Fundamental Analysis, June 22nd, 2012

Dollar rallies on weak data, Fed disappointment

The U.S. dollar posted its biggest rise in more than three months against major currencies on Thursday as weak economic data around the globe further unnerved investors disappointed with the Federal Reserve's decision to take only a modest step to bolster the economy.

Currencies of commodity-linked economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada sold off as investors dumped riskier investments and parked money in the relative safety of the dollar. U.S. jobless claims indicated the labor market is still struggling, while signs of softening in U.S. manufacturing and weakness in global output heightened the aversion to risk.

The data comes a day after the U.S. central bank expanded a program to keep long-term borrowing costs down and said it was ready to do more if needed, but disappointed some investors who had hoped for another round of bond buying. The euro dropped as low as $1.2546 <EUR=> on Reuters data, far off Wednesday's high of $1.2744. It was last at $1.2562, down 1.1 percent, on track for its largest daily loss in more than three months.

Adding to weakness in the euro was data showing Germany's private sector shrank in June for the second month running, with manufacturing activity hitting a three-year low.  The weak euro zone data kept alive speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates soon, offering investors a fresh excuse to sell the euro.

Wall St suffers worst loss in three weeks

U.S. stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits. Shares of energy and materials companies led declines as commodity prices fell. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October and the S&P energy sector index <.GSPE> lost 4 percent. Investors said weak overseas demand was responsible for the decline in those industries.

Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness. Stocks had enjoyed a two-week run that brought the S&P up more than 7 percent on hopes for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve.  Business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted, while weaker overseas demand slowed growth by U.S. factories.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 251.35 points, or 1.96 percent, at 12,573.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 30.19 points, or 2.23 percent, at 1,325.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 71.36 points, or 2.44 percent, at 2,859.09.

The day's decline was the worst since June 1 when the S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent. Softening data globally lifted hopes of central bank action to support the economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it would extend one monetary stimulus program and said it was ready to do more to help economic growth if necessary.

Gold drops 2.5 pct after data stirs deflation fears

Gold fell 2.5 percent on Thursday, nearly wiping out this year's gains as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown and disappointment over a lack of aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus dampened bullion's inflation-hedge appeal. The metal posted its biggest one-day drop since Feb. 29. Its selloff started o n Wednesday when the Fed ended a policy meeting without launching a new round of monetary easing but instead opted to lengthen its "Operation Twist" program aimed at lowering long-term interest rates.

Deflation worries pummelled precious metals after reports showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity, a shrinking Chinese factory sector and slowing business activity across the euro zone. The data added to fears that Europe's debt crisis and slower growth in the United States and Asia would cause downturns around the globe.

Spot gold <XAU=> fell 2.5 percent to $1,566 an ounce by 3:05 p.m. EDT (1905 GMT), having earlier hit a low of $1,563.88, within 10 cents to turning negative for the year compared with the 2011 close at $1,563.80 on Dec. 30. U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery were down $50.20 an ounce at $1,565.60, with trading volume in line with the 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Futures Drop Below $80 for First Time in Eight Months

Oil in New York tumbled below $80 a barrel and Brent crude fell under $90 as reports signaling a global economic slowdown added to concern that demand will slow amid rising supplies. Futures dropped 4 percent, the most this year, as manufacturing slumped in the U.S., China and Europe, applications for U.S. unemployment benefits exceeded estimates and sales of existing homes were lower than expected. Oil stockpiles rose last week to the most since 1990, the Energy Department reported yesterday.
 

Crude futures for August delivery fell $3.25 to $78.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Oct. 4. The price is down 21 percent in 2012. Brent oil for August decreased $3.46, or 3.7 percent, to $89.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest settlement since December 2010. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate settled at $11.03, the lowest level since January.

Fears about the economy are making people very leery. The jobless claims, the manufacturing data and all the economic data are coming together to push almost everything down.

Nikkei set to fall on global growth concerns

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to open lower on Friday, as data showing U.S. manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in 11 months in June added to concerns about weaker growth in Europe and China.
The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,650 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,740 on Thursday, down 0.9 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,820.

