Technical Analysis, August 13th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2180-1.2390	Up	1.2390	1.2180	1.2250		1.2390	1.2180
			1.2320	1.2110
USD/JPY	77.30-79.10	Down	79.70	77.90		78.50	77.30	79.10
			79.10	77.30
GBP/USD	1.5580-1.5790	Up	1.5790	1.5580	1.5650		1.5790	1.5580
			1.5720	1.5510
USD/CHF	0.9660-0.9870	Down	0.9940	0.9730		0.9800	0.9660	0.9870
			0.9870	0.9660
AUD/USD	1.0470-1.0680	Up	1.0680	1.0470	1.0540		1.0680	1.0470
			1.0610	1.0400
NIKKEI	8790-9030	Up	9030	8790	8870		9030	8790
			8950	8710
HANGSENG	19990-20350	Up	20350	19990	20110		20350	19990
			20230	19870
KOSPI	258.20-261.50	Up	261.50	258.20	259.30		261.50	258.20
			260.40	257.10
GOLD	1607.30-1632.00	Up	1632.00	1607.30	1615.50		1632.00	1607.30
			1623.80	1599.00

Pelonggaran China Tinggal Menunggu Waktu

Rilis data perdagangan China hari ini kian memastikan bahwa perlambatan ekonomi sedang benar-benar terjadi.Rangkaian laporan ekonomi China dirilis negatif dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. Atas dasar itu, muncul ekspektasi bahwa pelonggaran moneter segera keluar dalam hitungan hari, bukan pekan sebagaimana diprediksi sebelumnya.

Ekspor bulan Juli hanya tumbuh 1% atau jauh di bawah perkiraan 8,6% yang dikemukakan analis. Buruknya kinerja ekspor hanya makin memastikan bahwa sektor industri negara ini sudah terkena pengaruh krisis kawasan. Beijing kini ditekan untuk menciptakan formula stimulus baru guna mempercepat laju ekonomi. Investor mulai berani bertaruh bahwa pemerintah akan turun tangan sebelum bulan September, atau selambatnya dalam satu pekan ke depan. Bahkan bukan tidak mungkin kebijakan baru dirilis akhir pekan besok, sebagaimana lazim dilakukan otoritas.

Selain memperlonggar kebijakan, Beijing juga sebaiknya merancang aturan Fiskal untuk membantu konsumsi rumah tangga dan sektor ekspor. Kebijakan sepanjang tahun ini dinilai gagal mengimbangi pengaruh negatif yang menerpa ekonomi dalam negeri. Minimnya kenaikan volume impor juga memperlihatkan bahwa stimulus terdahulu tidak mampu mendongkrak daya beli konsumen.

Jika berkaca pada pengalaman terdahulu, pemerintah masih bisa berbuat lebih untuk menggenjot ekonomi. Pada 2008-2009, China mengumumkan dana belanja $586 miliar atau 14% dari total GDP untuk menyelamatkan diri dari krisis global. Kondisi saat ini memang belum mencapai taraf seperti yang terjadi 4 tahun lalu, akan tetapi pemerintah diharapkan tidak coba-coba menguji efektivitas program. Pelonggaran moneter dalam skala lebih besar adalah suatu hal yang wajib dan tidak bisa ditawar lagi.

Emas Dekat $1,620, Harapan Stimulus China

Emas berdiri dekat $ 1.620 per ons pada hari Senin, setelah menguat untuk hari keenam pada sesi sebelumnya pasca rilis data ekonomi China memicu harapan langkah stimulus lebih dari ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia.

Spot emas sedikit berubah pada $ 1,620.11, setelah membukukan kenaikan mingguan hampir 1 persen. Kontrak emas berjangka AS untuk pengiriman Desember diperdagangkan hampir flat di $ 1,622.70. Data Jumat menunjukkan ekspor China pada bulan Juli hanya meningkat 1 persen dari tahun sebelumnya dan pinjaman baru berada pada rendahnya 10 bulan, menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan pro-pertumbuhan belum memadai dan tindakan lanjutan sesegera mungkin diperlukan untuk menstabilkan perekonomian.

