Apocalyptic Bernanke: Raise The Debt Ceiling Or Else

 to an audience that included Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke called the status quo“unsustainable” while warning that failing to raise the debt ceiling could have disastrous consequences.  A few weeks from the end of QE2, Bernanke gave no hint as to the path for monetary policy after June 30.

“Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option,” warned Bernanke.  The bearded academic laid his grain of salt for the ongoing deficit debate that is currently dividing Washington.

Weighing in, he told policymakers that “the debt limit is the wrong tool” for the important job of “forc[ing] some necessary and difficult fiscal policy adjustments.”

In what appeared to be a comment directed at the Republican Party, Bernanke said “failing to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would be self-defeating if the objective is to chart a course toward a better fiscal situation for our nation.”  Referencing the Hippocratic Oath, he asked policymakers to not do harm and “avoid unnecessary actions or threats that risk shaking the confidence of investors in the ability and willingness of the U.S. government to pay its bills.” (Read Dodd-Frank Failing On Volcker Rule, Derivatives, Credit Rating Agencies).

A little more apocalyptic than usual, the Fed chairman urged both parties to leave behind their bickering and solve the problem at hand.  “Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget must occur at some point,” he said. (ReadBernanke To Rep. Paul Ryan: QE2 Created 600,000 Jobs).

Those adjustments could come from a “careful and deliberative process” or as “a rapid and much more painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis in an environment of rising interest rates, collapsing confidence and asset values, and a slowing economy.”

The choice, Bernanke, said, “is ours to make,” but the central banker also made it clear that using the debt ceiling debate as an opportunity to draw a line in the sand on issues that have been a long time coming and require a long-term solution is misguided.

Bernanke only used the word default once.  Speaking of the possibility of prioritizing Treasury payments to meet principal and interest payments on debt outstanding, the Fed Chairman said the Treasury would soon find it very hard, if not impossible, to continue paying for Social Security, Medicare, and the military.

Failing to raise the debt ceiling would effectively amount to a perfect storm, hitting the U.S. economy where it hurts, according to Bernanke.  It would “cause severe disruptions in financial markets,” harm the reserve status of the U.S. dollar (along with the “special role of Treasury securities in global markets”), lead to credit downgrades, and “create fundamental doubts about the creditworthiness of the United States.”

In other words, Bernanke told lawmakers to stop fighting and raise the budget deficit, while keeping the spending coming in the immediate term.  In order to keep the dollar’s reserve currency status and allow it to continue borrowing at rates that only the U.S. can have (given its debt level), the policy should be aimed at solving problems in the short to long-term, finding “substantial savings in the 10-year budget window.”  Bernanke, therefore, was just giving his support for those who want to raise the debt ceiling.

Bernanke Admits He’s Clueless On Economy’s Soft Patch

His second post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke touched on every topic, admitting that the recovery was weaker than expected and that beyond temporary factors like supply chain disruptions in Japan and high energy prices, he was at a loss as to what was causing the soft patch.  In a Q&A session with reporters, Bernanke said a disorderly default in Greece would have significant effects on the U.S. economy, while adding that the Fed still had several tools at its disposal to pump up the economy.

If the central bank actually does have more in its tool kit, they will be deployed in a weakening economy. Just before Bernanke spoke the Fed issued its revised forecast, dulling growth estimates for 2011 and now calling for gross domestic product to expand between 2.7% and 2.9%.

Bernanke’s statements rattled the markets, which had remained virtually flat for most of the day.  Equities sold-off as the Chairman began talking, with all three major U.S. equity indices closing at their lows for the day.  The Dow shed 80 points or 0.7% to close at 12,110 in New York, while the S&P 500 fell 8 points or 0.7% to 1,287; the Nasdaq lost 18 points or 0.7% to 2,669.

On the bond front, yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit their lows for the day just before the release of the FOMC state, only to bounce up to a few basis points from 3%, marking a sell-off as prices move opposite yields, and playing into Bill Gross‘ investment thesis. (Read PIMCO’s Bill Gross Shorts Treasuries As Experts Eye Inflation).

With markets at a crossroads, amid a cooling economic recovery and a dangerous Greek crisis threatening the euro and the global economy, reporters grilled Bernanke and asked many of the right questions.

Brutally honest, Bernanke admitted that he had no clue what was actually causing the current fragility in the U.S. economic recovery.  While theFOMC statement assigned blame outside of the U.S., pointing at Japan along with rising food and oil prices, Bernanke was put on the spot by a reporter who noted the inconsistency behind that explanation and a lowering of long term forecasts.  Bernanke took the hit, admitting only some of the factors were temporary and that he didn’t know exactly what was causing the slowdown, but that it would persist.  “Growth,” said Bernanke, “will return into 2012.” (Read No Recovery Possible While U.S. Consumer Continues Deleveraging).

“Bernanke was just summing up what has happened in the markets, what has been priced in,” explained Nick Kalivas of MF Global.  “But the Fed has taken extraordinary measures to support the economy, they have done what they can and monetary policy isn’t a solution for everything,” added Kalivas, pointing at problems with the fiscal situation and the debt ceiling debate.

