Senin, 23 April 2012

Gold Stabil di $1,640


 Emas Stabil Diatas $1,640Emas bergerak dekat angka $1,640 hari Senin, setelah anjlok sebanyak 1% di pekan sebelumnya, saat investor menantikan data aktivitas manufaktur China yang mungkin akan membantu memberikan petunjuk untuk pergerakan pasar.
Spot emas nyaris tidak bergerak di $1,641.40.

Kontrak emas AS diperdagangkan nyaris flat di angka $1,642.50.
Investor akan mengawasi data survey manufaktur China HSBC untuk melihat kondisi atas perekonomian di AS.
Para negara-negara besar dunia sepakat untuk memberikanb pinjaman yang lebih besar kepada IMF untuk melindungi ekonomi global dari krisis hutang zona Eropa.

Data China : sinyal untuk UERO


Euro rally ke level tertinggi dalam dua pekan versus dollar pada hari Jumat (20/04), pasca rilis data kepercayaan bisnis Jerman yang diluar perkiraan. Angka melambung ke level tinggi sembilan bulan. Hal ini langsung mendorong minat resiko investor. 
Melihat dari pergerakan mingguan, EUR/USD bergerak turun 1.3180 vs. 1.3210 hari Jumat malam. Hari ini (23/04) level tinggi euo di 1.3209 dan terus bergerak di kisaran 1.3200. Level resistance kuat di 1.3265, jelas Valeria Bednarik, kepala analis FXstreet.com. Level support di 1.3185, 1.3160 dan 1.3130.
Saat ini pasar menunggu rilis data aktifitas manufaktur China dari HSBC pukul 09.30 WIB. Didasari sentimen pekan lalu, negara-negara maju dan berkembang sepakat untuk mendorong IMF untuk melipat gandakan bantuannya bagi krisis utang Eropa.

Nikkei 225 : Respon Positif


Sebagian besar bursa saham Asia mengalami kemerosotan hari Senin, tetapi penguatan untuk perusahaan-perusahaan eksportir membantu bursa sahamNikkei bergerak naik menjelang data manufaktur China yang akan rilis hari ini.

Indeks KOSPI dan S&P/ASX 200 masing-masing mengalami kejatuhan sebesar 0.2%, tetapi Nikkei justru naik 0.7%.

Awal pergerakan indeks bursa saham yang masih mixed mengikuti bagusnya data earnings AS dari Microsofot Corp dan General Electric Co, membawa indeks Dow Industrials dan S&P500 bergerak naik hari Jumat kemarin, bahkan setelah terjadinya kejatuhan saham Apple Inc yang membawa indeks bursa saham Nasdaq terseret ke teritori negatif.

Minggu, 22 April 2012

Fundamental Analysis, April 20th, 2012


Euro climbs vs U.S. dollar, yen in volatile trade

The euro climbed against the dollar on Thursday in volatile trading, snapping two days of losses, with the single currency boosted by institutional buying to adjust short positions following generally solid Spanish bond auctions this week.  

News that the International Monetary Fund has secured commitments of about $320 billion in funding to help shield member economies from the debt crisis in Europe gave the euro.additional support, some analysts said. Analysts also talked of large repatriations of euros by European banks to increase capital, which also bolstered the currency. 
   
Spain has ordered its battered banking sector to reinforce balance sheets as a correction in the housing market continues and the central bank forecasts lenders will need some 53.8 billion euros ($70.7 billion) to cushion against bad debt. But some doubt that amount will be enough. There is still a lot of skepticism in the market about the liquidity in the euro zone financial system and the sustainability of the region's debt. On the other hand, some institutional investors are less pessimistic and are willing to get out of their short positions and stay neutral.  

In late afternoon New York trading, the euro <EUR=> rose 0.1 percent to $1.3131 after earlier hitting a session low of $1.3068 with the session peak at $1.3164. Against the yen, the euro climbed 0.4 percent to 107.07 yen <EURJPY=>.

