Emas Pantau Negosiasi Jurang Fiskal AS

Emas tidak banyak berubah di sesi London seiring investor terus memantau perkembangan negosiasi politikus AS untuk menemukan solusi atas jurang fiskal. Presiden Obama dan pimpinan Partai Republik di Kongres, John Boehner, masih belum menemukan kesepakatan akan cara terbaik untuk mengatasi jurang fiskal. Jika solusi tidak dapat ditemukan sebelum penutupan tahun maka ekonomi AS dapat kembali jatuh ke dalam jurang resesi. Bahkan bagusnya data manufaktur Cina tidak banyak memberikan dampak positif untuk logam mulia. Indeks manufaktur Cina (versi HSBC) naik ke level 50.9 untuk bulan Desember; lebih baik dari publikasi sebelumnya 50.5. Menipisnya likuiditas menjelang penutupan tahun juga turut berkontribusi atas kurangnya momentum pergerakan pasar. Permintaan fisik dari perusahaan perhiasan juga tidak terlalu banyak. "Perusahaan perhiasan tidak begitu tertarik untuk membeli di kisaran harga sekarang," ujar dealer Singapura yang diwawancarai Reuters. "Ada persepsi jika harga emas dapat jatuh di bawah level psikologis $1700 maka akan ada ruang penurunan yang lebih dalam lagi."

Fundamental Analysis

Euro slides on rate-cut hopes after ECB decision
The euro was on track for its sharpest decline against the dollar in a month on Thursday after comments from the European Central Bank chief and a downgrade to the region's growth and inflation forecasts boosted expectations of an interest rate cut.
Political chaos in Italy drove Italian bond yields higher and added to losses in the euro. Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party withdrew its support for Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday, setting up a conflict that could force an early election.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at a news conference after the bank's decision to keep its main interest rate at 0.75 percent, said a wide discussion on rates had preceded the consensus decision to leave them on hold.
Draghi also said policymakers discussed setting a negative rate on the ECB's deposit facility in an attempt to encourage banks not to hoard cash at the ECB but lend it into the real economy instead.
Draghi's comments came as the ECB predicted the euro zone economy would shrink again in 2013 and sharply lowered its growth and inflation forecasts. It also said risks to growth remained on the downside.

Apple's gains lift tech in quiet day before jobs data
U.S. stocks closed modestly higher on Thursday, a day ahead of the key monthly jobs report, as a rebound in shares of Apple helped boost technology shares.
Investors are also keeping watch on the "fiscal cliff" negotiations in Washington to see if lawmakers can reach a deal to avoid a series of spending cuts and tax hikes beginning in January.
Apple climbed 1.6 percent to $547.24, reversing losses incurred at the open. The stock was coming off its biggest one-day drop in four years on Wednesday, which occurred on concerns about higher capital gains taxes in 2013 and the company's tablet computer market share.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 39.55 points, or 0.30 percent, to 13,074.04 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 4.66 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,413.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 15.57 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 2,989.27.

Gold up on ECB rate cut talk, non-farm payrolls eyed
Gold rose on Thursday on short-covering before a U.S. employment  report and after comments from the European Central Bank chief boosted expectations of an interest rate cut.
Bullion buying took off after ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro zone economy was likely to shrink next year as it has in 2012, and downside risks to growth prevailed for the region battered by a prolonged debt crisis.
The metal rebounded from the previous session's one-month low but gains faced resistance from technical selling around its 100-day moving average near $1,700 an ounce. Sharp losses in euro and crude futures also limited gold's gains.
 Funds have been liquidating of late as open interest in U.S. gold futures, a gauge of market activity, fell to a three-month low.
U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCG3> for February delivery settled up $8 an ounce at $1,701.80, with trading volume around 25 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Oil falls on euro zone concerns, dollar strength
Oil prices fell on Thursday after the head of the European Central Bank said the euro zone's economic outlook faces "downside risk" and a recovery may not happen until later in 2013.
European economic woes could crimp global demand for oil, and investors also remain wary of budget negotiations among lawmakers in the United States. If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement within three weeks, around $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts would be triggered for 2013.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.75 percent on Thursday and its president, Mario Draghi, warned of more weakness in the single-currency area.
The euro weakened and the dollar rose more than 0.6 percent against a basket of currencies. A stronger U.S. currency usually pressures dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
U.S. January crude <CLc1> lost $1.62 a barrel to settle at $86.26, posting a fourth straight day of losses.

