Treasuries Decline as Jobs Growth, Inflation Weigh on Fixed-Income Demand

Treasuries fell, with 10-year notes halting a three-week rally, as signs of faster job growth and more inflation added to speculation the economic recovery is building momentum, damping demand for fixed-income assets.
The difference between yields on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices, touched 253 basis points yesterday, the most since July 2008, after a report showing the largest monthly job gains since May. Weekly losses were tempered as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture western towns, adding to concern political turmoil in the oil-producing Mideast and North Africa will spread and escalate.

“The economic numbers are clearly getting stronger and inflation is turning the corner and heading higher, which is weighing on the Treasury market,” Donald Ellenberger, who oversees about $6 billion as co-head of government and mortgage- backed securities at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. “Still, we have underlying tension between stronger growth and higher oil prices due to the uncertainty in the Middle East that is capping any selloff.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 3.49 percent in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3.625 percent security maturing in February 2021 was at 101 3/32.
Thirty-year bond yields rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.6 percent.

Yield Curve

The yield curve, or the difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury notes, reached 283 basis points yesterday, the widest since Feb. 21.
The Labor Department said payrolls rose by 192,000 in February, after a 63,000 increase in January. Payrolls were projected to climb 196,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, with estimates ranging as high as 297,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009. The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.1 percent from 9 percent, according to the survey median.

Growth Pace

“We are moving in the right direction, but it wasn’t stellar given what we’ve seen from recent reports,” said Jeffrey Cleveland, senior economist at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles, which manages $56 billion. “If the report was stronger we would see a flatter curve and some sense in the market that the Federal Reserve would start to prime to exit, but we are still seeing relative steepening.”
The Treasury announced plans to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes, $21 billion of 10-year securities and $13 billion of 30- year bonds next week.
“If rates creep up over 4 percent, I would be incrementally buying interest rates,” Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, said in a March 3 interview from New York with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker.
Ten-year yields also surged as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said interest rates may be increased at the next meeting. He told reporters in Frankfurt March 3 that inflation risks have moved to the “upside.” The ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent.

Fed Numbers

There’s a 33 percent chance the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates from almost zero in December, compared with 47 percent a month ago, according to CME Group Inc. exchange futures. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and central bank policy markers focus on core inflation, rather than an official target.
“The ECB news may be resetting expectation with likely timing of global central banks becoming more restrictive,” said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “It may mean little for the Fed, but you may see people bring forward their expectations for Fed tightening if data continues to come in better.”
The Fed’s Beige Book report said labor markets improved throughout the country early this year, driven by increasing retail sales and “solid growth” in manufacturing. The central bank’s March 2 report was prepared in advance of the policy- making Federal Open Market Committee meeting March 15.

Central Bank Buys

The Fed bought $24 billion of Treasuries this week and has purchased $397.6 billion of U.S. debt as part of its $600 billion acquisition plan to support the recovery that runs through June. The central bank plans to buy $16 billion to $22 billion of Treasuries next week and issue an updated buying schedule on March 10.
Fed policy makers are signaling they favor an abrupt end to in Treasury purchases in June, jettisoning their prior strategy of gradually pulling back on intervention in bond markets.
“I don’t see a lot of gain to reverting to a tapering approach,” Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters March 3. “I don’t think that is necessary,” Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said last month.
Treasuries have handed investors a loss of 0.8 percent this year, compared with a gain of 5.9 percent last year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

Gold, Silver, Oil Will Spike To New Highs If US-UK Attack Libya

You can’t keep precious metals down when the globe is agog over violent political change, the freezing of dictators’ assets in the US and Switzerland– and deep anxiety over the price of oil.

Gold and silver, led by crude oil, will spike if talks between the US and UK for joint military action in Libya take root. This threat to the Libyan oil fields and to peace in the region would have an immediate impact in commodity markets.

Remember 1980 with our hostages in Iran; gold rose to $800 an ounce (there was double-digit inflation– at least 5 times the rate today) and silver to $50 (the Hunts idiotically tried to corner the market)
We are not that far from the peak in gold- $1440 an ounce. Just another $10 an ounce spike is half the $20 an ounce we made up today so far. We are at a 30 year peak for silver, which has been acting even more positively than gold.

I don’t think this is the Bernanke market, as he made it clear today that inflation is just the 2% he wants, and that’s despite the horrific run-up in food prices. And he’s beaten off deflation with QE2. No knee-jerk connection between Bernanke and precious metals.

The connection for gold and silver is geo-political. My new rule of thumb for gold and silver; the more uprisings that lead to oil supply fears the more speculation will hive onto gold and silver. Or put it another way, as go oil fears, so goes money into gold and silver.

So, battles on the Tunisian- Libyan border, calls for public demonstrations in Teheran, unrest in Bahrain, Algeria that suggests the daisy chain moves ultimately to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and who-knows-where-else all add up to uncertainty about oil prices.

And uncertainty about oil prices– especially if they trend higher– suggest to me somewhat higher gold and oil prices.