Weak data sends Wall St tumbling

U.S. stocks fell for a second straight day on Thursday as investors were discouraged by economic data and focused on negative corporate news. Concerns over European finances also clouded the outlook, as Spanish government bond yields rose after a disappointing debt auction and French yields rose on rumors, later denied, that the country's credit rating may be downgraded. 

Apple <AAPL.O> shares, down more than 3 percent, also weighed on the market.  Qualcomm Inc <QCOM.O> led technology stocks lower a day after it warned of trouble meeting demand for some of its chips, while Stanley Black & Decker <SWK.N> fell 7 percent to lead declines among industrials, the second-worst performing of the top 10 S&P 500 sectors. 

The big declines came amid a strong beginning to earnings season, confirmed Thursday by better-than-expected reports from Bank of America Corp <BAC.N>, Morgan Stanley <MS.N>, and eBay Inc <EBAY.O>.  Raising concerns about the economic outlook, new weekly U.S. claims for unemployment benefits were above expectations, factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region slowed sharply and home resales dropped in March for a second straight month. 

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 115.57 points, or 0.89 percent, to 12,917.18. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 11.72 points, or 0.85 percent, to 1,373.42. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> lost 29.87 points, or 0.99 percent, to 3,001.58.

Gold falls for fifth day, silver demand seen higher

Gold eased on Thursday as European debt jitters and worries over the U.S. job market extended the metal's losses for a fifth consecutive day.  Silver prices ended higher, as the head of metals research firm Thomson Reuters GFMS said silver sales for industrial applications, as well as for jewelry, coins, silverware and photography, should climb 3 to 5 percent this year.  

Bullion, which has tended to follow riskier assets, reversed earlier gains as Wall Street fell on market talk about a possible downgrade of France's top-notch debt rating later this year and disappointing U.S. jobless claims data. Gold has lost around $150 an ounce since late February after a strong run of U.S. economic data dashed hopes of further U.S. monetary easing. A recent drop of volume also reflects waning investor interest in the gold trade.  

Spot gold <XAU=> was down 0.2 percent at $1,638.80 an ounce by 2:11 p.m. EDT (1811 GMT), having traded as high as $1,654.90 an ounce. Gold has dropped around 2 percent during its five-day decline, its longest losing streak since January 2011.  

U.S. gold futures <GCM2> for June delivery settled up $1.80 an ounce at $1,641.40. The discrepancy between spot and future prices was due to a lower U.S. gold close on Wednesday.  Gold traders will now turn their attention to a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, after the end of a nervous Spanish government debt auction pressured gold and other assets.

Oil Declines as U.S. Jobless Claims, Home Sales Miss Esti

Oil declined in New York as more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits and sales of previously owned homes fell, adding to concern that the U.S. recovery is stalling. Futures dropped 0.4 percent after the Labor Department said jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 386,000 last week. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 370,000. Purchases fell 2.6 percent to a 4.48 million annual rate from 4.6 million in February, the National Association of Realtors reported in Washington. 

The jobless claims combined with the housing numbers are evidence that the economy is still struggling a bit, said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at futures brokerage PFGBest in Chicago. “The economy is growing but very uneven.

Crude oil for May delivery declined 40 cents to $102.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since April 10. Prices are down 5.4 percent from a year ago. Brent oil for June settlement increased 3 cents to end the session at $118 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. 

The European benchmark contract’s front-month premium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate for June delivery widened for a second day, reaching $15.28. The spread narrowed to $14.14 on April 17 based on settlement prices, the lowest level since Feb. 1.

Nikkei seen range-bound, risk-appetite clipped by euro fears

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to tread in a range on Friday after a Spanish bond auction failed to extinguish fears of a rerun of the euro zone debt crisis and as U.S. jobs data disappointed.  Market players said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 9,500 and 9,600 on thin volume, with investors remaining cautious ahead of an April 27 Bank of Japan meeting that will weigh up the need for further easing measures. 
 
Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 9,560, down 40 points, or 0.4 percent from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 9,600. 
 
