Jumat, 06 Juli 2012

Fundamental Analysis, July 6th, 2012

Euro slips across the board after ECB cuts rates

The euro slumped broadly on Thursday, hitting a one-month low against the dollar after the European Central Bank cut its main interest rate to a record low and reduced its deposit rate to zero to help tackle the euro zone debt crisis.
Analysts said although the market had been positioned for a 25-basis-point-cut in the ECB'S main refinancing rate, the cut in the deposit rate - effectively encouraging banks to lend funds to each other overnight - caught some by surprise.
That view was reinforced after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at a press conference after the rate announcement that the ECB sees a weakening of growth for the euro zone and that downside risks to growth are materializing.
But Draghi said the ECB's bond-buying program and other such crisis measures are strictly temporary, resisting pressures to reactivate the plan to ease funding costs for countries mired in the euro zone debt crisis. [ECB RATES/BONDS]
The euro <EUR=> was last down 1.07 percent against the dollar at $1.2388, after falling as low as $1.2362.   Against the yen, the euro was 1 percent lower at 98.98 yen <EURJPY=>.
The dollar posted a two-week high against the yen after U.S. employment data showed signs of hope for the labor market. The dollar was last up 0.06 percent at 79.88 yen <JPY=>.  
Earlier in the session the euro briefly jumped after the Chinese central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rates in the latest attempt to protect the world's second-largest economy from signs of slowing growth.
But the main focus remained the ECB. Many market players said the rate cut would not tackle structural problems within the euro zone, and the single currency could come under further selling pressure.
The dollar also climbed to a one-month high against the Swiss franc <CHF=> and was last up 1.03 percent at 0.9690.

Wall St rally ends, caution before jobs report

U.S. stocks edged down on Thursday as economic stimulus measures by major central banks failed to excite investors before a U.S. jobs report expected to show tepid growth.   
After the S&P 500 index's strongest three-day run this year, investors stepped back, leaving the broad index and the Dow modestly lower and the Nasdaq essentially flat.
Trading volume was light after the July 4th U.S. market holiday and before the government's June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
The data is expected to show Europe's debt crisis is weighing heavily on the U.S. economy. Analysts expect the economy added 90,000 jobs last month, a level that won't make much of a dent in the grim unemployment situation.
Financial stocks weighed on Wall Street, with Dow component JPMorgan Chase <JPM.N> falling 4.2 percent to $34.38 and Bank of America Corp <BAC.N> off 3 percent at $7.82. 
The S&P Financial index <.GSPF> and the KBW Banks index <.BKX> fell about 1.5 percent. Financial shares have often taken the brunt of selling during the European crisis, though they experienced a good run during the recent rally.
Wall Street was little impressed by the actions in China, Europe and Britain to loosen monetary policy, which sent the euro lower against the U.S. dollar.
Stocks also derived little benefit from reports on Thursday showing hopeful signs about U.S. hiring by private employers. Markets give more weight to the broader monthly report from the U.S. Labor Department.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 47.15 points, or 0.36 percent, at 12,896.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 6.44 points, or 0.47 percent, at 1,367.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 0.04 point at 2,976.12. 
Losses in the Nasdaq were limited by Apple Inc <AAPL.O>, which rose 1.8 percent to $609.94, and Google Inc <GOOG.O>, up 1.4 percent at $595.92.

Gold falls after cenbank easing, eyes US payrolls

Gold fell on Thursday on a dollar rally and frustrations over a lack of more aggressive market stimulus from central banks after China, Europe and Britain eased their monetary policies. 
Bullion, which has tumbled several times this year after the Federal Reserve did not mention easing, was under pressure again after the top three central banks loosened monetary policy and signaled a growing level of alarm about the world economy.
Gold's inflation-hedge appeal was weakened by the prospect of a global economic slowdown.
Still, gold has gained almost 4 percent since last Friday on hopes of more Fed action after data showed U.S. manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly three years. 
Some dealers also stayed on the sidelines ahead of Friday's closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.  
Spot gold <XAU=> was down 0.5 percent at $1,607.69 an ounce by 2:27 p.m. EDT (1827 GMT).
U.S. gold futures for August delivery <GCQ2> settled down $12.40 at $1,609.40 an ounce. Trading volume after Wednesday's U.S. Independence Day holiday was about 10 percent below average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Drops as ECB’s Draghi Says Economic Risks Remain

