CURRENCY | RANGE | TREND | RESISTANCE | SUPPORT | BUY | SELL | OBJ | CUT |
EUR/USD | 1.2520-1.2690 | Up | 1.2700 | 1.2520 | 1.2580 | 1.2690 | 1.2520 | |
1.2640 | 1.2460 | |||||||
USD/JPY | 78.90-80.60 | Up | 80.70 | 78.90 | 79.50 | 80.60 | 78.90 | |
80.10 | 78.30 | |||||||
GBP/USD | 1.5600-1.5780 | Up | 1.5780 | 1.5600 | 1.5660 | 1.5780 | 1.5600 | |
1.5720 | 1.5540 | |||||||
USD/CHF | 0.9430-0.9600 | Down | 0.9660 | 0.9480 | 0.9540 | 0.9430 | 0.9600 | |
0.9600 | 0.9420 | |||||||
AUD/USD | 1.0190-1.0360 | Up | 1.0370 | 1.0190 | 1.0250 | 1.0360 | 1.0190 | |
1.0310 | 1.0130 | |||||||
NIKKEI | 9140-9320 | Up | 9330 | 9140 | 9200 | 9320 | 9140 | |
9260 | 9080 | |||||||
HANGSENG | 19290-19470 | Up | 19480 | 19290 | 19350 | 19470 | 19290 | |
19410 | 19230 | |||||||
KOSPI | 248.00-249.80 | Up | 249.90 | 248.00 | 248.60 | 249.80 | 248.00 | |
249.20 | 247.40 | |||||||
GOLD | 1596.40-1618.90 | Up | 1618.90 | 1596.40 | 1603.90 | 1618.90 | 1596.40 | |
1611.40 | 1588.90 |
Rabu, 04 Juli 2012
Technical Analysis, July 4th, 2012
Jumat, 29 Juni 2012
Fundamental Analysis, June 29th, 2012
Hong Kong shares seen weak, poised for monthly index gain
Hong Kong shares could start weaker on Friday ahead of the release of the official China PMI over the weekend and the outcome of a two-day European leaders summit later in the day, but the benchmark index should record a monthly gain.
Data due over the weekend is expected to show that activity at China's factories fell to seven-month lows in June. That would compound market concerns that the economy is stuck in a deeper and longer downturn than anticipated.
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed down 0.8 percent at 19,025.3. It is up 2.1 percent in June.
Seoul shares seen rangebound before EU outcome
Seoul shares will likely be trapped in a narrow range on Friday as investors keep to the sidelines while they await the outcome of the European Union's debt crisis summit.
"Investors are waiting for further developments overnight in Europe and the reaction in Wall Street before making their bets, which will take place after the market closes out the week here, so trading looks to be quiet as the market braces for what might be a busy Monday," said Cho Byung-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.
Italy and Spain held up agreement on measures to promote growth at a European Union summit on Thursday to demand urgent action to bring down their borrowing costs, although EU leaders remain deep divided over the crisis response.
South Korea cut this year's economic growth target on Thursday and unveiled plans to boost public spending by more than $7 billion to shore up Asia's fourth-largest economy in the face of the euro zone crisis.
Nikkei set to rise on end-of-month short-covering
Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to rise on Friday as a spurt of month-end short covering winds back quarterly losses, although early trading may be depressed after EU leaders ended the first day of a summit at loggerheads.
The Nikkei has fallen 12 percent so far in the second quarter, which ends today, wiping out much of the first-quarter's 19.3 percent surge, the biggest first-quarter gain in 24 years.
Market players said the Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,750 to 8,950, potentially dipping initially before gains accelerate into the afternoon session as investors unravel their short bets.
"Hopes for any significant progress at the EU summit have already evaporated, but if they don't even agree on the details of the Spanish bank bailout and hint that the ECB will drop rates, there will be disappointment," said Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities.
Euro zone leaders are to conclude the two-day meeting later on Friday to discuss how to tackle an expanding debt zone crisis. On Thursday, Italian and Spanish leaders refused to sign a growth package until Germany agreed to a short-term plan to reduce the cost of their credit.
Gold down over 1 pct on US healthcare ruling, Europe
Gold fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, hit by worries of an economic slowdown after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling upheld a landmark healthcare law and by fading hopes that a European Union summit will resolve that region's debt crisis.
