Technical Analysis, July 24th, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2060-1.2230	Down	1.2290	1.2110		1.2170	1.2060	1.2230
			1.2230	1.2050
USD/JPY	77.50-79.20	Up	79.30	77.50	78.10		79.20	77.50
			78.70	76.90
GBP/USD	1.5430-1.5610	Down	1.5670	1.5490		1.5550	1.5430	1.5610
			1.5610	1.5430
USD/CHF	0.9800-0.9970	Up	0.9980	0.9800	0.9860		0.9970	0.9800
			0.9920	0.9740
AUD/USD	1.0190-1.0360	Down	1.0420	1.0240		1.0300	1.0190	1.0360
			1.0360	1.0180
NIKKEI	8260-8400	Down	8500	8320		8380	8260	8440
			8440	8250
HANGSENG	18780-18960	Down	19020	18840		18900	18780	18960
			18960	18770
KOSPI	233.90-235.70	Down	236.30	234.50		235.10	233.90	235.70
			235.70	233.80
GOLD	1568.50-1591.00	Down	1598.50	1576.00		1583.50	1568.50	1591.00
			1591.00	1568.50

Noda dan Shirakawa Bertemu

Perdana Menteri Jepang, Yoshihiko Noda dan gubernur bank sentral Jepang, BoJ, Masaaki Shirakawa bertemu pagi hari ini untuk membahas kebijakan moneter dan mencari cara untuk memicu pertumbuhan ekonomi guna mengatasi deflasi Jepang yang sudah sedemikian parah, demikian dilaporkan Kyodo News.

Pertemuan itu mengambil tempat di sebuah hotel di Tokyo untuk pertama kalinya sejak 6 April. Setelah pembicaraan tersebut, Shirakawa menolak untuk memberikan detail hasil pertemuan tersebut, dengan hanya mengatakan bahwa pertemuan tersebut hanyalah pertemuan tukar pendapat.

Geger! Euro Terjerumus Bailout Spanyol

Mengawali pekan ini (Senin, 23/07) pasar dunia digegerkan lagi oleh uero yang kian terpuruk lantaran investor kembali khawatir dengan mencuatnya lagi isu krisis utang di kawasan Eropa, khususnya krisis yang melanda negara terbesar ke 4 Eropa - Spanyol.

Aksi lepas posisi di semua lini pasar terutama disebabkan oleh sentimen negatif yang bermula dari proyeksi pemerintah Spanyol bahwa negerinya akan mengalami resesi di tahun 2013 mendatang menyusul pemberitaan salah satu pemerintah daerahnya menyatakan meminta bailout.

Salah satu pemerintah otonomi negara Spanyol pada distrik Valencia, menyatakan tengah meminta bantuan pemerintah pusat sebesar €18 milyar untuk membayar hutangnya dan membantu keuangan daerah. Sontak kabar tersebut kian menambah kekhawatiran bahwa ekonomi terbesar ke-4 zona Euro mungkin akan memerlukan bailout internasional besar-besaran.

Katalis negatif lainnya muncul setelah pemerintah Spanyol memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk tahun 2012 dan 2013. Revisi proyeksi tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa Spanyol akan terjerumus ke dalam resesi pada tahun depan. Dan sebagai akibatnya, yield obligasi Spanyol bertenor 10-tahun melonjak ke rekor 7,309% dan 6,928% untuk tenor 5-tahun.     

Akibat dampak dari lonjakan yield tersebut, Euro kini kembali anjlok ke rekor rendah pada kisaran $1.2104 setelah akhir pekan lalu mencatat level rendah harian pada $1.2143.

Harga Emas Bergerak Sempit

Untuk jangka pendek pergerakan emas masih terlihat sideways, menurut analisa teknikal Barclays. "Harga emas masih bergerak di rangenya dengan kondisi pasar yang belum menunjukkan perubahan," tambahnya. 

Penguatan tipis yang terjadi saat ini diikuti oleh periode konsolidasi dengan prospek emas jangka menengah yang terlihat netral. Hari ini (23/07) harga emas bergerak turun dikarenakan penguatan USD yang menekan minat terhadap komoditi berdenominasi dollar. Emas di $1,579.49 per troy ons, turun $4.51 dari level penutupan.

EUR/USD: Tertekan Kuat, Uji Support 1.2104.

EUR/USD saat ini sedang berada di bawah tekanan bearish yang kuat, menguji support sementara di 1.2104. Preferensi hari ini adalah bearish terutama jika support tersebut tembus dan EUR/USD diperkirakan akan semakin terpuruk hingga ke kisaran 1.2063 – 1.2013.

Di sisi lain, stochastic dan CCI 1 jam menunjukkan indikasi bahwa pasar kemungkinan berada dalam kondisi jenuh jual sehingga membuka peluang pullback hingga ke area resistance di kisaran 1.2175 – 1.2218. Meskipun demikian, bias intraday masih akan tetap bearish selama resistance di 1.2218 bertahan. Dengan demikian, area resistance tersebut bisa dipergunakan sebagai acuan untuk mencari sinyal/pola bearish alternatif.