Menambah gambar suram pertumbuhan global, ekspansi ekonomi Jepang melambat lebih dari yang diharapkan pada kuartal kedua, karena rebound dalam belanja konsumen mulai kehilangan momentum dan krisis hutang Eropa menekan permintaan global.

Fundamental Analysis

Hong Kong shares poised for third-straight gain

Hong Kong shares are set for a third-straight gain on Wednesday, led by beaten down growth-sensitive sectors on hopes that policymakers will soon address the euro zone crisis and declining global growth. Cathay Pacific Airways, SJM Holdings and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEx) are among the slew of companies expected to report first-half earnings later on Wednesday.

    On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> edged up 0.4 percent to 20,072.6, its highest close since May 10. The index ended off the day's highs and held within a 150-point range, as it did on Monday.

Seoul shares seen holding ahead of China data

Seoul shares are expected to stick to a narrow range on Wednesday, retaining gains that propelled the main board to a seven-week high while investors look for additional market cues ahead of a slew of economic data from China.

There isn't enough momentum at the moment to establish a convincing foothold in 1,900 point territory... we'll likely see some more rotation into cheap, beaten-down shares rather than any aggressive risk-taking," said Daewoo Securities in a note to its clients.  Hopes that the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve would soon embark on fresh easing measures have provided steady support for risky assets in recent sessions.

 
 A raft of data from China starting Thursday -- including inflation, industrial output, and retail sales -- is expected to show the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing after a sluggish first half of the year. South Korea's central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady at a policy meeting on Thursday after a surprise cut in July, although it is likely to lower rates at least once more this year if the economy continues to show weakness.

Nikkei set to rise for 3rd day on more policy hopes

Japan's Nikkei average is expected to rise for a third day in a row on Wednesday, powered by exporters as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will provide more stimulus boost risk \appetite.The "risk-on" mode among investors, prompted by comments from a top Fed official, strengthened the dollar and the euro against the yen, giving a further fillip to Japanese exporters.
   

 Boston Fed Bank President Eric Rosengren said on Tuesday that the Fed should launch another bond-buying programme of whatever size and duration is necessary to get the economy back on its feet, signalling support from some U.S. policymakers for aggressive steps to boost the flagging economy.  "In a word, today's outlook: strong," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.
    

"Exporter shares will likely be bought back as the dollar and euro have stabilised."the yen, which has firmed in recent months to make the country's exports more expensive, last traded at at 78.636 yen to the dollar and 97.430 to the euro. The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,800 and 8,900, strategists said, after rallying 2.9 percent in the previous two sessions. Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,880 on Tuesday, up 0.9 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,800.

Gold flat, volume low; investors wonder about central banks

Gold was nearly flat on Tuesday, with volume much lighter than average for a second consecutive day as investors were uncertain about whether central banks would act to stimulate sputtering economies. The metal traded in a tight range of less than $10 an ounce, swinging between slight gains and losses, as higher U.S. equities, crude oil and the euro failed to attract much buying or selling of the precious metal.

Volume in U.S. gold futures hovered near a fresh 2012 low. Traders said last week's mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report fed uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will come through with more gold-friendly monetary stimulus, or whether the central bank would refrain from action, which could spur selling. Bullion largely ignored comments from Boston Fed Bank President Eric Rosengren that the Fed should launch another bond buying program of whatever size and duration is necessary to get the economy back on its feet.
Spot gold <XAU=> inched down 15 cents at $1,610.24 an ounce by 2:46 p.m. EDT (1846 GMT). U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCZ2> for December delivery settled down $3.40 an ounce at $1,612.80, with volume at below 80,000 lots, about half of its 30-day average at about 170,000 lots, preliminary Reuters showed.

Euro flat vs dollar after two-day advance

The euro traded little changed against the dollar on Tuesday, taking a breather after a two-day rally sparked by expectations of further action by the European Central Bank to lower borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.
The Australian dollar rose to its highest in more than four months against the greenback after the country's central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5 percent and dropped few hints about easing soon.

Rising expectations that the ECB could step in as early as next month to reduce crippling high Spanish and Italian borrowing costs by buying their bonds have sparked a global rally in risky assets since Friday. The euro was little changed at $1.2399 <EUR=>, pulling away from a one-month high of $1.2443 set on Monday. Traders reported talk of resistance at $1.2450.

