Technical Analysis, August 8th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2280-1.2490	Up	1.2490	1.2280	1.2350		1.2490	1.2280
			1.2420	1.2210
USD/JPY	77.80-79.60	Up	79.60	77.80	78.40		79.60	77.80
			79.00	77.20
GBP/USD	1.5510-1.5720	Up	1.5720	1.5510	1.5580		1.5720	1.5510
			1.5650	1.5440
USD/CHF	0.9590-0.9800	Down	0.9870	0.9660		0.9730	0.9590	0.9800
			0.9800	0.9590
AUD/USD	1.0460-1.0670	Up	1.0670	1.0460	1.0530		1.0670	1.0460
			1.0600	1.0390
NIKKEI	8800-9040	Up	9040	8800	8880		9040	8800
			8960	8720
HANGSENG	19820-20180	Up	20180	19820	19940		20180	19820
			20060	19700
KOSPI	248.70-252.00	Up	252.00	248.70	249.80		252.00	248.70
			250.90	247.60
GOLD	1600.50-1625.20	Up	1625.20	1600.50	1608.70		1625.20	1600.50
			1616.90	1592.30

Aussie Lewati Level Resistance

Secara umum, bias intraday untuk AUD/USD masih bullish. Harga tengah menguji resistance di 1.0591 seiring indikasi jenuh beli yang diperlihatkan oleh stochastic dan CCI 1 jam. Preferensi hari adalah bullish terutama jika resistance tersebut pecah, dengan sasaran hingga kisaran 1.0628 – 1.0669.

Selain itu, waspadai kemungkinan koreksi hingga ke area support di kisaran 1.0532 – 1.0495. Bias intraday masih akan tetap bullish selama area support tersebut bertahan. Dengan demikian, perhatikan apabila ada sinyal/pola bullish yang muncul di kisaran tersebut karena sinyal/pola tersebut bisa dijadikan referensi bagi posisi beli.

Waspadalah jika support di 1.0495 tembus, karena hal tersebut akan mengubah bias intraday menjadi bearish dengan sasaran hingga ke kisaran 1.0473 – 1.0436. Jika itu terjadi, skenario bearish yang disebutkan di atas kemungkinan besar tidak akan valid lagi.

Produksi Manufaktur Inggris Turun

Berlarutnya resesi ekonomi Inggris telah mengurangi aktivitas dunia usaha di bulan Juli. Produksi manufaktur dan industri masing-masing turun sebesar 2,9% dan 2,5% lebih buruk dari publikasi Juni yang meningkat 1,2% dan 1%. Meski demikian, ini masih lebih baik dari estimasi analis yang memperkirakan penurunan produksi manufaktur sebesar 4% dan produksi industri sebanyak 3,3%. Sterling terlihat mencoba mempertahankan penguatan setelah data dirilis. GBP/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.5624, tidak begitu jauh dari level tinggi harian 1.5631

Euro Unjuk Performa Harapkan Stimulus

Memasuki sesi perdagangan Eropa (Selasa, 07/08), mata uang tunggal Euro terus menunjukkan performanya bahkan kembali mencatat level tinggi $1.2432 yang merupakan level terbaiknya dalam 9 bulan terakhir.

Rally Euro terutama lantaran para investor terus menaruh harap bahwa pihak Eropa akan mengambil langkah selanjutnya guna menanggulangi krisis utang bersama-sama dengan Amerika Serikat serta China yang juga akan mengadopsi langkah stimulus dalam mendukung pemulihan.

Secara umum terkait rally Euro yang tajam baru-baru ini, menyebabkan sejumlah indikator tehnikal juga turut mengalami perubahan tren. Setelah mengalami penguatan cukup tajam, secara teknikal hal itu membuat indikator Stochastic dan MACD harian ikut bermanuver bullish.

