Fundamental Analysis, Nov 26th, 2012

Euro rises broadly on Greece aid optimism, German data

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday, heading for its second straight week of gains, on hopes that Greece's lenders were nearing an agreement to release further aid to help the debt-stricken country. 

A rise in German business morale also boosted the euro, although analysts said any euro strength should be limited given the bleak economic outlook for the euro zone as a whole and expectations that the European Central Bank will have to ease policy further. 

Greece said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be disbursed. But other sources involved in the talks cautioned the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested. 

The euro <EUR=> rose as high as $1.2943 on Reuters data, breaking above resistance at $1.2910, its 55-day moving average. It was last trading at $1.2941, up 0.5 percent on the day. It also hit a seven-month high of 106.73 yen <EURJPY=> and was last at 106.65 yen, up 0.4 percent. 

The euro has gained 2 percent against the dollar in the past two weeks as yields on Greek bonds fell on expectations that euro zone ministers should be able to sign off on another tranche of aid for Greece on Monday. 

German business morale surprised with its first rise in seven months in November. The Munich-based Ifo think tank said its business climate index rose to 101.4 from 100.0 in October, far surpassing even the highest estimate in a Reuters poll. 

Wall Street climbs in short session, led by tech stocks

U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day during a holiday-shortened, thin trading session on Friday, as investors bid up large technology stocks which had fallen to more attractive levels recently. Market participants were also encouraged by signs of progress in talks about releasing aid to debt-saddled Greece, and piled into U.S. retail shares as the holiday shopping season got underway. 

U.S. equity market trading will end early at 1:00 pm ET (1800 GMT) after closing Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volume was limited, with many investors still on leave. Microsoft <MSFT.O> helped lift the Nasdaq, gaining 2.4 percent to $27.61, while Oracle <ORCL.O> rose 1.8 percent to $30.94. 

Research in Motion <RIMM.O> surged on optimism about its soon-to-be-launched BlackBerry 10 devices that will vie against Apple's <AAPL.O> iPhone and Android-based smartphones. RIM was up 13.8 percent at $11.68.  The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 172.79 points, or 1.35 percent, to 13,009.68. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> added 18.12 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,409.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 40.30 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,966.85.

For the week, the Dow gained 3.3 percent, the S&P added 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq rose 4 percent. The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 and the Dow above 13,000 for the first time since Nov. 6.

Gold up 1 pct as dlr drop sparks rally; $1,750 eyed

Gold rose to its highest level in more than a month on Friday, gaining 1 percent as a combination of dollar decline, options-related buying and technical support sent the metal near $1,750 an ounce. 

After trading slightly higher in early U.S. dealings, gold suddenly surged and broke above its 50 day moving average, a key technical resistance the metal had failed to breach in more than a month. 

Bullion also benefited as the dollar fell broadly, particularly versus the euro, on hopes for a Greek aid package and a surprise improvement in German business sentiment. [FRX/] Markets could be choppier than usual in thin trading on Friday, with the metal markets closing early and the U.S. stock market open for only a half-day of business after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. 

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 1 percent at $1,747 an ounce by 11:07 a.m. EST (1607 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery <GCZ2> were up $18.90 an ounce at $1,747.10 in heavy trade. The first-notice day for December is next Friday. 

Oil Rises on German Business Confidence

 

Oil rose after German business confidence unexpectedly increased from the lowest level in two and a half years in November, signaling Europe’s largest economy may gain strength. Futures jumped as much as 1.3 percent and the euro and equities rallied as the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed to 101.4 from 100 in October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a drop to 99.5. Israeli troops fired on Palestinians near the Gaza Strip, spurring accusations from both Israel and Hamas that a truce was breached. 

Crude oil for January delivery rose 82 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $88.20 a barrel at 12:03 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, which are up 1.8 percent this week, have dropped 11 percent this year. 

The exchange will close at 1:30 p.m. New York time today, an hour earlier than usual. There was no floor trading yesterday because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and all electronic transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes. 

Brent for January settlement increased 43 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $110.98 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is heading for a 1.9 percent gain this week. 

Nikkei set to rise, may test a 7-month high on gains by exporters

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to rise on Monday and may test a seven-month high, supported by a positive U.S. lead and expectations that a weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters. 

Sentiment was buoyed by indications that lenders are closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche for Greece, which pushed the euro to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday. The euro hit a seven-month high of 106.97 yen <EURJPY=>, and was last at 106.92 yen, up 0.6 percent. 