Intraday bias in the euro remains on the upside, with the next target at around $1.2764, the 50 percent retracement of the move from the $1.3486 high hit in late February to $1.2040, the more-than-two-year low struck on July 24. Markets were initially disappointed last week when the ECB failed to take immediate action to stabilize bond markets. But traders took ECB chief Mario Draghi's warning not to bet against the euro seriously and as a result the euro has gained momentum.

Last week, the ECB indicated any intervention in sovereign bond markets would not come before September and such a move would come only if governments first applied for assistance from the rescue funds.

S&P hits 1,400 as ECB-inspired rally persists

U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day on Tuesday, pushing the S&P above 1,400 for the first time since early May, on growing optimism the European Central Bank would act soon to contain the euro zone's debt crisis.

Trading was light, which could distort the level of optimism investors truly have that Europe will follow through with adequate measures. ECB President Mario Draghi boosted hopes last week when he spoke of restoring calm to the euro zone's troubled bond markets.   

Since then, good news from Greece and declines in borrowing costs for Spain and Italy from peaks above 7 percent have kept sentiment positive. The relative calm allowed the S&P to break through the psychologically important 1,400 level after trying unsuccessfully the past couple of sessions. Summer holidays have added to light trading volume, which has contributed to volatility. Equities cut their gains just before the close on Tuesday, mirroring Monday's late-day action.

About 6.39 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion. The real tests for markets may come in September. The ECB is expected to face decisions about controlling the euro zone debt crisis and the Federal Reserve could take stimulus actions to aid the flagging U.S. economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 51.09 points, or 0.39 percent, at 13,168.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 7.12 points, or 0.51 percent, at 1,401.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 25.95 points, or 0.87 percent, at 3,015.86.

Oil at Two-Month High as Equities Gain, Dollar Declines

Oil rose to the highest level in more than two months, advancing with equities on optimism that economic growth will accelerate and as tension increased in the Middle East. Futures climbed 1.6 percent as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) reached a three-month high, led by commodity and industrial shares, on speculation that central banks will boost efforts to lift growth. Rebels in Syria said Prime Minister Riad Hijab defected in the highest-ranking departure since an uprising began last year.

Crude oil for September delivery increased $1.47 to $93.67 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since May 15. Prices are up 6.4 percent this month. Prices were little changed from the settlement after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported oil inventories dropped 5.35 million barrels last week to 364.3 million. The September contract was up $1.38 at $93.58 at 4:34 p.m. in electronic trading.

Brent oil for September settlement climbed $2.45, or 2.2 percent, to end the session at $112 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the highest close since May 15. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate, the grade traded in New York, rose to $18.33 from $17.35 yesterday.

Technical Analysis, August 10th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2210-1.2390	Up	1.2390	1.2210	1.2270		1.2390	1.2210
			1.2330	1.2150
USD/JPY	77.70-79.20	Down	79.70	78.20		78.70	77.70	79.20
			79.20	77.70
GBP/USD	1.5550-1.5730	Up	1.5730	1.5550	1.5610		1.5730	1.5550
			1.5670	1.5490
USD/CHF	0.9670-0.9850	Down	0.9910	0.9730		0.9790	0.9670	0.9850
			0.9850	0.9670
AUD/USD	1.0490-1.0670	Up	1.0670	1.0490	1.0550		1.0670	1.0490
			1.0610	1.0430
NIKKEI	8870-9050	Up	9110	8930	8990		8870	9050
			9050	8870
HANGSENG	20170-20350	Up	20410	20230	20290		20170	20350
			20350	20170
KOSPI	259.80-261.60	Up	262.20	260.40	261.00		259.80	261.60
			261.60	259.80
GOLD	1605.00-1629.00	Up	1629.00	1605.00	1613.00		1629.00	1605.00
			1621.00	1597.00

Ekonom Pangkas Outlook Zona Eropa

Nasib ekonomi zona Eropa saat ini merupakan yang paling rentan sejak bulan Juni, menurut jajak pendapat Reuters terhadap sekumpulan ekonom yang menunjukkan Spanyol yang diperkirakan akan mengajukan permohonan bailout Uni Eropa dalam beberapa bulan. Para ekonom yang disurvei minggu ini memangkas prospek ekonomi 2013 mereka untuk Yunani, Portugal dan Spanyol, dan mengatakan mereka semua akan gagal mencapai target defisit anggaran yang disepakati dengan Komisi Eropa.