A weaker yen against the dollar may provide some support to Japanese equities. Japanese financial stocks may also be in focus after ratings agency Moody's cut the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks, including JPMorgan <JPM.N>, Bank of America <BAC.N>, HSBC <HSBA.L> and Credit Suisse <CSGN.VX>, in an expected move that was part of a broad review of major financial institutions. On Thursday, the Nikkei gained 0.8 percent to 8,824.07, hitting a five-week closing high. The benchmark is up 3 percent so far this week, but is still down 12.5 percent on the quarter, weighed by concerns about a deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing growth in the United States and China. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 0.9 percent to 753.96, its highest close since May 14.

Seoul shares seen inching down on soft U.S. data

Seoul shares are likely to edge down on Friday as U.S. stocks suffered their worst loss in three weeks the day before due to growing signs of a slowdown in manufacturing growth worldwide. Surveys showed on Thursday that weaker overseas demand slowed U.S. factory growth for 11 months running, while business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.79 percent to close at 1,889.15 points on Thursday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, weekly gain in doubt

Hong Kong shares could end the week lower on Friday, tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street after global manufacturing data disappointed, with the losses poised to wipe out weekly gains for benchmark indices. Global stocks fell 2 percent and Brent crude oil ended at its lowest in 18 months on Thursday as data showing Chinese, European and U.S. manufacturing activity slowing further underscored worries about weaker global growth.

In a measure of negative market sentiment, South African coal miner LontohCoal has delayed its $1 billion Hong Kong initial public offering due to difficult market conditions, extending the time frame for the listing to the end of February next year, its chief executive said. On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slid 1.3 percent to 19,265.1, its biggest one-day loss since a 2 percent drop on June 4. It is up 0.2 percent on the week to date. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.9 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was down 1.7 percent by 0033 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 26th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2390-1.2600	Down	1.2600	1.2460		1.2530	1.2390	1.2600
			1.2670	1.2390
USD/JPY	78.70-80.50	Up	79.90	78.70	79.30		80.50	78.70
			80.50	78.10
GBP/USD	1.5470-1.5680	Down	1.5680	1.5540		1.5610	1.5470	1.5680
			1.5750	1.5470
USD/CHF	0.9510-0.9720	Up	0.9650	0.9510	0.9580		0.9720	0.9510
			0.9720	0.9440
AUD/USD	0.9890-1.0100	Down	1.0100	0.9960		1.0030	0.9890	1.0100
			1.0170	0.9890
NIKKEI	8510-8720	Down	8720	8580		8650	8510	8720
			8790	8510
HANGSENG	18640-19000	Down	19000	18760		18880	18640	19000
			19120	18640
KOSPI	238.40-241.70	Down	241.70	239.50		240.60	238.40	241.70
			242.80	238.40
GOLD	1572.10-1596.80	Up	1588.60	1572.10	1580.30		1596.80	1572.10
			1596.80	1563.80

Dampak Eropa Terhadap AS Masih Minim: Paulson

Mantan Menteri Keuangan AS, Henry Paulson mengatakan bahwa AS masih aman dari dampak krisis hutang dari Eropa saat upaya untuk membantu Yunani, Spanyol dan negara-negara lainnya untuk menstabilkan perekonomian mereka masih akan berjalan dalam jangka waktu yang lama.

“Walau Eropa masih dalam masalah, AS akan terus berjuang dalam memulihkan ekonominya yang mungkin masih belum akan berpengaruh banyak terhadap sektor tenaga kerja”, dikatakan Paulson yang menjabat sebagai menteri keuangan dari bulan Juli 2006 hingga Januari 2009, pada sebuah konferensi industri bioteknologi di Boston hari ini. Eropa akan mampu menstabilkan keadaan dan menghindari kebangkrutan”, dikatakannya.

Presiden Obama dan kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel yang merupakan dua pimpinan negara besar dunia yang bertemu di Meksiko pekan ini akan berusaha memastikan bahwa ancaman terhadap krisis hutang Eropa tidak akan menyebabkan resesi global. Mereka bertemu saat tingkat yield obligasi Spanyol melonjak hingga mencapai rekor baru Eropa dan pemilu di Yunani yang gagal menyingkirkan penyebaran krisis hutang.

Emas Menguat Terkait Prospek Stimulus Fed

Emas bergerak naik hari Rabu ini terkait aksi beli spekulatif yang terbawa harapan untuk stimulus dari Fed AS yang mungkin akan memperpanjang program pembelian obligasi jangka panjang guna menstimulasi ekonomi, sebuah langkah untuk mendorong status emas sebagai safe-haven.

