Technical Analysis, June 26th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2390-1.2600	Down	1.2600	1.2460		1.2530	1.2390	1.2600
			1.2670	1.2390
USD/JPY	78.70-80.50	Up	79.90	78.70	79.30		80.50	78.70
			80.50	78.10
GBP/USD	1.5470-1.5680	Down	1.5680	1.5540		1.5610	1.5470	1.5680
			1.5750	1.5470
USD/CHF	0.9510-0.9720	Up	0.9650	0.9510	0.9580		0.9720	0.9510
			0.9720	0.9440
AUD/USD	0.9890-1.0100	Down	1.0100	0.9960		1.0030	0.9890	1.0100
			1.0170	0.9890
NIKKEI	8510-8720	Down	8720	8580		8650	8510	8720
			8790	8510
HANGSENG	18640-19000	Down	19000	18760		18880	18640	19000
			19120	18640
KOSPI	238.40-241.70	Down	241.70	239.50		240.60	238.40	241.70
			242.80	238.40
GOLD	1572.10-1596.80	Up	1588.60	1572.10	1580.30		1596.80	1572.10
			1596.80	1563.80

Dampak Eropa Terhadap AS Masih Minim: Paulson

Mantan Menteri Keuangan AS, Henry Paulson mengatakan bahwa AS masih aman dari dampak krisis hutang dari Eropa saat upaya untuk membantu Yunani, Spanyol dan negara-negara lainnya untuk menstabilkan perekonomian mereka masih akan berjalan dalam jangka waktu yang lama.

“Walau Eropa masih dalam masalah, AS akan terus berjuang dalam memulihkan ekonominya yang mungkin masih belum akan berpengaruh banyak terhadap sektor tenaga kerja”, dikatakan Paulson yang menjabat sebagai menteri keuangan dari bulan Juli 2006 hingga Januari 2009, pada sebuah konferensi industri bioteknologi di Boston hari ini. Eropa akan mampu menstabilkan keadaan dan menghindari kebangkrutan”, dikatakannya.

Presiden Obama dan kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel yang merupakan dua pimpinan negara besar dunia yang bertemu di Meksiko pekan ini akan berusaha memastikan bahwa ancaman terhadap krisis hutang Eropa tidak akan menyebabkan resesi global. Mereka bertemu saat tingkat yield obligasi Spanyol melonjak hingga mencapai rekor baru Eropa dan pemilu di Yunani yang gagal menyingkirkan penyebaran krisis hutang.

Emas Menguat Terkait Prospek Stimulus Fed

Emas bergerak naik hari Rabu ini terkait aksi beli spekulatif yang terbawa harapan untuk stimulus dari Fed AS yang mungkin akan memperpanjang program pembelian obligasi jangka panjang guna menstimulasi ekonomi, sebuah langkah untuk mendorong status emas sebagai safe-haven.

FOMC akan merilis sebuah pernyataan kebijakan di akhir pertemuan hari Rabu ini. Program Operation Twist, yang melibatkan pembelian obligasi jangka panjang dan mendanai pembelian tersebut dengan menjual obligasi jangka pendek, dijadwalkan akan berakhir bulan ini.

Spot emas bergerak naik $2.99 menjadi $1,619.59. Emas mengalami lonjakan harga tertinggi di 2012 di sekitar harga $1,790 di bulan Februari setelah saat itu Fed mengatakan akan menahan tingkat suku bunga mendekati 0 (nol) hingga 2014 paling cepat.

Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman bulan Agustua turun $2.20 menjadi $1,621.00.

Fundamental Analysis, June 19th, 2012

Euro falls as Spain worry overshadows Greek vote

The euro fell from a one-month high against the dollar on Monday as surging Spanish borrowing costs fueled fears of an escalating euro zone debt crisis and overshadowed a weekend victory for pro-bailout parties in Greek elections.

Spanish bond yields rose above 7 percent, the highest since the euro was launched in 1999, threatening Madrid's ability to finance itself. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent.

Although Sunday's vote eased immediate concerns about Greece being forced out of the euro zone, the narrow victory raised doubts over how the winning New Democracy party would implement deep spending cuts and tax increases that come with the bailout.

The euro <EUR=> was down 0.5 percent at $1.2576, off a one-month high of $1.2747 hit in Asia as it came under pressure on reported selling by Asian sovereign investors. It was the euro's worst showing in nearly three weeks. Investors are shifting focus to a policy announcement by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Some analysts said the euro could gain versus the dollar on speculation the U.S. central bank may opt for more easing to boost growth. 