Crude dropped in New York after the dollar rose against the euro as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said economic risks remain after the bank cut rates to a record low.
Futures fell 0.5 percent as the dollar reached a one-month high against the common currency. Draghi said there were “downside risks” to the euro-area’s economic outlook. Prices briefly advanced after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. crude supplies fell 4.27 million barrels to 382.9 million last week, the biggest decrease since December.
Crude for August delivery fell 44 cents to settle at $87.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 12 percent this year.
There was no floor trading yesterday because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Transactions since the last close were booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes.
Some “downside risks to the euro-area economic outlook have materialized,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt after lowering the main refinancing rate and the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent and zero respectively. “Economic growth in the euro area continues to remain weak with heightened uncertainty weighing on both confidence and sentiment,” he said.

Nikkei likely to slide after ECB rate cut fails to inspire

Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to slide on Friday after fresh monetary easing in Europe and China failed to boost investor appetite for risk, with market players bracing for U.S. jobs data later in the day.
The European Central Bank cut rates to a record low of 0.75 percent, while China and Britain also loosened policy, but share prices in Europe and on Wall Street dipped.
The Nikkei fell 0.3 percent to 9,079.80 on Thursday, coming off a two-month closing high marked on Wednesday and retreating ahead of its 75-day moving average at 9,158.
A fall in the euro against the yen after the ECB rate hike could hit exporters with high exposure to Europe such as Canon <7751.T> and some other precision machinery makers. 

Seoul shares seen holding as investors eye Samsung, U.S. data

Seoul shares are seen mixed on Friday morning, as investors wait on fresh jobs data from the United States despite action by central banks to boost the flagging global economy.
Industry bellwether Samsung Electronics Co <005930.KS> estimated its April-June operating profit at a record 6.7 trillion won ($5.9 billion), in line with forecasts, powered by
strong sales of its Galaxy smartphones
The European Central Bank cut its main refinancing rate to a record low of 0.75 percent on Thursday as widely expected, while remaining coy on additional "non-standard" measures such as bond-buying or flooding banks with more liquidity.
In a surprise move by Beijing, Chinese policymakers lowered its lending rate by 31 basis points to 6 percent following another unanticipated rate cut last month.
Investors will be closely monitoring Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for the month of June.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ticked 0.06 percent lower to close at 1,875.49 points on Thursday.

Hong Kong shares seen weak, China banks under pressure

Hong Kong shares are poised for a tepid start on Friday despite central bank easing in China and in Europe as investors remain concerned that global economic growth may be worse than feared.
Chinese banking shares, which carry hefty weights on Hong Kong benchmark indices are seen under pressure on worries that the People's Bank of China's second cut in interest rates in two months will further erode net interest margins.[ID:nL3E8I53C9]
The Hang Seng index <.HSI> ended up 0.5 percent on Thursday helped largely by a late-session rally in financials and local bluechips such as Cheung Kong Holdings <0001.HK>.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was little changed while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was down 0.4 percent as of 0045 GMT.


Source : Reuters

Kamis, 05 Juli 2012

Fundamental Analysis, July 5th, 2012

Euro, dollar fall after US factory data

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday while the greenback fell versus the yen as risk aversion increased after  data showing U.S. manufacturing contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. 
The data was another sign the U.S. economic recovery is slowing.
Uncertainty over the outlook for a deal to stabilize euro zone debt markets also troubled investors. Finland and the Netherlands opposed the use of the euro zone's permanent bailout fund to buy government bonds in the secondary markets. 
The stance of the two countries countered positive sentiment from last week's summit deal in which European leaders decided that rescue funds would be available to stabilize bond markets.
Setting the tone for early trading was the Finnish government's position that the rescue fund's bond buying in  secondary markets would require unanimous support from member states. Finland and the Netherlands opposed such a move, casting doubt on prospects for the plan.

Wall St shakes off factory data; S&P, Nasdaq rise

U.S. stocks edged higher on Monday, shaking off a surprise contraction in U.S. manufacturing, which some investors took as a signal the Federal Reserve will take more forceful actions to boost the economy.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index came in at a lower reading than expected in June, registering a contraction in the sector for the first time since July 2009. 
  The weak data supported the view that conditions were worsening, and investors said it made the Fed more likely to adopt additional easy money policies, like a third round of quantitative easing.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 8.70 points, or 0.07 percent, at 12,871.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 3.35 points, or 0.25 percent, at 1,365.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 16.18 points, or 0.55 percent, at 2,951.23.

