Gold inches up on weaker dollar, Greece bailout hopes

SINGAPORE, Spot gold edged higher onTuesday, supported by a weaker dollar as the euro 

rallied on hopes that Greece's parliament will pass an austerity plan toavoid a sovereign debt

default. 

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,500.25 an ounce, off a five-week low of $1,490.30 in the 

    previous session. Spot gold has posted losses for three straight trading days. 

 * U.S. gold GCcv1 also rose 0.3 percent to $1,501.10. 

 * A weaker dollar lent support for bullion prices, as the euro extended gains from the previous 

    session on expectations that Greece's parliament will approve a fiscal austerity package  

    needed for the country to get emergency aid. 

 * Greece's parliament began on Monday to debate the unpopular austerity plan, and is 

   expected to vote on it on Wednesday.  

 * The U.S economy continued to show signs of deceleration, as consumer spending failed to 

    rise in May, breaking 10 straight months of gains.  

 MARKET NEWS 

 * U.S. stocks rose from three days of losses on Monday, led by banks after news of more 

    favorable capital requirements and optimism over Greece's austerity plan.

 * U.S. crude oil rose above $91 a barrel on Tuesday as the euro rallied against the dollar. 

Gold slides below $1,500/oz as dollar strengthens

, Gold prices eased on Monday, briefly touching near six-week lows in early trade, as the euro suffered from concerns over the outlook for euro zone debt, and amid broad-based selling of commodities.

Spot gold was bid at $1,495.06 an ounce at 1338 GMT, against $1,499.53 late in New York on Friday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCv1 fell $4.70 an ounce to $1,496.20.

Simmering worries over this week's Greek parliamentary vote on austerity measures and its impact on a European Union bailout package are pressuring the euro lower versus the dollar. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-priced assets.

"Having discounted all the current market fundamentals, gold seems to be waiting for fresh market cues for the immediate move," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services.

"Technically charts are pointing at further weakness and this is reflected by the excessive strength portrayed by the U.S. dollar over the last couple of days," he added. "Oil under $90 a barrel could further bearishness to the market."

Gold fell as low as $1,490.90 an ounce in early trade as oil and industrial metals extended last week's hefty drop. U.S. crude oil futures fell towards $90 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it would release emergency reserves, and copper, lead and nickel prices also slipped.

Commodities have come under pressure from gains in the dollar and concerns that euro zone debt problems could cause further ructions in the currency markets.

The euro fell after Moody's said Greek banks have lost about 8 percent of their private-sector customer deposits so far this year. The ratings agency warned that those institutions would face severe cash shortage if outflows mount to 35 percent of their deposits.

A Greek minister warned on Monday of "catastrophe" if parliament blocked a 28 billion-euro ($40 billion) package of tax increases and spending cuts in a parliamentary ballot expected on Wednesday.

Germany's deputy finance minister said on Monday the euro is in danger of losing credibility.

COMMODITIES SOLD HEAVILY

Worries over sovereign risk contagion on the euro zone were a key factor pushing gold prices to record highs earlier this year, though they were not enough to prevent the precious metal being caught up in heavy selling of commodities last week.

"We do not expect the price to retreat much further," Commerzbank said in a note. "This week sees the debate and vote on the austerity measures in Greece, with ratification a condition for additional financial support. It is still uncertain whether parliament will give its approval."

Money managers raised bullish bets in COMEX gold futures and options to the highest level since the week of April 24 in the week ended June 21, as bullion climbed to within $20 of its record, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Speculators in silver futures and options also upped their net long positions, as safe-haven demand for precious metals grew in response to disappointing economic data from the United States and persistent concerns surrounding Europe's debt crisis.

Physical gold demand, especially from Asian buyers, picked up as prices fell towards multi-month lows, but this is unlikely to put the brakes on gold's correction for long, traders said.

"There has been good demand on the dips and I think that will continue, but that is not going to be enough ion its own right, if people are in liquidation mode, to reverse a downward trend," said Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.

Silver was bid at $33.63 an ounce against $34.26, reflecting losses in other industrial metals. Platinum was at $1,671.49 an ounce against $1,672.99, and palladium at $718.47 against $726.80.

Gold : Masih tetap dengan rentan bearish jika tak tembus 1511

 spot emas terpantau masih tertekan dibawah $1,500 di hari Selasa, seiring dengan Euro yang menguat terhadap dollar menjelang voting di parlemen Yunani guna membahas kebijakan pengetatan sehingga mendorong minat dan selera investor terhadap aset-aset beresiko.

Namun secara teknikal harga Emas nampak kesulitan untuk menembus ke atas resisten $1506 (Fibonacci 61.8%), padahal penembusan di atas area ini dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan momentum bullish menuju $1520 atau bahkan area $1532.

 

Sementara level support terdekat ada pada area $1494 dan $1490, break ke bawah area ini dapat memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menuju area $1485.

 

Secara keseluruhan selama harga berada di bawah area $1506, bias harga spot emas masih “bearish”.

 

 

USD mulai mendapat tekanan

Emas bergerak naik hari Selasa (28/06). Harga didukung oleh pelemahan dollar AS di tengah rally euro. Optimisme bailout Yunani memperkuat nilai tukar mata uang tunggal.

Spot emas menguat 0.3% ke $1,500.25 per ons atau naik dari level rendah 5-pekan ($1,490.30) pada sesi terdahulu. Spot emas telah mencetak penurunan selama 3 hari perdagangan. Kontrak emas AS juga naik 0.3% ke $1,501.10.