Many market players expect the Fed to extend its long-term bond-buying through Operation Twist by a few months from the current deadline of June after a series of disappointing data. Citigroup, for one, expects a modest extension of Operation Twist by $200 billion, although it may not have as much risk-positive impact as the two rounds of quantitative easing.
The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 79.09 yen <JPY=>. The euro was little changed at 99.48 yen <EURJPY=>.

Tech outpaces a market bedeviled by Europe

The Nasdaq advanced on Monday, propelled by a rally in Apple and other big-cap tech stocks, but fears Europe's debt crisis is in danger of worsening limited broader gains.
Positive analyst comments lifted both eBay <EBAY.O>, up 4.5 percent to $42.49, and Groupon Inc <GRPN.O>, up 10.8 percent at $11.15. Apple Inc <AAPL.O> accounted for about half the Nasdaq's rise, climbing 2 percent to $585.78.

The S&P eked out a slight gain as it bumped up against its 50-day moving average around 1,347 while the Dow ended lower. A weekend election victory by pro-bailout parties in Greece removed one headwind facing the euro zone. But rising bond yields in Spain and Italy reinforced views that Europe has yet to control its debt crisis.

A senior official with Greece's New Democracy party, the conservatives who won Sunday's election and who back Athens' international bailout plan, told Reuters that Greece would form a government on Tuesday.
The election results also offered little reprieve from contagion concerns as yields on both Italian and Spanish bonds rose, with Spain's 10-year yield <ES10YT=TWEB> climbing above the 7 percent mark at which other highly indebted euro-zone nations were forced to seek bailouts. European authorities have already agreed to a 100-billion-euro ($125 billion) rescue for Spain's troubled banks.

Market participants were also reluctant to take bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, with investors keen to see if the Fed will announce new stimulative measures in its policy statement at the meeting's close on Wednesday afternoon.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 25.28 points, or 0.20 percent, at 12,741.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 1.94 points, or 0.14 percent, at 1,344.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 22.53 points, or 0.78 percent, at 2,895.33.

An index of energy shares <.GSPE> fell 0.8 percent on Monday, with the sector ranking as the S&P 500's worst performer. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> dropped 1 percent after falling for six of the last seven weeks.

Gold edges up on uncertainty over Europe, FOMC

Gold eked out a small gain on Monday as lingering uncertainty over the euro zone debt crisis following Greece's elections and a policy meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted bullion from its early losses.
Safe-haven bids boosted gold as G20 leaders pressed Europe to do whatever it takes to combat Europe's crisis after a victory for pro-bailout parties in a Greek vote reduced the chances of a euro breakup but failed to calm financial markets.  

Monday's trading volume of U.S. gold stood at just over half of its 30-day average, and gold option volatility also tumbled as investors opted to stay on the sidelines ahead of a key Fed
meeting later this week.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 30 cents at $1,628.09 an ounce by 2:11 p.m. EDT (1811 GMT), recovering from an early low of $1,606.49. Prior to Monday, bullion had ended higher in each of the last six sessions.
U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled down $1.10 at $1,627. Trading volume was about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed, consistent with last week's weak trend.

Crude Falls for First Time in Three Days on European Debt

Oil dropped for the first time in three days as the worsening European debt crisis threatened to slow global economic growth and reduce demand for crude.

Prices declined 0.9 percent as Spanish borrowing costs rose to a euro-era high. More loans went unpaid in April, Bank of Spain data showed, suggesting the country’s recession is forcing more companies and consumers into default. Weekend elections in Greece eased concern that the country will exit the euro.

“There is a bearish economic contagion in Europe and it’s essentially bringing prices down,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Although the Greek news was positive, people are more concerned now about Spain.” Oil for July delivery fell 76 cents to settle at $83.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 19 percent in the second quarter and 16 percent this year.

Brent oil for August settlement dropped $1.56, or 1.6 percent, to $96.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The 10-year Spanish bond yield jumped above 7 percent for the first time since the creation of the euro. Bad loans as a proportion of total Spanish lending rose to 8.72 percent in April, the highest level since 1994.

Nikkei set to slip as concerns on Spain persist

Japan's Nikkei average is on Tuesday expected to give up some of its hefty gains from the previous session as initial enthusiasm over a victory for pro-bailout parties in Greece gives way to persistent concerns over Spain and its banks. The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,600 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,680 on Monday, down 0.6 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,730.

Spanish bond yields hit a new euro-era high above 7 percent on Monday, with bad loans at banks in Spain climbing to 8.72 percent of their outstanding portfolios in April, the highest level since April 1994, Bank of Spain data showed on Monday. That is up from 8.37 percent a month earlier.
The surge in borrowing costs threatened Spain's ability to fund itself and raises speculation the country may need a full-blown bailout. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were forced to seek international bailouts soon after their 10-year bond yields climbed above 7 percent.