Spain issued 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in 2- and 10-year bonds on Thursday, at the top end of the targeted amount and on solid demand, but yields still rose above paper issued in a January auction. The concern that the country could be unable to finance its own debt and worsen the euro zone debt crisis has recently spooked investors.  

U.S. stocks fell overnight following poor jobs data and disappointing earning results from several companies, including Qualcomm Inc <QCOM.0> and Stanley Black & Decker <SWK.N>.  Microsoft Corp's <MSFT.0> profit report beat forecasts and pushed the stock 2.7 percent higher in extended-hours trading.  The yen has eased over the past three days, with the dollar creeping up to 81.68 yen, nudging major exporters such as Toyota <7203.T> to outperform the index.  Strategists said the currency would be unlikely to weaken significantly before the BOJ meeting on April 27, when the central bank is widely expected to announce further monetary easing.

Seoul shares poised for fall; POSCO, KAI eyed

Seoul shares are poised for a weak start on Friday after U.S. stocks fell for a second day overnight, hit by weak labour market data and dismal corporate results, and as a debt sale by Spain failed to soothe worries about the country's finances. 
      
Raising concerns about the economic outlook, new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits declined only slightly last week and were well above economists' expectations. Other reports pointed to slowing factory activity and depressed home sales. 

Spain sold all the bonds it wanted at an auction on Thursday, but with rising yields, indicating growing concerns the government will not be able to ame its deficit. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> edged down 0.23 percent on Thursday, closing just below the psychologically significant 2,000 point level. The world's No.3 steelmaker POSCO <005490.KS> will be eyed ahead of its first quarter results, to be reported later in the day.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, April 23th, 2012


CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.3120-1.3300
Down
1.3360
1.3180

1.3240
1.3120
1.3300
1.3300
1.3120
USD/JPY
81.00-82.50
Up
82.50
81.00
81.50

82.50
81.00
82.00
80.50
GBP/USD
1.6020-1.6200
Down
1.6260
1.6080

1.6140
1.6020
1.6200
1.6200
1.6020
USD/CHF
0.9000-0.9180
Up
0.9180
0.9000
0.9060

0.9000-0.9180
0.9230
0.9120
0.8940
AUD/USD
1.0270-1.0450
Down
1.0510
1.0330

1.0390
1.0270
1.0450
1.0450
1.0270
NIKKEI
9470-9650
Up
9650
9470
9530

9650
9470
9590
9410
HANGSENG
20470-20650
Up
20650
20470
20530

20650
20470
20590
20410
KOSPI
261.30-263.10
Up
263.10
261.30
261.90

263.10
261.30
262.50
260.70
GOLD
1628.20-1652.20
Up
1652.20
1628.20
1636.20

1652.20
1628.20
1644.20
1620.20

Sabtu, 21 April 2012

Euro Cetak Kinerja Mingguan Terbaik Sejak Februari


Euro Cetak Kinerja Mingguan Terbaik Sejak FebruariBerlanjutnya apresiasi Euro terhadap Dollar AS pada hari Jumat telah menghantarkan mata uang tunggal mencatat kinerja mingguan terbaik sejak bulan Februari. Hal tersebut tidak terlepas dari solidnya hasil survey sentimen bisnis Jermanbulan April, yang mampu meredam sejenak kekhawatiran atas kondisi fiskal Spanyoldan ketidakpastian seputar pemilihan presiden Perancis hari Minggu nanti.
Hasil survey Ifo menunjukkan indeks iklim bisnis Jerman naik tipis menjadi 109,9 dari 109,8 pada bulan Maret, yang mementahkan ekspektasi penurunan ke 109,5. Data tersebut juga mengindikasikan jika ekonomi terbesar zona Euro masih mampu bertahan dari tekanan krisis hutang yang melanda kawasan itu.
Euro juga menuai dukungan dari pernyataan resmi G20 yang memperlihatkan komitmen kuat untuk membantu meningkatkan sumber daya pendanaan IMF menjadi lebih dari $400 milyar guna melawan krisis hutang Eropa.
"Kecemasan atas kenaikan yield obligasi Spanyol berhasil diredakan oleh kuatnya data Jerman dan komentar IMF," kata Steven Butler, direktur perdagangan forex pada Scotia Capital di Toronto. "Kendati saham telah bergerak pada arah yang benar dan investor melakukan buy on dips pada Euro, pemilu Perancis pada akhir pekan masih menyisakan resiko."