Oil Heads for Sixth Weekly Advance on Libya Disruption, Rising U.S. Demand

Oil advanced, headed for its sixth weekly gain in London, as civil unrest in Libya fueled concern that supply disruptions will be prolonged while employment data from the U.S. showed signs of growing demand.
Brent crude gained as much as 1.3 percent as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi sent troops to recapture towns in western Libya and prepared to quash protests in the capital, Tripoli, while rebels fought for control of oil ports on the country’s central and eastern coastal strip. A U.S. government report today showed employers added workers last month while the unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in almost two years.

“The Middle East-North Africa price risk continues to be on the upside and economic support from the U.S. should also be strong,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Stockholm-based consultants SEB Commodities Research, said in a note today. “We thus hold a bullish view for the day.”

Brent crude for April settlement rose as much as $1.51 to $116.30 a barrel and was at $115.74 at 1:42 p.m. on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract has gained 3.2 percent this week. Crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $1.18 at $103.09 a barrel, headed for a 5.3 percent gain this week.

Oil fell as much as 2.1 percent in New York yesterday after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez offered to mediate the conflict in Libya, which has reduced supplies from Africa’s third-largest producer. Fighting has cut crude production in the North African country by as much as 1 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Libya pumped 1.6 million barrels a day in January, according to Bloomberg estimates.

U.S. Demand

Prices also rose on signs the U.S. economy is gaining strength and fuel demand is recovering. U.S. employers added 192,000 workers in February, amid an improving economy and more seasonable weather, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 8.9 percent, the lowest level since April 2009, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Government data Published yesterday showed. Service industries expanded in February at the fastest pace since 2005 and fewer Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits.

The turmoil in the Middle East also pushed up oil products prices in Europe. Jet fuel, diesel and gasoline surpassed $1,000 a metric ton in Europe for the first time in more than two years. Jet fuel traded at $1,055 a ton yesterday in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil-trading hub, bringing its advance this year to 28 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Premium gasoline rose to $1,025 a ton while diesel in the Mediterranean region jumped to $1,001 a ton on March 2.

Regional Protests

Demonstrations have toppled leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, while there have been protests in countries including Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Oman. In Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, websites have called for a nationwide “Day of Rage” on March 11 and March 20, according to Human Rights Watch.

In Yemen today, tens of thousands of protesters were pouring into Change Square in the capital, Sana’a, calling for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s three-decade rule.

Prices closed at the highest since September 2008 on March 2 after Iranian protesters clashed with security forces in Tehran while demonstrations escalated in Oman. Iran is the second-biggest producer in OPEC and Oman is the largest Middle East producer outside the group.

Oil prices may rise further next week as civil unrest in the region fuels concerns of prolonged supply disruption. Twenty-four of 43 analysts, or 56 percent, forecast crude oil will climb through March 11, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Twelve respondents, or 28 percent, predicted prices will decline and seven estimated little change.

“I can’t see any reason for oil prices to be lower while there is unrest in the Middle East,” said Michael Hewson, market analyst at London-based CMC Markets, which handles more than $150 million a day in U.S. crude contracts.

Five Ways to Use Commodities Against Inflation

The classic way to protect yourself from a burst of inflation is to own commodities. Holding a ton of wheat or copper will not, of course, directly insulate you from the pain of rising medical and college bills. But hard assets are nonetheless a broad defense against the rising cost of living. That’s because their prices pick up the scent of dollar debasement well before it’s felt in the economy as a whole.
I assume you know about the big drawback to commodities: They are insanely volatile. The other things to consider are the costs and taxes of owning them. I’ll focus on the latter two in reviewing five different ways to get your hands around hard assets.

Buy a gold ETF

The biggest and best known exchange traded fund holding commodities is the SPDR Gold Shares, ticker GLD. It has $56 billion worth of metal tucked away here and there. It trades a furious 15 million shares a day.
Cost to you: 0.4% a year. That is, you’re paying State Street Corp, the World Gold Council and the other middlemen not quite $6 a year to hold a troy ounce of metal and feed the guard dogs.
For in-and-out traders this fund can’t be beat. The bid/ask spread is often only a penny, negligible on a $140 stock.
Long-term holders would be better off in the much smaller ($5 billion) iShares gold fund operated by BlackRock, at an annual fee of only 0.25%. Ticker: IAU.
True worrywarts might find more reassurance in an ETF from ETF Securities, which makes a big fuss over where it stores its bullion: in Zurich, as opposed to the sketchier locales (like Toronto and London) used by competitors.
Most of the $25 billion of assets run by ETFS out of its headquarters on the isle of Jersey are in overseas securities. It has $3 billion in U.S. funds, including the $1.3 billion gold fund, ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (ticker: SGOL). The cost of this product is 0.39% a year.
If you like silver, even more volatile than gold (and much hotter in 2010), the big fund is the one from iShares, with $12 billion of bullion. Ticker: SLV. Cost: 0.5% a year.
The folks from Jersey offer a discount. For now, ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) costs only 0.3% a year.
For Americans, the tax treatment of all these products is the same. Metals, and the funds that hold metals, are considered “collectibles.” Hold for more than 12 months and you pay a maximum 28% federal tax on gains.
Collectibles gains and losses blend on your tax return with gains and losses from other capital assets. If you have a $10,000 loss carryforward from stocks and take a $12,000 long gain in gold, your federal tax is $560.
What’s not to like about gold and silver? The volatility doesn’t bother me. I can stand volatility on something that might be 5% of my investment portfolio and which, moreover, is uncorrelated with those other assets.
I see a different problem. Technologic breakthroughs have lowered the cost of extracting natural gas from the ground, depressing the price of this commodity. The same could happen to gold. Surely the quadrupling of prices in the past decade has inspired prospectors and chemists to find new ways to get the metal.
I have been skeptical of gold for a while on this basis, and the market has proved me wrong so far. Bulls will tell you that gold will steam up to $3,000 before the decade is out. That could easily happen.