FOMC akan merilis sebuah pernyataan kebijakan di akhir pertemuan hari Rabu ini. Program Operation Twist, yang melibatkan pembelian obligasi jangka panjang dan mendanai pembelian tersebut dengan menjual obligasi jangka pendek, dijadwalkan akan berakhir bulan ini.

Spot emas bergerak naik $2.99 menjadi $1,619.59. Emas mengalami lonjakan harga tertinggi di 2012 di sekitar harga $1,790 di bulan Februari setelah saat itu Fed mengatakan akan menahan tingkat suku bunga mendekati 0 (nol) hingga 2014 paling cepat.

Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman bulan Agustua turun $2.20 menjadi $1,621.00.

Fundamental Analysis, June 19th, 2012

Euro falls as Spain worry overshadows Greek vote

The euro fell from a one-month high against the dollar on Monday as surging Spanish borrowing costs fueled fears of an escalating euro zone debt crisis and overshadowed a weekend victory for pro-bailout parties in Greek elections.

Spanish bond yields rose above 7 percent, the highest since the euro was launched in 1999, threatening Madrid's ability to finance itself. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent.

Although Sunday's vote eased immediate concerns about Greece being forced out of the euro zone, the narrow victory raised doubts over how the winning New Democracy party would implement deep spending cuts and tax increases that come with the bailout.

The euro <EUR=> was down 0.5 percent at $1.2576, off a one-month high of $1.2747 hit in Asia as it came under pressure on reported selling by Asian sovereign investors. It was the euro's worst showing in nearly three weeks. Investors are shifting focus to a policy announcement by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Some analysts said the euro could gain versus the dollar on speculation the U.S. central bank may opt for more easing to boost growth. 

Many market players expect the Fed to extend its long-term bond-buying through Operation Twist by a few months from the current deadline of June after a series of disappointing data. Citigroup, for one, expects a modest extension of Operation Twist by $200 billion, although it may not have as much risk-positive impact as the two rounds of quantitative easing.
The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 79.09 yen <JPY=>. The euro was little changed at 99.48 yen <EURJPY=>.

Tech outpaces a market bedeviled by Europe

The Nasdaq advanced on Monday, propelled by a rally in Apple and other big-cap tech stocks, but fears Europe's debt crisis is in danger of worsening limited broader gains.
Positive analyst comments lifted both eBay <EBAY.O>, up 4.5 percent to $42.49, and Groupon Inc <GRPN.O>, up 10.8 percent at $11.15. Apple Inc <AAPL.O> accounted for about half the Nasdaq's rise, climbing 2 percent to $585.78.

The S&P eked out a slight gain as it bumped up against its 50-day moving average around 1,347 while the Dow ended lower. A weekend election victory by pro-bailout parties in Greece removed one headwind facing the euro zone. But rising bond yields in Spain and Italy reinforced views that Europe has yet to control its debt crisis.

A senior official with Greece's New Democracy party, the conservatives who won Sunday's election and who back Athens' international bailout plan, told Reuters that Greece would form a government on Tuesday.
The election results also offered little reprieve from contagion concerns as yields on both Italian and Spanish bonds rose, with Spain's 10-year yield <ES10YT=TWEB> climbing above the 7 percent mark at which other highly indebted euro-zone nations were forced to seek bailouts. European authorities have already agreed to a 100-billion-euro ($125 billion) rescue for Spain's troubled banks.

Market participants were also reluctant to take bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, with investors keen to see if the Fed will announce new stimulative measures in its policy statement at the meeting's close on Wednesday afternoon.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 25.28 points, or 0.20 percent, at 12,741.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 1.94 points, or 0.14 percent, at 1,344.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 22.53 points, or 0.78 percent, at 2,895.33.

An index of energy shares <.GSPE> fell 0.8 percent on Monday, with the sector ranking as the S&P 500's worst performer. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> dropped 1 percent after falling for six of the last seven weeks.

Gold edges up on uncertainty over Europe, FOMC

Gold eked out a small gain on Monday as lingering uncertainty over the euro zone debt crisis following Greece's elections and a policy meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted bullion from its early losses.
Safe-haven bids boosted gold as G20 leaders pressed Europe to do whatever it takes to combat Europe's crisis after a victory for pro-bailout parties in a Greek vote reduced the chances of a euro breakup but failed to calm financial markets.  