While Wednesday’s remarks came as little surprise, the blunt discussion of inflation and slowing economic growth offered little inspiration to load up on risk assets like equities.

The Fed chairman was explicit about the situation in Washington, directly slapping Republicans in the face saying “I don’t think sharp immediate cuts in the deficit would bring more jobs.”  Having made clear before that Congress should raise the debt ceiling, Bernanke explained budgetary problems are very long run in nature.

Could 'Rip-Off Britain' Really Print More Money?

With Jean-Claude Trichet warning that the debt crisis lights are flashing red and Ben Bernanke telling investors the US slowdown is temporary, but could have longer lasting effects, Mervyn King at the Bank of England is discussing pumping more money into the UK economy.

Minutes from the last meeting of the BoE’s monetary policy committee showed that despite two members wanting to hike rates, others are considering another round of quantitative easing.

“For some of these members, it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialized” said the statement from the Bank of England.

The biggest concern for the UK central bank's policy committee appears to be the lack of consumer spending that has led to uncertainty over the level of spare capacity in the economy and the subsequent direction of inflationary pressures.

Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Securities believes this uncertainty leaves Mervyn King and his team in a difficult position.

“It is supposedly what the MPC wants to see as the chief element in a rebalancing of the UK economy away from domestic demand towards net exports,” said Lewis in a research note.

“If the MPC were to revert to its pre-2007 strategy of pumping up the economy whenever domestic demand falls below the trajectory that the Bank’s forecasting equations indicate as consistent with achieving the inflation target, its action would tend to frustrate the necessary rebalancing,” said Lewis.

Inflation Greater Challenge

Given the UK has historically had to fight inflation rather than worry about falling prices, Lewis questions if deflation could be a real threat.

“In Rip-off Britain, where price gouging is not unknown, central bankers have, in fact, experienced much more testing challenges in containing inflation than in heading off deflation,” he said. 

Risks to the UK come from both sides of the Atlantic. The US slowdown and Greek debt crisis have intensified since the BoE last met and this is causing concerns.

“Since the June MPC meeting, the scale of these worries has, if anything, grown with the Greek government’s next bailout tranche still balanced on a knife edge as it battles to pass austerity measures," Victoria Cadman, an analyst at Investec in a research note following the BoE minutes.

"The run of US data has, on the whole, also continued to soften throughout the month,” Cadman said.

With a number of factors clouding the UK growth picture Cadman said it will take time for the true health of the British economy to become clear.

"The likely, but as yet undefined in size, drag to second quarter growth resulting from the Royal Wedding holiday, the increase in oil prices earlier this year, and supply chain disruptions from the Japanese tsunami, complicate the committee’s assessment considerably,” she wrote.

With austerity measures weighing on sentiment for Britain’s millions of public sector workers and strikes on the way there will be little help for the UK economy from Chancellor George Osborne who consistently said there is no plan B on attempting to reduce the deficit.

Despite this uncertainty Cadman sees little chance of the quantitative easing debate at the BoE being anything more than a debate.

“Our central view however is for a return to somewhat more robust UK and US growth in the third quarter of this year. We therefore consider that while the committee may be happy to add the prospect of QE more centrally back into its policy debate, the prospect of further QE remains unlikely,” she explained.

Like Cadman, Lewis can see little reason for pumping more money into the system on monetary policy grounds but questions if the motivation for debating more QE could be the banks, not the consumers.

“They would not easily justify such action on monetary grounds. As the minutes state, nominal consumption has continued to rise at a substantial rate, albeit largely on account of inflation, despite weakness in broad money growth,” Lewis wrote.

“There are no surprises there, since only the crudest of monetarists would look for a close correlation. MPC members, though, seem to be turning their attention to problems of banks’ capital-raising, where QE is widely regarded to have been helpful in the past,” he added.

Bernanke 'Quietly Risk Negative': Dennis Gartman

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement on expectations for the US economy on Wednesday was "quietly risk negative," Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, told CNBC Thursday.

After a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed slashed its growth forecast for this year and said unemployment will still remain high.

"The most important statement that he made was that there will be at least two more FOMC meetings before a change in interest rates. That’s gloomy," Gartman said.

"He was less than optimistic, but I don’t think really pessimistic."

The Fed now predicts that the economy will grow between 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent this year, down from its April estimate of between 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent.

Bernanke said that interest rates would remain at current levels for at least two more meetings of the FOMC.

"As the Fed Chairman became more risk-averse, so did the markets," Gartman said. "If you look at the US balance sheet, it’s actually doing quite well. Corporate America is replete with cash, so if you are a value investor, you would just want to go out and buy everything."

Gartman is not optimistic about employment figures in the US.

"Businessmen and women see Obama Care and other left-wing measures, and they are absolutely unwilling to add more employees to their businesses," he said.

He added that he will keep his gold holdings for the moment, and said: "I’ve been long on gold for a long time and I’m not going to change that at this point."

The British pound is not looking great at the moment, according to Gartman. "I am short on sterling. I think the comments coming out of the MPC are to be taken seriously."