Bullion investors were frustrated as it is unlikely that additional stimulus will come out of the summit beginning Thursday in Brussels, as European finance officials were working on urgent measures to ease market pressure on Spain and Italy, which are too big to bail out.
Earlier in the session, gold extended losses as crude oil and U.S. equities tumbled after the Supreme Court upheld President Barack Obama's healthcare law, which assesses a financial penalty to individuals who do not obtain health insurance.
The metal has for the most part of this year moved in tandem with riskier assets. In previous years, investors often flocked to gold as a safe haven, driving its price higher in response to economic fears.
Spot gold <XAU=> was down 1.4 percent at $1,553.10 an ounce by 3:16 p.m. EDT (1916 GMT), having earlier hit a four-week low at $1,547.39.
U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled down $28 at $1,550.40.
Euro falls to more than 3-wk low as EU leaders meet
The euro slipped against the dollar for a fourth straight day on Thursday and touched its lowest in more than three weeks as doubts persisted that a summit of European leaders will make progress in resolving the region's deepening debt crisis.
But investors were reluctant to punish the euro further as expectations for the summit were already very low. Any surprise positive development could spark a short squeeze and give the euro zone common currency a lift, analysts said.
A short squeeze is when those who bet against a currency or security are forced to buy to reduce losses when the market moves against their bets.
European Union leaders began the summit on Thursday deeply divided over how to resolve the euro zone's debt crisis.
Many international investors have deserted Spanish and Italian debt, pushing yields to levels that Madrid at least cannot afford for long as it tries to save banks ravaged by a property market collapse and rein in an overshooting deficit.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has previously dismissed pleas from Rome and Madrid for rapid measures to support their bonds.
French President Francois Hollande advocates joint "eurobonds", which would bring down borrowing costs for the weak because the pool of guarantors would include the strongest - principally Germany.
Germany, by contrast, does not want to use its credit rating to support others unless they share control of tax and spending powers first.
On arriving at his first full EU summit after six weeks in office, Hollande said he expected agreement on emergency steps to help euro zone partners whose borrowing costs had reached unsustainable levels.
The euro fell as low as $1.2405 <EUR=> on Reuters data, the weakest since June 4. It was last down 0.2 percent at $1.2449.
Against the yen, the euro slid 0.6 percent to 98.82 yen <EURJPY=>, having earlier fallen to 98.30 yen, the lowest since June 6.
Wall St pares losses late, ends modestly lower
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday but pared back sharp losses late in the session on talk of progress by European leaders in easing the region's debt crisis, while a Supreme Court ruling upholding a landmark healthcare law hit large health insurers.
Markets are especially skittish about any shift in expectations for the euro zone as European Union leaders met on the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels.
Stocks began lower and losses accelerated after a divided U.S. Supreme Court backed the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul law.
The decision surprised many investors who see the law, which requires that most Americans obtain insurance by 2014 or face a penalty, as a hallmark of a business unfriendly administration.
Shares later pared losses, though major insurers such as Aetna Inc <AET.N>, which face more regulation, ended lower. Other companies reliant on Medicaid, such as Wellcare Health Plans Inc <WCG.N> rose as their patient rolls are expected to increase.
The Morgan Stanley healthcare payor index <.HMO> added 0.6 percent. Aetna ended down 2.7 percent to $39.85; Wellcare jumped 8.8 percent to $53.98.
Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N> dropped 2.5 percent to $35.88 after a New York Times report projecting that losses from a recent botched trade could reach $9 billion, more than four times the original estimate. A Reuters report estimated the losses between $4 billion to $6 billion.
U.S.-traded shares of Barclays <BCS.N> slumped 12.1 percent to $10.84 after Britain said it had brought in the fraud squad to investigate possible crimes over attempts to manipulate lending rates, a scandal that is expected to spread to other banks. Lloyds <LYG.N> fell 3.6 percent to $1.87 in New York.
As EU leaders began the two-day summit, finance officials were working on urgent measures to diminish financial market pressure on Spain and Italy, which may prove to be more difficult to bailout than smaller nations in the euro zone
Recent statements from German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been at odds with those of other European leaders on how to deal with the crisis, underscoring the difficulties in reaching common ground.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 24.75 points, or 0.20 percent, to 12,602.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 2.81 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,329.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 25.83 points, or 0.90 percent, to 2,849.49.
Oil Drops to Eight-Month Low on U.S., German Unemployment
Oil fell to an eight-month low as unemployment data from the U.S. and Germany spurred concern about the economic recovery as European Union leaders met to address the debt crisis.