.

Buy a commodity ETF

The big one is the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking fund, with $6 billion in hand and 2 million shares a day of trading. The product represents a joint venture between distributors at Invesco’s PowerShares and traders at Deutsche Bank. Ticker: DBC.
The fund is weighted toward energy but also has precious metals, base metals and agricultural commodities. It’s expensive, at 0.85% of assets per year.
The fund owns futures, not ingots, oil barrels and sacks of grain. That makes its tax treatment different.
People who hold futures tally up their paper gains and losses every Dec. 31, recording them as if they were 60% long and 40% short, never mind how long they have been held.
With the rate on long gains 15% through the end of next year, and on short gains 35%, your blended rate is 23%. Under present law these component rates pop up in two years to a maximum of 25% and 44.6%. (I am including the effects of a health care surcharge and a deduction clawback.) That gives you a blended 32.8%.
The next tax bill might have some break for wealthy investors, lowering the 32.8% number, but it will surely leave in place the mark-to-market treatment. That’s a big negative for very long-term holders.
If you are planning to sit on your commodity hedges for 30 years in a taxable account, you are better off with a bullion ETF. Deferral of your tax bill is worth a lot.

.

Buy a commodity ETN

An exchange traded note is a bank IOU with returns pegged to some index. In the case of the iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Index note, the bank is Barclays and the index is one covering a broad basket of metals, fuels and farm products. It’s less energy-intensive than the ETF from PowerShares.
Ticker: DJP. There are $3 billion worth of the notes outstanding, with 400,000 shares a day of activity. Expenses run 0.75% a year.
There is risk here, beyond the pricing of wheat and oil. Your piece of paper is a note from Barclays. If the bank goes under, you don’t get your money back.
Taxation: murky. For now, holders selling after 12 months get a 1099 from the broker reporting the sale as the sale of a capital asset eligible for favorable long-term capital gain rates. But the IRS, which has been silent on the matter, might surface with a contrary view.
The tax collectors could decree that any gains on ETNs are bank “interest,” taxable at steep ordinary-income rates. Some Wall Streeter would fight back. The discussion would then move to a courthouse.
My guess is that Congress will arrange some kind of compromise with a partial grandfathering for present investors. They’ll get the low rate on appreciation up to the point when the bill is enacted, provided they declare their paper profits right away. But it’s just a guess, and the tax treatment could ultimately be a whole lot worse than this.

.

Trade futures

Could you buy direct and save? Instead of buying 1,000 shares of GLD, you set aside $140,000 of interest-bearing collateral and go long one 100-ounce gold future on Comex.
You’ll save the $6 an ounce that is the ETF’s annual holding fee. You’ll pick up a few dollars an ounce by investing the cash. But you’ll have to eat the contango.
Contango is the upward slope of futures prices over time. In effect, the cost of holding bullion is built into futures prices. Recently the October future was quoted at a $4 premium to the April future.
When the dust settles you will have saved little or nothing. But if you were planning to hold for less than a year the futures will save you a bit on taxes. They get that blended 23% rate, while short-term gains in collectibles are taxed at 35%.

.

Amass gold coins

These are fun to hold. But there are costs.
You’ll pay a premium over bullion value when you buy.
Then you’ve got the cost of a shotgun under your bed.
When you sell, the dealer will pay you less than the bullion value. That’s because he doesn’t know whether your bag of coins is in fact a bag of gold-plated tungsten slugs. He’ll incur risk and/or assaying costs.
A round trip in coins is going to cost you 10% or more, says Will Rhind, an executive at ETF Securities.
He may be overstating the problem, but still. That would be 100 times the transaction cost in ETFs.
I classify gold coins held as inflation hedge in the category “Highly Stupid.”

Libya Oil Production, Outage, Exports and Customers

As fighting continues across Libya, the oil industry is trying to assess the output lost from Africa's third-largest producer.

Most estimates suggest around half of the country's 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil capacity is out of action.

Libya's top oil official has estimated oil output has fallen to 700,000-750,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Below are details on Libya's oil production, estimates of lost output, its exports and customers:

Production

OPEC member Libya is the 17th largest oil producer in the world, third-largest producer in Africa and holds the continent's largest crude oil reserves. It normally pumps around 1.6 million bpd, 85 percent of which is exported to Europe and its output is equivalent to about 2 percent of global oil consumption.