Bias akan berubah menjadi bullish jika resistance di 1.2218 pecah. Hal tersebut juga akan membuka peluang bagi pergerakan bullish lanjutan hingga kisaran 1.2245 – 1.2288. Oleh karena itu, berhati-hatilah dalam menerapkan skenario bearish di atas.

GBP/USD: Uji Support 1.5566, Kisaran Lanjutan di 1.5528 – 1.5481

GBP/USD saat ini berada di bawah tekanan bearish yang kuat, menguji support di 1.5566. Preferensi hari ini adalah bearish terutama jika support tersebut tembus sehingga GBP/USD diperkirakan akan bergerak semakin rendah hingga kisaran 1.5528 – 1.5481.

Meskipun demikian, waspadai kemungkinan adanya pergerakan pullback hingga ke area resistance di kisaran 1.5631 – 1.5671 seiring indikasi jenuh jual yang diperlihatkan oleh stochastic dan CCI 1 jam. Namun, bias intraday masih akan tetap bearish selama resistance di 1.5671 bertahan. Dengan demikian, area resistance tersebut bisa dianggap sebagai area acuan untuk mencari sinyal/pola bearish alternatif.  Waspadalah jika resistance di 1.5671 pecah karena hal tersebut akan mengubah bias intraday menjadi bullish dengan sasaran di kisaran 1.5696 – 1.5736.

Bantuan Yunani Dilaporkan Akan Terpangkas IMF

International Monetary Fund akan segera menghentikan bantuan kepada Yunani, meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa negara tersebut akan bangkrut secepatnya bulan September, menurut sebuah rilis pers Jerman mengutip pernyataan dari salah seorang petinggi Uni Eropa.

Grup Troika yang mengawasi perkembangan untuk bantuan Yunani – komisi Uni Eropa, IMF dan ECB – akan segera mengirim petugas inspeksi ke Athena untuk melihat perkembangan disana dengan merujuk kepada persyaratan program bantuan yang diberikan.

Akan tetapi, Der Spiegel melaporkan bahwa sudah jelas bagi Trokia bahwa pemerintah Yunani tidak akan sanggup memangkas pengeluaran menjadi 120% untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2020, sebagaimana disyaratkan, menurut sebuah penerjamahan laporan Bloomberg News.

Dan apabila Yunani diberikan tambahan waktu untuk mencapai target pemangkasan pengeluaran, negara tersebut akan memerlukan dana bantuan tambahan sebesar 10-50 miliar Euro (atau setara dengan $12.1 miliar hingga $60.5 miliar), dilaporkan Der Spiegel.

Fundamental research 23

Hong Kong shares seen lower, trimming weekly gains

Hong Kong shares were expected to start lower on Friday, trimming their gains for the week after benchmark indexes failed to close above chart resistance levels despite strong gains on Thursday. Riskier sectors such as Chinese banks that saw strong gains on Thursday could be put on the defensive as investors look to take some profits. The sector has been dogged by worries about bad debts and squeezed interest rate margins. 

Weaker-than-expected readings on U.S. manufacturing, housing and labour markets, and a spike in Spain's borrowing costs, which intensified fears Madrid may eventually need a full-blown sovereign bailout, are likely to weigh on markets. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of the top Chinese listings in Hong Kong jumped 2.4 percent on Thursday, but failed to close above the 61.8 percent retracement of its rise from its October 2011 lows to February 2012 highs, at about 9,539.5.

Seoul shares likely to climb as U.S. earnings offset soft data

Seoul shares look likely to extend gains on Friday, tracking global stocks as robust corporate earnings offset weak U.S. economic data. Weaker-than-expected readings on U.S. manufacturing, housing and labour markets capped gains, however. 

Spain's financial troubles also weighed on sentiment. Ten-year Spanish bond yields rose above the critical 7 percent level widely viewed as unsustainable, stoking fears that Madrid may eventually need a full-blown sovereign bailout. "Despite some of the bad news, there is still a little room for more gains, especially if foreign investors start reverting to buying as their recent activity has hinted they might do," said Lee Young-gon, an analyst at Hana Daetoo Securities.

Nikkei likely range-bound as firm yen offsets U.S. earnings

Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to trade in a range on Friday as a firmer yen is likely to offset positive sentiment after U.S. stocks, buoyed by corporate earnings, rose for the third straight day. Strategists said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 8,750 and 8,850, after advancing 0.8 percent to 8,795.55 on Thursday to hold above its 5-day moving average at 8,744.28 but below its 25-day moving average at 8,820.07.  

The positive factor (in the U.S. markets) is the corporate earnings and the negative factor is the macro-economic data. The Japanese market still lacks a catalyst," said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex Inc. The slowdown in the U.S. economy persisted early in the third quarter as factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region contracted in July for a third straight month and new claims for jobless aid surged last week. 