Nikkei set to tread in range ahead of U.S. jobs data
Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to tread in range on Friday after closing above the key
9,500-mark for the first time in seven months in the previous session and ahead of U.S. jobs data.
The Nikkei has rallied 10.2 percent over the past 3-1/2 weeks as the yen has weakened after Shinzo Abe, the leader of the main opposition party which is expected to win a Dec. 16 general election, called for the Bank of Japan to embark on "unlimited easing" and set an inflation target of 2 percent.
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast 93,000 jobs were created in the United States last month compared with 171,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is seen at 7.9 percent.
The benchmark Nikkei is up 12.9 percent this year, in line with a 12.4 percent rise in the U.S. S&P 500 <.INX> but behind a 14 percent gain in the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 <.STOXX> index.

Seoul shares seen inching up as investors await U.S. data
Seoul shares are likely to edge up on Friday, tracing modest Wall Street gains as investors await
U.S. employment data and positive signs in budget talks. 
"The main board is expected to rise on Friday, but gains will be limited in the absence of game-changing events since the last session as we await upcoming U.S. employment data and the
weekend," said Cho Byung-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.
Global shares edged higher on Thursday, with U.S. stocks modestly advancing as investors watched for signs of progress in the "fiscal cliff" talks.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> edged up 0.13 percent to close at 1,949.62 points on Thursday, its highest closing level since October 18.

Hong Kong shares set for third-straight weekly gain
Hong Kong shares could post a third-straight weekly gain, but are expected to be relatively steady on Friday as investors await a U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the day.   
PICC Group <1339.HK> gained as much as 6.3 percent in grey market trading on Thursday, signalling expectations that the Chinese state-owned insurer will climb in its official debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday. [ID:nL4N09G1OQ]
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slipped 0.1 percent to 22,249.8 points, while the China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong rose 0.3 percent.
On the week, they are each up 1 and 2.3 percent respectively, set for a third-straight weekly gain. [ID:nL4N09G1NO]   
 Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 0.1 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.5 percent at 0108 GMT.


Source : Reuters

Laporan Tenaga Kerja AS Hijaukan Wall Street

Bursa saham AS menguat, menyusul rally 2 harian pada indeks Standard & Poor’s 500, pasca data pemerintah yang menunjukkan perusahaan menambah pekerja lebih dari perkiraan dan tingkat pengangguran turun diluar dugaan.

“Laporan tenaga kerja itu bagus,” ucap Michael Mullaney kepala bagian investasi pada Fiduciary Trust di Boston. “Payrolls masih belum mencapai 250,000, namun lebih baik daripada ekspektasi. Data tersebut mematahkan ekspektasi orang banyak bahwa Sandy dan fiscal cliff dapat berdampak pada sektor tenaga kerja.”

ECB Berdebat Mengenai Pemangkasan Suku Bunga

Salah satu pejabat European Central Bank pada hari Jumat mengatakan ECB berdebat serius mengenai pemangkasan tingkat suku bunga pekan ini dan mungkin akan memangkas tingkat suku bunga tahun depan jika perekonomian zona euro tidak membaik. Bank sentral Jerman dan Austria mengatakan kemungkinan tidak akan ada kemajuan, memperkirakan pertumbuhan stagnan di tahun 2013. ECB mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga pada hari Kamis, namun anggota Dewan Kebijakan menggelar diskusi mengenai pemangkasan tingkat suku bunga dari rekor rendah saat ini 0.75%.