Sehingga dengan kondisi demikian, peluang rally untuk Euro nampak akan berlanjut setidaknya berpotensi ke resisten 1.2445 kemudian 1.2470, atau bahkan mencapai 1.2500. Sedangkan bila terjadi koreksi, Euro kemungkinan akan melemah ke level-level tahanan yang terbentuk dari proyeksi retracement Fibonacci berdurasi 1 jam, yang ditarik dari titik terendah 2 Agustus pada 1.2133 hingga tertinggi 1.2445.Sehingga dari proyeksi tersebut di dapat beberapa tahanan support seperti 1.2370 (Fibo 23.6%) kemudian 1.2325 (Fibo 38.2%) dan tahanan support ke III pada 1.2290 (Fibo 50%).

Italia Masih Terpuruk di Jurang Resesi

Berlarutnya Krisis hutang zona-eropa membuat Italia masih terpuruk di dalam jurang resesi. GDP masih catatkan kontraksi 0,7% di kuartal kedua setelah alami penurunan 0,8% di kuartal sebelumnya. Meski demikian, ini masih lebih baik dari prediksi analis yang memperkirakan kontraksi ekonomi sebesar 0,6%. Euro tidak banyak berubah setelah data dirilis. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.2410, tidak begitu jauh dari level tinggi harian 1.2432

Italia Masih Terpuruk di Jurang Resesi

Berlarutnya Krisis hutang zona-eropa membuat Italia masih terpuruk di dalam jurang resesi. GDP masih catatkan kontraksi 0,7% di kuartal kedua setelah alami penurunan 0,8% di kuartal sebelumnya. Meski demikian, ini masih lebih baik dari prediksi analis yang memperkirakan kontraksi ekonomi sebesar 0,6%. Euro tidak banyak berubah setelah data dirilis. EUR/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.2410, tidak begitu jauh dari level tinggi harian 1.2432

Optimisme Masih Naungi Pasar Dunia

Memasuki hari ke dua pekan ini (Selasa, 07/08) pasar dunia masih nampak bertengger kokoh di kisaran positif lantaran para pelaku pasar masih diliputi sikap optimis pasca rilis data ekonomi Amerika yang jauh lebih baik dari ekspektasi. Sehingga data tersebut mampu meredakan kekhawatiran pasar terhadap masalah perlambatan ekonomi global. Selain itu investor juga terus menaruh harap bahwa Eropa akan mengambil langkah selanjutnya guna menangani krisis utangnya bersama dengan Amerika serta China yang akan mengadopsi langkah stimulus demi mendorong pertumbuhan.

Intinya pesimisme investor terhadap situasi zona Euro nampak mulai berkurang. Dan muncul sebuah harapan bahwa sesuatu yang positif akan dilakukan pihak ECB, sehingga sampai saat ini investor masih nampak memburu aset-aset beresiko.Hari ini para investor juga tengah menantikan hasil meeting bank sentral Australia dimana kali ini pasar tidak memperkirakan bakal ada kebijakan pelonggaran moneter terkait data-data ekonomi lokal yang masih terbilang membaik.

Bullish Euro Masih Terlihat

Melihat dari indikator stochastic dn MACD, jelas terlihat mata uang euro masih memiliki peluang untuk menguat. Level resistance 1.2445 akan menjadi level resistance kuat berikutnya. Jika euro berhasil menembus level 1.2500 maka target selanjutnya di kisaran 1.2520. 

Saat ini euro di 1.2395 dengan level support di 1.2280, 1.2250 dan 1.2135 sementara level resistance di 1.2445, 1.2520, 1.2550. 

UBS: Sekarang Outlook Fed Stabil

Menurut UBS, ketakutan akan QE tidak mungkin memberatkan dolar dalam menuju ke Q3."Ketika langkah ECB kedepannya tidak diketahui, dampak marjinal dari ukuran kuantitatif pada kinerja euro hanya dapat meningkat, tetapi kami percaya bahwa Fed akan terus menghindar dari penyamaan dari rekan-rekan mereka di Frankfurt," kata UBS.

