Selasa, 05 Juni 2012

Fundamental Analysis, June 5th, 2012

Gold falls after data-inspired rally; Europe in focus

Gold fell on Monday as bullion investors cashed in some of the previous session's sharp gains to cover losses in U.S. equities, which came under pressure from signs of a U.S. economic slowdown and Europe's debt crisis.  

The metal, which rallied 4.3 percent on Friday, took a hit from renewed selling on Wall Street as financial markets focused on Tuesday's emergency talks among Group of Seven finance chiefs to discuss the euro zone's woes.

Bullion broke its trend of trading in sync with riskier assets last week with a 3.5 percent rise, after Friday's surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls report stoked talk that further stimulus measures may be necessary to reignite growth. But the metal has so far this year failed to draw sustained safe-haven bids despite the turmoil in Europe and signs of economic slowdown in the United States and China.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was down 0.7 percent at $1,614.89 an ounce by 2:21 p.m. EDT (1821 GMT).  U.S. COMEX gold futures for August delivery <GCQ2> settled down $8.20 at $1,613.90 an ounce, with volume sharply below its 30-day average and the previous session's turnover.

Euro rises as investors pare bearish bets on euro zone hopes

The euro rebounded from last week's record lows against the dollar and yen on Monday as investors pared bearish bets on hopes that European authorities will seek greater fiscal integration within the euro zone. The euro, which was ripe for a bounce given a recent record high in net speculative short positioning, was buoyed by news that France and the European Commission signaled their support for an ambitious plan to use the euro zone's permanent bailout fund to rescue the bloc's stricken banks.

In a sign of heightened global alarm about strains within the 17-member euro currency area, finance chiefs of the Group of Seven leading industrialized powers will hold emergency talks on the euro zone debt crisis on Tuesday. While European officials are trying to reassure investors they can contain an escalating crisis, many market participants remain bearish on the single currency and believe the euro's strength should prove temporary, especially if yields on Spanish and Italian bonds hover near unsustainable levels. 

The euro last traded 0.5 percent higher at $1.2498 <EUR=>, up from $1.2286 on Friday - its lowest since July 2010. Monday's peak of $1.2509 was a four-day high.
Against the yen, the euro <EURJPY=> traded up 0.9 percent at 97.86 yen, well above Friday's 11-1/2-year low of 95.57 yen, according to Reuters data.

S&P 500 ends flat but Europe, U.S. worries weigh

The S&P 500 ended flat on Monday after recent sharp losses, though worries about the European debt crisis and weaker U.S. data kept investors wary of equities. Signs of economic weakness around the globe and Europe's intensifying debt crisis have rattled investors, who have been dumping riskier investments like commodities and equities for the safety of government bonds.  

The flat session follows Friday's slide of more than 2 percent that erased the Dow industrial average's gains for the year. The S&P 500 is now up just 1.6 percent for 2012 and is approaching correction territory, which would be a decline of at least 10 percent from its most recent high in April. On Monday, U.S. data showed orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.6 percent in April, its third decline in four months and confounding expectations calling for a 0.2 percent gain.

In a potential boost to markets looking for measures to end the debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressing for much more ambitious measures, including a central authority to manage euro-area finances and major new powers for the European Commission, European Parliament and European Court of Justice. The S&P financial sector <.GSPF>, seen as most exposed to Europe's debt crisis, was down 1 percent. The S&P's economically sensitive industrial sector <.GSPI> was also down 1 percent, leading the day's declines. 

The Nasdaq ended higher, helped by gains in Amazon <AMZN.O>, up 3.1 percent at $214.57.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slipped 17.11 points, or 0.14 percent, to 12,101.46 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> inched up just 0.14 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to 1,278.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 12.53 points, or 0.46 percent, to close at 2,760.01.

US crude ends higher on euro, bargain hunting

U.S. crude futures rebounded on Monday after four days of losses and last week's slide of 8.4 percent, as the euro rallied on hopes that European authorities can contain the euro zone debt crisis.  
Bargain hunting also encouraged some buyers to step back in, after the recent sell-off had dragged prices to near eight-month lows and, according to a technical indicator, put the market in a sharply oversold condition. 
 
