Technical Analysis, June 14th , 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2460-1.2670	Down	1.2670	1.2530		1.2600	1.2460	1.2670
			1.2740	1.2460
USD/JPY	78.60-80.40	Up	79.80	78.60	79.20		80.40	78.60
			80.40	78.00
GBP/USD	1.5400-1.5610	Down	1.5610	1.5470		1.5540	1.5400	1.5610
			1.5680	1.5400
USD/CHF	0.9460-0.9670	Up	0.9600	0.9460	0.9530		0.9670	0.9460
			0.9670	0.9390
AUD/USD	0.9830-1.0040	Down	1.0040	0.9900		0.9970	0.9830	1.0040
			1.0110	0.9830
NIKKEI	8420-8660	Up	8580	8420	8500		8660	8420
			8660	8340
HANGSENG	18700-19060	Up	18940	18700	18820		19060	18700
			19060	18580
KOSPI	244.80-248.10	Down	248.10	245.90		247.00	244.80	248.10
			249.20	244.80
GOLD	1603.60-1628.30	Up	1620.10	1603.60	1611.80		1628.30	1603.60
			1628.30	1595.30

Rakyat Spanyol Mungkin Akan Sesali Bailout

Perbankan Spanyol memang sudah selamat sekarang, tapi tidak demikian hal nya dengan rakyat Spanyol, karena level sovereign debt mereka telah meningkat namun tidak diimbangi dengan kemampuan Spanyol untuk membayar.

Melihat reaksi market pada event bailout Spanyol di akhir pekan dimana Spanyol mendapatkan janji manis Uni Eropa atas dana penyelamatan 100 milyar Euro, diatas permukaan paket tersebut seperti air segar di tengah padang gurun, dimana perbankan Spanyol mendapatkan uang yang dibutuhkan untuk mengcover kerugian mortgage namun bagi pemerintah Spanyol meminta bailout sama saja mengalami nasib pengetatan anggaran yang sama seperti kandidat bailout Irlandia, Portugal dan Yunani.

Oleh sebab itulah, yield obligasi tenor 10-tahun hanya turun 13 basis point untuk kemudian merangkak naik lagi diatas 6.07%, sementara mata uang Euro hanya naik sedikit sekali terkait berita bailout tersebut karena level rasio hutang negara terhadap GDP yang terbebani oleh bailout tersebut kini berpotensi naik 10% lebih tinggi jika seluruh dana bailout tersebut digunakan.

Target rasio utang 82% terhadap GDP di 2013 mungkin akan melonjak menjadi 95% dari GDP di 2015, dengan ekonomi semakin merosot 2% tahun ini, kecuali yield obligasi Spanyol bisa menurun signifikan, namun kemungkinan penurunan yield masih kecil karena ketegangan market seiring ketidakpastian sumber dana bailout Spanyol.

Kesepakatan Spanyol ini tentu semakin jadi alasan kuat bagi Yunani untuk menolak persyaratan bailout Uni Eropa, dan meningkatkan peluang hasil pemilu Yunani untuk menghasilkan partai mayoritas yang anti bailout dan pada akhirnya Yunani akan meninggalkan Euro.

Kondisi Yunani sendiri memang mengenaskan, sebut saja Rumah Sakit Henry Dunant, yang merupakan salah pusat perawatan medis terbaik di Yunani, dimana 1,150 karyawan nya termasuk dokter belum mendapatkan gaji selama 2012, sejauh ini karyawan rumah sakit tersebut hanya menerima gaji 2011 per Mei 2012 kemarin.

Rumah Sakit Henry Dunant hanya merupakan salah satu institusi Yunani yang tidak mampu membayar gaji, sementara berbagai bisnis sudah saling tidak membayar satu salam lain di Yunani, pemerintah tidak mampu membayar supplier, inilah kondisi riil di Yunani saat ini. Maka cukup wajar sebenarnya, jika pemimpin Sosialis Yunani Alexis Tsipras melihat segala problem ini dan hanya melihat strategi bailout dan persyaratannya yang terlampau berat bukan merupakan solusi bagi problem Yunani.

