| Date | Currency | Event | WIB | Consensus | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 14 | JPY | JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized | 6:50 | 6.1% | -2.1% | 6.0% |
| Mon Nov 14 | JPY | JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 6:50 | 1.5% | -0.5% | 1.5% |
| Mon Nov 14 | JPY | JPY Industrial Production (MoM) | 11:30 | -4.0% | -3.3% | |
| Mon Nov 14 | JPY | JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) | 11:30 | 2.4% | -3.6% | |
| Mon Nov 14 | EUR | EUR French Current Account (euros) | 14:45 | -2.9B | -4.0B | |
| Mon Nov 14 | CHF | CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) | 15:15 | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| Mon Nov 14 | CHF | CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) | 15:15 | -1.8% | -2.0% | -1.8% |
| Mon Nov 14 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) | 17:00 | 3.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Mon Nov 14 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | 17:00 | -2.2% | 1.2% | -2.0% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 13:30 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) | 14:00 | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) | 14:00 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) | 14:45 | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) | 16:00 | -3.152b | -1.84b | |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR Italian Trade Balance EU (euros) | 16:00 | -0.766b | -0.008b | |
| Tue Nov 15 | GBP | GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) | 16:30 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tue Nov 15 | GBP | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 16:30 | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| Tue Nov 15 | GBP | GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) | 16:30 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tue Nov 15 | GBP | GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) | 16:30 | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Tue Nov 15 | GBP | GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) | 16:30 | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) | 17:00 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) | 17:00 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) | 17:00 | 33.0 | 38.4 | 34.2 |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) | 17:00 | -52.0 | -48.3 | -55.2 |
| Tue Nov 15 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) | 17:00 | 0.3B | -3.4B | 2.9B |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Producer Price Index (MoM) | 20:30 | -0.1% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 20:30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Producer Price Index (YoY) | 20:30 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 20:30 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Advance Retail Sales | 20:30 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Retail Sales Less Autos | 20:30 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Empire Manufacturing | 20:30 | -2.0 | -8.48 | 0.61 |
| Tue Nov 15 | USD | USD Business Inventories | 22:00 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Wed Nov 16 | JPY | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision | 10:30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0-0.1% |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) | 16:00 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) | 16:00 | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (MoM) | 16:00 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) | 16:00 | 3.8% | 3.8% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | GBP | GBP Jobless Claims Change | 16:30 | 20.0K | 17.5K | |
| Wed Nov 16 | GBP | GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) | 16:30 | 2.5% | 2.8% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | GBP | GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) | 16:30 | 1.6% | 1.8% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | GBP | GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) | 16:30 | 8.2% | 8.1% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) | 17:00 | 1.6% | ||
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) | 17:00 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 17:00 | 3.0% | 3.0% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD MBA Mortgage Applications | 19:00 | 10.3% | ||
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) | 20:30 | 0.0% | 0.3% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) | 20:30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 20:30 | 3.6% | 3.9% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) | 20:30 | 2.1% | 2.0% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. | 20:30 | 226.52 | 226.89 | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. | 20:30 | 226.14 | ||
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Net Long-term TIC Flows | 21:00 | $57.9B | ||
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Total Net TIC Flows | 21:00 | $89.6B | ||
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Industrial Production | 21:15 | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD Capacity Utilization | 21:15 | 77.6% | 77.4% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | USD | USD NAHB Housing Market Index | 22:00 | 18 | 18 | |
| Thu Nov 17 | GBP | GBP Retail Sales (MoM) | 16:30 | -0.2% | 0.6% | |
| Wed Nov 16 | GBP | GBP Retail Sales (YoY) | 16:30 | 0.0% | 0.6% | |
| Thu Nov 17 | GBP | GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) | 16:30 | -0.2% | 0.7% | |
| Thu Nov 17 | GBP | GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) | 16:30 | -0.1% | 0.4% | |
| Thu Nov 17 | CHF | CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) | 17:00 | -54.4 | ||
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Housing Starts | 20:30 | 600K | 658K | |
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Housing Starts (MoM) | 20:30 | 15.0% | ||
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Building Permits | 20:30 | 603K | 589K | |
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Building Permits (MoM) | 20:30 | -5.8% | ||
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Initial Jobless Claims | 20:30 | 395K | 390K | |
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Continuing Claims | 20:30 | 3643K | 3615K | |
| Thu Nov 17 | USD | USD Philadelphia Fed. | 22:00 | 8.0 | 8.7 |
Rabu, 16 November 2011
World Economic Indicator
Fundamental Analysis, November 16th 2011
Euro falls for 2nd straight day on contagion fears
The euro slipped against the dollar for a second straight day and hit a five-week low against the yen on Tuesday, with more selling expected on fears the euro zone's debt crisis is spreading across the region.