"It is the one to sell if you’re selling anything in Europe. Until the market tells me I’m wrong, I’ll continue to do the same," he added.

Minat Resiko Tinggi, Sterling Bidik 1.6000

 terus melemah terhadap greenback selama sesi Asia, terkait pernyataan BoE kemarin (22/06) yang memicu pelemahan.

Secara teknikal, “grafik 1 dan 4 jam masih menunjukkan sinyal pelemahan dan belum menunjukkan sinyal penguatan. Mata uang dapat terus melemah jika minat resiko masih mendominasi,” kata Valeria Bednarik, kepala analis FXstreet.com. GBP/USD  melemah ke area 1.6035, turun 30 poin dari harga pembukaan.

Level support di 1.6020, 1.5970 dan 1.5920. Level resistance di 1.6070, 1.6110 dan 1.6150. 

USD Kuat

Logam mulia tertekan oleh penguatan USD meski pelemahan tampaknya hanya bersifat terbatas terkait tindakan investor untuk  mencari aset yang lebih aman.

Emas diperdagangkan di range sempit di kisaran $1,546.10/ons dan $1,548.69/ons. Terakhir di $1,546.40/ons, turun $1.60 dari level penutupan sebelumnya. EUR/USD melemah sampai 1.4285 dari sebelumnya di level 1.4354. Daya tarik emas sebagai safe-haven bagaimanapun masih ada karena logam mulia merupakan alat lindung nilai yang cenderung lebih aman saat kondisi ekonomi tidak menentu.

Spot perak di $36.18/ons, turun 16 sen dari level penutupan.

Emas Dalam Sterling Raih Diatas 968 Pounds

 dalam denominasi Sterling naik ke level tingginya selama ini diatas 968 Pounds hari Kamis seiring mata uang Inggris anjlok ke rendahnya 3 minggu di Asia setelah BoE menaikkan prospek penawaran stimulus tambahan.

Hasil pertemuan BoE bulan Juni hari Rabu memberikan sinyal suku bunga yang cenderung tetap dari rekor rendahnya 0.5% tahun ini dan menandakan kemungkinan lebih besar bahwa BoE memilih adanya QE lanjutan, kontras dengan dengan Feds dari AS yang tidak memberikan sinyal dukungan moneter.

 

Harga emas dalam Sterling menyentuh rekor tingginya di 968.64 Pounds per ons.

Euro Analysis : Terlihat Melemah, Uji Support 1.4285

EURUSD terlihat mengakhiri uptrend setelah menembus trendline. Saat ini tengah menguji support

di 1.4285 namun sinyal bullish dari stochastic dan CCI membuka peluang koreksi hingga 1.4363. 

Waspadai tembusnya support di 1.4285 karena berpotensi diikuti oleh pergerakan turun menuju 1.4189.

Sterling analisa : Melemah Signifikan, Koreksi ke 1.6109

Sterling melemah signifikan terhadap USD hingga ke 1.6016. Stochastic dan CCI mengindikasikan

sinyal bulish sehingga kemungkinan akan terjadi koreksi hingga ke 1.6109. Waspadai tembusnya

support di 1.6016 karena akan berpotensi diikuti oleh pergerakan menuju 1.5958.

Pasar Eropa Berhati-Hati Jelang FOMC

Eropa tertekan dalam sesi perdagangan hari Rabu meskipun pemerintah telah berhasil mempertahankan kepercayaan perlemen Yunani. Investor nampaknya masih skeptis mengingat belum ditemukannya solusi tepat untuk masalah hutang Yunani yang masih menyisakan ancaman default. Pasar juga tengah menantikan pengumuman hasil pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve AS yang diharapkan dapat memberikan gambaran yang lebih jelas tentang laju pemulihan ekonomi serta memberikan petunjuk tentang langkah-langkah stimulus moneter.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 melemah sekitar 0,4%, sedangkan indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing harus kehilangan 0,11% dan 0,56%. Di Inggris, FTSE bergerak 0,55% lebih rendah dalam 2 jam pertama perdagangan.

Yunani maish tetap menjadi fokus meskipun voting kepercayaan kemarin berhasil dimenangkan pemerintahan George Papandreu, namun pemerintah harus segera menghadapi tantangan lain dimana mereka harus berjuang meloloskan rencana langkah-langkah penghematan baru dalam voting parlemen 28 Juni mendatang guna memastikan pencairan paket bailout tahap berikutnya dari Uni Eropa dan IMF.

Sementara Federal Reserve dijadwalkan akan merilis keputusan kebijakan moneternya hari ini, yang telah mendorong pasar Eropa untuk lebih berhati-hati.

Bernanke to Walk a Fine Line on Inflation, Growth

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to announce a major change in monetary policy at his second-ever news conference later Wednesday, but investors will hang on his every word for clues on whether the Fed will scale back its presence in financial markets, analysts said.

"I don't think there's going to be any surprise… I don't really see any major changes coming up right now, I think they're going to see how the data are evolving," former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner told CNBC.

The central bank will release quarterly economic forecasts and analysts expect them to be revised lower to reflect the recent weakness, but they said Bernanke will be quick to say he sees an acceleration in the recovery.