Prices dropped 3.1 percent after the Labor Department reported U.S. applications for unemployment benefits hovered near the highest level of 2012 last week and the prior reading was revised up. German unemployment rose more than economists forecast in June. Oil also fell as the Supreme Court upheld the core of President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul.
Crude for August delivery declined $2.52 to $77.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since October. Futures have fallen 25 percent this quarter, heading for the biggest drop since the final three months of 2008.
Brent oil for August settlement decreased $2.14, or 2.3 percent, to $91.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It has retreated 26 percent since March 30.
Brent is set to recover from its worst quarter since 2008 as a European Union ban on Iranian oil takes effect, central banks act to protect growth and on speculation OPEC will curb some of its excess supply.
Source : Reuters
Hong Kong shares could start weaker on Friday ahead of the release of the official China PMI over the weekend and the outcome of a two-day European leaders summit later in the day, but the benchmark index should record a monthly gain.
Data due over the weekend is expected to show that activity at China's factories fell to seven-month lows in June. That would compound market concerns that the economy is stuck in a deeper and longer downturn than anticipated.
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed down 0.8 percent at 19,025.3. It is up 2.1 percent in June.
Seoul shares seen rangebound before EU outcome
Seoul shares will likely be trapped in a narrow range on Friday as investors keep to the sidelines while they await the outcome of the European Union's debt crisis summit.
"Investors are waiting for further developments overnight in Europe and the reaction in Wall Street before making their bets, which will take place after the market closes out the week here, so trading looks to be quiet as the market braces for what might be a busy Monday," said Cho Byung-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.
Italy and Spain held up agreement on measures to promote growth at a European Union summit on Thursday to demand urgent action to bring down their borrowing costs, although EU leaders remain deep divided over the crisis response.
South Korea cut this year's economic growth target on Thursday and unveiled plans to boost public spending by more than $7 billion to shore up Asia's fourth-largest economy in the face of the euro zone crisis.
Nikkei set to rise on end-of-month short-covering
Japan's Nikkei share average is likely to rise on Friday as a spurt of month-end short covering winds back quarterly losses, although early trading may be depressed after EU leaders ended the first day of a summit at loggerheads.
The Nikkei has fallen 12 percent so far in the second quarter, which ends today, wiping out much of the first-quarter's 19.3 percent surge, the biggest first-quarter gain in 24 years.
Market players said the Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,750 to 8,950, potentially dipping initially before gains accelerate into the afternoon session as investors unravel their short bets.
"Hopes for any significant progress at the EU summit have already evaporated, but if they don't even agree on the details of the Spanish bank bailout and hint that the ECB will drop rates, there will be disappointment," said Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities.
Euro zone leaders are to conclude the two-day meeting later on Friday to discuss how to tackle an expanding debt zone crisis. On Thursday, Italian and Spanish leaders refused to sign a growth package until Germany agreed to a short-term plan to reduce the cost of their credit.
Gold down over 1 pct on US healthcare ruling, Europe
Gold fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, hit by worries of an economic slowdown after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling upheld a landmark healthcare law and by fading hopes that a European Union summit will resolve that region's debt crisis.
Bullion investors were frustrated as it is unlikely that additional stimulus will come out of the summit beginning Thursday in Brussels, as European finance officials were working on urgent measures to ease market pressure on Spain and Italy, which are too big to bail out.
Earlier in the session, gold extended losses as crude oil and U.S. equities tumbled after the Supreme Court upheld President Barack Obama's healthcare law, which assesses a financial penalty to individuals who do not obtain health insurance.
The metal has for the most part of this year moved in tandem with riskier assets. In previous years, investors often flocked to gold as a safe haven, driving its price higher in response to economic fears.
Spot gold <XAU=> was down 1.4 percent at $1,553.10 an ounce by 3:16 p.m. EDT (1916 GMT), having earlier hit a four-week low at $1,547.39.
U.S. gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery settled down $28 at $1,550.40.
Euro falls to more than 3-wk low as EU leaders meet
The euro slipped against the dollar for a fourth straight day on Thursday and touched its lowest in more than three weeks as doubts persisted that a summit of European leaders will make progress in resolving the region's deepening debt crisis.
But investors were reluctant to punish the euro further as expectations for the summit were already very low. Any surprise positive development could spark a short squeeze and give the euro zone common currency a lift, analysts said.