China Bisa Jadi Yunani Baru

 perhatian pasar tertuju ke Yunani selama lebih dari 1 tahun terakhir. Meskipun Yunani pada akhirnya bisa mencapai solusi terbaik, bukan berarti kecemasan hutang global telah usai. Di samping Amerika Serikat (AS) negara China ditengarai sedang menghadapi masalah serupa: hutang besar!

Beberapa pengamat pasar memiliki pandangan khusus terhadap kesehatan moneter China. Jim Antos, Analis Bank Mizuho Securities Asia, mengatakan dalam skala 1 sampai 10, krisis hutang Yunani memiliki nilai 10 dan China 8. "Saya berpandangan negatif terhadap bank-bank China, khususnya soal neraca pinjaman masing-masing bank," ujar Antos kepada CNBC hari Senin (27/06). 

 

Patut diketahui bahwa volume pinjaman bank China naik dua kali lipat sejak Desember 2007 hingga Mei 2011. Antos menyebut hal yang terjadi di China sebagai 'contoh baku dari gelembung kredit'. Pertumbuhan rerata pinjaman memang sudah menyusut sebanyak 15% dalam dua tahun terakhir, namun besaran jumlah pinjaman masih mencemaskan. Angka pinjaman perbankan China tercatat sebesar $6,500 per kapita pada 2010, sementara GDP per kapita sendiri hanya $4,400. Menurut Antos, rasio tersebut adalah 'tidak aman'. 

 

"Pinjaman yang memasuki maturitas pada 2-3 tahun mendatang rawan memicu gejolak," ujar Antos. Ia meyakini bahwa rasio kredit macet di China, yang saat ini terpatok sebesar 1%, akan naik secara cepat. Beberapa analis bahkan memperkirakan angka Non-Performing Loan (NPL) bisa mencapai 10-15% hanya dalam beberapa tahun. "NPL dapat melonjak dua kali lipat dalam 3 tahun," tutupnya. Jika bukan tahun ini, maka ancaman kredit akan terbukti nyata pada tahun depan atau dua tahun lagi.

Crude Oil: masih Bearish

masih tertekan dan berada dalam bearish channel seperti yang 

terlihat pada grafik 4-jam diatas. Saat ini minyak cederung membidik 

area support dikisaran 89.69 dimana pecahnya level support 

tersebut dapat memicu terjadinya pergerakan bearish lanjutan 

menuju area lower channel atau sekitar area support dikisaran 

88.28. Namun waspadai pergerakan rebound yang mungkin 

terjadi menuju area 91.97 hingga area upper channel jika support 

tersebut mampu bertahan. 

Gold analsys : Pemulihan Emas Uji Resistance 1506.76

Emas kembali terdepresiasi hingga menyentuh area $ 1491.00 /troy ounce

pada sesi perdaganganhari ini. Secara teknikal jika support pada 1491.00 

break, hal tersebut berpotensi memicu terjadinyapergerakan bearish lanjutan 

menuju area 1475.24. Sementara itu, kondisi indikator teknikal berupa 

CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini sudah dalam kondisi jenuh beli 

berpotensi memicu terjadinya rebound menuju area resistance dikisaran 1

506.76 jika level support tersebut mampu bertahan. 

Sterling Analysis : Tren Bearish

Secara umum masih berada dalam trend bearish dan saat ini 

tengah menguji area support dikisaran 1.5936. Pecahnya level 

support tersebut membuka peluang terjadinya pergerakan bearish 

lanjutan menuju area 1.5860. Sementara itu, waspadai rebound 

yang mungkin terjadi menuju area resistance dikisaran 1.6060 .

hingga area bearish trendline jika support yang saat ini sedang diuji 

mampu bertahan. Peluang rebound juga diperkuat oleh kondisi CCI 

dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini berada dalam area oversold.

Euro Analysis

Saat ini masih cenderung bearish membidik area support dikisaran 1.4072. 

Pecahnya level support tersebut berpotensi memicu terjadinya 

pergerakan bearish lanjutan menuju area 1.3985.Namun sebaliknya 

kondisi CCI dan juga Stochastic yang saat ini tengah mendekati area 

oversold memungkinkan terjadinya rebound menuju area resistance dikisaran 

1.4158 hingga 1.4256 jika support dikisaran 1.4072 mampu bertahan.

Sentimen Bearish Naungi Sterling

 telah menghabiskan 3 sesi perdagangan merosot seiring penguatan yang berpihak pada dollar AS dan Sterling kembali dalam tekanan saat dibuka minggu ini.

“Sterling telah melewati level 1.6055 dan saat ini memberikan konfirmasi kuat pergerakan wave (g) di grafik telah berakhir”, demikian komentar dari Nikolov dari Trend Recognition.

 

“Untuk pergerakan turunnya, target berikutnya adalah 1.5680 tetapi kami perkirakan kejatuhan akan menuju 1.5260 sebelum terjadinya kepulihan, Akan tetapi masih bearish”, ditambahkannya.

 

Saat ini Sterling berada di area 1.5925, 35 pips dibawah harga pembukaan. Untuk pergerakan turunnya, Valeria Bednarik, memberikan level support di 1.5920 dan 1.5870. Untuk pergerakan naiknya, level resistance berada di level 1.5990, 1.6025 dan 1.6070. 

Gold to Reach $5,000 Due to Supply Shortage

An exhaustive report by Standard Chartered predicts that gold  will more than triple to $5,000 an ounce because of a lack of supply, not just because of a surge in demand that most bullion bugs cite in their bullish calls.