Lost Output

Estimates of lost Libyan production have varied widely, from 100,000 to 1.2 million bpd. The International Energy Agency has said about half of Libya's output has been shut.

Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil (NOC) and the country's top oil official under Muammar Gaddafi, said on Wednesday output had dropped to 700,000-750,000 bpd after the flight of most of the foreign workers who make up 10 percent of the Libyan energy industry's workforce.

An oil facility at Zueitina, south of the rebel-held city of Benghazi, has been damaged and was on fire on Friday, Al Jazeera reported, showing a video of smoke rising from an oil plant.

No other damage to Libya's oil infrastructure has yet been reported but the risk of long-term damage is rising.

Libya's battle lines are shifting daily, with rebels in tenuous control of the east and the fighting is increasingly taking place near oil industry infrastructure on the coast.

Fighting has taken place around the oil terminal and export hub town of Brega an oil 800 km (500 miles) east of Tripoli. The town is currently in rebel hands.

Exports

Libya is a net exporter of crude oil and normally sells around 1.3 million bpd into world markets. It has domestic consumption estimated of around 270,000 bpd.

At least 2.4 million barrels of crude was exported earlier this week in four tankers but others were cancelled as supply to terminals dwindled.

At least one tanker left a Libyan terminal empty on Thursday and only a small number of other tankers were waiting to enter Libyan ports.

Oilfields

Most of Libya's oilfields are located in and around the Sirte Basin, which contains around 80 percent of its proven reserves. Oil had reportedly stopped flowing at the Nafoora oilfield in the Sirte basin, according to Al Jazeera, although few details were available.

Other key areas include the Ghadames Basin and Cyrenaica Basin. Oil production from the isolated Murzuq oil field in the desert in the south of the country continues as normal, a spokesman for Spanish operator Repsol said last week.

Ports

AP Libyan oil port activity has slowed dramatically, but most ports are open with tankers leaving and waiting to enter.

Libyan oil port activity has slowed dramatically, but most ports are open with tankers leaving and waiting to enter.

Priority has been given to passenger vessels evacuating civilians and communications with harbour officials and agents has been extremely difficult, trade and shipping sources said.

Libya's oil port operations have been at a virtual standstill due to underproduction and bad weather. But at least two ports, Melittah and Zawiyah, have reopened. Es Sider, the largest oil port in Libya, and Tobruk continue to operate.

London's marine insurance market has added Libya to a list of areas deemed high risk, increasing significantly the cost of sailing to the country's ports.

Libya exports various grades of light crude from six major terminals, five of which are located in the eastern part of the country, now mostly in rebel hands.

Following are the eastern terminals with loading volumes in January, provided by the IEA.

• Es Sider 447,000 bpd
• Marsa El Brega 51,000 bpd
• Ras Lanuf 195,000 bpd
• Tobruk 51,000 bpd
• Zueitina 214,000 bpd
• Zawiyah 199,000 bpd (January exports)
• other unspecified terminals 333,000 bpd

Sanctions

Western countries, the European Union and United Nations have all imposed sanctions on Libya and frozen government assets.

The sanctions have not targeted oil exports but would be likely to affect the ability of the Gaddafi administration to collect payment for oil exports.

Customers

Europe is most affected by the loss of Libyan oil exports. About 32 percent of its oil goes to Italy, 14 percent to Germany, 10 percent to France and China and 5 percent to the United States.

Libyan oil accounts for about 23 percent of Ireland's oil and about 22 percent of Italy's, according to the IEA. Around 13 percent goes east of the Suez Canal to Asia.

Buyers have said the shortage can be covered by alternative sources such as Nigeria and Azerbaijan, which produce similar light, low sulphur crude oils to Libyan oil.

Saudi Arabia is pumping around 9 million bpd and has spare capacity of around 3.5 million bpd, a senior Saudi source said on Monday. The kingdom has promised to fill any supply gap caused by the unrest in Libya although it produces heavier crude with higher sulphur content than Libya.

Libyan Oil Companies
Libya's oil industry is run by the state-owned NOC, which is responsible for exploration and production sharing agreements with international oil companies. Along with smaller subsidiaries, NOC accounts for around 50 percent of the country's oil output.

A unit of NOC, Agoco, has decided to operate separately until Gaddafi is overthrown and Tripoli is free of his rule, an official said.