The Nikkei on Monday climbed 1.8 percent to 8,721.02, its highest closing level since May 22 and breaking above its 25-day moving average at 8,601.54.

But the benchmark is still down 13.5 percent so far this quarter after rallying 19.3 percent in January-March to log its best first quarter performance in 24 years. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 1.7 percent to 738.81 on Monday, also marking a one-month closing high.

Seoul shares seen rangebound as relief rally fizzles out

Seoul shares are likely to be trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday, as hopes for decisive action from Europe's governments to handle the region's debt crisis limit appetite for offloading shares after a rally the day before.
With relief from a narrow pro-bailout victory in Sunday's Greek election rapidly fading and the World Bank lowering its global growth forecast, World leaders gathered in Mexico for a Group of 20 summit pressured Europe on Monday to take ambitious new steps to resolve its debt crisis. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 1.8 percent to close at 1,891.71 points on Monday.

Hong Kong shares seen lower, Spain bailout fears weigh

Hong Kong shares are expected to start lower on Tuesday, with risk appetite crimped after Spain's borrowing costs jumped, raising speculation it might need a full-blown bailout. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> on Monday closed up 1 percent at 19,427.8, off its high for the day just shy of its 200-day moving average, currently at about 19,593.1. 

The 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its rise from October lows to February highs is at about 19,644.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.4 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was 0.2 percent lower at 0029 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, June 20th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2600-1.2780	Up	1.2780	1.2600	1.2660		1.2780	1.2600
			1.2720	1.2540
USD/JPY	78.00-79.50	Down	80.00	78.50		79.00	78.00	79.50
			79.50	78.00
GBP/USD	1.5640-1.5820	Up	1.5820	1.5640			1.5820
			1.5760	1.5820
USD/CHF	0.9360-0.9540	Down	0.9600	0.9420		0.9480	0.9360	0.9540
			0.9540	0.9360
AUD/USD	1.0100-1.0280	Up	1.0280	1.0100	1.0160		1.0280	1.0100
			1.0220	1.0040
NIKKEI	8630-8810	Up	8810	8630	8690		8810	8630
			8750	8570
HANGSENG	19240-19420	Up	19420	19240	19300		19420	19240
			19360	19180
KOSPI	252.30-254.10	Up	254.10	252.30	252.90		254.10	252.30
			253.50	251.70
GOLD	1604.50-1628.50	Down	1636.50	1612.50		1620.50	1604.50	1628.50
			1628.50	1604.50

Fundamental Analysis, June 14th, 2012

Euro advances for 2nd day, but gains seen limited

The euro rose against the dollar and yen for a second straight session on Wednesday as investors continued to pare extremely bearish positions ahead of crucial Greek elections, but concerns about Spanish and Italian debt yields could spur a reversal. 

Investors covered their short positions on the euro ahead of the elections in Greece on Sunday, with the outcome too close to call. Syriza, the leftist party opposed to austerity measures, and the New Democracy group, which backs Greece's international bailout, are locked in a tight race and investors are only too willing to sit on the sidelines and await the results.  

In late afternoon trading the euro <EUR=> last traded up 0.4 percent at $1.2565, its strongest gain in a week. That was well above the near two-year low touched on June 1 at $1.2288, but below a three-week high reached on Monday at $1.2671. 

Traders said if Italian and Spanish bond yields continued to edge toward perceived unsustainable levels of around 7 percent, the euro may well come under more pressure in the near term. 

Italy faces a test on Thursday, when it plans to offer up to 4.5 billion euros ($5.66 billion) of fixed-rate bonds.

The dollar, meanwhile, turned negative against the Japanese yen after the government reported U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in May. Excluding autos, retail sales showed their biggest monthly decline in two years.

The dollar was down 0.1 percent against the yen at 79.45 yen <JPY=>, according to Reuters data.  

Wall St sells off late, succumbs to Europe fears

Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday as fears ahead of the weekend elections in Greece finally drove down a market that had been treading water through most of the day. 

Up to 800 million euros ($1 billion) have been pulled out of Greek banks daily ahead of the cliffhanger election on Sunday, which many fear will result in Greece leaving the euro zone. If that happens, investors fear other peripheral nations may also have to exist.  

The euro zone's cloudy future has made investors inclined to quickly reverse positions. On Wednesday, they pounded shares in financial, energy and materials sectors into the close.  

