan," kata Rehn dalam sebuah pernyataan terkait pencairan bantuan senilai €12 milyar.

 

Rehn menolak berkometar ketika ditanya mengenai kemungkinan para petinggi Eropa tengah mempertimbangkan rencana cadangan dalam kasus langkah-langkah penghematan pemerintah Yunani tidak disetujui parlemen. "Untuk sebagian orang yang suka berspekulasi tentang adanya rencana cadangan, saya tegaskan jika tidak ada rencana B untuk menghindarkan Yunani dari default," katanya.

Krisis Masih Jadi Alasan Koleksi Emas

Emas menguat di sesi London akibat kekhawatiran krisis utang Yunani yang tingkatkan permintaan terhadap emas sebagai instrumen perlindungan kekayaan.Petinggi ECB, Juergen Stark, utarakan kepada harian Die Welt bahwa dia tidak yakin masyarakat internasional mau tolong Yunani jika Athena tidak menerapkan rencana penghematan-nya pada bulan Juli.

"Permintaan emas sebagai aset safe-haven akan meningkat, terutama di jangka pendek akibat ketidakpastian hasil voting Yunani," ungkap WilliamAdams, analis Basemetals.com. Perdana Menteri Yunani, George Papandreou, telah meminta parlemen untuk dukung kebijakan penghematan yang lebih drastic. Kegagalan untuk loloskan rencana penghematan dapat memicu default untuk pertama kalinya di zona-euro.

 

"Krisis Eropa belum berakhir," ungkap Kunal Shah, pimpinan riset Nirmal Bang Commodities. “Meski emas masih berpeluang jatuh hingga area 1475/70; namun sulit beri rekomendasi jual jika belum tercapai solusi permanen atas krisis utang zona-euro.”

 

Dari sisi teknikal, emas masih berada di channel bearish. 1505.35, harga tertinggi 27 Juni, akan menjadi resisten dimana penembusan akan buka peluang pengujian 1511.10, harga terendah 13 Juni. 1496.15, harga terendah hari ini, merupakan support dimana kejatuhan lewati level tersebut dapat uji 1491.00, harga terendah 27 Juni. 

Gold : Potensial Bentuk Double Bottom, Tapi Mungkin Bullish ke $1,512.35-1,517.40

Emas pada grafik 1-jam berpotensi membentuk pola double bottom dengan baseline yang juga merupakan level konfirmasi dari pola tersebut berada dikisaran 1503.50. Senada dengan hal tersebut, peluang terjadinya penguatan juga terlihat pada pergerakan CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini cenderung bergerak bullish. Jika baseline area tersebut berhasil ditembus, besar kemungkinan harga akan membidik area 1512.35 hingga 1517.40. Namun sebaliknya jika baseline tersebut mampu bertahan, waspadai pergerakan bearish yang mungkin terjadi menuju area support dikisaran 1491.00.

Wall Street

Saham Amerika Serikat (AS) membukukan rally pada hari Senin kemarin (27/06). Penurunan inflasi menjadi motor penggerak bagi harga ekuitas.

Inflasi lebih rendah di AS merupakan kabar baik bagi sektor keuangan. Mengingat sebanyak 90% perusahaan komponen bursa adalah pengguna komoditi. Banyak di antara mereka sangat berharap pada pengurangan tensi inflasi, seperti Ford, General Motors, DuPont, Dow Chemical hingga Nike dan Caterpillar. 

 

Menurut Jim Cramer, pakar keuangan dan pengamat pasar, hal tersebut menjadi titik balik penguatan bursa hari Senin. Banyak orang berpendapat bahwa penurunan harga komoditi berdampak tidak bagus terhadap portofolio besar seperti Freeport. Padahal, banyak perusahaan lain justru diuntungkan oleh harga komoditi yang lebih rendah. Anggaran korporasi bisa diperkecil sehingga estimasi pendapatan periode mendatang bisa naik. Proyeksi laba yang dibuat perusahaan beberapa waktu ke belakang mengacu pada harga komoditi yang tinggi. Jika inflasi dan komoditi tidak terlalu tinggi, maka sesungguhnya tingkat pendapatan dapat lebih baik. Oleh karena itu, harga saham otomatis meningkat. 

 

"Kondisi ini membuat kinerja perusahaan meningkat, namun belum terwujud dalam bentuk earnings karena harga komoditi masih bergejolak," ujar Cramer. Jika benar masa inflasi tinggi sudah berakhir, maka waktunya bagi korporasi untuk menikmati marjin laba yang bagus. 

