Selasa, 21 Agustus 2012

Fundamental Analysis, August 21st, 2012

Euro edges up but vulnerable in thin summer trade

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday in quiet summer trade as uncertainty about the scope of possible European Central Bank action to contain the region's debt crisis had investors wary of placing large bets. Speculation the ECB will restart its bond-buying program to bring down the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy has helped the euro rise from an over two-year low of $1.2040 hit in late July, but the single currency has been highly susceptible to bouts of selling since then.

The euro earlier slipped after the ECB brushed aside a report in Germany's Der Spiegel magazine that it was considering setting yield thresholds for any moves to buy the bonds of the euro zone's struggling sovereign debtors.
The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.2342, nearer to the session peak of $1.2368 than the session low of $1.2293 , though it stayed within the $1.2240-1.2450 trading range seen in recent weeks.
Against the yen, the euro fell 0.1 percent to 97.96 yen , but it hovered near a six-week high of 98.40 yen hit on Friday.
The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 79.38 yen , after having hit a five-week high of 79.66 yen in early Asian trade. Despite the recent move, analysts said the dollar should continue to gain from improvements in U.S. economic data that have lifted Treasury debt yields.

Wall St flat after rally; Apple biggest company ever

U.S. stocks were flat on Monday on signs of fatigue after a six-week run of gains as the European Central Bank quelled speculation about the form of market intervention that may be taken to stem the region's debt crisis. Despite the lethargic trading, Apple Inc shares hit a new high, becoming the most valuable public company of all time, with the combined value of its shares exceeding a previous record set by Microsoft. Shares closed up 2.6 percent to $665.15.

The S&P 500 remains close to a four-year high, rising nearly 5 percent in the past six weeks. Investors had been waiting for the ECB to take steps to control the euro crisis in September. Last week, the index broke away from the 1,400 level where it had stalled for much of August.

German magazine Der Spiegel said over the weekend the ECB is considering setting interest rate thresholds for any purchases of a struggling euro zone country's bonds. A bank spokesman said it was misleading to report on decisions that still had not been taken.

Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, also reiterated its opposition to bond purchases. A spokesman for the German Finance Ministry said it was not aware of any plans for the ECB to target bond spreads. Facebook Inc shares briefly fell more than 50 percent from its issue price to hit a new low of $18.75. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shed 3.48 points, or 0.03 percent, to 13,271.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dipped 0.07 points, or 0.00 percent, to 1,418.09. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 0.38 points, or 0.01 percent, to 3,076.21.

Platinum hits 2-month high on S.Africa supply fear

Platinum prices jumped nearly 2 percent on Monday, hitting a two-month high after deadly violence at a mine in top producer South Africa triggered heavy speculative buying on supply worries. Bullion prices edged up as trading volume for U.S. gold futures was on track to hit a 2012 low, while silver jumped almost 3 percent as platinum's rally triggered short-covering.

Investors bought platinum on worries that mines in South Africa may produce less of the metal after 44 people were killed during a strike at the Marikana mine owned by Lonmin , which accounts for 12 percent of global platinum output. The metal soared 7 percent in the past three sessions, bringing its year-to-date gain to 7 percent, which means platinum has outperformed gold, silver and copper so far in 2012.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,620.74 an ounce by 3:03 p.m. EDT (1903 GMT).
U.S. December gold futures for December delivery settled up $3.60 an ounce at $1,623.

Oil Holds Near Three-Month High as Europe Discusses Debt

Oil in New York was little changed near a three-month high amid concern that European leaders will fail to calm the region’s sovereign debt crisis and as the dollar slipped against the euro. Futures fell for the first time in five days after Germany’s Bundesbank stepped up criticism of the European Central Bank’s plan to embark on potentially “unlimited” government bond purchases. Europe’s leaders plan a week of shuttle diplomacy to help resolve the situation. The dollar weakened against the euro for the second time in three days.

“The market is rather listless,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “There’s not any news that’s going to move the market strongly in either direction. Crude oil for September delivery fell 4 cents to settle at $95.97 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In intraday trading, the contract reached $96.53, the highest level since May 11. September oil expires tomorrow. The more actively traded October contract declined 6 cents to $96.26.
 
Brent oil for October settlement dropped 1 cent to settle at $113.70 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade’s premium to West Texas Intermediate crude traded in New York rose 5 cents to $17.44.

Nikkei seen rangebound after 3-month high amid ECB uncertainty

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to tread in range on Tuesday after hitting a three-month high the previous day, as the European Central Bank quashed speculation about the form of its bond-buying programme to combat the region's debt crisis.

Expectations that the ECB would take bold action to tackle the euro zone sovereign debt crisis have helped the Nikkei rebound 10 percent from a seven-week low touched on July 25. The Nikkei is up 8.5 percent so far this year.