Volume surged after three weak sessions. About 7.1 billion share trade on the NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq, slightly above the 20-day moving average. 

Also weighing on sentiment, the government reported U.S. retail sales fell in May to their worst level in two years, the latest data to point to sluggish U.S. growth after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report in May sparked widespread fears of a slowdown. The S&P Retail Index <.RLX> lost 1.5 percent. 

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N> were a standout, rising 1.6 percent as the bank's chief executive, Jamie Dimon, defended the portfolio behind JPMorgan's recent multibillion-dollar trading loss, telling lawmakers it was a genuine hedge that would make the firm a lot of money if a credit crisis hit. 

In the overall market, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 77.42 points, or 0.62 percent, at 12,496.38. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 9.30 points, or 0.70 percent, at 1,314.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 24.46 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,818.61.

Gold rises for 4th day, eyes technical resistance

Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday on safe-haven bids due to uncertainties in Europe ahead of a key election in Greece, but the metal's repeated failures to break above major chart resistance could trigger technical selling. 

Bullion raced toward $1,625 an ounce earlier in the session after weak U.S. retail sales and wholesale prices data raised the prospect of additional monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Concerns about Spanish and Italian debt and jitters over Sunday's Greek election also kept gold prices supported.  

The metal, which has largely moved in sync with risky assets so far this year, later pared gains even though the euro stayed higher. Gold has also repeatedly failed to break above $1,640 for over a month despite several recent rallies.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.5 percent at $1,617.70 an ounce by 2:39 p.m. EDT (1839 GMT), having earlier hit a high of $1,624.36. 

U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled up $5.60 at $1,619.40 an ounce, with trading volume about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

U.S. crude ends lower ahead of OPEC meeting

U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC policy meeting expected to leave the group's production target unchanged, while weak economic data added to the bearish sentiment. 

Saudi Arabia came under pressure from fellow OPEC producers to cut oil output to prevent a further slide in crude prices a day ahead of the group's Thursday policy meeting in Vienna.

After Saudi Arabia initially floated a proposal to lift OPEC's output target, Riyadh quickly dropped the idea and the 12-member producer group looks set to leave its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day.     

U.S. data showed retail sales fell for a second straight month in May and wholesale prices dropped the most in three years. The reports were expected to boost chances of further action by the Federal Reserve to shore up the flagging recovery. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude <CLN2> fell 70 cents, or 0.84 percent, to $82.62 a barrel, having traded from $82.15 to $84.01.

Nikkei seen trapped in range, investors eye events on horizon

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to tread in a tight range on Thursday after U.S. stocks stumbled on disappointing retail data and investors remain wary ahead of a Greek election that could alter the fate of the euro zone.   

Investors are also looking towards a two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting that concludes on Friday to see whether the bank expands its easing programme, but many believe the BOJ will hold fire ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.  

Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,530, down 0.7 percent from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 8,590 as U.S. stocks slipped after U.S. retail sales fell to a two-year low in May, the latest indicator of an economic slowdown in the world's biggest economy. 

The Nikkei was driven 0.6 percent higher on Wednesday to 8,587.84 by gains in a few large cap stocks with little overseas exposure as investors played it safe and cut back on

euro-related stocks. 

Euro zone finance ministers agreed to loan Spain 100 billion euros at the weekend to shore up its troubled banks, which briefly cheered global markets before doubts about the details

of the bailout set in.  

Seoul shares seen lower on U.S. data, Greek jitters

Seoul shares are poised to openlower on Thursday, with investors unsettled by more signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy and ahead of this weekend's Greek elections that could decide its fate in the euro zone. 

U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in May and wholesale prices dropped by the most in three years, raising chances of further action by the Federal Reserve to shore up the flagging recovery.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> rose 0.25 percent to close at 1,859.32 points on Wednesday. Thursday is quadruple witching day in Seoul, with stock options and futures as well as index options and future all set to expire, but analysts see only a limited impact as the market has been handling an extended run of settlements since April. 

HK stocks seen drifting lower, Esprit to resume trade

Hong Kong shares are poised to start weaker on Thursday after weak U.S. retail sales data added to concerns over the global economy, giving risk-averse investors little reason to make big bets. Trade in Esprit Holdings Ltd <0330.HK> will resume after the shares were suspended on Wednesday afternoon.  

The Hang Seng index <.HSI> closed up 0.8 percent on Wednesday in light trading, largely on the back of gains in Chinese insurers. The China Enterprises index <.HSCE> of top locally listed mainland firms closed up 1.5 percent. 

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.7 percent and South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> had lost 0.1 percent as of 0045 GMT. 

Source : Reuters