Dollar sebagai 'Global Reserve'

 AS akan kehilangan statusnya sebagai mata uang global dalam 25 tahun mendatang. Demikian menurut sebuah survei antar manajer bank sentral yang secara kolektif mengelola dana lebih dari $8,000 miliar.

Lebih dari separuh total jumlah manajer yang disurvei oleh UBS memperkirakan bahwa posisi USD akan tergantikan oleh sekumpulan portofolio mata uang lain. Perubahan tersebut diperkirakan terjadi pada 25 tahun ke depan. 

Euro Analysis : Uji Sinyal di Area 1.4360 – 1.4444

berhasil rebound dan menguji area bearish trendline. Jika level tersebut pecah, terbuka peluang terjadinya penguatan lanjutan menuju area 1.4360 hingga area 1.4444. Namun waspadai kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini berada dalam area overbought dan berpotensi memicu pergerakan bearish menuju area 1.4230 hingga 1.4101 jika trendline tersebut mampu bertahan.

Sterling Analisa : Konsolidasi di 1.5936 – 1.6013

 cenderung terkonsolidasi dikisaran 1.5936 hingga 1.6013 pada sesi perdagangan kemarin. Saat ini GBPUSD terlihat menguji area resistance dikisaran 1.6013. Jika level resistance tersebut pecah, maka besar kemungkinan harga akan bergerak naik membidik area resistance selanjutnya yang juga merupakan area bearish trendline dikisaran 1.6098. Namun waspadai pecahnya level support dikisaran 1.5936 karena jika level tersebut pecah, maka terbuka peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area 1.5860.

Speculators Increase Bullish Gold, Silver Positions, Cut PGMs — CFTC Data

added to their bullish gold and silver U.S. futures and options positions, but cut exposure to the platinum group metals and copper, according to U.S. government data.

In the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s commitment of traders data released late Friday, fund-type traders built up their gold and silver net-long positions as noted in both the disaggregated and legacy reports. The data is current as of June 21, so it does not include the break in prices those markets suffered later in the week. The losses in the platinum group metals and copper inspired exiting of long positions, as seen in the data.

August gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $22 an ounce during that time, settling on June 21 at $1,546.40. Comex July silver rose 96.8 cents an ounce and settled at $36.379. Nymex July platinum slid $47.70 an ounce, settling at $1,747.20, while September palladium fell $25.50 an ounce to $809.50. Comex July copper fell 6.65 cents to $4.0885 a pound.

Managed-money traders in the disaggregated report for gold significantly increased their gross long positions, raising them by 21,709 contracts and cut their gross shorts by 972 contracts, lifting the net-long to 226,501 contracts. Producers increased gross longs and gross shorts, but added many more shorts, which increased their net-short position, while swap dealers reduced gross longs and added to gross shorts, hiking their net-short position. In the legacy report, non-commercials added 21,315 gross long contracts and added 4,379 contracts, allowing the net-long to rise to 238,788 contracts. Commercials added gross longs and gross shorts, lowering their net-short position.

Barclays Capital noted this is the highest speculative long since April, while Commerzbank said the big bump in gross longs was also the sharpest rise in positions in four and one-half months.

Managed-money accounts in silver increased their gross longs by 2,848 contracts and cut their gross shorts by 1,207 contracts, which allowed the net-long to rise to 20,296 contracts. The producers trimmed gross longs and hiked gross shorts, which raised their net-short position. Swap dealers cut both gross longs and shorts, but cut more shorts, allowing their net-short position to fall. In the legacy report, funds raised gross longs by 1,621 contracts and erased 1,289 gross short contracts, hiking the net-long to 25,735 contracts. Commercials cut exposure on both sides, lifting their net-short position.

Morgan Stanley said that the data suggest speculators are starting to re-build long positions following May’s sharp long liquidation in gold and silver.

Despite the current gains in gross long positions, Commerzbank said prices for metals could be under pressure as investors practice risk aversion.

That could lead to erasing of some of the new longs established in this report.

Speculators sliced net-long positions in the platinum group metals as they cut gross longs and added to gross shorts. Managed-money accounts are net-long 17,122 contracts in platinum and net-long 11,183 contracts in palladium. Non-commercials cut their gross long position and increased their gross short position, reducing the net-longs for both PGMs. Non-commercials are net-long 20,127 contracts in platinum and net-long 12,648 contracts in palladium.

Copper saw a decrease in the net-long for the managed-money accounts, too. Their net-long now stands at 7,481 contracts. In the legacy report, however, the non-commercials’ net-long fell to 9,778 contracts. Commercials lowered their net-shorts by adding more gross long positions than gross short positions.