A short squeeze is when those who bet against a currency or security are forced to buy to reduce losses when the market moves against their bets.
European Union leaders began the summit on Thursday deeply divided over how to resolve the euro zone's debt crisis.
Many international investors have deserted Spanish and Italian debt, pushing yields to levels that Madrid at least cannot afford for long as it tries to save banks ravaged by a property market collapse and rein in an overshooting deficit.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has previously dismissed pleas from Rome and Madrid for rapid measures to support their bonds.
French President Francois Hollande advocates joint "eurobonds", which would bring down borrowing costs for the weak because the pool of guarantors would include the strongest - principally Germany.
Germany, by contrast, does not want to use its credit rating to support others unless they share control of tax and spending powers first.
On arriving at his first full EU summit after six weeks in office, Hollande said he expected agreement on emergency steps to help euro zone partners whose borrowing costs had reached unsustainable levels.
The euro fell as low as $1.2405 <EUR=> on Reuters data, the weakest since June 4. It was last down 0.2 percent at $1.2449.
Against the yen, the euro slid 0.6 percent to 98.82 yen <EURJPY=>, having earlier fallen to 98.30 yen, the lowest since June 6.
Wall St pares losses late, ends modestly lower
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday but pared back sharp losses late in the session on talk of progress by European leaders in easing the region's debt crisis, while a Supreme Court ruling upholding a landmark healthcare law hit large health insurers.
Markets are especially skittish about any shift in expectations for the euro zone as European Union leaders met on the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels.
Stocks began lower and losses accelerated after a divided U.S. Supreme Court backed the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul law.
The decision surprised many investors who see the law, which requires that most Americans obtain insurance by 2014 or face a penalty, as a hallmark of a business unfriendly administration.
Shares later pared losses, though major insurers such as Aetna Inc <AET.N>, which face more regulation, ended lower. Other companies reliant on Medicaid, such as Wellcare Health Plans Inc <WCG.N> rose as their patient rolls are expected to increase.
The Morgan Stanley healthcare payor index <.HMO> added 0.6 percent. Aetna ended down 2.7 percent to $39.85; Wellcare jumped 8.8 percent to $53.98.
Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co <JPM.N> dropped 2.5 percent to $35.88 after a New York Times report projecting that losses from a recent botched trade could reach $9 billion, more than four times the original estimate. A Reuters report estimated the losses between $4 billion to $6 billion.
U.S.-traded shares of Barclays <BCS.N> slumped 12.1 percent to $10.84 after Britain said it had brought in the fraud squad to investigate possible crimes over attempts to manipulate lending rates, a scandal that is expected to spread to other banks. Lloyds <LYG.N> fell 3.6 percent to $1.87 in New York.
As EU leaders began the two-day summit, finance officials were working on urgent measures to diminish financial market pressure on Spain and Italy, which may prove to be more difficult to bailout than smaller nations in the euro zone
Recent statements from German Chancellor Angela Merkel have been at odds with those of other European leaders on how to deal with the crisis, underscoring the difficulties in reaching common ground.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 24.75 points, or 0.20 percent, to 12,602.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 2.81 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,329.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 25.83 points, or 0.90 percent, to 2,849.49.
Oil Drops to Eight-Month Low on U.S., German Unemployment
Oil fell to an eight-month low as unemployment data from the U.S. and Germany spurred concern about the economic recovery as European Union leaders met to address the debt crisis.
Prices dropped 3.1 percent after the Labor Department reported U.S. applications for unemployment benefits hovered near the highest level of 2012 last week and the prior reading was revised up. German unemployment rose more than economists forecast in June. Oil also fell as the Supreme Court upheld the core of President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul.
Crude for August delivery declined $2.52 to $77.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since October. Futures have fallen 25 percent this quarter, heading for the biggest drop since the final three months of 2008.
Brent oil for August settlement decreased $2.14, or 2.3 percent, to $91.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It has retreated 26 percent since March 30.
Brent is set to recover from its worst quarter since 2008 as a European Union ban on Iranian oil takes effect, central banks act to protect growth and on speculation OPEC will curb some of its excess supply.