“There are very few large gold mines set to commence operation in the next five years,” said Standard’s analyst Yan Chen in a report Monday. “The limited new supply comes at a time when central banks have turned from being net sellers to significant net buyers of gold. The result, in our view, will be a gold market in deficit, even assuming flat growth in demand. With the supply-demand balance so out of kilter, we see the gold price potentially going to US$5,000/oz.”

The London-based firm is among the first to focus on the supply-side of the gold equation amid the many bullish forecasts out there on the metal. After analyzing 345 gold mines and 30 copper/base metal gold mines around the globe, the team estimates annual gold production will be just 3.6 percent over the next five years.

“They make a pretty compelling argument, especially when it comes to mine supply,” said Brian Kelly, head of Brian Kelly Capital and a ‘Fast Money’ trader. “Most analysis focuses on demand from China and India, which of course can disappear as quickly as it materialized.”

But that’s unlikely to happen over the next five years as central banks look to further diversify their holdings of U.S. dollars and as emerging countries buy more gold in the aftermath of the global paper currency crisis.

“Currently, only 1.8 percent of China’s foreign exchange reserves is in gold,” wrote Chen and the Standard team in the 68-page report. “If the country were to bring this proportion in line with the global average of 11 percent, it would have to buy 6,000 more tonnes of gold, equivalent to more than 2 years of gold production.”

The bold call is among the most bullish out there. In a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch survey of global money managers released Tuesday, just about a third of money managers felt gold was overvalued. However, that is the highest reading in that survey in more than a year.

Standard Chartered recommends that clients buy shares of smaller gold miners to get the most upside from its prediction but also said clients could buy physical gold and gold exchange-traded funds.

Gold flat; focus on Greek debt crisis

 27 (Reuters) - Spot gold traded flat on
Monday after staging its worst week since early May with a 2.5
percent slide, as investors continued to watch Greece's
sovereign debt crisis ahead of a key parliament vote later in
the week. 

 FUNDAMENTALS

 * Spot gold was little changed at $1,499.99 an ounce
by 0042 GMT, after falling 3 percent in the past two sessions. 

 * U.S. gold GCcv1 was flat at $1,500.90. 

 * Greece's parliament begins on Monday to debate a deeply
unpopular austerity plan which international lenders are
demanding to see approved this week to avert the threat of
bankruptcy. 

 * Money managers raised bullish bets in COMEX gold to the
highest level since the week of April 24 last week, before
prices tumbled about $60 in three sessions, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed Friday.
  

 * Spot silver fell to $33.88, its lowest in more than
a month, before regaining some lost ground to $34.06. 

 * U.S. silver SIcv1 fell 1.6 percent to $34.10. 

 * For the top stories on metals and other news, click
 , or  

 MARKET NEWS 

 * Wall Street dropped for a third day on Friday on worries
about the Italian banking sector and Greece's debt crisis, but
the S&P 500 managed to hold its 200-day moving average in a sign
buyers still see value.

 * The dollar index rose to its highest since June 16
on Monday while the euro languished, as investors await a
decision by Greece's parliament on passage of austerity
measures.  

 DATA/EVENTS 
 1030  EZ        ECB's Stark delivers speech
 1230  U.S.      Personal income mm           May   
 1230  U.S.      Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index, May
 1430  U.S.      Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing index, June
 

 PRICES 
 Precious metals prices 0042 GMT
 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg  Volume
 Spot Gold        1499.99    0.44   +0.03      5.67
 Spot Silver        34.06   -0.20   -0.58     10.37
 Spot Platinum    1677.49    4.50   +0.27     -5.09
 Spot Palladium    724.72   -2.08   -0.29     -9.35
 TOCOM Gold       3903.00  -43.00   -1.09      4.67      45449
 TOCOM Platinum   4417.00  -59.00   -1.32     -5.94       8404
 TOCOM Silver       88.60   -2.60   -2.85      9.38        562
 TOCOM Palladium  1892.00  -59.00   -3.02     -9.78        179
 COMEX GOLD AUG1  1500.90    0.00   +0.00      5.59       3985
 COMEX SILVER JUL1  34.10   -0.54   -1.55     10.21       2299
 Euro/Dollar       1.4116
 Dollar/Yen         80.75
 TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
 COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months
 

Gold Settles Near $1,500 as Dollar Rises

Gold slumped for a second day Friday to conclude its worst week in eight, crashing through key technical supports, as investors shed riskier assets and bought the dollar on heightened concerns over Greek debt.

With less than a week until the end of the Federal Reserve's second quantitative easing program, bullion's three percent fall over the past two days has raised questions about whether its years-long boom has stalled. After reaching a high of $1,575.79 on May 2, gold has struggled.

Spot prices ended the week below their 50-day moving average for the first time since February, they ruptured a trendline support stemming back to a January low, and they broke out of a six-week sideways pattern to the downside.

All of those technical chart patterns were seen as warning signs by many investors.

"Once the 50-day average is broken on a weekly basis, it a first sign of weakness and that the trend may be changing," said Adam Sarhan at Sarhan Capital.

Spot gold [XAU=  Loading...      ()   ] was last bid around $1,501 an ounce having earlier fallen to a month low at $1,498.16. It was down about 2.5 percent for the week.

U.S. August gold futures [GCCV1  Loading...      ()   ] settled down $19.60, a 1.30 percent drop, at $1,500.90. It set a $1,498.50 and $1,526.50 range. Volume above 170,000 lots was about 20 percent below its 30-day average, but up from weak volume in recent sessions.

The dollar gained almost 1 percent for the week versus the euro on worries that Greece's parliament will not approve a package of austerity measures next week. The U.S. currency also strengthened after the Federal Reserve, earlier this week, offered no hope for additional monetary support.