“While financial investors are currently not giving any support to copper prices, there is still high price potential here in our view in case they start to increasingly bet on rising prices in the next few weeks and months,” Commerzbank said.

Gold inches up on weaker dollar, Greece bailout hopes

SINGAPORE, Spot gold edged higher onTuesday, supported by a weaker dollar as the euro 

rallied on hopes that Greece's parliament will pass an austerity plan toavoid a sovereign debt

default. 

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,500.25 an ounce, off a five-week low of $1,490.30 in the 

    previous session. Spot gold has posted losses for three straight trading days. 

 * U.S. gold GCcv1 also rose 0.3 percent to $1,501.10. 

 * A weaker dollar lent support for bullion prices, as the euro extended gains from the previous 

    session on expectations that Greece's parliament will approve a fiscal austerity package  

    needed for the country to get emergency aid. 

 * Greece's parliament began on Monday to debate the unpopular austerity plan, and is 

   expected to vote on it on Wednesday.  

 * The U.S economy continued to show signs of deceleration, as consumer spending failed to 

    rise in May, breaking 10 straight months of gains.  

 MARKET NEWS 

 * U.S. stocks rose from three days of losses on Monday, led by banks after news of more 

    favorable capital requirements and optimism over Greece's austerity plan.

 * U.S. crude oil rose above $91 a barrel on Tuesday as the euro rallied against the dollar. 

Gold slides below $1,500/oz as dollar strengthens

, Gold prices eased on Monday, briefly touching near six-week lows in early trade, as the euro suffered from concerns over the outlook for euro zone debt, and amid broad-based selling of commodities.

Spot gold was bid at $1,495.06 an ounce at 1338 GMT, against $1,499.53 late in New York on Friday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCv1 fell $4.70 an ounce to $1,496.20.

Simmering worries over this week's Greek parliamentary vote on austerity measures and its impact on a European Union bailout package are pressuring the euro lower versus the dollar. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-priced assets.

"Having discounted all the current market fundamentals, gold seems to be waiting for fresh market cues for the immediate move," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services.

"Technically charts are pointing at further weakness and this is reflected by the excessive strength portrayed by the U.S. dollar over the last couple of days," he added. "Oil under $90 a barrel could further bearishness to the market."

Gold fell as low as $1,490.90 an ounce in early trade as oil and industrial metals extended last week's hefty drop. U.S. crude oil futures fell towards $90 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it would release emergency reserves, and copper, lead and nickel prices also slipped.

Commodities have come under pressure from gains in the dollar and concerns that euro zone debt problems could cause further ructions in the currency markets.

The euro fell after Moody's said Greek banks have lost about 8 percent of their private-sector customer deposits so far this year. The ratings agency warned that those institutions would face severe cash shortage if outflows mount to 35 percent of their deposits.

A Greek minister warned on Monday of "catastrophe" if parliament blocked a 28 billion-euro ($40 billion) package of tax increases and spending cuts in a parliamentary ballot expected on Wednesday.

Germany's deputy finance minister said on Monday the euro is in danger of losing credibility.

COMMODITIES SOLD HEAVILY

Worries over sovereign risk contagion on the euro zone were a key factor pushing gold prices to record highs earlier this year, though they were not enough to prevent the precious metal being caught up in heavy selling of commodities last week.

"We do not expect the price to retreat much further," Commerzbank said in a note. "This week sees the debate and vote on the austerity measures in Greece, with ratification a condition for additional financial support. It is still uncertain whether parliament will give its approval."

Money managers raised bullish bets in COMEX gold futures and options to the highest level since the week of April 24 in the week ended June 21, as bullion climbed to within $20 of its record, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Speculators in silver futures and options also upped their net long positions, as safe-haven demand for precious metals grew in response to disappointing economic data from the United States and persistent concerns surrounding Europe's debt crisis.

Physical gold demand, especially from Asian buyers, picked up as prices fell towards multi-month lows, but this is unlikely to put the brakes on gold's correction for long, traders said.

"There has been good demand on the dips and I think that will continue, but that is not going to be enough ion its own right, if people are in liquidation mode, to reverse a downward trend," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Silver was bid at $33.63 an ounce against $34.26, reflecting losses in other industrial metals. Platinum was at $1,671.49 an ounce against $1,672.99, and palladium at $718.47 against $726.80.