Source : Reuters
Technical Analysis, June 29th, 2012
|
CURRENCY
|
RANGE
|
TREND
|
RESISTANCE
|
SUPPORT
|
BUY
|
SELL
|
OBJ
|
CUT
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.2350-1.2560
|
Down
|
1.2560
|
1.2420
|
|
1.2490
|
1.2350
|
1.2560
|
|
1.2630
|
1.2350
|
|||||||
|
USD/JPY
|
78.60-80.40
|
Up
|
79.80
|
78.60
|
79.20
|
|
80.40
|
78.60
|
|
80.40
|
78.00
|
|||||||
|
GBP/USD
|
1.5420-1.5630
|
Down
|
1.5630
|
1.5490
|
|
1.5560
|
1.5420
|
1.5630
|
|
1.5700
|
1.5420
|
|||||||
|
USD/CHF
|
0.9550-0.9760
|
Up
|
0.9690
|
0.9550
|
0.9620
|
|
0.9760
|
0.9550
|
|
0.9760
|
0.9480
|
|||||||
|
AUD/USD
|
0.9930-1.0140
|
Down
|
1.0140
|
1.0000
|
|
1.0070
|
0.9930
|
1.0140
|
|
1.0210
|
0.9930
|
|||||||
|
NIKKEI
|
8730-8940
|
Up
|
8870
|
8730
|
8800
|
|
8940
|
8730
|
|
8940
|
8660
|
|||||||
|
HANGSENG
|
18830-19190
|
Up
|
19070
|
18830
|
18950
|
|
19190
|
18830
|
|
19190
|
18710
|
|||||||
|
KOSPI
|
239.40-242.70
|
Up
|
241.60
|
239.40
|
240.50
|
|
242.70
|
239.40
|
|
242.70
|
238.30
|
|||||||
|
GOLD
|
1541.90-1566.70
|
Down
|
1566.70
|
1550.20
|
|
1558.40
|
1541.90
|
1566.70
|
|
1574.90
|
1541.90
|
Selasa, 26 Juni 2012
Pemimpin Eropa Tidak Memecahkan Masalah Minggu Ini
Euro
diperdagangkan di bawah tekanan pada minggu ini di belakang
keprihatinan atas situasi di zona eropa dan spekulasi dalam pertemuan
berikutnya para pemimpin eropa yang akan diadakan minggu ini. Pasar
tidak memiliki kepercayaan pada solusi yang tepat atau datangnya berita
besar dari para pemimpin di KTT ke-19.Ini adalah "Minggu penting untuk zona eropa," kata Nouriel Roubini, Kepala Ekonomi dari Roubini Global, "baik perjanjian pada integrasi penuh (fiskal, perbankan, politik, pertumbuhan) atau percepatan proses dis-integrasi. "Hanya jika para pemimpin Uni Eropa berkomitmen untuk penyatuan sepenuhnya (fiskal / perbankan / politik)," lanjut Roubini.
Soros Ingin Eropa Segera Bertindak
Miliuner George Soros anjurkan Eropa untuk bentuk lembaga yang akan membeli obligasi pemerintah Italia dan Spanyol
dan memperingatkan jika Eropa gagal hasilkan solusi pekan ini maka euro
akan hancur. “Pimpinan Uni Eropa harus membuat Badan Fiskal Eropa yang
akan membeli obligasi pemerintah jika Italia dan Spanyol berhasil
jalankan target penghematan,” ujar Soros ketika diwawancara oleh
Bloomberg TV. “Pendanaan dapat bersumber dari penjualan obligasi Eropa,
yang akan memiliki yield rendah karena didukung oleh setiap anggota
zona-euro.”
Perancis dan Italia telah mendesak Jerman untuk ambil tindakan tegas demi akhiri krisis utang
setelah biaya pinjaman obligasi pemerintah Spanyol bertenor 10-tahun
mencapai level kritis 7%. Namun, pemimpin Uni Eropa belum capai kata
sepakat mengenai solusi terbaik jelang pertemuan 28-29 Juni mendatang.
“Eropa kini mulai kehabisan waktu untuk tunjukan kepada investor
bahwa Eropa bisa selamatkan euro,” tutur Soros. "Ada perbedaan pendapat.
Kecuali jika perbedaan tersebut dapat diselesaikan dalam tiga hari maka
Eropa bisa terpuruk. Bursa saham
dan obligasi pemerintah Eropa akan bereaksi negatif jika Eropa gagal
umumkan rencana pekan ini untuk mengurangi tekanan terhadap Spanyol dan
Italia.”