Di antara zona ekonomi Eropa yang saat ini sedang berjuang, hanya Irlandia terlihat di jalur yang tepat untuk pertumbuhan yang moderat dalam waktu dekat.Sementara survei menunjukkan adanya kemungkinan adanya pengurangan tekanan bahwa Yunani akan keluar dari zona Eropa segera, juga menggarisbawahi mengapa Spanyol merupakan titik pusat baru dari krisis utang kawasan tersebut.

Pelonggaran China Tinggal Menunggu Waktu

Rilis data perdagangan China hari ini kian memastikan bahwa perlambatan ekonomi sedang benar-benar terjadi.Rangkaian laporan ekonomi China dirilis negatif dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. Atas dasar itu, muncul ekspektasi bahwa pelonggaran moneter segera keluar dalam hitungan hari, bukan pekan sebagaimana diprediksi sebelumnya.

Ekspor bulan Juli hanya tumbuh 1% atau jauh di bawah perkiraan 8,6% yang dikemukakan analis. Buruknya kinerja ekspor hanya makin memastikan bahwa sektor industri negara ini sudah terkena pengaruh krisis kawasan. Beijing kini ditekan untuk menciptakan formula stimulus baru guna mempercepat laju ekonomi. Investor mulai berani bertaruh bahwa pemerintah akan turun tangan sebelum bulan September, atau selambatnya dalam satu pekan ke depan. Bahkan bukan tidak mungkin kebijakan baru dirilis akhir pekan besok, sebagaimana lazim dilakukan otoritas.

Selain memperlonggar kebijakan, Beijing juga sebaiknya merancang aturan Fiskal untuk membantu konsumsi rumah tangga dan sektor ekspor. Kebijakan sepanjang tahun ini dinilai gagal mengimbangi pengaruh negatif yang menerpa ekonomi dalam negeri. Minimnya kenaikan volume impor juga memperlihatkan bahwa stimulus terdahulu tidak mampu mendongkrak daya beli konsumen.

Jika berkaca pada pengalaman terdahulu, pemerintah masih bisa berbuat lebih untuk menggenjot ekonomi. Pada 2008-2009, China mengumumkan dana belanja $586 miliar atau 14% dari total GDP untuk menyelamatkan diri dari krisis global. Kondisi saat ini memang belum mencapai taraf seperti yang terjadi 4 tahun lalu, akan tetapi pemerintah diharapkan tidak coba-coba menguji efektivitas program. Pelonggaran moneter dalam skala lebih besar adalah suatu hal yang wajib dan tidak bisa ditawar lagi.

Dollar Masih Bebani Kinerja Emas

Harga emas melemah di sesi London, terbebani oleh penguatan dollar setelah lemahnya data Cina tegaskan perlambatan ekonomi dunia. Surplus perdagangan Cina berkurang menjadi $25,1 miliar untuk bulan Juli; lebih rendah dari prediksi $35,1 miliar dan publikasi sebelumnya $31,7 miliar. Jumlah kredit perbankan Cina juga tergelincir menjadi 540 miliar yuan; lebih buruk dari estimasi 701 miliar yuan dan publikasi Juni 920 miliar. ANZ juga cukup berhati-hati dengan outlook emas walaupun ada harapan berlanjutnya pelonggaran moneter dari berbagai bank sentral besar di dunia. "Kami telah utarakan kecemasan bahwa emas mungkin tidak akan bergerak lebih $20 dari level $1610. Emas masih akan bergerak sideways hingga pasar mendapatkan kejelasan lebih lanjut akan QE III dari Fed dan intervensi ECB di pasar obligasi Eropa," ujar Nick Trevethan, strategis ANZ yang diwawancarai Reuters. Sementara itu, analis teknikal Reuters Wang Tao prediksi harga emas dapat kembali menguji 1602 setelah gagal menguji resisten 1618.