Gold : Masih tetap dengan rentan bearish jika tak tembus 1511

 spot emas terpantau masih tertekan dibawah $1,500 di hari Selasa, seiring dengan Euro yang menguat terhadap dollar menjelang voting di parlemen Yunani guna membahas kebijakan pengetatan sehingga mendorong minat dan selera investor terhadap aset-aset beresiko.

Namun secara teknikal harga Emas nampak kesulitan untuk menembus ke atas resisten $1506 (Fibonacci 61.8%), padahal penembusan di atas area ini dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan momentum bullish menuju $1520 atau bahkan area $1532.

 

Sementara level support terdekat ada pada area $1494 dan $1490, break ke bawah area ini dapat memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menuju area $1485.

 

Secara keseluruhan selama harga berada di bawah area $1506, bias harga spot emas masih “bearish”.

 

 

USD mulai mendapat tekanan

Emas bergerak naik hari Selasa (28/06). Harga didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS di tengah rally euro. Optimisme bailout Yunani memperkuat nilai tukar mata uang tunggal.

Spot emas menguat 0.3% ke $1,500.25 per ons atau naik dari level rendah 5-pekan ($1,490.30) pada sesi terdahulu. Spot emas telah mencetak penurunan selama 3 hari perdagangan. Kontrak emas AS juga naik 0.3% ke $1,501.10.

China Bisa Jadi Yunani Baru

 perhatian pasar tertuju ke Yunani selama lebih dari 1 tahun terakhir. Meskipun Yunani pada akhirnya bisa mencapai solusi terbaik, bukan berarti kecemasan hutang global telah usai. Di samping Amerika Serikat (AS) negara China ditengarai sedang menghadapi masalah serupa: hutang besar!

Beberapa pengamat pasar memiliki pandangan khusus terhadap kesehatan moneter China. Jim Antos, Analis Bank Mizuho Securities Asia, mengatakan dalam skala 1 sampai 10, krisis hutang Yunani memiliki nilai 10 dan China 8. "Saya berpandangan negatif terhadap bank-bank China, khususnya soal neraca pinjaman masing-masing bank," ujar Antos kepada CNBC hari Senin (27/06). 

 

Patut diketahui bahwa volume pinjaman bank China naik dua kali lipat sejak Desember 2007 hingga Mei 2011. Antos menyebut hal yang terjadi di China sebagai 'contoh baku dari gelembung kredit'. Pertumbuhan rerata pinjaman memang sudah menyusut sebanyak 15% dalam dua tahun terakhir, namun besaran jumlah pinjaman masih mencemaskan. Angka pinjaman perbankan China tercatat sebesar $6,500 per kapita pada 2010, sementara GDP per kapita sendiri hanya $4,400. Menurut Antos, rasio tersebut adalah 'tidak aman'. 

 

"Pinjaman yang memasuki maturitas pada 2-3 tahun mendatang rawan memicu gejolak," ujar Antos. Ia meyakini bahwa rasio kredit macet di China, yang saat ini terpatok sebesar 1%, akan naik secara cepat. Beberapa analis bahkan memperkirakan angka Non-Performing Loan (NPL) bisa mencapai 10-15% hanya dalam beberapa tahun. "NPL dapat melonjak dua kali lipat dalam 3 tahun," tutupnya. Jika bukan tahun ini, maka ancaman kredit akan terbukti nyata pada tahun depan atau dua tahun lagi.

Crude Oil: masih Bearish

masih tertekan dan berada dalam bearish channel seperti yang 

terlihat pada grafik 4-jam diatas. Saat ini minyak cederung membidik 

area support dikisaran 89.69 dimana pecahnya level support 

tersebut dapat memicu terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan 

menuju area lower channel atau sekitar area support dikisaran 

88.28. Namun waspadai pergerakan rebound yang mungkin 

terjadi menuju area 91.97 hingga area upper channel jika support 

tersebut mampu bertahan. 

Gold analsys : Pemulihan Emas Uji Resistance 1506.76

Emas kembali terdepresiasi hingga menyentuh area $ 1491.00 /troy ounce

pada sesi perdaganganhari ini. Secara teknikal jika support pada 1491.00 

break, hal tersebut berpotensi memicu terjadinyapergerakan bearish lanjutan 

menuju area 1475.24. Sementara itu, kondisi indikator teknikal berupa 

CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini sudah dalam kondisi jenuh beli 

berpotensi memicu terjadinya rebound menuju area resistance dikisaran 1

506.76 jika level support tersebut mampu bertahan. 