Yields on Italian benchmark 10-year bonds <IT10YT=TWEB> climbed back above the key 7 percent level widely deemed unsustainable and Spanish borrowing costs rose ahead of the launch of a new 10-year bond on Thursday. [GVD/EUR]
In a worrying sign of contagion, the spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.
Adding to bearish sentiment, the German ZEW survey showed analyst and investor sentiment slumped in November, the ninth monthly decline in a row. It said political and economic problems in Greece and Italy had raised uncertainty about the future.
"The collective markets' greatest fear has materialized: contagion is now reality," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.com. "The seven percent threshold was supposed to be the line in the sand that the supranational European body would not allow Italian yields to cross, and for the second time in less than a week, Italian 10-year bonds were above this level."
Wall St rises on U.S. economy, progress in Italy
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, boosted by swift steps toward formation of a new Italian government and stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy.
But despite Tuesday's advance and after posting gains in five of the last six weeks, the S&P 500 is flat for the year and trapped in a tight range. The index could find tough technical resistance to continue its rise on Wednesday.
Markets have been jittery as the euro zone's debt crisis is in danger of spiraling out of control. Borrowing costs spiked again in Italy. France, until now not viewed as problematic, also was hit by higher bond yields.
Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister-designate, is expected to complete the process of forming a government in less than three days, much faster than normal, as Italy races to ward off a major financial and political crisis that has pushed its borrowing costs to untenable levels.
U.S. retail sales rose broadly in October, and a gauge of manufacturing in New York state advanced in November, suggesting the economy could maintain momentum through the fourth quarter and pushing back recession fears.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 17.18 points, or 0.14 percent, to 12,096.16. The S&P 500 <.SPX> rose 6.03 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,257.81. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> added 28.98 points, or 1.09 percent, to 2,686.20.
Gold trades flat, euro jitters help recoup losses
Gold traded flat on Tuesday, recouping initial losses, fueled by worries over a euro zone economic slowdown and fears that France could be sucked into its spiraling debt crisis.
Bullion largely ignored news billionaire financier John Paulson slashed a third of its ETF bullion holdings in the third quarter. Analysts said Paulson's move was not a sign that hedge fund managers were abandoning an upbeat view on gold amid global economic uncertainty.
Although gold is traditionally regarded as a safe haven, it has increasingly moved in tandem with other riskier assets due to investor jitters. Shares on Wall Street turned higher, up less than 1 percent after initially hit by jitters over Europe's debt crisis. U.S. gold for December delivery <GCZ1> settled up $3.80 at $1,782.20.
US crude ends above $99,16-wk high, on economic data
U.S. crude oil futures closed above $99 a barrel on Tuesday to post a 16-week high on positive U.S. retail sales and New York regional manufacturing data that signalled a better outlook for oil demand.
Data showing an expansion of the French and German economy in the third quarter was also supportive.
But doubts that new leaders in Italy and Greece, both technocrats without domestic political bases could carry out tough economic reforms kept traders cautious and that limited the day's gains for oil futures.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October as strong receipts from motor vehicle and building material dealers offset the drag from service stations.
Ahead of weekly U.S. petroleum inventory reports, a Reuters poll of analysts forecast that domestic crude stocks fell 1.2 million barrels last week. [EIA/S]
Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, slid 2.1 million barrels and gasolines stocks edged down 700,000 barrels while refinery utilization ticked up 0.4 percentage points, the poll also showed.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude <CLZ1> settled at $99.37 a barrel, gaining $1.23 or 1.25 percent, after hitting a session high of $99.84.