But the market is still awaiting further details of the ECB's plans, and there are signs of fatigue after the sharp run-up. U.S. stocks were flat overnight, although Apple Inc shares hit a new high, becoming the most valuable public company of all time.

The Nikkei <.N225> is likely to trade between 9,150 and 9,250, strategists said. Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 9,190 on Monday, unchanged from the Osaka close. On Monday, the benchmark inched up 0.1 percent to 9,171.16, hitting a three-month closing high for the second straight session and breaking above its 26-week moving average at 9,150.04. The broader Topix <.TOPX> slipped 0.2 percent to 764.66 in thin trade on Monday, with the fourth lowest volume this year.

Seoul shares seen steady; ECB coy on intervention

Seoul shares are expected to start little changed on Tuesday, with investors awaiting further clues about any action from the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease the region's fiscal crisis. An ECB spokesman downplayed reports from German magazine Der Spiegel that the bank was planning to set a cap on bond yields above which it would buy government debt issued by member states. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> ticked 0.01 percent lower to close at 1,946.31 points on Monday.

Expectations that the ECB will step in to ease crippling borrowing costs in Spain and Italy have taken the KOSPI to a string of three-month highs in August, until signs of fatigue brought the rally to a halt since last Friday.

Hong Kong shares seen higher, CNOOC, Belle earnings eyed

Hong Kong shares may edge up on Tuesday, but gains are seen capped at resistance that have bounded the Hang Seng Index for the past two weeks, with investors' focus likely trained mainly on corporate earnings, Chinese oil giant CNOOC Ltd <0883.HK>, China-focused footwear distributor Belle International <1880.HK> and China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group <1101.HK> are among companies expected to post their second-quarter results.

On Monday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> edged down 0.06 percent to 20,104.27, paring midday losses to return above the 20,000-point level. Chart resistance is seen at around 20,300, which has capped gains on the benchmark index for more than two weeks.

Turnover neared 2012 lows, but short selling interest stayed high. Shorts accounted for 11 percent of total turnover on Monday, above the historical 8 percent average.  Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.1 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.4 percent at 0045 GMT.


Source : Reuters


Technical Analysis, August 21th, 2012

CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2250-1.2430
Up
1.2430
1.2250
1.2310

1.2430
1.2250
1.2370
1.2190
USD/JPY
78.50-80.00
Down
80.50
79.00

79.50
78.50
80.00
80.00
78.50
GBP/USD
1.5620-1.5800
Up
1.5800
1.5620
1.5680

1.5800
1.5620
1.5740
1.5560
USD/CHF
0.9630-0.9810
Down
0.9870
0.9690

0.9750
0.9630
0.9810
0.9810
0.9630
AUD/USD
1.0360-1.0540
Up
1.0540
1.0360
1.0420

1.0540
1.0360
1.0480
1.0300
NIKKEI
9070-9250
Down
9310
9130

9190
9070
9250
9250
9070
HANGSENG
20030-20210
Down
20270
20090

20150
20030
20210
20210
20030
KOSPI
259.15-260.95
Down
261.55
259.75

260.35
259.15
260.95
260.95
259.15
GOLD
1606.80-1630.80
Down
1638.80
1614.80

1622.80
1606.80
1630.80
1630.80
1608.80

Emas Stabil Terkait Ketidakpastian ECB

Emas Stabil Terkait Ketidakpastian ECBKetidakpastian terkait kebijakan bank sentral Eropa membuat sentiment untuk Emas terhenti. Spot emas tidak banyak mengalami perubahan di angka $1,619.46. Kontrak emas AS untuk bulan Desember diperdagangkan nyaris flat di $1,621.80. Bank sentral Eropa hari Senin berusaha untuk memupus spekulasi mengenai bentuk program pembelian obligasi yang akan dilakukan, mengatakan adanya ketidaksepahaman mengenai pembahasan tersebut masih belum diputuskan.

Emas Mencapai Level Tertinggi Sejak Pertengahan Juni

Emas Mencapai Level Tertinggi Sejak Pertengahan Juni Emas menguat karena harga Platinum melonjak hampir 2 persen pada hari Senin, menyentuh harga tertinggi dalam dua bulan terakhir, setelah adanya kerusuhan di sebuah tambang produsen top di Afrika Selatan, sehingga memicu pembelian spekulatif  karena hawatir akan berkurangnya pasokan. Investor membeli platinum karena khawatir bahwa tambang di Afrika Selatan berkurang produksinya, setelah 44 orang tewas dalam serangan di Tambang Marikana, Lonmin’s, yang menyumbang 12 persen dari total produksi platinum dunia.