The market is also concerned over corporate earnings in Japan. Today's trading is likely to be in a small range," Hiroki said. Japan's earnings season gets into gear next week. The yen was last traded at 78.63 yen to the dollar, not far from a six-week high of 78.42 yen hit on Thursday. A stronger yen may mean lower translation profit for Japanese firms' overseas earnings.

Gold rebounds on oil rally, technical buying

Gold rebounded on Thursday after two days of losses, lifted by a drop in the dollar and an across-the-board commodities rally led by oil on increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Data showing a surge in U.S. new claims for jobless aid and weaker factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region improved the outlook for additional economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve and boosted bullion's investment appeal.

Bullion, a traditional inflation hedge, has retreated from levels seen earlier this year due to a lack of more-concrete measures by the U.S. central bank to stimulate a slowing economy. This week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke again gave no hint of any new round of asset buybacks, or quantitative easing (QE).
Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.6 percent for the day at $1,581.41 an ounce by 3:11 p.m. EDT (1911 GMT). U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled up $9.60 at $1,580.40 an ounce, with trading volume about 15 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Euro falls as Spain's bank woes, weak US data haunt

The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday and touched a record low against the Australian dollar and a 3-1/2-year trough versus sterling, as weak U.S. data and fresh warnings from Germany about Spain's banking troubles diminished risk appetite.

A slew of soft U.S. economic data reinforced views that recovery in the world's largest economy has stalled, prompting investors to pare back positions in higher-yielding assets perceived as risky. Riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars were still up on the day against the dollar and euro, but off their peaks.

Comments from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ahead of a German parliamentary vote on aid for Spanish banks  did not help the common currency. Schaeuble said Spain's financial troubles are far from over and its government should be ultimately responsible for European aid to its banks.

He also said that the mere perception of insolvency risk in Spain could cause contagion in the euro zone. Losses in the euro, however, were capped by news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel ultimately won a parliamentary vote on the euro zone rescue package for Spanish banks despite growing unease in her center-right coalition over the rising cost of Europe's debt crisis for German taxpayers.The euro hit session lows at $1.2227 <EUR=> in the wake of Schaeuble's comments and was last at $1.2270, down 0.1 percent on the day.

Technology earnings boost Wall Street

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday for a third straight day, with the S&P 500 at a 2-1/2 month high, as earnings from technology companies and expectations for more monetary stimulus outweighed weak economic data.
So far in this earnings season a majority of companies have beaten analysts' lowered expectations. In the latest boost, IBM <IBM.N> raised its full-year outlook, eBay’s <EBAY.O> profit beat forecasts and Qualcomm <QCOM.O> said its expects a "strong December quarter."

Weak manufacturing and employment data as well as falling revenue at investment bank Morgan Stanley <MS.N>, which sent its shares down more than 5 percent, capped gains in the wider market. The S&P financial index <.GSPF> fell 1 percent.

Even so, expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon step up stimulus efforts have helped the market shake off bad news. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said this week that the U.S. central bank would act if the outlook worsened. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 34.66 points, or 0.27 percent, to 12,943.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 3.73 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,376.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 23.30 points, or 0.79 percent, to 2,965.90.

Oil Rises to Two-Month High on Rising Mideast Tension

Oil advanced to the highest level in two months on rising concern that instability in the Middle East will disrupt supplies from a region responsible for about one- third of world production.

Prices gained for a seventh day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization for yesterday’s killing of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria and threatened a forceful response. In Damascus, Syrian government forces battled rebels in retaliation for a blast that killed three top anti-insurgency leaders.

Crude for August delivery increased $2.79, or 3.1 percent, to settle at $92.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has risen 10 percent in seven days of gains, the longest such streak since Feb. 24. Prices are down 6.2 percent this year. Brent oil for September advanced $2.64, or 2.5 percent, to settle at $107.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.


Source : Reuters

Technical Analysis, July 23rd, 2012

CURRENCY	RANGE	TREND	RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	BUY	SELL	OBJ	CUT
EUR/USD	1.2060-1.2270	Down	1.2270	1.2130		1.2200	1.2060	1.2270
			1.2340	1.2060
USD/JPY	77.60-79.40	Up	78.80	77.60	78.20		79.40	77.60
			79.40	77.00
GBP/USD	1.5520-1.5730	Down	1.5730	1.5590		1.5660	1.5520	1.5730
			1.5800	1.5520
USD/CHF	0.9770-0.9980	Up	0.9910	0.9770	0.9840		0.9980	0.9770
			0.9980	0.9700
AUD/USD	1.0260-1.0470	Down	1.0470	1.0330		1.0400	1.0260	1.0470
			1.0540	1.0260
NIKKEI	8520-8730	Up	8660	8520	8590		8730	8520
			8730	8450
HANGSENG	19390-19750	Down	19750	19510		19630	19390	19750
			19870	19390
KOSPI	238.00-241.30	Down	241.30	239.10		240.20	238.00	241.30
			242.40	238.00
GOLD	1572.10-1596.80	Up	1588.60	1572.10	1580.30		1596.80	1572.10
			1596.80	1563.80