Jozef Makuch, salah satu anggota dewan, menyebutkan debat tersebut sangat sesrius. "Jika situasi tidak membaik, dan kemungkinan kecil adanya kemajuan yang signifikan, mungkin ada perubahan tingkat suku bunga tahun depan," ucap Makuch, yang juga merupakan gubernur bank sentral Slovakia.

Sentimen Konsumen AS Turun

Buruknya kerusakan yang diakibatkan oleh badai Sandy di pesisir timur AS sepertinya berhasil mengurangi optimisme konsumen. Ini terlihat dari turunnya indeks sentimen konsumen ke level 74.5 untuk bulan Desember; lebih rendah dari prediksi 82.4 dan publikasi sebelumnya 82.7. Indeks Dow Jones kurangi penguatan setelah data dirilis. Dow kini diperdagangkan 13096, coba menjauhi level tinggi harian 13139.

2013, China Temukan Momentumnya Lagi

Kabar baik bagi mitra dagang negeri tirai bambu. Laju perekonomian China diyakini membaik mulai tahun depan berkat pelonggaran moneter agresif yang diambil pemerintah Beijing. 

Pertumbuhan ekonomi China tahun 2013 diperkirakan mencapai 8,2% atau di atas ekspektasi pertumbuhan tahun 2012 yang sebesar 7,7%. Faktor utama dari kalkulasi tersebut tak lain adalah harapan akan munculnya kebijakan moneter super longgar dari pemerintah pusat. Demikian hasil studi Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Dalam hasil penelitian 'buku biru'-nya, CASS melihat ada kemungkinan pemerintah melakukan aksi agresif untuk menolong perekonomian. Di antaranya adalah dengan menaikkan anggaran belanja dan memangkas pajak-pajak yang dianggap menghambat gairah ekonomi. Pemerintah China sendiri belum merilis proyeksi GDP resmi untuk tahun 2013, namun status CASS sebagai lembaga peneliti andalan negara dianggap cukup valid untuk memberikan kisi-kisi ekonomi dari kacamata pemerintah. "Kami sangat optimis dengan apa yang akan terjadi tahun depan. Namun China harus mewaspadai risiko dan mempersiapkan kebijakan antisipatif," demikian ulasan CASS.

Rekomendasi lembaga tersebut sejalan dengan rencana pemerintah pusat untuk mematok rencana ekonomi yang lebih mumpuni tahun depan. Di dalamnya termasuk memberi ruang bagi pergerakan harga produk dasar dan meningkatkan reformasi pajak berbasis pertambahan nilai. Otoritas juga berencana mengatur pasar perumahan sekaligus merombak badan usaha milik negara (BUMN), sebagaimana dikatakan oleh pemimpin Partai Komunis berkuasa, Xi Jinping.

Di penghujung tahun 2012, mulai tampak beberapa sinyal pemulihan penting di negara China. Salah satu indikator yang kinerjanya menonjol adalah survei Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Laporan PMI awal pekan ini memperlihatkan bahwa performa sektor menufaktur terus membaik dalam level yang sangat cepat. "China masih memiliki ruang untuk melakukan manuver kebijakan yang lebih mendukung perekonomian," demikian urai CASS dalam rilisnya.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi tahunan China merosot jadi 7,4% di kuartal III ini. Laju perekonomian sudah melambat selama 7 triwulan berturut-turut sehingga memicu kecemasan pelaku bisnis global. Namun perekonomian diperkirakan tumbuh sampai akhir kuartal IV 2012, seiring meningkatnya kativitas bisnis di bulan Oktober dan September. Pelonggaran moneter berantai yang diberlakukan pemerintah Beijing selama beberapa bulan terakhir terbukti mampu menggenjot gairah bisnis. CASS memperkirakan inflasi China naik ke 3,3% tahun depan, dengan pertumbuhan ekspor 10% dan kenaikan impor 13,7%.

Emas Lanjutkan Penguatan Terkait Harapan Untuk ECB

Harga emas bergerak naik hari Jumat, melanjutkan penguatan dari sesi sebelumnya ketika emas terangkat oleh harapan suku bunga dari bank sentral Eropa, ECB, tetapi emas sempat bergerak turun ke rendahnya dalam 2 pekan berturut-turut.