Wall Street Mix, Nasdaq Turun Untuk Minggu Ketiga


Wall Street Mix,  Nasdaq Turun Untuk Minggu Ketiga Bursa saham AS memangkas gain pada awal sesi untuk ditutup mix pada hari Jumat, namun Dow dan S&P masih ditutup naik untuk level mingguan, dipicu oleh sejumlah earnings yang bagus dan berita yang positif dari zona Eropa. "Perekonomian AS sedikit menguat dari setahun lalu," ucap Bob Doll, kepala strategis saham BlackRock. "Pertanyaan mengenai perekonomian AS atau situasi hutang Eropa menghentikan kenaiakn pasar, namun menurutku kita akan terus bergerak naik pada akhir tahun ini.”
Bursa saham bergerak naik turun sepanjang pekan seiring investor menyerap sejumlah data ekonomi yang lebih buruk dari pekiraan, kecemasan mengenai zona Eropa dan sejumlah laporan earnings yang bagus. “Ada pertikaian sepanjang pekan antara data makroekonomi dan earnings yang kuat,” ucap Lawrence Creatura, manajer portofolio pada Federated Investors. “Dan situasi di Eropa seperti cuaca, semakin diperhatikan semakin susah diprediksi.” “Sejumlah data makroekonomi yang buruk pekan ini menandakan kecemasan bagusnya earnings kuartal ini tidak dapat bertahan,” jelas Creatura. “Sejumlah investor curiga bahwa penguatan pada kuartal pertama hanya pinjaman dari kuartal selanjutnya terkait faktor cuaca.”

Data Sentimen Jerman Angkat Minyak


Data Sentimen Jerman Angkat  MinyakHarga minyak naik pada hari Jumat seiring membaiknya sentimen dunia usaha Jerman mengalahkan kecemasan mengenai krisis hutang zona Eropa. Sementara pelemahan dollar dan menguatnya bursa saham juga turut mendukung minyak. Minyak mencetak kenaikan sebesar 22 sen untuk level mingguan seiring berakhirnya masa kontrak minyak mentah AS bulan Mei, namun cukup jauh di bawah level tinggi harian seiring Wall Street terkoreksi. Data sentimen bisnis Jerman membantu mendorong euro ke level tinggi 2 pekan terhadap dollar dan pelemahan dollar serta menguatnya bursa saham mengangkat harga minyak.
"Investor fokus pada Ifo yang bagus dan itu meredakan kecemasan mengenai krisis hutang serta pelemahan dollar dan menguatnya bursa saham, ditambah aksi short covering jelang akhir pekan," ucap Gene McGillian, analis pada Tradition Energy di Stamford, Connecticut.

Emas Flat Fokus Pada Pertemuan Fed


Emas Flat; Fokus Pada Pertemuan Fed Emas tetap flat pada perdagangan sepi hari Jumat, menuju penurunan kedua dari 3 pekan terakhir seiring investor menahan diri menjelang pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve pekan depan. Emas menuju penurunan sebesar 1% pekan ini meski bertahan dalam range mingguan tersempit dalam lebih dari satu tahun.
Trader Option mengatakan bahwa harga emas dapat naik menuju level call strike dekat $1,650 menjelang berakhirnya masa kontrak options COMEX bulan Mei pekan depan. "Ada lebih dari 12,000 lots (1.2 juta ons) open interest untuk level strike $1,650 pada COMEX yang akan berakhir pekan depan," ucap analis emas TD Securities. "Ini akan menarik perhatian pasar dan itu artinya kemungkinan harga tidak akan berdeviasi secara signifikan hingga berakhirnya masa kontrak option."