Apa dampak nya untuk mata uang Euro? Tentunya akan terjadi pelemahan yang signifikan akibat arus capital outflow maupun rush para investor keluar dari perbankan Eropa, perlahan mata uang EURUSD akan meraih level 1.2415, anjlok dan closing daily dibawah area tersebut berpotensi menambah tekanan bearish lebih lanjut mengincar area 1.2290 – 1.2210. Resisten terdekat tampak di area 1.2625 – 1.2670.

Emas Siap Tapaki Level Rendah

Pergerakan emas kembali tertekan di awal perdagangan pasar Asia. Logam mulia mencoba level support di kisaran $1,587.50/ons, jelas analis ANZ. "Emas berpeluang menguji target rendah di $1,580/ons.

Komentar dari pimpinan Bank sentral Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, yang merupakan anggota Federal Open Market Committee tampaknya akan membebani sentimen pasar. Ia mengatakan bahwa ia tidak terlalu yakin bahwa kondisi saat ini membutuhkan tindakan tambahan. Sementara untuk perak, ANZ mengatakan bahwa perak gagal menembus level di atas $30/ons, hal ini menegaskan bias pelemahan lebih terlihat. Jika perak menyentuh level $27.90/ons, harga berpotensi untuk bergerak ke $26.93/ons, Harga emas di $1,594.20/ons turun $1.90, dan perak di $28.54/ons, turun 4 sen dari level penutupan.

Fundamental Analysis, June 12th, 2012

Euro falls on debt worries over Spain's bank rescue

The euro sank against the dollar and yen on Monday as a brief spate of euphoria over Spain's bank bailout deal gave way to worry that the country is being saddled with even more debt, heightened by a wary mood days ahead of Greek elections.  The euro zone agreement reached over the weekend to lend Spain, the region's fourth-largest economy, up to 100 billion euros to help prevent a run on its banks had initially spurred optimism. The euro <EUR=> had jumped more than 1 percent against the dollar to hit its highest level since May 23. 

But gains were erased during the New York session as the deal's obligations came under the microscope. With the loans potentially lifting Spain's debt by as much as 100 billion euros and possibly ranking ahead of regular government debt in the queue for repayment, Spain's already high borrowing costs could rise further.  "What the bailout deal has done is burden Spain's government with additional debt which the country is not in a position to handle," said David Pierce, director for business development at GPS Capital Markets in Salt Lake City, Utah. The firm advises corporate clients on managing currency exposure. 

 

"I think Spain may have to increase the amount that it has to pay on its bonds," he said. EU and German officials said Spain faces supervision by international lenders, contradicting Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, who insisted the cash came without such strings. Investors fear that if the euro zone's future permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, is used for the rescue, they will be subordinate to official creditors and face losses in any debt restructuring.

Spain bailout rally brief as Wall St slides

 U.S. stocks fell on Monday as Europe's aid package for Spanish banks did little to alleviate investor concerns about the euro zone's finances and a slowdown in the wider global economy. The equity market bounced in early trading, but the rally was quickly snuffed out by sellers and a sharp decline accelerated into the market's close.  Spanish bond yields rose as a bailout of up to $125 billion  for the country's struggling banks failed to quell concerns that Madrid may be locked out of funding markets and forced to seek external help.  

 

"They're borrowing more money, not doing anything about growth," Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management in New York, said. "Today we're not worried about Spain's banking system falling off a cliff, but other than that, nothing has changed. "This is a realization that Spain, while providing money for its banks, is going to add to its debt-to-GDP ratio, and it's going to potentially subordinate some of the current Spanish sovereign debt, which doesn't make those bondholders happy," said Zemsky.  The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 142.97 points, or 1.14 percent, to 12,411.23. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 16.73 points, or 1.26 percent, to 1,308.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 48.69 points, or 1.70 percent, to 2,809.73.

Gold up but off highs as Spanish aid disappoints

Gold prices eked out small gains in choppy trade on Monday as safe-haven buying kicked in and a relief rally in other financial markets faded when investor enthusiasm about a European bailout for Spain's banks dried up.Investors sought refuge in bullion as deepening worry about saddling Spain with further debt of up to $125 billion knocked the euro off three-week highs and sent equities into retreat.  