"Pasar yang overbought dapat dengan mudah mendapatkan lebih banyak overbought sebelum mereka turun," kata Adam Sarhan, CEO Sarhan Capital. Penguatan platinum sebagai momentum untuk pembelian kelompok logam, setelah platinum naik ke level tertinggi dalam dua bulan terakhir dan ini menguatkan nilai kelompok logam, Sarhan menambahkan. Deutsche Bank mengatakan dalam sebuah catatannya, bahwa pasar platinum diperkirakan surplus untuk 2012 "dapat terhapus dengan mudah" jika masih terjadi kekerasan tenaga kerja di Lonmin atau jika kerusuhan menyebar ke tambang lainnya.

Bank Sentral Russia Tambah Cadangan Devisa Emas

Bank Sentral Russia Tambah Cadangan Devisa EmasRussia dilaporkan menambah cadangan devisa emas nya sebesar 0.6 juta troy ons selama bulan Juli, sehingga mencapai total kepemilikan Emas sebesar 30.1 juta troy ons. Nilai kepemilikan ini juga bertambah menjadi $48.7 milyar dari sebelumnya $46.3 milyar pada akhir Juni. Bank sentral juga mengekspektasikan untuk terus menambah pembelian Emas di pasar domestik sepanjang tahun 2012 ini.

Optimisme Pasar Picu Emas Berkilau

Optimisme Pasar Picu Emas Berkilau Harga Emas dunia kembali melanjutkan rally beriringan dengan apresiasi Euro di hari Senin (20/08) hingga meraup gain ke level $1619.90/troy ons terutama berkat optimisme terhadap harapan bahwa para pembuat kebijakan Eropa dengan tegas akan menangani krisis utang zona euro.

Sentimen kian menguat setelah Jerman melalui Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel mendukung sepenuhnya atas langkah ECB dalam memerangi krisis hutang di blok Eropa tersebut. Dukungan Merkel terhadap ECB-Draghi tersebut menambah optimisme pasar dan membangkitkan harapan bahwa pemimpin di Eropa akan menemukan solusi krisis, sehingga otomatis memicu aksi beli aset beresiko.

Namun demikian nasib emas sebagaian besar tergantung pada sikap sejumlah bank sentral dunia terhadap pelonggaran moneter tambahan, terutama seiring anjloknya permintaan fisik global, terutama di India dan Cina. Harga Emas kini terpantau cukup kuat pada kisaran $1618.30/troy ons setelah mencatat level rendah harian pada $1616.43.

Terkait Aksi Mogok Lonmin, Emas Stabil

Terkait Aksi Mogok Lonmin, Emas StabilSpot Emas sedikit berubah pada angka $1,617.06 per ounce, setelah membukukan kejatuhan sebesar 0.3 persen pekan lalu. Emas AS diperdagangkan hampir flat di $1,619.50.

Investor masih mengamati pemogokan di Afrika Selatan dari Lonmin, produsen platinum no.3 dunia, di mana 44 orang tewas dalam kekerasan yang berlangsung selama sepekan.

Pekerja yang mogok menghadapi pemecatan jika mereka tidak kembali bekerja pada hari Senin, dikatakan juru bicara perusahaan tersebut. Para hedge fund dan fund manager mengurangi posisi mereka di emas berjangka dan option emas untuk minggu kedua berturut-turut, karena investor mengurangi perkiraan bullish mereka karena keraguan atas stimulus moneter oleh Federal Reserve.

Sentimen konsumen AS membaik pada awal Agustus ke level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan karena membaiknya retail sales disana dan suku bunga KPR yang rendah mendorong para warga Amerika untuk meningkatkan rencana pembelian mereka, ditunjukkan sebuah survei, Jumat.

Kamis, 16 Agustus 2012

Fundamental Analysis, August 16th, 2012

Upturn in US retail sales lifts dollar, yen slumps broadly

Investors bought U.S. dollars and sold yen o n Tuesday after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data tempered expectations the Federal Reserve would resort to printing more money to stimulate the economy. The euro rallied against the yen as well, but held nearly unchanged on the greenback as marginally better-than-expected German and French economic output data was not enough to stop the broader euro zone economy from contracting in the second quarter.

U.S. data showed retail sales rose for the first time in four months in July, a sign that consumers could drive faster economic growth in the third quarter. The dollar hit a global session peak of 78.93 <JPY=> yen, its highest since July 18. It last traded at 78.75, up 0.57 percent on the day, according to Reuters data. The euro last traded at 97.07 yen <EURJPY=>, up 0.5 percent on the day.

"The reports suggest that the U.S. economy continues to grow, although at a slow pace. The numbers moreover reduce the possibility of Fed action at the next meeting," said Vassili Serebriakov, senior currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. "As a result, we're seeing dollar/yen move higher because this is the pair most sensitive to interest rate expectations," he said.