Foreign Players
Major oil companies operating in Libya include:

• BP [BP  48.56    0.35  (+0.73%)]
• ConocoPhillips [ COP  Loading...      ()]
• Eni [ENI  20.40    0.12  (+0.59%)]
• ExxonMobil [XOM  85.08    -0.74  (-0.86%)]
• Hess [HES  84.24    -0.96  (-1.13%)]
• Marathon [MRO  51.66    -1.00  (-1.9%)]
• Occidental Petroleum [OXY  103.15    -0.26  (-0.25%)]
• OMV [OMVJF  44.337  ---  UNCH  (0)]
• Repsol [REP  33.46    -0.19  (-0.56%)]
• Shell

  Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS'A 72.21  -0.07  -0.1%  NYSE

  Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

  [RDS'A  72.21    -0.07  (-0.1%)]
• Statoil [STO  27.67    0.63  (+2.33%)]
• Wintershall, a unit of BASF [BASFY  84.48    -1.29  (-1.5%)]
  

Refineries and Refined Oil Products

The country has five domestic refineries with a combined capacity of 378,000 barrels a day:

• Azzawiya Oil Refining
• Sarir Refining
• Sirte Oil
• Tobruk Refining
• Ras Lanuf Oil & Gas Processing

The IEA said Libya last year imported about 80,000 bpd of refined oil products and exported about 100,000 barrels of oil products to OECD countries, mostly in Europe.

Summary Box: Gold, silver rally on uncertainty

GOLD, SILVER RALLY: Gold and Silver prices ended the week higher as investors looked for safe assets. Gold for April delivery rose $12.20 to settle at $1,428.60. Silver for May delivery rose $1 to settle at $35.327 an ounce.

JOBS REPORT: Traders also seemed disappointed with the Department of Labor's jobless report, which showed fewer jobs created than some analysts expected.

OIL JUMPS: Oil prices ended the week at a 29-month high, with benchmark oil for March delivery rising $2.51 cents to settle at $104.42 a barrel. Prices climbed as tensions in Libya escalated.

Gold, silver rally on concerns over energy prices

NEW YORK - Gold and silver prices ended the week higher as uncertainly over energy prices and political instability in the Middle East drove investors out of the stock market.

Gold and silver are playing a familiar role, offering what investors consider to be a relatively safe asset during times of turmoil. Continued fighting in Libya, rising oil prices and the threat of inflation all helped fuel a rally in gold and silver.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 88 points Friday despite news that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9 percent in February as the economy added 192,000 jobs. At the same time, oil prices hit their highest level since 2008 and tensions in Libya escalated as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi used tear gas to repel protesters in Tripoli

"The Middle East is still a factor. There are some safe haven (investment) flows going into the precious metals," said Tom Pawlicki, commodities analyst with MF Global Research in Chicago.

Gold for April delivery rose $12.20 to settle at $1,428.60. Silver for May delivery rose $1 to settle at $35.327 an ounce.

Industrial metals fell as economic uncertainty dimmed the outlook for commodities that are used in manufacturing.

Copper fell 0.3 cents to settle at $4.472 a pound. Palladium lost $5 to settle at $809.80 an ounce. Platinum rose $4.90 to $1,837.90 an ounce.

Oil prices ended the week at a 29-month high as fighting in Libya intensified. Most of Libya's oil production has been shut down because of the crisis, and experts say the country's oil fields will be threatened as long as there's no clear leader in charge.

Rebels also attacked the oil port of Ras Lanouf, about 380 miles east of Tripoli. They battled with about 3,000 pro-Gadhafi troops, mainly around the facility's airstrip. As night fell it was not clear who was in control of the complex. Earlier in the week, rebels pushed back Gadhafi forces from a larger oil facility.

The Energy department said this week that petroleum demand has grown for four straight weeks, resulting in unexpected drops in the nation's oil and gasoline supplies last week.

Benchmark oil for March delivery rose $2.51 cents to settle at $104.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil gained 4 cents to settle at $3.0893 per gallon, gasoline rose 2.02 cents to settle at $3.0464 per gallon and natural gas gained 3.1 cents to settle at $3.809 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grains and beans were mixed. In May contracts, wheat gained 8.75 cents to settle at $8.3225 a bushel, corn lost 8.75 cents to settle at $7.28 a bushel and soybeans rose 2 cents to settle at $14.14 a bushel.

Soros: Kebijakan Energi Korup, Sumber Revolusi Timur Tengah

Krisis Timur Tengah telah menyita perhatian para ekonom ternama dunia. Khususnya pasca lonjakan minyak hingga ke level kritis dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. 'Sentilan' dan prediksi dari berbagai tokoh mulai mengemuka perlahan.

Miliuner George Soros juga memandang penting kenaikan harga minyak bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Ia menyerukan para negara produsen untuk mengoptimalkan sumber daya alam yang dimiliki. Semua eksportir seharusnya transparan dan jujur dalam mengelola pendapatan negara. "Di Libya, krisis terjadi akibat penyalahgunaan sumber daya alam oleh pihak penguasa," ujar Soros. Oleh karena itu, Soros mengingatkan Arab Saudi dan Rusia untuk lebih mengedepankan akuntabilitas energi. Sementara Ia juga memprediksi rejim Iran juga akan terdampak oleh arus revolusi Timur Tengah.

Libya memproduksi 1,6 juta barel minyak per hari atau produsen terbesar ke-17 dunia. Kekuasaan pemerintah Khadafi sangat bergantung pada aliran dana masuk ke sektor perminyakan. Ketika ditanya BBC tentang tren revolusi di Afrika dan Middle East, Soros tegas menyatakan bahwa segala konflik di wilayah tersebut akibat dari kebijakan energi menyimpang dari pemerintah, seperti Libya.

