Fed's Bernanke Coba Tangguhkan Dollar

Dollar menguat setelah Bernanke tidak mengucapkan magic word "QE III" di awal pidatonya. Meskipun Fed's Bernanke berikan outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi yang suram akibat masalah utang Eropa dan jurang fiskal AS; namun trader sepertinya lebih tertarik dengan seberapa cepat Federal Reserve akan luncurkan Quantitative Easing III. Dengan Fed's Bernanke yang enggan ucapkan QE III maka pasar sepertinya harus menunggu lebih lama untuk mendapatkan stimulus moneter tambahan dari bank sentral AS. Indeks Dollar kini diperdagangkan 83.26, jauhi level rendah harian 82.91 "Aktivitas ekonomi berkurang di semester pertama 2012 seiring melambatnya aktivitas manufaktur, belanja modal, dan belanja konsumen. Masalah utang Eropa, dan jurang fiskal AS merupakan ancaman bagi pemulihan ekonomi. Gejolak Eropa telah meningkat sejak awal tahun 2012 dan kami terus meningkatkan komunikasi dengan mitra Eropa. Jika Kongres dapat membereskan masalah fiskal lebih awal maka ini dapat membantu mengingat ketidak-pastian atas jurang fiskal cukup melukai kepercayaan dunia usaha," ujar pimpinan Fed, Ben S. Bernanke di awal pidatonya di depan kongres AS.

Fundamental Analysis, July 17th, 2012

Dollar pressured on rising speculation of US easing

The dollar fell to a one-month low against the yen o n Monday after poor June U.S. retail sales data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve may launch another round of quantitative easing to boost a slowing economy.

The euro was also on the defensive against most currencies, hitting a 3-1/2-year low against sterling and a six-week trough versus the yen as investors fretted about the delay in mobilizing bailout funds for troubled euro zone states. 

The common currency did reverse early losses against the dollar in the aftermath of the weak U.S. retail sales number, but investors cautioned it was not the start of a strong uptrend. Instead, investors have temporarily shifted their focus to the U.S. economy from euro zone debt concerns after Monday's weak U.S. numbers and ahead of testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on monetary policy this week.

U.S. retail sales fell 0.5 percent last month, though economists had expected a gain of 0.2 percent. Ex-autos, sales dropped 0.4 percent. In late afternoon New York trading, the dollar slid 0.4 percent against the yen <JPY=> to 78.82 yen, adding to losses after the soft U.S. retail sales data. The greenback fell as low as 78.67 yen, its weakest level since mid-June.

In late afternoon New York trade, the euro <EUR=> rose 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.2277, with a peak of $1.2290. It earlier fell as low as $1.2173, not far from a two-year low hit last week. The euro also slid against sterling <EURGBP=>, to its lowest since late 2008, but was last at 78.50 pence, down 0.1 percent. The euro also dropped to 96.14 yen <EURJPY=>, its lowest since June 1, but last traded at 96.79 yen, down 0.2 percent.

S&P down for seventh day in eight

A surprise decline in June retail sales was the latest worrying sign from the economy, pushing stocks slightly lower on Monday, but Citigroup's earnings limited losses. The S&P 500 has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions, pressured by concerns about economic growth. Still, in a sign of resilience, the index is up roughly 7 percent from a low hit early in June despite the worsening economic data.  

Trading volume at 4.95 billion shares on the NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq was the second lightest day this year, according to preliminary data from Reuters. The drop in retail sales in June, the third consecutive monthly decline, contrasted with economists' expectations for a small increase and was the latest sign the recovery is flagging.

Citigroup's earnings, which exceeded estimates, followed JPMorgan Chase's <JPM.N> estimate-beating earnings on Friday, which sparked a rally and broke a six-day streak of losses by the Dow industrials. Shares of Citigroup <C.N> gained around 0.6 percent to $26.81. Although the third largest U.S. bank by assets reported stronger-than-expected earnings, its profit fell 12 percent due to losses from credit crisis-era assets.

Many companies have warned on profits in recent weeks. Negative to positive earnings guidance for the second quarter is 3.3 to 1, the worst since 2008, Thomson Reuters data showed. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 49.88 points, or 0.39 percent, to 12,727.21. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 3.14 points, or 0.23 percent, to 1,353.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 11.53 points, or 0.40 percent, to 2,896.94.

Gold edges up as dollar drops, all eyes on Bernanke

Gold edged up in quiet trading on Monday as weak U.S. retail sales cut into the dollar's gains ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony which will provide the latest clue on U.S. monetary policies. Bullion recovered from early losses as the dollar fell on data showing U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in June. as demand broadly slumped. Gold also was helped by the International Monetary Fund on Monday cutting its global growth forecast.