Exporters with high exposure to the euro zone, such as carmakers like Mazda Motor Corp <7267.T> and precision equipment makers like Canon Inc <7751.T> and Nikon Corp <7731.T>, may lead gains, analysts said. 

The Nikkei <.N225> rose 1.6 percent to 9,366.80 on Thursday, its highest closing level since May 2, taking the index near "overbought" territory, with its 14-day relative strength index at 69.5. Seventy or above is deemed overbought. The Japanese market was closed for a national holiday on Friday. 

Seoul shares seen gaining, US holiday sales off to good start

Seoul shares are likely to gain on Monday, helped by a promising start to the U.S. holiday shopping season, while concerns about U.S. fiscal woes and Europe's debt crisis have receded somewhat. 

U.S. shoppers went to stores earlier and bought online more than before this Thanksgiving weekend, giving retailers a strong start to the holiday shopping season, data showed on Sunday. Global stocks and the euro gained on Friday on signs of progress in talks on releasing aid to Greece and after an influential German survey found business sentiment had improved in Europe's largest economy. U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day in a low-volume trading session. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> closed up 0.6 percent at 1,911.33 points on Friday. 

Hong Kong shares poised for 4th-straight daily gain

Hong Kong shares are set to start the week with a fourth-straight daily gain on Monday, buoyed by expectations that an agreement at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later in the day will help Greece avoid a near-term bankruptcy.  

  

The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> rose 0.8 percent to 21,914 points last Friday to its highest close since Nov. 7. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong was 1.1 percent higher.

Both rose 3.6 percent over the week, with the Hang Seng Index postings its best weekly showing in 2-1/2 months. The index is only a little more than 1 percent below its 2012 intra-day high, recorded on Nov. 2. 

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 1.2 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.2 percent at 00.51 GMT.

Technical Analysis, November 26th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2900-0.3080	Up	1.3080	1.2900	1.2960		1.3080	1.2900
			1.3020	1.2840
USD/JPY	81.60-83.10	Up	83.10	81.60	82.10		83.10	81.60
			82.60	81.10
GBP/USD	1.5960-1.6020	Up	1.6140	1.5960	1.6020		1.6140	1.5960
			1.6080	1.5900
USD/CHF	0.9180-0.9360	Down	0.9420	0.9240		0.9300	0.9180	0.9360
			0.9360	0.9180
AUD/USD	1.0370-1.0550	Up	1.0550	1.0370	1.0430		1.0550	1.0370
			1.0490	1.0310
NIKKEI	9340-9520	Up	9520	9340	9400		9520	9340
			9460	9280
HANGSENG	21840-22020	Up	22020	21840	21900		22020	21840
			21960	21780
KOSPI	249.40-251.20	Up	251.20	249.40	250.00		251.20	249.40
			250.60	248.80
GOLD	1737.00-1761.00	Up	1761.00	1737.00	1745.00		1761.00	1737.00
			1753.00	1729.00

Technical Rebound Emas Datang, Tinggal Menunggu Break High

Emas telah tembus diatas range horizontal jangka pendeknya yang mengindikasikan potensi penguatan lebih lanjut. Bagiamnapaun resisten 1754 (high 17 Oktober ’12) sejauh ini masih belum mampu ditembus. Support intraday tampak di area 1736 & 1729.

Level support krusial jangka panjang di area 1647 diperkirakan masih akan bertahan di jangka menengah. Secara keseluruhan arah Emas masih condong keatas semenjak rebound dari support 1523, selanjutnya tinggal menunggu teknikal rebound berlanjut diatas resisten 1770 untuk menguji Resisten jangka panjang di area 1791 dan 1803.

Greenback Kokoh Di Tengah Berlangsungnya Pertemuan Eurogroup

Dollar AS diperdagangkan lebih kuat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada hari Senin seiring para menteri keuangan zona eropa melangsungkan pertemuan di Brussels, guna membahas pencairan dana bantuan tahap berikutnya untuk Yunani.

.

"Kegagalan dalam pembahasan anggaran Uni Eropa pekan lalu, pemilu akhir pekan di Spanyol dan pembahasan tentang bantuan keuangan untuk Yunani yang tengah berlangsung masih menjaga ketidakpastian di pasar," kata analis Credit Agricole.