"Seharusnya rakyat yang menikmati keuntungan dari hasil bumi negara," tegas Soros. Khadafi memonopoli pendapatan, dan rakyat menentangnya. Kini, Soros memandang Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa perlu mendukung revolusi Timur Tengah secara lebih aktif. Dengan demikian, pemerintahan yang baru bisa lebih kooperatif dengan pihak barat.

Amazon

Terlihat pola inverse head and shoulders di grafik 1 jam AMAZON, dan saat ini pullback sedang terjadi ke area neckline. Jika harga bertahan di atas area neckline ini, maka pergerakan diperkirakan akan kembali naik menguji resistance di 174.50. Tembusnya resistance ini akan mengkonfirmasi ulang pola inverse head and shoulders kita mengincar area 175.96 – 177.77.

Namun demikian, waspadai sinyal bearish yang muncul dari stochastic dan CCI 1 jam, karena jika hal ini diikuti oleh pergerakan ke bawah area neckline, maka pola inverse head and shoulders tersebut akan gagal dan harga berpotensi turun hingga ke area 168.30.

Pertikaian Libya Memanas, Minyak Naik

Harga minyak menta AS melonjak ke level tinggi sejak bulan September 2008 hari Jumat setelah pihak keamanan Libya menyerang demostran di Tripoli dan bentrokan dengan pemberontak di dekat terminal minyak besar Ras Lanuf. Investor fokus pada gangguan suplai lanjutan, mempertimbangkan pemberontakan di Libya dapat menjadi ancaman bagi sektor minyak, begitu juga kemungkinan menyebarnya aksi protes dan mempengaruhi negara produsen minyak lainnya, terutama Arab Saudi.

Aksi Protes di Yaman, Oman dan Bahrain juga memicu ketidakpastian mengenai kawasan setelah menurunkan rezim pemerintahan di Mesir dan Tunisia. "Ada sederetan kenaikan level tinggi dan level rendah, mengindikasikan pasar mempertahankan penguatan,” ucap Michael Fitzpatrick, editor pada surat kabar industri Kilduff Group di New York.

Pejabat Fed Sinyalkan Keinginan Menarik Stimulus

Pejabat di Fed mensinyalkan keinginan mereka untuk mengakhiri program pembelian obligasi seniali 600 milyar dollar pada bulan Juni secara mendadak, melepaskan strategi mereka sebelumnya untuk berangsur menarik intervensi pada pasar obligasi. “Saya tidak melihat adanya kenaikan yang kembali berbelok turun,” ucap Presiden Fed Atlanta Dennis Lockhart kemarin. “Menurutku itu tidak perlu,” ucap Presiden Fed Philadelphia Charles Plosser bulan lalu. Bank Sentral yang akan menggelar pertemuan tanggal 15 Maret sedang menuju babak kedua dari program pembelian obligasi.

Untuk dapat terjadi penghentian sepenuhnya di bulan Juni, mereka harus optimis bahwa perekonomian cukup kuat dalam menghadapi tingkat suku bunga jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi dan menguatnya ekspektasi penarikan stimulus terbesar dalam sejarah Fed, ucap Dan Greenhaus pada Miller Tabak & Co. LLC di New York. “Jika pemulihan dengan sendirinya ini kuat menghadapi tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi, mengapa kita tidak keluar dari stimulus?” ucap Greenhaus, kepala strategis ekonomi Miller Tabak. “Namun, saya masih cemas mengenai kemampuan mereka untuk menarik kebijakan ini tanpa menimbulkan gangguan yang lebih luas.”

Kenaikan Minyak Menekan Saham AS

Saham-saham AS diperdagangkan melemah seiring tingginya harga minyak kembali menghantui para investor, sementara data tenaga kerja bulan Februari masih membantu menahan pesimisme lebih jauh.
Terpantau indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average melemah -39 poin, di level 12198. S&P500 jatuh -7.79 poin di level 1323.60, sementara Nasdaq100 turun -5.50 di level 2366.75.

Penurunan ini terjadi karena para investor masih khawatir atas imbas dair kenaikan harga energi. Minyak mentah berjangka diperdagangkan di $103.65 per barrel seiring kerusuhan Libya masih berlanjut.

Di jangka pendek, harga minyak masih berimbas lebih besar dibanding data tenaga kerja, karena secara keseluruhan level  harga minyak yang lebih nyata-nyata membahayakan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara data tenaga kerja masih perlu menunggu konfirmasi penurunan pengangguran secara konsisten dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.