Sterling Analysis : Tren Bearish

Secara umum masih berada dalam trend bearish dan saat ini 

tengah menguji area support dikisaran 1.5936. Pecahnya level 

support tersebut membuka peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish 

lanjutan menuju area 1.5860. Sementara itu, waspadai rebound 

yang mungkin terjadi menuju area resistance dikisaran 1.6060 .

hingga area bearish trendline jika support yang saat ini sedang diuji 

mampu bertahan. Peluang rebound juga diperkuat oleh kondisi CCI 

dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini berada dalam area oversold.

Euro Analysis

Saat ini masih cenderung bearish membidik area support dikisaran 1.4072. 

Pecahnya level support tersebut berpotensi memicu terjadinya 

pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area 1.3985.Namun sebaliknya 

kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini tengah mendekati area 

oversold memungkinkan terjadinya rebound menuju area resistance dikisaran 

1.4158 hingga 1.4256 jika support dikisaran 1.4072 mampu bertahan.

Sentimen Bearish Naungi Sterling

 telah menghabiskan 3 sesi perdagangan merosot seiring penguatan yang berpihak pada dollar AS dan Sterling kembali dalam tekanan saat dibuka minggu ini.

“Sterling telah melewati level 1.6055 dan saat ini memberikan konfirmasi kuat pergerakan wave (g) di grafik telah berakhir”, demikian komentar dari Nikolov dari Trend Recognition.

 

“Untuk pergerakan turunnya, target berikutnya adalah 1.5680 tetapi kami perkirakan kejatuhan akan menuju 1.5260 sebelum terjadinya kepulihan, Akan tetapi masih bearish”, ditambahkannya.

 

Saat ini Sterling berada di area 1.5925, 35 pips dibawah harga pembukaan. Untuk pergerakan turunnya, Valeria Bednarik, memberikan level support di 1.5920 dan 1.5870. Untuk pergerakan naiknya, level resistance berada di level 1.5990, 1.6025 dan 1.6070. 

Gold to Reach $5,000 Due to Supply Shortage

An exhaustive report by Standard Chartered predicts that gold  will more than triple to $5,000 an ounce because of a lack of supply, not just because of a surge in demand that most bullion bugs cite in their bullish calls.

“There are very few large gold mines set to commence operation in the next five years,” said Standard’s analyst Yan Chen in a report Monday. “The limited new supply comes at a time when central banks have turned from being net sellers to significant net buyers of gold. The result, in our view, will be a gold market in deficit, even assuming flat growth in demand. With the supply-demand balance so out of kilter, we see the gold price potentially going to US$5,000/oz.”

The London-based firm is among the first to focus on the supply-side of the gold equation amid the many bullish forecasts out there on the metal. After analyzing 345 gold mines and 30 copper/base metal gold mines around the globe, the team estimates annual gold production will be just 3.6 percent over the next five years.

“They make a pretty compelling argument, especially when it comes to mine supply,” said Brian Kelly, head of Brian Kelly Capital and a ‘Fast Money’ trader. “Most analysis focuses on demand from China and India, which of course can disappear as quickly as it materialized.”

But that’s unlikely to happen over the next five years as central banks look to further diversify their holdings of U.S. dollars and as emerging countries buy more gold in the aftermath of the global paper currency crisis.

“Currently, only 1.8 percent of China’s foreign exchange reserves is in gold,” wrote Chen and the Standard team in the 68-page report. “If the country were to bring this proportion in line with the global average of 11 percent, it would have to buy 6,000 more tonnes of gold, equivalent to more than 2 years of gold production.”

The bold call is among the most bullish out there. In a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch survey of global money managers released Tuesday, just about a third of money managers felt gold was overvalued. However, that is the highest reading in that survey in more than a year.

Standard Chartered recommends that clients buy shares of smaller gold miners to get the most upside from its prediction but also said clients could buy physical gold and gold exchange-traded funds.

Gold flat; focus on Greek debt crisis

 27 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded flat on
Monday after staging its worst week since early May with a 2.5
percent slide, as investors continued to watch Greece's
sovereign debt crisis ahead of a key parliament vote later in
the week. 

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold was little changed at $1,499.99 an ounce
by 0042 GMT, after falling 3 percent in the past two sessions. 

 * U.S. gold GCcv1 was flat at $1,500.90. 

 * Greece's parliament begins on Monday to debate a deeply
unpopular austerity plan which international lenders are
demanding to see approved this week to avert the threat of
bankruptcy. 

 * Money managers raised bullish bets in COMEX gold to the
highest level since the week of April 24 last week, before
prices tumbled about $60 in three sessions, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed Friday.
  