Pertumbuhan Asia di Pundak China
Negeri tirai bambu akan menjadi motor penggerak ekonomi Asia sepanjang sisa tahun ini.Perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi tidak bisa
dipungkiri sudah terjadi di daratan China. Namun hal itu tidak akan
bertahan lama karena negara perekonomian terbesar Asia ini akan bangkit
di paruh ke-dua. Demikian pendapat ekonom HSBC hari ini.
Pertumbuhan China dan India memang
menyentuh titik terendah pada periode April hingga Juni di level 7,8%
dan 5,3%. Namun laju ekonomi kedua negara diyakini akan lebih cepat pada
kuartal III nanti menjadi 8,5% dan 6%. "Untuk China, kebijakan yang
lebih longgar akan menaikkan permintaan dalam negeri walaupun ekspor ke
wilayah barat masih lesu," Frederic Neumann, Kepala Riset Ekonomi Asia
HSBC pada laporan kuartalan hari ini.
HSBC memprediksi China memangkas
persyaratan Giro Wajib Minimum sebanyak 200 basis poin dan menurunkan
suku bunga 25 basis poin lagi. Terbuka peluang bagi pemerintah untuk
menurunkan juga pungutan pajak dan investasi langsung pada sektor
perumahan serta infrastruktur. "Kombinasi antara kebijakan fiskal dan
moneter akan menggenjot permintaan, kepercayaan usaha dan nilai tambah
lainnya," ulas HSBC. Oleh karena itu, Neumann yakin Asia tidak akan
kolaps secara ekonomi karena peran China yang lebih signifikan di
semester II.
Jika proyeksi HSBC terbukti maka kinerja
ekonomi China nantinya akan identik dengan apa yang dialami oleh Korea
Selatan. Negeri ginseng mengekspor lebih banyak produk ke wilayahnya
sendiri ketimbang ke Amerika dan Eropa sejak krisis hutang melanda.
Adapun faktor lain yang makin membuka jalan bagi perbaikan roda bisnis
adalah penurunan harga minyak dunia. Hal ini sejatinya akan memperkuat
daya beli konsumen dan mengurangi beban produksi. Harga minyak yang
lebih rendah juga memberi kesempatan bagi India dan Indonesia untuk
memangkas subsidi dan mendukung pertumbuhan via stimulus baru.
Fundamental Analysis, June 22nd, 2012
Dollar rallies on weak data, Fed disappointment
The U.S. dollar posted its biggest rise in more than three months against major currencies on Thursday as weak economic data around the globe further unnerved investors disappointed with the Federal Reserve's decision to take only a modest step to bolster the economy.
Currencies of commodity-linked economies including Australia, New Zealand and Canada sold off as investors dumped riskier investments and parked money in the relative safety of the dollar. U.S. jobless claims indicated the labor market is still struggling, while signs of softening in U.S. manufacturing and weakness in global output heightened the aversion to risk.
The data comes a day after the U.S. central bank expanded a program to keep long-term borrowing costs down and said it was ready to do more if needed, but disappointed some investors who had hoped for another round of bond buying. The euro dropped as low as $1.2546 <EUR=> on Reuters data, far off Wednesday's high of $1.2744. It was last at $1.2562, down 1.1 percent, on track for its largest daily loss in more than three months.
Adding to weakness in the euro was data showing Germany's private sector shrank in June for the second month running, with manufacturing activity hitting a three-year low. The weak euro zone data kept alive speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates soon, offering investors a fresh excuse to sell the euro.
Wall St suffers worst loss in three weeks
U.S. stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits. Shares of energy and materials companies led declines as commodity prices fell. U.S. crude futures <CLc1> slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October and the S&P energy sector index <.GSPE> lost 4 percent. Investors said weak overseas demand was responsible for the decline in those industries.
Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness. Stocks had enjoyed a two-week run that brought the S&P up more than 7 percent on hopes for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted, while weaker overseas demand slowed growth by U.S. factories.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 251.35 points, or 1.96 percent, at 12,573.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 30.19 points, or 2.23 percent, at 1,325.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 71.36 points, or 2.44 percent, at 2,859.09.
The day's decline was the worst since June 1 when the S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent. Softening data globally lifted hopes of central bank action to support the economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it would extend one monetary stimulus program and said it was ready to do more to help economic growth if necessary.