Ahead of weekly inventory reports, domestic crude stockpiles were forecast to have fallen by 900,000 barrels in the week to June 1. That would snap 10 straight weeks of builds in government stocks data, with analysts citing lower imports.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for July delivery <CLN2> settled at $83.98 a barrel, gaining 75 cents, or 0.9 percent. It earlier dropped to a session low of $81.21, the lowest since Oct. 6. In London, ICE Brent crude for July delivery <LCON2> settled at $98.85 a barrel, rising 42 cents, or 0.43 percent. It dropped early to a session trough of $95.63, its lowest since Jan. 26, 2011.

Nikkei set to rebound ahead of emergency G7 talks

Japanese shares are expected to rebound on Tuesday after the Topix <.TOPX> index plumbed a near 30-year low the session before, with investors looking to cut bearish bets ahead of emergency talks by the Group of Seven leading indistrialized powers.  

The Nikkei share average <.N225> is likely to trade between 8,300 and 8,400 after shedding 1.7 percent to a six-month closing low at 8,295.63 on Monday, strategists said. The broader Topix fell 1.9 percent to 695.51 on Monday, its lowest in more than 28 years. Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,335 on Monday, up 0.5 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,290.
  
"The Nikkei is at a critical level. Its November low of 8,134 is extremely important," said Eiji Kinouchi, chief technical analyst at Daiwa Securities. "I think that support level will likely hold. It's interesting to see what the G7 will discuss ahead of the ECB (European Central Bank) meeting tomorrow. They may put pressure on the ECB to do something and such expectations will help support stocks."     

The emergency talks by the G7 finance chiefs on Tuesday come as alarm is intensifying over strains in the 17-nation European currency area. The benchmark Nikkei has fallen 19.1 percent since hitting a one-year peak on March 27 on concerns over the deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing global growth.

Seoul shares seen rangebound, eyes on G7 meeting

Seoul shares are seen rangebound on Monday as investors look to emergency talks by the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations, and technical support cushions a beaten-down market hovering just above its annual low. "The corrections on (Monday) were a little too exaggerated so the pace of decline may brake significantly today, although another poor data showing from the United States could pressure the market," said Lee Eun-taek, an analyst at Dongbu Securities.  

Adding more fuel to worries about an uncertain global growth outlook, U.S. data released on Monday showed orders for manufactured goods fell in April, missing expectations for a rise. Battered investor confidence could receive a much needed boost when the chiefs of the G7 countries meet to discuss the euro zone debt crisis on Tuesday amidst heightened global alarm about strains in the single currency bloc. 

    The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 2.8 percent to close at 1,783.13 points on Monday. South Korea's financial markets will be closed on Wednesday for a public holiday.

Hong Kong stocks set to rise 1 percent at open

Battered Hong Kong shares are set to open firmer on Tuesday, partly on short-covering ahead of emergency G7 talks on the euro zone debt crisis, though investors remain reluctant to take on fresh positions amid an increasingly gloomy global outlook. The Hang Seng index <.HSI> was set to open up just over 1 percent at 18,373.22. The China Enterprises index <.HSCE> of top locally listed mainland firms was indicated to open up 0.8 percent.

Technical Analysis, June 5th , 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2380-1.2590
Up
1.2520
1.2380
1.2450

1.2590
1.2380
1.2590
1.2310
USD/JPY
77.60-79.40
Up
78.80
77.60
78.20

79.40
77.60
79.40
77.00
GBP/USD
1.5310-1.5480
Up
1.5410
1.5310
1.5340

1.5480
1.5310
1.5480
1.5240
USD/CHF
0.9510-0.9720
Down
0.9720
0.9580

0.9650
0.9510
0.9720
0.9790
0.9510
AUD/USD
0.9610-0.9820
Up
0.9750
0.9610
0.9680

0.9820
0.9610
0.9820
0.9540
NIKKEI
8220-8460
Up
8380
8220
8300

8460
8220
8460
8140
HANGSENG
17760-18120
Up
18000
17760
17880

18120
17760
18120
17640
KOSPI
235.00-238.30
Up
237.20
235.00
236.10

238.30
235.00
238.30
233.90
GOLD
1603.70-1628.50
Down
1628.50
1611.90

1620.20
1603.70
1628.50
1636.70
1603.70

Senin, 04 Juni 2012

Technical Analysis, June 4th , 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2315-1.2495
Up
1.2495
1.2315
1.2375