The rally in grains due to a severe drought in U.S. Midwest and crude oil's gains after news a U.S. Navy vessel fired on a small boat in the Middle East added to gold's investment appeal. Trading volume was light as investors await Bernanke's two days of testimony before Congress on Tuesday. A weak June payrolls report and other signs the U.S. economy is slowing have increased speculation the U.S. central bank will use monetary policies to boost growth.

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.2 percent at $1,592.69 an ounce by 2:09 p.m. EDT (1809 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures for August delivery <GCQ2> settled down 40 cents at $1,591.60 an ounce. Trading volume was around 30 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Caps Longest Gain Since April on N.Y. Manufacturing

Oil capped the longest winning streak since April as manufacturing in the New York region expanded in July at a faster pace than anticipated. Futures climbed 1.5 percent as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index, the Empire State Index, increased to 7.4 from 2.3 in June. Crude gained as U.S. equities reduced losses and the dollar fell against the euro.

Oil for August delivery rose $1.33 to settle at $88.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The four-day advance is the longest since a six-day streak ended April 27. Prices have fallen 11 percent this year.
Brent crude for August settlement increased $1.15, or 1.1 percent, to end the session at $103.55 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The August futures expired today. The more-active September contract jumped $1.95, or 1.9 percent, to $103.37.

The gain in the Empire State Index topped the median forecast of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which called for an increase to 4.0 for July. Readings greater than zero for the index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut, signal expansion.

Nikkei seen under pressure after yen strengthens

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to come under pressure on Tuesday as the yen's gains against the dollar during a market holiday the previous day raise concerns over exporters. A surprise decline in U.S. June retail sales provided the latest evidence of a slowing U.S. economy, boosting speculation of stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve and undermining the dollar. That lifted the yen to a one-month high of 78.688 per dollar <JPY=> on Monday.Japanese markets were closed on Monday for a national holiday.

On Friday, the Nikkei crept up 0.1 percent to 8,724.12, snapping a six-day losing streak after Chinese growth data matched expectations, slightly easing fears about the state of the global economy. Still, many investors are cautious, expecting companies to downgrade their earnings guidance in coming weeks due to the slowdown in the world economy.

Seoul shares seen on holding pattern, eyes on Bernanke

Seoul shares are seen meandering in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors wait on the sidelines for further hints of policy easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Congress on the state of the economy beginning later on Tuesday, with investors hoping to see a clearer picture of the Fed's monetary policy stance.

U.S. retail sales fell 0.5 percent in June, the third straight month of decline, a sign that the economic recovery is flagging and feeding hopes that the Fed will be prompted to undertake more stimulus action. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 0.27 percent to close at 1,817.79 points on Monday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, exporters under pressure

Hong Kong shares are set to start lower on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street losses on weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales, with exporters names likely to be on the defensive. U.S. retail sales fell in June for a third straight month of declines, the longest run of declines since 2008 when the country was mired in recession, with drops seen across a broad range of industries. Sentiment may also be hurt after China said combined profits for state-owned firms fell 11.6 percent in the first-half from a year earlier.

Turnover in Hong Kong could mark a fresh 2012 low recorded on Monday, as investors await U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony later in the day that could provide fresh clues of more stimulus from the Fed.    

On Monday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed up 0.2 percent at 19,121.3. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong closed down 0.2 percent at 9,218.8. Short selling accounted for 9.5 percent of total turnover on Monday, the lowest in a week but still above the 8 percent historical average.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, July 17th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2160-1.2370	Up	1.2300	1.2160	1.2230		1.2370	1.2160
			1.2370	1.2090
USD/JPY	77.90-79.70	Down	79.70	78.50		79.10	77.90	79.70
			80.30	77.90
GBP/USD	1.5520-1.5730	Up	1.5660	1.5520	1.5590		1.5730	1.5520
			1.5730	1.5450
USD/CHF	0.9680-0.9890	Down	0.9890	0.9750		0.9820	0.9680	0.9890
			0.9960	0.9680
AUD/USD	1.0130-1.0340	Up	1.0270	1.0130	1.0200		1.0340	1.0130
			1.0340	1.0060
NIKKEI	8600-8810	Down	8810	8670		8740	8600	8810
			8880	8600
HANGSENG	18910-19270	Up	19150	18910	19030		19270	18910
			19270	18790
KOSPI	237.00-240.30	Up	239.20	237.00	238.10		240.30	237.00
			240.30	235.90
GOLD	1577.40-1602.10	Up	1593.90	1577.40	1585.60		1602.10	1577.40
			1602.10	1569.10