"Gold's decline has to do with the strength of the dollar, and since the equity market is resuming its decline, that's what's working counter to gold prices at the moment," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at broker-dealer Janney Montgomery Scott, which manages $54 billion in assets.

Silver [XAG=  Loading...      ()   ] was down 2 percent at $34.55 an ounce, lifting the gold/silver ratio — the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold — to near a one-month high at 43.5. The ratio's increase highlights gold's outperformance relative to silver.

Technical Weakness

Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose, said, gold's pullback could have more room to the downside, with next major support in area of May's lows between $1,488 and $1,471 a ton.

"The dollar could rally up to its 200-day moving average, and that will not help gold advance right now," he said. Worries about Greece defaulting on its massive debt, a development that would roil markets if the country's parliament does not approve austerity measures and concerns over some Italian banks dragged global stock markets sharply lower for a second day.

"You have prices of crude oil, commodities and the stock market again under pressure. And, you have a strong dollar. To think that gold is going to rally, it's just not going to happen," said independent investor Dennis Gartman.

"Every market that has the term 'risk' associated with it, everybody wants out," he said.

With the second round of Fed quantitative easing (QE2) ending in June, some investors question whether risk assets could rise further. Gold has thrived on the expectation of an extended period of low U.S. interest rates, and that placed non-yielding bullion in a better position to compete for investor cash against stocks or bonds.

Among platinum group metals, platinum was last down 0.8 percent at $1,680.24 an ounce, while palladium was down 1.8 percent at $729.25.

Analisa Pekan ini

USD/JPY

Pasangan mata uang ini terpantau kuat pada kisaran 80.00 pekan lalu. Pergerakan terjebak dalam range sempit.  Saya melihat tidak akan ada gebrakan berarti sampai terjadi perubahan fundamental dari otoritas moneter Jepang. Investor menjauhi transaksi akibat cemas dengan intervensi tiba-tiba dari bank sentral. Resisten atas tetap di area 82.00.

EUR/USD

Euro bergerak sideways dengan penguatan kecil meski Uni Eropa meloloskan bailout Yunani. Saya perkirakan EUR/USD konsolidasi pekan ini antara 1.4050-1.4450 sampai traders meyakini adanya breakout tren baru. Saya sarankan traders untuk bertransaksi dari titik paling ekstrim, dengan memakai level-level yang Kami sebutkan tadi sebagai kontrol resiko.

GBP/USD

Poundsterling bersiap anjlok lebih dalam jika tren penurunan memecah 1.5930 pekan ini. Bila tidak, tren kemungkinan berbalik jadi koreksi kecil ke kisaran 1.6100, di tengah pelemahan jangka panjang. Seandainya menembus support 1.5930, GBP/USD bisa membidik area 1.5750, sebelum short-covering terlihat.

GOLD

Harga emas mengalami koreksi dalam hingga ke bawah $1500 sebelum akhir pekan di tengah aksi jual global. Pekan ini, Saya memprediksi minat beli di kisaran 1480.00 seandainya tren terus melemah. Efek domino dari aksi jual rawan berlanjut untuk 1-3 hari ke depan, sebelum akhirnya hargarebound. Resisten terletak di level 1525.00.

CRUDE OIL

Minyak mentah WTI mencoba pulih ke atas 95.00 di tengah pekan. Namun akhirnya anjlok lagi karena laporan persediaan dirilis naik. Dari sisi teknikal, Saya melihat minyak cukup terdukung di level saat ini (sekitar 89.50) dan siap pulih ke 94.00 dalam satu pekan mendatang. Tetapi keberlanjutan aksi jual di awal pekan dapat memicu penurunan harga dan mengincar siklus rendah di area 83.50. Long traders tidak boleh bersikukuh menahan posisi merugi karena minyak rentan anjlok di tengah ketidakpastian!

Emas Menguat

Emas bergerak naik di perdagangan elektronik hari Senin, seiring investor kembali membeli logam mulia walau terjadi aksi jual di komoditi lainnya.

Kontrak emas untuk bulan Agustus bertambah $3.50 atau 0.2% ke level $1,504.40 per ons di divisi COMEX, bagian dari NYMEX selama sesi perdagangan Asia.

 

Perak justru melemah, dengan kontrak perak yang turun 55 sen atau 1.6% ke $34.09 per ons.

 

Emas terkena aksi jual bersama komoditi lainnya minggu lalu setelah IEA mengatakan akan merilis persediaan minyak mentah ke pasar guna menutup kekosongan produksi dari Libya.

Bank Sentral Cina Longgarkan Likuditas

 Repo pemerintah Cina naik menjadi 8.8% pada 22 Juni. Pada hari yang sama, bank sentral juga mengumumkan keputusannya guna menunda penerbitan obligasi, dalam sebuah penawaran untuk menambah likuiditas kedalam pasar setelah tindakan lanjutkan oleh para pembuat kebijakan telah menyebabkan bank-bank komerisl mengalami tekanan hutang.

Hal menjadi penanda ke 3 tahun ini bahwa bank sentral menunda penerbitan obligasi. Sebaliknya, hanya sekali pemerintah melakukan tindakan serupa pada 2007 dan 2008.

 

Keputusan pemerintah untuk melonggarkan kendali likuiditas terjadi setelah terjadinya beberapa kebijakan pengetatan moneter.

USD Bebani Emas

USD dan kekhawatiran negara zona Eropa mengenai kemungkinan penurunan peringkat pada 16  bank Italia oleh Moody menyeret pelemahan emas dan perak.