 * Spot silver fell to $33.88, its lowest in more than
a month, before regaining some lost ground to $34.06. 

 * U.S. silver SIcv1 fell 1.6 percent to $34.10. 

 * For the top stories on metals and other news, click
 , or  

 MARKET NEWS 

 * Wall Street dropped for a third day on Friday on worries
about the Italian banking sector and Greece's debt crisis, but
the S&P 500 managed to hold its 200-day moving average in a sign
buyers still see value.

 * The dollar index rose to its highest since June 16
on Monday while the euro languished, as investors await a
decision by Greece's parliament on passage of austerity
measures.  

 DATA/EVENTS 
 1030  EZ        ECB's Stark delivers speech
 1230  U.S.      Personal income mm           May   
 1230  U.S.      Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index, May
 1430  U.S.      Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing index, June
 

 PRICES 
 Precious metals prices 0042 GMT
 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg  Volume
 Spot Gold        1499.99    0.44   +0.03      5.67
 Spot Silver        34.06   -0.20   -0.58     10.37
 Spot Platinum    1677.49    4.50   +0.27     -5.09
 Spot Palladium    724.72   -2.08   -0.29     -9.35
 TOCOM Gold       3903.00  -43.00   -1.09      4.67      45449
 TOCOM Platinum   4417.00  -59.00   -1.32     -5.94       8404
 TOCOM Silver       88.60   -2.60   -2.85      9.38        562
 TOCOM Palladium  1892.00  -59.00   -3.02     -9.78        179
 COMEX GOLD AUG1  1500.90    0.00   +0.00      5.59       3985
 COMEX SILVER JUL1  34.10   -0.54   -1.55     10.21       2299
 Euro/Dollar       1.4116
 Dollar/Yen         80.75
 TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
 COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months
 

Gold Settles Near $1,500 as Dollar Rises

Gold slumped for a second day Friday to conclude its worst week in eight, crashing through key technical supports, as investors shed riskier assets and bought the dollar on heightened concerns over Greek debt.

With less than a week until the end of the Federal Reserve's second quantitative easing program, bullion's three percent fall over the past two days has raised questions about whether its years-long boom has stalled. After reaching a high of $1,575.79 on May 2, gold has struggled.

Spot prices ended the week below their 50-day moving average for the first time since February, they ruptured a trendline support stemming back to a January low, and they broke out of a six-week sideways pattern to the downside.

All of those technical chart patterns were seen as warning signs by many investors.

"Once the 50-day average is broken on a weekly basis, it a first sign of weakness and that the trend may be changing," said Adam Sarhan at Sarhan Capital.

Spot gold [XAU=  Loading...      ()   ] was last bid around $1,501 an ounce having earlier fallen to a month low at $1,498.16. It was down about 2.5 percent for the week.

U.S. August gold futures [GCCV1  Loading...      ()   ] settled down $19.60, a 1.30 percent drop, at $1,500.90. It set a $1,498.50 and $1,526.50 range. Volume above 170,000 lots was about 20 percent below its 30-day average, but up from weak volume in recent sessions.

The dollar gained almost 1 percent for the week versus the euro on worries that Greece's parliament will not approve a package of austerity measures next week. The U.S. currency also strengthened after the Federal Reserve, earlier this week, offered no hope for additional monetary support.

"Gold's decline has to do with the strength of the dollar, and since the equity market is resuming its decline, that's what's working counter to gold prices at the moment," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at broker-dealer Janney Montgomery Scott, which manages $54 billion in assets.

Silver [XAG=  Loading...      ()   ] was down 2 percent at $34.55 an ounce, lifting the gold/silver ratio — the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold — to near a one-month high at 43.5. The ratio's increase highlights gold's outperformance relative to silver.

Technical Weakness

Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose, said, gold's pullback could have more room to the downside, with next major support in area of May's lows between $1,488 and $1,471 a ton.

"The dollar could rally up to its 200-day moving average, and that will not help gold advance right now," he said. Worries about Greece defaulting on its massive debt, a development that would roil markets if the country's parliament does not approve austerity measures and concerns over some Italian banks dragged global stock markets sharply lower for a second day.

"You have prices of crude oil, commodities and the stock market again under pressure. And, you have a strong dollar. To think that gold is going to rally, it's just not going to happen," said independent investor Dennis Gartman.

"Every market that has the term 'risk' associated with it, everybody wants out," he said.

With the second round of Fed quantitative easing (QE2) ending in June, some investors question whether risk assets could rise further. Gold has thrived on the expectation of an extended period of low U.S. interest rates, and that placed non-yielding bullion in a better position to compete for investor cash against stocks or bonds.