Minyak Tekan Wall Street

Wall Street melemah meskipun indikator ekonomi tunjukkan berlanjutnya pemulihan ekonomi AS. Non-farm payroll meningkat 192.000 dan tingkat pengangguran turun ke level 8,9% untuk bulan Februari. Pesanan pabrikan juga meningkat 3,1%, lebih tinggi dari estimasi 2,1% dan revisi publikasi Januari 1,4%. "Data tenaga kerja memang bagus, tapi ini telah diantisipasi pasar dan kenaikan juga tidak jauh berbeda dari estimasi," ungkap Hayes Miller, petinggi Baring Asset Management. “Di lain pihak, harga minyak terus meningkat dan ini dapat menjadi ancaman bagi pemulihan ekonomi dunia.”


Libya masih bergejolak seiring pemberontak dan pendukung Gaddafi masih berusaha rebutkan fasilitas minyak strategis. Demonstrasi juga sedang berlangsung di Tripoli; meski reporter dilarang untuk meliput tapi terdengar suara tembakan.  Harga minyak masih bertengger di level tiggi 2 ½ tahun seiring terus berlanjut demonstrasi di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah. Pengunjuk rasa juga mulai terlihat di daerah selaran Arab Saudi, ekportir minyak terbesar dunia. Performa saham berbanding terbalik dengan harga minyak akibat kecemasan tingginya biaya energi dapat bebani kegiatan ekonomi.

Gold vs Ghaddafi

Emas dapat memperoleh di New York, memperpanjang jangka mingguan terpanjang di lebih dari tiga tahun, seperti gejolak di Libya dan inflasi kekhawatiran akan mempercepat meningkatkan permintaan untuk alternatif investasi.

pemimpin oposisi Libya menolak tawaran mediasi oleh Presiden Venezuela Hugo Chavez sebagai pemberontak bersenjata berjuang untuk menguasai pelabuhan minyak di pusat dan jalur pantai timur negara itu. Emas jatuh yang paling dalam enam minggu kemarin setelah mencapai rekor $ 1441 per ounce pada tanggal 2 Maret.

"Situasi di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara benar-benar tegang dan ada banyak ketidakpastian," ujar Bernard Sin, kepala mata uang dan perdagangan logam di MKS Finance SA, pengilang bullion di Jenewa. Meskipun ada sudah "surga" membeli, "permintaan fisik melambat sedikit" karena harga yang lebih tinggi, katanya.

Kontrak emas untuk pengiriman April naik US $ 2.10, atau 0,1 persen menjadi $ 1,418.50 per ounce jam 8:00 di Comex di New York. Mereka naik 0,7 persen minggu ini, ditetapkan untuk uang muka mingguan keenam, jangka terpanjang sejak September 2007. Logam untuk pengiriman segera di London 0,2 persen lebih tinggi pada $ 1,418.28.

Emas jatuh ke $ 1.418 per ounce di pagi hari "memperbaiki" di London, yang digunakan oleh beberapa perusahaan pertambangan untuk menjual produksi, dari $ 1,421.50  

Futures tergelincir 1,5 persen kemarin sebagai Liga Arab mengadakan pembicaraan dengan Venezuela tentang telepon Chavez untuk sebuah kata "komisi mediasi." Oposisi juru bicara Mustafa Gheriani "kami tidak menerima negosiasi" dengan pemimpin Libya Muammar Qaddafi, menurut Associated Press.

Menumbangkan Pemimpin

Kekhawatiran tentang inflasi dan kehinaan mata uang membuat harga emas naik 30 persen tahun lalu untuk kenaikan tahunan ke-10. negara-negara Asia dari Cina ke Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini untuk mengekang kenaikan harga konsumen. Meningkatkan pangan dan harga komoditas telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap kerusuhan yang menggulingkan pemimpin di Tunisia dan Mesir, dengan protes juga meletus di Yaman, Bahrain, Oman, Yordania, Aljazair, Maroko, Iran dan Irak.

Sebagai minyak telah naik diatas $ 100 per barel di New York, mounting tekanan inflasi di Eropa diminta Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet kemarin mengatakan ECB kemungkinan akan menaikkan suku bulan depan untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir tiga tahun.

"Mengapa ada orang yang menjual emas sekarang, dengan situasi Timur Tengah masih sangat tidak pasti, dan semua alasan moneter untuk menahan emas masih utuh?" Ujar Adrian Day, Presiden Adrian Day Asset Management. "Inflasi meningkat secara perlahan."

Perak untuk pengiriman Mei di New York naik 0,3 persen di $ 34,44 per ounce setelah naik ke $ 34,975 pada tanggal 2 Maret, harga tertinggi sejak 7 Maret 1980. Itu tahun berjangka mencapai rekor $ 50,35.

Paladium untuk pengiriman Juni turun 0,6 persen menjadi $ 810,20 per ounce. Ini menyentuh tinggi 10-tahun $ 863,70 pada 22 Februari. Platinum untuk pengiriman April adalah 0,1 persen lebih rendah pada $ 1,830.30 per ounce.

Greenspan Says Government ‘Activism’ Hampering U.S. Recovery

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a surge in U.S. government “activism,” including fiscal stimulus, housing subsidies and new regulations, is holding back the economic recovery.