Harga emas merosot di tengah banyaknya penjualan yang dilakukan trader untuk menambah uang tunai dan meminimalisir kerugian. Spot emas di 1,499.80/ons, turun $2.50 dari sesi penutupan. EUR/USD di 1.4113 dari 1.4192 sebelumnya, namun di atas level rendah di 1.4101. Spot perak di $34.09/ons, turun 23 sen dari sesi penutupan sebelumnya.

Gold di level low

 jatuh pada sesi perdagangan AS untuk kedua harinya secara berturut (24/6). Janji para pemimpin Uni Eropa untuk menstabilkan kondisi perekonomian berhasil kurangi permintaan safe heaven emas.

Para pemimpin Uni Eropa berjanji untuk mencegah default Yunani selama Perdana Menteri George Papandreou berupaya mendorong pemulihan ekonomi melalui paket pemotongan anggaran minggu depan. 

 

Emas juga tertekan oleh penguatan dollar. "Penguatan dollar biasanya negatif untuk emas," kata Peter Fertig, pemilik Kuantitatif Komoditi Research Ltd di Hainburg, Jerman. 

 

Emas untuk pengiriman Agustus turun $ 4.9 atau 0.3 persen ke $1515.60 per troy ons di Comex pada jam 09.51 waktu New York. Saat ini emas diperdagangan di $1508.25 mendekati harga terendahnya hari ini pada 1506.30 

Iklim Bisnis Jerman Pulihkan Euro

 pulih di sesi London, jauhi level rendah harian 1.4196, setelah data tunjukan membaiknya iklim bisnis Jerman. Ifo iklim bisnis meningkat ke level 114.5, lebih tinggi dari prediksi 113.6, dan publikasi sebelumnya 114.2. Meski, investor masih cemaskan kapan pemberian bailout berikutnya untuk Yunani, namun pimpinan Uni Eropa telah berjanji berikan bantuan jika parlemen loloskan kebijakan pemangkasan fiskal pada voting 28 Juni mendatang.
Dari sisi teknikal, euro terperangkap di dalam pola triangle, yang mungkin akan batasi pergerakan mata uang tunggal Eropa tersebut hingga menembus salah satu batas triangle. 1.4344, harga tertinggi 20 Mei, akan menjadi resisten yang jika dilewati dapat buka peluang pengujian 1.4383, level Fibonacci 50% dari kejatuhan 7 Juni hingga 16 Juni. 1.4220, level Fibonacci 23.6%, akan menjadi support, dimana kejatuhan lebih lanjut akan uji 1.4161, level Fibonacci 23.6%.

Emas Jatuh Terkait Meredanya Ketakutan Inflasi

 keok searah dengan pelemahan komoditi minyak mentah paska dilepasnya stok cadangan strategis AS dan ditambah ekspektasi investor atas lemahnya inflasi ditengah pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat.

 

Penguatan dollar, terhadap Euro juga menjadi katalis negatif bagi Emas. Terpantau kontrak Emas untuk pengantaran bulan Agustus diperdagangkan di level 1,518.30 atau turun -0.17%.

 

Pasar komoditi cukup stabil sejauh ini setelah melemah tajam dan berpotensi terjadi bargain hunting karena masih banyak ketidakpastian mengenai Yunani. Meskipun market mendapat kelegaan dari deal EU-IMF untuk program fiskal terbaru Yunani, namun kucuran dana bailout kedua masih harus menunggu hasil voting parlemen Eropa untuk program kenaikan pajak.

 

Berdasarkan studi teknikal, harga Emas masih dalam fase konsolidasi di kisaran 1515 – 1548. Bias intraday masih netral dan dibutuhkan penembusan konsisten di salah satu range tersebut untuk mendapatkan arah yang lebih clear. Anjlok dibawah area 1515 dapat memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut mengincar 1505 di jangka pendek.

Dampak Krisis Eropa terhadap Inggris

 hutang Eropa telah berdampak luas pada stabilitas perekonomian Inggris. Sistem keuangan negara Ratu Elizabeth tersebut harus dibangun melalui bank dengan modal besar dan usaha yang sungguh-sungguh, demikian kata pejabat Bank of England (BOE) (24/6).

Pejabat BOE  menilai bahwa sektor perbankan di beberapa negara zona Eropa rentan terhadap ancaman yang paling langsung terhadap perekonomian Inggris. 

 

Pada kesempatan yang sama Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB), Jean Claude Trichet mengatakan, "Pekan ini adalah ancaman yang paling serius terhadap stabilitas keuangan negara-negara Uni Eropa."

 

Pekan kemarin Pemimpin Bank of England (BOE), Mervyn King telah bertemu dengan Perdana Menteri Inggris (David Cameron) untuk membahas peraturan perbankan demi mencegah krisis keuangan lebih lanjut.

Positif Yunani Dongkrak Bursa Eropa

 saham Eropa menguat tajam hari Jumat akibat data positif ifo Jerman menambah sentimen positif setelah isu penyebaran krisis utang Eropa ternyata tidak separah yang diduga sebelumnya.

 

Fundamental ekonomi yang kuat telah membentengi ekonomi Jerman dari fase pelambatan, meskipun hingga saat ini pejabat zona Eropa masih mendiskusikan solusi mengatasi krisis utang sovereign Yunani.

 

Terpantau indeks saham FTSE London naik 0.88% ke level 5,684.50, dan indeks DAX Jerman naik 0.96% ke level 7,237.00, sementara CAC 40 Prancis menguat 0.96% di level 3,821.00.