"I'm sure he'll predict one," John Wraith, fixed income strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), told CNBC. "I'm sure he won't announce any reversal of the stimulus."

The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to take the formal decision to end the second round of quantitative easing – a program under which it pumps liquidity in markets by buying assets – at the end of June but to leave the reinvestment policy in place, according to analysts from Barclays Capital.

"This could be accomplished by changing the language in the statement from 'will purchase' to 'will complete' its purchases of $600 billion in Treasury securities and 'will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings,'" they wrote in a market note.

Some market observers said that weak jobs data could prompt the Fed to relax monetary conditions even further, but Kroszner said the central bank will need to see the employment report in July to decide whether the weakness was transitory or it indicated a downward trend.

"I think there's a belief there's an underlying strength in the economy," he said, pointing to the fact that "productivity numbers have been very good" and investment in equipment and software was "pretty good."

Yields on the 10-year US Treasury note stayed below 3 percent, in part pushed down by worries regarding the debt crisis in the euro zone, and some analysts have said this shows the Fed can brush aside fears of price rises because of its extra-loose monetary policy.

"The bond market is telling you there's no worry about inflation out there," Gary Baker, head of European equities strategy at BAML global research, told CNBC.

Inflation Target?

The Fed's statement is due at 12:30 pm New York time and Bernanke's news conference is expected to start at 2:15 pm.

"We expect the Fed to revise down its GDP projections for 2011 and likely raise the core inflation forecast, which should not come as a surprise," the analysts from Barclays Capital wrote.

"We will monitor the press conference to see if the committee's characterization of inflation risk has changed given the trend in core inflation," they added.

The consumer price index for all items excluding volatile food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008, while overall inflation was 0.2 percent month-on-month.

The statement is likely to say that headline inflation was pushed higher by a rise in commodity prices but that these have fallen back somewhat and inflation expectations remain stable, Barclays Capital analysts wrote.

"Several FOMC members have made comments in support of a formal inflation target. We expect the committee to discuss this topic in depth during its June meeting and would not be surprised to hear the chairman characterize the committee's views on the adoption of an explicit inflation target," they added.

Gold : Uji Kembali Resistance di 1,548.55, Incar 1,557.39

Emas kembali menguji resistance dikisaran 1548.55. Secara teknikal pecahnya level resistance tersebut
dapat memicu penguatan menuju area 1557.39. Namun waspadai kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic
yang saat ini berada dalam area overbought dan memungkinkan terjadinya koreksi bearish menuju area
support dikisaran 1539.71 hingga area 1529.82 jika resistance tersebut mampu bertahan.

Surviving Greek Government to Approve New Austerity

Greece's government will approve a new austerity package on Wednesday after it survived a confidence vote that was a crucial hurdle in a battle to avert the euro zone's first sovereign debt default.

Prime Minister George Papandreou's reshuffled cabinet aims to get parliamentary approval for a package of spending cuts, tax hikes and state asset sales by June 28 and implement it by July 3 to secure 12 billion euros ($17 billion) in aid that is vital to avoid bankruptcy.

The vote follows a European ultimatum linking the release of the next installment of a 110 billion euro EU/IMF aid package to the tougher new five-year belt-tightening plan.

Without the loans, Athens would plunge into default next month, sending shock waves through the global financial system. The euro rose in hopes that the immediate threat of market chaos could be avoided.

But the gains were short-lived as traders remained worried about the will to implement harsh austerity measures against fierce public resistance and by doubts about Greece's ability to reduce its debt burden without some form of restructuring.

The yield on Greek government bonds tightened slightly against benchmark German Bunds, with the 2-year bond yield dropping 28 basis points, while Greek banking stocks opening flat after strong gains on Tuesday.

After some brief scuffles between police and protesters after the late night vote, the streets of Athens were calm on Wednesday with traffic running normally through Syntagma square where 20,000 demonstrators besieged parliament on Tuesday night.

The government won the late night confidence motion by 155 to 143 with two abstentions after all of Papandreou's Socialist Party deputies voted solidly with the government.

But with unions bristling for a fight and much of the public outraged by new austerity measures, implementing any reforms will be a challenge as Greece struggles in its worst recession in 37 years.

"Within the parliament there is no problem at all, the real problem is in society," said Costas Panagopoulos of pollster ALCO.

"There's a lot of disappointment in the Greek society, there's a lot of anger and there's no hope at all. The new minister of finance and the government...have to offer some hope otherwise I cannot see how the government could remain stable."

Default Only Way Out?

Euro zone creditor governments were starting talks with commercial banks and insurers on Wednesday about a "voluntary" private sector contribution to a second rescue program for Greece, a source in the German government said.

"The finance ministry has invited banks and insurers for talks on a working group level in Frankfurt," the source told Reuters, adding that the same would begin elsewhere in the 17-nation single currency area.

Private bondholders will be asked to commit to rolling over their Greek bonds when they mature, but Berlin was forced to drop a more ambitious plan for a bond swap extending maturities by seven years after the European Central Bank objected.