Sedangkan terhadap Yen Jepang, Dollar AS harus memperlihatkan sedikit pelemahan pada awal pekan ini. Namun secara keseluruhan Greenback relatif masih lebih kuat, setelah mencatat penguatan 1,3% sepanjang pekan lalu dan 3,3% sejak awal bulan November.

Rilis minutes pertemuan Bank of Japan tadi pagi memperlihatkan jika 2 anggota dewan kebijakan menyerukan pelonggaran moneter yang lebih agresif dan mendesak bank sentral untuk mempertahankan komitmen pelonggaran hingga target inflasi 1% tercapai.

Carney, Gubernur Baru BoE

Gubernur Bank of Canada Mark Carney akan menggantikan Mervyn King sebagai pimpinan Bank of England mulai tahun depan, menurut pemerintah Inggris. "Jabatan King sebagai Gubernur BoE akan berakhir Juni 2013 dan Carney akan menjadi Gubernur BoE berikutnya," ujar Menteri Keuangan Inggris George Osborne.

Carney merupakan salah satu petinggi bank sentral terkemuka di dunia. Selain menjabat sebagai Gubernur BoC, Carney juga memegang posisi sebagai pimpinan Dewan Stabilitas Keuangan (FSB) yang ditugaskan untuk menjalankan peraturan yang telah disusun oleh G-20. "Carney merupakan salah satu petinggi bank sentral yang cemerlang," tutur Osborne yang juga utarakan bahwa Carney akan menjabat sebagai gubernur BoE selama lima tahun.

Sementara itu, sterling kurangi pelemahan sedangkan Dollar Kanada melemah setelah berita ini dirilis. GBP/USD kini diperdagangkan 1.6026, coba menjauhi level rendah harian 1.5996. USD/CAD kini diperdagangkan 0.9950, menjauhi level rendah harian 0.9916

Wall Street Pekan Ini: Performa Ekonomi Harus Terjaga

Di tengah tumbuhnya optimisme akan kemunculan solusi jurang fiskal, investor bursa New York pekan ini wajib mencermati rilis data ekonomi terbaru Amerika Serikat. Laporan sektor perumahan, manufaktur dan gairah konsumen dapat dijadikan parameter kinerja ekonomi di penghujung tahun.

Keyakinan pelaku pasar tehadap penuntasan isu fiscal cliff mampu melambungkan harga saham. Padahal pasca pemilihan presiden lalu, bursa Amerika diterjang pesimisme dahsyat karena ketidakyakinan terhadap kemampuan Barack Obama memenangkan hati kongres. Pekan lalu Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 dan Nasdaq mencatat kenaikan di atas 3% setelah menguat selama lima hari berturut-turut. Untuk kali pertama sesudah pemilu digelar, Dow Jones mampu menembus psikologis 13.000.

Terdapat dua indikator makro yang layak mendapat perhatian dalam lima hari ke depan. Yang pertama adalah Beige Book atau dokumen yang berisi proyeksi ekonomi bank sentral terhadap kondisi di 12 distrik (Rabu 28/11). Pada Beige Book bulan lalu, Beige Book memperlihatkan ekspansi pada aktivitas ekonomi meski terbilang moderat. Data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) yang muncul di hari Kamis (29/11) akan memperlihatkan sejauh mana daya saing ekonomi Amerika membaik di akhir tahun. Estimasi pertama yang dikeluarkan bulan Oktober lalu, menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi tumbuh pada rata-rata 2%. Kenaikan tersebut sedikit banyak dipengaruhi oleh penambahan belanja pertahanan, membaiknya pasar perumahan dan daya beli konsumen yang mulai pulih.

Khusus untuk poin yang terakhir tadi, gairah beli warga akan dikonfirmasi oleh rilis data belanja konsumen yang juga keluar pekan ini. Data ini hampir pasti positif karena peritel kini sedang diserbu oleh pelanggan yang bersiap menyambut musim liburan. Namun demikian, masih harus dipastikan apakah gairah beli tahun ini bisa lebih baik ketimbang akhir tahun 2011 lalu. Consumer spending berkontribusi sebesar 70% terhadap perekonomian nasional melalui tiga komponen yang termasuk di dalamnya, yaitu consumer confidence, personal income dan spending numbers. Bulan lalu, consumer confidence mampu memecahkan rekor tertinggi dalam empat tahun terakhir akibat apiknya daya serap tenaga kerja.