Yunani Membuka Harapan, Bursa Eropa Positif

 saham Eropa mencatat penguatan pada sesi perdagangan terakhir pekan ini, dipicu meningkatnya sentimen investor menyusul tercapainya kesepakatan antara Yunani dan IMF terkait rincian dan rencana langkah-langkah penghematan 5 tahun, yang akan menjamin kepastian dicairkannya bailout ke-2 yang sangat dibutuhkan negara Mediterania itu dan meredam kekhawatirandefault.

Indeks Eurostoxx 50 naik hampir 1%, sementara indeks DAX Jerman dan CAC Perancis masing-masing memperoleh 0,89% dan 0,84%. Di Inggris, indeks FTSE bergerak 0,9% lebih tinggi dalam 2 jam pertama perdagangan.

 

"Pergerakan pasar akhir-akhir ini telah dikendalikan oleh perkembangan seputar hutang Yunani dan isu-isu penyebaran krisis, dan tercapainya kesepakatan antara Yunani dan Uni Eropa/IMF telah direspon pasar dengan positif," kata Ian Richards, analis saham Eropa dari RBS. "Namun pasar nampaknya masih menantikan voting pada 28 Juni mendatang, mengingat agenda tersebut berpotensi menghadirkan resiko dalam jangka pendek."

Telah Lahir Pemimpinan Baru Bank Sentral Eropa

 Bank Italia, Mario Draghi ditunjuk menjadi Kepala Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) menggantikan pendahulunya Jean Claude Trichet di Brussels (24/6). Pergantian posisi tersebut berlangsung pada pertemuan puncak negara-negara Uni Eropa.

 

Tugas pertama telah menanti sang Pemimpin Bank sentral Eropa (ECB) yang baru.  Mario Draghi harus membuat kesepakatan tentang program bailout bagi penyelamatan ekonomi Yunani. Kesepakatan itu diselimuti oleh manuver politik yang sama yang menandai berakhirnya masa kepemimpinan Presiden ECB yang lama, Jean-Claude Trichet.

 

Para pakar ekonomi dari Massachusetts Institute of Technology menyatakan bahwa Draghi didukung oleh menteri keuangan. Dia adalah satu-satunya kandidat yang dianggap cakap dalam menyelesaikan persoalan ekonomi di zona Eropa.

Emas masih rentan Bearish

Emas terus diperdagangkan pada teritori negatif dalam sesi perdagangan Eropa hari Jumat, dengan investor masih enggan mengambil posisi pasca kejatuhan harga Emas kemarin menyusul pemberitaan bahwa Yunani telah mencapai kesepakatan dengan Uni Eropa dan IMF terkait rincian dari rencana penghematan 5 tahun.

Spot Emas sempat tergelincir sekitar $5 hingga mencetak harga terendah harian di $1516 sebelum kemudian kembali diperdagangkan sedikit naik. Berdasarkan grafik, level support terdekat dapat ditemukan pada area $1516 dan $1510, sementara resistensi berada di area $1525 dan $1527.

 

"Bullion telah berhasil menerobos hingga di bawah support kunci teknikal pada MA 50-hari, meskipun masih terhambat oleh beberapa support kuat yang terdapat di antara $1500 dan $1520, area yang masih mampu bertahan dalam beberapa minggu terakhir," kata broker ANZ.

 

Menteri Keuangan Yunani yang baru, Evangelos Venizelos, telah setuju dengan rincian langkah-langkah untuk kenaikan pajak tambahan dan pemangkasan belanja guna menutup kesenjangan pendanaan yang mencapai sebesar €3,8 milyar. Langkah-langkah penghematan baru tersebut diharapkan akan dapat memenangkan voting di parlemen minggu depan guna memastikan pencairan paket bailout ke-2 senilai €120 milyar. 

Gold : berada di support

tertekan hingga ke area support 1512.80. Stochastic dan CCI yang 

memberikan sinyal bullish memunculkan ekspektasi pullback ke area

trendline atau resistance di 1535.30. Jika support di 1512.80 tembus 

maka harga emas berpotensi turun hingga ke area 1502.18. Waspadai

akselerasi ke atas 1535.30karena berpotensi memicu momentum 

bullish hingga 1547.18.

Factors to watch on June 24

previous session, supported by a softer dollar versus the euro after Greece won approval for a five-year austerity plan.

PRICES * Spot gold was bid at $1,522.20 an ounce at 0633 GMT compared with $1,520.70 late in New York on Thursday.

* Silver was at $35.07 from $35.25.

* Platinum was at $1,709.99 from $1,694.50

* Palladium was at $748.22 from $742.35.

DATA/EVENTS

* German IFO business climate index for June, 0800 GMT

* German IFO current conditions index for June, 0800 GMT

* German IFO expectations for June, 0800 GMT

* European Central Bank Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks at the University of Malaga, 1000 GMT

* Bank of England publishes financial stability report, London

* IMF'S Gerd Schwartz and EBRD's Thomas Mirow attend regional forum, Ljubljana.

* U.S. GDP - Q1 final estimate, 1230 GMT

* U.S. durable goods for May, 1230 GMT

* U.S. corporate profits Q1 final, 1230 GMT

* U.S. treasury's Jeffrey Goldstein gives keynote address, Washington, 1230 GMT

* U.S. treasury secretary Timothy Geithner event, Manchester, New Hampshire, 1600 GMT

MARKET NEWS

* Chinese stocks led Asian equity markets higher on Friday on hopes inflation will ease soon, though the euro's overnight rally fizzled, with Greece's deal with international lenders seen as only a short-term fix for a long-term crisis.

* The euro held steady against the dollar as a short-covering bounce stalled on lingering uncertainty about the fate of Greece's austerity plan, with signs of money market strains also seen as a potential downside risk for the single currency.