Fatigued Wall St ends flat on low volume

U.S. stocks ended little changed o n Tuesday in what investors described as a fatigued market after the S&P 500 rose in seven of the past eight sessions. Retailers were a notable standout after Home Depot <HD.N> raised its profit forecast due to improvement in the housing market and U.S. retail sales data that was stronger than expected, though earlier figures were revised lower. The S&P Retail Index <.RLX> rose 0.9 percent, giving an early boost to the market.

"For the past week or two, the market rally has been largely driven by the absence of sellers and complacency that things will be OK until the end of the month, at least," said James Dailey, portfolio manager at TEAM Asset Strategy fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 2.71 points, or 0.02 percent, to 13,172.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 0.18 point, or 0.01 percent, at 1,403.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 5.54 points, or 0.18 percent, at 3,016.98.

Gold down as U.S. retail sales dampen easing hopes

Gold slid on Tuesday as healthy U.S. retail sales data prompted bullion investors to scale back their bets based on expectations of an imminent stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Bullion dropped as much as 1 percent after data showed U.S. retail sales rose in July for the first time in four months. Demand climbed broadly for everything from cars to electronics, a sign consumers could drive faster economic growth in the third quarter.

"Better economic figures may make the Fed postpone or do away with additional stimulus," said George Gero, vice president of RBC Capital Markets. A failed to decisively break above $1,625 prompted traders to elect stop-loss orders at prices below support the $1,600, Gero said. U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> for December delivery settled down $10.20 an ounce at $1,602.40.

Oil Rises as U.S. Retail Sales Beat Forecasts

Crude snapped a two-day decline in New York on better-than-expected economic reports from the U.S. and Germany. Prices climbed 0.8 percent after the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales increased for the first time in four months. The German economy slowed less than forecast in the second quarter, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said.

“The decent retail sales number is another signal that U.S. economic growth is a little bit better,” said Chris Barber, a senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “At this point, oil investors are looking for any sort of positive news.” Oil for September delivery advanced 70 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $93.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 20 percent from this year’s settlement low of $77.69 on June 28.

Nikkei set to rise, softer yen to boost exporters

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to open higher on Wednesday, driven by exporters as the yen weakened against the dollar and the euro after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and German economic growth. Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,940 on Tuesday, up 0.1 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,930.

The benchmark Nikkei is up 5.6 percent so far this year, underperforming a 10 percent rise in the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index even though the region is grappling with a sovereign debt crisis. The U.S. S&P 500 <.INX> has risen 11.6 percent this year. Japan has replaced the euro zone as the largest region in which fund managers are underweight equities in the latest monthly asset manager survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Hong Kong shares seen higher, StanChart eyed after NY regulator deal

Hong Kong shares may start slightly higher on Wednesday, with stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales likely to boost exporter names such as Li & Fung <0494.HK>. Standard Chartered Plc <STAN.L><2888.HK> will be in focus after the British-based bank reached a $340 million settlement with New York's bank regulator over transactions linked to Iran. Companies releasing first-half earnings later in the day include Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings <0700.HK>, Tsingtao Brewery <0168.HK> and China Yurun Food <1068.HK>.

On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed up 1.1 percent at 20,291.7, but gains were capped below last Thursday's high at 20,300. This is also the top end of a 240-point range in which the benchmark has moved for seven sessions.  Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was flat at 0042 GMT. South Korean financial markets are closed for a national holiday.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, August 16th, 2012


CURRENCY
RANGE
TREND
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
BUY
SELL
OBJ
CUT
EUR/USD
1.2200-1.2370
Down
1.2430
1.2250

1.2310
1.2200
1.2370
1.2370
1.2190
USD/JPY
78.10-79.80
Up
79.90
78.10
78.70

79.80
78.10
79.30
77.50
GBP/USD
1.5590-1.5770
Down
1.5830
1.5650

1.5710
1.5590
1.5770
1.5770
1.5590
USD/CHF
0.9690-0.9860
Up
0.9870
0.9690
0.9750

0.9860
0.9690
0.9810
0.9630
AUD/USD
1.0400-1.0570
Down
1.0630
1.0450

1.0510
1.0400
1.0570
1.0570
1.0390
NIKKEI
8900-9080
Up
9090
8900
8960

9080
8900
9020
8840
HANGSENG
19880-20060
Down
20120
19940

20000
19880
20060
20060
19870
KOSPI
261.20-263.00
Up
263.10
261.20
261.80

263.00
261.20
262.40
260.60
GOLD
1594.80-1617.30
Down
1624.80
1602.30

1609.80
1594.80
1617.30
1617.30
1594.80