Sektor perumahan juga mempunyai tiga laporan penting yang layak diamati pekan ini yaitu indeks 20-kota versi Case-Shiller, mortgage rates dan pending home sales. Sementara dua data manafaktur yang siap meramaikan bursa saham adalah laporan durable orders dan Indeks purchasing manager Chicago.

Emas Rebound Seiring Negosiasi Jurang Fiskal AS

Emas kembali rebound diatas harga pembukaan hari ini di level $1,751.00 seiring spekulan menggeser fokus ke DPR AS yang melanjutkan negosiasi hari ini untuk menghindari jurang fiskal AS. Selain itu para investor juga masih menunggu hasil rapat penyediaan pinjaman darurat pada Yunani. Berbagai ketidakpastian tersebut secara keseluruhan mendongkrak Dollar AS, sehingga para investor cenderung berlindung pada aset safe haven seperti obligasi dan Dollar AS.

Secara teknikal diperkirakan harga Emas masih tertahan di kisaran 1746 s.d 1755 dalam satu hingga dua hari kedepan sebelum akhirnya terkerek naik diatas range saat ini. Importir Emas di India, mulai mengurangi pembelian cadangan Emas untuk musim kawin India seiring melambungnya harga mendekati level tertinggi nya terhadap rupee.

Kebanyakan analis mengekspektasikan kenaikan permintaan jelang musim berlibur di akhir tahun, dengan konsumen utama masih datang dari India dan China yang diperkirakan menyumbang sekitar setengah dari permintaan Emas global.

Buffet Desak Kongres Naikan Pajak Orang Kaya

Miliarder Warren Buffet menyerukan sekali lagi untuk pajak yang lebih tinggi pada warga Amerika yang sangat kaya dan dia mendesak Kongres untuk berkompromi atas pemotongan anggaran dan kenaikan pajak. Buffet mengungkapkan pandangannya tentang kebijakan fiskal dalam sebuah artikel opini di The New York Times pada hari Senin.

Dalam artikel itu, Buffet mengejek gagasan yang menyatakan bahwa para investor akan menarik kembali modalnya jika pajak dinaikkan. Buffet mengatakan dia tidak pernah melihat itu terjadi.  Kepala konglomerat Berkshire Hathaway Inc. menegaskan kembail seruannya  untuk yang berpenghasilan antara $ 1 juta sampai $10 juta akan terkena pajak minimal 30 persen, dan yang di atas $ 10 juta terkena kenaikan pajak sebesar 35 persen.

Fundamental Analysis, Nov 22nd, 2012

Euro hits 6-1/2 month peak vs yen, edges up on US dollar

The euro climbed to a 6-1/2-month high on the yen and rebounded versus the dollar in choppy trading on Wednesday as comments by Germany's chancellor spurred optimism European leaders will reach an agreement on Greek funding.
Europe's common currency dropped earlier after Greece's international lenders failed to reach agreement on releasing emergency aid as they haggled over how to reduce the country's
debt to a sustainable level.
The euro later trimmed losses after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she saw chances of a deal at a meeting of European finance ministers on Monday.
The yen, meanwhile, fell across the board on weak Japanese export data and expectations of further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. It fell to a 6-1/2 month low against the euro and
a 7-1/2 month trough versus the dollar.
The euro hit a peak of 105.82 yen <EURJPY=>, its highest since early May. In afternoon New York activity it traded slightly below the peak at 105.72 yen, up 1 percent on the day.
Against the dollar, the euro <EUR=> was up slightly at  $1.2825, off a session low of $1.2733.
 U.S. markets are closed on Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Wall St gains after Gaza truce in light holiday trade

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday after a ceasefire was declared to end the flare-up in violence between Israel and the Palestinians, though the lack of a deal to release emergency aid for Greece limited the market's advance.
Investors also remained anxious about the mandatory tax increases and spending cuts that would go into effect in the new year if a deal is not reached to prevent it - known as the "fiscal cliff" - though policymakers are not expected to get back to negotiations until after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.
Trading volume was light ahead of the holiday on Thursday, when the U.S. stock market will be closed. With less than an hour left to trade until the closing bell, about 3.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with year-to-date daily average volume of 6.5 billion shares. On Friday, the U.S. stock market will close early at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT).
 A truce between Israel and Hamas gave stocks some support around midday after Egypt announced a ceasefire will come into effect later in the day.
Positive comments from U.S. politicians that they will work to find common ground have helped the S&P 500 recoup some of that loss in recent sessions.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 49.60 points, or 0.39 percent, to 12,838.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 2.64 points, or 0.19 percent, to 1,390.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 10.10 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,926.78.