* Brent crude rebounded towards $109 on Friday from its lowest settlement since February as traders gauged how much supply would reach the market from an IEA-coordinated release of emergency oil stockpiles.

* European stock index futures pointed to gains for equities on Friday, as Greece said it will push through additional austerity measures after clinching an agreement for financial aid from international lenders.

* U.S. stocks closed way off session lows on Thursday on news Greece agreed to a five-year austerity plan, but lingering economic uncertainty ultimately drove the S&P 500 lower, keeping a downward trend in place.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Holdings of the largest silver-backed exchange-traded-fund, New York's iShares Silver Trust gained 0.30 percent from Wednesday to Thursday, while, the largest gold-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged for the same period.

TECHNICALS

* Gold support was at $1,514 an ounce and resistance at $1,531. The 14-day RSI was at 41.04.

* Silver support was at $34.65 an ounce and resistance at $35.75. The 14-day RSI was at 37.09.

* Platinum support was at $1,666 a tonne and resistance at $1,770. The 14-day RSI was at 29.88

Gold gains after slide, sees worst week since May rout

, June 24 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Friday from
losses of as much as 2 percent in the previous session,
supported by a softer dollar versus the euro after Greece won approval for a five-year austerity plan.

 But after the steep losses on Thursday bullion is headed for its worst week since a commodity-wide rout in early May. 

 The euro rebounded in Asia following news Greece has agreed
with international lenders on an austerity plan that would bring
it one step closer to securing much-needed financial aid. 
  

 But with fears of a potential Greek debt default still in
the air and the global economy in a patchy state, gold will
remain well supported, analysts say.

 "We still are in very uncertain times and it's likely to
continue until we see greater signs of economic growth globally,
particularly in the United States, and we start to see the
European debt situation ease," said Darren Heathcote, head of
trading at Investec Australia. 

 "While those problems remain we are likely to see gold well
supported. Investors flee to gold in times of trouble as they
have done consistently for a very long time." 

 Spot gold rose $2.55 to $1,523.25 an ounce by 0523
GMT, after its biggest slide in more than a month on Thursday. 

 Bullion is down around 1 percent for the week, its steepest
since losing more than 4 percent during the commodity rout in
early May.

 Silver was little changed at $35.20 an ounce.
Platinum climbed more than 1 percent to $1,713.99 and
palladium rose 0.7 percent to $747.47. 

 Gold has dropped more than 3 percent since hitting a record
high of $1,575.79 on May 2, but Investec's Heathcote said it
could test that level if the Greek debt situation worsens again. 

 The Greek government's austerity plan, including deep
spending cuts and more tax hikes, must still be passed by the
parliament at a vote next week. 

 News that industrialised nations would release oil from
emergency stockpiles for the third time in history in a bid to
tame high energy prices that have been weighing on the global
economy could cap gold's gains, but should boost prices of
industrial metals. 

 The news sent oil prices tumbling to four-month lows on
Thursday but prices have regained some footing on Friday as
market players began gauging how much supply would reach the
market. 

 "Lower oil prices have the potential to boost economic
growth, so you might expect some of the metals and other
commodities used in manufacturing would look at this as a rather
bullish move," said Heathcote. 

 Bullion investors are also paying close attention to
discussions over the U.S. debt limit after budget talks
collapsed on Thursday when Republican negotiators walked out,
casting doubt on Washington's ability to reach a deal that would
allow the government to keep borrowing and avoid a debt default.
  

 Also on the radar is the final estimate for U.S.
first-quarter GDP data, due later on Friday, following a recent
spate of weak economic numbers. 

 Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new
claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, suggesting
little improvement in the labor market this month after hiring
stumbled badly in May.  
 
 Precious metals price at 0523 GMT
 Metal             Last    Change  Pct chg  YTD pct chg  Turnover
 Spot Gold        1523.25    2.55   +0.17      7.31
 Spot Silver        35.20   -0.05   -0.14     14.06
 Spot Platinum    1713.99   19.49   +1.15     -3.03
 Spot Palladium    747.47    5.12   +0.69     -6.51
 TOCOM Gold       3950.00  -53.00   -1.32      5.93        74899
 TOCOM Platinum   4497.00  -15.00   -0.33     -4.24        17308
 TOCOM Silver       91.40   -1.90   -2.04     12.84          832
 TOCOM Palladium  1942.00  -25.00   -1.27     -7.39          249
 Euro/Dollar       1.4269
 Dollar/Yen         80.46
 
 TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.

PRECIOUS-Gold off lows after 2 pct drop, eyes dollar

TOKYO, June 24 (Reuters) - Gold was off lows on Friday as
the dollar eased with a bounce in the euro on news Greece has
reached a deal with international lenders on an austerity plan,
but traders were keeping an eye on the currency market. 

 FUNDAMENTALS 

 * Spot gold was up 0.2 percent from late New York
levels at $1,524.26 an ounce as of 0011 GMT, after falling 2
percent on Thursday for its biggest one-day drop in over a
month, after disappointing U.S. jobless claims data hit investor
risk appetite and boosted the dollar. Investors sold gold to
cover steep losses in the equity, grain and crude oil markets.

 * Silver was steady at $35.27 an ounce, after falling
more than 4 percent on Thursday.

 * U.S. Republicans walked out of budget talks on
Thursday, setting up a showdown between President Barack Obama
and House Speaker John Boehner over how to extend U.S. borrowing
and avoid a looming debt default. 