Spot emas bergerak naik 0.2% menjadi $1,701.56 per ounce, sejalan dengan kejatuhan sebanyak 0.8% untuk pekan ini dalam kejatuhannya selama 2 pekan.

Kontrak emas tidak banyak mengalami pergerakan di angka $1,701.20.

Perekonomian Eropa cenderung akan menyusut di 2013, demikian perkiraan dari bank sentral Eropa hari Kamis kemarin, secara drastis menurunkan perkiraan pemangkasan suku bunga yang tercatat rendah di 0.75%. Ekspektasi mulai terbentuk untuk pemangkasan suku bunga ECB dalam kontraksi ekonomi disana.

The Fed Siap Lanjutkan Serial Stimulus Ekonomi

Federal Reserve Bank Amerika akan mengumumkan serial pembelian obligasi baru pada pertemuannya pekan depan. Otoritas tidak akan memperketat kebijakan agar laju perekonomian dapat kembali optimal meski masih terkendala isu fiscal cliff.

Hal tersebut adalah ekspektasi sebagian besar ekonom di Amerika Serikat yang menilai adanya kebutuhan intervensi bank sentral ke dalam sektor perekonomian. Pada pertemuan 11-12 Desember mendatang, the Fed diprediksi meluncurkan pembelian obligasi bulanan sebesar $45 miliar. Kebijakan itu sesuai dengan kehendak Ben S. Bernanke dan kolega yang ingin terus memompa dana segar ke sistem perekonomian agar angka pengangguran turun konsisten. Jumlah tersebut adalah sama dengan apa yang sudah digelontorkan selama ini, meski the Fed bisa saja menambah porsi pembelian apabila mereka menginginkannya. 

Keputusan itu nantinya akan memperkuat kombinasi aksi borong obligasi negara dan sektor perumahan senilai $85 miliar per bulan. Segala kebijakan anyar nantinya diberlakukan dalam iklim suku bunga rendah dekat nol persen sampai pertengahan 2015 mendatang. Tidak hanya itu, masih ada kemungkinan bagi bank sentral untuk meluncurkan pembelian obligasi dalam jumlah yang lebih besar apabila otoritas menginginkan penurunan bunga obligasi negara ke level lebih rendah lagi.

Meski masa pemberlakuan operation twist berakhir tahun ini, bank sentral sudah memberi sinyal untuk terus memperlonggar kebijakan moneternya. Di bawah program twist, the Fed memborong $45 miliar obligasi per bulan dari dana penjualan obligasi jangka lebih pendek yang dimilikinya. Apabila ditambah dengan nilai pembelian surat hutang berbasis kredit perumahan senilai $40 miliar per bulan yang diumumkan Spetember lalu, maka neraca keuangan bank sentral akan bertambah $1,2 triliun menjadi $4 triliun di akhir 2013 nanti. Dengan catatan, the Fed terus melakukan pembelian dalam frekuensi yang sama hingga seterusnya.

Tingkat pengangguran di Amerika masih berkutat di level 7,9% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun depan juga diperkirakan hanya sebesar 2%. Olah karena itu tidak ada alasan sama sekali bagi pemerintah untuk memperlambat laju stimulus dalam waktu dekat.

OECD: Ekspor Yang Lemah Masih Batasi Rebound Ekonomi China

OECD juga memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi China di hari Selasa, dengan argument krisis zona Euro yang masih belum terselesaikan sehingga berpeluang menekan laju permintaan ekspor China dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.

Meskipun sudah ada indikasi kenaikan laju ekonomi China setelah melambat dalam 3 tahun terakhir disertai dengan kenaikan investasi infrastruktur dan investasi, namun rebound diperkirakan hanya berlangsung sesaat dan memperingatkan laju ekspor yang lemah akan menjadi faktor utama bagi China.