Speaking hours after the vote, Mohamed El-Erian, head of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, said he expected Greece to end up defaulting on its debt.

"For the next three years, we're going to see different economies work out different problems.

For European economies, especially Greece, it would be through default," El-Erian told a conference in Taipei.

Papandreou managed to stifle dissent within his party last week, replacing unpopular government figures with critics of the austerity plan and repeatedly hammering home the message of what was at stake.

"If we are afraid, if we throw away this opportunity, then history will judge us very harshly," Papandreou said in a final appeal for support before the confidence vote.

Having already missed targets agreed in its first, year-old bailout, Athens needs the reforms to keep receiving those funds and secure a second bailout worth an estimated 120 billion euros.

The new mid-term plan envisions raising 50 billion euros by selling off state firms and includes 6.5 billion in 2011 fiscal consolidation, almost doubling existing measures that have helped extend a deep recession into its third year.

Most analysts remain skeptical that Greece will be able to repay its vast public debt pile of 340 billion euros, 1.5 times its annual economic output and more than 30,000 euros for each of its 11.3 million people, even if the reforms are implemented.

But for now both markets and European policymakers are willing to give Greece the benefit of the doubt.

"Although this clearly is not going to be a long-term fix, investors see this as a chance that the can will be kicked further down the road," said David Dietze, Chief Investment strategist at Point View Financial Services.

Anger Builds in Athens

European Commission President Manuel Barroso, who had piled on pressure before the vote, expressed relief.

"Tonight's vote in the Greek Parliament removes an element of uncertainty from an already very difficult situation," he said, adding that Papandreou could now concentrate on implementing the reforms.

Acting IMF chief John Lipsky said international lenders were willing to help peripheral euro zone economies as long as they tried to carry out reforms. He said the Greek fiscal system was broken but could be fixed with the right political will.

The cabinet will meet on Wednesday afternoon to approve a draft bill implementing the austerity plan, officials said.

It will aim to get it passed in parliament by June 28 and then it must push through laws implementing the reforms — potentially more difficult as it will tackle individual privatizations, tax measures and spending cuts — in time for an extraordinary meeting of euro zone finance ministers on July 3.

New Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, in an attempt to answer a key grievance of protesters, told parliament the government's top priority would be to build a fairer tax system.

He is expected to drop plans for an increase in fuel tax and for a special levy on real estate, instead targeting the self-employed — who are widely believed to be amongst the worst tax evaders — while lowering the burden on low-paid employees.

Inspectors from the International Monetary Fund and European Union arrived on Tuesday to examine a request by Venizelos for changes to the mid-term plan. The government said the mission would discuss changes "at a technical level."

Euro zone officials have told Reuters the plan for the new bailout, meant to extend Greece's year-old 110-billion-euro deal and fund it into late 2014, would feature up to 60 billion euros of fresh official loans, 30 billion euros from the private sector and 30 billion euros from privatizations.

Leading global credit ratings agencies have warned, however, that changes to terms of existing government bonds could be considered as a default.

Caution About Greece Returns to the Markets

All eyes are on Greece yet again Wednesday morning after the Greek parliament backed Prime Minister George Papandreou's new cabinet Tuesday in a midnight vote, with some analysts saying much more is needed for markets' confidence to come back.

The boost for Papandreou’s government means it is more likely that the country's new austerity package will be approved later on Wednesday, which should restart the flow of bailout funds that are staving off default.

Worries about how far the contagion could spread if Greece defaults on its debt have weighed on the markets in recent weeks.

On Wednesday, European markets opened down slightly ahead a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, after posting their biggest gain in two months on Tuesday as optimism that Greece will receive a fresh bailout and avoid defaulting spread. The euro lost grounds on Wednesday morning on profit-taking, after the enthusiasm immediately after the vote vanished.

However, it still remains to be seen whether Papandreou can successfully implement his austerity programme, as protestors take to the streets of Athens.

“The important thing is the implementation, and that will become more visible in the next few months,” Michael Massourakis, Senior Manager Economic Research at Alpha Bank in Athens, told CNBC Wednesday.

He added that the first hurdle will be whether the government can reach its target of cutting the budget deficit to 7.5 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the year.

The new Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, who was given the job after a cabinet reshuffle last week, has more “gravitas” than his predecessors and should do a good job, Massourakis said.

“Investors will be watching to see whether Greece can bring it to fruition,” he said. “The whole thing will unravel and either we are going to see the collapse of the euro or Europe will have more political integration than we have seen up to now."

One commentator said that the situation may not lead to the financial Armageddon pessimists predict.

“I think it’s actually not that bad,” Edmund Shing, head of European equities at Barclays Capital, told CNBC. “Everyone seems to be obsessed by Greece, but in other parts of the world, and Europe, there are reasons why people have been pessimistic over the last couple of months."

“However, if you look at the backdrop for equities, which is not fantastic this year, not in the first phase of an economic recovery, over the last few months analysts have been revising their predictions up overall,” Shing added.

If the European Central Bank "does something that threatens the euro" we will see a crisis, according to Steve Barrow, head of G10 Research at Standard Bank.