Gold inches up after weak U.S. manufacturing data

Spot gold edged up Monday, though futures settled easier,  after a report showing an unexpected decline in U.S. manufacturing activity increased bullion's investment appeal.
The metal, which fell in the morning on profit-taking, gained ground after the Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing sector shrank in June for the first time in nearly three years as new orders tumbled.
Gold prices have been sensitive to signs of economic weakness, which tend to increase the likelihood of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
Technical momentum in gold built after Friday's rally on a European deal to shore up banks and cut borrowing costs.
U.S. gold futures for August delivery <GCQ2> settled down $6.50 at $1,597.70 an ounce, having closed earlier and higher than bullion on Friday.

Oil Drops as U.S. Manufacturing Shrinks in June

Oil fell after manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in June for the first time in almost three years.
Prices dropped 1.4 percent as the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. Euro-area unemployment reached the highest level on record in May, the European Union’s statistics office said today. Oil’s decline followed a 9.4 percent jump June 29.
“The ISM number strongly suggests that we’ve got a long haul before we see improvement in the economy and oil demand,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Economic data combined with the spike on Friday are going to convince people to get out of the market.”
Crude for August delivery decreased $1.21 to settle at $83.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices climbed $7.27 on June 29 to $84.96. The percentage gain was the biggest since March 12, 2009. Oil is down 15 percent this year.

Nikkei seen capped by disappointment U.S. data

Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to be capped on Tuesday after surprise weakness in U.S. manufacturing data, although renewed speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may step in to boost growth could offer support.
U.S. manufacturing shrank in June for the first time in nearly three years as new orders plummeted, with the Institute for Supply Management index of national factory activity falling to 49.7 from 53.5 the month before, missing expectations of 52.0.
Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 9,040, up slightly from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 9,030.
Trading on Tuesday was likely to capped at around 9,100, which should draw selling, including from Japanese retail investors, market players said.

Seoul shares seen in a range as soft data offset by QE3 hopes

Seoul shares are seen caught in a range on Tuesday as concerns about signs of flagging global
economic growth are offset by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve may be spurred into providing additional stimulus measures.
Europe's debt crisis slammed into the world's factories last month, with U.S. manufacturing contracting for the first time in nearly three years, in the wake of similar data from China and Japan sinking to respective seven-month lows.
But U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday as investors shook off the weaker-than-expected data, taking it as a signal that the Federal Reserve will again step in to prop up the economy.
Market players are eyeing a European Central Bank policy meeting scheduled for Thursday, where the majority of economists polled by Reuters are expecting a rate cut.
 The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> edged 0.13 percent lower to close at 1,851.65 points on Monday.

Hong Kong shares set to gain after long weekend

Hong Kong shares are poised to open higher on Tuesday as local markets reopen and play catch-up with overseas bourses, spurred by hopes of more monetary easing from global central banks.
The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> was set to start up 1.67 percent at 19,765.41. The China Enterprises index <.HSCE> of top locally listed mainland companies was indicated to open up 0.98 percent.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, July 5th, 2012


CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2460-1.2630
Down
1.2690
1.2510