Menegaskan resiko pertumbuhan tersebut, OECD memangkas laju pertumbuhan ekonomi China menjadi 8.5 persen di tahun berikutnya, turun dari prediksi sebelumnya sebesar 9.3%. Dengan laju ekspor tidak mampu melampaui 9 persen dalam dua tahun kedepan.

Secara keseluruhan China dan ekonomi emerging markets lainnya masih belum kebal terhadap kejutan resesi zona Euro.

Schaeuble Minta Parlemen Setujui Kesepakatan Yunani Minggu ini

Menteri keuangan Jerman Wolfgang Schaeuble mengatakan pada hari ini (Selasa) bahwa dia telah meminta kepada anggota parlemen untuk memberikan persetujuan mereka pada  minggu ini terhadap bantuan Yunani yang tertunda, setelah para menteri keuangan Uni Eropa mencapai kesepakatan semalam atas keberlanjutan utang Yunani.

“Kami membutuhkan persetujuan parlemen dari negara-negara anggota, termasuk Jerman dan kami akan mengirim rincian programnya ke DPR untuk mendapatkan persetujuan,”katanya kepada wartawan.”Saya meminta persetujuan ini akan keluar minggu ini jika memungkinkan, tetapi saya tidak tahu kapan DPR akan menjadwalkannya.”

Anggota parlemen dari koalisi Kanselir Angela Merkel dan partai oposisi Social Democrat and Greens mengatakan mereka akan mendukung kebijakan tersebut, meskipun dicurigai  bahwa persetujuan utang tersebut akan ditunda sampai pemilu Jerman pada September 2013.

Emas Masih Bullish, Support 1738

Harga emas bergerak sideways kemarin di antara 1745-1752. Pandangan masih bullish melihat dari pola inverted head and shoulder yang terbentuk. Level 1738 menjadi level support yang penting karena level ini adalah level neckline dari pola inverted head and shoulder tersebut. Sementara penembusan 1754 (level tertinggi Jumat 23 Nov 2012) membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan ke area resisten berikutnya di kisaran 1770.

Pengumuman keputusan pengucuran dana bailout untuk Yunani melegakan pasar keuangan dan ini memberikan momentum positif ke pasar. Namun kini terlihat pergerakan “buy on rumor, sell on fact”, dimana para pelaku pasar melakukan aksi jual setelah berita keluar. Meski demikian, pandangan bullish untuk pergerakan harga emas masih terlihat.

Fed's Fisher Pulihkan Dollar

Dollar menguat setelah Fed's Fisher lanjurkan bank sentral AS untuk mengakhiri Operation Twist pada bulan Desember. Operation Twist merupakan program Fed untuk membeli obligasi pemerintah AS bertenor jangka panjang dan menjual obligasi pemerintah AS bertenor jangka pendek. Operation Twist dijadwalkan berakhir di bulan Desember dan Fed's Fisher tegaskan ketidak-inginannya untuk melanjutkan program tersebut. "Saya mempertanyakan efektivitas program tersebut," ujar Presiden Fed of Dallas.  Fed's Fisher juga utarakan agar Federal Reserve tidak melanjutkan program pembelian obligasi berbasis kredit perumahan (KPR). Pada bulan September, Fed telah umumkan program pembelian obligasi berbasis KPR sebanyak $40 juta per bulan hingga kondisi tenaga kerja AS membaik. "Saya rasa Fed tidak perlu bertindak lebih jauh," tutur Fed's Fisher.

Emas Bergerak Tak Menentu Paska Deal Yunani

Emas terombang ambing diantara teritori positif dan negatif seiring kesepakatan bailout Yunani berhasil lemahkan Dollar namun di lain sisi permintaan Emas dari India masih lemah. Sedangkan Perak telah tembus ke level tertinggi 6-minggu nya.