Gold flat as Greek aid stalling, MidEast truce eyed

Gold was little changed on Wednesday after trading in a narrow range, caught between recession worries in Europe and the United States and safe-haven bids over concerns about violence in the Middle East.
Bullion ended near the top of an $11 daily range as the failure of international lenders to reach a deal to release emergency aid for Greece for a second week.
While gold is sometimes viewed as a safe haven in times of financial chaos, most investors used the metal as a hedge against inflation and central-bank money printing. Therefore, the disagreement on a Greek financial bailout decreased the metal's inflation-hedge appeal.
The metal was under pressure from data that showed U.S. consumer sentiment inched up, but appeared to be stalling after several months of improvement. Uncertainty also grew over a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that may come into effect early next year in the United States.
Spot gold <XAU=> inched up 0.1 percent to $1,728.94 an ounce by 2:03 p.m. EST (1903 GMT).
U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> settled up $4.60 at $1,728.20, with trading volume over 150,000 lots in line with its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil Gains on Economic Optimism, Declining Fuel Stockpiles

Oil advanced for the third time in four days as U.S. inventories fell unexpectedly last week and fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits.
Prices increased as stockpiles of crude and oil products dropped and jobless claims decreased by 41,000. Oil pared gains after Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire, reducing concern that supplies would be disrupted.
Crude oil for January delivery gained 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $87.33 a barrel at 1:34 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached $87.89 in earlier trading.
Brent for January settlement advanced 88 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $110.71 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
Oil inventories decreased for the first time in three weeks to 374.5 million barrels, the Energy Department said. The median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was a gain of 1 million.
Gasoline inventories fell 1.55 million barrels to 200.4 million. Distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel, dropped 2.68 million to 112.8 million, the lowest level in more than four years.

Nikkei set to rise, may test a six-month high

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to open firmer on Thursday and is within sight of a six-month high on expectations a sharply weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters.
The dollar rose as high as 82.55 yen <JPY=>, its strongest level since early April, on a pledge by the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, tipped to take power in an election next month, to push for further central bank easing. A softer yen allows exporters to earn more when they repatriate overseas earnings, and boosts their competitiveness.
The Nikkei <.N225> climbed 0.9 percent to end at a two-month high of 9,222.52 on Wednesday, and the broader Topix <.TOPX> advanced 0.7 percent to 767.01.
Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 9,325, up from the close in Osaka <JNIc1> of 9,220.
Market players said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 9,200 to 9,350 on Thursday. If the index breaches the 9,300-line, it will be the first time since May.
Market analysts said investor sentiment remains upbeat, but markets are closely watching talks by U.S policymakers on how to avoid the U.S. "fiscal cliff," which has raised fears about the direction of the world's largest economy.

Seoul shares seen up on easing Gaza tension, firm Wall Street

Seoul shares are likely to regain some ground on Thursday, after a truce was declared between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza strip, helping push up U.S. stocks overnight.
"We expect the KOSPI to rise modestly as the Middle East risk has abated with a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas," IBK Securities wrote in a morning note to investors.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.3 percent to 1,884.04 points on Wednesday, snapping a two-day rally.
Wall Street gains were modest with trading subdued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. [.N]

Hong Kong shares seen higher, China flash PMI eyed

Hong Kong shares could start higher on Thursday, with a preliminary survey of November manufacturing activity in China expected at around 0145 GMT that could offer more clues on the state of the world's second-largest economy.
The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday could keep turnover in Hong Kong muted, with price movements on the day magnified by low volume.    
On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> climbed 1.4 percent, its best daily showing since Sept 14. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong jumped 1.7 percent.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.9 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.8 percent at 0053 GMT.

Source : Reuters

Masih Muluskah Jalan Stimulus

Melihat banyaknya stimulus yang dilakukan oleh para bank sentral utama dunia, investor sepertinya masih harus memutar otak untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga untuk melihat dampak stimulus yang dilakukan. Terlebih saat stimulus yang diluncurkan bank sentral tersebut ternyata tidak sesuai dengan harapan atau ekspektasi pasar, terutama apabila terjadi hal-hal yang bersifat force majeur.