“If people start saying: ‘Will the euro survive?’ then it’s in trouble,” Barrow said.

But the Greek tragedy has been a long-drawn one, according to Massourakis.

“The whole world, and the whole financial market, has been waiting for Greece to default for 12 months,” he said. “At the same time, if Greece proves that it is able to start implementation of the five-year programme of austerity, it will allow government to start coming back into the markets slowly.”

The euro is not in as big a danger as some analysts believe, Barrow said.

“There’s not a lot of competition for reserve currencies,” he said.

“I think in this case they don’t have to push so hard as the UK did in 1992,” he said, talking about the UK’s exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism on what was known as Black Wednesday, when the government was unable to keep the currency above the lower end of the exchange rate's fluctuation band because of speculative attacks.

"We are confident that Greece will find a way of not defaulting in the short term and hopefully we will see some sort of debt rollover, some sort of Vienna Initiative kind of solution as a default wouldn't be very supportive of the periphery," Ana Armstrong, CEO of Armstrong Investments, told CNBC Wednesday. Armstrong believes her investment in short-term Greek government bonds will pay off.

The Vienna Initiative saw a group of about a dozen Western-owned banks pledge to keep their exposure to Central and Eastern European countries during 2009 when they were badly hit by the crisis.

The agreement was reached after the European Union and the International Monetary Fund helped the hardest hit Eastern European countries with funds, which were used in part to boost liquidity for foreign-owned commercial banks in those countries.

IMF Lihat Resiko di Spanyol

Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengatakan Spanyol harus meningkatkan upaya reformasi ekonomi akibat krisis utang Eropa yang mengancam pertumbuhan negara tersebut.

"Perbaikan ekonomi  tidak lengkap dan resiko cukup besar, pemerintah harus lanjutkan reformasi untuk mendukung pemulihan dan mengurangi tingkat pengangguran 21%  yang sangat tinggi," kata IMF  dalam laporan penilaian tahunan Spanyol.

 

Pemerintah Sosialis Spanyol sedang melaksanakan pemotongan anggaran terbanyak dalam  tiga dekade terakhir dengan cara tingkatkan usia pensiun dan mengurangi biaya dunia usaha. Pemerintah prediksi pertumbuhan Spanyol sebesar 1.3 % tahun ini,  2.3 % tahun depan dan 2.4 % pada tahun 2013. 

 

"Kondisi keuangan bisa menjadi lebih buruk, mencerminkan meningkatnya kekhawatiran tentang risiko default di kawasan Eropa," kata IMF. 

Pasar Eropa Berhati-Hati Jelang FOMC

Pasar Eropa tertekan dalam sesi perdagangan hari Rabu meskipun pemerintah telah berhasil mempertahankan kepercayaan perlemen Yunani. Investor nampaknya masih skeptis mengingat belum ditemukannya solusi tepat untuk masalah hutang Yunani yang masih menyisakan ancaman default. Pasar juga tengah menantikan pengumuman hasil pertemuan kebijakan Federal Reserve AS yang diharapkan dapat memberikan gambaran yang lebih jelas tentang laju pemulihan ekonomi serta memberikan petunjuk tentang langkah-langkah stimulus moneter.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 melemah sekitar 0,4%, sedangkan indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing harus kehilangan 0,11% dan 0,56%. Di Inggris, FTSE bergerak 0,55% lebih rendah dalam 2 jam pertama perdagangan.

 

Yunani maish tetap menjadi fokus meskipun voting kepercayaan kemarin berhasil dimenangkan pemerintahan George Papandreu, namun pemerintah harus segera menghadapi tantangan lain dimana mereka harus berjuang meloloskan rencana langkah-langkah penghematan baru dalam voting parlemen 28 Juni mendatang guna memastikan pencairan paket bailout tahap berikutnya dari Uni Eropa dan IMF.

 

Sementara Federal Reserve dijadwalkan akan merilis keputusan kebijakan moneternya hari ini, yang telah mendorong pasar Eropa untuk lebih berhati-hati. 

Gold : Uji Kembali Resistance di 1,548.55, Incar 1,557.39

Emas kembali menguji resistance dikisaran 1548.55. Secara teknikal pecahnya level resistance tersebut dapat memicu penguatan menuju area 1557.39. Namun waspadai kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini berada dalam area overbought dan memungkinkan terjadinya koreksi bearish menuju area support dikisaran 1539.71 hingga area 1529.82 jika resistance tersebut mampu bertahan.

Semua Mata Tertuju ke Federal Reserve A.S

Hari ini semua mata tertuju kepada meeting Federal Reserve Amerika, dan para pelaku pasar terlihat tenang namun tetap bersikap waspada menjelang hasil pertemuan the Fed nanti malam yang agendanya akan memutuskan suku bunga serta memberikan gambaran mengenai prospek ekonominya.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) memulai pertemuan 2 hari-nya sejak kemarin, dan keputusan suku bunga akan diumumkan pada hari Rabu malam diikuti dengan konferensi pers dari gubernur Fed, Ben Bernanke.