1.2495
1.2315
1.2435
1.2255
USD/JPY
77.30-78.80
Down
79.30
77.80

78.30
77.30
78.80
78.80
77.30
GBP/USD
1.5280-1.5460
Up
1.5460
1.5280
1.5340

1.5460
1.5280
1.5400
1.5220
USD/CHF
0.9590-0.9770
Down
0.9830
0.9650

0.9710
0.9590
0.9770
0.9770
0.9590
AUD/USD
0.9590-0.9770
Up
0.9770
0.9590
0.9650

0.9770
0.9590
0.9710
0.9530
NIKKEI
8250-8430
Down
8490
8310

8370
8250
8430
8430
8250
HANGSENG
18380-18560
Down
18620
18440

18500
18380
18560
18560
18380
KOSPI
243.00-244.80
Down
245.40
243.60

244.20
243.00
244.80
244.80
243.00
GOLD
1609.00-1633.00
Down
1641.00
1617.00

1625.00
1609.00
1633.00
1633.00
1609.00

Kamis, 31 Mei 2012

Fundamental Reports

Emas rally pada akhir sesi dimana ekuitas, komoditas jatuh

Emas mengadakan pemulihan pertengahan sesi dramatis dalam perdagangan berat pada hari Rabu, rebound lebih dari $ 30 per ons setelah sebelumnya terjunr bersama dengan aset berisiko, kemudian melompat sebagai safe haven membeli kembali setelah melambung secara teknis di atas level support kunci $ 1.530 per ounce.

Beberapa trader menyarankan bahwa bullion, yang telah diperdagangkan dengan aset berisiko seperti ekuitas untuk sebagian besar tahun ini, mungkin telah menemukan a safe-haven lagi. Mereka mencatat bahwa rebound datang pada hari ketika ekuitas, minyak mentah dan komoditas lainnya jatuh, sementara dolar dan obligasi AS rally pada meningkat kekhawatiran tentang krisis utang zona euro.
"Pembalikan Pagi ini adalah indikasi bahwa orang-orang mulai datang untuk mengatasi dengan fakta bahwa tidak ada solusi cepat dan mudah di Eropa Dan jika hal mulai benar-benar keluar dari Spanyol dan Italia, yang berarti emas bisa menjadi pilihan, "kata James Dailey, manajer portofolio dari Aset Manajemen TIM Keuangan.

Sentimen investor bullion tetap plin-plan karena harga emas telah kehilangan $ 100 dalam empat minggu terakhir. Merupakan penurunan 6 persen pada Mei, terbesar penurunan bulanan sejak Desember. Rebound pada hari Rabu membawa emas kembali ke sekitar di mana ia berdiri pada akhir 2011.

Minyak jatuh ke 7 bulan terendah di US Stockpile Glut

Minyak jatuh ke posisi terendah tujuh bulan pada spekulasi bahwa stok minyak mentah AS naik ke level tertinggi sejak 1990 dan karena euro melemah akibat kekhawatiran bahwa krisis utang akan membanjiri Spanyol. New York berjangka turun 3,2 persen dan minyak Brent diperdagangkan di London menetap di bawah $ 104 per barel untuk pertama kalinya tahun ini. Sebuah laporan Departemen Energi besok akan menunjukkan bahwa persediaan AS naik 1 juta barel menjadi 383.500.000 pekan lalu, menurut analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg. Euro jatuh terhadap dolar sebagai risiko default Spanyol meningkat.

Minyak untuk pengiriman Juli turun $ 2,94 ke $ 87,82 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange, penyelesaian terendah sejak 21 Oktober. Harga telah turun 16 persen bulan ini, menuju penurunan terbesar sejak Desember 2008.