Among platinum group metals, platinum was last down 0.8 percent at $1,680.24 an ounce, while palladium was down 1.8 percent at $729.25.

Analisa Pekan ini

USD/JPY

Pasangan mata uang ini terpantau kuat pada kisaran 80.00 pekan lalu. Pergerakan terjebak dalam range sempit.  Saya melihat tidak akan ada gebrakan berarti sampai terjadi perubahan fundamental dari otoritas moneter Jepang. Investor menjauhi transaksi akibat cemas dengan intervensi tiba-tiba dari bank sentral. Resisten atas tetap di area 82.00.

EUR/USD

Euro bergerak sideways dengan penguatan kecil meski Uni Eropa meloloskan bailout Yunani. Saya perkirakan EUR/USD konsolidasi pekan ini antara 1.4050-1.4450 sampai traders meyakini adanya breakout tren baru. Saya sarankan traders untuk bertransaksi dari titik paling ekstrim, dengan memakai level-level yang Kami sebutkan tadi sebagai kontrol resiko.

GBP/USD

Poundsterling bersiap anjlok lebih dalam jika tren penurunan memecah 1.5930 pekan ini. Bila tidak, tren kemungkinan berbalik jadi koreksi kecil ke kisaran 1.6100, di tengah pelemahan jangka panjang. Seandainya menembus support 1.5930, GBP/USD bisa membidik area 1.5750, sebelum short-covering terlihat.

GOLD

Harga emas mengalami koreksi dalam hingga ke bawah $1500 sebelum akhir pekan di tengah aksi jual global. Pekan ini, Saya memprediksi minat beli di kisaran 1480.00 seandainya tren terus melemah. Efek domino dari aksi jual rawan berlanjut untuk 1-3 hari ke depan, sebelum akhirnya hargarebound. Resisten terletak di level 1525.00.

CRUDE OIL

Minyak mentah WTI mencoba pulih ke atas 95.00 di tengah pekan. Namun akhirnya anjlok lagi karena laporan persediaan dirilis naik. Dari sisi teknikal, Saya melihat minyak cukup terdukung di level saat ini (sekitar 89.50) dan siap pulih ke 94.00 dalam satu pekan mendatang. Tetapi keberlanjutan aksi jual di awal pekan dapat memicu penurunan harga dan mengincar siklus rendah di area 83.50. Long traders tidak boleh bersikukuh menahan posisi merugi karena minyak rentan anjlok di tengah ketidakpastian!

Emas Menguat

Emas bergerak naik di perdagangan elektronik hari Senin, seiring investor kembali membeli logam mulia walau terjadi aksi jual di komoditi lainnya.

Kontrak emas untuk bulan Agustus bertambah $3.50 atau 0.2% ke level $1,504.40 per ons di divisi COMEX, bagian dari NYMEX selama sesi perdagangan Asia.

 

Perak justru melemah, dengan kontrak perak yang turun 55 sen atau 1.6% ke $34.09 per ons.

 

Emas terkena aksi jual bersama komoditi lainnya minggu lalu setelah IEA mengatakan akan merilis persediaan minyak mentah ke pasar guna menutup kekosongan produksi dari Libya.

Bank Sentral Cina Longgarkan Likuditas

 Repo pemerintah Cina naik menjadi 8.8% pada 22 Juni. Pada hari yang sama, bank sentral juga mengumumkan keputusannya guna menunda penerbitan obligasi, dalam sebuah penawaran untuk menambah likuiditas kedalam pasar setelah tindakan lanjutkan oleh para pembuat kebijakan telah menyebabkan bank-bank komerisl mengalami tekanan hutang.

Hal menjadi penanda ke 3 tahun ini bahwa bank sentral menunda penerbitan obligasi. Sebaliknya, hanya sekali pemerintah melakukan tindakan serupa pada 2007 dan 2008.

 

Keputusan pemerintah untuk melonggarkan kendali likuiditas terjadi setelah terjadinya beberapa kebijakan pengetatan moneter.

USD Bebani Emas

USD dan kekhawatiran negara zona Eropa mengenai kemungkinan penurunan peringkat pada 16  bank Italia oleh Moody menyeret pelemahan emas dan perak.

Harga emas merosot di tengah banyaknya penjualan yang dilakukan trader untuk menambah uang tunai dan meminimalisir kerugian. Spot emas di 1,499.80/ons, turun $2.50 dari sesi penutupan. EUR/USD di 1.4113 dari 1.4192 sebelumnya, namun di atas level rendah di 1.4101. Spot perak di $34.09/ons, turun 23 sen dari sesi penutupan sebelumnya.