Gold veered away from its recent correlation with assets perceived as more risky. The euro <EUR=>, S&P 500 index <.SPX> and crude oil <LCOc1> all finished near session lows on the lingering European debt fears. The market was still vulnerable though. Disappointment about the small size of the bailout had left many investors unconvinced that Europe was committed to roll out more monetary stimulus to fix the crisis and sent gold briefly into negative territory to an intraday low around $1,583, traders said. 

 

 U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled up $5.40 an ounce at $1,596.80, Prices were volatile with volume sharply lower than usual at about half of its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Crude ends lower, hits new 2012 low as rally fades

U.S. crude futures were lower for a third straight session on Monday, and set a new 2012 low in late trading, as an early rally on EU's rescue of Spanish banks faded amid investors raising questions about the aid package and focused on other troubled euro zone nations like Greece. Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia called for an increase in OPEC's output target, despite falling oil prices, further adding to bearish sentiment in the oil markets.  The euro fell against the U.S. dollar and equities ended lower on disappointment over the Spanish aid package, to keep oil futures under pressure. 

Also bearish for crude was news that an outage at a new crude distillation unit at Motiva Enterprises' 600,000 barrels per day refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, -- the nation's largest -- would be offline for at least two months and potentially five months, for repairs, sources familiar with operations said. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude <CLN2> settled <CLN2> settled at $82.70 a barrel, down $1.40, or 1.66 percent, after trading between $82.58 and $86.64.

Nikkei set to fall, Spain rally short-lived

Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to dip on Tuesday after a brief rally greeting news of a Spanish bank bailout sputtered out overnight, as the deal failed to overcome nervousness about the future of the euro zone. Investors were temporarily cheered on Monday after euro zone finance ministers agreed to loan Spain $125 billion to recapitalize its troubled banks, but the relief was outweighed on U.S. markets by caution ahead of a Greek election on Sunday. Market players said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 8,400 and 8,550 on Tuesday after closing at 8,624.90 on Monday as investors welcomed the bailout.  

 

Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,465, down 1.7 percent from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 8,610.  Exporters may be out of favour as the yen strengthened overnight, The Nikkei managed to snap nine straight weeks of losses last week, its worst run in 20 years, after the broader Topix <.TOPX> hit a 28-year low. The Nikkei has fallen 15.9 percent from its one-year high of 10,255.15 on March 27, on fears of a deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing growth in the U.S. and China.

Seoul shares set to fall on worries over Spain deal

Seoul shares are seen retreating on Tuesday from a 4-week closing high after the optimism about a euro-zone deal for Spanish banks proved short-lived as investors fretted over the details of the bailout plan. Adding to the gloom, a Greek election on Sunday could put Athens on a path to leaving the euro currency bloc. Cyprus, deeply exposed to Greece, hinted on Monday that it may become the fifth member of the 17-nation euro area to apply for an international bailout.

 

"Investors are fearful of the added public debt pressure on Spain if loans are tapped from the European Stability Mechanism, which must be repaid in full over its debt obligation to private bondholders," said Choi Chang-ho, an analyst Shinhan Investment & Securities.  The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 1.7 percent to close at 1,867.04 points on Monday.   

Technical Analysis, June 12nd , 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2390-1.2560	Down	1.2620	1.2440		1.2500	1.2390	1.2560
			1.2560	1.2380
USD/JPY	78.50-80.20	Down	80.80	79.00		79.60	78.50	80.20
			80.20	78.40
GBP/USD	1.5390-1.5570	Down	1.5630	1.5450		1.5510	1.5390	1.5570
			1.5570	1.5390
USD/CHF	0.9540-0.9710	Up	0.9720	0.9540	0.9600		0.9710	0.9540
			0.9660	0.9480
AUD/USD	0.9780-0.9950	Down	1.0010	0.9830		0.9890	0.9780	0.9950
			0.9950	0.9770
NIKKEI	8330-8510	Down	8570	8390		8450	8330	8510
			8510	8320
HANGSENG	18690-18870	Down	18930	18750		18810	18690	18870
			18870	18680
KOSPI	248.30-250.10	Down	250.70	248.90		249.50	248.30	250.10
			250.10	248.20
GOLD	1599.20-1621.70	Down	1629.20	1606.70		1614.20	1599.20	1621.70
			1621.70	1599.20