Monday's trading volume of U.S. gold stood at just over half of its 30-day average, and gold option volatility also tumbled as investors opted to stay on the sidelines ahead of a key Fed
meeting later this week.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 30 cents at $1,628.09 an ounce by 2:11 p.m. EDT (1811 GMT), recovering from an early low of $1,606.49. Prior to Monday, bullion had ended higher in each of the last six sessions.
U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled down $1.10 at $1,627. Trading volume was about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed, consistent with last week's weak trend.

Crude Falls for First Time in Three Days on European Debt

Oil dropped for the first time in three days as the worsening European debt crisis threatened to slow global economic growth and reduce demand for crude.

Prices declined 0.9 percent as Spanish borrowing costs rose to a euro-era high. More loans went unpaid in April, Bank of Spain data showed, suggesting the country’s recession is forcing more companies and consumers into default. Weekend elections in Greece eased concern that the country will exit the euro.

“There is a bearish economic contagion in Europe and it’s essentially bringing prices down,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Although the Greek news was positive, people are more concerned now about Spain.” Oil for July delivery fell 76 cents to settle at $83.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 19 percent in the second quarter and 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for August settlement dropped $1.56, or 1.6 percent, to $96.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The 10-year Spanish bond yield jumped above 7 percent for the first time since the creation of the euro. Bad loans as a proportion of total Spanish lending rose to 8.72 percent in April, the highest level since 1994.

Nikkei set to slip as concerns on Spain persist

Japan's Nikkei average is on Tuesday expected to give up some of its hefty gains from the previous session as initial enthusiasm over a victory for pro-bailout parties in Greece gives way to persistent concerns over Spain and its banks. The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,600 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,680 on Monday, down 0.6 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,730.

Spanish bond yields hit a new euro-era high above 7 percent on Monday, with bad loans at banks in Spain climbing to 8.72 percent of their outstanding portfolios in April, the highest level since April 1994, Bank of Spain data showed on Monday. That is up from 8.37 percent a month earlier.
The surge in borrowing costs threatened Spain's ability to fund itself and raises speculation the country may need a full-blown bailout. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields climbed above 7 percent.

The Nikkei on Monday climbed 1.8 percent to 8,721.02, its highest closing level since May 22 and breaking above its 25-day moving average at 8,601.54.

But the benchmark is still down 13.5 percent so far this quarter after rallying 19.3 percent in January-March to log its best first quarter performance in 24 years. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 1.7 percent to 738.81 on Monday, also marking a one-month closing high.

Seoul shares seen rangebound as relief rally fizzles out

Seoul shares are likely to be trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday, as hopes for decisive action from Europe's governments to handle the region's debt crisis limit appetite for offloading shares after a rally the day before.
With relief from a narrow pro-bailout victory in Sunday's Greek election rapidly fading and the World Bank lowering its global growth forecast, World leaders gathered in Mexico for a Group of 20 summit pressured Europe on Monday to take ambitious new steps to resolve its debt crisis. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 1.8 percent to close at 1,891.71 points on Monday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, Spain bailout fears weigh

Hong Kong shares are expected to start lower on Tuesday, with risk appetite crimped after Spain's borrowing costs jumped, raising speculation it might need a full-blown bailout. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> on Monday closed up 1 percent at 19,427.8, off its high for the day just shy of its 200-day moving average, currently at about 19,593.1. 

The 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its rise from October lows to February highs is at about 19,644.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.4 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was 0.2 percent lower at 0029 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 20th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2600-1.2780	Up	1.2780	1.2600	1.2660		1.2780	1.2600
			1.2720	1.2540
USD/JPY	78.00-79.50	Down	80.00	78.50		79.00	78.00	79.50
			79.50	78.00
GBP/USD	1.5640-1.5820	Up	1.5820	1.5640			1.5820
			1.5760	1.5820
USD/CHF	0.9360-0.9540	Down	0.9600	0.9420		0.9480	0.9360	0.9540
			0.9540	0.9360
AUD/USD	1.0100-1.0280	Up	1.0280	1.0100	1.0160		1.0280	1.0100
			1.0220	1.0040
NIKKEI	8630-8810	Up	8810	8630	8690		8810	8630
			8750	8570
HANGSENG	19240-19420	Up	19420	19240	19300		19420	19240
			19360	19180
KOSPI	252.30-254.10	Up	254.10	252.30	252.90		254.10	252.30
			253.50	251.70
GOLD	1604.50-1628.50	Down	1636.50	1612.50		1620.50	1604.50	1628.50
			1628.50	1604.50