Gold di level low

 jatuh pada sesi perdagangan AS untuk kedua harinya secara berturut (24/6). Janji para pemimpin Uni Eropa untuk menstabilkan kondisi perekonomian berhasil kurangi permintaan safe heaven emas.

Para pemimpin Uni Eropa berjanji untuk mencegah default Yunani selama Perdana Menteri George Papandreou berupaya mendorong pemulihan ekonomi melalui paket pemotongan anggaran minggu depan. 

 

Emas juga tertekan oleh penguatan dollar. "Penguatan dollar biasanya negatif untuk emas," kata Peter Fertig, pemilik Kuantitatif Komoditi Research Ltd di Hainburg, Jerman. 

 

Emas untuk pengiriman Agustus turun $ 4.9 atau 0.3 persen ke $1515.60 per troy ons di Comex pada jam 09.51 waktu New York. Saat ini emas diperdagangan di $1508.25 mendekati harga terendahnya hari ini pada 1506.30 

Iklim Bisnis Jerman Pulihkan Euro

 pulih di sesi London, jauhi level rendah harian 1.4196, setelah data tunjukan membaiknya iklim bisnis Jerman. Ifo iklim bisnis meningkat ke level 114.5, lebih tinggi dari prediksi 113.6, dan publikasi sebelumnya 114.2. Meski, investor masih cemaskan kapan pemberian bailout berikutnya untuk Yunani, namun pimpinan Uni Eropa telah berjanji berikan bantuan jika parlemen loloskan kebijakan pemangkasan fiskal pada voting 28 Juni mendatang.
Dari sisi teknikal, euro terperangkap di dalam pola triangle, yang mungkin akan batasi pergerakan mata uang tunggal Eropa tersebut hingga menembus salah satu batas triangle. 1.4344, harga tertinggi 20 Mei, akan menjadi resisten yang jika dilewati dapat buka peluang pengujian 1.4383, level Fibonacci 50% dari kejatuhan 7 Juni hingga 16 Juni. 1.4220, level Fibonacci 23.6%, akan menjadi support, dimana kejatuhan lebih lanjut akan uji 1.4161, level Fibonacci 23.6%.

Emas Jatuh Terkait Meredanya Ketakutan Inflasi

 keok searah dengan pelemahan komoditi minyak mentah paska dilepasnya stok cadangan strategis AS dan ditambah ekspektasi investor atas lemahnya inflasi ditengah pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat.

 

Penguatan dollar, terhadap Euro juga menjadi katalis negatif bagi Emas. Terpantau kontrak Emas untuk pengantaran bulan Agustus diperdagangkan di level 1,518.30 atau turun -0.17%.

 

Pasar komoditi cukup stabil sejauh ini setelah melemah tajam dan berpotensi terjadi bargain hunting karena masih banyak ketidakpastian mengenai Yunani. Meskipun market mendapat kelegaan dari deal EU-IMF untuk program fiskal terbaru Yunani, namun kucuran dana bailout kedua masih harus menunggu hasil voting parlemen Eropa untuk program kenaikan pajak.

 

Berdasarkan studi teknikal, harga Emas masih dalam fase konsolidasi di kisaran 1515 – 1548. Bias intraday masih netral dan dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten di salah satu range tersebut untuk mendapatkan arah yang lebih clear. Anjlok dibawah area 1515 dapat memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut mengincar 1505 di jangka pendek.

Dampak Krisis Eropa terhadap Inggris

 hutang Eropa telah berdampak luas pada stabilitas perekonomian Inggris. Sistem keuangan negara Ratu Elizabeth tersebut harus dibangun melalui bank dengan modal besar dan usaha yang sungguh-sungguh, demikian kata pejabat Bank of England (BOE) (24/6).

Pejabat BOE  menilai bahwa sektor perbankan di beberapa negara zona Eropa rentan terhadap ancaman yang paling langsung terhadap perekonomian Inggris. 

 

Pada kesempatan yang sama Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB), Jean Claude Trichet mengatakan, "Pekan ini adalah ancaman yang paling serius terhadap stabilitas keuangan negara-negara Uni Eropa."

 

Pekan kemarin Pemimpin Bank of England (BOE), Mervyn King telah bertemu dengan Perdana Menteri Inggris (David Cameron) untuk membahas peraturan perbankan demi mencegah krisis keuangan lebih lanjut.