 * Greece won the consent of a team of EU-IMF inspectors for
its new five-year austerity plan on Thursday after committing to
an additional round of tax rises and spending cuts, sources with
knowledge of the talks said. 

 * Holdings of the largest silver-backed exchange-traded-fund
(ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust gained 0.30 percent
from Wednesday to Thursday, while the largest gold-backed ETF,
New York's SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged for the same
period.  

Pengangguran AS Suram, Perusahaan Ragu Berekspansi

 orang Amerika yang mengajukan klaim untuk mendapatkan tunjangan pengangguran meningkat di atas perkiraan pada pekan lalu, yang mengindikasikan berkurangnya kepercayaan perusahaan-perusahaan di AS dalam melakukan ekspansi.

Aplikasi untuk mendapatkan tunjangan pengangguran meningkat sebanyak 9.000 dalam pekan yang berakhir pada 18 Juni lalu menjadi 429.000, menurut data yang dirilis Departemen Tenaga Kerja hari ini. Angka tersebut melampaui rata-rata perkiraan analis dalam sebuah survey dengan kenaikan tipis ke 415.000.

 

Klaim pengangguran mulai membengkak setelah terjatuh ke level terendah dalam hampir 3 tahun pada akhir Februari, seiring sektor bisnis yang nampaknya masih enggan dalam menambah pekerja sebelum permintaan benar-benar menguat.

 

"Klaim pengangguran tidak beranjak kemana-mana, sehingga tidak mendukung pertumbuhan pekerjaan," kata Derek Holt, seorang ekonom pada Scotia Capital Inc. di Toronto. "Mungkin kita akan melewatkan seluruh musim panas dengan beberapa nomor pekerjaan yang cukup lemah sebelum dapat mengharapkan sebuah kenaikan di tahun ini." 

Euro rawan Bearish

Euro terpantau bergerak stabil namun masih di kisaran koreksinya di hari Jumat setelah kemarin anjlok ke rekor terendah terhadap Franc Swiss, dan turun tajam terhadap Dollar A.S.

Kondisi ini terutama setelah pemimpin oposisi Yunani, Antonis Samaras, pada hari Kamis mengatakan bahwa satu-satunya cara bagi pemerintah Yunani untuk membayar hutangnya adalah dengan merubah kebijakan fiskal saat ini. Pernyataan tersebut mengindikasikan langkah pengehematan Yunani yang dapat saja ditolak Parlemen pada voting minggu depan.

 

Kecemasan terhadap pelemahan Euro makin bertambah pasca komentar gubernur ECB Jean-Claude Trichet yang memperingatkan bahaya-nya krisis hutang zona Eropa, sehingga menimbulkan pertanyaan apakah ECB nantinya akan meneruskan siklus pengetatan moneternya atau tidak.

 

Dan penguatan Euro kemungkinan kambali akan terbatas mengingat masih adanya hambatan yang harus dihadapi Yunani termasuk persetujuan parlemen atas kebijakan pengetatan yang dijadwalkan tanggal 28 Juni nanti.

Euro analisa : Sentuh Area 1.4125, Uji Resistance di 1.4283

 juga mengalami tekanan yang sigifikan hingga menyentuh area 1.4125. Pullback terjadi menguji

area resistance di 1.4283 yang merupakan level 50% Fibonacci dan kondisi overbought yang diperlihatkan

stochastic dan CCI kemungkinan akan diikuti oleh pergerakan turun menuju 1.4200. Waspadai pecahnya 

resistance di 1.4283 karena hal tersebut berpotensi memperpanjang pullback

hingga 1.4366.

Sterling mungkin akan terus merosot

Sterling terhimpit di area koreksinya di akhir pekan ini setelah kemarin terperosok ke jurang level rendah hampir dalam 3-bulan terakhir terhadap Dollar AS dan menembus di bawah level kunci $1.6000.

Terpuruknya Sterling ini terutama akibat spekulasi bahwa Bank of England (BoE) mungkin akan menambah stimulus-nya lebih besar lagi ke masyarakat. Dan sikap BoE ini kontras dengan kebijakan Federal Reserve AS, yang pada hari Rabu lalu tidak memberikan sinyal kelanjutan program stimulus ekonominya yang akan berakhir bulan ini.

 

Outlook yang suram dari bank sentral dalam pertemuan bulan Juni telah memicu aksi jual Pound ditengah spekulasi pelemahan ekonomi akan menahan BoE untuk menaikkan suku bunga dari level rendah 0.5% hingga tahun 2012.

 

Secara teknikal setelah pecah level support kunci 1.6000, bukan tidak mungkin bagi mata uang ini untuk merosot lebih lanjut. Apalagi Pound begitu sensitif terhadap sinyal pelemahan ekonomi, dan data ekonomi yang buruk berpotensi menekan Pound turun ke kisaran $1.5350, level terendah sejak bulan Desember tahun silam.

 

Namun untuk hari ini titik support berada di level $1.5960 dan $1.5900, sementara bila GBP konstan bergerak diatas level penting $1.6000, harga kemungkinan sedikit terangkat ke area $1.6080 hingga $1.6750.

Sterling analisa : Tertekan Sampai 1.5937, Segera Uji 1.6042

 tertekan selama perdagangan kemarin hingga ke area support di 1.5937 namun saat ini terjadi

pergerakan pullback menguji area resistance di 1.6042. Kondisi stochastic dan CCI yang overbought

menaikkan ekspektasi pergerakan bearish untuk menguji kembali area support di 1.5937.

Waspadai pecahnya resistance di 1.6042, jika hal itu terjadi maka kemungkinan pullback akan 

berlanjut hingga ke resistance selanjutnya di 1.6098.