1.2570
1.2460
1.2630
1.2630
1.2450
USD/JPY
78.90-80.60
Up
80.70
78.90
79.50

80.60
78.90
80.10
78.30
GBP/USD
1.5510-1.5690
Down
1.5750
1.5570

1.5630
1.5510
1.5690
1.5690
1.5510
USD/CHF
0.9490-0.9660
Up
0.9670
0.9490
0.9550

0.9660
0.9490
0.9610
0.9430
AUD/USD
1.0190-1.0360
Down
1.0420
1.0240

1.0300
1.0190
1.0360
1.0360
1.0180
NIKKEI
8930-9110
Down
9170
8990

9050
8930
9110
9110
8920
HANGSENG
19590-19770
Down
19830
19650

19710
19590
19770
19770
19580
KOSPI
246.70-248.50
Down
249.10
247.30

247.90
246.70
248.50
248.50
246.60
GOLD
1596.40-1618.90
Up
1618.90
1596.40
1603.90

1618.90
1596.40
1611.40
1588.90

Rabu, 04 Juli 2012

Orientasi Kebijakan Potensial Hanya Untuk Jangka Pendek


Melihat tingginya harapan pasar terhadap adanya pelonggaran kebijakan dari beberapa bank sentral utama dunia, sepertinya optimisme mulai tumbuh dikalangan para investor bahwa para bank sentral tersebut tidak akan tinggal diam menghadapi dampak yang disebabkan oleh krisis hutang Eropa. Yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah: apakah langkah-langkah tersebut akan berdampak positif dalam waktu dekat?
Bila kita bercermin pada harapan kepada Federal Reserve Bank beberapa pekan lalu, dengan harapan akan munculnya QE3, yang ternyata berujung pada Operation Twist, maka masih ada segelintir orang yang merasa bahwa QE3, apapun bentuknya dan dibelahan manapun program serupa akan berasal, pesimisme di beberapa kalangan masih akan bertahan.
Selain itu, bila kita merujuk pada aktivitas sektor manufaktur di beberapa negara ekonomi utama dunia seperti China, AS dan Eropa, sepertinya langkah yang akan diambil masih terpusat pada kepentingan negara masing-masing. Proteksi yang dilakukan Apple sebagai contoh, melihat dari betapa takut dan khawatirnya akan persaingan dengan alasan pelanggaran hak paten, perusahaan tersebut terus berusaha menekan masuknya produk-produk pesaing. Tentunya hal ini bukan sebuah contoh mutlak.
Lalu, bagaimana harapan langkah-langkah yang akan diambil para bank sentrak dunia tersebut terkait data-data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pekan ini, tepatnya pada 5 Juli 2012, seperti data jobs dari AS. Apakah bank-bank sentral dunia tersebut akan membenahi perekonomian mereka terlebih dahulu atau langsung memberikan bantuan kepada Eropa yang dianggap merupakan penyebab utama kejatuhan pemulihan ekonomi dunia, atau melakukan sebagaimana layaknya China yang mungkin tidak terlihat sebagai negara dengan perekonomian yang tertutup, tetapi dengan kebijakan internal negara tersebut yang memberikan instruksi kepada otonomi bank pemerintah yang relatif besar untuk memperlonggar kebijakan kepada bank-bank kecil lainnya akan dilakukan oleh negara lainnya? Ataukah hal ini juga akan dilakukan seperti halnya Uni Eropa untuk membantu Spanyol dalam menyelamatkan sektor perbankannya? Tentunya kedua hal tersebut masih menjadi gambaran bahwa conflict of interest antar para bank sentral tersebut.
Bila kita melihat ke sisi dalam dari suatu pemerintahan, tentunya pengecualian untuk China, masalah internal politik untuk Eropa dan AS sepertinya masih akan membayangi langkah-langkah yang akan menguntungkan beberapa pihak partai politik untuk mendulang suara. Lalu bagaimana dengan masyarakat yang merasakan dampak langsung dari kebijakan politik yang diambil? Apakah akan sejalan dengan kehendak warga negara di negara masing-masing?
Beberapa pertanyaan pun masih menggantung untuk jangka waktu dekat ini adalah: (1). Bagaimana China akan menanggulangi dampak inflasi yang disebabkan tingginya harga perumahan disana ditengah pelonggaran kebijakan perbankan. (2). Bagaimana badan administrasi Obama yang tengah sibuk mengatasi masalah politik dalam pemilu yang akan datang ditengah desakan perubahan ekonomi di AS untuk mengatasi masalah pengangguran disana, terlebih saat pasar mulai meragukan kepastian QE3 setelah beberapa saat lalu telah mengecewakan pasar, dengan alih-alih melakukan pelonggaran kebijakan, tetapi malah kembali melakukan penjualan obligasi jangka pendek untuk kemudian membeli kembali obligasi-obligasi jangka panjang? (3). Bagaimana dengan Jerman sebagai pemilik kekuatan yang tertinggi untuk ekonominya dengan situasi yang tergolong kondusif dibandingkan dengan negara lainnya, apakah Jerman setuju untuk membantu dengan mengatakan bahwa seharusnya persyaratan untuk bantuan diperketat dengan tujuan agar negara-negara yang dililit masalah hutang tersebut agar mandiri?
Apabila dengan asumsi sebagaimana yang dijabarkan diatas, langkah-langkah konkrit yang akan diambil oleh para bank sentral sepertinya masih merupakan upaya jangka pendek untuk mengatasi masalah. Dan bukan tidak mungkin peran conflict of interest bisa saja terjadi.