 

The Fed diperkirakan kembali akan memangkas perkiraan pertumbuhan tahun 2011, namun Bernanke kemungkinan akan terus menegaskan perlambatan hanya bersifat sementara.

 

Dari sisi fundamental ekonomi, kemarin data penjualan rumah tangan kedua turun namun kurang dari perkiraan di bulan Mei, menurut National Association of Realtors.

Euro Analysis : Koreksi ke Area 1.4311, Potensial Rebound ke 1.4432

Bias jangka pendek untuk EURUSD juga masih bullish. Koreksi mungkin akan terjadi ke area trendline atau support di 1.4311 sebelum melanjutkan trend hingga ke resistance di 1.4432. Jika harga jatuh ke bawah area 1.4311, maka uptrend kemungkinan akan berakhir dan harga berpotensi terus turun ke 1.4190.

Sterling Analisa : Bullish jangka pendek,Koreksi ke 1.6180

Bias jangka pendek untuk GBPUSD masih bullish, saat ini menguji accelerating trendline di mana jika garis tersebut tembus maka GBPUSD kemungkinan akan terkoreksi ke support di 1.6180 sebelum melanjutkan pergerakan bullish hingga ke resistance di 1.6252. Tembusnya ke bawah 1.6180 berpotensi memperdalam koreksi hingga ke area trendline utama atau area 1.6563.

Investor ambil untung dengan rally gold

Tindakan investor untuk mengambil keuntungan dari reli harga emas di hari Selasa dan juga ketidak pastian atas krisis hutang Yunani membuat emas melemah. Spot emas di $1,546.80 per troy ounce, turun 40 sen dari penutupan New York.  

Rendahnya harga emas di hari Rabu terjadi setelah Perdana Menteri Yunani Papandreou memenangkan pemungutan suara menjelang menjelang pemangkasan anggaran untuk menyelamatkan paket bantuan, meredam kekhawatiran atas kemungkinan kegagalan Yunani dan mengurangi minat untuk aset safe-haven seperti emas. Untuk jangka pendek, investor mencemaskan apakah logam mulia akan terus menguat atau konsolidasi di level saat ini, kata Jonathan Barratt, direktur pelaksana Commodity Broking Services, Sydney.

Sentimen pasar masih pada komentar pimpinan Fed Ben Bernanke yang diperkirakan akan mengumumkan berakhirnya program pembelian obligasi Fed senilai $600 milyar, katanya.

Carut Marut Hutang Eropa Ancaman Ekonomi Global-IMF

Krisis hutang di negara-negara kawasan Eropa adalah ancaman bagi pemulihan ekonomi baik dikawasan tersebut maupun secara global, dan zona Eropa harus lebih bekerja sama lagi untuk mengatasi hal itu dan mengkonsolidasikan fiskal guna mengembalikan kepercayaan.

Menurut penjelasan pihak Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), pemulihan ekonomi global terus berlanjut, namun krisis zona Eropa merupakan ancaman bagi outlook pemulihan yang baik, dan masih banyak yang harus dibenahi untuk mengamankan sistem moneter yang dinamis dan kokoh.

 

"Inti dari masalah yang dihadapi adalah tingginya tingkat hutang, buruknya daya saing, dan rapuhnya sistem perbankan," menurut laporan dari IMF.

 

Sementara bila kondisi ini dikaitkan dengan pergerakan mata uang tunggal Euro, nulai tukar ini kondisinya masih tetap rentan dan rapuh mengingat setiap ada berita mengenai krisis hutang Eropa, baik itu berita positif maupun berita negatif, selalu akan mempengaruhi mata uang tunggal ini.

Sterling Ikuti Jejak EUR, Namun Waspadai Fed AS

Sterling melonjak mengikuti jejak Euro/Dolar hingga berkeliaran diatas area $1.6200 di hari Selasa, terutama berkat meredanya keprihatinan investor terhadap penundaan pinjaman darurat tahap berikutnya untuk Yunani oleh para menteri keuangan zona Euro.

Namun demikian Sterling kondisinya masih tetap rentan mengingat setiap ada berita mengenai krisis hutang Eropa, selalu akan mempengaruhi mata uang ini. Dan penguatan GBP nampak masih akan terbatas terkait ekspektasi bahwa suku bunga Inggris akan tetap berada pada level rendah masih mewarnai pasar ditengah perekonomian yang masih rapuh.

 

Dan pelaku pasar kini juga bersikap waspada menjelang pertemuan Federal Reserve AS untuk memutuskan suku bunga serta memberikan gambaran mengenai prospek ekonominya

 

Secara teknikal untuk Sterling: kalo mata uang ini tak mampu tembus diatas resisten 1.6240/6250, pergerakan akan melanjutkan bearish-nya untuk pecah dibawah 1.6200 dan akan membawa Sterling ke level support berikut di area 1.6170 hingga 1.6110. Sementara bila resisten 1.6240 tadi berhasil ditembus, GBP akan melanjutkan penguatannya hingga 1.6300.