Indeks Dollar AS jatuh ke level terendah 3-minggu setelah para menteri keuangan zona Euro dan IMF sepakat untuk memangkas bunga pinjaman Yunani dan memperpanjang jatuh tempo pelunasan hutang Yunani. Efek ini sedikit terhapus setelah Presiden Fed Dallas, Richard Fisher menyatakan bahwa kebijakan moneter yang sangat akomodatif dari bank sentral AS perlu segera ditinggalkan.

Terpantau sejauh ini harga spot Emas melemah tipis -0.04% di level $1,747.92, setelah meraih titik tertinggi intraday di $1,751.64 dan level terendah hariannya di $1,745.68. Sedangkan kepemilikan ETF Gold meningkat 0.7 metrik ton menuju rekor baru 2,607 ton, berdasarkan data yang dikompilasi oleh Bloomberg.

Emas Pasif Setelah Tercapainya Kesepakatan Yunani

Emas tidak banyak bergerak pada sesi Eropa seiring perjanjian pada beban utang Yunani telah melemahkan dollar dan permintaan emas fisik dari India turun, India  pada tahun lalu merupakan pembeli emas fisik terbesar.

Indeks Dollar AS turun hampir mendekati level terendah dalam tiga minggu setelah para menteri keuangan Eropa dan IMF sepakat untuk menurunkan suku bunga utang Yunani dan memberikan lebih banyak waktu untuk membayar pinjaman dana bantuan.

“Logam menunjukkan sedikit keinginan untuk bergerak dari tingkat harga sekarang ini,” kata Edel Trully, analis di UBS AG di London, dalam sebuah laporannya, mengacu pada harga emas yang berada di kisaran $1750 per ons.”

Pada saat ini emas bergerak di kisaran $ 1749.10,  untuk level tertinggi di $ 1751.70, dan level terendah berada di $ 1747.25

Fundamental Analysis, Nov 26th, 2012

Euro rises broadly on Greece aid optimism, German data

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday, heading for its second straight week of gains, on hopes that Greece's lenders were nearing an agreement to release further aid to help the debt-stricken country. 

A rise in German business morale also boosted the euro, although analysts said any euro strength should be limited given the bleak economic outlook for the euro zone as a whole and expectations that the European Central Bank will have to ease policy further. 

Greece said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be disbursed. But other sources involved in the talks cautioned the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested. 

The euro <EUR=> rose as high as $1.2943 on Reuters data, breaking above resistance at $1.2910, its 55-day moving average. It was last trading at $1.2941, up 0.5 percent on the day. It also hit a seven-month high of 106.73 yen <EURJPY=> and was last at 106.65 yen, up 0.4 percent. 

The euro has gained 2 percent against the dollar in the past two weeks as yields on Greek bonds fell on expectations that euro zone ministers should be able to sign off on another tranche of aid for Greece on Monday. 

German business morale surprised with its first rise in seven months in November. The Munich-based Ifo think tank said its business climate index rose to 101.4 from 100.0 in October, far surpassing even the highest estimate in a Reuters poll. 

Wall Street climbs in short session, led by tech stocks

U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day during a holiday-shortened, thin trading session on Friday, as investors bid up large technology stocks which had fallen to more attractive levels recently. Market participants were also encouraged by signs of progress in talks about releasing aid to debt-saddled Greece, and piled into U.S. retail shares as the holiday shopping season got underway. 

U.S. equity market trading will end early at 1:00 pm ET (1800 GMT) after closing Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volume was limited, with many investors still on leave. Microsoft <MSFT.O> helped lift the Nasdaq, gaining 2.4 percent to $27.61, while Oracle <ORCL.O> rose 1.8 percent to $30.94. 

Research in Motion <RIMM.O> surged on optimism about its soon-to-be-launched BlackBerry 10 devices that will vie against Apple's <AAPL.O> iPhone and Android-based smartphones. RIM was up 13.8 percent at $11.68.  The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 172.79 points, or 1.35 percent, to 13,009.68. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> added 18.12 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,409.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 40.30 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,966.85.

For the week, the Dow gained 3.3 percent, the S&P added 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq rose 4 percent. The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 and the Dow above 13,000 for the first time since Nov. 6.