Gold drops 2.5 pct after data stirs deflation fears
Gold fell 2.5 percent on Thursday, nearly wiping out this year's gains as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown and disappointment over a lack of aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus dampened bullion's inflation-hedge appeal. The metal posted its biggest one-day drop since Feb. 29. Its selloff started o n Wednesday when the Fed ended a policy meeting without launching a new round of monetary easing but instead opted to lengthen its "Operation Twist" program aimed at lowering long-term interest rates.
Deflation worries pummelled precious metals after reports showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity, a shrinking Chinese factory sector and slowing business activity across the euro zone. The data added to fears that Europe's debt crisis and slower growth in the United States and Asia would cause downturns around the globe.
Spot gold <XAU=> fell 2.5 percent to $1,566 an ounce by 3:05 p.m. EDT (1905 GMT), having earlier hit a low of $1,563.88, within 10 cents to turning negative for the year compared with the 2011 close at $1,563.80 on Dec. 30. U.S. COMEX gold futures <GCQ2> for August delivery were down $50.20 an ounce at $1,565.60, with trading volume in line with the 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Oil Futures Drop Below $80 for First Time in Eight Months
Oil in New York tumbled below $80 a barrel and Brent crude fell under $90 as reports signaling a global economic slowdown added to concern that demand will slow amid rising supplies. Futures dropped 4 percent, the most this year, as manufacturing slumped in the U.S., China and Europe, applications for U.S. unemployment benefits exceeded estimates and sales of existing homes were lower than expected. Oil stockpiles rose last week to the most since 1990, the Energy Department reported yesterday.
Crude futures for August delivery fell $3.25 to $78.20 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since
Oct. 4. The price is down 21 percent in 2012. Brent oil for August
decreased $3.46, or 3.7 percent, to $89.23 a barrel on the London-based
ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest settlement since December 2010.
The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate settled at
$11.03, the lowest level since January.
Fears about the economy are making people very leery. The jobless claims, the manufacturing data and all the economic data are coming together to push almost everything down.
Nikkei set to fall on global growth concerns
Japan's Nikkei share average is expected to open lower on Friday, as data showing U.S. manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in 11 months in June added to concerns about weaker growth in Europe and China.
The Nikkei <.N225> was likely to trade between 8,650 and 8,750, strategists said, after Nikkei futures in Chicago <0#NIY:> closed at 8,740 on Thursday, down 0.9 percent from the Osaka <JNIc1> close of 8,820.
A weaker yen against the dollar may provide some support to Japanese equities. Japanese financial stocks may also be in focus after ratings agency Moody's cut the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks, including JPMorgan <JPM.N>, Bank of America <BAC.N>, HSBC <HSBA.L> and Credit Suisse <CSGN.VX>, in an expected move that was part of a broad review of major financial institutions. On Thursday, the Nikkei gained 0.8 percent to 8,824.07, hitting a five-week closing high. The benchmark is up 3 percent so far this week, but is still down 12.5 percent on the quarter, weighed by concerns about a deepening euro zone debt crisis and slowing growth in the United States and China. The broader Topix <.TOPX> index advanced 0.9 percent to 753.96, its highest close since May 14.
Seoul shares seen inching down on soft U.S. data
Seoul shares are likely to edge down on Friday as U.S. stocks suffered their worst loss in three weeks the day before due to growing signs of a slowdown in manufacturing growth worldwide. Surveys showed on Thursday that weaker overseas demand slowed U.S. factory growth for 11 months running, while business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row.
The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) <.KS11> fell 0.79 percent to close at 1,889.15 points on Thursday.
Hong Kong shares seen lower, weekly gain in doubt
Hong Kong shares could end the week lower on Friday, tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street after global manufacturing data disappointed, with the losses poised to wipe out weekly gains for benchmark indices. Global stocks fell 2 percent and Brent crude oil ended at its lowest in 18 months on Thursday as data showing Chinese, European and U.S. manufacturing activity slowing further underscored worries about weaker global growth.
In a measure of negative market sentiment, South African coal miner LontohCoal has delayed its $1 billion Hong Kong initial public offering due to difficult market conditions, extending the time frame for the listing to the end of February next year, its chief executive said. On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index <.HSI> slid 1.3 percent to 19,265.1, its biggest one-day loss since a 2 percent drop on June 4. It is up 0.2 percent on the week to date. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.9 percent and South Korea's Kospi <.KS11> was down 1.7 percent by 0033 GMT.
Source : Reuters
Langganan:
Komentar (Atom)