Hal ini bisa dilihat pada stimulus yang dilakukan oleh Bank of Japan baru-baru ini. Stimulus berupa penambahan dana sebesar 11 triliun Yen sepertinya dianggap masih mengecewakan, dimana target yang ditetapkan sebelumnya adalah dalam kisaran 10 triliun – 65 triliun Yen, walau masih sedikit diatas level terendahnya, paling tidak angka 50% dari kisaran tersebut seharusnya, sebagaimana diharapkan pasar, terjadi.

Bahkan sempat dikabarkan bahwa BoJ sepertinya mulai kehilangan independensi terhadap intervensi yang dilakukan mata uangnya; bukannya melakukan intervensi terhadap Yen (melakukan aksi jual Yen untuk memulihkan kondisi ekspor), justru melakukan penambahan dana untuk pembelian aset yang ternyata dibawah ekspektasi dan meluncurkan pinjaman dengan bunga yang rendah tanpa adanya batasan jumlah kepada sektor perbankan.

Hal itu menimbulkan pertanyaan tentunya, mengapa justru langkah yang kurang popular atau diluar kebiasaan justru dilakukan. Ini pula yang menyebabkan pasar merasa kecewa dengan langkah setengah hati yang dilakukan oleh Bank of Japan, dimana apabila diamati, yang dilakukan oleh BoJ serupa dengan langkah yang diambil oleh bank sentral AS, Federal Reserve Bank, yang alih-alih melonggarkan kebijakan, tetapi justru melakukan pembelian aset (yang sepertinya dengan dana yang terbatas).

Itu yang terjadi di Jepang. Sedangkan di AS sendiri, badai Sandy yang memporak-porandakan Wall Street beserta kota-kota besar disana seperti New York, New Jersey, Manhattan hingga sepanjang pantai menuju New England masih menyisakan duka yang mendalam dengan banyaknya korban berjatuhan dan potensi biaya yang harus dikeluarkan untuk mengembalikan kondisi disana seperti semula yang timbul dari masalah transportasi, infrastruktur dan perbankan.

Wall Street yang ditutup selama 2 hari pun masih menyisakan bagaimana perdagangan di bursa AS sempat sedikit tersendat, dihantui oleh adanya perbaikan yang mungkin akan menelan biaya dan waktu yang cukup banyak.

Badai Sandy pun masih menyisakan pertanyaan, apakah pemulihan perekonomian akan dapat berjalan dengan mulus, melihat bahwa adanya serangan badai Sandy sempat mencuatkan kemungkinan hambatan pemulihan dan mungkin akan berdampak terhadap rilis data tingkat tenaga kerja di AS. Apakah mungkin akan diluncurkan kembali stimulus.

Mungkin anggapan bahwa QE4 di AS tidaklah berlebihan bila dampak dari badai Sandy terus mempersuram keadaan pemulihan perekonomian disana. Kekhawatiran terhadap banjir di pusat kota New York dan kekhawatiran akan potensi kerusakan di fasilitas nuklir di AS sendiri bisa saja mencuatkan langkah-langkah pemulihan, menjelang pemilihan presiden AS. Secara garis besar, dapat disimpulkan bahwa stimulus-stimulus baru akan mulai bermunculan. Dan masih mampukah stimulus (dari AS) akan terus berjalan dalam menghadapi rilis data ekonomi sepanjang awal bulan baru? Hal ini masih harus diamati lebih jauh tentunya.

BBH: Yunani Masih Memegang Resiko Substansial

Meskipun berhasil meloloskan paket penghematan terbaru, pemerintah Yunani masih dihadapkan pada resiko yang substansial, menurut pandangan analis Brown Brothers Harriman pada hari Kamis. "Dibutuhkan persetujuan dari parlemen Jerman sebelum dana talangan dapat dikucurkan, dan dalam kondisi seperti itu pemerintah Yunani tidak dapat menjamin sepenuhnya tentang apa yang akan terjadi," kata analis BBH.

Sementara di tempat lain, mereka melihat resiko perpecahan yang kian besar. "Banyak kalangan, termasuk Kami, memprediksi jika bailout untuk Spanyol hampir tak terelakkan. Namun kenyataannya Rajoy masih terus mengulur waktu. Selain itu, Pemilou catalonia dalam beberapa pekan ke depan akan kian menyoroti kekuatan sentrifugal yang terlihat di seluruh Eropa (Skotlandia, Catalonia, Venesia dan kasus pengadilan Bavaria yang berupaya mengakhiri subsidi untuk daerah miskin di Jerman)."