Harga menyentuh terendah dalam tujuh bulan intraday dari $ 87,27 per barel setelah pemukiman. Mereka sedikit berubah dari tingkat setelah American Petroleum Institute, sebuah kelompok industri yang berbasis di Washington, mengatakan persediaan minyak AS turun 353.000 barel menjadi 385.900.000 pekan lalu. Berjangka Juli turun $ 3,37 atau 3,7 persen ke $ 87,39 dalam perdagangan elektronik di 16:52

Minyak Brent untuk pengiriman Juli menurun $ 3,21, atau 3 persen, untuk mengakhiri sesi di $ 103,47 per barel di London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Ini adalah penutupan terendah sejak 16 Desember.

Menteri Perminyakan Arab Saudi Ali al-Naimi mengatakan pada 13 Mei di Adelaide, Australia, bahwa ia ingin melihat Minyak mentah Brent turun kontrak sampai $ 100 per barel.

Euro jatuh 1 persen terhadap dolar AS mendekati 2-tahun terendah

Euro melemah 1 persen terhadap dolar AS pada Rabu, merosot mendekati ke posisi terendah dua tahun dipicu krisis utang negara Eropa dan kekhawatiran sektor perbankan melemahkan tekad investor 'dan mendorong mereka untuk menjual mata uang euro zona umum.

Dolar AS mencapai tertinggi 15-bulan terhadap Swiss franc sementara sterling turun sekitar 1 persen terhadap greenback. Investor juga membeli yen Jepang sebagai safe haven.

Sebuah penjualan obligasi di Italia, Rabu menyebabkan biaya melonjak untuk pemerintah. Roma dipaksa untuk membayar hasil yang lebih dari 6 persen pada utang 10 tahun untuk pertama kalinya sejak Januari Setara Spanyol mendekati level 7 persen berbahaya yang memaksa Irlandia dan Yunani untuk mencari dana talangan.

Potensi keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro, skenario bahwa para pejabat sedang mempersiapkan dukungan untuk sementara masih tetap menjadi bagian dari serikat mata uang, telah menetapkan lingkungan umumnya bergairah di Eropa.

Aset manajer dan ahli strategi mengatakan fokus di Eropa adalah terlalu banyak penghematan, berarti pembuat kebijakan mengatasi gejala jangka pendek seperti utang yang tidak berkelanjutan dan bukan akar penyebab seperti mempromosikan pertumbuhan jangka panjang. Uang riil dan investor institusi meningkatkan penjualan pada tanda-tanda krisis utang blok itu menyebar ke ekonomi yang lebih besar Euro <EUR=>, jatuh serendah $ 1,2360 menurut data Reuters, terendah sejak 1 Juli 2010. Hal terakhir pada $ 1,2374, turun 0,98 persen pada hari itu. Support sekarang terletak sekitar $ 1,2150, angka terendah pernah tercapai pada Juni 2010, dan kemudian terendah 2010adalah $ 1,1875.

Euro menggelar the short-lived bounce setelah Komisi Eropa mengatakan zona euro harus bergerak ke arah persatuan perbankan dan mempertimbangkan Eurobonds dan rekapitalisasi langsung dari bank dari dana bailout tetapnya.

Technical Analysis, May 31th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2280-1.2460
Down
1.2520
1.2340

1.2400
1.2280
1.2460
1.2460
1.2280
USD/JPY
78.50-80.00
Up
80.00
78.50
79.00

80.00
78.50
79.50
78.00
GBP/USD
1.5380-1.5560
Down
1.5620
1.5440

1.5500
1.5380
1.5560
1.5560
1.5380
USD/CHF
0.9620-0.9800
Up
0.9800
0.9690
0.9680

0.9800
0.9620
0.9740
0.9560
AUD/USD
0.9610-0.9790
Down
0.9850
0.9670

0.9730
0.9610
0.9790
0.9790
0.9610
NIKKEI
8430-8610
Down
8670
8490

8550
8430
8610
8610
8430
HANGSENG
18680-18860
Down
18920
18740

18800
18680
18860
18860
18680
KOSPI
242.80-244.60
Down
245.20
243.40

244.00
242.80
244.60
244.60
242.80
GOLD
1554.50-1578.50
Down
158650.00
1562.50

1570.50
1554.50
1578.50
1578.50
1554.50