UBS melanjutkan: "Kami tidak mengesampingkan kemungkinan beberapa langkah-langkah tambahan untuk diperkenalkannya FOMC di bulan September, meskipun bentuknya mungkin akan menyerupai skema FLS Bank of England daripada mereka beralih pada pembelian aset konvensional."

Bergerak Sempit, Emas Siap Uji Level Resistance

Emas terjebak di range sempit, harga emas bergerak keluar masuk wilayah positif. Pekan ini harga emas berpeluang untuk menguji level resistance di $1,630/ons," menurut laporan MKS Finance. Pelaku pasar memilih untuk mengambil keuntungan dari stagnasi pergerakan harga emas untuk menyimpan posisi lebih lama (sebagian juga dikarenakan menjelang peluncuran QE di akhir musim panas)," tambahnya. Harga emas di $1,610.30/ons, turun $1.30 dari level penutupan.

Fundamental Analysis, August 7th, 2012

Hong Kong shares to hold steady; StanChart in focus

Hong Kong shares are likely to start marginally weaker to flat on Tuesday as investors hope for further global stimulus measures, with attention on local earnings and Standard Chartered Plc after a row over dealings with Iran.
    

New York's top bank regulator said Standard Chartered was a "rogue institution" that hid $250 billion in transactions tied to Iran, and threatened to strip its New York banking licence.  Companies expected to post corporate earnings later in the day include MSM China, i-CABLE Communications and Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering.
    

Chinese property developers could come into focus after China Vanke Co Ltd, mainland China's largest property developer by sales, reported a 25.1 percent rise in first-half net profits on Monday. But profit margins narrowed for the housebuilder as it cut prices to win business during a market slowdown.

Seoul shares seen in range; this week's Chinese data eyed

Seoul shares are expected to tread in a tight range on Tuesday after hitting a seven-week closing high in the previous session, as investors await a string of economic data from China due later this week. Chinese data ranging from trade and bank loans to investments will be closely watched a s investors seek to gauge the health of the world's second-largest economy.

Stocks may be overheating as they rapidly approach the 1,900-point territory, but with the economic recovery in the U.S. and China and action by global central banks looking to slowly gain traction, the outlook for the long term looks good," said Hanyang Securities in a note to its clients.

Nikkei seen consolidating near resistance at 25-day MA

The Nikkei share average is expected to consolidate on Tuesday after a solid rally and ahead of this week's Bank of Japan policy meeting and a slew of economic data from China, Japan's largest export market.The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,700 and 8,800, strategists said, after rising 2 percent to 8,726.29 on Monday. 

Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,740 on Monday, up 0.1 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,730."This week we will have the BOJ meeting which will end on Thursday. There are a lot of statistics from China on Thursday. The market is cautious," said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Inc. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary policy steady at its two-day meeting, but may escalate its warnings over slowing global demand and renewed gains in the yen, signalling its readiness to ease again if the economy's recovery comes under threat. Hiroki said the Nikkei was likely to face resistance at its 25-day moving average of 8,742.03.

Gold up, volume thin on uncertainty over cenbanks

Gold rose on Monday on gains in U.S. equities and crude oil, but daily volume looked set to be one of this year's lowest, reflecting bullion investors' fickle sentiment toward further monetary easing by central banks. The metal extended gains from last Friday, when data showing a rising U.S. unemployment rate fed investor hopes for more aggressive stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Short-covering also helped prices to rebound from last week's weekly drop.

Trading volume in U.S. gold futures, however, was poised to finish at less than half its 30-day average, as some investors questioned whether central banks would come through with more gold-supportive monetary action.  Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.6 percent at $1,612.56 an ounce by 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery <GCZ2> settled up $6.90 an ounce at $1,616.20. Volume was at around 77,000 lots by 3 p.m., versus its 30-day average of about 169,000 lots, preliminary Reuters data showed. A combination of gains in crude oil futures, the euro and U.S. equities also lifted gold prices.