Increased bond issuance by the Treasury Department crowds out borrowers with the weakest credit ratings, Greenspan said in an article in International Finance, published on the Web today. At least half of the shortfall in companies’ capital spending “can be explained by the shock of vastly greater government- created uncertainties embedded in the competitive, regulatory and financial environments” since the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) in 2008, Greenspan said.

Greenspan’s conclusions fit with his long-held free-market ideology and may aid Republican lawmakers who argue that cutting federal spending now will help spur job growth. Critics including members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission have said Greenspan’s failure to regulate the mortgage market last decade helped fuel the housing bubble whose bursting precipitated the financial crisis.

“Much intervention turns out to hobble markets rather than enhancing them,” said Greenspan, 84, who was appointed Fed chairman by Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1987 and served until 2006. “Any withdrawal of action to allow the economy to heal could restore some, or much, of the dynamic of the pre-crisis decade, without its imbalances.”

Aktivitas Ekonomi AS Meningkat

Aktivitas ekonomi meningkat meskipun AS kini hadapi masalah anggaran dan inflasi, ungkap mantan Ketua Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan kepada CNBC. Ekonomi AS sedang arungi tingginya harga minyak dan ketidakpastian defisit anggaran yang diprediksi mencapai $1,5 triliun tahun ini.


"Momentum pertumbuhan tidak perlu diragukan. Terlepas dari tingginya harga minyak, masalah utang zona-euro, bengkaknya defisit anggaran, ada alasan untuk optimis,” papar Greenspan. Data juga tunjukkan AS ciptakan 192.000 lapangan pekerjaan dan tingkat pengangguran turun ke level 8,9%.


Greenspan menolak berkomentar terhadap cara menarik stimulus Fed sebesar $2,3 triliun dari perekonomian. Tapi, Greenspan merasa Fed bisa mulai menjual sebagian aset yang dibeli. Mantan pimpinan bank sentral AS juga wanti ancaman inflasi mengingat tingginya harga bahan pangan dan energi, meski indeks harga produsen dan output gap belum tunjukkan ancaman tersebut. “Meskipun suku bunga tetap renda, tapi bukan berarti inflasi tidak akan datan. Ketika masyarakat katakan inflasi sangat rendah, jawabannya adalah tunggu,” ungkap Greenspan.

Payrolls Up 192,000, Near Estimates; Rate Falls to 8.9%

U.S. employers hired more workers in February than in any month since May last year and the unemployment rate fell to a near two-year low, the strongest sign yet the recovery has become self-sustaining.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 192,000, the Labor Department said on Friday, in line with expectations. Data for December and January was revised to show 58,000 more jobs created than previously estimated.

The last time payrolls grew so much was last May, when the government's hiring of temporary workers for a census boosted payrolls hugely.

As in previous months, the private sector accounted for all the job gains in February, with an addition of 222,000 positions—the largest gain since April 2010. That was up from 68,000 in January.

The unemployment rate dipped to 8.9 percent, the lowest since April 2009, from 9.0 percent in January as more people reported finding work.

"We have moved into the expansion phase of the economic cycle and the economy is self-sustaining," said Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.

"The numbers confirm that labor market conditions are gradually improving. It is critical that the pace of improvement accelerate over the course of the year given the overall size of the unemployment problem," said Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer of PIMCO in Newport Beach, Calif.

Still, February's bounce in employment after payrolls were depressed by extreme weather in January is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its ultra-easy monetary policies.

The jobless rate has dropped 0.9 percentage point since November. The rate is derived from a survey of households, while the job creation figure comes from a separate survey of employers. The household survey showed more people were employed in February.

Fed Watching Jobless Rate

The unemployment rate is being closely watched by the Fed and could well determine the timing of the U.S. central bank's first interest rate hike. The Fed, which meets on March 15, has held overnight lending rates near zero since December 2008.

Economists believe the Fed will want to see payroll gains in excess of 200,000 for at least six to nine months and a significant decline in unemployment before starting to withdraw its massive monetary support from the economy.

"If we start to add enough jobs, sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, I think the Fed will feel a little more comfortable in easing off the throttle," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pa.

"But right now, the economy is still fragile. There are a number of potholes that we can hit and the Fed is not going to want to act on exiting any time soon."

A surge in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel due to turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa represents a new headwind for the economy.

But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week said higher oil prices were unlikely to steal much from growth or spark broader inflation, as long they are not sustained.

With the jobless rate far from its natural 5-6 percent level and inflation still short of the Fed's target of close to 2 percent, analysts expect the Fed to complete its $600 billion government bond-buying program through June to help the economy.

Employment in the private service sector, which pulled back in January, when much of the United States was hit by heavy snowfall, showed solid growth in February, rising 152,000 from 33,000 jobs in January.

Payrolls in the goods-producing industries saw a weather-related bounce of 70,000, with construction increasing 33,000 after shedding 22,000 jobs in January. Manufacturing, a sector that is powering the recovery, added 33,000 jobs.

Government employment fell 30,000, contracting for a fourth straight month, pulled down by state and local governments, which are under heavy budgetary pressures.

The average work week was steady at 34.2 hours. Average hourly earnings rose one cent.