Nikkei could edge up but trade seen rangebound
The Nikkei average could edge up on Wednesday after Wall Street shrugged off rising fears about European debt contagion, but is seen likely to stay mired in recent ranges until investors have reason to be confident the euro zone crisis is contained.
In the U.S. market on Tuesday, technology and industrial shares were the best performers after upbeat U.S. economic data, which bodes well for their counterparts in Asia.
But rising yields in European debt markets suggest the region's woes are not over yet. The spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.
The Nikkei <.N225> is expected to trade in a range of 8,500 to 8,650 on Wednesday, strategists said. Nikkei futures in Chicago ended at 8,545, down 15 points from their Osaka close of 8,560. <JNIc1>.
On Tuesday, the Nikkei fell 0.7 percent to 8,541.93, holding above 8,500 throughout the session but giving back much of the previous day's gains. The broader Topix index <.TOPX> lost 0.7 percent to 730.91.
Seoul shares seen higher; GS Holdings, tech issues eyed
Seoul shares may open higher on Wednesday buoyed by stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy, with eyes on GS Holdings <078930.KS> after news GS Caltex has successfully received numerous bids for a major stake in its unit.
The U.S. economy showed signs it maintained speed into the fourth quarter as retail sales increased in October and a gauge of manufacturing in New York state rose this month for the first time since May.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ended down 0.88 percent at 1,886.12 points on Tuesday.
HK shares seen higher, but gains likely capped
Hong Kong shares are set to edge higher at Wednesday's open following Wall Street gains, but turnover could stay weak with the situation in Europe keeping investors on the sidelines and trading rangebound.
Retail and manufacturing data on Tuesday that suggested the U.S. economy was recovering could lend support to shares of exporters with sizeable exposure to the American market, such as Li & Fung Ltd <0494.HK>.
On Tuesday, weakness in financials dragged the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> down 0.8 percent to 19,348.4 points, with the benchmark struggling to recover a 1,000-point plunge last Thursday.
Short selling interest accounted for 6.3 percent of total turnover in Hong Kong on Tuesday, the lowest this month, illustrative of weak investor appetite as the situation in Europe drags on unabated.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei <.N225> was trading up 0.1 percent at 8,549.7 points, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> was trading up 0.8 percent at 1,901.7 points at 0055 GMT.
Source : Reuters
The euro slipped against the dollar for a second straight day and hit a five-week low against the yen on Tuesday, with more selling expected on fears the euro zone's debt crisis is spreading across the region.
Yields on Italian benchmark 10-year bonds <IT10YT=TWEB> climbed back above the key 7 percent level widely deemed unsustainable and Spanish borrowing costs rose ahead of the launch of a new 10-year bond on Thursday. [GVD/EUR]
In a worrying sign of contagion, the spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.
Adding to bearish sentiment, the German ZEW survey showed analyst and investor sentiment slumped in November, the ninth monthly decline in a row. It said political and economic problems in Greece and Italy had raised uncertainty about the future.
"The collective markets' greatest fear has materialized: contagion is now reality," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.com. "The seven percent threshold was supposed to be the line in the sand that the supranational European body would not allow Italian yields to cross, and for the second time in less than a week, Italian 10-year bonds were above this level."
Wall St rises on U.S. economy, progress in Italy
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, boosted by swift steps toward formation of a new Italian government and stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy.
But despite Tuesday's advance and after posting gains in five of the last six weeks, the S&P 500 is flat for the year and trapped in a tight range. The index could find tough technical resistance to continue its rise on Wednesday.
Markets have been jittery as the euro zone's debt crisis is in danger of spiraling out of control. Borrowing costs spiked again in Italy. France, until now not viewed as problematic, also was hit by higher bond yields.
Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister-designate, is expected to complete the process of forming a government in less than three days, much faster than normal, as Italy races to ward off a major financial and political crisis that has pushed its borrowing costs to untenable levels.
U.S. retail sales rose broadly in October, and a gauge of manufacturing in New York state advanced in November, suggesting the economy could maintain momentum through the fourth quarter and pushing back recession fears.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 17.18 points, or 0.14 percent, to 12,096.16. The S&P 500 <.SPX> rose 6.03 points, or 0.48 percent, to 1,257.81. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> added 28.98 points, or 1.09 percent, to 2,686.20.