Dengan perekonomian kawasan yang masih akan berkontraksi, maka satu-satunya harapan realistis yang tersisa adalah perlambatan ekonomi yang moderat dan singkat.

Untuk As, ekonomi masih akan terus terancam oleh "Fiscazl cliff" mengingat hasil pemilu kemarin belum mendatangkan perubahan secara substansial. Pasar juga masih menantikan keputusan kebijakan selanjutnya dari Federal reserve AS menjelang berakhirnya program Operation Twist dalam beberapa minggu mendatang.

Yield Obligasi Yunani Anjlok Ke Level Terendah

Yield obligasi Yunani berhasil melemah ke level terendah nya sejak restrukturisasi utang Yunani di awal tahun ini akibat spekulasi para investor bahwa Yunani dalam waktu dekat akan melakukan buy back surat utang dari para investor swasta.

Penurunan yield obligasi Yunani terpicu setelah Jerman memberikan sinyal di hari Rabu untuk menyetujui tambahan ekstra dana pinjaman ke Yunani sebesar 10 milyar Euro dalam program buy back surat utang Yunani sendiri dari para pemilih obligasi untuk mereduksi tumpukan hutangnya.

Terpantau sejauh ini Yield obligasi Yunani yang bergerak berlawanan dengan harga surat utang Yunani dilaporkan turun ke level 16.05% pada tenor 10-tahun.

Emas Sudah Mahal? Tunggu Hingga Mencapai $5,000: Schiff

Pemangkasan anggaran pengeluaran publik dengan kebijakan moneter yang sangat longgar oleh Federal Reserve dan bank sentral global lainnya akan memaksa emas ke $5,000 per ounce dalam waktu 2 tahun kedepan, catat seorang investor, Peter Schiff., dan menambahkan bahwa hany satu arah pergerakan emas dalam kurun waktu tersebut: NAIK. Dampak naiknya harga emas akan membuat orang menjauh dari emas sepertinya kurang tepat. Ia memperbarui kritiknya terkait kebijakan pembelian obligasi - dikombinasikan dengan kebijakan cheap money policy dari bank sentral utama tersebut - akhirnya akan menyalakan bara hiperinflasi dan menyebabkan devaluasi tajam dolar AS

Emas Stabil Ditengah Tingginya Permintaan Bank Sentral

Harga spot emas tidak banyak berubah di sesi Eropa seiring volum perdagangan yang tipis ditengah perayaan Thanksgiving di AS. Sementara itu harga logam mulia masih cukup tertipang namun belum ada katalis baru yang dapat memacu harga Emas untuk keluar dari range trading nya.

Di sesi sebelumnya, harga Emas tertopang oleh berita bahwa berbagai bank sentral dunia telah membeli Emas lebih banyak dibanding yang mereka jual selama bulan Oktober mengindikasikan laju Permintaan yang kuat dari pasar negara berkembang. Brazil melakukan pembelian masif Emas dibulan lalu, sehingga cadangan emasnya mencapai level tertinggi baru dalam 1 dekade terakhir. Selain itu permintaan Emas China yang meningkat juga secara keseluruhan menopang harga Emas stabil di teritori positif.

Terpantau sejauh in harga spot Emas menguat 0.11% di level $1,730.72, setelah meraih titik tertinggi intraday di $1,732.39 dan level terendah hariannya di $1,728.69.

Technical Analysis, November 8th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2660-1.2870	Down	1.2940	1.2730		1.2800	1.2660	1.2870
			1.2870	1.2660
USD/JPY	79.10-80.90	Up	80.90	79.10	79.70		80.90	79.10
			80.30	78.50
GBP/USD	1.5870-1.6080	Down	1.6150	1.5940		1.6010	1.5870	1.6080
			1.6080	1.5870
USD/CHF	0.9350-0.9560	Up	0.9560	0.9350	0.9420		0.9560	0.9350
			0.9490	0.9280
AUD/USD	1.0290-1.0500	Down	1.0570	1.0360		1.0430	1.0290	1.0500
			1.0500	1.0290
NIKKEI	8680-8890	Down	8960	8750		8820	8680	8890
			8890	8680
HANGSENG	21770-22130	Down	22250	21890		22010	21770	22130
			22130	21770
KOSPI	250.70-254.30	Down	255.50	251.90		253.10	250.70	254.30
			254.30	250.70
GOLD	1701.70-1726.40	Up	1726.40	1701.70	1709.90		1726.40	1701.70
			1718.20	1963.40