Gold up 1 pct as dlr drop sparks rally; $1,750 eyed

Gold rose to its highest level in more than a month on Friday, gaining 1 percent as a combination of dollar decline, options-related buying and technical support sent the metal near $1,750 an ounce. 

After trading slightly higher in early U.S. dealings, gold suddenly surged and broke above its 50 day moving average, a key technical resistance the metal had failed to breach in more than a month. 

Bullion also benefited as the dollar fell broadly, particularly versus the euro, on hopes for a Greek aid package and a surprise improvement in German business sentiment. [FRX/] Markets could be choppier than usual in thin trading on Friday, with the metal markets closing early and the U.S. stock market open for only a half-day of business after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. 

Spot gold <XAU=> was up 1 percent at $1,747 an ounce by 11:07 a.m. EST (1607 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery <GCZ2> were up $18.90 an ounce at $1,747.10 in heavy trade. The first-notice day for December is next Friday. 

Oil Rises on German Business Confidence

 

Oil rose after German business confidence unexpectedly increased from the lowest level in two and a half years in November, signaling Europe’s largest economy may gain strength. Futures jumped as much as 1.3 percent and the euro and equities rallied as the Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed to 101.4 from 100 in October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a drop to 99.5. Israeli troops fired on Palestinians near the Gaza Strip, spurring accusations from both Israel and Hamas that a truce was breached. 

Crude oil for January delivery rose 82 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $88.20 a barrel at 12:03 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, which are up 1.8 percent this week, have dropped 11 percent this year. 

The exchange will close at 1:30 p.m. New York time today, an hour earlier than usual. There was no floor trading yesterday because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and all electronic transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes. 

Brent for January settlement increased 43 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $110.98 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is heading for a 1.9 percent gain this week. 

Nikkei set to rise, may test a 7-month high on gains by exporters

Japan's Nikkei share average is set to rise on Monday and may test a seven-month high, supported by a positive U.S. lead and expectations that a weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters. 

Sentiment was buoyed by indications that lenders are closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche for Greece, which pushed the euro to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday. The euro hit a seven-month high of 106.97 yen <EURJPY=>, and was last at 106.92 yen, up 0.6 percent. 

Exporters with high exposure to the euro zone, such as carmakers like Mazda Motor Corp <7267.T> and precision equipment makers like Canon Inc <7751.T> and Nikon Corp <7731.T>, may lead gains, analysts said. 

The Nikkei <.N225> rose 1.6 percent to 9,366.80 on Thursday, its highest closing level since May 2, taking the index near "overbought" territory, with its 14-day relative strength index at 69.5. Seventy or above is deemed overbought. The Japanese market was closed for a national holiday on Friday. 

Seoul shares seen gaining, US holiday sales off to good start

Seoul shares are likely to gain on Monday, helped by a promising start to the U.S. holiday shopping season, while concerns about U.S. fiscal woes and Europe's debt crisis have receded somewhat. 

U.S. shoppers went to stores earlier and bought online more than before this Thanksgiving weekend, giving retailers a strong start to the holiday shopping season, data showed on Sunday. Global stocks and the euro gained on Friday on signs of progress in talks on releasing aid to Greece and after an influential German survey found business sentiment had improved in Europe's largest economy. U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day in a low-volume trading session. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> closed up 0.6 percent at 1,911.33 points on Friday. 

Hong Kong shares poised for 4th-straight daily gain

Hong Kong shares are set to start the week with a fourth-straight daily gain on Monday, buoyed by expectations that an agreement at a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later in the day will help Greece avoid a near-term bankruptcy.  

  

The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> rose 0.8 percent to 21,914 points last Friday to its highest close since Nov. 7. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong was 1.1 percent higher.

Both rose 3.6 percent over the week, with the Hang Seng Index postings its best weekly showing in 2-1/2 months. The index is only a little more than 1 percent below its 2012 intra-day high, recorded on Nov. 2. 

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was up 1.2 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> was up 0.2 percent at 00.51 GMT.