Gold trades flat, euro jitters help recoup losses
Gold traded flat on Tuesday, recouping initial losses, fueled by worries over a euro zone economic slowdown and fears that France could be sucked into its spiraling debt crisis.
Bullion largely ignored news billionaire financier John Paulson slashed a third of its ETF bullion holdings in the third quarter. Analysts said Paulson's move was not a sign that hedge fund managers were abandoning an upbeat view on gold amid global economic uncertainty.
Although gold is traditionally regarded as a safe haven, it has increasingly moved in tandem with other riskier assets due to investor jitters. Shares on Wall Street turned higher, up less than 1 percent after initially hit by jitters over Europe's debt crisis. U.S. gold for December delivery <GCZ1> settled up $3.80 at $1,782.20.
US crude ends above $99,16-wk high, on economic data
U.S. crude oil futures closed above $99 a barrel on Tuesday to post a 16-week high on positive U.S. retail sales and New York regional manufacturing data that signalled a better outlook for oil demand.
Data showing an expansion of the French and German economy in the third quarter was also supportive.
But doubts that new leaders in Italy and Greece, both technocrats without domestic political bases could carry out tough economic reforms kept traders cautious and that limited the day's gains for oil futures.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October as strong receipts from motor vehicle and building material dealers offset the drag from service stations.
Ahead of weekly U.S. petroleum inventory reports, a Reuters poll of analysts forecast that domestic crude stocks fell 1.2 million barrels last week. [EIA/S]
Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, slid 2.1 million barrels and gasolines stocks edged down 700,000 barrels while refinery utilization ticked up 0.4 percentage points, the poll also showed.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude <CLZ1> settled at $99.37 a barrel, gaining $1.23 or 1.25 percent, after hitting a session high of $99.84.
Nikkei could edge up but trade seen rangebound
The Nikkei average could edge up on Wednesday after Wall Street shrugged off rising fears about European debt contagion, but is seen likely to stay mired in recent ranges until investors have reason to be confident the euro zone crisis is contained.
In the U.S. market on Tuesday, technology and industrial shares were the best performers after upbeat U.S. economic data, which bodes well for their counterparts in Asia.
But rising yields in European debt markets suggest the region's woes are not over yet. The spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.
The Nikkei <.N225> is expected to trade in a range of 8,500 to 8,650 on Wednesday, strategists said. Nikkei futures in Chicago ended at 8,545, down 15 points from their Osaka close of 8,560. <JNIc1>.
On Tuesday, the Nikkei fell 0.7 percent to 8,541.93, holding above 8,500 throughout the session but giving back much of the previous day's gains. The broader Topix index <.TOPX> lost 0.7 percent to 730.91.
Seoul shares seen higher; GS Holdings, tech issues eyed
Seoul shares may open higher on Wednesday buoyed by stronger-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy, with eyes on GS Holdings <078930.KS> after news GS Caltex has successfully received numerous bids for a major stake in its unit.
The U.S. economy showed signs it maintained speed into the fourth quarter as retail sales increased in October and a gauge of manufacturing in New York state rose this month for the first time since May.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ended down 0.88 percent at 1,886.12 points on Tuesday.
HK shares seen higher, but gains likely capped
Hong Kong shares are set to edge higher at Wednesday's open following Wall Street gains, but turnover could stay weak with the situation in Europe keeping investors on the sidelines and trading rangebound.
Retail and manufacturing data on Tuesday that suggested the U.S. economy was recovering could lend support to shares of exporters with sizeable exposure to the American market, such as Li & Fung Ltd <0494.HK>.
On Tuesday, weakness in financials dragged the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> down 0.8 percent to 19,348.4 points, with the benchmark struggling to recover a 1,000-point plunge last Thursday.
Short selling interest accounted for 6.3 percent of total turnover in Hong Kong on Tuesday, the lowest this month, illustrative of weak investor appetite as the situation in Europe drags on unabated.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei <.N225> was trading up 0.1 percent at 8,549.7 points, while the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> was trading up 0.8 percent at 1,901.7 points at 0055 GMT.
Source : Reuters
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)