Euro Analysis

Koreksi terjadi setelah sterling tertekan hingga ke 1.6077. Saat ini GBPUSD tengah menguji support di 1.6216 dan jika support ini tembus maka kemungkinan besar sterling akan melemah kembali untuk menguji support di 1.6077. Perkiraan ini diperkuat oleh stochastic dan CCI yang mengindikasikan kondisi jenuh beli. Waspadai akselerasi ke atas 1.6301 karena kemungkinan akan diikuti oleh pemulihan sterling hingga 1.6440.

Sterling Analysis

Koreksi terjadi setelah sterling tertekan hingga ke 1.6077. Saat ini GBPUSD tengah menguji support di 1.6216 dan jika support ini tembus maka kemungkinan besar sterling akan melemah kembali untuk menguji support di 1.6077. Perkiraan ini diperkuat oleh stochastic dan CCI yang mengindikasikan kondisi jenuh beli. Waspadai akselerasi ke atas 1.6301 karena kemungkinan akan diikuti oleh pemulihan sterling hingga 1.6440.

Menanti Recovery AS

Dalam satu pekan ke depan, Wall Street masih dihiasi ketakutan akan resesi baru. Investor akan giat mencari petunjuk yang bisa memunculkan optimisme.

Double dip adalah salah satu hal yang paling ditakuti pelaku pasar Amerika Serikat (AS) akhir-akhir ini. Bagaimana tidak, di kala pertumbuhan masih lambat, angka pengangguran justru merangkak naik ke level 9,1%. Oleh karena itu, pekan ini adalah periode krusial dalam perjalanan saham di AS. Beberapa data penting akan dirilis dalam hitungan hari, mulai dari housing, durable goods dan tenaga kerja. Adapun acara besar yang patut diperhatikan hari Selasa dan Rabu besok adalah pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Beberapa analis berbagi pandangannya mengenai prospek data-data ekonomi pekan ini serta kinerja fundamental AS sendiri:

 

- Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist dengan Charles Schwab

 

"Kita sudah mengalami perlambatan, tetapi resiko resesi masih sangat jauh."

 

Suku bunga hampir pasti bertahan dekat level nol persen. Namun investor menanti komentar bank sentral soal strategi pemulihan ekonomi serta kelanjutan program pembelian obligasi, yang berakhir 30 Juni. 

 

- Jim Dunigan, Managing Executive of Investments PNC Wealth Management

 

"Investor tidak yakin dengan pemulihan jika penopangnya tidak ada lagi."

 

Seperti terlihat pada performa indeks Dow dan S&P, yang berhasil mengakhiri koreksi 6 pekan. Investor menyerap dengan baik data yang dirilis positif sehingga bursa kembali bergairah. 

 

- Quincy Krosby, Market Strategist Prudential Financial

 

"Kita harus angka jobless claim turun sampai ke bawah 400.000."

 

Pasar sangat sensitif menyikapi kemungkinan perlambatan ekonomi global. Klaim pengangguran mingguan di luar dugaan turun ke 414.000. Indikator utama Conference Board juga naik dua kali lipat dibanding harapan ekonom. Demikian pula dengan angka penjualan ritel terkini. Namun, terlalu dini untuk menyimpulkan telah terjadi percepatan ekonomi. 

 

Pekan ini, investor akan terus memantau perkembangan terkini di Yunani dan kawasan Eropa. Wall Street juga bersiap menyambut hasil kuartalan dari Oracle (ORCL) dan FedEx (FDX).

Teknikal: Krisis Eropa Angkat Emas ke 1546

Harga Emas dunia terpantau menguat bersama dengan penguatan mata uang tunggal Euro di hari Selasa dan nampaknya emas masih akan terus terdukung oleh krisis hutang zona Eropa setelah pinjaman darurat untuk Yunani kemarin ditunda.

Menteri Keuangan zona Eropa terus mendesak Yunani agar menyetujui langkah penghematan yang lebih ketat sebelum keputusan akhir bantuan sebesar 12 milyar euro diputuskan.

 

Secara teknikal bias harga spot emas (XAU=) masih bullish menuju setidaknya ke area $1546 dan $1550 sebagai konfirmasi untuk bergerak naik lebih tinggi menguji area $1560. Sementara level $1532 terbukti menjadi support kuat dalam fase ini, hanya break ke bawah area ini yang dapat memicu koreksi bearish kembali ke area 1519.

Emas Bergerak Naik

Emas bergerak menguat hari Selasa dan bertahan dekat level tertingginya dalam 2 minggu, tanpa ada kejelasan berakhirnya krisis di Eropa setelah Yunani diminta untuk menyetujui paket pemulihan guna menghindari kehancuran hutang-hutangnya.

Tetapi melambatnya perdagangan memperlihatkan para investor untuk waspada menjelang pertemuan FOMC minggu ini setelah badan rating Fitch akan menempatkan rating hutang AS menjadi megatif apabila batas hutang tidak dinaikkan pada 2 Agustus.

 

Spot emas bertambah sebanyak 91 sen ke level $1,540.86 per ons setelah naik setingginya di $1,545.90 per ons hari Senin, terkuatnya sejak 9 Juni. Emas masih dibawah tinggi selama ini disekitar $1,575 yang terjadi pada awal bulan Mei.