Wall St closes at 3-month high on hopes for Europe

U.S. stocks closed at three-month highs for the second day in a row on Monday, extending last week's rally on the hope for more assistance for the troubled euro zone. The S&P 500 rose to its highest point since early May, but pared its gains going into the close. The benchmark index also failed to breach 1,400, a level that could spur further buying if convincingly broken. The S&P 500 hasn't closed above the 1,400 level since May 2.

Sentiment in Spanish and Italian bond markets - the forefront of the three-year debt crisis - improved, with two-year Spanish yields falling to 3.42 percent on Monday, less than half of a late July high of over 7 percent. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said the ECB may buy short-dated bonds to lower borrowing costs to help Europe, which has been mired in a debt disaster. European shares closed at four-month highs.

Wall Street rallied on Friday with the S&P 500 marking its fourth straight week of gains on a strong U.S. jobs report and renewed hope that European authorities would act to contain the euro zone's debt crisis through ECB purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 21.34 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,117.51 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 3.24 points, or 0.23 percent, to 1,394.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> advanced 22.01 points, or 0.74 percent, to end at 2,989.91.

Euro extends prior session's gains on ECB optimism

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday, extending the previous session's gains on hopes the European Central Bank will take action to lower borrowing costs for Spain and Italy. With little news to drive markets, investors continued to focus on comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last week, when he said the bank will draw up plans for bond buying in the coming weeks. Gains in the equity market sparked by Friday's data showing surprisingly strong U.S. jobs growth in July also boosted the euro, prompting investors to pare hefty bets against the currency.

The euro <EUR=> last traded 0.1 percent higher at $1.2400, below a one-month peak of $1.2443 hit in Asian trade. Gains in the euro over the last two sessions totaled nearly 2 percent, its best two-day showing since late October. Near-term resistance for the euro was seen around $1.2478, the 61.8 percent retracement of its drop from a mid-June peak to a two-year low of $1.2042 touched in late July. The common currency was down 0.2 percent against the yen at 96.99 <EURJPY=>, having earlier risen to 97.79 yen, its strongest since mid-July. The euro was also slightly lower against the Swiss franc <EURCHF=> and 0.3 percent weaker against the Norwegian crown <EURNOK=>.

Oil Rises With U.S. Equities as Germany Backs ECB Plan

Oil advanced to a two-week high as U.S. stocks gained and as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan, adding to optimism that the region’s debt crisis will ease. Prices climbed 0.9 percent after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to a three-month high amid better-than-forecast earnings. The euro strengthened against the dollar after Merkel’s deputy spokesman, Georg Streiter, said the government backed the ECB’s plan to help bring down borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

Oil for September delivery increased 80 cents to $92.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since July 19. Prices have climbed 19 percent since June 28, when they closed at the 2012 low of $77.69. Brent crude for September increased 61 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $109.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, August 7th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2280-1.2490	Up	1.2490	1.2280	1.2350		1.2490	1.2280
			1.2420	1.2210
USD/JPY	77.20-79.00	Down	79.60	77.80		78.40	77.20	79.00
			79.00	77.20
GBP/USD	1.5490-1.5700	Up	1.5700	1.5630	1.5560		1.5700	1.5490
			1.5630	1.5700
USD/CHF	0.9590-0.9800	Down	0.9870	0.9660		0.9730	0.9590	0.9800
			0.9800	0.9590
AUD/USD	1.0460-1.0670	Up	1.0670	1.0460	1.0530		1.0670	1.0460
			1.0600	1.0390
NIKKEI	8650-8890	Up	8890	8650	8730		8890	8650
			8810	8570
HANGSENG	19800-20160	Up	20160	19800	19920		20160	19800
			20040	19680
KOSPI	249.40-252.70	Up	252.70	249.40	250.50		252.70	249.40
			251.60	248.30
GOLD	1599.80-1624.50	Up	1624.50	1599.80	1608.00		1624.50	1599.80
			1616.30	1591.50